Australia
Supporting Hydrogen Development in Australia Short Film
Jan 2021
Publication
This short film promotes Geoscience Australia's online and publicly accessible hydrogen data products. The film steps through the functionality of GA's Australian Hydrogen Opportunities Tool (AusH2) and describes the upcoming Hydrogen Economic Fairways Tool which has been created through a collaborative effort with Monash University.
Room Temperature Metal Hydrides for Stationary and Heat Storage Applications: A Review
Apr 2021
Publication
Hydrogen has been long known to provide a solution toward clean energy systems. With this notion many efforts have been made to find new ways of storing hydrogen. As a result decades of studies has led to a wide range of hydrides that can store hydrogen in a solid form. Applications of these solid-state hydrides are well-suited to stationary applications. However the main challenge arises in making the selection of the Metal Hydrides (MH) that are best suited to meet application requirements. Herein we discuss the current state-of-art in controlling the properties of room temperature (RT) hydrides suitable for stationary application and their long term behavior in addition to initial activation their limitations and emerging trends to design better storage materials. The hydrogen storage properties and synthesis methods to alter the properties of these MH are discussed including the emerging approach of high-entropy alloys. In addition the integration of intermetallic hydrides in vessels their operation with fuel cells and their use as thermal storage is reviewed.
Process Reconfiguration and Intensification: An Emerging Opportunity Enabling Efficient Carbon Capture and Low-cost Blue Hydrogen Production
Mar 2023
Publication
Low-carbon hydrogen can play a significant role in decarbonizing the world. Hydrogen is currently mainly produced from fossil sources requiring additional CO2 capture to decarbonize which energy intense and costly. In a recent Green Energy & Environment paper Cheng and Di et al. proposed a novel integration process referred to as SECLRHC to generate high-purity H2 by in-situ separation of H2 and CO without using any additional separation unit. Theoretically the proposed process can essentially achieve the separation of C and H in gaseous fuel via a reconfigured reaction process and thus attaining high-purity hydrogen of ∼99% as well as good carbon and hydrogen utilization rates and economic feasibility. It displays an optimistic prospect that industrial decarbonization is not necessarily expensive as long as a suitable CCS measure can be integrated into the industrial manufacturing process.
Contribution to Net Zero Emissions of Integrating Hydrogen Production in Wastewater Treatment Plants
Jul 2023
Publication
The reliability of renewable hydrogen supply for off-take applications is critical to the future sustainable energy economy. Integrated water electrolysis can be deployed at distributed municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) creating opportunity for reduction in carbon emissions through direct and indirect use of the electrolysis output. A novel energy shifting process where the co-produced oxygen is compressed and stored to enhance the utilisation of intermittent renewable electricity is analysed. The hydrogen produced can be used in local fuel cell electric buses to replace incumbent diesel buses for public transport. However quantifying the extent of carbon emission reduction of this conceptual integrated system is key. In this study the integration of hydrogen production at a case study WWTP of 26000 EP capacity and using the hydrogen in buses was compared with two conventional systems: the base case of a WWTP with grid electricity consumption offset by solar PV and the community’s independent use of diesel buses for transport and the non-integrated configuration with hydrogen produced at the bus refuelling location operated independently of the WWTP. The system response was analysed using a Microsoft Excel simulation model with hourly time steps over a 12-month time frame. The model included a control scheme for the reliable supply of hydrogen for public transport and oxygen to the WWTP and considered expected reductions in carbon intensity of the national grid level of solar PV curtailment electrolyser efficiency and size of the solar PV system. Results showed that by 2031 when Australia’s national electricity is forecast to achieve a carbon intensity of less than 0.186 kg CO2-e/kWh integrating water electrolysis at a municipal WWTP for producing hydrogen for use in local hydrogen buses produced less carbon emissions than continuing to use diesel buses and offsetting emissions by exporting renewable electricity to the grid. By 2034 an annual reduction of 390 t–CO2–e is expected after changing to the integrated configuration. Considering electrolyser efficiency improvements and curtailment of renewable electricity the reduction increases to 872.8 t–CO2–e.
