Policy & Socio-Economics
Power Sector Scenarios for the Fifth Carbon Budget
Oct 2015
Publication
This report sets out scenarios for the UK power sector in 2030 as an input to the Committee’s advice on the fifth carbon budget.<br/>These scenarios are not intended to set out a prescriptive path. Instead they provide a tool for the Committee to verify that its advice can be achieved with manageable impacts in order to meet the criteria set out in the Climate Change Act including competitiveness affordability and energy security.
Future Regulation of the Gas Grid
Jun 2016
Publication
The CCC has established a variety of viable scenarios in which UK decarbonisation targets can be met. Each has consequences for the way in which the UK’s gas network infrastructure is utilised. This report considers the implications of decarbonisation for the future regulation of the gas grid.<br/>The CCC’s 5th Carbon Budget envisaged different scenarios that would enable the UK to meet its emissions targets for 2050. These scenarios represent holistic analyses based on internally consistent combinations of different technologies which could deliver carbon reductions across different sectors of the economy.<br/>The CCC’s scenarios incorporate projections of the demand for natural gas to 2050. The scenarios imply that the volume of throughput on the gas networks1 and the nature and location of network usage is likely to change significantly to meet emissions targets. They are also characterised by significant uncertainty.<br/>Under some decarbonisation scenarios gas networks could be re-purposed to supply hydrogen instead of natural gas meaning there would be ongoing need for network infrastructure.<br/>In other scenarios gas demand in buildings is largely replaced by electric alternatives meaning portions of the low pressure gas distribution networks could be decommissioned.<br/>Patchwork scenarios are also possible in which there is a mixture of these outcomes across the country.<br/>In this project the CCC wished to assess the potential implications for gas networks under these different demand scenarios; and evaluate the associated challenges for Government and regulatory policy. The challenge for BEIS and Ofgem is how to regulate in a way that keeps options open while uncertainty persists about the best solution for the UK; and at the same time how best to make policy and regulatory decisions which would serve to reduce this uncertainty. Both Government and Ofgem have policy and regulatory levers that they can use – and we identify and evaluate such levers in this report.
The Fifth Carbon Budget: The Next Step Towards a Low-carbon Economy
Nov 2015
Publication
This report sets out our advice on the fifth carbon budget covering the period 2028-2032 as required under Section 4 of the Climate Change Act; the Government will propose draft legislation for the fifth budget in summer 2016.
Zero Emission HGV Infrastructure Requirements
May 2019
Publication
The Committee on Climate Change commissioned Ricardo Energy and Environment to carry out research to assess the infrastructure requirements and costs for the deployment of different zero emission heavy goods vehicle (HGV) technology options. The infrastructure considered includes hydrogen refuelling stations ultra-rapid charge points at strategic locations electric overhead recharging infrastructure on the roads and hybrid solutions combining these options.
The research concluded:
It is feasible to build refuelling infrastructure to support the deployment of zero emission HGVs so that they constitute the vast majority of vehicles on the roads by 2050.
Looking at infrastructure alone deploying hydrogen refuelling stations is the cheapest of the options costing a total of £1.7bn in capital expenditure in the time period from now until 2060. The strategic deployment of ultra-rapid charge points is the most expensive at £10.7bn. In all scenarios a significant number of smaller electric HGVs are deployed as these options are available and operating on the streets today. The cost of installing chargers at depots for these vehicles is included.
When the costs of the fuel as well as the infrastructure are included the costs of deploying electricity or hydrogen HGVs are cheaper compared to the continued use of diesel.
Moving to zero-carbon infrastructure for HDVs is a significant challenge and requires planning co-ordination supply chains resource and materials and a skilled workforce as well as strong government policy to enable the market to deliver.
The Report can be found here
The research concluded:
It is feasible to build refuelling infrastructure to support the deployment of zero emission HGVs so that they constitute the vast majority of vehicles on the roads by 2050.
Looking at infrastructure alone deploying hydrogen refuelling stations is the cheapest of the options costing a total of £1.7bn in capital expenditure in the time period from now until 2060. The strategic deployment of ultra-rapid charge points is the most expensive at £10.7bn. In all scenarios a significant number of smaller electric HGVs are deployed as these options are available and operating on the streets today. The cost of installing chargers at depots for these vehicles is included.
When the costs of the fuel as well as the infrastructure are included the costs of deploying electricity or hydrogen HGVs are cheaper compared to the continued use of diesel.
Moving to zero-carbon infrastructure for HDVs is a significant challenge and requires planning co-ordination supply chains resource and materials and a skilled workforce as well as strong government policy to enable the market to deliver.
