Policy & Socio-Economics
Optimal Supply Chains and Power Sector Benefits of Green Hydrogen
Jul 2021
Publication
Green hydrogen can help to decarbonize parts of the transportation sector but its power sector interactions are not well understood so far. It may contribute to integrating variable renewable energy sources if production is sufficiently flexible in time. Using an open-source co-optimization model of the power sector and four options for supplying hydrogen at German filling stations we find a trade-of between energy efficiency and temporal flexibility. For lower shares of renewables and hydrogen more energy-efficient and less flexible small-scale on-site electrolysis is optimal. For higher shares of renewables and/or hydrogen more flexible but less energy-efficient large-scale hydrogen supply chains gain importance as they allow to temporally disentangle hydrogen production from demand via storage. Liquid hydrogen emerges as particularly beneficial followed by liquid organic hydrogen carriers and gaseous hydrogen. Large-scale hydrogen supply chains can deliver substantial power sector benefits mainly through reduced renewable curtailment. Energy modelers and system planners should consider the distinct flexibility characteristics of hydrogen supply chains in more detail when assessing the role of green hydrogen in future energy transition scenarios. We also propose two alternative cost and emission metrics which could be useful in future analyses.
A Comparative Review of Alternative Fuels for the Maritime Sector: Economic, Technology, and Policy Challenges for Clean Energy Implementation
Oct 2021
Publication
Global maritime transportation is responsible for around 3% of total anthropogenic green‐ house gas emissions and significant proportions of SOx NOx and PM emissions. Considering the predicted growth in shipping volumes to 2050 greenhouse gas emissions from ships must be cut by 75–85% per ton‐mile to meet Paris Agreement goals. This study reviews the potential of a range of alternative fuels for decarbonisation in maritime. A systematic literature review and information synthesis method was applied to evaluate fuel characteristics production pathways utilization technologies energy efficiency lifecycle environmental performance economic viability and cur‐ rent applicable policies. Alternative fuels are essential to decarbonisation in international shipping. However findings suggest there is no single route to deliver the required greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Emissions reductions vary widely depending on the production pathways of the fuel. Alternative fuels utilising a carbon‐intensive production pathway will not provide decarbonisation instead shifting emissions elsewhere in the supply chain. Ultimately a system‐wide perspective to creating an effective policy framework is required in order to promote the adoption of alternative propulsion technologies.
Road Map to a US Hydrogen Energy: Reducing Emissions and Driving Growth Across the Nation
Oct 2020
Publication
This US Hydrogen Road Map was created through the collaboration of executives and technical industry experts in hydrogen across a broad range of applications and sectors who are committed to improving the understanding of hydrogen and how to increase its adoption across many sectors of the economy. For the first time this coalition of industry leaders has convened to develop a targeted holistic approach for expanding the use of hydrogen as an energy carrier. Due to great variation among national and state policies infrastructure needs and community interests each state and region of the US will likely have its own specific policies and road maps for implementing hydrogen infrastructure. The West Coast for example has traditionally had progressive policies on reducing transportation emissions so it is likely that hydrogen will scale sooner for vehicles in this region especially California. Experts also acknowledge the role that hydrogen in combination with renewables can play in supplying microgrid-type power to communities with the highest risk of shut-offs during seasonal weather-related issues such as high temperatures or wildfire-related power interruptions. Some states have emphasized the need to decarbonize the gas grid so blending hydrogen in natural gas networks and using hydrogen as feedstock may advance more quickly in these regions. Other states are interested in hydrogen as a means to address power grid issues enable the deployment of renewables and support competitive nuclear power. The launch of hydrogen technologies in some states or regions will help to scale hydrogen in various applications across the country laying the foundation for energy security grid resiliency economic growth and the reduction of both greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and air pollutants. This report outlines the benefits and impact of fuel cell technologies and hydrogen as a viable solution to the energy challenges facing the US through 2030 and beyond. As such it can serve as the latest comprehensive industry-driven national road map to accelerate and scale up hydrogen in the economy across North America
The Role of Green and Blue Hydrogen in the Energy Transition—A Technological and Geopolitical Perspective
Dec 2020
Publication
Hydrogen is currently enjoying a renewed and widespread momentum in many national and international climate strategies. This review paper is focused on analysing the challenges and opportunities that are related to green and blue hydrogen which are at the basis of different perspectives of a potential hydrogen society. While many governments and private companies are putting significant resources on the development of hydrogen technologies there still remains a high number of unsolved issues including technical challenges economic and geopolitical implications. The hydrogen supply chain includes a large number of steps resulting in additional energy losses and while much focus is put on hydrogen generation costs its transport and storage should not be neglected. A low-carbon hydrogen economy offers promising opportunities not only to fight climate change but also to enhance energy security and develop local industries in many countries. However to face the huge challenges of a transition towards a zero-carbon energy system all available technologies should be allowed to contribute based on measurable indicators which require a strong international consensus based on transparent standards and targets.
