Policy & Socio-Economics
Global Warming Impacts of the Transition from Fossil Fuel Conversion and Infrastructure to Hydrogen
Jul 2025
Publication
Emissions from fossil fuel extraction conveyance and combustion are among the most significant causes of air pollution and climate change leading to arguably the most acute crises mankind has ever faced. The transition from fossil fuel-based energy systems to hydrogen is essential for meeting a portion of global decarbonization goals. Hydrogen offers certain features such as high gravimetric energy density that is required for heavy-duty shipping and freight applications and chemical properties such as high temperature combustion and reducing capabilities that are required for steel chemicals and fertilizer industries. However hydrogen that leaks has indirect climate implications stemming from atmospheric interactions that are emerging as a critical area of research. This study reviews recent literature on hydrogen’s global warming potential (GWP) highlighting its indirect contributions to radiative forcing via methane’s extended atmospheric lifetime tropospheric ozone formation and stratospheric water vapor formation. The 100-year GWP (GWP100) of hydrogen estimated to range between 8 and 12.8 underscores the need to minimize leakage throughout the hydrogen supply chain to maximize the climate benefits of using hydrogen instead of fossil fuels. Comparisons with methane reveal hydrogen’s shorter atmospheric lifetime and reduced long-term warming effects establishing it as a viable substitute for fossil fuels in sectors such as steel cement and heavy-duty transport. The analysis emphasizes the importance of accurate leakage assessments robust policy frameworks and advanced infrastructure to ensure hydrogen realizes its potential as a sustainable energy carrier that displaces the use of fossil fuels. Future research is recommended to refine climate models better understand atmospheric sinks and hydrogen leakage phenomena and develop effective strategies to minimize hydrogen emissions paving the way for environmentally sound use of hydrogen.
Who Is in and How? A Comprehensive Study on Stakeholder Perspectives in the Green Hydrogen Sector in Luxembourg
Oct 2025
Publication
Green hydrogen has the potential to contribute to the decarbonization of the fossil fuel industry and its development is expected to increase in the coming years. The social dynamics among the various actors in the green hydrogen sector are studied to understand their public perception. Using the technological innovation system research approach for the stakeholder analysis and the qualitative thematic analysis method for the interviews with experts this study presents an overview of the actors in the green hydrogen sector and their relations in Luxembourg. As a central European country with strategic political and geographic relevance Luxembourg offers a timely case for analyzing public perception before the large-scale implementation of green hydrogen. Observing this early stage allows for future comparative insights as the national hydrogen strategy progresses. Results show high expectations for green hydrogen in mobility and industry but concerns persist over infrastructure costs safety and public awareness. Regional stakeholders demonstrate a strong willingness to collaborate recognizing that local public acceptance still requires effort particularly in areas such as clear and inclusive communication sharing knowledge and fostering trust. These findings provide practical insights for stakeholder engagement strategies and theoretical contributions to the study of social dynamics in sustainability transitions.
Socio-political Determinants of Public Acceptance of Green Hydrogen
Mar 2025
Publication
Green hydrogen produced through renewable energy sources is emerging as a pivotal element in global energy transitions. Despite its potential public acceptance remains a critical barrier to its large-scale implementation. This study aims to identify the socio-political and demographic determinants of public acceptance of green hydrogen. Using advanced variable selection methods including ridge lasso and elastic net regression we analyzed perceptions of climate change trust in government policies and demographic characteristics. The findings reveal that individuals prioritizing climate change over economic growth perceiving its impacts as severe and recognizing it as South Korea’s most pressing issue are more likely to accept green hydrogen. Trust in the government’s climate change response also emerged as a key factor. Demographic characteristics such as younger age higher income advanced education smaller family size and conservative political ideology were significantly associated with greater acceptance. These results highlight the importance of raising public awareness about the urgency of climate change and enhancing trust in government policies to promote societal acceptance of green hydrogen. Policymakers should consider these factors when developing strategies to advance the adoption of green hydrogen technologies and foster sustainable energy transitions.
