Applications & Pathways
Hydrogen Utilization for Decarbonizing the Dairy Industry: A Techno-economic Scenario Analysis
Nov 2025
Publication
This study investigates the integration of on-site green hydrogen as a substitute for methane in steam generation in the dairy industry specifically in the production of Parmigiano Reggiano cheese. This represents a novel application of green hydrogen in industrial dairy processing with the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Hydrogen is assumed to be generated via electrolysis powered by photovoltaic energy. A comprehensive techno-economic assessment was conducted with simulations covering key design variables such as hydrogen fraction in steam production photovoltaic panel orientation and storage pressure. A wide range of scenarios was defined in order to account for variability in system structures and performance and a comprehensive economic assessment was then carried out using a Monte Carlo simulation approach and a sensitivity analysis. Results indicate that in all scenarios the net present value over a 15-year period remains negative when benefits are limited to methane savings. Indeed the high capital expenditure associated with hydrogen systems presents a major barrier. The most favorable cases occur at low hydrogen shares with seasonal storage while full conversion to hydrogen maximizes CO2 abatement but is least economical. With public funding the emissions saved per euro of public support range from 1.58 to 2.14 kg CO2eq/€.
Decarbonization of Hard-to-abate Industries under Water Constraints via Renewable Hydrogen Infrastructure Planning
Nov 2025
Publication
Achieving global decarbonization is essential to mitigate climate change yet heat-intensive industries remain challenging to decarbonize through electrification alone. Green hydrogen offers a clean alternative to replace fossil fuels and fossil fuel–based hydrogen but its deployment requires careful planning and robust economic assessment. This study addresses the optimal design of a green hydrogen supply chain in a Mediterranean region where ceramics and cement dominate as energy-intensive industries while oil refining is the main consumer of fossil fuel–based hydrogen. The region also faces freshwater scarcity due to its climate and the high demand for water from tourism and agriculture. A Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model is developed to minimize the total cost of supplying green hydrogen by determining the optimal size and location of renewable energy sources integrating desalinated seawater from existing desalination plants as feedstock and designing the infrastructure connecting production storage and demand centers. The cost-optimal configuration includes 3.4 GW of PEM electrolyzers requiring 41.1 m3 /h of desalinated seawater supplied by existing desalination plants along with 5.1 GW of wind and 12 GW of solar power as renewable energy sources for large-scale hydrogen production. Results show that supplying green hydrogen to these industries can avoid approximately 4.4 million tons of CO2 emissions annually achieving a levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) of $2.18/kg for the period 2030–2050. Beyond this case study the proposed framework provides a replicable methodology for planning hydrogen-based energy systems in regions facing similar water and decarbonization challenges.
Technical and Environmental Assessment of New Green Iron Production Strategies using Hydrogen
Nov 2025
Publication
In order to assess the decarbonization potential and overall environmental benefits of new reduction pathways in the ironmaking industry using hydrogen to produce Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) a coupled approach combining process simulation for rigorous technical and energy evaluation of iron ore conversion and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) for environmental assessment was developed and extended to two alternative renewable heating strategies: (i) electric gas heating and (ii) solar reactor heating. The entire hydrogen-based ironmaking process including conversion in a shaft reactor gas and solid heating gas recycling and electrolysis was therefore simulated. The hydrogen-based reduction of iron ores in the shaft reactor was modeled using a rigorous reactor model describing the reduction of multi-layer iron ore pellets in countercurrent gas–solid moving beds with the particularity of representing the dual influence of particle size and temperature on conversion. The remainder of the process including gas recycling and hydrogen production was simulated using ProSim software. The hydrogen-based green ironmaking scenarios were then compared to MIDREX NG a leading natural gas-based reduction technology. Hydrogen-based scenarios powered by the French electricity mix reduce carbon footprints by 53 % for electric gas heating and 57 % for solar reactor heating potentially reaching 82 % (− 0.79 kgCO2-eq/kgDRI) with low-carbon electricity (hydro nuclear). Compared to MIDREX NG the energy requirements of both hydrogen-based scenarios are primarily determined by the use of electricity for hydrogen production illustrating the importance of hydrogen production for the assessment of future hydrogen-based green ironmaking.
