Can Hydrogen-powered Air Travel Grow within the Planetary Limits?

Air travel demand is rising rapidly and the aviation sector is relying on technology to decouple environmental impacts from its growth. Using Sweden as a case study, we assessed the absolute environmental sustainability of medium-distance air travel in 2050, positioning the aviation sector's environmental impacts in relation to the planetary limits. We employed a novel framework that integrates prospective life cycle assessment and absolute environmental sustainability assessment methodologies. Our findings suggest that projected medium-distance air travel powered by e-kerosene or liquid hydrogen could have life cycle environmental impacts that overshoot global climate change and biodiversity loss thresholds by several orders of magnitude. Based on our case results for Sweden, for aviation to develop within the planetary limits, we recommend cross-sector collaboration to address environmental impacts from fossil-free energy supplies and the establishment of integrated targets that incorporate broader environmental issues. Given the unlikelihood of decoupling growth from environmental impacts, policymakers and the aviation sector should consider concurrently supporting technological development and implementing measures to manage air travel demand.