Insights into Decision-making for Offshore Green Hydrogen Infrastructure Developments
Apr 2023
Publication
Green hydrogen is a key element that has the potential to play a critical role in the global pursuit of a resilient and sustainable future. However like other energy production methods hydrogen comes with challenges including high costs and safety concerns across its entire value chain. To overcome these low-cost productions are required along with a promised market. Offshore renewables have an enormous potential to facilitate green hydrogen production on a large scale. Their plummeting cost technological advances and rising cost of carbon pave a pathway where green hydrogen can be cost-competitive against fossil-fuel-based hydrogen. Offshore industries including oil and gas aquaculture and shipping are looking for cleaner energy solutions to decarbonize their systems/operations and can serve as a substantial market. Offshore industrial nexus moreover can assist the production storage and transmission of green hydrogen through infrastructure sharing and logistical support. The development of offshore green hydrogen production facilities is in its infancy and requires a deeper insight into the key elements that govern decision-making during their life-cycle. This includes the parameters that reflect the performance of hydrogen technology with technical socio-political financial and environmental considerations. Therefore this study provides critical insight into the influential factors discovered through a comprehensive analysis that governs the development of an offshore green hydrogen system. Insights are also fed into the requirements for modelling and analysis of these factors considering the synergy of hydrogen production with the offshore industries coastal hydrogen hub and onshore energy demand. The results of this critical review will assist the researchers and developers in establishing and executing an effective framework for offshore site selection in largely uncertain and hazardous ocean environments. Overall the study will facilitate the stakeholders and researchers in developing decision-making tools to ensure sustainable and safe offshore green hydrogen facilities.
Technoeconomic Analysis for Green Hydrogen in Terms of Production, Compression, Transportation and Storage Considering the Australian Perspective
Jul 2023
Publication
This current article discusses the technoeconomics (TE) of hydrogen generation transportation compression and storage in the Australian context. The TE analysis is important and a prerequisite for investment decisions. This study selected the Australian context due to its huge potential in green hydrogen but the modelling is applicable to other parts of the world adjusting the price of electricity and other utilities. The hydrogen generation using the most mature alkaline electrolysis (AEL) technique was selected in the current study. The results show that increasing temperature from 50 to 90 ◦C and decreasing pressure from 13 to 5 bar help improve electrolyser performance though pressure has a minor effect. The selected range for performance parameters was based on the fundamental behaviour of water electrolysers supported with literature. The levelised cost of hydrogen (LCH2 ) was calculated for generation compression transportation and storage. However the majority of the LCH2 was for generation which was calculated based on CAPEX OPEX capital recovery factor hydrogen production rate and capacity factor. The LCH2 in 2023 was calculated to be 9.6 USD/kgH2 using a base-case solar electricity price of 65–38 USD/MWh. This LCH2 is expected to decrease to 6.5 and 3.4 USD/kgH2 by 2030 and 2040 respectively. The current LCH2 using wind energy was calculated to be 1.9 USD/kgH2 lower than that of solar-based electricity. The LCH2 using standalone wind electricity was calculated to be USD 5.3 and USD 2.9 in 2030 and 2040 respectively. The LCH2 predicted using a solar and wind mix (SWM) was estimated to be USD 3.2 compared to USD 9.6 and USD 7.7 using standalone solar and wind. The LCH2 under the best case was predicted to be USD 3.9 and USD 2.1 compared to USD 6.5 and USD 3.4 under base-case solar PV in 2030 and 2040 respectively. The best case SWM offers 33% lower LCH2 in 2023 which leads to 37% 39% and 42% lower LCH2 in 2030 2040 and 2050 respectively. The current results are overpredicted especially compared with CSIRO Australia due to the higher assumption of the renewable electricity price. Currently over two-thirds of the cost for the LCH2 is due to the price of electricity (i.e. wind and solar). Modelling suggests an overall reduction in the capital cost of AEL plants by about 50% in the 2030s. Due to the lower capacity factor (effective energy generation over maximum output) of renewable energy especially for solar plants a combined wind- and solar-based electrolysis plant was recommended which can increase the capacity factor by at least 33%. Results also suggest that besides generation at least an additional 1.5 USD/kgH2 for compression transportation and storage is required.
