The Hydrogen Trade-Off: Optimizing Decarbonization Pathways for Urban Integrated Energy Systems

Rapid socio-economic development has made energy application and environmental issues increasingly prominent. Hydrogen energy, clean, eco-friendly, and highly synergistic with renewable energy, has become a global research focus. This study, using the EnergyPLAN model that includes the electricity, transportation, and industrial sectors, takes Jinan City as the research object and explores how hydrogen penetration changes affect the decarbonization path of the urban integrated energy system under four scenarios. It evaluates the four hydrogen scenarios with the entropy weight method and technique, placing them in an order of preference according to their similarity to the ideal solution, considering comprehensive indicators like cost, carbon emissions, and sustainability. Results show the China Hydrogen Alliance potential scenario has better CO2 emission reduction potential and unit emission reduction cost, reducing them by 7.98% and 29.39%, respectively. In a comprehensive evaluation, it ranks first with a score of 0.5961, meaning it is closest to the ideal scenario when cost, environmental, and sustainability indicators are comprehensively considered. The Climate Response Pioneer scenario follows with 0.4039, indicating that higher hydrogen penetration in terminal energy is not necessarily the most ideal solution. Instead, appropriate hydrogen penetration scenarios should be selected based on the actual situation of different energy systems.