Policy & Socio-Economics

Hydrogen is fast becoming a new international “super fuel” to accelerate global climate change ambitions. This paper has two inter-weaving themes. Contextually it focuses on the potential impact of the EU’s new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on fossil fuel-generated as opposed to green hydrogen imports. The CBAM as a transnational carbon adjustment mechanism has the potential to impact international trade in energy. It seeks both a level playing field between imports and EU internal markets (subject to ambitious EU climate change policies) and to encourage emissions reduction laggards through its “carbon diplomacy”. Countries without a price on carbon will be charged for embodied carbon in their supply chains when they export to the EU. Empirically we focus on two hydrogen export/import case studies: Australia as a non-EU state with ambitions to export hydrogen and Germany as an EU Member State reliant on energy imports. Energy security is central to energy trade debates but needs to be conceptualized beyond supply and demand economics to include geopolitics just transitions and the impacts of border carbon taxes and EU carbon diplomacy. Accordingly we apply and further develop a seven-dimension energy security-justice framework to the examples of brown blue and green hydrogen export/import hydrogen operations with varying carbon-intensity supply chains in Australia and Germany. Applying the framework we identify potential impact—risks and opportunities—associated with identified brown blue and green hydrogen export/import projects in the two countries. This research contributes to the emerging fields of international hydrogen trade supply chains and international carbon diplomacy and develops a potentially useful seven-dimension energy security-justice framework for energy researchers and policy analysts.

Global climate change concerns have pushed international governmental actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by adopting cleaner technologies hoping to transition to a more sustainable society. The hydrogen economy is one potential long-term option for enabling deep decarbonization for the future energy landscape. Progress towards an operating hydrogen economy is discouragingly slow despite global efforts to accelerate it. There are major mismatches between the present situation surrounding the hydrogen economy and previous proposed milestones that are far from being reached. The overall aim of this study is to understand whether there has been significant real progress in the achievement of a hydrogen economy or whether the current interest is overly exaggerated (hype). This study uses bibliometric analysis and content analysis to historically map the hydrogen economy’s development from 1972 to 2020 by quantifying and analyzing three sets of interconnected data. Findings indicate that interest in the hydrogen economy has significantly progressed over the past five decades based on the growing numbers of academic publications media coverage and projects. However various endogenous and exogenous factors have influenced the development of the hydrogen economy and created hype at different points in time. The consolidated results explore the changing trends and how specific events or actors have influenced the development of the hydrogen economy with their agendas the emergence of hype cycles and the expectations of a future hydrogen economy.

The 21st century is characterized not only by large-scale transformations but also by the speed with which they occur. Transformations—political economic social technological environmental and legal-in synergy have always been a catalyst for reactions in society. The field of energy supply like many others is extremely susceptible to the external influence of such factors. To a large extent this applies to remote (especially from the position of energy supply) regions. The authors outline an approach to justifying the development of the Arctic energy infrastructure through an analysis of the demand for the amount of energy consumed and energy sources taking into account global trends. The methodology is based on scenario modeling of technological demand. It is based on a study of the specific needs of consumers available technologies and identified risks. The paper proposes development scenarios and presents a model that takes them into account. Modeling results show that in all scenarios up to 50% of the energy balance in 2035 will take gas but the role of carbon-free energy sources will increase. The mathematical model allowed forecasting the demand for energy types by certain types of consumers which makes it possible to determine the vector of development and stimulation of certain types of resources for energy production in the Arctic. The model enables considering not only the growth but also the decline in demand for certain types of consumers under different scenarios. In addition authors’ forecasts through further modernization of the energy sector in the Arctic region can contribute to the creation of prerequisites that will be stimulating and profitable for the growth of investment in sustainable energy sources to supply consumers. The scientific significance of the work lies in the application of a consistent hybrid modeling approach to forecasting demand for energy resources in the Arctic region. The results of the study are useful in drafting a scenario of regional development taking into account the Sustainable Development Goals as well as identifying areas of technology and energy infrastructure stimulation.

