Policy & Socio-Economics
The Hydrogen Economy can Reduce Costs of Climate Change Mitigation by up to 22%
May 2024
Publication
In response to the urgent need to mitigate climate change via net-zero targets many nations are renewing their interest in clean hydrogen as a net-zero energy carrier. Although clean hydrogen can be directly used in various sectors for deep decarbonization the relatively low energy density and high production costs have raised doubts as to whether clean hydrogen development is worthwhile. Here we improve on the GCAM model by including a more comprehensive and detailed representation of clean hydrogen production distribution and demand in all sectors of the global economy and simulate 25 scenarios to explore the costeffectiveness of integrating clean hydrogen into the global energy system. We show that due to costly technical obstacles clean hydrogen can only provide 3%–9% of the 2050 global final energy use. Nevertheless clean hydrogen deployment can reduce overall energy decarbonization costs by 15%–22% mainly via powering ‘‘hard-to-electrify’’ sectors that would otherwise face high decarbonization expenditures. Our work provides practical references for cost-effective clean hydrogen planning.
Market-based Asset Valuation of Hydrogen Geological Storage
Jul 2023
Publication
Because of hydrogen's low energy density hydrogen storage is a critical component of the hydrogen economy particularly when large-scale and flexible hydrogen utilization is required. There is a sense of urgency to develop hydrogen geological storage projects to support large-scale yet flexible hydrogen utilization. This study aims to answer questions not yet resolved in the research literature discussing the valuation of hydrogen geological storage options for commercial development. This study establishes a net present value (NPV) evaluation framework for geological hydrogen storage that integrates the updated techno-economic analysis and market-based operations. The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the related finance theories are applied to determine the risk-adjusted discount rate in building the NPV evaluation framework. The NPV framework has been applied to two geological hydrogen storage projects a single-turn storage serving downstream transportation seasonal demand versus a multiturn storage as part of an integrated renewables-based hydrogen energy system providing peak electric load. From the NPV framework both projects have positive NPVs $46 560 632 and $12 457 546 respectively and International Rate of Return (IRR) values which are higher than the costs of capital. The NPV framework is also applied to the sensitivity analysis and shows that the hydrogen price spread between withdrawal and injection prices site development and well costs are the top three factors that impact both NPV and IRR the most for both projects. The established NPV framework can be used for project risk management by discovering the key cost drivers for the storage assets.
An Overview of Challenges for the Future of Hydrogen
Oct 2023
Publication
Hydrogen’s wide availability and versatile production methods establish it as a primary green energy source driving substantial interest among the public industry and governments due to its future fuel potential. Notable investment is directed toward hydrogen research and material innovation for transmission storage fuel cells and sensors. Ensuring safe and dependable hydrogen facilities is paramount given the challenges in accident control. Addressing material compatibility issues within hydrogen systems remains a critical focus. Challenges roadmaps and scenarios steer long-term planning and technology outlooks. Strategic visions align actions and policies encompassing societal and ecological dimensions. The confluence of hydrogen’s promise with material progress holds the prospect of reshaping our energy landscape sustainably. Forming collective future perspectives to foresee this emerging technology’s potential benefits is valuable. Our review article comprehensively explores the forthcoming challenges in hydrogen technology. We extensively examine the challenges and opportunities associated with hydrogen production incorporating CO2 capture technology. Furthermore the interaction of materials and composites with hydrogen particularly in the context of hydrogen transmission pipeline and infrastructure are discussed to understand the interplay between materials and hydrogen dynamics. Additionally the exploration extends to the embrittlement phenomena during storage and transmission coupled with a comprehensive examination of the advancements and hurdles intrinsic to hydrogen fuel cells. Finally our exploration encompasses addressing hydrogen safety from an industrial perspective. By illuminating these dimensions our article provides a panoramic view of the evolving hydrogen landscape.
