Publications
Techno-economic Analysis of Technologies for Decarbonizing Low- and Medium-Temperature Industrial Heat
Dec 2025
Publication
Decarbonizing industrial heat is critical for achieving climate targets. This study evaluates the economic viability of technologies for decarbonizing industrial heat in Europe through a techno-economic analysis. High-temperature heat pumps (HTHPs) and electric hydrogen and biomass boilers are compared in terms of levelized cost of heat (LCOH) under various scenarios including the impact of thermal storage leveraging dynamic electricity prices. In scenarios for the year 2030 we show that HTHPs leveraging free excess heat achieve LCOH values at least 30% to 60% lower than hydrogen boilers and up to 37% lower than biomass boilers. Integrating daily thermal storage reduces LCOH by up to 15% for heat pumps and 27% for electric boilers. By 2050 anticipated cost and efficiency improvements further enhance the competitiveness of heat pumps. These results highlight the economic advantage of HTHPs particularly when integrating excess heat and thermal storage.
Analysis of Anion Exchange Membrane Water Electrolyzer Performance and its Evolution Over Time
Dec 2025
Publication
Understanding water evolved gas and ionic transport in membrane-electrode-assemblies (MEAs) is essential for the development of high performance and durable anion exchange membrane water electrolyzers (AEMWEs). This study evaluates the MEA conditioning process operating conditions and short-term stability in a 1 M potassium hydroxide (KOH) electrolyte focusing on the underlying transport phenomena. We observe a significant initial voltage loss in continuous cell operation which could be associated with gas bubble accumulation transport layer or flow field passivation and changes in the catalyst oxidation state. Further we investigate the effects of materials and operational configurations including the membrane type and thickness and the electrolyte flow rate including KOH being fed to both electrodes as well as to the anode only. Furthermore the effect of membrane drying temperature on ex situ as well as in situ electrochemical performance is evaluated. Finally we discuss 700 h of AEMWE operation at 1 A/cm2 highlighting the underlying degradation phenomena.
Methanol Steam Reforming with Samarium-stabilized Copper Sites for Efficient Hydrogen Production
Nov 2025
Publication
The rational design of Cu-based catalysts with tailored interfacial structures and electronic states remains challenging yet essential for advancing hydrogen production via methanol steam reforming (MSR). Here we developed a samarium-mediated strategy to construct a 30Sm-CuAl catalyst. The introduction of Sm promotes Cu dispersion and induces strong metal-support interactions resulting in the formation of Sm2O3- encapsulated Cu nanoparticles enriched with Cu+ -O-Sm interfaces. The optimized 30Sm-CuAl demonstrates exceptional MSR performance achieving a hydrogen production rate of 1126 mmol gcat− 1 h− 1 at 250◦C. Mechanistic studies revealed that the reaction follows the formate pathway in xSm-CuAl with formate accumulation identified as the primary reason for the deactivation of 30Sm-CuAl. Dynamic regeneration of 30SmCuAl through redox treatment restores its activity thereby enabling cyclic operation. These findings provide insights into rare-earth oxide regulation of Cu-based catalysts and lay the foundation for targeted resolution of formate intermediate accumulation to enhance MSR stability.
Dispersion of High-Pressure Hydrogen Jets in Open-Top and Indoor Environments: Effects of Leak Geometry and Pressure
Nov 2025
Publication
Yang Li,
Shourui Zhang,
Meng Yu,
Yang Wu,
Jiake Wu and
Long Jiang
Hydrogen leakage is a critical safety concern for high-pressure storage systems where orifice geometry significantly influences dispersion and risk. Previous studies on leakage and diffusion have mostly focused on closed or semi-closed environments while thorough exploration has been conducted on open and unshielded environments. This work compares three typical orifice types—circular slit and Y-type—through controlled experiments. Results show that circular orifices generate directional jets with steep gradients but relatively low concentrations with a 1 mm case reaching only 0.725% at the jet core. Slit orifices exhibit more uniform diffusion; at 1 mm concentrations ranged from 2.125% to 2.625%. Y-type orifices presented the highest hazard with 0.5 mm leaks producing 2.9% and 1 mm cases approaching the 4% lower flammability limit within 375 s. Equilibrium times increased with orifice size from 400–800 s for circular and slit leaks to up to 900 s for Y-type leaks some of which failed to stabilize. Response behavior also varied: Y-type leaks achieved rapid multi-point responses (as short as 10 s) while circular and slit leaks responded more slowly away from the jet core. Overall risk ranking was circular < slit < Y-type underscoring the urgent need for geometry-specific monitoring strategies sensor layouts and emergency thresholds to ensure safe hydrogen storage.