Heat Transfer Enhancement in Regenerative Cooling Channels: Numerical Analysis of Single- and Double-row Cylindrical Ribs with Supercritical Hydrogen
Nov 2025
Publication
The thermal protection of rocket engine combustion chambers presents a critical challenge in supersonic flight applications. This study numerically investigates the enhancement of heat transfer and coolant flow characteristics in regenerative cooling channels through cylindrical rib integration employing ANSYS Fluent with SST k-ω turbulence modeling to evaluate single- and double-row configurations (0.75–1.25 mm diameter) under supercritical hydrogen conditions (3 MPa 300 K inlet). Results demonstrate that rib-induced turbulence disrupts thermal boundary layers with a 1.25 mm single-row design achieving a 13.67 % reduction in peak wall temperature compared to smooth channels while double-row arrangements show diminishing returns due to increased flow resistance. The thermal performance factor (η = (Nu/Nu₀)/(f/f₀) 1/3) reveals Case 3′s superiority (21.88 % improvement over the smooth channel configuration) in balancing heat transfer enhancement against pressure drop penalties (9.23–20.93 % for single-row 8.26–18.7 % for double-row). Notably density-driven flow acceleration near heated walls mitigates pressure losses through localized viscosity reduction. Furthermore cylindrical ribs reduce thermal stratification by up to 30 % in single-row configurations with double-row designs providing additional temperature homogenization at the cost of increased flow resistance. These findings offer critical insights for optimizing rib-enhanced cooling systems in high-performance rocket engines achieving simultaneous thermal efficiency and hydraulic performance improvements.
Flame Curvature in Heat-loss-affected Lean Hydrogen Flames: A One-dimensional Manifold Approach
Oct 2025
Publication
Curvature effects are incorporated into a one-dimensional composition-space formulation of a non-unity Lewis number lean premixed flame with strong heat loss. The results of this new canonical problem successfully compare with direct numerical simulations (DNS) of a lean hydrogen-air flame propagating in a narrow channel with heat conduction through the confining plates. The complex dynamics of the flame front consisting of isolated flame kernels are analyzed through the various terms arising from the projection of the fuel and energy equations onto a moving scalar reference frame attached to the reaction zone. Novelty and significance statement A novel one-dimensional flame model incorporating curvature and differential diffusion effects is introduced to address non-unity Lewis number lean premixed flames with strong heat loss. This canonical flame model arises from the projection of temperature and fuel gradient magnitude onto composition space. The framework is employed to analyze flame front dynamics and identify the reaction zones governing flame kernel propagation and heat release. The composition-space flame structure shows strong agreement between the canonical problem and direct numerical simulations (DNS) of a lean hydrogen-air flame propagating in a narrow channel with heat conduction.
Thermal Energy Integration and Optimization in a Biomass-fueled Multi-generation System for Power, Hydrogen, and Freshwater Production
Nov 2025
Publication
This work investigates a biomass-driven multi-generation system designed for simultaneous power freshwater and hydrogen production addressing the interlinked energy-waterenvironment nexus. The configuration integrates Brayton supercritical carbon dioxide (SCO2) organic Rankine cycle (ORC) and thermoelectric generator (TEG) subsystems to maximize utilization of biomass-derived syngas. The recovered energy drives a reverse osmosis (RO) desalination unit for freshwater production and an alkaline electrolyzer for hydrogen generation followed by two-stage compression for storage. Under baseline conditions the system generates 1.99 MW of electricity 9.38 kg/h of hydrogen and 88.6 m3 /h of freshwater with an overall exergetic efficiency of 20.25 % emissions intensity of 0.85 kg/kWh and a payback period of 5.87 years. The Brayton cycle accounts for 49.3 % of the total cost rate while the gasifier exhibits the highest exergy destruction at 46 %. Sensitivity analyses show that varying biomass moisture content (10–30 %) and operating temperatures (700–900 ◦C) significantly influence system performance. Using a data-driven optimization framework that combines artificial neural networks (ANN) and a genetic algorithm (GA) the system’s exergetic efficiency improves to 21.76 % freshwater output rises to 90.96 m3 /h and emissions intensity decreases to 0.877 kg/kWh. Additionally optimization reduces the total cost rate by 2.71 % leading to a payback period of 5.4 years and enhances the system’s overall performance by 12.64 %.
