Policy & Socio-Economics
Scenario Modeling of Sustainable Development of Energy Supply in the Arctic
Dec 2021
Publication
The 21st century is characterized not only by large-scale transformations but also by the speed with which they occur. Transformations—political economic social technological environmental and legal-in synergy have always been a catalyst for reactions in society. The field of energy supply like many others is extremely susceptible to the external influence of such factors. To a large extent this applies to remote (especially from the position of energy supply) regions. The authors outline an approach to justifying the development of the Arctic energy infrastructure through an analysis of the demand for the amount of energy consumed and energy sources taking into account global trends. The methodology is based on scenario modeling of technological demand. It is based on a study of the specific needs of consumers available technologies and identified risks. The paper proposes development scenarios and presents a model that takes them into account. Modeling results show that in all scenarios up to 50% of the energy balance in 2035 will take gas but the role of carbon-free energy sources will increase. The mathematical model allowed forecasting the demand for energy types by certain types of consumers which makes it possible to determine the vector of development and stimulation of certain types of resources for energy production in the Arctic. The model enables considering not only the growth but also the decline in demand for certain types of consumers under different scenarios. In addition authors’ forecasts through further modernization of the energy sector in the Arctic region can contribute to the creation of prerequisites that will be stimulating and profitable for the growth of investment in sustainable energy sources to supply consumers. The scientific significance of the work lies in the application of a consistent hybrid modeling approach to forecasting demand for energy resources in the Arctic region. The results of the study are useful in drafting a scenario of regional development taking into account the Sustainable Development Goals as well as identifying areas of technology and energy infrastructure stimulation.
Hydrogen Research: Technology First, Society Second?
Jul 2021
Publication
Hydrogen futures are in the making right in front of our eyes and will determine socio-ecological path dependencies for decades to come. However expertise on the societal effects of the hydrogen transition is in its infancy. Future energy research needs to include the social sciences humanities and interdisciplinary studies: energy cultures have to be examined as well as power relations and anticipation processes since the need for (green) hydrogen is likely to require a massive expansion of renewable energy plants.
Hydrogen Production Possibilities in Slovak Republic
Mar 2022
Publication
Slovak Republic is a member of the European Union and is a part of the European energy market. Although Slovakia contributes only marginally to global emissions there is an effort to meet obligations from the Paris climate agreement to reduce greenhouse gases. As in many countries power industry emissions dominate Slovakia’s emissions output but are partly affected and lowered by the share of nuclear energy. The transition from fossil fuels to renewables is supported by the government and practical steps have been taken to promote the wide use of renewable resources such as biomass or solar energy. Another step in this transition process is the support of new technologies that use hydrogen as the primary energy source. The European Union widely supports this effort and is looking for possible sources for hydrogen generation. One of the main renewable resources is hydropower which is already used in the Slovak Republic. This article presents the current situation of the energy market in Slovakia and possible developments for future hydrogen generation.
Influence of Hydrogen on Grid Investments for Smart Microgrids
Mar 2022
Publication
Electrification of the heat network in buildings together with a rise in popularity of Electric Vehicles (EVs) will result in a need to make investments in the electrical energy infrastructure in order to prevent congestion. This paper discusses the influence of hydrogen in future smart microgrids on these investments. Moreover smart control strategies i.e. EV management and demand response programs are used in this paper to lower the peak of electrical energy demand resulting in the reduction of these investments. Performances of microgrid with different levels of hydrogen penetration are discussed. It is shown that an increase in the level of hydrogen in the microgrid will reduce the electric grid investments costs but is not economically more beneficial than using ‘green’ gas due to the higher total economic costs.
