Policy & Socio-Economics

This study investigates the global allocation of hydrogen and synfuels in order to achieve the well below 2 ◦C preferably 1.5 ◦C target set in the Paris Agreement. For this purpose TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM) a global energy system model is used. In order to investigate global hydrogen and synfuel flows cost potential curves are aggregated and implemented into TIAM as well as demand technologies for the end use sectors. Furthermore hydrogen and synfuel trades are established using liquid hydrogen transport (LH2 ) and both new and existing technologies for synfuels are implemented. To represent a wide range of possible future events four different scenarios are considered with different characteristics of climate and security of supply policies. The results show that in the case of climate policy the renewable energies need tremendous expansion. The final energy consumption is shifting towards the direct use of electricity while certain demand technologies (e.g. aviation and international shipping) require hydrogen and synfuels for full decarbonization. Due to different security of supply policies the global allocation of hydrogen and synfuel production and exports is shifting while the 1.5 ◦C target remains feasible in the different climate policy scenarios. Considering climate policy Middle East Asia is the preferred region for hydrogen export. For synfuel production several regions are competitive including Middle East Asia Mexico Africa South America and Australia. In the case of security of supply policies Middle East Asia is sharing the export volume with Africa while only minor changes can be seen in the synfuel supply.

This paper analyses which sources of low-carbon hydrogen for the Northwest European market are most competitive taking into account costs of local production conversion and transport. Production costs of electrolysis are strongly affected by local renewable electricity costs and capacity factors. Transport costs are the lowest by pipelines for distances under 10000 km with costs linearly increasing with distance. For larger distances transport as ammonia is more efficient with less relation to distance despite higher conversion costs. The most competitive low-carbon hydrogen supply to the Northwest European market appears to be local Steam Methane Reforming with Carbon Capture and Storage when international gas prices return back to historical levels. When gas prices however remain high then import from Morocco with electrolysis directly connected to offshore wind generation is found to be the most competitive source of low-carbon hydrogen. These conclusions are robust for various assumptions on costs and capacity factors.

Hydrogen is indispensable to decarbonise European industry and reach the EU’s 2030 climate targets and 2050 climate neutrality. It is one of the key technologies of Europe’s Net Zero Industry Act. By scaling up its production we will reduce the use of fossil fuels in European industries and serve the needs of hard-to-electrify sectors.

Although energy-intensive industries are often seen as ‘hard-to-decarbonise’ net-zero megaprojects for industrial clusters promise to improve the technical and economic feasibility of hydrogen fuel switching and carbon capture and storage (CCS). Mobilising insights from the megaproject literature this paper analyses the dynamics of an ambitious first-of-kind net-zero megaproject in the Humber industrial cluster in the United Kingdom which includes CCS and hydrogen infrastructure systems industrial fuel switching CO2 capture green and blue hydrogen production and hydrogen storage. To analyse the dynamics of this emerging megaproject the article uses a socio-technical system lens to focus on developments in technology actors and institutions. Synthesising multiple megaproject literature insights the paper develops a comprehensive framework that addresses both aggregate (‘outside-in’) developments and the endogenous (‘inside-out’) experiences and activities regarding three specific challenges: technical system integration actor coordination and institutional alignment. Drawing on an original dataset involving expert interviews (N = 46) site visits (N = 7) and document analysis the ‘outside-in’ analysis finds that the Humber megaproject has progressed rapidly from outline visions to specific technical designs enacted by new coalitions and driven by strengthening policy targets and financial support schemes. The complementary ‘inside-out’ analysis however also finds 12 alignment challenges that can delay or derail materialisation of the plans. While policies are essential aggregate drivers institutional misalignments presently also prevent project-actors from finalising design and investment decisions. Our analysis also finds important tensions between the project's high-pace delivery focus (to meet government targets) and allowing sufficient time for pilot projects learning-by-doing and design iterations.

