Policy & Socio-Economics
Lock-In Effects on the Energy Sector: Evidence from Hydrogen Patenting Activities
Apr 2022
Publication
The aim of the paper is to analyze how regulatory design and its framework’s topics other than macroeconomic factors might impact green innovation by taking into consideration a brand-new renewable source of energy that is becoming more and more important in recent years: hydrogen and fuel cell patenting activities. Such activities have been used as a proxy for green technological change in a panel data of 52 countries over a 6-year period. A series of sectorial energy regulation and macroeconomic variables were tested to assess their impact on that technological frontier of green energy transition policy. As might have been expected the empirical analysis carried out with the model that was prefigured confirms significant evidence of lock-in effects on fossil fuel policies. The model confirms however another evidence: countries already investing in renewables might be willing to invest in hydrogen projects. A sort of reinforcement to the further development of green sustainable strategies seems to derive from having already concretely undertaken this direction. Future research should exploit different approaches to the research question and address the econometric criticalities mentioned in the paper along with exploiting results of the paper with further investigations.
Hydrogen: A Reviewable Energy Perspective
Sep 2019
Publication
Hydrogen has emerged as an important part of the clean energy mix needed to ensure a sustainable future. Falling costs for hydrogen produced with renewable energy combined with the urgency of cutting greenhouse-gas emissions has given clean hydrogen unprecedented political and business momentum.
This paper from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) examines the potential of hydrogen fuel for hard-to-decarbonise energy uses including energy-intensive industries trucks aviation shipping and heating applications. But the decarbonisation impact depends on how hydrogen is produced. Current and future sourcing options can be divided into grey (fossil fuel-based) blue (fossil fuel-based production with carbon capture utilisation and storage) and green (renewables-based) hydrogen. Green hydrogen produced through renewable-powered electrolysis is projected to grow rapidly in the coming years.
Among other findings:
Important synergies exist between hydrogen and renewable energy. Hydrogen can boost renewable electricity market growth and broaden the reach of renewable solutions.
Trade of energy-intensive commodities produced with hydrogen including “e-fuels” could spur faster uptake or renewables and bring wider economic benefits.
This paper from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) examines the potential of hydrogen fuel for hard-to-decarbonise energy uses including energy-intensive industries trucks aviation shipping and heating applications. But the decarbonisation impact depends on how hydrogen is produced. Current and future sourcing options can be divided into grey (fossil fuel-based) blue (fossil fuel-based production with carbon capture utilisation and storage) and green (renewables-based) hydrogen. Green hydrogen produced through renewable-powered electrolysis is projected to grow rapidly in the coming years.
Among other findings:
Important synergies exist between hydrogen and renewable energy. Hydrogen can boost renewable electricity market growth and broaden the reach of renewable solutions.
- Electrolysers can add demand-side flexibility. In advanced European energy markets electrolysers are growing from megawatt to gigawatt scale.
- Blue hydrogen is not inherently carbon free. This type of production requires carbon-dioxide (CO2) monitoring verification and certification.
- Synergies may exist between green and blue hydrogen deployment given the chance for economies of scale in hydrogen use or logistics.
- A hydrogen-based energy transition will not happen overnight. Hydrogen use is likely to catch on for specific target applications. The need for new supply infrastructure could limit hydrogen use to countries adopting this strategy.
- Dedicated hydrogen pipelines have existed for decades and could be refurbished along with existing gas pipelines. The implications of replacing gas abruptly or changing mixtures gradually should be further explored.
Trade of energy-intensive commodities produced with hydrogen including “e-fuels” could spur faster uptake or renewables and bring wider economic benefits.
Flexibility in Great Britain
May 2021
Publication
The Flexibility in Great Britain project analysed the system-level value of deploying flexibility across the heat transport industry and power sectors in Great Britain to provide a robust evidence-base on the role and value of flexibility in a net zero system.
Overview
Findings from this groundbreaking analysis of the future net zero energy system in Great Britain are expected to have profound implications for policymakers households and the wider energy sector across Great Britain.
Key findings include:
Read the Full Report here on the Carbon Trust Website
View the interactive analysis here at the Carbon Trust Website
Watch an accompanying video here at the Carbon Trust Youtube channel
Overview
Findings from this groundbreaking analysis of the future net zero energy system in Great Britain are expected to have profound implications for policymakers households and the wider energy sector across Great Britain.
Key findings include:
- Embedding greater flexibility across the entire energy system will reduce the cost of achieving net zero for all consumers while assuring energy security.