Optimal Possibilistic-robust Operation of Multi-energy Microgrids Considering Infrastructure Hydrogen Storage Capability
Nov 2025
Publication
In sustainable energy transitions the utilization of hydrogen is crucial providing flexibility in the operation of net-zero emission renewable-based energy systems. This paper presents a study on the optimal operation of netzero emission multi-energy future microgrids that utilize hydrogen as an alternative fuel instead of natural gas. The electrolyzers’ output is injected into the hydrogen grid to meet demand or converted back to electricity later using generating units owing to the storage capability of pipes called linepack. For this purpose a detailed mathematical model is developed to simulate the main characteristics of grids (e.g. voltage current hydrogen flow and pressure) as well as various components (e.g. renewable systems electrolyzers and hydrogen-fired units). To become more realistic a possibilistic-robust approach is developed to account for the uncertainty arising from the lack of real-world implementation. By representing a case study a test is performed to evaluate the possibility of employing a low-pressure gas grid to meet the demand for hydrogen. After that the effects of electrolyzers are analyzed in the presence and absence of the uncertainty consideration approach. The result indicates that despite hydrogen’s lower energy density compared to natural gas it is still feasible to satisfy the same energy demand level considering the technical characteristics of the grid. The integration of electrolyzers can reduce wind curtailment by 2 % and supplement hydrogen demand by 50 %. A higher level of conservatism in the possibilistic-robust approach leads to an increase in the mean value of the objective function and a reduction in the standard deviation under the realization of uncertain parameters which provides the decisionmakers with a more realistic insight.
OH* Chemiluminescence in Non-premixed Industrial Natural Gas/hydrogen Flames under Air-fuel and Oxy-fuel Conditions: Kinetic Modeling and Experimental Validation
Oct 2025
Publication
The application of OH* chemiluminescence diagnostics is becoming increasingly prevalent in the combustion characterization of hydrogen. As the current literature is lacking a systematic study of OH* chemiluminescence in non-premixed turbulent natural gas (NG) and hydrogen (H2 ) flames the present work was designed to address this research gap. Therefore extensive experiments were performed on a semi-industrial burner operating at 50–100 kW in NG/H2–Air/O2 combustion modes which were complemented by comprehensive numerical simulations including 1D laminar counterflow diffusion flamelet calculations and full 3D CFD simulations of the semi-industrial furnace setup. In this way an OH* chemistry model is presented that accurately predicts the global reaction zone characteristics and their difference between CH4 and H2 in air-fired and oxygen-fired flames. The comprehensive numerical approach in conjunction with the subsequent study of different operating conditions yielded novel insights into both combustion modeling and the underlying thermochemical phenomena providing an essential contribution to the transition of the thermal energy sector towards hydrogen as an alternative carbon-free fuel.