Benefits of an Integrated Power and Hydrogen Offshore Grid in a Net-zero North Sea Energy System
Jun 2022
Publication
The North Sea Offshore Grid concept has been envisioned as a promising alternative to: 1) ease the integration of offshore wind and onshore energy systems and 2) increase the cross-border capacity between the North Sea region countries at low cost. In this paper we explore the techno-economic benefits of the North Sea Offshore Grid using two case studies: a power-based offshore grid where only investments in power assets are allowed (i.e. offshore wind HVDC/HVAC interconnectors); and a power-and-hydrogen offshore grid where investments in offshore hydrogen assets are also permitted (i.e. offshore electrolysers new hydrogen pipelines and retrofitted natural gas pipelines). In this paper we present a novel methodology in which extensive offshore spatial data is analysed to define meaningful regions via data clustering. These regions are incorporated to the Integrated Energy System Analysis for the North Sea region (IESA-NS) model. In this optimization model the scenarios are run without any specific technology ban and under open optimization. The scenario results show that the deployment of an offshore grid provides relevant cost savings ranging from 1% to 4.1% of relative cost decrease (2.3 bn € to 8.7 bn €) in the power-based and ranging from 2.8% to 7% of relative cost decrease (6 bn € to 14.9 bn €) in the power-and-hydrogen based. In the most extreme scenario an offshore grid permits to integrate 283 GW of HVDC connected offshore wind and 196 GW of HVDC meshed interconnectors. Even in the most conservative scenario the offshore grid integrates 59 GW of HVDC connected offshore wind capacity and 92 GW of HVDC meshed interconnectors. When allowed the deployment of offshore electrolysis is considerable ranging from 61 GW to 96 GW with capacity factors of around 30%.
A Flexible Techno-economic Analysis Tool for Regional Hydrogen Hubs - A Case Study for Ireland
Apr 2023
Publication
The increasing urgency with which climate change must be addressed has led to an unprecedented level of interest in hydrogen as a clean energy carrier. Much of the analysis of hydrogen until this point has focused predominantly on hydrogen production. This paper aims to address this by developing a flexible techno-economic analysis (TEA) tool that can be used to evaluate the potential of future scenarios where hydrogen is produced stored and distributed within a region. The tool takes a full year of hourly data for renewables availability and dispatch down (the sum of curtailment and constraint) wholesale electricity market prices and hydrogen demand as well as other user-defined inputs and sizes electrolyser capacity in order to minimise cost. The model is applied to a number of case studies on the island of Ireland which includes Ireland and Northern Ireland. For the scenarios analysed the overall LCOH ranges from V2.75e3.95/kgH2. Higher costs for scenarios without access to geological storage indicate the importance of cost-effective storage to allow flexible hydrogen production to reduce electricity costs whilst consistently meeting a set demand.
Decarbonizing China’s Energy System – Modeling the Transformation of the Electricity, Transportation, Heat, and Industrial Sectors
Nov 2019
Publication
Growing prosperity among its population and an inherent increasing demand for energy complicate China’s target of combating climate change while maintaining its economic growth. This paper therefore describes three potential decarbonization pathways to analyze different effects for the electricity transport heating and industrial sectors until 2050. Using an enhanced version of the multi-sectoral open-source Global Energy System Model enables us to assess the impact of different CO2 budgets on the upcoming energy system transformation. A detailed provincial resolution allows for the implementation of regional characteristics and disparities within China. Conclusively we complement the model-based analysis with a quantitative assessment of current barriers for the needed transformation. Results indicate that overall energy system CO2 emissions and in particular coal usage have to be reduced drastically to meet (inter-) national climate targets. Specifically coal consumption has to decrease by around 60% in 2050 compared to 2015. The current Nationally Determined Contributions proposed by the Chinese government of peaking emissions in 2030 are therefore not sufficient to comply with a global CO2 budget in line with the Paris Agreement. Renewable energies in particular photovoltaics and onshore wind profit from decreasing costs and can provide a more sustainable and cheaper energy source. Furthermore increased stakeholder interactions and incentives are needed to mitigate the resistance of local actors against a low-carbon transformation.