The Report can be found here
Government Strategy on Hydrogen - The Netherlands
Apr 2020
Publication
Low-carbon gases are indispensable to any energy system that is reliable clean affordable safe and is suited to spatial integration and zero-carbon hydrogen is a crucial link in that chain1. The most common element in the universe seems to have a highly bonding effect in the Netherlands – particularly as a result of the unique starting position of our country. This is made clear in the agreements of the National Climate Agreement which includes an ambitious target for hydrogen supported by a large and broad group of stakeholders. Industrial clusters and ports regard hydrogen as an indispensable part of their future and sustainability strategy. For the transport sector hydrogen (in combination with fuel cells) is crucial to achieving zero emissions transport. The agricultural sector has identified opportunities for the production of hydrogen and for its use. Cities regions and provinces are keen to get started on implementing hydrogen.<br/>The government embraces these targets and recognises the power of the framework for action demonstrated by so many parties. The focus on clean hydrogen in the Netherlands will lead to the creation of new jobs improvements to air quality and moreover is crucial to the energy transition.
A Critical Study of Stationary Energy Storage Policies in Australia in an International Context: The Role of Hydrogen and Battery Technologies
Aug 2016
Publication
This paper provides a critical study of current Australian and leading international policies aimed at supporting electrical energy storage for stationary power applications with a focus on battery and hydrogen storage technologies. It demonstrates that global leaders such as Germany and the U.S. are actively taking steps to support energy storage technologies through policy and regulatory change. This is principally to integrate increasing amounts of intermittent renewable energy (wind and solar) that will be required to meet high renewable energy targets. The relevance of this to the Australian energy market is that whilst it is unique it does have aspects in common with the energy markets of these global leaders. This includes regions of high concentrations of intermittent renewable energy (Texas and California) and high penetration rates of residential solar photovoltaics (PV) (Germany). Therefore Australian policy makers have a good opportunity to observe what is working in an international context to support energy storage. These learnings can then be used to help shape future policy directions and guide Australia along the path to a sustainable energy future.
The Journey to Smarter Heat
Mar 2019
Publication
As the UK’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases the supply of domestic industrial and commercial heat must be decarbonised if the UK is to meet its climate change targets.<br/><br/>This report publishes the outcomes from Phase 1 of the Energy Technologies Institute’s Smart Systems and Heat programme highlighting that for the UK to transition to a low carbon heating system it must understand consumer needs and behaviours while connecting this with the development and integration of technologies and new business models.<br/><br/>Written by the ETI with support from the Energy Systems Catapult this report tackles three interconnected areas: heating needs and controls within the home; heating infrastructure and building retrofit at a local level; and the operation and governance of the whole system.<br/><br/>The research also shows that as part of a low carbon heating system upgrade advanced controls are critical to performance sizing and operating costs enabling smaller appliances and lower peak electricity demands and maximising the efficiency of existing infrastructure. With significant fabric retrofits potentially required in around 10 million of the existing 28 million dwellings in the UK housing stock the report recommends that building new homes to be both very efficient and “low carbon ready” is a low regret decision which should be progressed with some urgency.
Reducing Emissions in Scotland – 2016 Progress Report
Sep 2016
Publication
This is the Committee’s fifth report on Scotland’s progress towards meeting emission reduction targets as requested by Scottish Ministers under the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009.<br/>The Scottish Act sets a long-term target to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by at least 80% in 2050 relative to 1990 with an interim target to reduce emissions by 42% in 2020. Secondary legislation passed in October 2010 and October 2011 also set a series of annual emission reduction targets for 2010 to 2022 and 2023 to 2027 respectively. We advised the Scottish Government on annual targets for the period 2028 to 2032 in March 2016 and July 2016.<br/>The report reveals that Scotland’s annual emissions reduction target for 2014 was met with gross Scottish greenhouse gas emissions including international aviation and shipping falling by 8.6% in 2014. This compares to a 7.3% fall for the UK as a whole. Since 1990 gross Scottish emissions have fallen nearly 40% compared to nearly 33% at a UK level.
Meeting Carbon Budgets – Ensuring a Low-carbon Recovery
Jun 2010
Publication
As part of its statutory role the Committee provides annual reports to Parliament on the progress that Government is making in meeting carbon budgets and in reducing emissions of greenhouse gases.<br/>Meeting Carbon Budgets – ensuring a low-carbon recovery is the Committee’s 2nd progress report. Within this report we assess the latest emissions data and determine whether emissions reductions have occurred as a result of the recession or as a result of other external factors. We assess Government’s progress towards achieving emissions reductions in 4 key areas of: Power Buildings and Industry Transport and Agriculture.