- Investing in flexibility is a no-regrets decision as it has the potential to deliver material net savings of up to £16.7bn per annum across all scenarios analysed in 2050.
- A more flexible system will accelerate the benefits of decarbonisation supported by decentralisation and digitalisation.
- To maximise the benefits of flexibility households and businesses should play an active role in the development and operation of the country’s future energy system as energy use for transport heat and appliances becomes more integrated.
- Policymakers should preserve existing flexibility options and act now to maximise future flexibility such as by building it into ‘smart’ appliances or building standards.
Read the Full Report here on the Carbon Trust Website
View the interactive analysis here at the Carbon Trust Website
Watch an accompanying video here at the Carbon Trust Youtube channel
The Road to Zero: Next Steps Towards Cleaner Road Transport and Delivering our Industrial Strategy
Jul 2018
Publication
Our mission is to put the UK at the forefront of the design and manufacturing of zero emission vehicles and for all new cars and vans to be effectively zero emission by 2040. As set out in the NO2 plan we will end the sale of new conventional petrol and diesel cars and vans by 2040. By then we expect the majority of new cars and vans sold to be 100% zero emission and all new cars and vans to have significant zero emission capability. By 2050 we want almost every car and van to be zero emission. We want to see at least 50% and as many as 70% of new car sales and up to 40% of new van sales being ultra low emission by 2030.<br/>We expect this transition to be industry and consumer led supported in the coming years by the measures set out in this strategy. We will review progress towards our ambitions by 2025. Against a rapidly evolving international context we will seek to maintain the UK’s leadership position and meet our ambitions and will consider what interventions are required if not enough progress is being made.
The World’s Energy Agenda & Its Evolution: Issues Monitor 2019
Feb 2019
Publication
In an era where the energy landscape is in constant transition energy leaders must pay attention to many different signals of change and distinguish key issues from the noise. The Issues Monitor identifies shifting patterns of connected issues which are shaping energy transitions.<br/>This report takes a focused look at the issues facing the energy transition in Europe using data collected by surveying over 40 leaders and shapers representing the European Transmission and Distributors Operators. This Issues Monitor outlines clear Action Priorities and Critical Uncertainties for different stakeholder groups mapping them out intuitively to promote a shared understanding of the issues. These maps also help identifiy regional variations understand differing areas of concern as well as follow the evolution of specific technology trends.<br/>Produced in partnership with ENTSO-E and E.DSO.
Analysing Long-term Opportunities for Offshore Energy System Integration in the Danish North Sea
Aug 2021
Publication
This study analyzes future synergies between the Oil and Gas (O&G) and renewables sectors in a Danish context and explores how exploiting these synergies could lead to economic and environmental benefits. We review and highlight relevant technologies and related projects and synthesize the state of the art in offshore energy system integration. All of these preliminary results serve as input data for a holistic energy system analysis in the Balmorel modeling framework. With a timeframe out to 2050 and model scope including all North Sea neighbouring countries this analysis explores a total of nine future scenarios for the North Sea energy system. The main results include an immediate electrification of all operational Danish platforms by linking them to the shore and/or a planned Danish energy island. These measures result in cost and CO2 emissions savings compared to a BAU scenario of 72% and 85% respectively. When these platforms cease production this is followed by the repurposing of the platforms into hydrogen generators with up to 3.6 GW of electrolysers and the development of up to 5.8 GW of floating wind. The generated hydrogen is assumed to power the future transport sector and is delivered to shore in existing and/or new purpose-built pipelines. The contribution of the O&G sector to this hydrogen production amounts to around 19 TWh which represents about 2% of total European hydrogen demand for transport in 2050. The levelized costs (LCOE) of producing this hydrogen in 2050 are around 4 €2020/kg H2 which is around twice those expected in similar studies. But this does not account for energy policies that may incentivize green hydrogen production in the future which would serve to reduce this LCOE to a level that is more competitive with other sources.
Developing Community Trust in Hydrogen
Oct 2019
Publication
The report documents current knowledge of the social issues surrounding hydrogen projects. It reviews leading practice stakeholder engagement and communication strategies and findings from focus groups and research activities across Australia.
The full report can be found at this link.
The full report can be found at this link.