A Review of Energy Systems Models in the UK: Prevalent Usage and Categorisation
Feb 2016
Publication
In this paper a systematic review of academic literature and policy papers since 2008 is undertaken with an aim of identifying the prevalent energy systems models and tools in the UK. A list of all referenced models is presented and the literature is analysed with regards sectoral coverage and technological inclusion as well as mathematical structure of models. The paper compares available models using an appropriate classification schema the introduction of which is aimed at making the model landscape more accessible and perspicuous thereby enhancing the diversity of models within use. The distinct classification presented in this paper comprises three sections which specify the model purpose and structure technological detail and mathematical approach. The schema is not designed to be comprehensive but rather to be a broad classification with pertinent level of information required to differentiate between models. As an example the UK model landscape is considered and 22 models are classified in three tables as per the proposed schema.
The Future of Clean Hydrogen in the United States: Views from Industry, Market Innovators, and Investors
Sep 2021
Publication
This report The Future of Clean Hydrogen in the United States: Views from Industry Market Innovators and Investors sheds light on the rapidly evolving hydrogen market based on 72 exploratory interviews with organizations across the current and emerging hydrogen value chain. This report is part of a series From Kilograms to Gigatons: Pathways for Hydrogen Market Formation in the United States which will build on this study to evaluate policy opportunities for further hydrogen development in the United States. The goal of the interviews was to provide a snapshot of the clean hydrogen investment environment and better understand organizations’ market outlook investment rationale and areas of interest. This interview approach was supported by traditional research methods to contextualize and enrich the qualitative findings. This report should be understood as input to a more extensive EFI analysis of hydrogen market formation in the United States; the directions that companies are pursuing in hydrogen production transport and storage and end use at this early stage of value chain development will inform subsequent analysis in important ways.
Research and Development Investment and Collaboration Framework for the Hydrogen Economy in South Korea
Sep 2021
Publication
South Korea developed its hydrogen strategies to achieve carbon neutrality and dominate the hydrogen economy amidst and with the impetus of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The government strives toward the goal via continuous investment in green hydrogen technologies as well as strategic collaborations. To facilitate the transition into the hydrogen economy this study presents a research and development (R&D) investment and collaboration framework as a national strategy. The framework offers abundant information to elucidate the technology R&D spectrum and regional dimensions of the strategy. Furthermore the proposed framework was applied to the Korean hydrogen economy comprising 955 nationally funded projects worth USD 565.7 million. The statuses and trends of the government’s investment in nationally funded research projects are illustrated with regard to the value chains of the hydrogen economies of 16 regions as well as nine technology clusters relating to the hydrogen economy thereby determining the research organizations that played crucial roles in each cluster of the 16 regions between 2015 and 2020. The results indicate that the research organizations in Daejeon acquired the highest government R&D funding in many hydrogen-economy-related research fields and that an R&D spectrum-based research/strategic collaboration is required to accomplish specialized complexes in the regions.
