Evaluation of Factors for Adoption of Alternative-Fuel-Based Vehicles

The transportation industry significantly contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Federal and provincial governments have implemented strategies to decrease dependence on gasoline and diesel fuels. This encompasses promoting the adoption of electric cars (EVs) and biofuel alternatives, investing in renewable energy sources, and enhancing public transit systems. There is a growing focus on enhancing infrastructure to facilitate active transportation modes like cycling and walking, which provide the combined advantages of decreasing emissions and advancing public health. In this paper, we propose a System Dynamics simulation model for evaluating factors for the adoption of alternative-fuel vehicles such as EVs, biofuel vehicles, bus, bikes, and hydrogen vehicles. Five factors— namely, customer awareness, government initiatives, cost of vehicles, cost of fuels, and infrastructure developments—to increase the adoption of alternative-fuel vehicles are studied. Two scenarios are modeled: A baseline scenario that follows the existing trends in transportation (namely the use of gasoline vehicles), Scenario 1, which prioritizes greater adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and biofuel-powered vehicles, and Scenario 2, which prioritizes hydrogen fuel-based vehicles and improves biking culture. The simulation findings show that all scenarios achieve reductions in GHG emissions compared to the baseline, with Scenario 2 showing the lowest emissions. The proposed work is useful for transport decision makers and municipal administrators in devising policies for reducing overall GHG emissions, and this also aligns with Canada’s net zero goals.