Policy & Socio-Economics
The EU Green Deal (2022 ed.)
Jan 2023
Publication
In this report we focus on the fundamentals of energy and climate policy as reformulated in the EU Green Deal. The 2022 edition includes updates following the publication of the Fit for 55 Package and the EU Hydrogen and Decarbonised Gas Markets Package. The reader is guided through the landscape of EU climate and energy policy. Starting with the big picture of the foundations of energy and climate policy we then move to discussing in more detail European climate policy security of supply and energy networks. We continue with energy wholesale and retail markets and finish with a closer look at energy innovation. Each chapter is divided into several sections aiming to give the reader a broad overview of the areas of climate and energy policy that are impacted by the EU Green Deal. The references at the end of each section serve as suggestions for further reading on each topic.
Analysis of the Implementation of Functional Hydrogen Assumptions in Poland and Germany
Nov 2022
Publication
The use of hydrogen exists in various sectors in Poland and Germany. Hydrogen can be used in industry transport decarbonisation of the Polish steel industry and as one of the low-emission alternatives to the existing coal applications in this sector. Limiting climate change requires efforts on a global scale from all countries of the world. Significant economic benefits will be realized by stimulating the development of new technologies to deal with climate change. The scenarios show an increasing demand for industrial hydrogen in the future. The key is to replace gray hydrogen with green and to convert industrial processes which will create additional hydrogen demand. The condition for the development of a green hydrogen economy is access to adequate installed capacity in renewable energy. Germany will become the leading market in the era of energy transformation in the coming years. The implementation of the hydrogen assumptions in Poland is possible to a greater extent by the efforts of entrepreneurs
Fuelling the Transition Podcast: Building the UK Hydrogen Backbone
Feb 2022
Publication
In this episode Tony Green Hydrogen Director at National Grid and John Williams Head of Hydrogen Expertise Cluster at AFRYManagement Consulting join us to discuss the challenges in implementing hydrogen. Tony is involved in two exciting hydrogen projects: FutureGrid andProject Union. FutureGrid involves building a facility to create a representative whole-network to trial hydrogen. Project Union will develop a UK hydrogen ‘backbone’ joining together clusters around the country potentially creating a 2000km hydrogen network.
In addition to discussing these projects this episode will explore the following issues:
♦ Managing the transition and challenges in repurposing natural gas pipelines to hydrogen
♦ The potential for blending and de-blending hydrogen
♦ The impact of hydrogen on National Grid’s regulatory approach
♦ How to take the first steps towards a hydrogen wholesale market"
The podcast can be found on their website.
In addition to discussing these projects this episode will explore the following issues:
♦ Managing the transition and challenges in repurposing natural gas pipelines to hydrogen
♦ The potential for blending and de-blending hydrogen
♦ The impact of hydrogen on National Grid’s regulatory approach
♦ How to take the first steps towards a hydrogen wholesale market"
The podcast can be found on their website.
Global Hydrogen Review 2023
Sep 2023
Publication
The Global Hydrogen Review is an annual publication by the International Energy Agency that tracks hydrogen production and demand worldwide as well as progress in critical areas such as infrastructure development trade policy regulation investments and innovation. The report is an output of the Clean Energy Ministerial Hydrogen Initiative and is intended to inform energy sector stakeholders on the status and future prospects of hydrogen while also informing discussions at the Hydrogen Energy Ministerial Meeting organised by Japan. Focusing on hydrogen’s potentially major role in meeting international energy and climate goals the Review aims to help decision makers fine-tune strategies to attract investment and facilitate deployment of hydrogen technologies at the same time as creating demand for hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels. It compares real-world developments with the stated ambitions of government and industry. This year’s report includes a focus on demand creation for low-emission hydrogen. Global hydrogen use is increasing but demand remains so far concentrated in traditional uses in refining and the chemical industry and mostly met by hydrogen produced from unabated fossil fuels. To meet climate ambitions there is an urgent need to switch hydrogen use in existing applications to low-emission hydrogen and to expand use to new applications in heavy industry or long-distance transport.