Decarbonizing China’s Energy System – Modeling the Transformation of the Electricity, Transportation, Heat, and Industrial Sectors
Nov 2019
Publication
Growing prosperity among its population and an inherent increasing demand for energy complicate China’s target of combating climate change while maintaining its economic growth. This paper therefore describes three potential decarbonization pathways to analyze different effects for the electricity transport heating and industrial sectors until 2050. Using an enhanced version of the multi-sectoral open-source Global Energy System Model enables us to assess the impact of different CO2 budgets on the upcoming energy system transformation. A detailed provincial resolution allows for the implementation of regional characteristics and disparities within China. Conclusively we complement the model-based analysis with a quantitative assessment of current barriers for the needed transformation. Results indicate that overall energy system CO2 emissions and in particular coal usage have to be reduced drastically to meet (inter-) national climate targets. Specifically coal consumption has to decrease by around 60% in 2050 compared to 2015. The current Nationally Determined Contributions proposed by the Chinese government of peaking emissions in 2030 are therefore not sufficient to comply with a global CO2 budget in line with the Paris Agreement. Renewable energies in particular photovoltaics and onshore wind profit from decreasing costs and can provide a more sustainable and cheaper energy source. Furthermore increased stakeholder interactions and incentives are needed to mitigate the resistance of local actors against a low-carbon transformation.
Liquid Hydrogen as Prospective Energy Carrier: A Brief Review and Discussion of Underlying Assumptions Applied in Value Chain Analysis
Nov 2021
Publication
In the literature different energy carriers are proposed in future long-distance hydrogen value chains. Hydrogen can be stored and transported in different forms e.g. as compressed dense-phase hydrogen liquefied hydrogen and in chemically bound forms as different chemical hydrides. Recently different high-level value chain studies have made extrapolative investigations and compared such options with respect to energy efficiency and cost. Three recent journal papers overlap as the liquid hydrogen option has been considered in all three studies. The studies are not fully aligned in terms of underlying assumptions and battery limits. A comparison reveals partly vast differences in results for chain energy efficiency for long-distance liquid hydrogen transport which are attributable to distinct differences in the set of assumptions. Our comparison pinpoints the boiloff ratio i.e. evaporation losses due to heat ingress in liquid hydrogen storage tanks as the main cause of the differences and this assumption is further discussed. A review of spherical tank size and attributed boiloff ratios is presented for existing tanks of different vintage as well as for recently proposed designs. Furthermore the prospect for further extension of tanks size and reduction of boiloff ratio is discussed with a complementary discussion about the use of economic assumptions in extrapolative and predictive studies. Finally we discuss the impact of battery limits in hydrogen value chain studies and pinpoint knowledge needs and the need for a detailed bottom-up approach as a prerequisite for improving the understanding for pros and cons of the different hydrogen energy carriers.
A Novel Framework for Development and Optimisation of Future Electricity Scenarios with High Penetration of Renewables and Storage
May 2019
Publication
Although electricity supply is still dominated by fossil fuels it is expected that renewable sources will have a much larger contribution in the future due to the need to mitigate climate change. Therefore this paper presents a new framework for developing Future Electricity Scenarios (FuturES) with high penetration of renewables. A multi-period linear programming model has been created for power-system expansion planning. This has been coupled with an economic dispatch model PowerGAMA to evaluate the technical and economic feasibility of the developed scenarios while matching supply and demand. Application of FuturES is demonstrated through the case of Chile which has ambitious plans to supply electricity using only renewable sources. Four cost-optimal scenarios have been developed for the year 2050 using FuturES: two Business as usual (BAU) and two Renewable electricity (RE) scenarios. The BAU scenarios are unconstrained in terms of the technology type and can include all 11 options considered. The RE scenarios aim to have only renewables in the mix including storage. The results show that both BAU scenarios have a levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) lower than or equal to today’s costs ($72.7–77.3 vs $77.6/MWh) and include 81–90% of renewables. The RE scenarios are slightly more expensive than today’s costs ($81–87/MWh). The cumulative investment for the BAU scenarios is $123-$145 bn compared to $147-$157 bn for the RE. The annual investment across the scenarios is estimated at $4.0 ± 0.4 bn. Both RE scenarios show sufficient flexibility in matching supply and demand despite solar photovoltaics and wind power contributing around half of the total supply. Therefore the FuturES framework is a powerful tool for aiding the design of cost-efficient power systems with high penetration of renewables.
