Policy & Socio-Economics
Future Energy Scenarios 2020
Jul 2020
Publication
Our Future Energy Scenarios (FES) outline four different credible pathways for the future of energy over the next 30 years. Based on input from over 600 experts the report looks at the energy needed in Britain across electricity and gas - examining where it could come from how it needs to change and what this means for consumers society and the energy system itself.
Pathways to the Hydrogen Economy: A Multidimensional Analysis of the Technological Innovation Systems of Germany and South Korea
Aug 2023
Publication
The global trend towards decarbonization and the demand for energy security have put hydrogen energy into the spotlight of industry politics and societies. Numerous governments worldwide are adopting policies and strategies to facilitate the transition towards hydrogen-based economies. To assess the determinants of such transition this study presents a comparative analysis of the technological innovation systems (TISs) for hydrogen technologies in Germany and South Korea both recognized as global front-runners in advancing and implementing hydrogen-based solutions. By providing a multi-dimensional assessment of pathways to the hydrogen economy our analysis introduces two novel and crucial elements to the TIS analysis: (i) We integrate the concept of ‘quality infrastructure’ given the relevance of safety and quality assurance for technology adoption and social acceptance and (ii) we emphasize the social perspective within the hydrogen TIS. To this end we conducted 24 semi-structured expert interviews applying qualitative open coding to analyze the data. Our results indicate that the hydrogen TISs in both countries have undergone significant developments across various dimensions. However several barriers still hinder the further realization of a hydrogen economy. Based on our findings we propose policy implications that can facilitate informed policy decisions for a successful hydrogen transition.
The Role of Hydrogen for a Greenhouse Gas-neutral Germany by 2045
May 2023
Publication
This paper aims to provide a holistic analysis of the role of hydrogen for achieving greenhouse gas neutrality in Germany. For that purpose we apply an integrated energy system model which includes all demand sectors of the German energy system and optimizes the transformation pathway from today's energy system to a future cost-optimal energy system. We show that 412 TWh of hydrogen are needed in the year 2045 mostly in the industry and transport sector. Particularly the use of about 267 TWh of hydrogen in industry is essential as there are no cost-effective alternatives for the required emission reduction in the chemical industry or in steel production. Furthermore we illustrate that the German hydrogen supply in the year 2045 requires both an expansion of domestic electrolyzer capacity to 71 GWH2 and hydrogen imports from other European countries and Northern Africa of about 196 TWh. Moreover flexible operation of electrolyzers is cost-optimal and crucial for balancing the intermittent nature of volatile renewable energy sources. Additionally a conducted sensitivity analysis shows that full domestic hydrogen supply in Germany is possible but requires an electrolyzer capacity of 111 GWH2.
Risk Perception of an Emergent Technology: The Case of Hydrogen Energy
Jan 2006
Publication
Although hydrogen has been used in industry for many years as a chemical commodity its use as a fuel or energy carrier is relatively new and expert knowledge about its associated risks is neither complete nor consensual. Public awareness of hydrogen energy and attitudes towards a future hydrogen economy are yet to be systematically investigated. This paper opens by discussing alternative conceptualisations of risk then focuses on issues surrounding the use of emerging technologies based on hydrogen energy. It summarises expert assessments of risks associated with hydrogen. It goes on to review debates about public perceptions of risk and in doing so makes comparisons with public perceptions of other emergent technologies—Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Genetically Modified Organisms and Food (GM) and Nanotechnology (NT)—for which there is considerable scientific uncertainty and relatively little public awareness. The paper finally examines arguments about public engagement and "upstream" consultation in the development of new technologies. It is argued that scientific and technological uncertainties are perceived in varying ways and different stakeholders and different publics focus on different aspects or types of risk. Attempting to move public consultation further "upstream" may not avoid this because the framing of risks and benefits is necessarily embedded in a cultural and ideological context and is subject to change as experience of the emergent technology unfolds.
U.S. National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap
Jun 2023
Publication
The U.S. National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap explores opportunities for clean hydrogen to contribute to national decarbonization goals across multiple sectors of the economy. It provides a snapshot of hydrogen production transport storage and use in the United States today and presents a strategic framework for achieving large-scale production and use of clean hydrogen examining scenarios for 2030 2040 and 2050.