Digital Twin Framework for Energy Transition in Gas Networks Based on Open-Source Tools: Methodology and Case Study in Southern Italy
Oct 2025
Publication
The ongoing digitalization of energy infrastructure is a crucial enabler for improving efficiency reliability and sustainability in gas distribution networks especially in the context of decarbonization and the integration of alternative energy carriers (e.g. renewable gases including biogas green hydrogen). This study presents the development and application of a Digital Twin framework for a real-world gas distribution network developed using open-source tools. The proposed methodology covers the entire digital lifecycle: from data acquisition through smart meters and GIS mapping to 3D modelling and simulation using tools such as QGIS FreeCAD and GasNetSim. Consumption data are collected processed and harmonized via Python-based workflows hourly simulations of network operation including pressure flow rate and gas quality indicators like the Wobbe Index. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of the Digital Twin in accurately replicating real network behavior and supporting scenario analyses for the introduction of greener energy vectors such as hydrogen or biomethane. The case study highlights the flexibility and transparency of the workflow as well as the critical importance of data quality and availability. The framework provides a robust basis for advanced network management optimization and planning offering practical tools to support the energy transition in the gas sector.
The Total Costs of Energy Transitions With and Without Nuclear Energy
Oct 2025
Publication
Within energy system analysis there is discourse regarding the role and economic benefits of nuclear energy in terms of overall system costs. The reported findings range from considerable drawbacks to substantial benefits depending on the chosen models scenarios and underlying assumptions. This article addresses existing gaps by demonstrating how subtle variations in model assumptions significantly impact analysis outcomes. Historically uncertainties associated with nuclear energy costs have been well documented whereas renewable energy costs have steadily declined and have been relatively predictable. However as land availability increasingly constrains future renewable expansion development is shifting from onshore to offshore locations where cost uncertainties are greater and anticipated cost reductions are less reliable. This study emphasizes this fundamental shift highlighting how uncertainties in future renewable energy costs could strengthen the economic case of nuclear energy within fully integrated sector-coupled energy systems especially when the costs of all technologies and weather conditions are set in the moderate range. Focusing specifically on Denmark this article presents a thorough sensitivity analysis of renewable energy costs and weather conditions within anticipated future ranges providing a nuanced perspective on the role of nuclear energy. Ultimately the findings underscore that when examining total annual system costs the differences between scenarios with low and high nuclear energy shares are minimal and are within ±5 % for the baseline assumptions while updated adjustments reduce this variation to ±1 %.
Techno-Economic Analysis of Marine Hybrid Clusters for Use in Chile and Mexico
Oct 2025
Publication
This study assesses the feasibility and profitability of marine hybrid clusters combining wave energy converters (WECs) and offshore wind turbines (OWTs) to power households and marine aquaculture. Researchers analyzed two coastal sites: La Serena Chile with high and consistent wave energy resources and Ensenada Mexico with moderate and more variable wave power. Two WEC technologies Wave Dragon (WD) and Pelamis (PEL) were evaluated alongside lithium-ion battery storage and green hydrogen production for surplus energy storage. Results show that La Serena’s high wave power (26.05 kW/m) requires less hybridization than Ensenada’s (13.88 kW/m). The WD device in La Serena achieved the highest energy production while PEL arrays in Ensenada were more effective. The PEL-OWT cluster proved the most cost-effective in Ensenada whereas the WD-OWT performed better in La Serena. Supplying electricity for seaweed aquaculture particularly in La Serena proves more profitable than for households. Ensenada’s clusters generate more surplus electricity suitable for the electricity market or hydrogen conversion. This study emphasizes the importance of tailoring emerging WEC systems to local conditions optimizing hybridization strategies and integrating consolidated industries such as aquaculture to enhance both economic and environmental benefits.
Early Transition to Near-zero Emissions Electricity and Carbon Dioxide Removal is Essential to Achieve Net-zero Emissions at a Low Cost in Australia
Aug 2025
Publication
Achieving net-zero emissions requires major changes across a nation’s economy energy and land systems particularly due to sectors where emissions are difficult to eliminate. Here we adapt two global scenarios from the International Energy Agency—the net-zero emissions by 2050 and the Stated Policies Scenario—using an integrated numerical economic-energy model tailored to Australia. We explore how emissions may evolve by sector and identify key technologies for decarbonisation. Our results show that a rapid shift to near-zero emissions electricity is central to reducing costs and enabling wider emissions reductions. From 2030 onwards carbon removal through land management and engineered solutions such as direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage becomes critical. Australia is also well-positioned to become a global supplier of clean energy such as hydrogen made using renewable electricity helping reduce emissions beyond its borders.