Gas Goes Green: Tomorrow's Heat, Today's Opportunity
Sep 2021
Publication
Cutting-edge world-leading energy network innovation is vital to ensuring that our economy can continue to access the energy it needs to safeguard jobs and to maintain our international competitiveness as the world goes through decarbonisation. In this report we build on the 2020 Gas Goes Green Zero Carbon Commitment to set out the scale of investment that Britain’s gas networks wish to deliver to hydrogen innovation projects and preparing the gas networks. This work will be focused over the next ten years creating highly-skilled high-tech green jobs through investment and ensuring that the impact of that innovation is felt in communities across the UK.
Net Zero Strategy: Build Back Greener
Oct 2021
Publication
Last year the Prime Minister set out his 10 point plan for a green industrial revolution laying the foundations for a green economic recovery from the impact of COVID-19 with the UK at the forefront of the growing global green economy.
This strategy builds on that approach to keep us on track for UK carbon budgets our 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution and net zero by 2050. It includes:
This strategy builds on that approach to keep us on track for UK carbon budgets our 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution and net zero by 2050. It includes:
- our decarbonisation pathways to net zero by 2050 including illustrative scenarios
- policies and proposals to reduce emissions for each sector
- cross-cutting action to support the transition.
Hydrogen Insights 2022
Sep 2022
Publication
Authored by the Hydrogen Council in collaboration with McKinsey and Company Hydrogen Insights 2022 presents an updated perspective on hydrogen market development and actions required to unlock hydrogen at scale.
The pipeline of hydrogen projects is continuing to grow but actual deployment is lagging.
680 large-scale project proposals worth USD 240 billion have been put forward but only about 10% (USD 22 billion) have reached final investment decision (FID). While Europe leads in proposed investments (~30%) China is slightly ahead on actual deployment of electrolyzers (200 MW) while Japan and South Korea are leading in fuel cells (more than half of the world’s 11 GW manufacturing capacity).
The urgency to invest in mature hydrogen projects today is greater than ever.
For the world to be on track for net zero emissions by 2050 investments of some USD 700 billion in hydrogen are needed through 2030 – only 3% of this capital is committed today. Ambition and proposals by themselves do not translate into positive impact on climate change; investments and implementation on the ground is needed.
Joint action by the public and private sectors is urgently required to move from project proposals to FIDs.
Both governments and industry need to act to implement immediate actions for 2022 to 2023 – policymakers need to enable demand visibility roll out funding support and ensure international coordination; industry needs to increase supply chain capability and capacity advance projects towards final investment decision (FID) and develop infrastructure for cross-border trade.
The paper can be found on their website.
The pipeline of hydrogen projects is continuing to grow but actual deployment is lagging.
680 large-scale project proposals worth USD 240 billion have been put forward but only about 10% (USD 22 billion) have reached final investment decision (FID). While Europe leads in proposed investments (~30%) China is slightly ahead on actual deployment of electrolyzers (200 MW) while Japan and South Korea are leading in fuel cells (more than half of the world’s 11 GW manufacturing capacity).
The urgency to invest in mature hydrogen projects today is greater than ever.
For the world to be on track for net zero emissions by 2050 investments of some USD 700 billion in hydrogen are needed through 2030 – only 3% of this capital is committed today. Ambition and proposals by themselves do not translate into positive impact on climate change; investments and implementation on the ground is needed.
Joint action by the public and private sectors is urgently required to move from project proposals to FIDs.
Both governments and industry need to act to implement immediate actions for 2022 to 2023 – policymakers need to enable demand visibility roll out funding support and ensure international coordination; industry needs to increase supply chain capability and capacity advance projects towards final investment decision (FID) and develop infrastructure for cross-border trade.
The paper can be found on their website.
The Significance of Formal & Legal Factors in Selecting a Location for a Hydrogen Buffer to Stabilize the Operation of Power Distribution Networks
Oct 2022
Publication
This article presents the conceptual assumptions for the process of identifying and evaluating the formal & legal factors that impact the choice of a hydrogen buffer location to stabilize the operation of power distribution networks. The assumption for the research process was establishing a methodological framework for an in-depth analysis of legislative acts (the EU legislation and the national law) to enable identification of synthetic groups of formal & legal factors to be further analyzed using the DEMATEL method. As a result the cause-and-effect relations between the variables were examined and an in-depth analysis was carried out to investigate the level of impact of the formal & legal factors on the functioning and location of a hydrogen energy buffer.