Towards a 100% Hydrogen Domestic Gas Network: Regulatory and Commercial Barriers to the First Demonstrator Project in the United Kingdom
May 2022
Publication
In the debate on the decarbonisation of heat renewable electricity tends to play a much more dominant role than green gases despite the potential advantages of gas in terms of utilising existing transportation networks and end-use appliances. Informed comparisons are hampered by information asymmetry; the renewable electricity has seen a huge grid level deployment whereas low-carbon hydrogen or bio-methane have been limited to some small stand-alone trials. This paper explores the regulatory and commercial challenges of implementing the first UK neighbourhood level 100% low-carbon hydrogen demonstration project. We draw on existing literature and action research to identify the key practical barriers currently hindering the ability of strategically important actors to accelerate the substitution of natural gas with low carbon hydrogen in local gas networks. This paper adds much needed contextual depth to existing generic and theoretical understandings of low-carbon hydrogen for heat transition feasibility. The learnings from pilot projects about the exclusion of hydrogen calorific value from the Local Distribution Zone calorific value calculation Special Purpose Vehicle companies holding of liability and future costs to consumers need to be quickly transferred into resilient operational practice or gas repurposing projects will continue to be less desirable than electrification using existing regulations and with more rapid delivery
Low-cost Hydrogen in the Future European Electricity System – Enabled by Flexibility in Time and Space
Nov 2022
Publication
The present study investigates four factors that govern the ability to supply hydrogen at a low cost in Europe: the scale of the hydrogen demand; the possibility to invest in large-scale hydrogen storage; process flexibility in hydrogen-consuming industries; and the geographical areas in which hydrogen demand arises. The influence of the hydrogen demand on the future European zero-emission electricity system is investigated by applying the cost-minimising electricity system investment model eNODE to hydrogen demand levels in the range of 0–2500 TWhH2. It is found that the majority of the future European hydrogen demand can be cost-effectively satisfied with VRE assuming that the expansion of wind and solar power is not hindered by a lack of social acceptance at a cost of around 60–70 EUR/MWhH2 (2.0–2.3 EUR/kgH2). The cost of hydrogen in Europe can be reduced by around 10 EUR/MWhH2 if the hydrogen consumption is positioned strategically in regions with good conditions for wind and solar power and a low electricity demand. The cost savings potential that can be obtained from full temporal flexibility of hydrogen consumption is 3-fold higher than that linked to strategic localisation of the hydrogen consumption. The cost of hydrogen per kg increases and the value of flexibility diminishes as the size of the hydrogen demand increases relative to the traditional demand for electricity and the available VRE resources. Low-cost hydrogen is thus achieved by implementing efficiency and flexibility measures for hydrogen consumers as well as increasing acceptance of VRE.
Political Economy of Green Hydrogen Rollout: A Global Perspective
Dec 2021
Publication
The present paper dwells on the role of green hydrogen in the transition towards climateneutral economies and reviews the central challenges for its emancipation as an economically viable source of energy. The study shows that countries with a substantial share of renewables in the energy mix advanced natural gas pipeline infrastructure and an advanced level of technological and economic development have a comparative advantage for the wider utilization of hydrogen in their national energy systems. The central conclusion this review paper is that a green hydrogen rollout in the developed and oil-exporting developing and emerging countries is not a risk for the rest of the world in terms of the increasing technological disparities and conservation of underdevelopment and concomitant socio-economic problems of the Global South. The targets anchored in Paris Agreement but even more in the EU Green Deal and the European Hydrogen Strategy will necessitate a substantial rollout of RESs in developing countries and especially in the countries of the African Union because of the prioritization of the African continent within the energy cooperation frameworks of the EU Green Deal and the EU Hydrogen Strategy. Hence the green hydrogen rollout will bridge the energy transition between Europe and Africa on the one hand and climate and development targets on the other.