Renewable green fuels (RGF) such as hydrogen are the global energy future. Air pollution is compounded with climate change as the emissions driving both development problems come largely from the same source of fossil fuel burning. As an energy exporter Australian energy export dominates the total energy production and the RGF has become central to the current proposal of Australian government to reach net zero emission. The hydrogen production from solar panels only on 3% of Australia's land area could compensate 10 times of Germany's non-electricity energy consumption. In the unique geographic position Australia's RGF export attracts significant costs for long distance onboard storage and shipping. While the cost reduction of RGF production relies on technological advancement which needs a long time the storage and shipping costs must be minimised for Australia to remain competitive in the global energy market. The present review concentrates on Australian export pathways of lifecycles of liquid renewable green fuels including renewable liquified hydrogen (LH2) liquified methane (LCH4) ammonia (NH3) and methanol (CH3OH) as liquid RGF have the advantages of adopting the existing infrastructure. This review compares the advantages and disadvantages of discussed renewable energy carriers. It is found that the cost of LH2 pathway can be acceptable for shipping distance of up to 7000 km (Asian countries such as Japan) but ammonia (NH3) or methanol (CH3OH) pathways may be more cost effective for shipping distance above 7000 km for European counties such as Germany. These observations suggest the proper fuel forms to fulfill the requirements to different customers and hence will highlight Australia's position as one of major exporters of renewable energy in the future. Detailed techno-economic analysis is worth to be done for supplying more quantitative results.

This edition of the Global Gas Report covers two very turbulent years in the global gas industry and the wider global energy markets. The Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns with a brief period of excess supply and low prices gave way to tight energy markets extreme price volatility and a compounding geopolitical challenge to energy security. At the time of writing the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has been affecting the flows of gas and has put Europe on a quest to diversify its energy and gas supply that is now opening a new paradigm in the energy industry. This report comes at a time when the situation for global commodity and gas markets is in a state of rapid change and the strategic path forwards for the gas industry and energy policy-makers is continually developing. One thing is clear this is a critical and decisive moment for the gas industry. How it navigates the way through this crisis and charts a path forward will shape its long-term success and the role that it will play in the energy transition and beyond. This is the moment for the gas industry to demonstrate that gas can deliver a sustainable and secure energy future for all and that natural gas and a portfolio of decarbonized low- and zero-carbon gases are key to an achievable energy transition. This year’s report assesses key gas market trends from 2020 and 2021 including Covid-19 outcomes tightness of supply price volatility investments and the upward reversal in the global emissions trend. It then turns to the main topic on the global energy agenda – security – and considers key variables impacting it from industry and policy perspectives as well as considering possible paths to reinforce it. Finally the report looks at the main decarbonization pathways for gas supply as they progressively develop to make gas itself a low or zero-carbon fuel for the future. This report seeks to deliver insights about the global gas sector and to inform its stakeholders partners and importantly global decision-makers about the state of play today and possibilities for the future. It concludes with key insights on how sustainability security and competitiveness can help to deliver a sustainable future in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement and the UN Sustainable Development Agenda.

The flexible coupling of sectors in the energy system for example via battery electric vehicles electric heating or electric fuel production can contribute significantly to the integration of variable renewable electricity generation. For the implementation of the energy system transformation however there are numerous options for the design of sector coupling each of which is accompanied by different infrastructure requirements. This paper presents the extension of the REMix energy system modelling framework to include the gas sector and its application for investigating the cost-optimal design of sector coupling in Germany's energy system. Considering an integrated optimisation of all relevant technologies in their capacities and hourly use a path to a climate-neutral system in 2050 is analysed. We show that the different options for flexible sector coupling are all needed and perform different functions. Even though flexible electrolytic production of hydrogen takes on a very dominant role in 2050 it does not displace other technologies. Hydrogen also plays a central role in the seasonal balancing of generation and demand. Thus large-scale underground storage is part of the optimal system in addition to a hydrogen transport network. These results provide valuable guidance for the implementation of the energy system transformation in Germany.

The present paper dwells on the role of green hydrogen in the transition towards climateneutral economies and reviews the central challenges for its emancipation as an economically viable source of energy. The study shows that countries with a substantial share of renewables in the energy mix advanced natural gas pipeline infrastructure and an advanced level of technological and economic development have a comparative advantage for the wider utilization of hydrogen in their national energy systems. The central conclusion this review paper is that a green hydrogen rollout in the developed and oil-exporting developing and emerging countries is not a risk for the rest of the world in terms of the increasing technological disparities and conservation of underdevelopment and concomitant socio-economic problems of the Global South. The targets anchored in Paris Agreement but even more in the EU Green Deal and the European Hydrogen Strategy will necessitate a substantial rollout of RESs in developing countries and especially in the countries of the African Union because of the prioritization of the African continent within the energy cooperation frameworks of the EU Green Deal and the EU Hydrogen Strategy. Hence the green hydrogen rollout will bridge the energy transition between Europe and Africa on the one hand and climate and development targets on the other.