Energy and Environmental Costs in Transitioning to Zero and Low Emission Trucks for the Australian Truck Fleet: An Industry Perspective
May 2024
Publication
Modernising Australia’s old truck fleet and adopting a more stringent standard to reduce emissions and air pollutants is a primary objective for the Australian truck sector. Various strategies worldwide have been introduced to cut emissions and pollutants in the truck sector such as a low-emission strategy supported by strict diesel standards and a zero-emission strategy to shift to battery-electric or hydrogen trucks. The paper focuses on emissions and local air pollutants of trucks under various transition scenarios at both the tailpipe and the wider supply chain including domestic power generation and hydrogen production. In contrast for diesel we focus on tailpipe outputs following fuel standards in Australia given diesel is imported other than in some limited refineries. We compare and recommend actions that government and truck operators may take in the near to longer term in transitioning to cleaner energy. We tested a number of scenarios using a decision support system incorporating all the latest information on costs and emissions for all truck classes using diesel electric or hydrogen. A key finding from our scenario tests is that the current electricity mix has high carbon emissions and air pollutants due to fossil fuel-fired sources for power generation. Without improvement in using renewable energy sources in the future transitioning to electric trucks implies more carbon emissions and air pollutants in the atmosphere from power plants even though electric trucks generate zero tailpipe emissions. The main motivation for switching to zero-emission trucks is energy cost savings. We urge the government to decide on a clear roadmap for the truck sector before the sector is in a position to take action to shift to low or zero-emission trucks without totally relying on the likely reduction of emission intensity in electricity and renewable energy production.
Key Considerations for Evaluating Underground Hydrogen Storage (UHS) Potential in Five Contrasting Australian Basins
Apr 2024
Publication
Hydrogen gas can provide baseload energy as society decarbonizes through the energy transition. Underground Hydrogen Storage (UHS) will be secure convenient and scalable to accommodate excess hydrogen production or compensate temporary shortfalls in energy supply. Hydrogen is a gas under all viable subsurface conditions so is invasive mobile and low-density. Methane and CO2 are also stored underground but storage parameters differ for each affecting the balance of geological storage risks. UHS in Australia is most likely to utilise conventional sedimentary reservoir rocks bound by conventional trapping closures. Hydrogen energy density will affect the competitiveness of UHS against purpose-built surface storage or solution-mined salt cavities. This study presents an overview of key considerations when screening for UHS opportunities and evaluates them for five Australian sedimentary basins. A threshold storage depth mapped across them reveals that the most prospective UHS basins will have to function as integrated energy fluid resource systems.
Optimal Battery and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Sizing in Heavy-haul Locomotives
Jul 2023
Publication
Global supply chains must be decarbonised as part of meeting climate targets set by the United Nations and world leaders. Rail networks are vital infrastructure in passenger and freight transport however have not received the same push for decarbonisation as road transport. In this investigation we used real world data from locomotives operating on seven rail corridors to identify optimal battery capacity and hydrogen fuel cell (HFC) power in hybrid systems. We found that the required battery capacity is dependent on both the available regenerative braking energy and on the capacity required to buffer surpluses and deficits from the HFC. The optimal system for each corridor was identified however it was found that one 3.6 MWh battery and 860 kW HFC system could service six of the seven corridors. The optimal systems presented in this work suggest an average of around 5 h of battery storage for the HFC power which is larger than the 2 h previously reported in literature. This may indicate a gap between purely theoretical works that use only route topography and speed and those that employ real world locomotive data.
High Surface Area Carbon Nitride Nanotubes for Improved Hydrogen Storage: A Grinding and Solution Mixing Approach
Jul 2025
Publication
This study examines the structural chemical and hydrogen storage properties of graphitic carbon nitride (gC3N4) nanotubes synthesized via a novel grinding-solution-synthesis (GSS) method which involve two consecutive precursor mixing processes: grinding and solution mixing. The impact of grinding duration on morphology surface area and hydrogen storage capacity was analyzed. X-ray diffraction (XRD) confirmed characteristic (100) and (002) peaks at ~13.1◦ and 28.0◦ respectively. Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy identified tri-s-triazine heterocycles and hydrogen-bonded amino groups with a new peak at 1650 cm− 1 suggesting structural modifications. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) confirmed elemental composition with minor bonding variations. Nitrogen adsorption/desorption analyses showed that the 30-min ground sample (B1G30) had the highest specific surface area (321 m2 g-1) and pore volume (1.07 cm3 /g) while prolonged grinding (60–90 min) caused nanotube degradation reducing these properties. Scanning and transmission electron microscopy (SEM/TEM) confirmed nanotubular morphology with decreasing diameters and increasing structural collapse at longer grinding durations. Hydrogen storage tests revealed B1G30 exhibited the highest capacity (0.81 wt% at 3.7 MPa) decreasing with extended grinding (B1G60: 0.79 wt% B1G90: 0.75 wt%) due to structural collapse. Extrapolated data suggested B1G30 could reach ~4.0 wt% at 10 MPa. These findings underscore the importance of nanotube integrity in optimizing hydrogen adsorption and highlight g-C3N4 nanotubes’ potential for hydrogen storage applications. This GSS technique presents a cost-effective method for industrial-scale fabrication of high-surface-area g-C3N4 nanotubes enabling their large-scale use in energy storage carbon capture photocatalysis and other applications.
