Finland

This paper revisits the theoretical concepts of lock-in mechanisms to analyse transition processes in energy production and road transportation in the Nordic countries focussing on three technology platforms: advanced biofuels e-mobility and hydrogen and fuel cell electrical vehicles. The paper is based on a comparative analysis of case studies.<br/>The main lock-in mechanisms analysed are learning effects economies of scale economies of scope network externalities informational increasing returns technological interrelatedness collective action institutional learning effects and the differentiation of power.<br/>We show that very different path dependencies have been reinforced by the lock-in mechanisms. Hence the characteristics of existing regimes set the preconditions for the development of new transition pathways. The incumbent socio-technical regime is not just fossil-based but may also include mature niches specialised in the exploitation of renewable sources. This implies a need to distinguish between lock-in mechanisms favouring the old fossil-based regime well-established (mature) renewable energy niches or new pathways.

Hydrogen has been used as an industrial chemical for more than 100 years. Today hydrogen is used to manufacture ammonia and hence fertilizers as well as methanol and hydrogen peroxide both vital feedstocks for a wide variety of different chemical products. Furthermore in oil refineries hydrogen is used for the processing of intermediate products as well as to increase the hydrogen contents of the final products that are used propel the vehicles. However hydrogen has recently achieved new attention for its capabilities in reducing carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Producing hydrogen via low or totally carbon-free ways and using this “good” low-carbon hydrogen to replace hydrogen with a larger carbon footprint we can reduce carbon emissions. Furthermore using renewable electricity and captured carbon we can synthesise many such chemical products that are currently produced from fossil raw materials. This “Power-to-X” (P2X) is often seen as the eventual incarnation of the hydrogen economy. In addition the progress in technology both in hydrogen fuel cells and in polymer electrolyte electrolysers alike has increased their efficiencies.<br/>Furthermore production costs of renewable electricity by wind or solar power have lowered significantly. Thus cost of “good” hydrogen has also decreased markedly and production volumes are expected to increase rapidly. For these reasons many countries have raised interests in “good” hydrogen and have created roadmaps and strategies for their involvement in hydrogen. Hydrogen plays a key role also in combating climate change and reaching Finland's national goal of carbon neutrality by 2035. In recent years many clean hydrogen and P2X production methods have developed significantly and become commercially viable.<br/>This report was produced by a team of VTT experts on hydrogen and hydrogen-related technologies. The focus is in an outlook for low-carbon H2 production H2 utilization for green chemicals and fuels as well as storage transport and end-use especially during the next 10 years in Finland in connection to renewed EU regulations. This roadmap is expected to serve as the knowledge-base for further work such as shaping the hydrogen policy for Finland and determining the role of hydrogen in the national energy and climate policy.

A novel approach has been developed for quantitative evaluation of the susceptibility of steels and alloys to hydrogen embrittlement. The approach uses a combination of hydrogen thermal desorption spectroscopy (TDS) analysis with recent advances in machine learning technology to develop a regression artificial neural network (ANN) model predicting hydrogen-induced degradation of mechanical properties of steels. We describe the thermal desorption data processing artificial neural network architecture development and the learning process beneficial for the accuracy of the developed artificial neural network model. A data augmentation procedure was proposed to increase the diversity of the input data and improve the generalization of the model. The study of the relationship between thermal desorption spectroscopy data and the mechanical properties of steel evidences a strong correlation of their corresponding parameters. A prototype software application based on the developed model is introduced and is openly available. The developed prototype based on TDS analysis coupled with ANN is shown to be a valuable engineering tool for steel characterization and quantitative prediction of the degradation of steel properties caused by hydrogen.

Solutions that simulate hydrometallurgical base metal process streams with high nickel (Ni) and minor platinum (Pt) concentrations were used to create Pt/Ni nanoparticles on TiO₂ nanotube surfaces. For this electrochemical deposition – redox replacement (EDRR) was used that also allowed to control the nanoparticle size density and Pt/Ni content of the deposited nanoparticles. The Pt/Ni nanoparticle decorated titanium dioxide nanotubes (TiO₂ nanotubes) become strongly activated for photocatalytic hydrogen (H₂) evolution. Moreover EDRR facilitates nanoparticle formation without the need for any additional chemicals and is more effective than electrodeposition alone. Actually a 10000-time enrichment level of Pt took place on the TiO₂ surface when compared to Pt content in the solution with the EDRR method. The results show that hydrometallurgical streams offer great potential as an alternative raw material source for industrial catalyst production when coupled with redox replacement electrochemistry.