Enhancing System Stability in Power-to-gas Applications: Integrating Biological Hydrogen Methanation and Microbial Electrolysis Cells under Hydrogen Overloading in Various Injection Modes
Nov 2025
Publication
Volatile fatty acid (VFA) accumulation is a common issue that compromises the performance of biological hydrogen methanation systems (BHMs). This accumulation is often triggered by fluctuations in hydrogen supply which can disrupt microbial activity and lead to system instability. To address this challenge this study investigated the impact of employing a microbial electrolysis cell (MEC) in BHMs to mitigate system instability and acid buildup. As such a conventional anaerobic digester (AD) and a microbial electrolysis cell both supplemented with exogenous hydrogen were evaluated for their performance in hydrogen methanation. The effect of exogenous hydrogen at high addition rates (>4:1 CO2:H2 molar ratio) under instantaneous and gradual injection modes was investigated. The results showed that the instantaneous addition of hydrogen resulted in the total failure of the anaerobic digestion system. Propionate accumulated in the system (>2 g/L) and resulted in low pH (pH=5.3). Methane production stopped and the reactor never recovered from hydrogen shock. However the microbial electrolysis system was able to withstand the instantaneous hydrogen addition and maintain normal operation under toxic hydrogen addition levels (>4:1 CO2:H2 molar ratio). Under the gradual injection mode both MEC and AD reactors remained reasonably unaffected; even though the hydrogen injection exceeded the stoichiometric molar ratio. This study provides a new perspective on the application of MECs for reliable operation and storage of surplus renewable energy via biological hydrogen methanation.
Effects of Hydrogen-rich Gas Injection on Combustion Characteristics in Blast Furnace Raceway and Thermal Load of Tuyere: A Numerical Simulation Study
Nov 2025
Publication
Hydrogen-rich gas (HRG) injection is a promising low-carbon solution for blast furnace ironmaking. This study conducted numerical simulations in the lower part of a blast furnace to analyze the combustion behavior of coinjected coke oven gas (COG) and pulverized coal (PC) within the raceway and the associated thermal load on the tuyere. A three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics model incorporating fluid–thermal–solid coupling and the GRI-Mech 3.0 chemical kinetic mechanism (validated for 300–2500 K) was established to simulate the lance–blowpipe–tuyere–raceway region. The simulation results revealed that moderate COG injection accelerated volatile release from PC and enlarged the high-temperature zone (>2000 K). However excessive COG injection intensified oxygen competition and shortened the residence time of PC ultimately decreasing the burnout rate. Notably although COG has high reactivity its injection did not cause an increase in tuyere temperature. By contrast the presence of an unburned gas layer near the upper wall of the tuyere and the existence of a strong convective cooling effect contributed to a reduction in tuyere temperature. An optimized cooling water channel was designed to enhance flow distribution and effectively suppress localized overheating. The findings of this study offer valuable technical insights for ensuring safe COG injection and advancing low-carbon steelmaking practices.
An Explainable Fault Diagnosis Algorithm for Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells Integrating Gramian Angular Fields and Gradient-Weighted Class Activation Mapping
Nov 2025
Publication
Reliable operation of proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) is crucial for their widespread commercialization and accurate fault diagnosis is the key to ensuring their long-term stable operation. However traditional fault diagnosis methods not only lack sufficient interpretability making it difficult for users to trust their diagnostic decisions but also one-dimensional (1D) feature extraction methods highly rely on manual experience to design and extract features which are easily affected by noise. This paper proposes a new interpretable fault diagnosis algorithm that integrates Gramian angular field (GAF) transform convolutional neural network (CNN) and gradient-weighted class activation mapping (Grad-CAM) for enhanced fault diagnosis and analysis of proton exchange membrane fuel cells. The algorithm is systematically validated using experimental data to classify three critical health states: normal operation membrane drying and hydrogen leakage. The method first converts the 1D sensor signal into a two-dimensional GAF image to capture the temporal dependency and converts the diagnostic problem into an image recognition task. Then the customized CNN architecture extracts hierarchical spatiotemporal features for fault classification while Grad-CAM provides visual explanations by highlighting the most influential regions in the input signal. The results show that the diagnostic accuracy of the proposed model reaches 99.8% which is 4.18% 9.43% and 2.46% higher than other baseline models (SVM LSTM and CNN) respectively. Furthermore the explainability analysis using Grad-CAM effectively mitigates the “black box” problem by generating visual heatmaps that pinpoint the key feature regions the model relies on to distinguish different health states. This validates the model’s decision-making rationality and significantly enhances the transparency and trustworthiness of the diagnostic process.