Hydrogen Strategy Update to the Market: July 2022
Jul 2022
Publication
Low carbon hydrogen is our new home-grown super-fuel which will be vital for our energy security and to meet our legally binding commitment to achieve net zero by 2050. The UK Hydrogen Strategy published in August 2021 outlined a comprehensive roadmap for the development of a thriving UK hydrogen economy over the coming decade. In the British Energy Security Strategy published in April this year the government doubled the UK’s hydrogen production ambition to up to 10GW by 2030. This increased ambition cements our place firmly at the forefront of the global race to develop hydrogen as a secure low carbon replacement for fossil fuels in the transition to greater energy security and net zero. Since the publication of the UK Hydrogen Strategy we have continued to deliver on our commitments setting out new policy and funding for hydrogen across the value chain and bringing together the international community around shared hydrogen objectives to rapidly develop a global hydrogen economy. Hydrogen was a key component of the Net Zero Strategy COP26 and the British Energy Security Strategy. The Hydrogen Investment Package and opening of the £240 million Net Zero Hydrogen Fund in April marked a major step forward in delivering government support to drive further private investment into hydrogen production in the UK. To keep industry informed on the government’s ongoing work to develop the hydrogen economy we committed in the UK Hydrogen Strategy to producing regular updates to the market as our policy develops. In addition to offering an accessible ‘one stop shop’ of government policy development and support schemes these updates will provide industry and investors with further clarity on the direction of travel of hydrogen policy across the value chain so that government and industry can work together most effectively and with the necessary pace to build a world-leading low carbon hydrogen sector in the UK.
Clean Hydrogen Is a Challenge for Enterprises in the Era of Low-Emission and Zero-Emission Economy
Jan 2023
Publication
Hydrogen can be considered an innovative fuel that will revolutionize the energy sector and enable even more complete use of the potential of renewable sources. The aim of the paper is to present the challenges faced by companies and economies that will produce and use hydrogen. Thanks to the use of hydrogen in the energy transport and construction sectors it will be possible to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. By 2050 global demand for hydrogen will increase to 614 million metric tons a year and thanks to the use of hydrogen in energy transport and construction it will be possible to achieve climate neutrality. Depending on the method of hydrogen production the processes used and the final effects several groups can be distinguished marked with different colors. It is in this area of obtaining friendly hydrogen that innovative possibilities for its production open up. The costs of hydrogen production are also affected by network fees national tax systems availability and prices of carbon capture utilization and storage installations energy consumption rates by electrolyzers and transport methods. It is planned that 1 kg of hydrogen will cost USD 1. The study used the desk research method which made it possible to analyze a huge amount of descriptive data and numerical data.
Estimation of the Levelized Cost of Nuclear Hydrogen Production from Light Water Reactors in the United States
Aug 2022
Publication
In June 2021 the United States (US) Department of Energy (DOE) hosted the first-ever Hydrogen Shot Summit which lasted for two days. More than 3000 stockholders around the world were convened at the summit to discuss how low-cost clean hydrogen production would be a huge step towards solving climate change. Hydrogen is a dynamic fuel that can be used across all industrial sectors to lower the carbon intensity. By 2030 the summit hopes to have developed a means to reduce the current cost of clean hydrogen by 80%; i.e. to USD 1 per kilogram. Because of the importance of clean hydrogen towards carbon neutrality the overall DOE budget for Fiscal Year 2021 is USD 35.4 billion and the total budget for DOE hydrogen activities in Fiscal Year 2021 is USD 285 million representing 0.81% of the total DOE budget for 2021. The DOE hydrogen budget of 2021 is estimated to increase to USD 400 million in Fiscal Year 2022. The global hydrogen market is growing and the US is playing an active role in ensuring its growth. Depending on the electricity source used the electrolysis of hydrogen can have no greenhouse gas emissions. When assessing the advantages and economic viability of hydrogen production by electrolysis it is important to take into account the source of the necessary electricity as well as emissions resulting from electricity generation. In this study to evaluate the levelized cost of nuclear hydrogen production the International Atomic Energy Agency Hydrogen Economic Evaluation Program is used to model four types of LWRs: Exelon’s Nine Mile Point Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in New York; Palo Verde NPP in Arizona; Davis-Besse NPP in Ohio; and Prairie Island NPP in Minnesota. Each of these LWRs has a different method of hydrogen production. The results show that the total cost of hydrogen production for Exelon’s Nine Mile Point NPP Palo Verde NPP Davis-Besse NPP and Prairie Island NPP was 4.85 ± 0.66 4.77 ± 1.36 3.09 ± 1.19 and 0.69 ± 0.03 USD/kg respectively. These findings show that among the nuclear reactors the cost of nuclear hydrogen production using Exelon’s Nine Mile Point NPP reactor is the highest whereas the cost of nuclear hydrogen production using the Prairie Island NPP reactor is the lowest.