China's Hydrogen Development Strategy in the Context of Double Carbon Targets
Dec 2022
Publication
As a clean low-carbon efficient and renewable energy source hydrogen has gradually become an important energy carrier to combat climate change and achieve sustainable development in the world. China is now facing the stress of realizing the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals where hydrogen will play a significant role. Against this backdrop to develop China's hydrogen strategy under the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals this paper explores the hydrogen resource endowment in China presents the concepts such as Hydrogen Ethics and the Hu's Hydrogen Line and discusses the status quo and existing advantages in hydrogen production storage transport and utilization in China. Six major obstacles and challenges that China's hydrogen energy industry is facing are pointed out i.e. cost problem inadequate hydrogen infrastructures low energy efficiency mismatching the development progress of renewable energy insufficient market demand shortcomings in technology and imperfect policy system. Finally five policy suggestions for the future development of China's hydrogen energy industry are proposed as follows: (1) make an action plan as a response to the national hydrogen development plan; (2) build an international and domestic double-cycle hydrogen economic system; (3) incorporate hydrogen into the establishment of a clean low-carbon safe and efficient energy system; (4) accelerate the technological innovation to form advanced hydrogen technologies; and (5) construct hydrogen-oriented industrial clusters/parks to expand the hydrogen utilization market. It is concluded that for meeting the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals China should leverage the dual advantages of hydrogen as an energy carrier and an industrial raw material allowing the hydrogen industry to play a synergistic role in ensuring the country's energy security promoting the socio-economic transformation and upgrading and protecting the ecological environment thereby providing a technical option and support for China to achieve the ultimate goal of carbon neutrality.
Cost Minimisation of Renewable Hydrogen in a Dutch Neighbourhood While Meeting European Union Sustainability Targets
Jun 2022
Publication
Decentralised renewable energy production in the form of fuels or electricity can have large scale deployment in future energy systems but the feasibility needs to be assessed. The novelty of this paper is in the design and implementation of a mixed integer linear programming optimisation model to minimise the net present cost of decentralised hydrogen production for different energy demands on neighbourhood urban scale while simultaneously adhering to European Union targets on greenhouse gas emission reductions. The energy system configurations optimised were assumed to possibly consist of a variable number or size of wind turbines solar photovoltaics grey grid electricity usage battery storage electrolyser and hydrogen storage. The demands served are hydrogen for heating and mobility and electricity for the households. A hydrogen residential heating project currently being developed in Hoogeveen The Netherlands served as a case study. Six scenarios were compared each taking one or multiple energy demand services into question. For each scenario the levelised cost of hydrogen was calculated. The lowest levelised cost of hydrogen was found for the combined heating and mobility scenario: 8.36 € kg− 1 for heating and 9.83 € kg− 1 for mobility. The results support potential cost reductions of combined demand patterns of different energy services. A sensitivity analysis showed a strong influence of electrolyser efficiency wind turbine parameters and emission reduction factor on levelised cost. Wind energy was strongly preferred because of the lower cost and the low greenhouse gas emissions compared to solar photovoltaics and grid electricity. Increasing electrolyser efficiency and greenhouse gas emission reduction of the used technologies deserve further research.
A Hybrid Perspective on Energy Transition Pathways: Is Hydrogen the Key for Norway?
Jun 2021
Publication
Hydrogen may play a significant part in sustainable energy transition. This paper discusses the sociotechnical interactions that are driving and hindering development of hydrogen value chains in Norway. The study is based on a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. A multi-level perspective (MLP) is deployed to discuss how exogenous trends and uncertainties interact with processes and strategies in the national energy system and how this influences the transition potential associated with Norwegian hydrogen production. We explore different transition pathways towards a low-emission society in 2050 and find that Norwegian hydrogen production and its deployment for decarbonization of maritime and heavy-duty transport decarbonisation of industry and flexibility services may play a crucial role. Currently the development is at a branching point where national coordination is crucial to unlock the potential. The hybrid approach provides new knowledge on underlying system dynamics and contributes to the discourse on pathways in transition studies.