Hydrogen 4.0: A Cyber–Physical System for Renewable Hydrogen Energy Plants
May 2024
Publication
The demand for green hydrogen as an energy carrier is projected to exceed 350 million tons per year by 2050 driven by the need for sustainable distribution and storage of energy generated from sources. Despite its potential hydrogen production currently faces challenges related to cost efficiency compliance monitoring and safety. This work proposes Hydrogen 4.0 a cyber–physical approach that leverages Industry 4.0 technologies—including smart sensing analytics and the Internet of Things (IoT)—to address these issues in hydrogen energy plants. Such an approach has the potential to enhance efficiency safety and compliance through real-time data analysis predictive maintenance and optimised resource allocation ultimately facilitating the adoption of renewable green hydrogen. The following sections break down conventional hydrogen plants into functional blocks and discusses how Industry 4.0 technologies can be applied to each segment. The components benefits and application scenarios of Hydrogen 4.0 are discussed while how digitalisation technologies can contribute to the successful integration of sustainable energy solutions in the global energy sector is also addressed.
Sensing Hydrogen Seeps in the Subsurface for Natural Hydrogen Exploration
Jun 2022
Publication
The recent detection of natural hydrogen seeps in sedimentary basin settings has triggered significant interest in the exploration of this promising resource. If large economical resources exist and can be extracted from the sub-surface this would provide an opportunity for natural hydrogen to contribute to the non-carbon-based energy mix. The detection and exploration of hydrogen gas in the sub-surface is a significant challenge that requires costly drilling sophisticated instrumentation and reliable analytical/sampling methods. Here we propose the application of a commercial-based sensor that can be used to detect and monitor low levels of hydrogen gas emissions from geological environments. The sensitivity selectivity (K > 1000) and stability (<1 ppm/day) of the sensor was evaluated under various conditions to determine its suitability for geological field monitoring. Calibration tests showed that the hydrogen readings from the sensor were within ±20% of the expected values. We propose that chemical sensing is a simple and feasible method for understanding natural hydrogen seeps that emanate from geological systems and formations. However we recommend using this sensor as part of a complete geological survey that incorporates an understanding of the geology along with complementary techniques that provide information on the rock properties.
Australians’ Considerations for Use of Hydrogen in the Transport Sector
Sep 2019
Publication
Hydrogen fuel cells power a range of vehicles including cars buses trucks forklifts and even trains. As fuel cell electric vehicles emit no carbon emissions and only produce water vapor as a by-product they present an attractive option for countries who are experiencing high pollution from transport. This paper presents the findings of ten focus groups and a subset of a national survey which focused specifically on use of hydrogen in the transport sector (N=948). When discussing hydrogen transport options Australian focus group participants felt that rolling out hydrogen fuel cell buses as a first step for fuel cell electric vehicle deployment would be a good way to increase familiarity with the technology. Deploying hydrogen public transport vehicles before personal vehicles was thought to be a positive way to demonstrate the safe use of hydrogen and build confidence in the technology. At the same time it was felt it would allow any issues to be ironed out before the roll out of large-scale infrastructure on a to support domestic use. Long haul trucks were also perceived to be a good idea however safety issues were raised in the focus groups when discussing these vehicles. Survey respondents also expressed positive support for the use of hydrogen fuel cell buses and long-haul trucks. They reported being happy to be a passenger in a fuel cell bus. Safety and environmental benefits remained paramount with cost considerations being the third most important issue. Respondents supportive of hydrogen technologies were most likely to report purchasing a hydrogen vehicle over other options
Integrating a Top-Gas Recycling and CO2 Electrolysis Process for H2-Rich Gas Injection and Reduce CO2 Emissions from an Ironmaking Blast Furnace
Mar 2022
Publication
Introducing CO2 electrochemical conversion technology to the iron-making blast furnace not only reduces CO2 emissions but also produces H2 as a byproduct that can be used as an auxiliary reductant to further decrease carbon consumption and emissions. With adequate H2 supply to the blast furnace the injection of H2 is limited because of the disadvantageous thermodynamic characteristics of the H2 reduction reaction in the blast furnace. This paper presents thermodynamic analysis of H2 behaviour at different stages with the thermal requirement consideration of an iron-making blast furnace. The effect of injecting CO2 lean top gas and CO2 conversion products H2–CO gas through the raceway and/or shaft tuyeres are investigated under different operating conditions. H2 utilisation efficiency and corresponding injection volume are studied by considering different reduction stages. The relationship between H2 injection and coke rate is established. Injecting 7.9–10.9 m3/tHM of H2 saved 1 kg/tHM coke rate depending on injection position. Compared with the traditional blast furnace injecting 80 m3/tHM of H2 with a medium oxygen enrichment rate (9%) and integrating CO2 capture and conversion reduces CO2 emissions from 534 to 278 m3/tHM. However increasing the hydrogen injection amount causes this iron-making process to consume more energy than a traditional blast furnace does.
