United Kingdom

This report responds to a request from the Governments of the UK Wales and Scotland asking the Committee to reassess the UK’s long-term emissions targets. Our new emissions scenarios draw on ten new research projects three expert advisory groups and reviews of the work of the IPCC and others.<br/>The conclusions are supported by detailed analysis published in the Net Zero Technical Report that has been carried out for each sector of the economy plus consideration of F-gas emissions and greenhouse gas removals.

This is the second document of a two-part review of the Fourth Carbon Budget which covers 2023 to 2027. The Fourth Carbon Budget agreed by the Government in June 2011 was scheduled to be reviewed in 2014. The first part of the review is available here: The Fourth Carbon Budget Review – part 1: assessment of climate risk and the international response (November 2013).<br/>According to the Climate Change Act 2008 carbon budgets can only be altered if there is a significant change in circumstances upon which the budget was set. Any such change in circumstances must be demonstrated through evidence and analysis.<br/>The Fourth Carbon Budget Review – part 2 considers the impacts of meeting the 2023-2027 budget. The review concludes that the impacts are small and manageable and identifies broader benefits associated with meeting the fourth carbon budget including: improved energy security improved air quality and reduced noise pollution.

This report sets out our advice on the fifth carbon budget covering the period 2028-2032 as required under Section 4 of the Climate Change Act; the Government will propose draft legislation for the fifth budget in summer 2016.

This report for the CCC by Madano and Element Energy assesses the public acceptability of two alternative low-carbon technologies for heating the home: hydrogen heating and heat pumps.

These technologies could potentially replace natural gas in many UK households as part of the government’s efforts to decrease carbon emissions in the UK.

The report’s key findings are:

• carbon emissions reduction is viewed as an important issue but there is limited awareness of the need to decarbonise household heating or the implications of switching over to low-carbon heating technologies
• acceptability of both heating technologies is limited by a lack of perceived tangible consumer benefit which has the potential to drive scepticism towards the switch over more generally
• heating technology preferences are not fixed at this stage although heat pumps appear to be the favoured option in this research studythree overarching factors were identified as influencing preferences for heating technologies.

These factors manifested differently for different people meaning that the same factor could lead one person to prefer heat pumps and another to prefer hydrogen depending on their overall heating preferences and understanding of the two technologies. The factors are:

• perceptions of the negative installation burden
• familiarity with the lived experience of using the technologies for heating
• perceptions of how well the technologies would meet modern heating needs both hydrogen heating and heat pumps face significant challenges to secure public acceptability

The CCC has established a variety of viable scenarios in which UK decarbonisation targets can be met. Each has consequences for the way in which the UK’s gas network infrastructure is utilised. This report considers the implications of decarbonisation for the future regulation of the gas grid.<br/>The CCC’s 5th Carbon Budget envisaged different scenarios that would enable the UK to meet its emissions targets for 2050. These scenarios represent holistic analyses based on internally consistent combinations of different technologies which could deliver carbon reductions across different sectors of the economy.<br/>The CCC’s scenarios incorporate projections of the demand for natural gas to 2050. The scenarios imply that the volume of throughput on the gas networks1 and the nature and location of network usage is likely to change significantly to meet emissions targets. They are also characterised by significant uncertainty.<br/>Under some decarbonisation scenarios gas networks could be re-purposed to supply hydrogen instead of natural gas meaning there would be ongoing need for network infrastructure.<br/>In other scenarios gas demand in buildings is largely replaced by electric alternatives meaning portions of the low pressure gas distribution networks could be decommissioned.<br/>Patchwork scenarios are also possible in which there is a mixture of these outcomes across the country.<br/>In this project the CCC wished to assess the potential implications for gas networks under these different demand scenarios; and evaluate the associated challenges for Government and regulatory policy. The challenge for BEIS and Ofgem is how to regulate in a way that keeps options open while uncertainty persists about the best solution for the UK; and at the same time how best to make policy and regulatory decisions which would serve to reduce this uncertainty. Both Government and Ofgem have policy and regulatory levers that they can use – and we identify and evaluate such levers in this report.

For the UK to meet their national target of net zero emissions as part of the central Paris Agreement target further emphasis needs to be placed on decarbonizing public transport and moving away from personal transport (conventionally fuelled vehicles (CFVs) and electric vehicles (EVs)). Electric buses (EBs) and hydrogen buses (HBs) have the potential to fulfil requirements if powered from low carbon renewable energy sources.

A comparison of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions produced from conventionally fuelled buses (CFB) EBs and HBs between 2017 and 2050 under four National Grid electricity scenarios was conducted. In addition emissions per person at different vehicle capacity levels (100% 75% 50% and 25%) were projected for CFBs HBs EBs and personal transport assuming a maximum of 80 passengers per bus and four per personal vehicle.

