Unlocking Solar and Hydrogen Potentials: A Comparative Analysis of Solar Tracking Systems for South Africa's Energy Transition

This study explores the potential of solar tracking technologies to enhance South Africa’s energy transition, focusing on their role in supporting green hydrogen production for domestic use and export. Using the Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD), it evaluates four solar tracking technologies — horizontal axis, tilted horizontal axis, vertical axis, and dual-axis — across six scenarios: tracking and non-tracking versions of a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, a 2 ◦C scenario, and a high hydrogen demand and export (HighH2) scenario. The results identify horizontal axis tracking as the most cost-effective option, followed by tilted horizontal axis tracking, which is particularly prominent in the HighH2 scenario. Tracking systems enhance hydrogen production by extending power output and increasing electrolyzer full-load hours. In the HighH2 scenario they reduce hydrogen production costs in 2050 from 1.47 e/kg to 1.34 e/kg and system cost by 0.66%, positioning South Africa competitively in the global hydrogen market. By integrating tracking technologies, South Africa can align hydrogen production ambitions with renewable energy growth while mitigating grid and financial challenges. The research underscores the need for targeted energy investments and policies to maximize renewable energy and hydrogen potential, ensuring a just energy transition that supports export opportunities, domestic energy security, and equitable socio-economic growth.