Towards the Decarbonization of the Maritime Industry: Design of a Novel Methodology for the Sustainable Strategy Assessment
Oct 2025
Publication
The growing concern about the increase in European Union (EU)’s total CO2 emissions due to maritime activities and the ambitious goal of net zero emissions they are asked to fulfil by 2050 are leading the way to the adoption of new sustainable strategies. In this article a novel methodology for the classification of the sustainable actions is proposed. Moreover new indicators have been designed to compare the level of sustainable development of each port. Among them a new coefficient for the assessment of the Ports’ Potential Sustainability (PPS) have been designed. Main results showed that 56% of the actions were in the improvement and environmentally sustainable group while 19% were shift-economic actions related to the installation of technologies. As a matter of the fact all European ports under analysis have adopted cold ironing system which can reduce up to 4% of the global shipping emissions. Similarly 50% of them have already integrated renewables energies and prioritize equipment electrification in their processes. Finally the most relevant projects to optimize the energy consumption of daily operations and the main challenges that still need to be addressed have been analyzed showing the current trends maritime sector is undertaking to advance towards the sustainable development.
Life Cycle and Economic Viability Assessment of Clean Hydrogen as a Fuel in Corn Drying
Oct 2025
Publication
This study presents a comparative life cycle and economic assessment of using clean hydrogen as a sustainable alternative to natural gas and propane for corn grain drying. The study compares the environmental performance limited to GWP100 and cost-effectiveness of hydrogen from various renewable sources (hydro wind solar) and plasma pyrolysis of natural gas against conventional fossil fuels under two delivery scenarios: pipeline and trucking. A life cycle assessment is conducted using Open LCA to quantify the carbon intensity of each fuel from cradle to combustion at multiple energy requirements based on four burner efficiencies across each scenario. In parallel economic analysis is conducted by calculating the fuel cost required per ton of dried corn grains at each efficiency across both scenarios. The results indicate that green hydrogen consistently outperforms current fuels in terms of emissions but it is generally more expensive at lower burner efficiencies and in trucking scenarios. However the cost competitiveness of green hydrogen improves significantly at higher efficiency and with pipeline infrastructure development it can become more economical when compared to propane. Hydrogen produced via plasma pyrolysis offers high environmental and economic costs due to its electricity and natural gas requirements. Sensitivity analysis further explores the impact of a 50% reduction in hydrogen production and transportation costs revealing that hydrogen could become a viable option for grain drying in both pipeline and trucking scenarios. This study highlights the long-term potential of hydrogen in reducing carbon emissions and offers insights into the economic feasibility of hydrogen adoption in agricultural drying processes. The findings suggest that strategic investments in hydrogen infrastructure could significantly enhance the sustainability of agricultural practices paving the way for a greener future in food production.
Hydrogen Strategies Under Uncertainty: Risk-Averse Choices for Green Hydrogen Pathways
Oct 2025
Publication
The last decade has been characterized by a growing environmental awareness and the rise of climate change concerns. Continuous advancement of renewable energy technologies in this context has taken a central stage on the global agenda leading to a diverse array of innovations ranging from cutting-edge green energy production technologies to advanced energy storage solutions. In this evolving context ensuring the sustainability of energy systems—through the reduction of carbon emissions enhancement of energy resilience and responsible resource integration—has become a primary objective of modern energy planning. The integration of hydrogen technologies for power-to-gas (P2G) and power-topower (P2P) and energy storage systems is one of the areas where the most remarkable progress is being made. However real case implementations are lagging behind expectations due to large-scale investments needed which under high energy price uncertainty act as a barrier to widespread adoption. This study proposes a risk-averse approach for sizing an Integrated Hybrid Energy System considering the uncertainty of electricity and gas prices. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer program and tested on a real-world case study. The analysis sheds light on the value of synergies and innovative solutions that hold the promise of a cleaner more sustainable future for generations to come.