Economic Feasibility of Green Hydrogen in Providing Flexibility to Medium-voltage Distribution Grids in the Presence of Local-heat Systems
Nov 2022
Publication
The recent strong increase in the penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) in medium-voltage distribution grids (MVDNs) has raised the need for congestion management in such grids as they were not designed for this new condition. This paper examines to what extent producing green hydrogen through electrolyzers can profitably contribute to congestion alleviation in MVDNs in the presence of high amounts of RES as well as flexible consumers of electricity and a local heat system. To address this issue an incentive-based method for improving flexibility in MVDNs is used which is based on a single-leader–multiple-followers game formulated by bi-level mathematical programming. At the upper level the distribution system operator who is the leader of this game determines dynamic prices as incentives at each node based on the levels of generation and load. Next at the lower level providers of flexibility including producers using electrolyzers price-responsive power consumers heat consumers as well as heat producers respond to these incentives by reshaping their output and consumption patterns. The model is applied to a region in the North of The Netherlands. The obtained results demonstrate that converting power to hydrogen can be an economically efficient way to reduce congestion in MVDNs when there is a high amount of RES. However the economic value of electrolyzers as providers of flexibility to MVDNs decreases when more other options for flexibility provision exist.
Prospects of Integrated Photovoltaic‐Fuel Cell Systems in a Hydrogen Economy: A Comprehensive Review
Oct 2021
Publication
Integrated photovoltaic‐fuel cell (IPVFC) systems amongst other integrated energy generation methodologies are renewable and clean energy technologies that have received diverse re‐ search and development attentions over the last few decades due to their potential applications in a hydrogen economy. This article systematically updates the state‐of‐the‐art of IPVFC systems and provides critical insights into the research and development gaps needed to be filled/addressed to advance these systems towards full commercialization. Design methodologies renewable energy‐ based microgrid and off‐grid applications energy management strategies optimizations and the prospects as self‐sustaining power sources were covered. IPVFC systems could play an important role in the upcoming hydrogen economy since they depend on solar hydrogen which has almost zero emissions during operation. Highlighted herein are the advances as well as the technical challenges to be surmounted to realize numerous potential applications of IPVFC systems in unmanned aerial vehicles hybrid electric vehicles agricultural applications telecommunications desalination synthesis of ammonia boats buildings and distributed microgrid applications.
Hydrogen Europe Podcast: Wind and Hydrogen - Delivering REPower EU
Jun 2022
Publication
In this episode of Hydrogen Europe's podcast "Hydrogen the first element" our CEO Jorgo Chatzimarkakis discusses with Wind Europe's CEO Giles Dickson. Starting off on how Giles joined Wind Europe the two CEOs discuss the responsibilities their industries have in the new energy strategy set in the REPowerEU as well as the fruitful synergies between hydrogen and wind.