Predicting Combustor Performance for Hydrogen-propane Fuel Blends in Gas Turbines: A Coupled Thermofluid and Chemical Reactor Network Model
Nov 2025
Publication
The transition to carbon-neutral energy has renewed interest in hydrogen as a gas turbine fuel in the form of fuel blends with hydrocarbons. However the distinct fluid properties and chemical kinetics of hydrogen and hydrocarbon blends necessitate redeveloped combustor designs. While conventional combustor design and emissions estimation through computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is preferred it is computationally intensive and impractical for system-level simulations. To alleviate this a thermofluid network model was developed to predict the performance of a MGT combustor operating on pure and fuel blends of propane and hydrogen. It incorporates sub-component pressure losses and heat transfer and presents the first implementation of well-stirred and plug-flow reactors into Flownex SE. A 3-D CFD study of the combustor revealed that hydrogen addition improved combustion efficiency and reduced wall temperatures. However although it produces less CO2 it leads to 70 % more CO and 80 % more NO than for propane-only operation. Validated against the 3-D CFD data the network model predicted the combustor outlet total temperature and pressure within 0.55 % and 0.26 % respectively. The change in total pressure across subcomponents (<6 %) and the mass flow distribution showed similarly strong agreement. Major species mass fractions CO2 and H2O were predicted accurately. However by assuming that the temperature and composition are uniform within combustion zones zone and wall temperatures and pollutant predictions deviated considerably. NO was overpredicted by a factor of 8.2–10.7 and CO was overpredicted for propane-only but underpredicted for blended cases. The network model achieved this performance 420 times faster than CFD making it suitable for rapid design exploration.
Techno-economic Feasibility of Centralized and Decentralized Ammonia Production in the United States
Nov 2025
Publication
Ammonia is a cornerstone of modern agriculture supplying the nitrogen essential for crops that nourish nearly half the global population. Yet its production is responsible for ~2 % of global greenhouse gas emissions. To meet climate and food security goals sustainable low-carbon and resilient ammonia production systems are needed. Here we develop a spatially explicit techno-economic model to compare centralized and decentralized ammonia production pathways across the U.S. a major global ammonia producer and consumer spanning the full supply chain from hydrogen production to fertilizer delivery. We integrate high-resolution supply and demand data and apply linear optimization to estimate delivered ammonia costs accounting for geographic mismatches and transportation. Our results show that decentralized ammonia production whether powered by grid electricity or solar energy is substantially more expensive than centralized production from natural gas or coal. Centralized natural gas-based ammonia has a median production cost of 326 USD/tonne NH3 compared to 499 USD/tonne for coal. Decentralized grid-powered systems range from 659 to 1634 USD/tonne and solar-powered systems from 1077 to 2266 USD/tonne. Transportation costs for centralized production range from 7 to 85 USD/tonne with a median of 40 USD/tonne resulting in a delivered cost of 343 USD/tonne. Median delivered costs for decentralized grid- and solar-powered systems are 1069 and 1494 USD/tonne respectively. Decentralized systems require electricity prices below 19 USD/MWh (grid) and 17 USD/MWh (solar) to achieve cost parity well below 2024 U S. averages of 117 USD/MWh. These results highlight the economic challenges facing decentralized ammonia production and the importance of electricity cost reductions tax credits carbon pricing or further technological breakthroughs for broader viability.
Simulation of the Refuelling Process for an LH2-powered Commercial Aircraft Part 1 - Modelling and Validation
Nov 2025
Publication
Liquid hydrogen (LH2) is a promising candidate for zero emission aviation but its cryogenic properties make the refuelling process fundamentally different from that of conventional jet fuels. Although previous studies have addressed LH2 storage and system integration detailed modelling of the refuelling process remains limited. This paper presents the first part of a two-part study focused on simulation of the refuelling process for an LH2-powered commercial aircraft. An existing tank model is substantially modified to more accurately capture relevant physical phenomena including heat transfer and droplet dynamics during top-fill spray injection. Newly available experimental data on LH2 no-vent filling enables direct validation of the model under conditions that match the experimental setup. A sensitivity analysis identifies the most influential parameters that affect model precision including loss coefficient droplet diameter radiative heat ingress and vent-closing pressure. The validated model forms the basis for Part 2 of this study in which it is applied to a representative LH2-powered commercial aircraft to simulate refuelling times quantify venting losses and assess the impact of key operational settings. These results support the design of efficient LH2 refuelling systems for future aircraft and airport infrastructure.
