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A Multicriteria Modeling Approach for Evaluating Power Generation Scenarios Under Uncertainty: The Case of Green Hydrogen in Greece


Clean energy technological innovations are widely acknowledged as a prerequisite to achieving ambitious longterm energy and climate targets. However, the optimal speed of their adoption has been parsimoniously studied in the literature. This study seeks to identify the optimal intensity of moving to a green hydrogen electricity sector in Greece, using the OSeMOSYS energy modeling framework. Green hydrogen policies are evaluated, first, on the basis of their robustness against uncertainty and, afterwards, against conflicting performance criteria and for different decision-making profiles towards risk, by applying the VIKOR and TOPSIS multi-criteria decision aid methods. Although our analysis focuses exclusively on the power sector and compares different rates of hydrogen penetration compared to a business-as-usual case without considering other game-changing innovations (such as other types of storage or carbon capture and storage), we find that a national transition to a green hydrogen economy can support Greece in potentially cutting at least 16 MtCO2 while stimulating investments of EUR 10–13 bn. over 2030–2050.

Funding source: The most important part of this research is based on the H2020 EC Project “PARIS REINFORCE” under Grant No. 820846, and the Horizon Europe EC Projects “IAM COMPACT” and “DIAMOND” under Grant No. 101056306 and 101081179 respectively.
Related subjects: Applications & Pathways
Countries: Finland ; Greece ; Sweden

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