An Adaptive Renewable Energy Plant (AREP) - To Power Local Premises and Vehicles with 100% Renewables
Aug 2021
Publication
An adaptive response renewable energy plant (AREP) that provides grid balancing services and XeV station fuelling services (where “X” is any type) using renewable energy located in urban centres is described. The AREP has its own primary renewable energy sources and adapts operation in the short term to changing levels of excess or deficient energy on LV and MV electricity grids. The AREP adaptively responds by (1) storing excess energy in batteries for the short term and in hydrogen tanks after energy conversion by electrolysers for the long term; (2) returning power to the grid from either the AREP’s own primary (electron-based) energy sources or batteries and/or from hydrogen via conversion in fuel cells; (3) providing electricity for fast charging BeVs and PHeVs and hydrogen for FCeVs; and (4) exporting excess stored energy as hydrogen to domestic markets. The AREP also adapts over the long term by predictive planning of charging capacity such that the type and capacity of renewable energy equipment is optimised for future operations. A key advantage of this AREP configuration is a flexible “plug and play” capability with modular extension of energy assets. If the AREP footprint is constrained interaction with neighbouring AREPs as a mini-VPP-AREP network can assist in balancing short-term operating requirements. The benefits of this grid balancing and XeV renewable energy filling station or AREP are environmental social and economic through efficient functionality of appropriately sized components. AREPs provide a net zero emissions electricity solution to an existing network with short and long-term storage options as well as a net zero emissions fuel alternative to the transport sector while leveraging existing infrastructure with minimal upfront CAPEX. AREPs can give the flexibility a grid needs to enable high levels of renewable installations while developing green hydrogen production.
Strategies for the Adoption of Hydrogen-Based Energy Storage Systems: An Exploratory Study in Australia
Aug 2022
Publication
A significant contribution to the reduction of carbon emissions will be enabled through the transition from a centralised fossil fuel system to a decentralised renewable electricity system. However due to the intermittent nature of renewable energy storage is required to provide a suitable response to dynamic loads and manage the excess generated electricity with utilisation during periods of low generation. This paper investigates the use of stationary hydrogen-based energy storage systems for microgrids and distributed energy resource systems. An exploratory study was conducted in Australia based on a mixed methodology. Ten Australian industry experts were interviewed to determine use cases for hydrogen-based energy storage systems’ requirements barriers methods and recommendations. This study suggests that the current cost of the electrolyser fuel cell and storage medium and the current low round-trip efficiency are the main elements inhibiting hydrogen-based energy storage systems. Limited industry and practical experience are barriers to the implementation of hydrogen storage systems. Government support could help scale hydrogen-based energy storage systems among early adopters and enablers. Furthermore collaboration and knowledge sharing could reduce risks allowing the involvement of more stakeholders. Competition and innovation could ultimately reduce the costs increasing the uptake of hydrogen storage systems.
The Hydrogen Economy - Where is the Water?