The 30 integrated steel plants operating in the European Union (EU) are among the largest single-point CO₂ emitters in the region. The deployment of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (bio-CCS) could significantly reduce their emission intensities. In detail the results demonstrate that CO₂ emission reduction targets of up to 20% can be met entirely by biomass deployment. A slow CCS technology introduction on top of biomass deployment is expected as the requirement for emission reduction increases further. Bio-CCS could then be a key technology particularly in terms of meeting targets above 50% with CO₂ avoidance costs ranging between €60 and €100 tCO2−1 at full-scale deployment. The future of bio-CCS and its utilisation on a larger scale would therefore only be viable if such CO₂ avoidance cost were to become economically appealing. Small and medium plants in particular would economically benefit from sharing CO₂ pipeline networks. CO₂ transport however makes a relatively small contribution to the total CO₂ avoidance cost. In the future the role of bio-CCS in the European iron and steelmaking industry will also be influenced by non-economic conditions such as regulations public acceptance realistic CO₂ storage capacity and the progress of other mitigation technologies.

We combine previously separate models of Northern European power markets local district heating and cooling (DHC²) systems and biomass supply in a single modelling framework to study local and system level impacts of bioenergy technologies in phasing out fossil fuels from a DHC system of the Finnish capital. We model multiple future scenarios and assess the impacts on energy security flexibility provision economic performance and emissions. In the case of Helsinki heat only boiler is a robust solution from economic and climate perspective but reduces local electricity self-sufficiency. Combined heat and power solution is more valuable investment for the system than for the city indicating a conflict of interest and biased results in system level models. Bringing a biorefinery near the city to utilize excess heat would reduce emissions and increase investment's profitability but biomass availability might be a bigger limiting factor. Our results show that the availability of domestic biomass resources constrains bio-based technologies in Southern Finland and further highlights the importance of considering both local and system level impacts. Novel option to boost biorefinery's production with hydrogen from excess electricity is beneficial with increasing shares of wind power.

The influence of hydrogen on the mechanical performance of a hot-rolled martensitic steel was studied by means of constant extension rate test (CERT) and constant load test (CLT) followed with thermal desorption spectroscopy measurements. The steel shows a reduction in tensile strength up to 25% of ultimate tensile strength (UTS) at critical hydrogen concentrations determined to be about 1.1 wt.ppm and 50% of UTS at hydrogen concentrations of 2 wt.ppm. No further strength degradation was observed up to hydrogen concentrations of 4.8 wt.ppm. It was observed that the interplay between local hydrogen concentrations and local stress states accompanied with the presence of total average hydrogen reducing the general plasticity of the specimen are responsible for the observed strength degradation of the steel at the critical concentrations of hydrogen. Under CLT the steel does not show sensitivity to hydrogen at applied loads below 50% of UTS under continuous electrochemical hydrogen charging up to 85 h. Hydrogen enhanced creep rates during constant load increased linearly with increasing hydrogen concentration in the steel.

Simultaneous and interactive combustion of three fuels with differing reactivities is investigated by numerical simulations. In the present study conventional dual-fuel (DF) ignition phenomena relevant to DF compression ignition (CI) engines are extended and explored in tri-fuel (TF) context. In the present TF setup a low reactivity fuel (LRF) methane or methanol is perfectly mixed with hydrogen and air to form the primary fuel blend at the lean equivalence ratio of 0.5. Further such primary fuel blends are ignited by a high-reactivity fuel (HRF) here n-dodecane under conditions similar to HRF spray assisted ignition. Here ignition is relevant to the HRF containing parts of the tri-fuel mixtures while flame propagation is assumed to occur in the premixed LRF/ containing end gas regions. The role of hydrogen as TF mixture reactivity modulator is explored. Mixing is characterized by n-dodecane mixture fraction ξ and molar ratio . When x < 0.6 minor changes are observed for the first- and second-stage ignition delay time (IDT) of tri-fuel compared to dual-fuel blends (x = 0). For methane when x > 0.6 first- and second-stage IDT increase by factor 1.4–2. For methanol a respective decrease by factor 1.2–2 is reported. Such contrasting trends for the two LRFs are explained by reaction sensitivity analysis indicating the importance of OH radical production/consumption in the ignition process. Observations on LRF/ end gas laminar flame speed () indicate that  increases with x due to the highly diffusive features of . For methane  increase with x is more significant than for methanol.