The Role of Hydrogen for a Greenhouse Gas-neutral Germany by 2045
May 2023
Publication
This paper aims to provide a holistic analysis of the role of hydrogen for achieving greenhouse gas neutrality in Germany. For that purpose we apply an integrated energy system model which includes all demand sectors of the German energy system and optimizes the transformation pathway from today's energy system to a future cost-optimal energy system. We show that 412 TWh of hydrogen are needed in the year 2045 mostly in the industry and transport sector. Particularly the use of about 267 TWh of hydrogen in industry is essential as there are no cost-effective alternatives for the required emission reduction in the chemical industry or in steel production. Furthermore we illustrate that the German hydrogen supply in the year 2045 requires both an expansion of domestic electrolyzer capacity to 71 GWH2 and hydrogen imports from other European countries and Northern Africa of about 196 TWh. Moreover flexible operation of electrolyzers is cost-optimal and crucial for balancing the intermittent nature of volatile renewable energy sources. Additionally a conducted sensitivity analysis shows that full domestic hydrogen supply in Germany is possible but requires an electrolyzer capacity of 111 GWH2.
Natural Hydrogen in the Energy Transition: Fundamentals, Promise, and Enigmas
Oct 2023
Publication
Beyond its role as an energy vector a growing number of natural hydrogen sources and reservoirs are being discovered all over the globe which could represent a clean energy source. Although the hydrogen amounts in reservoirs are uncertain they could be vast and they could help decarbonize energy-intensive economic sectors and facilitate the energy transition. Natural hydrogen is mainly produced through a geochemical process known as serpentinization which involves the reaction of water with low-silica ferrous minerals. In favorable locations the hydrogen produced can become trapped by impermeable rocks on its way to the atmosphere forming a reservoir. The safe exploitation of numerous natural hydrogen reservoirs seems feasible with current technology and several demonstration plants are being commissioned. Natural hydrogen may show variable composition and require custom separation purification storage and distribution facilities depending on the location and intended use. By investing in research in the mid-term more hydrogen sources could become exploitable and geochemical processes could be artificially stimulated in new locations. In the long term it may be possible to leverage or engineer the interplay between microorganisms and geological substrates to obtain hydrogen and other chemicals in a sustainable manner.
Synergistic Integration of Hydrogen Energy Economy with UK’s Sustainable Development Goals: A Holistic Approach to Enhancing Safety and Risk Mitigation
Oct 2023
Publication
Hydrogen is gaining prominence as a sustainable energy source in the UK aligning with the country’s commitment to advancing sustainable development across diverse sectors. However a rigorous examination of the interplay between the hydrogen economy and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is imperative. This study addresses this imperative by comprehensively assessing the risks associated with hydrogen production storage transportation and utilization. The overarching aim is to establish a robust framework that ensures the secure deployment and operation of hydrogen-based technologies within the UK’s sustainable development trajectory. Considering the unique characteristics of the UK’s energy landscape infrastructure and policy framework this paper presents practical and viable recommendations to facilitate the safe and effective integration of hydrogen energy into the UK’s SDGs. To facilitate sophisticated decision making it proposes using an advanced Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) tool incorporating regret theory and a 2-tuple spherical linguistic environment. This tool enables a nuanced decision-making process yielding actionable insights. The analysis reveals that Incident Reporting and Learning Robust Regulatory Framework Safety Standards and Codes are pivotal safety factors. At the same time Clean Energy Access Climate Action and Industry Innovation and Infrastructure are identified as the most influential SDGs. This information provides valuable guidance for policymakers industry stakeholders and regulators. It empowers them to make well-informed strategic decisions and prioritize actions that bolster safety and sustainable development as the UK transitions towards a hydrogen-based energy system. Moreover the findings underscore the varying degrees of prominence among different SDGs. Notably SDG 13 (Climate Action) exhibits relatively lower overall distinction at 0.0066 and a Relation value of 0.0512 albeit with a substantial impact. In contrast SDG 7 (Clean Energy Access) and SDG 9 (Industry Innovation and Infrastructure) demonstrate moderate prominence levels (0.0559 and 0.0498 respectively) each with its unique influence emphasizing their critical roles in the UK’s pursuit of a sustainable hydrogen-based energy future.