The Strategy and Roadmap also identifies needs for collaboration among federal government agencies industry academia national laboratories state local and Tribal communities environmental and justice communities labor unions and numerous stakeholder groups to accelerate progress and market liftoff. This roadmap establishes concrete targets market-driven metrics and tangible actions to measure success across sectors.
The Strategy and Roadmap responds to legislative language set forth in section 40314 of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (Public Law 117-58) also known as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL). This document was posted for in draft form for public comment in September 2022 and the final version of the report was informed by stakeholder feedback further analysis on market liftoff as well as engagement across several federal agencies and the White House Climate Policy Office. There will also be future opportunities for stakeholder feedback as the report will be updated at least every three years as required by the BIL.
The report can be found on their website.
The Strategy and Roadmap also identifies needs for collaboration among federal government agencies industry academia national laboratories state local and Tribal communities environmental and justice communities labor unions and numerous stakeholder groups to accelerate progress and market liftoff. This roadmap establishes concrete targets market-driven metrics and tangible actions to measure success across sectors.
The Strategy and Roadmap responds to legislative language set forth in section 40314 of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (Public Law 117-58) also known as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL). This document was posted for in draft form for public comment in September 2022 and the final version of the report was informed by stakeholder feedback further analysis on market liftoff as well as engagement across several federal agencies and the White House Climate Policy Office. There will also be future opportunities for stakeholder feedback as the report will be updated at least every three years as required by the BIL.
The report can be found on their website.
Green Hydrogen Credit Subsidized Renewable Energy-hydrogen Business Models for Achieving the Carbon Netural Future
Feb 2024
Publication
The global resurgence of hydrogen as a clean energy source particularly green hydrogen derived from renewable energy is pivotal for achieving a carbon-neutral future. However scalability poses a significant challenge. This research proposes innovative business models leveraging the low-emission property of green hydrogen to reduce its financial costs thereby fostering its widespread adoption. Key components of the business workflow are elaborated mathematical formulations of market parameters are derived and case studies are presented to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of these models. Results demonstrate that the substantial costs associated with the current hydrogen industry can be effectively subsidized via the implementation of proposed business models. When the carbon emission price falls within the range of approximately 86–105 USD/ton free access to hydrogen becomes a viable option for end-users. This highlights the significance and promising potential of the proposed business models within the green hydrogen credit framework.
Enabling or Requiring Hydrogen-ready Industrial Boiler Equipment: Call for Evidence, Summary of Responses
Dec 2022
Publication
On 20 December 2021 the Department for Business Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) launched a Call for Evidence (CfE) on enabling or requiring hydrogen-ready industrial boiler equipment. The aim was to gather evidence from a broad range of UK manufacturers industrial end-users supply chain participants and other experts to enable the development of proposals. The CfE was open for 12 weeks closing on 14 March 2022. The CfE followed the publication of the UK Hydrogen Strategy on 17 August 2021. In the Strategy government committed to run a CfE on hydrogen-ready industrial equipment by theend of 2022. The published CfE focussed on industrial boilers due to their widespread use and because BEIS analysis indicates a significant proportion of the demand for hydrogen in industry will come from this equipment category. Furthermore the technology required for hydrogen boilers is relatively advanced and more standardised than for other types of industrial<br/>equipment. For these reasons industrial boiler equipment presents a good test case for hydrogen-ready industrial equipment more broadly.<br/>The CfE contained the following three sections:<br/>• The opportunity for hydrogen-ready industrial boilers<br/>• The role for government to support hydrogen-ready industrial boiler equipment<br/>• The role of the supply chain and economic opportunities for the UK<br/>Respondents were asked to support their answers with evidence relating to their business product or sector published literature studies or to their broader expertise. To raise awareness of the CfE BEIS officials held two online webinars on 1 February 2022 and 3 February 2022. These were open to boiler manufacturers industrial end-users supply chain participants trade associations professional bodies and any other person(s) with an interest in the area.<br/>To build on evidence gathered through the CfE BEIS commissioned an independent study from Arup and Kiwa Gastec to further examine whether government should enable or require hydrogen-ready industrial boiler equipment. This study investigated the following topics:<br/>• definitions of hydrogen-readiness for industrial boilers<br/>• comparisons of the cost and resource requirement to install and convert hydrogen-ready industrial boiler equipment<br/>• industrial boiler supply chain capacity for conversion to hydrogen<br/>• estimates of the UK industrial boiler population<br/>The final report for this study has been published alongside the government response to the call for evidence. The conclusions and recommendations of that report do not necessarily represent the view of BEIS.