Hydrogen Net Zero Investment Roadmap: Leading the Way to Net Zero
Apr 2023
Publication
This net zero investment roadmap summarises government’s hydrogen policies and available investment opportunities.
Balancing Electricity Supply and Demand in a Carbon-Neutral Northern Europe
Apr 2023
Publication
This work investigates how to balance the electricity supply and demand in a carbon-neutral northern Europe. Applying a cost-minimizing electricity system model including options to invest in eleven different flexibility measures and cost-efficient combinations of strategies to manage variations were identified. The results of the model were post-processed using a novel method to map the net load before and after flexibility measures were applied to reveal the contribution of each flexibility measure. The net load was mapped in the space spanned by the amplitude duration and number of occurrences. The mapping shows that depending on cost structure flexibility measures contribute to reduce the net load in three different ways; (1) by reducing variations with a long duration but low amplitude (2) by reducing variations with a high amplitude but short duration and low occurrence or (3) by reducing variations with a high amplitude short duration and high occurrence. It was found that cost-efficient variation management was achieved by combining wind and solar power and by combining strategies (1–3) to manage the variations. The cost-efficient combination of strategies depends on electricity system context where electricity trade flexible hydrogen and heat production (1) manage the majority of the variations in regions with good conditions for wind power while stationary batteries (3) were the main contributors in regions with good conditions for solar power.
OIES Podcast - Hydrogen Financing
Jan 2023
Publication
In this Podcast David Ledesma discusses with Stephen Craen Visiting Research Fellow OIES the challenges facing the financing of future hydrogen projects as it is expected that a substantial amount of capital will need to be invested in green hydrogen production to meet the 2050 net zero targets. Based around an ‘Archetype’ world scale hydrogen export project where 1 GW solar power is used to make green hydrogen which is converted to 250000 tpa green ammonia for export with a capital cost in the region of USD 2 billion the podcast discusses how ‘efficient financing’ can make an important contribution to minimising cost and making projects cost competitive. Stephen Craen argues that lenders and investors will look to precedents when assessing the nascent green hydrogen sector and the foremost will be LNG and offshore wind which both represent large-scale technically complex projects. Commercial structures of the green hydrogen business are expected to borrow concepts from offshore wind projects particularly in relation to price but also from LNG where this is relevant such as take-or-pay contracts. In this podcast we discuss the key issues that will need to be addressed to make a green hydrogen export project bankable concluding that commercial debt from either commercial banks or project bonds can help create competition.
The podcast can be found on their website.
The podcast can be found on their website.
2050 No-regret Options and Technology Lock-ins
Jan 2023
Publication
The present study (in the following referred to as study S4) takes a deeper look at the 2050 EU energy system. It builds upon a decarbonisation scenario developed in an earlier study of the METIS 2 project (study S61) which focusses on the EU electricity sector and its interlinkage with the hydrogen and the heat sectors. While study S6 aimed for a cost-optimal dimensioning of the EU power system the present study goes a step further and aims to derive more general conclusions. It sheds light on no-regret options towards the decarbonisation of the 2050 EU energy system potential technology lock-in risks and major drivers of uncertainty like system sensitivity to climate change and commodity prices. The analysis is complemented by an evaluation of the impact of an enhanced representation of hydrogen infrastructures and the associated constraints as these may impact the entire interlinked EU energy system.
Energy Sustainability: A Pragmatic Approach and Illustrations
Mar 2009
Publication
Many factors to be appropriately addressed in moving towards energy sustainability are examined. These include harnessing sustainable energy sources utilizing sustainable energy carriers increasing efficiency reducing environmental impact and improving socioeconomic acceptability. The latter factor includes community involvement and social acceptability economic affordability and equity lifestyles land use and aesthetics. Numerous illustrations demonstrate measures consistent with the approach put forward and options for energy sustainability and the broader objective of sustainability. Energy sustainability is of great importance to overall sustainability given the pervasiveness of energy use its importance in economic development and living standards and its impact on the environment.
