Market Readiness Analysis: Expected Uptake of Alternative Fuel Heavy-duty Vehicles until 2030 and their Corresponding Infrastructure Needs

This report assesses the market readiness of zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles and the required infrastructure to meet the 45% emission reduction targets set by the revised CO2 standards by 2030. Achieving these goals requires the widespread adoption of zero-emission vehicles and a robust recharging and hydrogen refuelling infrastructure Three main aspects are investigated: the market readiness of the vehicles considering both the demand and supply side, the corresponding infrastructure requirements, and the barriers. Building on the inputs of the stakeholders, a ‘study scenario’ is developed. This scenario shows a concrete picture of what the zero-emission heavy-duty vehicle fleet and its infrastructure requirement could look like by 2030. There are however key barriers that need to be overcome such as high total cost of ownership, limited electricity grid capacity, lengthy permitting processes, and uncertainty in hydrogen availability and pricing. Stakeholders also emphasize the importance of policy drivers such as emissions trading systems and tolling and tax reforms, to stimulate demand. In conclusion, achieving the 2030 targets demands a coordinated approach involving manufacturers, operators, and policymakers to address infrastructure gaps, market barriers, and policy incentives, ensuring the transition to a zero-emission HDV fleet.