Policy & Socio-Economics

The goal of achieving a zero-emission energy system by 2050 requires accurate energy planning to minimise the overall cost of the energy transition. Long-term energy models based on cost-optimal solutions are extremely dependent on the cost forecasts of different technologies. However such forecasts are inherently uncertain. The aim of the present work is to identify a cost-optimal pathway for the Italian energy system decarbonisation and assess how renewable cost scenarios can affect the optimal solution. The analysis has been carried out with the H2RES model a single-objective optimisation algorithm based on Linear Programming. Different cost scenarios for photovoltaics on-shore and off-shore wind power and lithium-ion batteries are simulated. Results indicate that a 100% renewable energy system in Italy is technically feasible. Power-to-X technologies are crucial for balancing purposes enabling a share of non-dispatchable generation higher than 90%. Renewable cost scenarios affect the energy mix however both on-shore and off-shore wind saturate the maximum capacity potential in almost all scenarios. Cost forecasts for lithium-ion batteries have a significant impact on their optimal capacity and the role of hydrogen. Indeed as battery costs rise fuel cells emerge as the main solution for balancing services. This study emphasises the importance of conducting cost sensitivity analyses in long-term energy planning. Such analyses can help to determine how changes in cost forecasts may affect the optimal strategies for decarbonising national energy systems.

The EAH team discuss Nataliya’s plan for a green Ukraine including working with the current government on the Hydrogen Road Map. We also get another example of incredible Ukrainian resilience and discuss its importance for the current and future energy system.

The podcast can be found on their website.

Green hydrogen a zero-carbon emission fuel has become a real competitor to transform the energy market thanks to improvements in the electrolysis process decreased costs and the presence of renewable energy resources. Energy industries have shown considerable progress in hydrogen production due to the incorporation of artificial intelligence (AI) knowledge through algorithms AI-based models and data programs. These techniques can greatly enhance the production storage and transportation of hydrogen fuel. The main goal of this article is to demonstrate the recent technological advancements and the influence of various AI techniques algorithms and models on the hydrogen energy sector along with this further examination of the energy policies of countries like China Japan India and South Korea. The key challenges related to these energy policies are addressed through standardized datasets AI models and optimized environmental conditions. This paper serves as a valuable resource for researchers engineers and practitioners interested in applying cutting-edge technologies to enhance hydrogen safety systems. AI-based models contribute to the overall shift towards a sustainable energy future by enhancing efficiency reducing costs and facilitating hydrogen energy commerce for Asian countries. This study accelerates the global investigation and tremendous applications of sophisticated machine-learning methodologies for producing renewable green hydrogen.

For the second episode in this new season the team interviews Oghosa Erhahon to discuss hydrogen opportunities in Africa including the African Climate Summit in September and what to look forward to at COP28.

The podcast can be found on their website.

Insular regions face unique energy management challenges due to physical isolation. Graciosa (Azores) has high renewable energy sources (RES) potential theoretically enabling a 100% green system. However RES intermittency combined with the lack of energy storage solutions reduces renewable penetration and raises curtailment. This article studies the technical and economic feasibility of producing green hydrogen from curtailment energy in Graciosa through two distinct case studies. Case Study 1 targets maximum renewable penetration with green hydrogen serving as chemical storage converted back to electricity via fuel cells during RES shortages. Case Study 2 focuses on maximum profitability where produced gases are sold to monetize curtailment without additional electricity production. Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) values of €3.06/kgH2 and €2.68/kgH2 respectively and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) values of 3.7% and 17.1% were obtained for Case Studies 1 and 2 with payback periods of 15.2 and 6.1 years. Hence only Case Study 2 is economically viable but it does not allow increasing the renewable share in the energy mix. Sensitivity analysis for Case Study 1 shows that overall efficiency and CAPEX are the main factors affecting viability highlighting the need for technological advances and economies of scale as well as the importance of public funding to promote projects like this.

To meet decarbonization targets demand for low-emission hydrogen is increasing. A considerable share of supply will come from latecomer countries. We study how latecomer countries and firms participate in the emerging global low-emission hydrogen economy and how industrial policies can help maximize societal benefits. This requires a specific conceptualization of industrial policy: First the latecomer condition calls for specific policy mixes as latecomers typically cannot build on established innovation systems and network externalities and rather need to combine FDI attraction with measures strengthening absorptive capacity and ensuring knowledge transfer from FDI to domestic firms; second low-emission hydrogen is a policy-induced alternative that requires creating entirely new firm ecosystems while competing with lower-cost emission-intensive incumbent technologies. Hence industrial policies need to account for enhanced coordination failure and internalization of environmental costs. We analyze the published national hydrogen strategies of 20 latecomer economies and derive a novel typology differentiating four hydrogen-specific industrial development pathways. For each pathway we assess entry barriers and risks identify the policies suggested in the country strategies and discuss how likely those are to be successful. The novel pathway typology and comparison of associated policy mixes may help policymakers maximize the gains of hydrogen investments.