Results indicated that CFVs produced 30 g CO₂km⁻¹ per person compared to 16.3 g CO₂ km⁻¹ per person by CFBs by 2050. At 100% capacity under the two-degree scenario CFB emissions were 36 times higher than EBs 9 times higher than HBs and 12 times higher than EVs in 2050. Cumulative emissions under all electricity scenarios remained lower for EBs and HBs.

Policy makers need to focus on encouraging a modal shift from personal transport towards sustainable public transport primarily EBs as the lowest level emitting vehicle type. Simple electrification of personal vehicles will not meet the required targets. Simultaneously CFBs need to be replaced with EBs and HBs if the UK is going to meet emission targets.

This is the Committee’s fifth report on Scotland’s progress towards meeting emission reduction targets as requested by Scottish Ministers under the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009.<br/>The Scottish Act sets a long-term target to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by at least 80% in 2050 relative to 1990 with an interim target to reduce emissions by 42% in 2020. Secondary legislation passed in October 2010 and October 2011 also set a series of annual emission reduction targets for 2010 to 2022 and 2023 to 2027 respectively. We advised the Scottish Government on annual targets for the period 2028 to 2032 in March 2016 and July 2016.<br/>The report reveals that Scotland’s annual emissions reduction target for 2014 was met with gross Scottish greenhouse gas emissions including international aviation and shipping falling by 8.6% in 2014. This compares to a 7.3% fall for the UK as a whole. Since 1990 gross Scottish emissions have fallen nearly 40% compared to nearly 33% at a UK level.

In this report Quantifying Greenhouse Gas Emissions the Committee on Climate Change assesses how the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions are quantified where uncertainties lie and the implications for setting carbon budgets and measuring progress against climate change targets. The report finds that:

• The methodology for constructing the UK’s greenhouse gas inventory is rigorous but the process for identifying improvements could be strengthened.
• There is high confidence over large parts of the inventory. A small number of sectors contribute most to uncertainty and research efforts should be directed at improving these estimates.
• UK greenhouse gas emissions for 2014 were within ±3% of the estimated level with 95% confidence which is a low level of uncertainty by international standards.
• Methodology revisions in recent years have tended to increase estimated emissions but these changes have been within uncertainty margins.
• Statistical uncertainty in the current greenhouse gas inventory is low but could rise in future.
• Uncertainty also arises from sources of emissions not currently included in the inventory and from potential changes to IPCC guidelines.
• Independent external validation of greenhouse gas emissions is important and new monitoring techniques should be encouraged.
• Government should continue to monitor consumption-based greenhouse gas estimates and support continued research to improve methodology and reduce uncertainty in these estimates.

This is the eighth annual Progress Report to the Scottish Parliament required by Scottish Ministers under the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009. It assesses Scotland’s progress in achieving its legislated targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.<br/>Overall greenhouse gas emissions reduced by 3% in 2017 compared to a 10% fall in 2016. The fall was again led by the power sector due in large part to Scotland’s first full year of coal-free electricity generation. Recent performance in other sectors shows only incremental improvement at best and unless emissions reductions are delivered economy-wide Scotland is at risk of missing its new interim target of a 56% reduction in emissions by 2020. Setting a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions target for 2045 represents a step-change in ambition for Scotland. The Scottish Parliament’s 2030 target to reduce emissions by 75% will be extremely challenging to meet. It must be backed up by steps to drive meaningful emissions reductions immediately.<br/>Scotland’s Programme for Government 2019-20 alongside other recent policies sent a clear signal that the Scottish Government is taking its more ambitious targets seriously but there is much more to do.Scotland’s ability to deliver its net-zero target is contingent on action taken in the UK and vice versa.

This is the Committee’s seventh report on Scotland’s progress towards meetings emissions targets as requested by Scottish Ministers under the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009.

Overall Scotland continues to outperform the rest of the UK in reducing its greenhouse gas emissions but successful strategies for energy and waste mask a lack of progress in other parts of the Scottish economy.

The report shows that Scotland’s total emissions fell by 10% in 2016 compared to 2015. The lion’s share of this latest drop in emissions came from electricity generation.

The key findings are:

• Overall Scotland met its annual emissions targets in 2016. 
• Scotland’s progress in reducing emissions from the power sector masks a lack of action in other areas particularly transport agriculture forestry and land use.
• Low-carbon heat transport agriculture and forestry sector policies need to improve in order to hit 2032 emissions targets.
• The Scottish Government’s Climate Change Plan – published in February 2018 – now has sensible expectations across each sector to reduce emissions.