Modeling Hydrogen-Assisted Combustion of Liquid Fuels in Compression-Ignition Engines Using a Double-Wiebe Function
Oct 2025
Publication
This article discusses the potential of using the double-Wiebe function to model combustion in a compression-ignition engine fueled by diesel fuel or its substitutes such as hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) and rapeseed methyl ester (RME) and hydrogen injected into the engine intake manifold. The hydrogen amount ranged from 0 to 35% of the total energy content of the fuels burned. It was found that co-combustion of liquid fuel with hydrogen is characterized by two distinct combustion phases: premixed and diffusion combustion. The premixed phase occurring just after ignition is characterized by a rapid combustion rate which increases with an increase in hydrogen injected. The novelty in this work is the modified formula for a double-Wiebe function and the proposed parameters of this function depending on the amount of hydrogen added for co-combustion with liquid fuel. To model this combustion process the modified double-Wiebe function was proposed which can model two phases with different combustion rates. For this purpose a normalized HRR was calculated and based on this curve coefficients for the double-Wiebe function were proposed. Satisfactory consistency with the experiment was achieved at a level determined by the coefficient of determination (R-squared) of above 0.98. It was concluded that the presented double-Wiebe function can be used to model combustion in 0-D and 1-D models for fuels: RME and HVO with hydrogen addition.
Insights from Swirl Number and Ambient Pressure Variations with a Hydrogen/Ammonia Swirl Stabilized Diffusion Flame
Oct 2025
Publication
Contemporary research into decarbonized fuels such as H2/NH3 has highlighted complex challenges with applied combustion with marked changes in thermochemical properties leading to significant issues such as limited operational range flashback and instability particularly when attempts are made to optimize emissions production in conventional lean-premixed systems. Non-premixed configurations may address some of these issues but often lead to elevated NOx production particularly when ammonia is retained in the fuel mixture. Optimized fuel injection and blending strategies are essential to mitigate these challenges. This study investigates the application of a 75 %/25 %mol H2/NH3 blend in a swirl-stabilized combustor operated at elevated conditions of inlet temperature (500 K) and ambient pressure (0.11–0.6 MPa). A complex nonmonotonic relationship between swirl number and increasing ambient combustor pressure is demonstrated highlighting the intricate interplay between swirling flow structures and reaction kinetics which remains poorly understood. At medium swirl (SN = 0.8) an increase in pressure initially reduces NO emissions diminishing past ~0.3 MPa with an opposing trend evident for high swirl (SN = 2.0) as NO emissions fall rapidly when combustor pressure approaches 0.6 MPa. High-fidelity numerical modeling is presented to elucidate these interactions in detail. Numerical data generated using Detached Eddy Simulations (DES) were validated against experimental results to demonstrate a change in flame anchoring on the axial shear layer and marked change in recirculated flow structure successfully capturing the features of higher swirl number flows. Favorable comparisons are made with optical data and a reduction in NO emissions with increasing pressure is demonstrated to replicate changes to the swirling flame chemical kinetics. Findings provide valuable insights into the combustion behavior of hydrogen-rich ammonia flames contributing to the development of cleaner combustion technologies.
Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems for Off-Grid Electrification: A Comprehensive Review of Storage Technologies, Metaheuristic Optimization Approaches and Key Challenges
Nov 2025
Publication
Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems (HRESs) are a practical solution for providing reliable low-carbon electricity to off-grid and remote communities. This review examines the role of energy storage within HRESs by systematically comparing electrochemical mechanical thermal and hydrogen-based technologies in terms of technical performance lifecycle cost operational constraints and environmental impact. We synthesize findings from implemented off-grid projects across multiple countries to evaluate real-world performance metrics including renewable fraction expected energy not supplied (EENS) lifecycle cost and operation & maintenance burdens. Special attention is given to the emerging role of hydrogen as a long-term and cross-sector energy carrier addressing its technical regulatory and financial barriers to widespread deployment. In addition the paper reviews real-world implementations of off-grid HRES in various countries summarizing practical outcomes and lessons for system design and policy. The discussion also includes recent advances in metaheuristic optimization algorithms which have improved planning efficiency system reliability and cost-effectiveness. By combining technological operational and policy perspectives this review identifies current challenges and future directions for developing sustainable resilient and economically viable HRES that can accelerate equitable electrification in remote areas. Finally the review outlines key limitations and future directions calling for more systematic quantitative studies long-term field validation of emerging technologies and the development of intelligent Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven energy management systems within broader socio-techno-economic frameworks. Overall this work offers concise insights to guide researchers and policymakers in advancing the practical deployment of sustainable and resilient HRES.