2050 Energy Scenarios: The UK Gas Networks Role in a 2050 Whole Energy System
Jul 2016
Publication
Energy used for heat accounts (in terms of final consumption) for approximately 45% of our total energy needs and is critical for families to heat their homes on winter days. Decarbonising heat while still meeting peak winter heating demands is recognised as a big perhaps the biggest challenge for the industry. The way heat has been delivered in the UK has not fundamentally changed for decades and huge investments have been made in gas infrastructure assets ranging from import terminals to networks through to the appliances in our homes. Changing how heat is delivered whichever way is chosen will be a major economic and practical challenge affecting families and businesses everywhere. Any plan to decarbonise will need to address power and transport alongside heat. Our report has also looked at potential decarbonisation of power and transport as part of a whole energy system approach.
In this report we explore ways that the heat sector can be decarbonised by looking at four possible future scenarios set in 2050. These stylised scenarios present illustrative snapshots of alternative energy solutions. The scenarios do not present a detailed roadmap – indeed the future may include some elements from each. We have analysed the advantages disadvantages and costs of each scenario. All our scenarios meet the 2050 Carbon emissions targets. In this report we have concentrated on reductions to CO2 emissions and we have not considered other greenhouse gases.
In this report we explore ways that the heat sector can be decarbonised by looking at four possible future scenarios set in 2050. These stylised scenarios present illustrative snapshots of alternative energy solutions. The scenarios do not present a detailed roadmap – indeed the future may include some elements from each. We have analysed the advantages disadvantages and costs of each scenario. All our scenarios meet the 2050 Carbon emissions targets. In this report we have concentrated on reductions to CO2 emissions and we have not considered other greenhouse gases.
UK Climate Action Following the Paris Agreement
Oct 2016
Publication
The Paris Agreement marks a significant positive step in global action to tackle climate change. This report considers the domestic actions the UK Government should take as part of a fair contribution to the aims of the Agreement.<br/>The report concludes that the Paris Agreement is a significant step forward in global efforts to tackle climate change. It is more ambitious in its aims to limit climate change than the basis of the UK’s existing climate targets. However it is not yet appropriate to set new UK targets. Existing targets are already stretching and the priority is to take action to meet them.
Pathways to Net-Zero: Decarbonising the Gas Networks in Great Britain
Oct 2019
Publication
Natural gas plays a central role in the UK energy system today but it is also a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The UK committed in 2008 to reduce GHG emissions by at least 80% compared to 1990 levels by 2050. In June 2019 a more ambitious target was adopted into law and the UK became the first major economy to commit to “net-zero” emissions by 2050. In this context the Energy Networks Association (ENA) commissioned Navigant to explore the role that the gas sector can play in the decarbonisation of the Great Britain (GB) energy system. In this report we demonstrate that low carbon and renewable gases can make a fundamental contribution to the decarbonisation pathway between now and 2050.
Gas Future Scenarios Project- Final Report: A Report on a Study for the Energy Networks Association Gas Futures Group
Nov 2010
Publication
When looking out to 2050 there is huge uncertainty surrounding how gas will be consumed transported and sourced in Great Britain (GB). The extent of the climate change challenge is now widely accepted and the UK Government has introduced a legislative requirement for aggressive reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions out to 2050. In addition at European Union (EU) level a package of measures has been implemented to reduce greenhouse gas emissions improve energy efficiency and significantly increase the share of energy produced from renewable sources by 2020. These policy developments naturally raise the question of what role gas has to play in the future energy mix.
To help inform this debate the Energy Networks Association Gas Futures Group (ENA GFG) commissioned Redpoint and Trilemma to undertake a long-range scenario-based modelling study of the future utilisation of gas out to 2050 and the consequential impacts of this for gas networks. Our modelling assumptions draw heavily on the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) 2050 Pathways analysis and we consider that our conclusions are fully compatible with both DECC‟s work and current EU policy objectives.
Link to document
To help inform this debate the Energy Networks Association Gas Futures Group (ENA GFG) commissioned Redpoint and Trilemma to undertake a long-range scenario-based modelling study of the future utilisation of gas out to 2050 and the consequential impacts of this for gas networks. Our modelling assumptions draw heavily on the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) 2050 Pathways analysis and we consider that our conclusions are fully compatible with both DECC‟s work and current EU policy objectives.
Link to document
Net Zero – Technical Report
May 2019
Publication
This technical report accompanies the ‘Net Zero’ advice report which is the Committee’s recommendation to the UK Government and Devolved Administrations on the date for a net-zero emissions target in the UK and revised long-term targets in Scotland and Wales.<br/>The conclusions in our advice report are supported by detailed analysis that has been carried out for each sector of the economy plus consideration of F-gas emissions and greenhouse gas removals. The purpose of this technical report is to lay out that analysis.