Clean Hydrogen Roadmap: Is Greater Realism Leading to more Credible Paths Forward?
Sep 2023
Publication
"The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies started researching the role of hydrogen in the energy transition in 2020. Since then the interest in hydrogen has continued to grow globally across the energy industry. A key research question has been the extent to which clean hydrogen can be scaled up at reasonable cost and whether it can play a significant role in the global energy system. In April 2022 OIES launched a new Hydrogen Research Programme under the overarching theme of ’building business cases for a hydrogen economy’. This overarching theme was selected based on the observation that most clean hydrogen developments to date had been relatively small-scale pilot or demonstration projects typically funded by government grants or subsidies. For clean hydrogen to play a significant role there will need to be business cases developed in order to attract the many hundreds of billions of dollars of investment required most of which will need to come from the private sector albeit ultimately underpinned by government-backed decarbonisation policies. Just over a year has passed since the start of the Hydrogen Research Programme and the intention of this paper is to pull together key themes which have emerged from the research so far and which can form a useful framework for further research both by OIES and others.<br/>The six key themes in this paper listed below are intended to create a framework to at least start to address the challenges:<br/>Hydrogen is in competition with other decarbonisation alternatives.<br/>The business case for clean hydrogen relies on government policy to drive decarbonisation.<br/>It is essential to understand emissions associated with potential hydrogen investments.<br/>Hydrogen investments need to consider the full value chain and its geopolitics.<br/>Transport of hydrogen is expensive and so should be minimised.<br/>Storage of hydrogen is an essential part of the value chain and requires more focus.
Industrial Boilers: Study to Develop Cost and Stock Assumptions for Options to Enable or Require Hydrogen-ready Industrial Boilers
Dec 2022
Publication
This study aims to help the Department for Business Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) determine whether the government should intervene to enable or require hydrogen-ready industrial boiler equipment. It will do this based on information from existing literature along with qualitative and quantitative information from stakeholder engagement. The study draws on evidence gathered through BEIS’ Call for Evidence (CfE) on hydrogen-ready industrial boilers. The assessment will advance the overall understanding of hydrogen-ready industrial boilers based on four outputs: definitions of hydrogen-readiness comparisons of the cost and resource requirement to install and convert hydrogen-ready industrial boiler equipment supply chain capacity for conversion to hydrogen and estimates of the UK industrial boiler population.
Modern Hydrogen Technologies in the Face of Climate Change—Analysis of Strategy and Development in Polish Conditions
Aug 2023
Publication
The energy production market based on hydrogen technologies is an innovative solution that will allow the industry to achieve climate neutrality in the future in Poland and in the world. The paper presents the idea of using hydrogen as a modern energy carrier and devices that in cooperation with renewable energy sources produce the so-called green hydrogen and the applicable legal acts that allow for the implementation of the new technology were analyzed. Energy transformation is inevitable and according to reports on good practices in European Union countries hydrogen and the hydrogen value chain (production transport and transmission storage use in transport and energy) have wide potential. Thanks to joint projects and subsidies from the EU initiatives supporting hydrogen technologies are created such as hydrogen clusters and hydrogen valleys and EU and national strategic programs set the main goals. Poland is one of the leaders in hydrogen production both in the world and in Europe. Domestic tycoons from the energy refining and chemical industries are involved in the projects. Eight hydrogen valleys that have recently been created in Poland successfully implement the assumptions of the “Polish Hydrogen Strategy until 2030 with a perspective until 2040” and “Energy Policy of Poland until 2040” which are in line with the assumptions of the most important legal acts of the EU including the European Union’s energy and climate policy the Green Deal and the Fit for 55 Package. The review of the analysis of the development of hydrogen technologies in Poland shows that Poland does not differ from other European countries. As part of the assumptions of the European Hydrogen Strategy and the trend related to the management of energy surpluses electrolyzers with a capacity of at least 6 GW will be installed in Poland in 2020–2024. It is also assumed that in the next phase planned for 2025–2030 hydrogen will be a carrier in the energy system in Poland. Poland as a member of the EU is the creator of documents that take into account the assumptions of the European Union Commission and systematically implement the assumed goals. The strategy of activities supporting the development of hydrogen technologies in Poland and the value chain includes very extensive activities related to among others obtaining hydrogen using hydrogen in transport energy and industry developing human resources for the new economy supporting the activities of hydrogen valley stakeholders building hydrogen refueling stations and cooperation among Poland Slovakia and the Czech Republic as part of the HydrogenEagle project.