Hydrogen Blending as a Transitional Solution for Decarbonizing the Jordanian Electricity Generation Sector
Nov 2025
Publication
While renewable energy deployment has accelerated in recent years fossil fuels continue to play a dominant role in electricity generation worldwide. This necessitates the development of transitional strategies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from this sector while gradually reducing reliance on fossil fuels. This study investigates the potential of blending green hydrogen with natural gas as a transitional solution to decarbonize Jordan’s electricity sector. The research presents a comprehensive techno-economic and environmental assessment evaluating the compatibility of the Arab Gas Pipeline and major power plants with hydrogen–natural gas mixtures considering blending limits energy needs environmental impacts and economic feasibility under Jordan’s 2030 energy scenario. The findings reveal that hydrogen blending between 5 and 20 percent can be technically achieved without major infrastructure modifications. The total hydrogen demand is estimated at 24.75 million kilograms per year with a reduction of 152.7 thousand tons of carbon dioxide per annum. This requires 296980 cubic meters of water per year equivalent to only 0.1 percent of the National Water Carrier’s capacity indicating a negligible impact on national water resources. Although technically and environmentally feasible the project remains economically constrained requiring a carbon price of $1835.8 per ton of carbon dioxide for economic neutrality.
Green Hydrogen as a Decarbonization Pathway for Steel Industry in Pakistan
Nov 2025
Publication
The global steel industry emits 1.92 tons of CO2 per ton of output and faces urgent pressure to decarbonize. In Pakistan the sector accounts for 0.29 tons of CO2 per ton of output with limited mitigation frameworks in place. Green hydrogen (GH2)-based steelmaking offers a strategic pathway toward decarbonization. However realizing its potential depends on access to renewable energy. Despite Pakistan’s substantial technical wind potential of 340 GW grid limitations currently restrict wind power to only 4% of national electricity generation. This study explores GH2 production through sector coupling and power wheeling repurposing curtailed wind energy from Sindh to supply Karachi’s steel industry and proposing a phased roadmap for GH enabling fossil fuel substitution industrial resilience and alignment with global carbon-border regulations.
An Effective Integrated Optimal Day-ahead and Real-time Power Scheduling Approach for Hydrogen-based Microgrid
Oct 2025
Publication
The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources in power systems poses significant challenges for maintaining grid reliability mainly due to the variability and uncertainty of solar and demand profiles. Microgrids equipped with diverse storage technologies have emerged as a promising solution to address these issues.This paper proposes an integrated day-ahead and real-time power scheduling approach for grid-connected microgrids equipped with both conventional and hydrogen-based ESSs. While existing strategies often address day-ahead and real-time scheduling separately or rely on a single storage technology this work introduces a unified framework that exploits the complementary characteristics of batteries and hydrogen systems. The proposed approach is based on a novel two-stage stochastic optimization model embedded within a hierarchical optimization framework to address these two intertwined problems efficiently. For the day-ahead scheduling a two-stage stochastic programming energy management model is solved to optimize the microgrid schedule based on forecasted load demand and PV production profiles. Building upon the day-ahead schedule another optimization model is solved which addresses real-time power imbalances caused by deviations in actual PV production and load demand power profiles with respect to the forecasted ones with the aim of minimizing operational disruptions. Simulation results demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach achieving both cost reductions and minimal power imbalances. By dynamically adjusting energy flows and using both conventional batteries and hydrogen systems the proposed approach ensures improved reliability reduced operational costs and enhanced integration of RES in microgrids. These findings highlight the potential of the proposed hierarchical framework to support the large-scale deployment of RES while ensuring resilient and cost-effective microgrid operations.