Industrial Decarbonisation Strategy
Mar 2021
Publication
The UK is a world leader in the fight against climate change. In 2019 we became the first major economy in the world to pass laws to end its contribution to global warming by 2050. Reaching this target will require extensive systematic change across all sectors including industry. We must get this change right as the products made by industry are vital to life in the UK and the sector supports local economies across the country.<br/><br/>This strategy covers the full range of UK industry sectors: metals and minerals chemicals food and drink paper and pulp ceramics glass oil refineries and less energy-intensive manufacturing. These businesses account for around one sixth of UK emissions and transformation of their manufacturing processes is key if we are to meet our emissions targets over the coming decades (BEIS Final UK greenhouse gas emissions from national statistics: 1990 to 2018: Supplementary tables 2020).<br/><br/>The aim of this strategy is to show how the UK can have a thriving industrial sector aligned with the net zero target without pushing emissions and business abroad and how government will act to support this. An indicative roadmap to net zero for UK industry based on the content in this strategy is set out at the end of this summary. This strategy is part of a series of publications from government which combined show how the net zero transition will take place across the whole UK economy.
Australia's National Hydrogen Strategy
Nov 2019
Publication
Australia’s National Hydrogen Strategy sets a vision for a clean innovative safe and competitive hydrogen industry that benefits all Australians. It aims to position our industry as a major player by 2030.<br/>The strategy outlines an adaptive approach that equips Australia to scale up quickly as the hydrogen market grows. It includes a set of nationally coordinated actions involving governments industry and the community.
The Sixth Carbon Budget: The UK's Path to Net Zero
Dec 2020
Publication
The Sixth Carbon Budget report is based on an extensive programme of analysis consultation and consideration by the Committee and its staff building on the evidence published last year for our Net Zero advice. In support of the advice in this report we have also produced:
- A Methodology Report setting out the evidence and methodology behind the scenarios.
- A Policy Report setting out the changes to policy that could drive the changes necessary particularly over the 2020s.
- All the charts and data behind the report as well as a separate dataset for the Sixth Carbon Budget scenarios which sets out more details and data on the pathways than can be included in this report.
- A public Call for Evidence several new research projects three expert advisory groups and deep dives into the roles of local authorities and businesses.
What Role for Hydrogen in Turkey’s Energy Future?
Nov 2021
Publication
Since early 2020 Turkey has been considering the role of hydrogen in its energy future with a view to producing a hydrogen strategy in the next few months. Unlike many other countries considering the role of hydrogen Turkey has only recently (October 2021) ratified the Paris Agreement addressing climate change and its interest is driven more by geopolitical strategic and energy security concerns. Specifically with concerns about the high share of imported energy particularly gas from Russia it sees hydrogen as part of a policy to increase indigenous energy production. Turkey already has a relatively high share of renewable power generation particularly hydro and recent solar auctions have resulted in low prices leading to a focus on potential green hydrogen production. However it still generates over half of its electricity from fossil fuel including over 25% from coal and lignite. Against that background it provides an interesting case study on some of the key aspects that a country needs to consider when looking to incorporate low-carbon hydrogen into the development of their energy economy.
The research paper can be found on their website
The research paper can be found on their website
Scottish Hydrogen Assessment
Dec 2020
Publication
During 2020 the Scottish Government in partnership with Highlands and Islands Enterprise and Scottish Enterprise commissioned Arup and E4Tech to carry out a hydrogen assessment to deepen our evidence base in order to inform our policies on hydrogen going forward. The assessment aims to investigate how and where hydrogen may fit within the evolving energy system technically geographically and economically. To assist in this consideration a key part of the Hydrogen Assessment is the development of distinct viable scenarios for hydrogen deployment in Scotland and the economic assessment of those scenarios.<br/>From our assessment it is clear that hydrogen is not just an energy and emissions reduction opportunity; it could also have an important role in generating new economic opportunities in Scotland. The assessment forms an important part of the evidence base that informed the development of the Hydrogen Policy Statement.
Annual Science Review 2020
Mar 2020
Publication
HSE maintains a national network of doctors appointed doctors and approved medical examiners of divers who are appointed to deliver certain vital functions under our regulatory framework.1 Over the last year or so we have been reaching out to them and offering training and networking opportunities so that we can learn from each other. Their intelligence from real workplaces helps ensure that our medical approach is grounded by what actually happens and this helped us ensure that our health and work strategy took account of their views. I think that it is increasingly important to share our approaches and our research outcomes on the global stage in an attempt to learn from other researchers around the world. A good example is the work described in this report on the artificial stone issue. I have been lucky enough to work with the Australian research group who identified an epidemic of silicosis from this exposure in their country and helped to facilitate some cross-comparison of materials with our hygienists and measurement scientists. The dialogue continues and I hope that by doing so we can help to prevent such an epidemic from occurring in the UK.<br/>All HSE research findings are published as soon as we are able to do this and this demonstrates both my and Andrew Curran’s commitment to ensure that we publish the evidence we generate to make workplaces healthier for all.
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