The 2018 IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s) report defined the goal to limit global warming to 1.5 ◦C by 2050. This will require “rapid and far-reaching transitions in land energy industry buildings transport and cities”. The challenge falls on all sectors especially energy production and industry. In this regard the recent progress and future challenges of greenhouse gas emissions and energy supply are first briefly introduced. Then the current situation of the steel industry is presented. Steel production is predicted to grow by 25–30% by 2050. The dominant iron-making route blast furnace (BF) especially is an energy-intensive process based on fossil fuel consumption; the steel sector is thus responsible for about 7% of all anthropogenic CO2 emissions. In order to take up the 2050 challenge emissions should see significant cuts. Correspondingly specific emissions (t CO2/t steel) should be radically decreased. Several large research programs in big steelmaking countries and the EU have been carried out over the last 10–15 years or are ongoing. All plausible measures to decrease CO2 emissions were explored here based on the published literature. The essential results are discussed and concluded. The specific emissions of “world steel” are currently at 1.8 t CO2/t steel. Improved energy efficiency by modernizing plants and adopting best available technologies in all process stages could decrease the emissions by 15–20%. Further reductions towards 1.0 t CO2/t steel level are achievable via novel technologies like top gas recycling in BF oxygen BF and maximal replacement of coke by biomass. These processes are however waiting for substantive industrialization. Generally substituting hydrogen for carbon in reductants and fuels like natural gas and coke gas can decrease CO2 emissions remarkably. The same holds for direct reduction processes (DR) which have spread recently exceeding 100 Mt annual capacity. More radical cut is possible via CO2 capture and storage (CCS). The technology is well-known in the oil industry; and potential applications in other sectors including the steel industry are being explored. While this might be a real solution in propitious circumstances it is hardly universally applicable in the long run. More auspicious is the concept that aims at utilizing captured carbon in the production of chemicals food or fuels e.g. methanol (CCU CCUS). The basic idea is smart but in the early phase of its application the high energy-consumption and costs are disincentives. The potential of hydrogen as a fuel and reductant is well-known but it has a supporting role in iron metallurgy. In the current fight against climate warming H2 has come into the “limelight” as a reductant fuel and energy storage. The hydrogen economy concept contains both production storage distribution and uses. In ironmaking several research programs have been launched for hydrogen production and reduction of iron oxides. Another global trend is the transfer from fossil fuel to electricity. “Green” electricity generation and hydrogen will be firmly linked together. The electrification of steel production is emphasized upon in this paper as the recycled scrap is estimated to grow from the 30% level to 50% by 2050. Finally in this review all means to reduce specific CO2 emissions have been summarized. By thorough modernization of production facilities and energy systems and by adopting new pioneering methods “world steel” could reach the level of 0.4–0.5 t CO2/t steel and thus reduce two-thirds of current annual emissions.

Green hydrogen will be an essential part of the future 100% sustainable energy and industry system. Up to one-third of the required solar and wind electricity would eventually be used for water electrolysis to produce hydrogen increasing the cumulative electrolyzer capacity to about 17 TWel by 2050. The key method applied in this research is a learning curve approach for the key technologies i.e. solar photovoltaics (PV) and water electrolyzers and levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH). Sensitivities for the hydrogen demand and various input parameters are considered. Electrolyzer capital expenditure (CAPEX) for a large utility-scale system is expected to decrease from the current 400 €/kWel to 240 €/kWel by 2030 and to 80 €/kWel by 2050. With the continuing solar PV cost decrease this will lead to an LCOH decrease from the current 31–81 €/ MWhH2LHV (1.0–2.7 €/kgH2) to 20–54 €/MWhH2LHV (0.7–1.8 €/kgH2) by 2030 and 10–27 €/MWhH2LHV (0.3–0.9 €/kgH2) by 2050 depending on the location. The share of PV electricity cost in the LCOH will increase from the current 63% to 74% by 2050.