Scenario-based Modelling of Industrial Energy Demand and GHG Emissions: A 2050 Outlook for Slovenia
Oct 2025
Publication
Addressing GHG emissions in industrial sectors is crucial for developed nations’ energy and environmental policies. European countries use diverse strategies to mitigate industrial GHG impacts with energy models evaluating national objectives and supporting policy implementation. A new hybrid bottom-up technology-oriented simulation model has been developed for Slovenia’s industrial sector focusing on energy-intensive industries like paper metal chemical and cement production. This model linked with the macroeconomic GEM model assesses the impacts of GHG reduction measures on the national economy. This paper introduces the Reference Energy System model for the industrial sector REES SLO aiding Slovenia’s NECP update. It details input parameters model structure proposed measures peculiarities of energy-intensive industries and calculation results. The findings indicate that decarbonizing Slovenia’s industrial sector is feasible but demands immediate policy intervention substantial investments and a collaborative approach among stakeholders. Advanced technologies such as carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) hydrogen-based solutions and enhanced energy efficiency measures are essential components of this transition. The integration of renewable energy sources (RES) and circular economy principles further strengthens pathways toward sustainability. The REES IND model underscores the importance of aligning industrial decarbonization strategies with broader economic and environmental objectives. It provides a comprehensive framework for policymakers to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed measures and their long-term impacts. Achieving these goals requires a phased approach beginning with energy efficiency improvements and progressing to structural changes and advanced technologies. The model’s insights pave the way for sustainable industrial transformation aligning Slovenia’s industrial sector with national and European Union climate objectives.
Pathways to Environmental Sustainability through Energy Efficiency: A Strategic Next Energy Vision for Sustainable Development by 2050
Oct 2025
Publication
As the global push for carbon neutrality accelerates energy efficiency has become essential for sustainable development especially for nations like Nigeria that face rising energy demands and significant environmental challenges. This study explores how integrating energy efficiency with carbon neutrality can support Nigeria’s strategic energy goals while offering global lessons for other countries facing similar challenges focusing on key sectors including industry transport and power generation. The study systematically examines the impacts of renewable energy (RE) technologies like solar wind and hydropower—alongside policy reforms technological innovations and demand-side management strategies to advance energy efficiency in Nigeria. Key findings include the identification of strategic policy frameworks technological solutions and the transformative role of green hydrogen in decarbonizing hard-to-electrify sectors. The study also emphasizes the importance of international climate finance decentralized RE systems like solar mini-grids for improving energy access and economic opportunities for job creation in the RE sector. Furthermore it highlights the need for behavioral changes community engagement and consistent policy implementation to address infrastructure gaps and drive energy efficiency goals. The novelty of this research lies in its scenario-based analysis of Nigeria’s low-carbon transition detailing both the opportunities and challenges such as policy inconsistencies infrastructure deficits and financial constraints. The findings stress the importance of international collaboration technological advancements and targeted investments to overcome these challenges. By offering actionable insights and strategic recommendations this study provides a roadmap for policymakers industry stakeholders and researchers to drive Nigeria towards a sustainable carbon-neutral future by 2050.
A Review and Inventory of U.S. Hydrogen Emissions for Production, Distribution and Storage
Nov 2025
Publication
In response to the growing global interest in hydrogen as an energy carrier this study provides the first attempt to develop a baseline inventory of U.S. hydrogen emissions from production distribution and storage. The scope of this study was limited to pure hydrogen emissions and excludes emissions from low purity hydrogen streams and carriers. A detailed literature search was conducted utilizing various greenhouse gas emissions inventory protocol principles and guidelines to consolidate a list of activity data and emission factors. The best available activity data and emission factors were then selected via a Multi-Criteria-Based Decision Making Method named Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution or modelled using best-engineering estimates. The study estimated total U.S. hydrogen emissions of 0.063 MMTA with emission bounds ranging from 0.02 to 0.11 MMTA. Given the total estimated H2 production capacity of 7.97 MMTA the study estimates a total U.S. hydrogen emission rate for production distribution and storage of 0.79% (0.26%–1.32%). To reduce the uncertainty in the estimated total hydrogen emissions future work should be conducted to measure facility-level hydrogen emission factors across multiple sectors. The inventory framework developed in this study can serve as a living document that can be updated and enhanced as more empirical data is obtained. This study also provides detailed insights regarding key emission or leakage sources and causes from each supply chain stage. The insights and conclusions from this study can provide direction for hydrogen production companies and safety professionals as they develop hydrogen emission mitigation measures and controls.