Decarbonisation of Heat and the Role of ‘Green Gas’ in the United Kingdom
May 2018
Publication
This paper looks at the possible role of ‘green gas’ in the decarbonisation of heat in the United Kingdom. The option is under active discussion at the moment because of the UK’s rigorous carbon reduction targets and the growing realisation that there are problems with the ‘default’ option of electrifying heat. Green gas appears to be technically and economically feasible. However as the paper discusses there are major practical and policy obstacles which make it unlikely that the government will commit itself to developing ‘green gas’ in the foreseeable future.
What Does the Public Know About Technological Solutions for Achieving Carbon Neutrality? Citizens' Knowledge of Energy Transition and the Role of Media
Aug 2023
Publication
The present study explores the relation between media use and knowledge in the context of the energy transition. To identify relevant knowledge categories we relied on the expertise of an interdisciplinary research team. Based on this expertise we identified awareness-knowledge of changes in the energy system and principles-knowledge of hydrogen as important knowledge categories. With data obtained from a nationwide online survey of the German-speaking population (n = 2025) conducted in August 2021 we examined the level of knowledge concerning both categories in the German population. Furthermore we studied its associations with exposure to journalistic media and direct communication from non-media actors (e.g. scientists). Our results revealed a considerable lack of knowledge for both categories. Considering the media variables we found only weak and in some cases even negative relations with the use of journalistic media or other actors that spread information online. However we found comparably strong associations between both knowledge categories and the control variables of sex education and personal interest. We use these results to open up a general discussion of the role of the media in knowledge acquisition processes.
Coupling Green Hydrogen Production to Community Benefits: A Pathway to Social Acceptance?
Feb 2024
Publication
Hydrogen energy technologies are forecasted to play a critical supporting role in global decarbonisation efforts as reflected by the growth of national hydrogen energy strategies in recent years. Notably the UK government published its Hydrogen Strategy in August 2021 to support decarbonisation targets and energy security ambitions. While establishing techno-economic feasibility for hydrogen energy systems is a prerequisite of the prospective transition social acceptability is also needed to support visions for the ‘hydrogen economy’. However to date societal factors are yet to be embedded into policy prescriptions. Securing social acceptance is especially critical in the context of ‘hydrogen homes’ which entails replacing natural gas boilers and hobs with low-carbon hydrogen appliances. Reflecting the nascency of hydrogen heating and cooking technologies the dynamics of social acceptance are yet to be explored in a comprehensive way. Similarly public perceptions of the hydrogen economy and emerging national strategies remain poorly understood. Given the paucity of conceptual and empirical insights this study develops an integrated acceptance framework and tests its predictive power using partial least squares structural equation modelling. Results highlight the importance of risk perceptions trust dynamics and emotions in shaping consumer perceptions. Foremost prospects for deploying hydrogen homes at scale may rest with coupling renewable-based hydrogen production to local environmental and socio-economic benefits. Policy prescriptions should embed societal factors into the technological pursuit of large-scale sustainable energy solutions to support socially acceptable transition pathways.