Energy Transition in France
May 2022
Publication
To address the climate emergency France is committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. It plans to significantly increase the contribution of renewable energy in its energy mix. The share of renewable energy in its electricity production which amounts to 25.5% in 2020 should reach at least 40% in 2030. This growth poses several new challenges that require policy makers and regulators to act on the technological changes and expanding need for flexibility in power systems. This document presents the main strategies and projects developed in France as well as various recommendations to accompany and support its energy transition policy.
Opportunities for Hydrogen Energy Technologies Considering the National Energy & Climate Plans
Aug 2020
Publication
The study analyses the role of hydrogen in the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) and identifies and highlights opportunities for hydrogen technologies to contribute to effective and efficient achievement of the 2030 climate and energy targets of the EU and its Member States.<br/>The study focuses on the potential and opportunities of renewable hydrogen produced by electrolysers using renewable electricity and of low-carbon hydrogen produced by steam methane reforming combined with CCS. The opportunities for and impacts of hydrogen deployment are assessed and summarised in individual fiches per Member State.<br/>The study analyses to what extent policy measures and industrial initiatives are already being taken to facilitate large-scale implementation of hydrogen in the current and the next decades. The study concludes by determining the CO2 reduction potential beyond what is foreseen in the NECPs through hydrogen energy technologies estimating the reduction of fossil fuel imports and reliance the prospective cost and the value added and jobs created. National teams working on decarbonisation roadmaps and updates of the NECPs are welcome to consider the opportunities and benefits of hydrogen deployment identified in this study.
Disrupting the UK energy system: Causes, Impacts and Policy Implications
Jun 2019
Publication
With government legislating for net-zero by 2050 what does this mean for UK energy markets and business models?<br/>Getting to net-zero will require economy-wide changes that extend well beyond the energy system leading to rapid and unprecedented change in all aspects of society.<br/>This report shines a light on the level of disruption that could be required by some sectors to meet net-zero targets. With many businesses making strong commitments to a net-zero carbon future the report highlights the stark future facing specific sectors. Some will need to make fundamental change to their business models and operating practices whilst others could be required to phase out core assets. Government may need to play a role in purposefully disrupting specific sectors to ensure the move away from high carbon business models facilitating the transition a zero-carbon economy. Sector specific impactsThe in-depth analysis presented in ‘Disrupting the UK energy systems: causes impacts and policy implications’ focuses on four key areas of the economy highlighting how they may need to change to remain competitive and meet future carbon targets.<br/>Heat: All approaches for heat decarbonisation are potentially disruptive with policymakers favouring those that are less disruptive to consumers. Since it is unlikely that rapid deployment of low carbon heating will be driven by consumers or the energy industry significant policy and governance interventions will be needed to drive the sustainable heat transformation.<br/>Transport: Following the ‘Road to Zero’ pathway for road transport is unlikely to be disruptive but it is not enough to meet our climate change targets. The stricter targets for phasing out conventional vehicles that will be required will lead to some disruption. Vehicle manufacturers the maintenance and repair sector and the Treasury may all feel the strain.<br/>Electricity: Strategies of the Big 6 energy companies have changed considerably in recent years with varying degrees of disruption to their traditional business model. It remains to be seen whether they will be able to continue to adapt to rapid change – or be overtaken by new entrants.<br/>Construction: To deliver low-carbon building performance will require disruptive changes to the way the construction sector operates. With new-build accounting for less than 1% of the total stock major reductions in energy demand will need to come through retrofit of existing buildings.<br/>The report identifies how policy makers plan for disruptions to existing systems. With the right tools and with a flexible and adaptive approach to policy implementation decision makers can better respond to unexpected consequences and ensure delivery of key policy objectives.
Environmental Audit Committee Inquiry into Hydrogen
Jun 2020
Publication
The Hydrogen Taskforce welcomes the opportunity to submit evidence to the Environmental Audit Committee’s inquiry into Hydrogen. It is the Taskforce’s view that:
You can download the whole document from the Hydrogen Taskforce website here
- Due to its various applications hydrogen is critical for the UK to reach net zero by 2050;
- The UK holds world-class advantages in hydrogen production distribution and application; and
- Other economies are moving ahead in the development of this sector and the UK must respond.
- Development of a cross departmental UK Hydrogen Strategy within UK Government;
- Commit £1bn of capex funding over the next spending review period to hydrogen production storage and distribution projects;
- Develop a financial support scheme for the production of hydrogen in blending industry power and transport;
- Amend Gas Safety Management Regulations (GSMR) to enable hydrogen blending and take the next steps towards 100% hydrogen heating through supporting public trials and mandating 100% hydrogen-ready boilers by 2025; and
- Commit to the support of 100 Hydrogen Refuelling Stations (HRS) by 2025 to support the roll-out of hydrogen transport.
