The UAE Net-Zero Strategy—Aspirations, Achievements and Lessons for the MENA Region

The Middle East and North Africa region has not played a major role in climate action so far, and several countries depend economically on fossil fuel exports. However, this is a region with vast solar energy resources, which can be exploited affordably for power generation and hydrogen production at scale to eventually reach carbon neutrality. In this paper, we elaborate on the case of the United Arab Emirates and explore the aspirations and feasibility of its net-zero by 2050 target. While we affirm the concept per se, we also highlight the technological complexity and economic dimensions that accompany such transformation. We expect the UAE’s electricity demand to triple between today and 2050, and the annual green hydrogen production is expected to reach 3.5 Mt, accounting for over 40% of the electricity consumption. Green hydrogen will provide power-to-fuel solutions for aviation, maritime transport and hard-to-abate industries. At the same time, electrification will intensify—most importantly in road transport and low-temperature heat demands. The UAE can meet its future electricity demands primarily with solar power, followed by natural gas power plants with carbon capture, utilization and storage, while the role of nuclear power in the long term is unclear at this stage.