Roadmap Towards Zero Emissions, BEVs and FCEVs
Oct 2021
Publication
A “combined world” of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will create a greener transportation sector faster and cheaper than one of the solutions alone. Hydrogen Council with analytical support from McKinsey and Company published a report that highlights the complementary roles of FCEVs and BEVs in a decarbonised transportation sector.
The analysis found that each solution has comparable systemic efficiencies and similar CO2 life cycle intensity. From the vehicle user perspective FCEVs and BEVs will provide the flexibility and convenience to meet their specific context of use and geographic location. Additionally the costs of two supporting infrastructure for FCEVs and BEVs is cheaper than one infrastructure network primarily due to the reduced peak loads and avoidance of costly upgrades on the electricity grid. The report’s messages were developed in dialogue with the Observatory Group which consisted of representatives of government agencies and academia as well as associations and companies active in sectors like regenerative electricity generation electricity grid equipment manufacturing electric vehicle charging fleet management.
The paper can be found on their website.
The analysis found that each solution has comparable systemic efficiencies and similar CO2 life cycle intensity. From the vehicle user perspective FCEVs and BEVs will provide the flexibility and convenience to meet their specific context of use and geographic location. Additionally the costs of two supporting infrastructure for FCEVs and BEVs is cheaper than one infrastructure network primarily due to the reduced peak loads and avoidance of costly upgrades on the electricity grid. The report’s messages were developed in dialogue with the Observatory Group which consisted of representatives of government agencies and academia as well as associations and companies active in sectors like regenerative electricity generation electricity grid equipment manufacturing electric vehicle charging fleet management.
The paper can be found on their website.
The Cost Dynamics of Hydrogen Supply in Future Energy systems - A Techno-economic Study
Nov 2022
Publication
This work aims to investigate the time-resolved cost of electrolytic hydrogen in a future climate-neutral electricity system with high shares of variable renewable electricity generation in which hydrogen is used in the industry and transport sectors as well as for time-shifting electricity generation. The work applies a techno-economic optimization model which incorporates both exogenous (industry and transport) and endogenous (time-shifting of electricity generation) hydrogen demands to elucidate the parameters that affect the cost of hydrogen. The results highlight that several parameters influence the cost of hydrogen. The strongest influential parameter is the cost of electricity. Also important are cost-optimal dimensioning of the electrolyzer and hydrogen storage capacities as these capacities during certain periods limit hydrogen production thereby setting the marginal cost of hydrogen. Another decisive factor is the nature of the hydrogen demand whereby flexibility in the hydrogen demand can reduce the cost of supplying hydrogen given that the demand can be shifted in time. In addition the modeling shows that time-shifting electricity generation via hydrogen production with subsequent reconversion back to electricity plays an important in the climate-neutral electricity system investigated decreasing the average electricity cost by 2%–16%. Furthermore as expected the results show that the cost of hydrogen from an off-grid island-mode-operated industry is more expensive than the cost of hydrogen from all scenarios with a fully interconnected electricity system.
Renewable-based Zero-carbon Fuels for the Use of Power Generation: A Case Study in Malaysia Supported by Updated Developments Worldwide
Apr 2021
Publication
The existing combustion-centered energy mix in Malaysia has shown that replacing fossil fuels with zero-carbon alternative fuels could be a better approach to achieve the reduction of the carbon footprint of the power generation industry. In this study the potential of zero-carbon alternative fuels generated from renewable sources such as green hydrogen and green ammonia was addressed in terms of the production transport storage and utilization in Malaysia’s thermal power plants. The updated developments associated to green hydrogen and green ammonia across the globe have also been reviewed to support the existing potential in Malaysia. Though green hydrogen and green ammonia are hardly commercialized in Malaysia for the time being numerous potentialities have been identified in utilizing these fuels to achieve the zero-carbon power generation market in Malaysia. The vast and strategic location of natural gas network in Malaysia has the potential to deliver green hydrogen with minimal retrofitting required. Moreover there are active participation of Malaysia’s academic institutions in the development of water electrolysis that is the core process to convert the electricity from renewables plant into hydrogen. Malaysia also has the capacity to use its abundance of depleted gas reservoirs for the storage of green hydrogen. A large number of GT plants in Malaysia would definitely have the potential to utilize hydrogen co-firing with natural gas to minimize the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) released. The significant number of ammonia production plants in Malaysia could provide a surplus of ammonia to be used as an alternative fuel for power plants. With regard to the energy policy in Malaysia positive acceptance of the implementation of renewable energy has been shown with the introduction of various energy policies aimed at promoting the incorporation of renewables into the energy mix. However there is still inadequate support for the implementation of alternative zero-carbon fuels in Malaysia.