You can download the whole document from the Hydrogen Taskforce website here
Disruptive and Uncertain: Policy Makers’ Perceptions on UK Heat Decarbonisation
May 2020
Publication
<br/>The decarbonisation of heating represents a transformative challenge for many countries. The UK’s net-zero greenhouse gas emissions target requires the removal of fossil fuel combustion from heating in just three decades. A greater understanding of policy processes linked to system transformations is expected to be of value for understanding systemic change; how policy makers perceive policy issues can impact on policy change with knock-on effects for energy system change. This article builds on the literature considering policy maker perceptions and focuses on the issue of UK heat policy. Using qualitative analysis we show that policy makers perceive heat decarbonisation as disruptive technological pathways are seen as deeply uncertain and heat decarbonisation appears to offer policy makers little ‘up-side’. Perceptions are bounded by uncertainty affected by concerns over negative impacts influenced by external influences and relate to ideas of continuity. Further research and evidence on optimal heat decarbonisation and an adaptive approach to governance could support policy makers to deliver policy commensurate with heat decarbonisation. However even with reduced uncertainty and more flexible governance the perceptions of disruption to consumers mean that transformative heat policy may remain unpopular for policy makers potentially putting greenhouse mitigation targets at risk of being missed.
Assessment of Power-to-power Renewable Energy Storage Based on the Smart Integration of Hydrogen and Micro Gas Turbine Technologies
Mar 2022
Publication
Power-to-Power is a process whereby the surplus of renewable power is stored as chemical energy in the form of hydrogen. Hydrogen can be used in situ or transported to the consumption node. When power is needed again hydrogen can be consumed for power generation. Each of these processes incurs energy losses leading to a certain round-trip efficiency (Energy Out/Energy In). Round-trip efficiency is calculated considering the following processes; water electrolysis for hydrogen production compressed liquefied or metal-hydride for hydrogen storage fuel-cell-electric-truck for hydrogen distribution and micro-gas turbine for hydrogen power generation. The maximum achievable round-trip efficiency is of 29% when considering solid oxide electrolysis along with metal hydride storage. This number goes sharply down when using either alkaline or proton exchange membrane electrolyzers 22.2% and 21.8% respectively. Round-trip efficiency is further reduced if considering other storage media such as compressed- or liquefied-H2. However the aim of the paper is to highlight there is still a large margin to increase Power-to-Power round-trip efficiency mainly from the hydrogen production and power generation blocks which could lead to round-trip efficiencies of around 40%e42% in the next decade for Power-to-Power energy storage systems with micro-gas turbines.
National Hydrogen Roadmap: Pathways to an Economically Sustainable Hydrogen Industry in Australia
Apr 2021
Publication
The National Hydrogen Roadmap provides a blueprint for the development of a hydrogen industry in Australia.
Recently there has been a considerable amount of work undertaken (both globally and domestically) seeking to quantify the economic opportunities associated with hydrogen. The National Hydrogen Roadmap takes that analysis a step further by focusing on how those opportunities can be realised.
National Hydrogen Roadmap
The National Hydrogen Roadmap provides a blueprint for the development of a hydrogen industry in Australia.
The primary objective of the Roadmap is to provide a blueprint for the development of a hydrogen industry in Australia. With a number of activities already underway it is designed to help inform the next series of investment amongst various stakeholder groups (e.g. industry government and research) so that the industry can continue to scale in a coordinated manner.
Pathways to an economically sustainable industry
The low emissions hydrogen value chain now consists of a series of mature technologies. While there is considerable scope for further R&D this level of maturity has meant that the narrative has shifted from one of technology development to market activation.
Barriers to market activation stem from a lack of supporting infrastructure and/or the cost of hydrogen supply. However both barriers can be overcome via a series of strategic investments along the value chain from both the private and public sector.
The report shows that while government assistance is needed to kick-start the industry it can become economically sustainable thereafter. This is demonstrated by first assessing the target price of hydrogen needed for it be competitive with other energy carriers and feedstocks. Second the assessment considers the current state of the industry namely the cost and maturity of the underpinning technologies and infrastructure. It then identifies the material cost drivers and consequently the key priorities and areas for investment needed to make hydrogen competitive in each of the identified markets.