Potential Domestic Energy System Vulnerabilities from Major Exports of Green Hydrogen: A Case Study of Australia
Aug 2023
Publication
Australia has clear aspirations to become a major global exporter of hydrogen as a replacement for fossil fuels and as part of the drive to reduce CO2 emissions as set out in the National Hydrogen Strategy released in 2019 jointly by the federal and state governments. In 2021 the Australian Energy Market Operator specified a grid forecast scenario for the first time entitled “hydrogen superpower”. Not only does Australia hope to capitalise on the emerging demand for zero-carbon hydrogen in places like Japan and South Korea by establishing a new export industry but it also needs to mitigate the built-in carbon risk of its export revenue from coal and LNG as major customers such as Japan and South Korea move to decarbonise their energy systems. This places hydrogen at the nexus of energy climate change mitigation and economic growth with implications for energy security. Much of the published literature on this topic concentrates on the details of what being a major hydrogen exporter will look like and what steps will need to be taken to achieve it. However there appears to be a gap in the study of the implications for Australia’s domestic energy system in terms of energy security and export economic vulnerability. The objective of this paper is to develop a conceptual framework for the implications of becoming a major hydrogen exporter on Australia’s energy system. Various green hydrogen export scenarios for Australia were compared and the most recent and comprehensive was selected as the basis for further examination for domestic energy system impacts. In this scenario 248.5 GW of new renewable electricity generation capacity was estimated to be required by 2050 to produce the additional 867 TWh required for an electrolyser output of 2088 PJ of green hydrogen for export which will comprise 55.9% of Australia’s total electricity demand at that time. The characteristics of comparative export-oriented resources and their interactions with the domestic economy and energy system are then examined through the lens of the resource curse hypothesis and the LNG and aluminium industries. These existing resource export frameworks are reviewed for applicability of specific factors to export-oriented green hydrogen production with applicable factors then compiled into a novel conceptual framework for exporter domestic implications from large-scale exports of green hydrogen. The green hydrogen export superpower (2050) scenario is then quantitatively assessed using the established indicators for energy exporter vulnerability and domestic energy security comparing it to Australia’s 2019 energy exports profile. This assessment finds that in almost all factors exporter vulnerability is reduced and domestic energy security is enhanced by the transition from fossil fuel exports to green hydrogen with the exception of an increase in exposure of the domestic energy system to international market forces.
Repurposing Pipelines for Hydrogen: Legal and Policy Considerations
Nov 2022
Publication
As the world looks to implement the Energy Transition repurposing existing fossil fuel infrastructure to produce or distribute “clean” energy will be critical. The most promising is using natural gas pipelines for moving hydrogen. This is the cheapest and fastest method of transport and reducing the cost of transporting hydrogen is a key step in making it economically viable. However while there are technical challenges the greater challenge is in the legal arena. This paper seeks to outline the numerous legal — treaty statutory and contractual — and regulatory obstacles to repurposing natural gas pipelines for hydrogen transport. Gas pipelines exist in a complex microclimate of international public and private law and domestic law and contracts. Ownership is often layered and tangled; financing doubly so; and myriad state interests compound the private interests including national security concerns energy supply imperatives and geopolitical balance. State aid — investment subsidies and tax breaks — may encumber the project with additional legal obligations. And the contracts that control the development of a pipeline project may inject further legal complexity such as dispute mediation procedures and fora and applicable law. This paper seeks to map all the likely areas of future conflict or difficulty so that work on developing the requisite legal regime and remedies to permit use of natural gas pipelines for hydrogen transport can begin now. For policy and lawmakers as well as the private sector evaluating these known unknowns is a good starting point for reconsidering legislation regulation contracts and project risk in preparation for the future probability of hydrogen pipelines.