Impact of Large-scale Hydrogen Electrification and Retrofitting of Natural Gas Infrastructure on the European Power System
Nov 2023
Publication
In this paper we aim to analyse the impact of hydrogen production decarbonisation and electrification scenarios on the infrastructure development generation mix CO2 emissions and system costs of the European power system considering the retrofit of the natural gas infrastructure. We define a reference scenario for the European power system in 2050 and use scenario variants to obtain additional insights by breaking down the effects of different assumptions. The scenarios were analysed using the European electricity market model COMPETES including a proposed formulation to consider retrofitting existing natural gas networks to transport hydrogen instead of methane. According to the results 60% of the EU’s hydrogen demand is electrified and approximately 30% of the total electricity demand will be to cover that hydrogen demand. The primary source of this electricity would be non-polluting technologies. Moreover hydrogen flexibility significantly increases variable renewable energy investment and production and reduces CO2 emissions. In contrast relying on only electricity transmission increases costs and CO2 emissions emphasising the importance of investing in an H2 network through retrofitting or new pipelines. In conclusion this paper shows that electrifying hydrogen is necessary and cost-effective to achieve the EU’s objective of reducing long-term emissions.
The New Model of Energy Cluster Management and Functioning
Sep 2022
Publication
This article was aimed to answer the question of whether local energy communities have a sufficient energy surplus for storage purposes including hydrogen production. The article presents an innovative approach to current research and a discussion of the concepts of the collective prosumer and virtual prosumer that have been implemented in the legal order and further amended in the law. From this perspective it was of utmost importance to analyze the model of functioning of an energy cluster consisting of energy consumers energy producers and hydrogen storage whose goal is to maximize the obtained benefits assuming the co-operative nature of the relationship. The announced and clear perspective of the planned benefits will provide the cluster members a measurable basis for participation in such an energy community. However the catalogue of benefits will be conditioned by the fulfillment of several requirements related to both the scale of covering energy demand from own sources and the need to store surplus energy. As part of the article the results of analyses together with a functional model based on real data of the local energy community are presented.
Designing a Future-proof Gas and Hydrogen Infrastructure for Europe - A Modelling-based Approach
Jun 2023
Publication
Hydrogen has been at the centre of attention since the EU kicked-off its decarbonization agenda at full speed. Many consider it a silver bullet for the deep decarbonization of technically challenging sectors and industries but it is also an attractive option for the gas industry to retain and future-proof its well-developed infrastructure networks. The modelling methodology presented in this report systematically tests the feasibility and cost of different pipeline transportation methods – blending repurposing and dedicated hydrogen pipelines - under different decarbonization pathways and concludes that blending is not a viable solution and pipeline repurposing can lead to excessive investment outlays in the range of EUR 19–25 bn over the modelled period (2020–2050) for the EU-27.
Technoeconomic Analysis for Green Hydrogen in Terms of Production, Compression, Transportation and Storage Considering the Australian Perspective
Jul 2023
Publication
This current article discusses the technoeconomics (TE) of hydrogen generation transportation compression and storage in the Australian context. The TE analysis is important and a prerequisite for investment decisions. This study selected the Australian context due to its huge potential in green hydrogen but the modelling is applicable to other parts of the world adjusting the price of electricity and other utilities. The hydrogen generation using the most mature alkaline electrolysis (AEL) technique was selected in the current study. The results show that increasing temperature from 50 to 90 ◦C and decreasing pressure from 13 to 5 bar help improve electrolyser performance though pressure has a minor effect. The selected range for performance parameters was based on the fundamental behaviour of water electrolysers supported with literature. The levelised cost of hydrogen (LCH2 ) was calculated for generation compression transportation and storage. However the majority of the LCH2 was for generation which was calculated based on CAPEX OPEX capital recovery factor hydrogen production rate and capacity factor. The LCH2 in 2023 was calculated to be 9.6 USD/kgH2 using a base-case solar electricity price of 65–38 USD/MWh. This LCH2 is expected to decrease to 6.5 and 3.4 USD/kgH2 by 2030 and 2040 respectively. The current LCH2 using wind energy was calculated to be 1.9 USD/kgH2 lower than that of solar-based electricity. The LCH2 using standalone wind electricity was calculated to be USD 5.3 and USD 2.9 in 2030 and 2040 respectively. The LCH2 predicted using a solar and wind mix (SWM) was estimated to be USD 3.2 compared to USD 9.6 and USD 7.7 using standalone solar and wind. The LCH2 under the best case was predicted to be USD 3.9 and USD 2.1 compared to USD 6.5 and USD 3.4 under base-case solar PV in 2030 and 2040 respectively. The best case SWM offers 33% lower LCH2 in 2023 which leads to 37% 39% and 42% lower LCH2 in 2030 2040 and 2050 respectively. The current results are overpredicted especially compared with CSIRO Australia due to the higher assumption of the renewable electricity price. Currently over two-thirds of the cost for the LCH2 is due to the price of electricity (i.e. wind and solar). Modelling suggests an overall reduction in the capital cost of AEL plants by about 50% in the 2030s. Due to the lower capacity factor (effective energy generation over maximum output) of renewable energy especially for solar plants a combined wind- and solar-based electrolysis plant was recommended which can increase the capacity factor by at least 33%. Results also suggest that besides generation at least an additional 1.5 USD/kgH2 for compression transportation and storage is required.
