Reliability and Risk Assessment of Hydrogen-Powered Marine Propulsion Systems Based on the Integrated FAHP-FMECA Framework

With the IMO’s 2050 decarbonization target, hydrogen is a key zero-carbon fuel for shipping, but the lack of systematic risk assessment methods for hydrogen-powered marine propulsion systems (under harsh marine conditions) hinders its large-scale application. To address this gap, this study proposes an integrated risk evaluation framework by fusing Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) with the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP)—resolving the limitation of traditional single evaluation tools and adapting to the dynamic complexity of marine environments. Scientific findings from this framework confirm that hydrogen leakage, high-pressure storage tank valve leakage, and inverter overload are the three most critical failure modes, with hydrogen leakage being the primary risk source due to its high severity and detection difficulty. Further hazard matrix analysis reveals two key risk mechanisms: one type of failure (e.g., insufficient hydrogen concentration) features “high severity but low detectability,” requiring real-time monitoring; the other (e.g., distribution board tripping) shows “high frequency but controllable impact,” calling for optimized operations. This classification provides a theoretical basis for precise risk prevention. Targeted improvement measures (e.g., dual-sealed valves, redundant cooling circuits, AI-based regulation) are proposed and quantitatively validated, reducing the system’s overall risk value from 4.8 (moderate risk) to 1.8 (low risk). This study’s core contribution lies in developing a universally applicable scientific framework for marine hydrogen propulsion system risk assessment. It not only fills the methodological gap in traditional evaluations but also provides a theoretical basis for the safe promotion of hydrogen shipping, supporting the scientific realization of the IMO’s decarbonization goal.