From Investment to Impact: Exploring Socio-economic Prospect of Hydrogen Investment in Tees Valley, UK
Oct 2025
Publication
Financial viability is fundamental for investment success however long run sustainable investment relies on delivering tangible socio-economic benefits that foster societal acceptance enhancing community welfare and well-being. This study developed a quantitative model to evaluate the socio-economic impact of a proposed 1 GW green and 2 GW blue hydrogen investment in Tees Valley UK from 2027 to 2035. We introduced the socioeconomic impact (SEI) ratio defined as the ratio of socio-economic impact to the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) to illustrate the significance of socio-economic impact beyond financial returns. Findings indicate that the cumulative environmental and economic impact of green hydrogen amounted to £1.5 ± 0.5 bn and £1.35 ± 0.27 bn respectively with an employment impact of £269 ± 28 mn. In contrast the proposed blue hydrogen investment is expected to deliver £2.9 ± 0.9 bn environmental impact £1.84 ± 0.37 bn economic impact and £212 ± 26 mn employment social impact. The SEI ratio of green hydrogen was found to range between 48 % and 62 % and 60 %–79 % for blue hydrogen suggesting overall SEI ratio of approximately 60 % for combined green and blue investment. Sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulation revealed that the results are particularly sensitive to the Gross Value Added (GVA) emission and employment factors. These findings highlight the importance of integrating socio-economic considerations into hydrogen planning investment strategies and decision-making to optimise environmental societal and economic outcomes.
An Empirical Study of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Citizens' Intentions about the Adoption of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles
Oct 2025
Publication
A comprehensive understanding of consumer preferences and demand factors is essential for successfully implementing demand-side strategies for alternative energy solutions such as hydrogen. This study aims to identify the key determinants influencing the adoption propensity for Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Developing a conceptual framework to organise the key factors influencing consumers’ decisions to adopt or reject this technology. Using data from an online survey of 384 prospective customers we employed structural equation modelling (SEM) via Smart-PLS 4.1 to analyze consumer intent. The findings reveal that perceived benefits barriers opinions and governmental initiatives have a significant impact on the likelihood of HFCV adoption. The study emphasises the significance of collaborative efforts among key stakeholders including manufacturers hydrogen producers research institutions and financial entities in addressing challenges and advancing the development of the hydrogen transportation ecosystem in KSA. Financial incentives and subsidies such as purchasing subsidies awareness and reduced registration costs for HFCVs may be instituted.
Nodal Marginal Price Decomposition Mechanism for the Hydrogen Energy Market Considering Hydrogen Transportation Characteristics
Oct 2025
Publication
With the growing significance of hydrogen in the global energy transition research on its pricing mechanisms has become increasingly crucial. Focusing on hydrogen markets predominantly supplied by electrolytic production this study proposes a nodal marginal hydrogen price decomposition algorithm that explicitly incorporates the time-delay dynamics inherent in hydrogen transmission. A four-dimensional price formation framework is established comprising the energy component network loss component congestion component and time-delay component. To address the nonconvex optimization challenges arising in the market-clearing model an improved second-order cone programming method is introduced. This method effectively reduces computational complexity through the reconstruction of time-coupled constraints and reformulation of the Weymouth equation. On this basis the analytical expression of the nodal marginal hydrogen price is rigorously derived elucidating how transmission dynamics influence each price component. Empirical studies using a modified Belgian 20-node system demonstrate that the proposed pricing mechanism dynamically adapts to load variations with hydrogen prices exhibiting a strong correlation with electricity cost fluctuations. The results validate the efficacy and superiority of the proposed approach in hydrogen energy market applications. This study provides a theoretical foundation for designing efficient and transparent pricing mechanisms in emerging hydrogen markets.