Techno-economic Assessment of Hythane-fueled Industrial SOFC Systems
Nov 2025
Publication
Solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) systems offer high-efficiency conversion of the chemical energy of fuel gases into electrical energy. To meet market and policy targets such systems must be able of operating on an industrial scale and be compatible with environmentally friendly fuels. This study models the scale-up of a 750 W naturalgas-fueled SOFC to a 240 kW system with various gas-path configurations evaluating the impact of blending up to 30 vol% of hydrogen (H2) into the methane feed. Aspen Plus simulations coupled with pressure-loss and carbon-deposition models were used to optimize recirculation ratio and reactant utilization for maximum efficiency. The parallel configuration achieved the highest electrical efficiency of 64.0 % while series-connected and intermediate systems suffered from increased pressure losses. H2 admixture simulations confirm that operation is feasible without loss of efficiency in the small- and large-scale systems due to reduced carbondeposition potential. A techno-economic analysis indicates a 91.7 % cost reduction through scale-up and a 1.6 % cost increase for adjusting the system to H2 admixtures. The economic viability of the large-scale system was evaluated for all tested fuel compositions (0.201–0.204 €/kWh) with payback times under 20 years at market-relevant electricity prices. These results demonstrate the technical and economic feasibility of large-scale H2-adapted SOFC systems for industrial decarbonization.
Single Step Electrified Hydrogen Production from Methane in a Gliding Arc/fluidized Bed Reactor
Nov 2025
Publication
In this work a plasma fluidized bed reactor has been studied as an electrified methane decomposition reactor for sustainable hydrogen production. A combined 3D rotating gliding arc/fluidized bed reactor assembly demonstrates a stable operation with a CH4/Ar mixture containing up to 8 vol% of CH4. The reactor provides a 97.2 % H2 selectivity at a methane conversion of 16.6 % and energy costs of 10.6 kJ L− 1 . This performance provides a new benchmark for electrified H2 production with a potential to utilise renewable electricity. In addition carbon materials are produced. The characterizations show difference in the morphology of the materials collected in different reactor zones.
Effects of Sensitization on Hydrogen Embrittlement Behavior in 304 Stainless Steel
Nov 2025
Publication
This study investigated the hydrogen embrittlement behavior of 304 stainless steel under the combined condition of sensitization and hydrogen pre-charging. Specifically hydrogen trapping analysis and martensite transformation mapping were used to examine the respective roles of carbide precipitation and chromium depletion and key factors were identified through fractographic observations. Sensitization was simulated at 650 ◦C for 50 h followed by hydrogen pre-charging at 250 ◦C under 50 MPa for 3.5 days. Under hydrogen pre-charging sensitized specimens showed a 9.3 % drop in ultimate tensile strength a 17.3 % reduction in elongation and a 16 % decrease in relative reduction of area indicating higher hydrogen embrittlement susceptibility. Hydrogen desorption analysis revealed a redistribution of hydrogen from reversible to irreversible traps consistent with 139 nm coarsened Cr23C6 carbides while phase mapping revealed extensive formation of strain-induced martensite along grain boundaries and within grains. These martensitic regions accelerated hydrogen transport and promoted strain localization leading to the disappearance of intragranular dimples and the development of intergranular cracking. The results demonstrate that strain-induced martensite formed in chromiumdepleted regions is the dominant factor governing post-sensitization hydrogen embrittlement emphasizing the necessity of controlling chromium depletion to maintain the stability of the austenitic matrix in hydrogen environments.