Potential of Power-to-Methane in the EU Energy Transition to a Low Carbon System Using Cost Optimization
Oct 2018
Publication
Power-to-Methane (PtM) can provide flexibility to the electricity grid while aiding decarbonization of other sectors. This study focuses specifically on the methanation component of PtM in 2050. Scenarios with 80–95% CO2 reduction by 2050 (vs. 1990) are analyzed and barriers and drivers for methanation are identified. PtM arises for scenarios with 95% CO2 reduction no CO2 underground storage and low CAPEX (75 €/kW only for methanation). Capacity deployed across EU is 40 GW (8% of gas demand) for these conditions which increases to 122 GW when liquefied methane gas (LMG) is used for marine transport. The simultaneous occurrence of all positive drivers for PtM which include limited biomass potential low Power-to-Liquid performance use of PtM waste heat among others can increase this capacity to 546 GW (75% of gas demand). Gas demand is reduced to between 3.8 and 14 EJ (compared to ∼20 EJ for 2015) with lower values corresponding to scenarios that are more restricted. Annual costs for PtM are between 2.5 and 10 bln€/year with EU28’s GDP being 15.3 trillion €/year (2017). Results indicate that direct subsidy of the technology is more effective and specific than taxing the fossil alternative (natural gas) if the objective is to promote the technology. Studies with higher spatial resolution should be done to identify specific local conditions that could make PtM more attractive compared to an EU scale.
The Impact of Economic, Energy, and Environmental Factors on the Development of the Hydrogen Economy
Aug 2021
Publication
This article attempts to model interdependencies between socio-economic energy and environmental factors with selected data characterizing the development of the hydrogen economy. The study applies Spearman’s correlation and a linear regression model to estimate the influence of gross domestic product population final energy consumption renewable energy and CO2 emission on chosen hydrogen indicators—production patents energy technology research development and demonstration budgets. The study was conducted in nine countries selected for their actions towards a hydrogen economy based on analyses of national strategies policies research and development programs and roadmaps. The results confirm the statistically significant impact of the chosen indicators which are the drivers for the development of the hydrogen economy from 2008 to 2018. Moreover the empirical results show that different characteristics in each country contribute to the development of the hydrogen economy vision
Financing Efficiency Evaluation and Influencing Factors of Hydrogen Energy Listed Enterprises in China
Jan 2022
Publication
Existing studies of financing efficiency concentrate on capital structure and a single external environment or internal management characteristic. Few of the studies include the internal and external financing environments at the same time for hydrogen energy industry financing efficiency. This paper used the data envelopment analysis (DEA) model and the Malmquist index to measure the financing efficiency of 70 hydrogen energy listed enterprises in China from 2014 to 2020 from both static and dynamic perspectives. Then a tobit model was constructed to explore the influence of external environment and internal factors on the financing efficiency. The contributions of this paper are studying the internal and external financing environments and integrating financing cost efficiency and capital allocation efficiency into the financing efficiency of hydrogen energy enterprises. The results show that firstly the financing efficiency of China’s hydrogen energy listed enterprises showed an upward trend during the years 2014–2020. Secondly China’s hydrogen energy enterprises mainly gather in the eastern coastal areas and their financing efficiency is more than that in western areas. Thirdly the regional economic development level enterprise scale financing structure capital utilization efficiency and profitability have significant effects on the financing efficiency. These results can promote the achievement of “carbon neutrality” in China.
A Step towards the Hydrogen Economy—A Life Cycle Cost Analysis of A Hydrogen Refueling Station
May 2017
Publication
This study was aimed to define a methodology based on existing literature and evaluate the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) for a decentralized hydrogen refueling station (HRS) in Halle Belgium. The results are based on a comprehensive data collection along with real cost information. The main results indicated that a LCOH of 10.3 €/kg at the HRS can be reached over a lifetime of 20 years if an average electricity cost of 0.04 €/kWh could be achieved and if the operating hours are maximized. Furthermore if the initial capital costs can be reduced by 80% in the case of direct subsidy the LCOH could even fall to 6.7 €/k
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