Policy & Socio-Economics

In this work a new modeling tool called DECAL (DEcarbonize CALifornia) is developed and used to evaluate what it will take to reach California’s climate mandate of net-zero emissions by 2045. DECAL is a scenario-based model that projects emissions society-wide costs and resource consumption in response to user-defined inputs. DECAL has sufficient detail to model true net-zero pathways and reveal fine-grain technology insights. Using DECAL we find the State can achieve 52 % of the emissions abatement needed to meet net-zero by 2045 using technologies that are already commercially available such as electric vehicles heat pumps and renewable electricity & storage. While these technologies are mature the speed and scale of deployment required will still pose significant practical challenges if not technical ones. In addition we find that 25 % of emissions abatement will come from technologies currently at early-stage deployment and 23 % from technologies at research scale motivating the continued research & development of these technologies including zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles carbon capture & sequestration clean industrial heating low global warming potential refrigerants and direct air capture. Significant carbon dioxide removal will also be needed for California to meet its net-zero target on time at least 45 Mt/yr and more likely up to 75 Mt/yr by 2045. Accelerating deployment of mature technologies can further reduce the need for carbon removal nevertheless establishing enforceable carbon removal targets and conducting policy planning to make said goals a reality will be needed if California is to meet its net-zero by 2045 goal.

Driven by the current round of technological revolution and industrial transformation and based on a consensus among countries around the world the world’s energy landscape is undergoing profound adjustments to promote a transition to clean low-carbon energy in order to cope with global climate change. As a clean and carbon-free secondary energy source hydrogen energy is an important component of the energy strategy in various countries. Fuel cell technology is also of great importance in directing the current global energy technology revolution. China has clarified its sustainable energy goals: to peak its carbon dioxide emissions [1] and achieve carbon neutrality [2]. With thorough development of technology and the industry hydrogen energy will play a significant role in achieving these goals.

The Middle East and North Africa region has not played a major role in climate action so far and several countries depend economically on fossil fuel exports. However this is a region with vast solar energy resources which can be exploited affordably for power generation and hydrogen production at scale to eventually reach carbon neutrality. In this paper we elaborate on the case of the United Arab Emirates and explore the aspirations and feasibility of its net-zero by 2050 target. While we affirm the concept per se we also highlight the technological complexity and economic dimensions that accompany such transformation. We expect the UAE’s electricity demand to triple between today and 2050 and the annual green hydrogen production is expected to reach 3.5 Mt accounting for over 40% of the electricity consumption. Green hydrogen will provide power-to-fuel solutions for aviation maritime transport and hard-to-abate industries. At the same time electrification will intensify—most importantly in road transport and low-temperature heat demands. The UAE can meet its future electricity demands primarily with solar power followed by natural gas power plants with carbon capture utilization and storage while the role of nuclear power in the long term is unclear at this stage.

Hydrogen as an energy carrier is a promising alternative to fossil fuels and it becomes more and more popular in developed countries as a carbon-free fuel. The low boiling temperature of hydrogen (20 K or −253.15 ◦C) provides a unique opportunity to implement superconductors with a critical temperature above 20 K such as MgB2 or high-temperature superconductors. Superconductors increase efficiency and reduce the loss of energy which could compensate for the high price of LH2 to some extent. Norway is one of the pioneer countries with adequate infrastructure for using liquid hydrogen in the industry especially in marine technology where a superconducting propulsion system can make a remarkable impact on its economy. Using superconductors in the motor of a propulsion system can increase its efficiency from 95% to 98% when the motor operates at full power. The difference in efficiency is even greater when the motor does not work at full power. Here we survey the applications of liquid hydrogen and superconductors and propose a realistic roadmap for their synergy specifically for the Norwegian economy in the marine industry.

Demand for low-carbon sources of hydrogen and power is expected to rise dramatically in the coming years. Individually steam methane reformers (SMRs) and combined cycle gas power plants (CCGTs) when combined with carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) can produce large quantities of ondemand decarbonised hydrogen and power respectively. The ongoing trend towards the development of CCUS clusters means that both processes may operate in close proximity taking advantage of a common infrastructure for natural gas supply electricity grid connection and the CO2 transport and storage network. This work improves on a previously described novel integration process which utilizes flue gas sequential combustion to incorporate the SMR process into the CCGT cycle in a single “combined fuel and power” (CFP) plant by increasing the level of thermodynamic integration through the merger of the steam cycles and a redesign of the heat recovery system. This increases the 2nd law thermal efficiency by 2.6% points over un-integrated processes and 1.9% points the previous integration design. Using a conventional 35% wt. monoethanolamine (MEA) CO2 capture process designed to achieve two distinct and previously unexplored CO2 capture fractions; 95% gross and 100% fossil (CO2 generated is equal to the quantity of CO2 captured). The CFP configuration reduces the overall quantity of flue gas to be processed by 36%–37% and increases the average CO2 concentration of the flue gas to be treated from 9.9% to 14.4% (wet). This decreases the absorber packing volume requirements by 41%–56% and decreases the specific reboiler duty by 5.5% from 3.46–3.67 GJ/tCO2 to 3.27–3.46 GJ/tCO2 further increasing the 2nd law thermal efficiency gains to 3.8%–4.4% points over the un-integrated case. A first of a kind techno economic analysis concludes that the improvements present in a CO2 abated CFP plant results in a 15.1%–17.3% and 7.6%–8.0% decrease in capital and operational expenditure respectively for the CO2 capture cases. This translates to an increase in the internal rate of return over the base hurdle rate of 7.5%–7.8% highlighting the potential for substantial cost reductions presented by the CFP configuration.

