Costs and Benefits of Highly Ambitious Energy Transition Pathways for Europe

Climate change and energy crises push Europe to accelerate the energy-industry transition towards higher shares of renewable energy and a more efficient integrated electricity-based energy-industry system. The study examines transition scenarios ranging from carbon neutrality reached in 2050 to highest ambitions with 100% renewable electricity supply reached by 2030 and an overall carbon-neutral energy-industry system by 2035. The fastest transition coincidences with higher cost, but still with an acceptable tolerance. Reaching carbon neutrality by 2040 allows for a substantial reduction in CO2 emissions and energy costs are lower compared to the fastest transition. Allowing e-fuel imports substantially reduces the energy cost in Europe compared to complete energy sovereignty, with an optimal import share at only 7% of primary energy demand. Reaching an affordable energy supply requires close cooperation of European countries to exploit the best renewable resources and all sources of energy system flexibility to enable a low-cost energy supply.