Assessing the Balance Between Direct Electrification and the Use of Decarbonised Gases in the 2050 EU Energy System
Jan 2023
Publication
If Europe is to meet its 2050 decarbonisation objectives a change of paradigm needs to materialise. The energy sector cannot be understood any more as the sum of independent silos consisting of different energy vectors. Indeed a large number of technologies that are essential to meeting our decarbonisation targets are linking systems and markets currently being planned and operated without fully considering the potential benefits of adopting a holistic approach. If this situation is to persist large-scale sub-optimalities are likely to emerge if the planning and operations of the different components of the energy system will not be able to capture synergies and interdependencies between energy vectors and markets. Interlinkages between systems are appearing between all vectors both at the planning and operation levels. In the case of hydrogen these links are especially important as hydrogen technologies are linking the electricity methane and heat sectors (via electrolysis and hydrogen turbines repurposing of gas assets and hydrogen boilers respectively). Sector integration can allow to capture benefits both in terms of planning and operations:- The production of electrolytic hydrogen poses important challenges in terms of planning the deployment of renewable energy (RES) and electrolyser capacities in a way that ensures that the overall carbon emissions decrease in an effective and cost-efficient manner. Furthermore key questions related to the benefits of co-locating renewable capacities electrolysers and hydrogen demand centres can only be explored if a holistic perspective is adopted. Finally synergies can also appear if planning decisions are taken jointly between the electricity hydrogen and methane sectors as the optimal set of hydrogen infrastructure projects strongly depends on the ability to source electrolysers (link with the electricity sector) and on the possibility to repurpose part of the current infrastructure (link with the methane sector)- Similarly operational considerations also advocate for an integrated approach as electrolysers can provide important flexibility services to the electricity sector if provided with appropriate price signals. These considerations provide the motivation for this study which aims at performing a detailed examination of planning decisions and operational management of a 2050 power system with a focus on comparing different decarbonisation options for the provision of heat of different temperature levels.
Insights into Decision-making for Offshore Green Hydrogen Infrastructure Developments
Apr 2023
Publication
Green hydrogen is a key element that has the potential to play a critical role in the global pursuit of a resilient and sustainable future. However like other energy production methods hydrogen comes with challenges including high costs and safety concerns across its entire value chain. To overcome these low-cost productions are required along with a promised market. Offshore renewables have an enormous potential to facilitate green hydrogen production on a large scale. Their plummeting cost technological advances and rising cost of carbon pave a pathway where green hydrogen can be cost-competitive against fossil-fuel-based hydrogen. Offshore industries including oil and gas aquaculture and shipping are looking for cleaner energy solutions to decarbonize their systems/operations and can serve as a substantial market. Offshore industrial nexus moreover can assist the production storage and transmission of green hydrogen through infrastructure sharing and logistical support. The development of offshore green hydrogen production facilities is in its infancy and requires a deeper insight into the key elements that govern decision-making during their life-cycle. This includes the parameters that reflect the performance of hydrogen technology with technical socio-political financial and environmental considerations. Therefore this study provides critical insight into the influential factors discovered through a comprehensive analysis that governs the development of an offshore green hydrogen system. Insights are also fed into the requirements for modelling and analysis of these factors considering the synergy of hydrogen production with the offshore industries coastal hydrogen hub and onshore energy demand. The results of this critical review will assist the researchers and developers in establishing and executing an effective framework for offshore site selection in largely uncertain and hazardous ocean environments. Overall the study will facilitate the stakeholders and researchers in developing decision-making tools to ensure sustainable and safe offshore green hydrogen facilities.