Green hydrogen is a promising solution within carbon free energy systems with Sub-Saharan Africa being a possibly well-suited candidate for its production. However green hydrogen production in Sub-Saharan Africa is not yet investigated in detail. This work determines the cost-potential for green hydrogen production within this region. Therefore a potential analysis for PV wind and hydropower groundwater analysis and energy systems optimization are conducted. The results are evaluated under local socio-economic factors. Results show that hydrogen costs start at 1.6 EUR/kg in Mauritania with a total potential of ~259 TWh/a under 2 EUR/kg in 2050. Two third of the region experience groundwater limitations and need desalination at an added costs of ~1% of hydrogen costs. Socio-economic analysis show that green hydrogen deployment can be hindered along the Upper Guinea Coast and the African Great Lakes driven by limited energy access low labor costs in West Africa and high labor potential in other regions.

In a fully decarbonized global energy system hydrogen is likely to be one of few energy vectors that can facilitate long-distance export of renewable energy. However because of divergent literature findings consensus is yet to be reached on the total supply chain costs of shipping hydrogen either as a cryogenic liquid or ammonia. To this end this article presents a detailed process systems-based economic analysis of a typical hydrogen value chain in 2050 employing the method of elementary effects to quantify the effect of uncertainties. With expected landed costs for liquid hydrogen of $4.60 kg1 (H2) and ammonia of $3.30 kg1 (H2) the importance of uncertainty quantification is demonstrated given that specific parametric combinations can yield landed costs below $2.50 kg1 (H2). Given our delivered hydrogen cost of $4.70 kg1 (H2) these results demonstrate the stark difference between the aspirations of decarbonization policy (with some countries aiming for prices below $1 kg1 by 2050) and the present techno-economic reality.

Brazil has emerged as one of the global leaders in adopting renewable energy standing out in the implementation of onshore wind energy and more recently in the development of future offshore wind energy projects. Onshore wind energy has experienced exponential growth in the last decade positioning Brazil as one of the countries with the largest installed capacity in the world by 2023 with 30 GW. Wind farms are mainly concentrated in the northeast region where winds are constant and powerful enabling efficient and cost-competitive generation. Although in its early stages offshore wind energy presents significant potential of 1228 GW due to Brazil’s extensive coastline which exceeds 7000 km. Offshore wind projects promise greater generating capacity and stability as offshore winds are more constant than onshore winds. However their development faces challenges such as high initial costs environmental impacts on marine ecosystems and the need for specialized infrastructure. From a sustainability perspective this article discusses that both types of wind energy are key to Brazil’s energy transition. They reduce dependence on fossil fuels generate green jobs and foster technological innovation. However it is crucial to implement policies that foster synergy with green hydrogen production and minimize socio-environmental impacts such as impacts on local communities and biodiversity. Finally the article concludes that by 2050 Brazil is expected to consolidate its leadership in renewable energy by integrating advanced technologies such as larger more efficient turbines energy storage systems and green hydrogen production. The combination of onshore and offshore wind energy and other renewable sources could position the country as a global model for a clean sustainable and resilient energy mix.

This report by the Clean Energy Technology Observatory (CETO) provides an updated strategic analysis of the EU clean energy technology sector. The EU's renewable share in gross final energy consumption rose to 24.5% in 2023 and to 44.7% of gross electricity consumption. The electrification rate however has remained almost unchanged at 26% over the decade to 2023 indicating slow progress on decarbonisation of transport and heating sectors. The EU renewable energy industry saw growth in turnover and gross value added in 2023 outperforming the overall economy. However the production value of clean energy technologies declined in some areas such as bioenergy PV and hydrogen electrolyser production. EU public investment in energy research and innovation has increased but it remains lower as a share of GDP compared to other major economies. Employment in the renewable energy sector reached 1.7 million in 2022 growing at a faster rate than the economy as a whole. The clean energy sector however faces challenges in manufacturing. A new sustainability assessment framework has been applied for clean energy technologies highlighting the need for a harmonized basis for comparing results. The report also underscores the general need to improve data quality and timeliness to better inform policy makers and investors.

The aim of this project is to identify the investment requirements for energy infrastructure across each TEN-E infrastructure category as well as for non-TEN-E electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure in order to enable a decarbonised economy in the EU. It also evaluates the need for EU financial support and explores possible forms of EU funding to address the identified needs within the scope of this study's assessment.