The aim of this paper is to analyze the factors affecting hydrogen and Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies (“CCS”) policies taking into consideration Fossil Fuel Consumption Oil Reserves the Debt/GDP Ratio the Trilemma Index and other variables with respect to OECD countries. STATA 17 was used for the analysis. The results confirm the hypothesis that countries with high fossil fuel consumption and oil reserves are investing in blue hydrogen and CCS towards a “zero-carbon-emission” perspective. Moreover countries with a good Debt/GDP ratio act most favorably to green policies by raising their Public Debt because Foreign Direct Investments are negatively correlated with those kinds of policies. Future research should exploit Green Finance policy decision criteria on green and blue hydrogen.

This study uses an online quasi-experiment with a national sample from Australia to evaluate public acceptance of hydrogen exports. It explores the complex communications environment that messaging about hydrogen exports is typically encountered in. We find that acceptance of green hydrogen exports is significantly higher than blue or brown hydrogen exports and acceptance of blue hydrogen exports higher than brown hydrogen exports. Additionally results show economic-framed benefit messages are associated with lesser public acceptance when encountered in communication contexts that outline differently-focused environmental downsides (competing contexts) but not same-focused economic downsides (conflicting contexts). In contrast environment-framed benefit messages are associated with lesser public acceptance when presented in communication contexts that outline same-focused environmental downsides (conflicting contexts) but not differentlyfocused economic downsides (competing contexts). Overall the study indicates message framing can impact acceptance of hydrogen exports and that organisations should consider the informational context within which their communications will be received.

Hydrogen will play a pivotal role in achieving an affordable clean and prosperous economy. Hydrogen allows for cost-efficient bulk transport and storage of renewable energy and can decarbonise energy use in all sectors.

The European Union together with North Africa Ukraine and other neighbouring countries have a unique opportunity to realise a green hydrogen system. Europe including Ukraine has good renewable energy resources while North Africa has outstanding and abundant resources. Europe can re-use its gas infrastructure with interconnections to North-Africa and other countries to transport and store hydrogen. And Europe has a globally leading industry for clean hydrogen production especially in electrolyser manufacturing.

If the European Union in close cooperation with its neighbouring countries wants to build on these unique assets and create a world leading industry for renewable hydrogen production the time to act is now. Dedicated and integrated multi GW green hydrogen production plants will thereby unlock the vast renewable energy potential.

We the European hydrogen industry are committed to maintaining a strong and world-leading electrolyser industry and market and to producing renewable hydrogen at equal and eventually lower cost than low-carbon (blue) hydrogen. A prerequisite is that a 2x40 GW electrolyser market in the European Union and its neighbouring countries (e.g. North Africa and Ukraine) will develop as soon as possible.

A roadmap for 40 GW electrolyser capacity in the EU by 2030 shows a 6 GW captive market (hydrogen production at the demand location) and 34 GW hydrogen market (hydrogen production near the resource). A roadmap for 40 GW electrolyser capacity in North Africa and Ukraine by 2030 includes 7.5 GW hydrogen production for the domestic market and a 32.5 GW hydrogen production capacity for export.

If a 2x40 GW electrolyser market in 2030 is realised alongside the required additional renewable energy capacity renewable hydrogen will become cost competitive with fossil (grey) hydrogen. GW-scale electrolysers at wind and solar hydrogen production sites will produce renewable hydrogen cost competitively with low-carbon hydrogen production (1.5-2.0 €/kg) in 2025 and with grey hydrogen (1.0-1.5 €/kg) in 2030.

By realizing 2x40 GW electrolyser capacity producing green hydrogen about 82 million ton CO₂  emissions per year could be avoided in the EU. The total investments in electrolyser capacity will be 25-30 billion Euro creating 140000- 170000 jobs in manufacturing and maintenance of 2x40 GW electrolysers.

The industry needs the European Union and its member states to design create and facilitate a hydrogen market infrastructure and economy. Crucial is the design and realisation of new unique and long-lasting mutual co-operation mechanisms on political societal and economic levels between the EU and North Africa Ukraine and other neighbouring countries.

The unique opportunity for the EU and its neighbouring countries to develop a green hydrogen economy will contribute to economic growth the creation of jobs and a sustainable affordable and fair energy system. Building on this position Europe and its neighbours can become world market leaders for green hydrogen production technologies.