Direct Injection Hydrogen Combustion under Leaner Conditions in an Optical Engine using Optical/Laser Diagnostics
Nov 2025
Publication
Hydrogen’s increasing potential as an alternative fuel for heavy-duty transport has led to the conversion of conventional diesel compression-ignition engines to spark-ignition hydrogen operation. Hydrogen’s broad flammability range enables leaner operation achieving both higher engine efficiency and near-zero emissions. In particular direct injection hydrogen combustion improves volumetric efficiency and reduces problems including pre-ignition and knock related to hydrogen port-fuel injection. In the present work we performed an optical investigation of direct injection (DI) hydrogen combustion under leaner mixture conditions. The study was conducted using a heavy-duty optical diesel engine modified for spark-ignition operation. Bottom-view natural flame luminosity and OH-PLIF imaging were conducted along with in-cylinder pressure measurements. Experiments were conducted at three air-excess ratios (3 3.4 and 3.8) with spark timings (ST) varied from − 15 ◦CA aTDC to − 30 ◦CA aTDC. Hydrogen injection ended at − 30 ◦CA aTDC with the start of injection adjusted accordingly to achieve the desired lambda conditions. The maximum IMEPg corresponded to the lowest COV of the IMEPg indicating optimal spark timing for lean DI hydrogen combustion. The optimized spark timing for λ = 3 λ = 3.4 and λ = 3.8 were occurred at − 25 ◦CA aTDC − 25 ◦CA aTDC and − 30 ◦CA aTDC respectively. The corresponding COV of IMEPg values were below 5 % indicating stable combustion. The flame kernel first initiates at the spark plug and then propagates toward the piston’s outer boundary however the flame propagation does not remain as a continuous front unlike port-fuel injected hydrogen combustion. The effect of fuel stratification is evident in combustion luminosity and OH-PLIF images showing pockets of varying intensity within the combustion chamber. Natural flame luminosity images reveal incomplete flame coverage and asymmetric combustion emphasizing the need for metal engine experiments to further quantify the unburned hydrogen and associated combustion losses.
A European Review of the Potential Role of Industrial Clusters in the Energy System When Leveraging Energy Synergies
Nov 2025
Publication
Concerns about the competitiveness of European industry led to the publication of the Draghi report. One of his recommendations is to install regional green industrial clusters around energy-intensive companies. The report identifies three benefit categories each corresponding to typical industrial symbiosis cases: improved investment cases by shared local low-carbon energy generation improved investment cases by shared infrastructure and improved energy flows for increased resource efficiency. Industrial clusters hold untapped potential to advance the energy transition and climate neutrality. However it is still unknown how and if this potential will ever be reached nor how scalable and replicable the benefits will be. This review paper aims to take a first step in exploring the potential role of industrial clusters in the energy system by exposing the research state of the art in academic literature. A literature review is performed in line with the three benefit categories according to Draghi to understand the enablers and barriers of potential synergies and their impact on the energy system. Afterwards the scalability is assessed by positioning the European industrial clusters in the larger renewable energy landscape. To illustrate the global interest a brief reflection is made on references to industrial clusters in the policy of non-European regions. The work concludes with interesting leads for future research to further advance knowledge on the importance of industrial clusters in the energy system and to stimulate the implementation of energy synergies.
Techno-economic Analysis of Energy Micro-grids with Hydrogen Storage and Fuel Cell in Moroccan Farming Systems
Nov 2025
Publication
This study evaluates the techno-economic performance of hybrid renewable microgrids integrating hydrogen storage and fuel cells in two Moroccan pilot farms: a grid-connected site (BLFARM) and an off-grid site (RIMSAR). Real meteorological and load data were analyzed in HOMER Pro to assess feasibility. In 2024 BLFARM achieved a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of e1.63/kWh and a Renewable Fraction (Ren Frac) of 83.9% while RIMSAR reached e4.32/kWh with 100% renewable contribution. Hydrogen use remained limited due to low demand and high costs. Assuming 2050 hydrogen-technology reductions LCOE decreased to e0.160/kWh (BLFARM) and e0.425/kWh (RIMSAR) while hydrogen components were still underutilized. Aggregating demand from 5-80 farms reduced LCOE by over 50% from e0.093 to e0.045/kWh (BLFARM) and from e0.142 to e0.074/kWh (RIMSAR) while increasing electrolyzer and fuelcell operation. Community-networked hydrogen microgrids thus enhance component utilization energy resilience and cost effectiveness in rural Moroccan agriculture.
Designing and Long-term Planning for Household Hydrogen Supply Chain in Australia
Nov 2025
Publication
This study presents the development of the long-term Household Hydrogen Supply Chain (HHSC) model aimed at supporting the decarbonisation of household energy consumption. Structured across three strategic phases: foundation expansion and maturation the model facilitates the systematic phase-out of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) by 2045 and natural gas (NG) by 2080. Employing demand estimation methodologies grounded in historical data and exponential decay functions the study forecasts long-term hydrogen adoption trajectories and allocates regional demand to optimise infrastructure placement. A network optimisation model identifies the optimal locations and capacities of national regional and local distribution centres (NDCs RDCs and LDCs). This staged development ensures operational scalability geographic equity and financial viability. A key finding is the substantial increase in profitability from $479 million in 2026 to $88.26 billion by 2090 driven by infrastructure growth and increasing hydrogen demand. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the adoption during the mid years (2040–2060) is particularly vulnerable to cost fluctuations. The model supports net-zero 2050 goals and aligns with several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) including SDGs 7 9 and 13. While the HHSC provides a structured pathway for long-term hydrogen transition future research should focus on enhancing the resilience of the HHSC by incorporating real-time data integration assessing vulnerability to supply chain disruptions and developing risk mitigation strategies to ensure continuity and scalability in hydrogen delivery under uncertain operating conditions.