Current Development Status, Policy Support and Promotion Path of China’s Green Hydrogen Industries under the Target of Carbon Emission Peaking and Carbon Neutrality
Jun 2023
Publication
The green hydrogen industry highly efficient and safe is endowed with flexible production and low carbon emissions. It is conducive to building a low-carbon efficient and clean energy structure optimizing the energy industry system and promoting the strategic transformation of energy development and enhancing energy security. In order to achieve carbon emission peaking by 2030 and neutrality by 2060 (dual carbon goals) China is vigorously promoting the green hydrogen industry. Based on an analysis of the green hydrogen industry policies of the U.S. the EU and Japan this paper explores supporting policies issued by Chinese central and local authorities and examines the inherent advantages of China’s green hydrogen industry. After investigating and analyzing the basis for the development of the green hydrogen industry in China we conclude that China has enormous potential including abundant renewable energy resources as well as commercialization experience with renewable energy robust infrastructure and technological innovation capacity demand for large-scale applications of green hydrogen in traditional industries etc. Despite this China’s green hydrogen industry is still in its early stage and has encountered bottlenecks in its development including a lack of clarity on the strategic role and position of the green hydrogen industry low competitiveness of green hydrogen production heavy reliance on imports of PEMs perfluorosulfonic acid resins (PFSR) and other core components the development dilemma of the industry chain lack of installed capacity for green hydrogen production and complicated administrative permission etc. This article therefore proposes that an appropriate development road-map and integrated administration supervision systems including safety supervision will systematically promote the green hydrogen industry. Enhancing the core technology and equipment of green hydrogen and improving the green hydrogen industry chain will be an adequate way to reduce dependence on foreign technologies lowering the price of green hydrogen products through the scale effect and thus expanding the scope of application of green hydrogen. Financial support mechanisms such as providing tax breaks and project subsidies will encourage enterprises to carry out innovative technological research on and invest in the green hydrogen industry.
The Role of Hydrogen and Batteries in Delivering Net Zero in the UK by 2050
Apr 2023
Publication
This report presents an analysis of how hydrogen and battery technologies are likely to be utilised in different sectors within the UK including transportation manufacturing the built environment and power. In particular the report compares the use of hydrogen and battery technology across these sectors. In addition it evaluates where these technologies will be in competition where one technology will dominate and where a combination of the two may be used. This sector analysis draws on DNV’s knowledge and experience within both the battery and hydrogen industries along with a review of studies available in the public domain. The analysis has been incorporated into DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook model an integrated system-dynamics simulation model covering the energy system which provides an independent view of the energy outlook from now until 2050. The modelling which includes data on costs demand supply policy population and economic indicators enables the non-linear interdependencies between different parameters to be considered so that decisions made in one sector influence the decision made in another.
A Techno-economic Analysis of Cross-regional Renewable Hydrogen Supply Routes in China
Jun 2023
Publication
The cross-regional renewable hydrogen supply is significant for China to resolve the uneven distribution of renewable energy and decarbonize the transportation sector. Yet the economic comparison of various hydrogen supply routes remains obscure. This paper conducts a techno-economic analysis on six hydrogen supply routes for hydrogen refueling stations including gas-hydrogen tube-trailer gas-hydrogen pipeline liquid-hydrogen truck natural gas pipeline MeOH truck and NH3 truck. Furthermore the impacts of three critical factors are examined including electrolyzer selection transportation distance and electricity price. The results indicate that with a transport distance of 2000 km the natural gas pipeline route offers the lowest cost while the gas-hydrogen tube-trailer route is not economically feasible. The gas-hydrogen pipeline route shows outstanding cost competitiveness between 200 and 2000 km while it is greatly influenced by the utilization rate. The liquid-hydrogen truck route demonstrates great potential with the electricity price decreasing. This study may provide guidance for the development of the cross-regional renewable hydrogen supply for hydrogen refueling stations in China.
Cost of Long-Distance Energy Transmission by Different Carriers
Nov 2021
Publication
This paper compares the relative cost of long-distance large-scale energy transmission by electricity and by gaseous and liquid carriers (e-fuels). The results indicate that the cost of electrical transmission per delivered MWh can be up to eight times higher than for hydrogen pipelines about eleven times higher than for natural gas pipelines and twenty to fifty times higher than for liquid fuels pipelines. These differences generally hold for shorter distances as well. The higher cost of electrical transmission is primarily due to lower carrying capacity (MW per line) of electrical transmission lines compared to the energy carrying capacity of the pipelines for gaseous and liquid fuels. The differences in the cost of transmission are important but often unrecognized and should be considered as a significant cost component in the analysis of various renewable energy production distribution and utilization scenarios.
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