Blockchain-based Traceability and Certifications of Hydrogen Refueling Station Components
Oct 2025
Publication
As hydrogen gains prominence in energy systems its adoption as an energy source for fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) necessitates the establishment of hydrogen refueling stations (HRS). These stations contain critical compo-nents including nozzles storage tanks heat exchangers and compressors which must be certified by regulatory agen-cies to ensure safety and public trust. Current certification processes are fragmented and manually intensive creating inefficiencies and limiting transparency across the infrastructure lifecycle. In this paper we propose a blockchain-based solution that creates a secure and auditable network for certifying key HRS components. The system integrates an EVM-compatible blockchain decentralized storage and a modular suite of smart contracts (SCs) that formalize registration bidding accreditation certification and governance. Each contract encodes a distinct actor-driven work-flow enabling traceable and role-specific operations. A Decentralized Application (DApp) interface supports real-time and role-based interaction across the ecosystem. We present and evaluate the SCs and their underlying algorithms us-ing gas usage analysis load testing and security auditing. Load testing across the certification lifecycle shows stable transaction throughput and predictable cost profiles under increasing actor activity. A static security analysis con-firms resilience against common vulnerabilities. Our cost analysis indicates that while the framework is technically deployable on public blockchains the execution costs of certain functions make it more cost-effective for private blockchains or Layer 2 networks. We also compare our framework with existing systems to highlight its novelty and technical advantages. Our SCs DApp interface and load testing scripts are publicly available on GitHub.
Uncertainty Ahead: Should Stand-alone Energy Systems Bet on Hydrogen Backup?
Oct 2025
Publication
Achieving net zero by 2050 will require decarbonising stand-alone energy applications. Hydrogen is increasingly viewed as a promising energy carrier but its economic viability remains uncertain due to the lack of consensus on future demand and limited deployment of key components such as fuel cells in stationary stand-alone applications. This study investigates whether hybridising batteries with hydrogen can deliver meaningful cost benefits under future cost trajectories. Using a Monte Carlo framework we simulate 8000 scenarios across constant and seasonal load profiles varying the capital costs of batteries fuel cells electrolysers and hydrogen tanks based on 2025 estimates and 2050 projections. Our results show that hydrogen integration only becomes economically attractive when multiple component costs decline simultaneously. The fuel cell-to-battery power capital cost ratio emerges as the dominant driver of levelised cost of energy (LCOE) improvements. For constant loads median LCOE savings remain below 12 % with more than 5 % savings only achieved when the fuel cell cost is less than 7 times that of the battery. Seasonal nighttime loads offer a wider theoretical LCOE savings range (0–156 %) but substantial gains occur only under unrealistic cost mixes where battery costs remain high and fuel cell costs fall sharply. These findings highlight the sensitivity of hydrogen viability to load profile characteristics and cost interdependencies. They underscore the need for targeted cost reduction strategies particularly for fuel cells to justify added system complexity. These findings are important considerations for future investment and policy decisions.
Life Cycle Assessment of Hydrogen-based Fuels Use in Internal Combustion Engines of Container Ships until 2050
Oct 2025
Publication
Hydrogen-based fuels are potential candidates to help international shipping achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by around 2050. This paper quantifies the environmental impacts of liquid hydrogen liquid ammonia and methanol used in a Post-Panamax container ship from 2020 to 2050. It considers cargo capacity changes electricity decarbonization and hydrogen production transitions under two International Energy Agency scenarios: the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE). Results show that compared to the existing HFO ship hydrogen-based propulsion systems can decrease cargo weight capacity by 0.3 % to 25 %. In the NZE scenario hydrogen-based fuels can reduce GHG emissions per tonne-nautical mile by 48 %–65 % compared to heavy fuel oil by 2050. Even with fully renewable hydrogenbased fuels 18 %–31 % of GHG emissions would still remain. Using hydrogen-based fuels in internal combustion engines requires attention to minimize environmental trade-offs.
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