In this Podcast David Ledesma discusses with Stephen Craen Visiting Research Fellow OIES the challenges facing the financing of future hydrogen projects as it is expected that a substantial amount of capital will need to be invested in green hydrogen production to meet the 2050 net zero targets. Based around an ‘Archetype’ world scale hydrogen export project where 1 GW solar power is used to make green hydrogen which is converted to 250000 tpa green ammonia for export with a capital cost in the region of USD 2 billion the podcast discusses how ‘efficient financing’ can make an important contribution to minimising cost and making projects cost competitive. Stephen Craen argues that lenders and investors will look to precedents when assessing the nascent green hydrogen sector and the foremost will be LNG and offshore wind which both represent large-scale technically complex projects. Commercial structures of the green hydrogen business are expected to borrow concepts from offshore wind projects particularly in relation to price but also from LNG where this is relevant such as take-or-pay contracts. In this podcast we discuss the key issues that will need to be addressed to make a green hydrogen export project bankable concluding that commercial debt from either commercial banks or project bonds can help create competition.

The podcast can be found on their website.

The transition to clean electricity generation is a crucial focus for achieving the current objectives of economy decarbonization. The Balearic Archipelago faces significant environmental economic and social challenges in shifting from a predominantly fossil fuel-based economy to one based on renewable sources. This study proposes implementing a renewable energy mix and decarbonizing the economy of the Balearic Islands by 2040. The proposed system involves an entirely renewable generation system with interconnections between the four Balearic islands and the Spanish mainland grid via a 650 MW submarine cable. This flexible electrical exchange can cover approximately 35% of the peak demand of 1900 MW. The scenario comprises a 6 GWp solar photovoltaic system a wind system of under 1.2 GWp and a 600 MW biomass system as generation sub-systems. A vanadium redox flow battery sub-system with a storage capacity of approximately 21 GWh and 2.5 GWp power is available to ensure system manageability. This system’s levelized electricity cost (LCOE) is around 13.75 cEUR/kWh. The design also incorporates hydrogen as an alternative for difficult-to-electrify uses achieving effective decarbonization of all final energy uses. A production of slightly over 5 × 104 tH2 per year is required with 1.7 GW of electrolyzer power using excess electricity and water resources. The system enables a significant level of economy decarbonization although it requires substantial investments in both generation sources and storage.

This current article discusses the technoeconomics (TE) of hydrogen generation transportation compression and storage in the Australian context. The TE analysis is important and a prerequisite for investment decisions. This study selected the Australian context due to its huge potential in green hydrogen but the modelling is applicable to other parts of the world adjusting the price of electricity and other utilities. The hydrogen generation using the most mature alkaline electrolysis (AEL) technique was selected in the current study. The results show that increasing temperature from 50 to 90 ◦C and decreasing pressure from 13 to 5 bar help improve electrolyser performance though pressure has a minor effect. The selected range for performance parameters was based on the fundamental behaviour of water electrolysers supported with literature. The levelised cost of hydrogen (LCH2 ) was calculated for generation compression transportation and storage. However the majority of the LCH2 was for generation which was calculated based on CAPEX OPEX capital recovery factor hydrogen production rate and capacity factor. The LCH2 in 2023 was calculated to be 9.6 USD/kgH2 using a base-case solar electricity price of 65–38 USD/MWh. This LCH2 is expected to decrease to 6.5 and 3.4 USD/kgH2 by 2030 and 2040 respectively. The current LCH2 using wind energy was calculated to be 1.9 USD/kgH2 lower than that of solar-based electricity. The LCH2 using standalone wind electricity was calculated to be USD 5.3 and USD 2.9 in 2030 and 2040 respectively. The LCH2 predicted using a solar and wind mix (SWM) was estimated to be USD 3.2 compared to USD 9.6 and USD 7.7 using standalone solar and wind. The LCH2 under the best case was predicted to be USD 3.9 and USD 2.1 compared to USD 6.5 and USD 3.4 under base-case solar PV in 2030 and 2040 respectively. The best case SWM offers 33% lower LCH2 in 2023 which leads to 37% 39% and 42% lower LCH2 in 2030 2040 and 2050 respectively. The current results are overpredicted especially compared with CSIRO Australia due to the higher assumption of the renewable electricity price. Currently over two-thirds of the cost for the LCH2 is due to the price of electricity (i.e. wind and solar). Modelling suggests an overall reduction in the capital cost of AEL plants by about 50% in the 2030s. Due to the lower capacity factor (effective energy generation over maximum output) of renewable energy especially for solar plants a combined wind- and solar-based electrolysis plant was recommended which can increase the capacity factor by at least 33%. Results also suggest that besides generation at least an additional 1.5 USD/kgH2 for compression transportation and storage is required.

