Hydrogen Pathways for Green Fertilizer Production: A Comparative Techno-economic Study of Electrolysis and Plasmalysis

Decarbonizing ammonia production is critical to meeting global climate targets in agriculture. This study evaluates two hydrogen pathways, plasmalysis and electrolysis, at Ontario’s Courtright Complex using detailed techno-economic modeling. The natural gas–based plasma system achieves the lowest hydrogen cost ($1.35/kg) but incurs high annual fuel expenses ($297.7 M/y) and shows strong sensitivity to natural gas prices. Electrolysis, powered by 110 MW PV, 1700 MW wind, 60 MW biomass, 95 MWh battery storage, and a 2.0 GW electrolyzer, produces hydrogen at $2.07/kg with lower fuel costs ($29.7 M/y) and significant grid interaction (2.67 TWh/y imports and 1.89 TWh/y exports), enhancing operational flexibility. Over a 15-year horizon, both pathways deliver substantial CO2 reductions (plasmalysis: 27,000 kt; electrolysis: 26,045 kt). Extending plant lifetimes from 10 to 30 y reduces the levelized cost of hydrogen from $2.25 to $1.91/kg in the plasmalysis case and from $1.52 to $1.18/kg in the electrolysis case, while increasing overall net present cost. Although electrolysis requires higher capital investment ($5.53 B compared with $1.79 B), it demonstrates resilience to fuel price volatility and provides additional grid revenue. In contrast, plasmalysis offers near-term cost advantages but remains dependent on fossil gas, underscoring its role as a transitional rather than fully green option for ammonia decarbonization.