Jul 2022
Publication
"Green hydrogen” i.e. hydrogen produced by splitting water with a carbon “free” source of electricity via electrolysis is set to become the energy vector enabling a deep decarbonisation of society and a virtuous water based energy cycle. If to date water electrolysis is considered to be a scalable technology the source of water to enable a “green hydrogen” economy at scale is questionable. Countries with the highest renewable energy potential like Australia are also among the driest places on earth. Globally 380000 GL/year of wastewater is available and this is much more than the 34500 GL/year of water required to produce the projected 2.3 Gt of hydrogen of a mature hydrogen economy. Hence the need to assess both technically and economically whether some wastewater treatment effluent are a better source for green hydrogen. Analysis of Sydney Water’s wastewater treatment plants alone shows that these plants have 37.6 ML/day of unused tertiary effluents which if electrolysed would generate 420000 t H2/day or 0.88 Mt H2/year and cover ∼100% of Australia’s estimated production by 2030. Furthermore the production of oxygen as a by-product of the electrolysis process could lead to significant benefits to the water industry not only in reducing the cost of the hydrogen produced for $3/kg (assuming a price of oxygen of $3–4 per kg) but also in improving the environmental footprint of wastewater treatment plants by enabling the onsite re-use of oxygen for the treatment of the wastewater. Compared to desalinated water that requires large investments or stormwater that is unpredictable it is apparent that the water utilities have a critical role to play in managing water assets that are “climate independent” as the next “golden oil” opportunity and in enabling a “responsible” hydrogen industry that sensibly manages its water demands and does not compete with existing water potable water demand.
Cross-regional Electricity and Hydrogen Deployment Research Based on Coordinated Optimization: Towards Carbon Neutrality in China
Sep 2022
Publication
In order to achieve carbon neutrality in a few decades the clean energy proportion in power mix of China will significantly rise to over 90%. A consensus has been reached recently that it will be of great significance to promote hydrogen energy that is produced by variable renewable energy power generation as a mainstay energy form in view of its potential value on achieving carbon neutrality. This is because hydrogen energy is capable of complementing the power system and realizing further electrification especially in the section that cannot be easily replaced by electric energy. Power system related planning model is commonly used for mid-term and long-term planning implemented through power installation and interconnection capacity expansion optimization. In consideration of the high importance of hydrogen and its close relationship with electricity an inclusive perspective which contains both kinds of the foresaid energy is required to deal with planning problems. In this study a joint model is established by coupling hydrogen energy model in the chronological operation power planning model to realize coordinated optimization on energy production transportation and storage. By taking the carbon neutrality scenario of China as an example the author applies this joint model to deploy a scheme research on power generation and hydrogen production inter-regional energy transportation capacity and hydrogen storage among various regions. Next by taking the technology progress and cost decrease prediction uncertainty into account the main technical– economic parameters are employed as variables to carry out sensitivity analysis research with a hope that the quantitative calculation and results discussion could provide suggestion and reference to energy-related companies policy-makers and institute researchers in formulating strategies on related energy development.
A Review on Ports' Readiness to Facilitate International Hydrogen Trade
Jan 2023
Publication
The existing literature on the hydrogen supply chains has knowledge gaps. Most studies focus on hydrogen production storage transport and utilisation but neglect ports which are nexuses in the supply chains. To fill the gap this paper focuses on ports' readiness for the upcoming hydrogen international trade. Potential hydrogen exporting and importing ports are screened. Ports' readiness for hydrogen export and import are reviewed from perspectives of infrastructure risk management public acceptance regulations and standards and education and training. The main findings are: (1) liquid hydrogen ammonia methanol and LOHCs are suitable forms for hydrogen international trade; (2) twenty ports are identified that could be first movers; among them twelve are exporting ports and eight are importing ports; (3) ports’ readiness for hydrogen international trade is still in its infancy and the infrastructure construction or renovation risk management measures establishment of regulations and standards education and training all require further efforts.
Clean Energy Futures: An Australian Based Foresight Study
Aug 2022
Publication
Political decarbonisation commitments and outcompeting renewable electricity costs are disrupting energy systems. This foresight study prepares stakeholders for this dynamic reactive change by examining visions that constitute a probable plausible and possible component of future energy systems. Visions were extrapolated through an expert review of energy technologies and Australian case studies. ‘Probable–Abundant’ envisages a high penetration of solar and wind with increased value of balancing services: batteries pumped hydro and transmission. This vision is exemplified by the South Australian grid where variable and distributed sources lead generation. ‘Plausible–Traded’ envisages power and power fuel exports given hydrogen and high-voltage direct-current transmission advances reflected by public and private sector plans to leverage rich natural resources for national and intercontinental exchanges. ‘Possible–Zero’ envisages the application of carbon removal and nuclear technologies in response to the escalating challenge of deep decarbonisation. The Australian critical minerals strategy signals adaptations of high-emission industries to shifting energy resource values. These visions contribute a flexible accessible framework for diverse stakeholders to discuss uncertain energy systems changes and consider issues from new perspectives. Appraisal of preferred futures allows stakeholders to recognise observed changes as positive or negative and may lead to new planning aspirations.
No more items...