China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of hydrogen. The country has adopted a domestic strategy that targets significant growth in hydrogen consumption and production. Given the importance of hydrogen in the low-carbon energy transition it is critical to understand China’s hydrogen policies and their implementation as well as the extent to which these contribute to the country’s low-carbon goals.<br/>Existing research has focused on understanding policies and regulations in China and their implications for the country’s hydrogen prospects. This study aims to improve our understanding of central-government initiatives and look at how China’s hydrogen policies are implemented at the local level. The paper examines the three cities of Zhangjiakou (in China’s renewable-rich Hebei province) Datong (in the country’s coal-heartland of Shanxi province) and Chengdu which is rich in hydropower and natural gas. To be sure the three cities analysed in this paper do not cover all regional plans and initiatives but they offer a useful window into local hydrogen policy implementation. They also illustrate the major challenges facing green hydrogen as it moves beyond the narrow highly subsidized field of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). Indeed costs as well as water land availability and technology continue to be constraints.<br/>The hydrogen policies and road maps reviewed in this paper offer numerous targets—often setting quantitative goals for FCVs hydrogen refuelling stations hydrogen supply chain revenue and new hydrogen technology companies—aligning with the view that hydrogen development is currently more of an industrial policy than a decarbonisation strategy. Indeed hydrogen’s potential to decarbonise sectors such as manufacturing and chemicals is of secondary importance if mentioned at all. But as the cities analysed here view hydrogen as part of their industrial programmes economic development and climate strategies support is likely to remain significant even as the specific incentive schemes will likely evolve.<br/>Given this local hydrogen development model rising demand for hydrogen in China could ultimately increase rather than decrease CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels in the short run. At the same time even though the central government’s hydrogen targets (as laid out in its 2022 policy documents) seem relatively conservative Chinese cities’ appetite for new sources of growth and the ability to fund various business models are worth watching.

The cross-regional renewable hydrogen supply is significant for China to resolve the uneven distribution of renewable energy and decarbonize the transportation sector. Yet the economic comparison of various hydrogen supply routes remains obscure. This paper conducts a techno-economic analysis on six hydrogen supply routes for hydrogen refueling stations including gas-hydrogen tube-trailer gas-hydrogen pipeline liquid-hydrogen truck natural gas pipeline MeOH truck and NH3 truck. Furthermore the impacts of three critical factors are examined including electrolyzer selection transportation distance and electricity price. The results indicate that with a transport distance of 2000 km the natural gas pipeline route offers the lowest cost while the gas-hydrogen tube-trailer route is not economically feasible. The gas-hydrogen pipeline route shows outstanding cost competitiveness between 200 and 2000 km while it is greatly influenced by the utilization rate. The liquid-hydrogen truck route demonstrates great potential with the electricity price decreasing. This study may provide guidance for the development of the cross-regional renewable hydrogen supply for hydrogen refueling stations in China.

Europe’s electricity transmission expansion suffers many delays despite its significance for integrating renewable electricity. A hydrogen network reusing the existing gas network could not only help to supply the demand for low-emission fuels but could also balance variations in wind and solar energies across the continent and thus avoid power grid expansion. Our investigation varies the allowed expansion of electricity and hydrogen grids in net-zero CO2 scenarios for a sector-coupled European energy system capturing transmission bottlenecks renewable supply and demand variability and pipeline retrofitting and geological storage potentials. We find that a hydrogen network connecting regions with low-cost and abundant renewable potentials to demand centers electrofuel production and cavern storage sites reduces system costs by up to 26 bnV/a (3.4%). Although expanding both networks together can achieve the largest cost reductions by 9.9% the expansion of neither is essential for a net-zero system as long as higher costs can be accepted and flexibility options allow managing transmission bottlenecks.