Policy Design for Diffusing Hydrogen Economy and Its Impact on the Japanese Economy for Carbon Neutrality by 2050: Analysis Using the E3ME-FTT Model
Nov 2023
Publication
To achieve carbon neutrality in Japan by 2050 renewable energy needs to be used as the main energy source. Based on the constraints of various renewable energies the importance of hydrogen cannot be ignored. This study aimed to investigate the diffusion of hydrogen demand technologies in various sectors and used projections and assumptions to investigate the hydrogen supply side. By performing simulations with the E3ME-FTT model and comparing various policy scenarios with the reference scenario the economic and environmental impacts of the policy scenarios for hydrogen diffusion were analyzed. Moreover the impact of realizing carbon neutrality by 2050 on the Japanese economy was evaluated. Our results revealed that large-scale decarbonization via hydrogen diffusion is possible (90% decrease of CO2 emissions in 2050 compared to the reference) without the loss of economic activity. Additionally investments in new hydrogen-based and other low-carbon technologies in the power sector freight road transport and iron and steel industry can improve the gross domestic product (1.6% increase in 2050 compared to the reference) as they invoke economic activity and require additional employment (0.6% increase in 2050 compared to the reference). Most of the employment gains are related to decarbonizing the power sector and scaling up the hydrogen supply sector while a lot of job losses can be expected in the mining and fossil fuel industries.
Price Promises, Trust Deficits and Energy Justice: Public Perceptions of Hydrogen Homes
Oct 2023
Publication
In an era characterised by political instability economic uncertainty and mounting environmental pressures hydrogen fuel is being positioned as a critical piece of the global energy security and clean energy agenda. The policy push is noteworthy in the United Kingdom where the government is targeting industrial decarbonisation via hydrogen while exploring a potential role for hydrogen-fuelled home appliances. Despite the imperative to secure social acceptance for accelerating the diffusion of low-carbon energy technologies public perceptions of hydrogen homes remain largely underexplored by the researcher community. In response this analysis draws on extensive focus group data to understand the multi-dimensional nature of social acceptance in the context of the domestic hydrogen transition. Through an integrated mixed-methods multigroup analysis the study demonstrates that socio-political and market acceptance are strongly interlinked owing to a trust deficit in the government and energy industry coupled to underlying dissatisfaction with energy markets. At the community level hydrogen homes are perceived as a potentially positive mechanism for industrial regeneration and local economic development. Households consider short-term disruptive impacts to be tolerable provided temporary disconnection from the gas grid does not exceed three days. However to strengthen social acceptance clearer communication is needed regarding the spatial dynamics and equity implications of the transition. The analysis concludes that existing trust deficits will need to be overcome which entails fulfilling not only a ‘price promise’ on the cost of hydrogen appliances but also enacting a ‘price pledge’ on energy bills. These deliverables are fundamental to securing social acceptance for hydrogen homes.
Hydrogen Towards Sustainable Transition: A Review of Production, Economic, Environmental Impact and Scaling Factors
Sep 2023
Publication
Currently meeting the global energy demand is largely dependent on fossil fuels such as natural gas coal and oil. Fossil fuels represent a danger to the Earth’s environment and its biological systems. The utilisation of these fuels results in a rise in atmospheric CO2 levels which in turn triggers global warming and adverse changes in the climate. Furthermore these represent finite energy resources that will eventually deplete. There is a pressing need to identify and harness renewable energy sources as a replacement for fossil fuels in the near future. This shift is expected to have a minimal environmental impact and would contribute to ensuring energy security. Hydrogen is considered a highly desirable fuel option with the potential to substitute depleting hydrocarbon resources. This concise review explores diverse methods of renewable hydrogen production with a primary focus on solar wind geothermal and mainly water-splitting techniques such as electrolysis thermolysis photolysis and biomass-related processes. It addresses their limitations and key challenges hampering the global hydrogen economy’s growth including clean value chain creation storage transportation production costs standards and investment risks. The study concludes with research recommendations to enhance production efficiencies and policy suggestions for governments to mitigate investment risks while scaling up the hydrogen economy.