Hydrogen Power Development: A Comparative Review of National Strategies and the Role of Energy in Scaling Green Hydrogen
Oct 2025
Publication
This review explores the evolving role of hydrogen in global decarbonization analysing national hydrogen strategies value chain developments and future market potential. Through a comprehensive review of policy frameworks market trends and technology pathways the paper evaluates hydrogen’s role in decarbonising sectors such as steel ammonia methanol refining transport and power generation. The study highlights the expected growth in global hydrogen demand projected cost reductions and advancements in production technologies including electrolysis and carbon capture-integrated hydrogen production. While green hydrogen offers a sustainable pathway challenges remain in infrastructure development energy efficiency and the integration of hydrogen into existing energy networks. The paper considers the economic and technological factors affecting international hydrogen trade. Despite more than 30 national hydrogen strategies being in place significant challenges remain particularly in scaling renewable electricity and infrastructure to meet growing hydrogen demand projected to reach up to 600 Mt by 2050. Key players such as Australia Norway and the Middle East are positioning themselves as major hydrogen exporters by leveraging their abundant natural resources and strategic infrastructure. On the demand side countries like Japan South Korea Germany and the Netherlands are emerging as leading importers investing heavily in hydrogen hubs and import terminals to secure future energy supplies. The expansion of hydrogen storage and transportation alongside investments in large-scale hydrogen hubs will be critical for market growth. Additionally the study emphasize the need for policy alignment strategic investments and cross-border cooperation to accelerate hydrogen adoption. Hydrogen can become a key element of the global clean energy transition by addressing optimal energy consumption and by leveraging renewable resources.
Development of Newly Designed Biomass-based Electrodes used in Water Electrolysis for Clean Hydrogen Production
Oct 2025
Publication
The conventional electrolysis is recognized as a mature and promising hydrogen (H2) production technology but there is still a strong need for further performance improvement. In this regard achieving an effective H2 evolution reaction at the cathode requires costly catalysts such as platinum and various catalyst-modified electrode materials. Nevertheless these materials are expensive and involve complex production procedures. Due to an increasing interest in deploying biomaterial-based cathodes as potential alternatives to conventional cathode materials we make the focus of this study on such materials and a graphite-loaded bioelectrode is in this regard synthesized for electrolysis application for effective H2 production. The surface morphology and electrochemical activity of the produced biocathode are characterized. Our results show that the H2 production performance of the system improves with the increasing graphite dosage on the biocathode and with the applied voltage ranging from 2 to 6 V. At improved operating conditions the highest H2 production rate of 1000 ppm (8.18 mg/m3 min) is obtained using a 1.5 g graphite-loaded biocathode at an applied voltage of 6 V. Consequently the produced graphite-loaded biocathode can be a promising option for sustainable and effective H2 production with waste minimization owing to its high conductivity low-cost and good stability.
Evaluating Greenhouse Gas Reduction Efficiency Through Hydrogen Ecosystem Implementation from a Life-Cycle Perspective
Nov 2025
Publication
With growing global demand for sustainable decarbonization hydrogen energy systems have emerged as a key pillar in achieving carbon neutrality. This study assesses the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction efficiency of Republic of Korea’s hydrogen ecosystem from a life-cycle perspective focusing on production and utilization stages. Using empirical data—including the national hydrogen supply structure fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) deployment and hydrogen power generation records the analysis compares hydrogenbased systems with conventional fossil fuel systems. Results show that current hydrogen production methods mainly by-product and reforming-based hydrogen emit an average of 6.31 kg CO2-eq per kg H2 providing modest GHG benefits over low-carbon fossil fuels but enabling up to a 77% reduction when replacing high-emission sources like anthracite. In the utilization phase grey hydrogen-fueled stationary fuel cells emit more GHGs than the national grid. By contrast FCEVs demonstrate a 58.2% GHG reduction compared to internal combustion vehicles with regional variability. Importantly this study omits the distribution phase (storage and transport) due to data heterogeneity and a lack of reliable datasets which limits the comprehensiveness of the LCA. Future research should incorporate sensitivity or scenario-based analyses such as comparisons between pipeline transport and liquefied hydrogen transport to better capture distribution-phase impacts. The study concludes that the environmental benefit of hydrogen systems is highly dependent on production pathways end-use sectors and regional conditions. Strategic deployment of green hydrogen regional optimization and the explicit integration of distribution and storage in future assessments are essential to enhancing hydrogen’s contribution to national carbon neutrality goals.
