Climate Change Mitigation Potentials of on Grid-connected Power-to-X Fuels and Advanced Biofuels for the European Maritime Transport

This study proposes a country-based life-cycle assessment (LCA) of several conversion pathways related 10 to both on grid-connected Power-to-X (PtX) fuels and advanced biofuel production for maritime transport 11 in Europe. We estimate the biomass resource availability (both agricultural and forest residues and 12 second-generation energy crops from abandoned cropland), electricity mix, and a future-oriented 13 prospective LCA to assess how future climate change mitigation policies influence the results. Our results 14 indicate that the potential of PtX fuels to achieve well-to-wake greenhouse gas intensities lower than 15 those of fossil fuels is limited to countries with a carbon intensity of the electricity mix below 100 gCO2eq kWh-1 16 . The more ambitious FuelEU Maritime goal could be achieved with PtX only if connected to electricity sources below ca. 17 gCO2eq kWh-1 17 which can become possible for most of the national 18 electricity mix in Europe by 2050 if renewable energy sources will become deployed at large scales. For 19 drop-in and hydrogen-based biofuels, biomass residues have a higher potential to reduce emissions than 20 dedicated energy crops. In Europe, the potentials of energy supply from all renewable and low-carbon 21 fuels (RLFs) range from 32-149% of the current annual fuel consumption in European maritime transport. 22 The full deployment of RLFs with carbon capture and storage technologies could mitigate up to 184% of 23 the current well-to-wake shipping emissions in Europe. Overall, our study highlights how the strategic use 24 of both hydrogen-based biofuels and PtX fuels can contribute to the climate mitigation targetsfor present 25 and future scenarios of European maritime transport.