Flashback Behavior and Safety Implications of Hydrogen-natural Gas Mixtures
Nov 2025
Publication
Hydrogen blending in natural gas systems is a key transitional strategy for reducing carbon emissions. This study explores the influence of hydrogen on combustion properties including flame flashback risk quenching distance and energy efficiency. Experimental and computational analyses demonstrate that hydrogen addition increases flame speed but reduces calorific value and quenching distance thereby impacting combustion stability and safety. Findings suggest that optimizing burner design and combustion control strategies is essential for safely and efficiently using hydrogen-enriched natural gas. Experimental validation confirmed that a 1.50 mm channel dimension effectively prevented flame flashback for hydrogen concentrations up to 40% in natural gas. As energy systems evolve toward decarbonization this research provides critical insights into the feasibility and challenges of hydrogen integration in residential or industrial applications. The study investigated the combustion behavior of natural gas enriched with various concentrations of hydrogen (up to 25%). Dynamic or fluctuating mixing conditions were excluded as the implementation of such a system in energy sector applications would necessitate a stable and well-defined gas composition.
Hydrogen-involved Renewable Energy Base Planning in Desert and Gobi Regions under Electricity-carbon-hydrogen Markets
Nov 2025
Publication
China is developing renewable energy bases (REBs) in the desert and Gobi regions. However the intermittency of renewable energy and the temporal mismatch between peak renewable generation and peak load demand severely disrupt the power supply reliability of these REBs. Hydrogen storage technology characterized by high energy density and long-term storage capability is an effective method for enhancing the power supply reliability. Therefore this paper proposes a REB planning model in the desert and Gobi regions considering seasonal hydrogen storage introduction as well as electricity-carbon-hydrogen markets trading. Furthermore a combination scenario generation method considering extreme scenario optimization is proposed. Among which the extreme scenarios selected through an iterative selection method based on maximizing scenario divergence contain more incremental information providing data support for the proposed model. Finally the simulation was conducted in the desert and Gobi regions of Yinchuan Ningxia Province China primarily verifying that (1) the REB incorporating hydrogen storage can fully leverage hydrogen storage to achieve seasonal and long-term electricity transfer and utilization. The project has a payback period of 10 years with an internal rate of return of 13.30% and a return on investment of 16.34% thus showing significant development potential. (2) Compared to the typical battery-involved REB the hydrogen-involved energy storage facility achieved a 59.39% annual profit a 10.98% internal rate of return a 14.93% return on investment and a 1.51% improvement in power supply reliability by sacrificing a 52.49% increase in construction cost. (3) Compared to REB planning based only on typical scenarios the power supply reliability of REBs based on the proposed combination scenario generation method improved by 8.58%.
A Two-Stage Optimal Dispatch Strategy for Electric-ThermalHydrogen Integrated Energy System Based on IGDT and Fuzzy Chance-Constrained Programming
Nov 2025
Publication
Na Sun,
Hongxu He and
Haiying Dong
To address the economic and reliability challenges of high-penetration renewable energy integration in electricity-heat-hydrogen integrated energy systems and support the dualcarbon strategy this paper proposes an optimal dispatch method integrating Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) and Fuzzy Chance-Constrained Programming (FCCP). An IES model coupling multiple energy components was constructed to exploit multi-energy complementarity. A stepped carbon trading mechanism was introduced to quantify emission costs. For interval uncertainties in renewable generation IGDT-based robust and opportunistic dispatch models were established; for fuzzy load uncertainties FCCP transformed them into deterministic equivalents forming a dual-layer “IGDT-FCCP” uncertainty handling framework. Simulation using CPLEX demonstrated that the proposed model dynamically adjusts uncertainty tolerance and confidence levels effectively balancing economy robustness and low-carbon performance under complex uncertainties: reducing total costs by 12.7% cutting carbon emissions by 28.1% and lowering renewable curtailment to 1.8%. This study provides an advanced decision-making paradigm for low-carbon resilient IES.
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