Heat Pumps for Germany—Additional Pressure on the Supply–Demand Equilibrium and How to Cope with Hydrogen
Jun 2024
Publication
In the context of the German Energiewende the current government intends to install six million heat pumps by 2030. Replacing gas heating by power has significant implications on the infrastructure. One of the biggest advantages of using gas is the existing storage portfolio. It has not been clarified yet how power demand should be structured on an annual level—especially since power storage is already a problem and solar power is widely promoted to fuel heat pumps despite having an inverse profile. In this article three different solutions namely hydrogen batteries and carbon capture and storage are discussed with respect to resources energy and financial demand. It shows that relying solely on batteries or hydrogen is not solving the structuring problem. A combination of all existing technologies (including fossil fuels) is required to structure the newly generated electricity demand
Identifying Social Aspect Related to the Hydrogen Economy: Review, Synthesis, and Research Perspectives
Oct 2023
Publication
Energy transition will reshape the power sector and hydrogen is a key energy carrier that could contribute to energy security. The inclusion of sustainability criteria is crucial for the adequate design/deployment of resilient hydrogen networks. While cost and environmental metrics are commonly included in hydrogen models social aspects are rarely considered. This paper aims to identify the social criteria related to the hydrogen economy by using a systematic hybrid literature review. The main contribution is the identification of twelve social aspects which are described ranked and discussed. “Accessibility” “Information” “H2 markets” and “Acceptability” are now emerging as the main themes of hydrogen-related social research. Identified gaps are e.g. lack of the definition of the value of H2 for society insufficient research for “socio-political” aspects (e.g. geopolitics wellbeing) scarce application of social lifecycle assessment and the low amount of works with a focus on social practices and cultural issues.
Future Energy Scenarios 2019
Jul 2019
Publication
Decarbonising energy is fundamental in the transition towards a sustainable future. Our Future Energy Scenarios aim to stimulate debate to inform the decisions that will help move us towards achieving carbon reduction targets and ultimately shape the energy system of the future.
Hydrogen Production, Storage, Utilisation and Environmental Impacts: A Review
Oct 2021
Publication
Dihydrogen (H2) commonly named ‘hydrogen’ is increasingly recognised as a clean and reliable energy vector for decarbonisation and defossilisation by various sectors. The global hydrogen demand is projected to increase from 70 million tonnes in 2019 to 120 million tonnes by 2024. Hydrogen development should also meet the seventh goal of ‘affordable and clean energy’ of the United Nations. Here we review hydrogen production and life cycle analysis hydrogen geological storage and hydrogen utilisation. Hydrogen is produced by water electrolysis steam methane reforming methane pyrolysis and coal gasification. We compare the environmental impact of hydrogen production routes by life cycle analysis. Hydrogen is used in power systems transportation hydrocarbon and ammonia production and metallugical industries. Overall combining electrolysis-generated hydrogen with hydrogen storage in underground porous media such as geological reservoirs and salt caverns is well suited for shifting excess of-peak energy to meet dispatchable on-peak demand.
Hydrogen in the Strategies of the European Union Member States
Jan 2021
Publication
Energy and environmental challenges are two key issues related to the sustainable development of the Earth. Fossil fuels (oil coal and natural gas) still supply more than 85% of world energy consumption. Several nations around the globe are striving to provide access to clean and sustainable energy by 2030 (Hostettler et al. 2015). When the Paris Agreement entered into force in 2016 many countries have recently announced serious commitments to significantly reduce their carbon dioxide emissions promising to achieve “net zero” by 2050. he main goal is to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels (IEA 2021). his requires a total transformation of the energy systems that underpin our economies. In the case of renewable energy technology deployment hydrogen may provide a complementary solution due to its flexibility as an energy carrier and storage medium. The European Union (EU) a signatory to the Paris Agreement demonstrated interest in hydrogen as an invaluable raw material in considerably reducing CO2 emissions. Hydrogen inthe EU energy mix is estimated to increase from the current level (less than 2%) to 13–14% in 2050 (EC 2018).
Fuelling the Transition Podcast: Using Hydrogen to Achieve Net-zero
Jan 2021
Publication
In order to achieve the EU’s target of 55% carbon reduction by 2030 hydrogen will have to make a key contribution to the energy mix. With many applications in industrial heat mobility power and chemical refineries hydrogen can be used to decarbonise where electrification is not possible. Equinor is a broad energy company with 21000 employees developing oil gas wind and solar energy in more than 30 countries worldwide. Equinor have been at the forefront of promoting hydrogen projects in Europe and developing low-carbon hydrogen solutions. In this episode Johan Leuraers Chief Consultant - Policy and Regulatory Affairs at Equinor and John Williams Head of Hydrogen Expertise Cluster at AFRY Management Consulting join us to discuss the main barriers to the uptake of hydrogen and the next steps to kick-start the hydrogen economy.
The podcast can be found on their website.
The podcast can be found on their website.
