Hydrogen Demand Estimation for Sustainable Transport: A Comprehensive Review

Hydrogen demand estimation for various transport modes supports policy and decision-making for the transition towards a sustainable, low-carbon future transport system. It is one of the major factors that determine infrastructure construction, production, and distribution cost optimisation. Researchers have developed various methods for modelling hydrogen demand and its geographical distribution, each based on different sets of predictor variables. This paper systematically reviews these methods and examines the key variables used in hydrogen demand estimation, including the number of vehicles, travel distance, penetration rate, and fuel economy. It emphasises the role of spatial analysis in uncovering the geographical distribution of hydrogen demand, providing insights for strategic infrastructure planning. Furthermore, the discussion underscores the significance of minimising uncertainty by incorporating multiple scenarios into the model, thereby accommodating the dynamic nature of hydrogen adoption in transport. The necessity for multi-temporal estimation, which accounts for the changing nature of hydrogen demand over time, is also highlighted. In addition, this paper advocates for a holistic approach to hydrogen demand estimation, integrating spatiotemporal analysis. Future research could enhance the reliability of hydrogen demand models by addressing uncertainty through advanced modelling techniques to improve accuracy and spatial-temporal resolution.