Sufficiency, Sustainability, and Circularity of Critical Materials for Clean Hydrogen
Jan 2022
Publication
Effective global decarbonization will require an array of solutions across a portfolio of low-carbon resources. One such solution is developing clean hydrogen. This unique fuel has the potential to minimize climate change impacts helping decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors such as heavy industry and global transport while also promoting energy security sustainable growth and job creation. The authors estimate suggest that hydrogen needs to grow seven-fold to support the global energy transition eventually accounting for ten percent of total energy consumption by 2050. A scaleup of this magnitude will increase demand for materials such as aluminum copper iridium nickel platinum vanadium and zinc to support hydrogen technologies - renewable electricity technologies and the electrolyzers for renewable hydrogen carbon storage for low-carbon hydrogen or fuel cells using hydrogen to power transport. This report a joint product of the World Bank and the Hydrogen Council examines these three critical areas. Using new data on the material intensities of key technologies the report estimates the amount of critical minerals needed to scale clean hydrogen. In addition it shows how incorporating sustainable practices and policies for mining and processing materials can help minimize environmental impacts. Key among these approaches is the use of recycled materials innovations in design in order to reduce material intensities and adoption of policies from the Climate Smart Mining (CSM) Framework to reduce impacts to greenhouse gas emissions and water footprint.
Hydrogen Technology Development and Policy Status by Value Chain in South Korea
Nov 2022
Publication
Global transitions from carbon- to hydrogen-based economies are an essential component of curbing greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. This study provides an investigative review of the technological development trends within the overall hydrogen value chain in terms of production storage transportation and application with the aim of identifying patterns in the announcement and execution of hydrogen-based policies both domestically within Korea as well as internationally. The current status of technological trends was analyzed across the three areas of natural hydrogen carbon dioxide capture utilization and storage technology linked to blue hydrogen and green hydrogen production linked to renewable energy (e.g. water electrolysis). In Korea the establishment of underground hydrogen storage facilities is potentially highly advantageous for the storage of domestically produced and imported hydrogen providing the foundations for large-scale application as economic feasibility is the most important national factor for the provision of fuel cells. To realize a hydrogen economy pacing policy and technological development is essential in addition to establishing a roadmap for efficient policy support. In terms of technological development it is important to prioritize that which can connect the value chain all of which will ultimately play a major role in the transformation of human energy consumption.
Conflicts Between Economic and Low-carbon Reorientation Processes: Insights from a Contextual Analysis of Evolving Company Strategies in the United Kingdrom Petrochemical Industry (1970-2021)
Jul 2022
Publication
To situate its low-carbon transition process in longer-term real-world business contexts this article makes a longitudinal analysis of the UK petrochemical industry focusing on changing economic and socio-political environments and company strategies in the last 50 years. Using the Triple Embeddedness Framework the paper identifies two parallel and conflicting reorientation processes in the UK petrochemical industry. The first one which started in the 1970s and is driven by long-standing competitiveness problems led to retrenchment in the 1980s exit of incumbent companies (BP Shell ICI) and the entry of new firms (INEOS SABIC) in the 1990s and 2000s and diversification into upstream fossil fuel production and ethane imports in the 2010s. The second reorientation process which started in the 2010s is driven by climate change considerations and has led petrochemical firms to reluctantly explore low-carbon alternatives. Despite advancing ambitious visions and plans companies are weakly committed to low-carbon reorientation because this is layered on top of and conflicts with the deeper economically-motivated reorientation process. The paper further concludes that the industry's low-carbon plans and visions are partial because they focus more on some innovations (hydrogen-as-fuel CCS) than on other innovations (recycling bio-feedstocks synthetic feedstocks). Despite exploring alternatives firms also use political resistance strategies to hamper and delay deeper low-carbon reorientation
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