The Energy Transition in Colombia: Government Projections and Realistic Scenarios
Nov 2025
Publication
Energy transition is crucial for climate change mitigation and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and has been a key government focus in Colombia since 2022 which must carefully consider its energy roadmap. This study evaluates three potential scenarios for achieving nearly 100% renewable energy by 2035: replacing fossil fuels with biofuels using hydrogen for transport and industrial heat and relying entirely on renewable electricity. This paper discusses these scenarios’ technical economic and social challenges including the need for substantial investments in renewable energy technologies and energy storage systems to replace fossil fuels. The discussion highlights the importance of balancing energy security environmental concerns and economic growth while addressing social priorities such as poverty eradication and access to healthcare and education. The results show that while the Colombian government’s energy transition goals are commendable a rapid energy transition requires 4 to 8 times the government’s projected 34 billion USD investment making it economically unfeasible. Notably focusing on wind photovoltaic and green hydrogen systems which need storage is too costly. Furthermore replacing fossil fuels in transport is impractical though increasing biofuel production could partially substitute fossil fuels. Less energy-intensive alternatives like trains and waterway transport should be considered to reduce energy demand and carbon footprint.
Green Hydrogen Market and Green Cryptocurrencies: A Dynamic Correlation Analysis
Nov 2025
Publication
The urgent need to mitigate climate change has elevated green hydrogen as a sustainable alternative to fossil fuels while green cryptocurrencies have emerged to address the environmental concerns of traditional cryptocurrency mining. This study investigates the dynamic correlation between the green hydrogen market and selected green cryptocurrencies (Cardano Stellar Hedera Algorand and Chia) from July 2021 to April 2024 utilizing the Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH (DCC-GARCH) model with robustness checks using EGARCH and GJR-GARCH specifications. Our findings reveal significant correlations with peaks reaching up to 50% in 2022 a period likely influenced by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Subsequently a decline in these correlations was observed in 2023. These results underscore the interconnectedness of sustainability-driven markets suggesting potential contagion effects during periods of global instability. The high persistence of correlation shocks (α + β values approaching unity) indicates that correlation regimes tend to be long- lasting with important implications for portfolio diversification and risk management strategies. Robustness checks using EGARCH and GJR-GARCH specifications confirmed qualitatively similar patterns reinforcing the validity of our findings into the evolving landscape of green finance and energy
A European Review of the Potential Role of Industrial Clusters in the Energy System When Leveraging Energy Synergies
Nov 2025
Publication
Concerns about the competitiveness of European industry led to the publication of the Draghi report. One of his recommendations is to install regional green industrial clusters around energy-intensive companies. The report identifies three benefit categories each corresponding to typical industrial symbiosis cases: improved investment cases by shared local low-carbon energy generation improved investment cases by shared infrastructure and improved energy flows for increased resource efficiency. Industrial clusters hold untapped potential to advance the energy transition and climate neutrality. However it is still unknown how and if this potential will ever be reached nor how scalable and replicable the benefits will be. This review paper aims to take a first step in exploring the potential role of industrial clusters in the energy system by exposing the research state of the art in academic literature. A literature review is performed in line with the three benefit categories according to Draghi to understand the enablers and barriers of potential synergies and their impact on the energy system. Afterwards the scalability is assessed by positioning the European industrial clusters in the larger renewable energy landscape. To illustrate the global interest a brief reflection is made on references to industrial clusters in the policy of non-European regions. The work concludes with interesting leads for future research to further advance knowledge on the importance of industrial clusters in the energy system and to stimulate the implementation of energy synergies.
Sustainable Power System Transition Pathways: Regional Decarbonisation and Resource Conservation Aided by Small Modular Reactors
Oct 2025
Publication
Clean energy technologies offer promising pathways for low-carbon transitions yet their feasibility remains uncertain particularly in rapidly developing regions. This study develops a Factorial Multi-Stochastic Optimization-driven Equilibrium (FMOE) model to assess the economic and environmental impacts of clean power deployment. Using Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) in Guangdong China as a case study the model reveals that SMRs can reduce system costs and alleviate GDP losses supporting provincial-level Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). If offshore wind capital costs fall to 40 % of SMRs’ SMR deployment may no longer be necessary after 2030. Otherwise SMRs could supply 22 % of capacity by 2040. The FMOE model provides a robust adaptable framework for evaluating emerging technologies under uncertainty and supports sustainable power planning across diverse regional contexts. This study offers valuable insights into the resource and economic implications of clean energy strategies contributing to global carbon neutrality and efficient energy system design.
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