Decarbonisation of Heat and the Role of ‘Green Gas’ in the United Kingdom
May 2018
Publication
This paper looks at the possible role of ‘green gas’ in the decarbonisation of heat in the United Kingdom. The option is under active discussion at the moment because of the UK’s rigorous carbon reduction targets and the growing realisation that there are problems with the ‘default’ option of electrifying heat. Green gas appears to be technically and economically feasible. However as the paper discusses there are major practical and policy obstacles which make it unlikely that the government will commit itself to developing ‘green gas’ in the foreseeable future.
Future Energy Scenarios 2018
Jul 2018
Publication
Welcome to our Future Energy Scenarios. These scenarios which stimulate debate and help inform the decisions that will shape our energy future have never been more important – especially when you consider the extent to which the energy landscape is being transformed.
Can the Hydrogen Economy Concept be the Solution to the Future Energy Crisis?
Feb 2022
Publication
The Hydrogen Economy concept is being proposed as a means of reducing and eventually decarbonising the world’s energy use. It looks to hydrogen as being a replacement for methane (natural gas) and generally as a way of removing all fossil fuels from the energy supply. The concept however has at least four flaws as follows: (1) hydrogen has significantly different properties to methane; (2) hydrogen has properties that create significant hazards; (3) hydrogen has a very small initiation (activation) energy; and (4) liquid hydrogen cannot readily replace liquefied natural gas (LNG). Hydrogen’s hazards will prevent it from being accepted in a societal sense. To the question ‘Can the Hydrogen Economy concept be the solution to the future energy crisis?’ the answer is ‘no’. Hydrogen has and will have a role in world energy but that role will be limited to industry. For the future we need an advanced electric economy.
Hydrogen from Offshore Wind: Investor Perspective on the Profitability of a Hybrid System Including for Curtailment
Mar 2020
Publication
Accommodating renewables on the electricity grid may hinder development opportunities for offshore wind farms (OWFs) as they begin to experience significant curtailment or constraint. However there is potential to combine investment in OWFs with Power-to-Gas (PtG) converting electricity to hydrogen via electrolysis for an alternative/complementary revenue. Using historic wind speed and simulated system marginal costs data this work models the electricity generated and potential revenues of a 504 MW OWF. Three configurations are analysed; (1) all electricity is sold to the grid (2) all electricity is converted to hydrogen and sold and (3) a hybrid system where power is converted to hydrogen when curtailment occurs and/or when the system marginal cost is low with the effect of curtailment analysed in each scenario. These represent the status quo a potential future configuration and an innovative business model respectively. The willingness of an investor to build PtG are determined by changes to the net present value (NPV) of a project. Results suggest that configuration (1) is most profitable and that curtailment mitigation alone is not sufficient to secure investment in PtG. By acting as an artificial floor in the electricity price a hybrid configuration (3) is promising and increases NPV for all hydrogen values greater than €4.2/kgH2. Hybrid system attractiveness increases with curtailment only if the hydrogen value is significantly above the levelised cost of €3.77/kgH2. In order for an investor to choose to pursue configuration (2) the offshore wind farm would have to anticipate 8.5% curtailment and be able to receive €4.5/kgH2 or 25% curtailment and receive €4/kgH2. The capital costs and discount rates are the most sensitive parameters and ambitious combinations of technology improvements could produce a levelised cost of €3/kgH2.
Circular Economy for the Energy System as a Leverage for Low-carbon Transition: Long-Ter, Analysis of the Case of the South-East Region of France
Mar 2024
Publication
The circular economy is a decisive strategy for reconciling economic development and the environment. In France the CE was introduced into the law in 2015 with the objective of closing the loop. The legislation also delegates energy policy towards the French regions by granting them the jurisdiction to directly plan the energy–climate issues on their territory and to develop local energy resources. Thereby the SUD PACA region has redefined its objectives and targeted carbon neutrality and the transition to a CE by 2050. To study this transition we developed a TIMESPACA optimization model. The results show that following a CE perspective to develop a local energy system could contribute to reducing CO2 emissions by 50% in final energy consumption and reaching almost free electricity production. To obtain greater reductions the development of the regional energy systems should follow a careful policy design favoring the transition to low energy-consuming behavior and the strategical allocation of resources across the different sectors. Biomethane should be allocated to the buildings and industrial sector while hydrogen should be deployed for buses and freight transport vehicles.
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