Hydrogen for Long-haul Road Freight: A Realist Retroductive Assessment

This study focuses on arguably the most contentious choice of energy supply option available for decarbonizing general-purpose long-haul road freight: hydrogen. For operators, infrastructure providers, energy providers and vehicle manufacturers to make the investments necessary to enable this transition, it is essential to evaluate the feasibility of individual energy supply choices. A literature review is conducted identifying ten requirements for an energy supply choice to be feasible, which are then translated into “what would need to be true” conditions for hydrogen to meet these requirements. Considering these, evidence from literature is used to assess the likelihood of each condition becoming true within the lifespan of a vehicle bought today. It is concluded that it is unlikely that hydrogen will become feasible in this time frame, meaning it can be disregarded as a current vehicle purchase consideration, as it will not undermine the competitiveness or resale value of a vehicle using a different energy source bought today. There are two principal innovations in the study approach: the consideration of socio-technical and political as well as techno-economic factors; and the application of realist retroductive option assessment. While not necessary to address the research question regarding hydrogen, a realist retroductive assessment is also presented for other prominent low carbon energy source options: battery electric, electric road systems (ERS) and biofuels; and the conditions under which these options could be feasible are considered.