Are Green and Blue Hydrogen Competitive or Complementary? Insights from a Decarbonised European Power System Analysis
Jun 2023
Publication
Hydrogen will be important in decarbonized energy systems. The primary ways to produce low emission hydrogen are from renewable electricity using electrolyzers called green hydrogen and by reforming natural gas and capturing and storing the CO2 known as blue hydrogen. In this study the degrees to which blue and green hydrogen are complementary or competitive are analyzed through a sensitivity analysis on the electrolyzer costs and natural gas price. This analysis is performed on four bases: what is the cost-effective relative share between blue and green hydrogen deployment how their deployment influences the price of hydrogen how the price of CO2 changes with the deployment of these two technologies and whether infrastructure can economically be shared between these two technologies. The results show that the choice of green and blue hydrogen has a tremendous impact where an early deployment of green leads to higher hydrogen costs and CO2 prices in 2030. Allowing for blue hydrogen thus has notable benefits in 2030 giving cheaper hydrogen with smaller wider socioeconomic impacts. In the long term these competitive aspects disappear and green and blue hydrogen can coexist in the European market without negatively influencing one another.
Cost Projection of Global Green Hydrogen Production Scenarios
Nov 2023
Publication
A sustainable future hydrogen economy hinges on the development of green hydrogen and the shift away from grey hydrogen but this is highly reliant on reducing production costs which are currently too high for green hydrogen to be competitive. This study predicts the cost trajectory of alkaline and proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers based on ongoing research and development (R&D) scale effects and experiential learning consequently influencing the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) projections. Electrolyzer capital costs are estimated to drop to 88 USD/kW for alkaline and 60 USD/kW for PEM under an optimistic scenario by 2050 or 388 USD/kW and 286 USD/kW respectively under a pessimistic scenario with PEM potentially dominating the market. Through a combination of declining electrolyzer costs and a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) the global LCOH of green hydrogen is projected to fall below 5 USD/kgH2 for solar onshore and offshore wind energy sources under both scenarios by 2030. To facilitate a quicker transition the implementation of financial strategies such as additional revenue streams a hydrogen/carbon credit system and an oxygen one (a minimum retail price of 2 USD/kgO2 ) and regulations such as a carbon tax (minimum 100 USD/tonCO2 for 40 USD/MWh electricity) and a contract-for-difference scheme could be pivotal. These initiatives would act as financial catalysts accelerating the transition to a greener hydrogen economy.
Regional Capabilities and Hydrogen Adoption Barriers
Dec 2023
Publication
Hydrogen is gaining importance to decarbonize the energy system and tackle the climate crisis. This exploratory study analyzes three focus groups with representatives from relevant organizations in a Northern German region that has unique beneficial characteristics for the transition to a hydrogen economy. Based upon this data (1) a category system of innovation adoption barriers for hydrogen technologies is developed (2) decision levels associated with the barriers are identified (3) detailed insights on how decision levels contribute to the adoption barriers are provided and (4) the barriers are evaluated in terms of their importance. Our analysis adds to existing literature by focusing on short-term barriers and exploring relevant decision levels and their associated adoption barriers. Our main results comprise the following: flaws in the funding system complex approval procedures lack of networks and high costs contribute to hydrogen adoption barriers. The (Sub-)State level is relevant for the uptake of the hydrogen economy. Regional entities have leeway to foster the hydrogen transition especially with respect to the distribution infrastructure. Funding policy technological suitability investment and operating costs and the availability of distribution infrastructure and technical components are highly important adoption barriers that alone can impede the transition to a hydrogen economy.
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