This report aims to summarise the status of the European hydrogen market landscape. It is based on the information available at the European Hydrogen Observatory (EHO) initiative the leading source of data on hydrogen in Europe exploring the basic concepts latest trends and role of hydrogen in the energy transition. The data presented in this report is based on research conducted until the end of September 2024. This report contains information on current hydrogen production and trade distribution and storage end-use cost and technology manufacturing as of the end of 2023 except if stated otherwise in Europe. A substantial portion of the data gathering was carried out within the framework of Hydrogen Europe's efforts for the European Hydrogen Observatory. Downloadable spreadsheets of the data can be accessed on the website: https://observatory.clean-hydrogen.europa.eu/. The production and trade section provides insights into hydrogen production capacity and production output by technology in Europe and into international hydrogen trade (export and import) to and between European countries. The section referring to distribution and storage presents the location and main attributes of operational dedicated hydrogen pipelines and storage facilities as well as publicly accessible and operational hydrogen refuelling stations in Europe. The end-use section provides information on annual hydrogen consumption per end-use in Europe the deployment of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles in Europe the current and future hydrogen Valleys in Europe and the leading scenarios for future hydrogen demand in Europe in 2030 2040 and 2050 by sector. The cost chapter offers a comprehensive examination of the levelised cost of hydrogen production by technology and country. This chapter also gives estimations of renewable hydrogen break-even prices for different end-use applications in addition to electrolyser cost components by technology. Finally a chapter on technologies manufacturing explores data on the European electrolyser manufacturing capacity and sales and the fuel cell market.

To address the global climate crisis maritime logistics are undergoing a transition away from fossil-based energy sources. The transition is envisaged to be both green (involving renewables) and digital (involving various kinds of digitalization). Much of the hope rests on the new hydrogen economy involving the build-up of infrastructure for hydrogen-derived alternative fuels such as methanol and ammonia. Indeed the new hydrogen economy is often portrayed as set to revolutionize maritime transport. The hope behind the hype reflects a belief in the performativity of hypes: some technological phenomenon will eventually materialise in innovation and business practices. In this paper we critically analyse the current hydrogen hype in the field of Finnish maritime logistics as a paradigmatic case of performative techno-optimism. Based on causal network analysis and thematic analysis of expert interviews and workshop data we argue that the phenomenon of performative techno-optimism is more nuanced than hitherto presented in the related literature. We showcase a variety of stances along a spectrum ranging from radical optimism to radical pessimism. Furthermore our causal network analysis indicates that the current green and digital transition of maritime transport is caught in a systemic catch-22: transitioning to alternative fuels in maritime logistics faces a lock-in of between overly cautious demand for alternative fuels leading to overly cautious investment in supply which only secures the modest demand. Finally our thematic analysis of techno-optimist stances suggests the following two major ways out of the systemic dilemma: large-scale technological innovations and global regulatory solutions.

Hydrogen Valley represents localised ecosystems that enable the integrated production storage distribution and utilisation of hydrogen to support the decarbonisation of the energy system. However planning such integrated systems necessitates a detailed evaluation of their interconnections with variable renewable generation sector coupling and system flexibility. The novelty of this work lies in addressing a critical gap in system-level modelling for Hydrogen Valleys by introducing an optimization-based framework to determine their optimal configuration. This study focuses on the scenario-based multiobjective design of local hydrogen energy systems considering renewable integration infrastructure deployment and sector coupling. We developed and simulated three scenarios based on varying hydrogen pathways and penetration levels using the EnergyPLAN model implemented through a custom MATLAB Toolbox. Several decision variables such as renewable energy capacity electrolyser size and hydrogen storage were optimised to minimise CO₂ emissions total annual system cost and critical excess electricity production simultaneously. The findings show that Hydrogen Valley deployment can reduce CO₂ emissions by up to 30 % triple renewable penetration in the primary energy supply and lower the levelized cost of hydrogen from 7.6 €/kg to 5.6 €/kg despite a moderate increase in the total cost of the system. The approach highlights the potential of sector coupling and Power-to-X technologies in enhancing system flexibility and supporting green hydrogen integration. The outcome of our research offers valuable insights for policymakers and planners seeking to align local hydrogen strategies with broader decarbonisation targets and regulatory frameworks.

Many countries of the Global South struggle to achieve inclusive growth paths despite investment in the exploitation of rich resources. Resource-based industrialization literature stresses the potential for achieving broader development effects via the development of production linkages with local enterprises. The focus lies on market-driven outsourcing dynamics that foster linkage development such as efficiency location-specific knowledge and technology and scale complexity. However little is known about the opportunity space for both policy making and local firms to create these linkages. To address this issue we incorporate the concept of change agency stemming from the path development literature into the discussion on production linkages to show how both (local) firm agency and system-level agency can achieve linkage creation for inclusive path transplantation. We illustrate the framework by scrutinizing the potential inclusion of solar energy companies in Namibia’s emerging green hydrogen economy. The study finds that while the potential for renewable energy companies in Namibia to participate in the value chain is limited an integrated bundle of measures relying on firm- and system-level agency could address peripheral contextual factors overcome entry barriers and leverage further potential for linkage creation in the solar energy sector: mobilizing the local workforce fostering inter-firm cooperation leveraging local advantages creating knowledge institutions enhancing the regulatory framework upgrading infrastructure and enforcing local content regulations.