The opportunity for hydrogen to compete favourably on a cost basis in local applications such as transport and remote area power systems is within reach based on potential cost reductions to 2025. Further the development of a hydrogen export industry represents a significant opportunity for Australia and a potential 'game changer' for the local industry and the broader energy sector due to associated increases in scale."
You can read the full report on the CSIRO website at this link
Recently there has been a considerable amount of work undertaken (both globally and domestically) seeking to quantify the economic opportunities associated with hydrogen. The National Hydrogen Roadmap takes that analysis a step further by focusing on how those opportunities can be realised.
National Hydrogen Roadmap
The National Hydrogen Roadmap provides a blueprint for the development of a hydrogen industry in Australia.
The primary objective of the Roadmap is to provide a blueprint for the development of a hydrogen industry in Australia. With a number of activities already underway it is designed to help inform the next series of investment amongst various stakeholder groups (e.g. industry government and research) so that the industry can continue to scale in a coordinated manner.
Pathways to an economically sustainable industry
The low emissions hydrogen value chain now consists of a series of mature technologies. While there is considerable scope for further R&D this level of maturity has meant that the narrative has shifted from one of technology development to market activation.
Barriers to market activation stem from a lack of supporting infrastructure and/or the cost of hydrogen supply. However both barriers can be overcome via a series of strategic investments along the value chain from both the private and public sector.
The report shows that while government assistance is needed to kick-start the industry it can become economically sustainable thereafter. This is demonstrated by first assessing the target price of hydrogen needed for it be competitive with other energy carriers and feedstocks. Second the assessment considers the current state of the industry namely the cost and maturity of the underpinning technologies and infrastructure. It then identifies the material cost drivers and consequently the key priorities and areas for investment needed to make hydrogen competitive in each of the identified markets.
The opportunity for hydrogen to compete favourably on a cost basis in local applications such as transport and remote area power systems is within reach based on potential cost reductions to 2025. Further the development of a hydrogen export industry represents a significant opportunity for Australia and a potential 'game changer' for the local industry and the broader energy sector due to associated increases in scale."
You can read the full report on the CSIRO website at this link
Gas Goes Green: Britain's Hydrogen Network Plan Report
Jan 2021
Publication
Britain stands on the cusp of a world-leading hydrogen revolution and one which we are almost uniquely positioned to take advantage of. With an extensive world-leading gas grid huge amounts of offshore wind resource and liquid energy markets there are few other places as well positioned as the UK to lead the international race to build a hydrogen economy. Published as part of Energy Networks Association’s Gas Goes Green programme Britain’s Hydrogen Network Plan will play a vital role in delivering the UK’s ambitions for hydrogen as set out in the Prime Minister’s Ten Point Plan For A Green Industrial Revolution.<br/>This Plan sets out how Britain’s gas network companies will enable 100% hydrogen to be transported for use in different sectors of the UK economy. It also identifies the wider actions needed to provide hydrogen production and storage showing how transitioning the gas networks to hydrogen will allow hydrogen to play a full role in achieving net zero in the hard to decarbonise sectors such as industry heavy transport and domestic heating saving an estimated 40 million tonnes of CO2 emissions every year. All five of Britain’s gas network companies responsible for owning and operating £24bn of critical national energy infrastructure are committing through this Plan to delivering this work. It forms a key part of their ambition to building the world’s first zero carbon gas grid here in the UK.<br/>Britain’s Hydrogen Network Plan is founded on four tenets that will underpin the role of Britain’s gas network infrastructure in a hydrogen economy. These tenets reflect the breadth and scale of the impact that the transformation of our gas networks will have. They will guide how gas network companies ensure people’s safety in a fast moving and changing energy system. They reflect how the companies will maintain security of supply to our homes and businesses as we move away from the natural gas that has been the bedrock of our energy system for half a century. They will support the public’s ability to choose the right technology so households and businesses can choose the low carbon technologies that are best suited to their needs. And they will deliver jobs and investment so the transition of our gas networks has a lasting and enduring economic impact in communities across the country.<br/>As we look to the future the exciting role that hydrogen has to play in delivering a net zero economy is becoming increasingly clear. We look forward to working closely with the customers we serve the Government and the wider energy industry to turn that ambition into reality.
The New Oil? The Geopolitics and International Governance of Hydrogen
Jun 2020
Publication
While most hydrogen research focuses on the technical and cost hurdles to a full-scale hydrogen economy little consideration has been given to the geopolitical drivers and consequences of hydrogen developments. The technologies and infrastructures underpinning a hydrogen economy can take markedly different forms and the choice over which pathway to take is the object of competition between different stakeholders and countries. Over time cross-border maritime trade in hydrogen has the potential to fundamentally redraw the geography of global energy trade create a new class of energy exporters and reshape geopolitical relations and alliances between countries. International governance and investments to scale up hydrogen value chains could reduce the risk of market fragmentation carbon lock-in and intensified geo-economic rivalry.
Just Transition Commission
Mar 2021
Publication
The Just Transition Commission started work in early 2019 with a remit to provide practical and affordable recommendations to Scottish Ministers. This report sets out their view of the key opportunities and challenges for Scotland and recommends practical steps to achieving a just transition<br/><br/>Climate action fairness and opportunity must go together. Taking action to tackle climate change must make Scotland a healthier more prosperous and more equal society whilst restoring its natural environment. We want a Scotland where wellbeing is at the heart of how we measure ourselves and our prosperity. We know that the scars from previous industrial transitions have remained raw for generations. We know that some more recent aspirations for green jobs have not delivered on all the benefits promised for Scottish workers and communities. We need rapid interventions to fully realise the potential (and mitigate the potential injustice) associated with the net-zero transition.
Report on Socio-economic Impact of the FCH -JU Activities
Feb 2016
Publication
The FCH JU has with its industry and research partners worked since 2008 to develop and demonstrate FCH technologies along with development of the various business and environmental cases. It has involved a programme of increasingly ambitious demonstrations projects a consistent approach to research and development actions and a long term policy commitment. Developing the business and environmental cases for FCH technologies has created an increasingly compelling vision appealing to a range of stakeholders: to FCH technology businesses themselves assured by the long term commitment of the FCH JU to end users in terms of cost and operational performance potential and as critically to increasing numbers of policy and decision makers attracted by the substantial socio-economic benefits.
Energy integration – The Covid-19 Crisis and Clean Energy Progress – Analysis Report
Jun 2020
Publication
The Covid-19 pandemic has dealt a massive blow to countries around the world choking economies and transforming daily life for billions of people. This extraordinary disruption has significantly impacted the energy sector with worrying implications for clean energy transitions. Some key clean energy technologies have been encouragingly resilient to the effects of the crisis but so far there is little to suggest that the dramatic structural progress needed to achieve long-term climate and energy goals will happen in the current turmoil. Unprecedented action and leadership from governments companies and other real-world decision makers will be required to put the world more firmly on a sustainable long-term pathway. The energy sector must achieve dramatic sustained emissions reductions through policy investment and innovation measures across all energy sectors and technologies.
Building on Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2020 and other COVID-19 analysis this article takes stock of how the crisis has affected energy sectors and technologies thus far and explores the potential implications for clean energy transitions over the medium and longer term.
Link to Document on IEA Website
Building on Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2020 and other COVID-19 analysis this article takes stock of how the crisis has affected energy sectors and technologies thus far and explores the potential implications for clean energy transitions over the medium and longer term.
Link to Document on IEA Website
Potential Development of Renewable Hydrogen Imports to European Markets until 2030
Mar 2022
Publication
This paper considers potential import routes for low-carbon and renewable hydrogen (H2) to main European markets like Germany. In particular it analyses claims made by Hydrogen Europe and subsequently picked up by the European Commission in its Hydrogen Strategy that there will be 40GW of electrolyser capacity in nearby countries providing hydrogen imports to Europe by 2030. The analysis shows that by 2030 potential demand for H2 could be high enough to initiate some limited international hydrogen trade most likely between European countries initially rather than from outside Europe. Geographically a northern hydrogen cluster around Netherlands and NW Germany will be more significant for hydrogen demand while southern Europe is more likely to have surplus low cost renewable power generation. The paper considers potential H2 exporters to Europe including Ukraine and North African countries (in line with the proposal from Hydrogen Europe) as well as Norway and Russia. (The research pre-dates recent political and military tensions between Russia and Ukraine which are likely to influence future development pathways). The supply cost of hydrogen in 2030 is predicted to be in a reasonably (and perhaps surprisingly) narrow band around €3/kg from various sources and supply chains. The paper concludes that overall while imports of hydrogen to Europe are certainly possible in the longer term there are many challenges to be addressed. This conclusion supports the growing consensus that development of low carbon hydrogen certainly within Europe is likely to start within relatively local hydrogen clusters with some limited bilateral trade.
The research paper can be found on their website
The research paper can be found on their website
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