United Kingdom
Evidence Base Utilised to Justify a Hydrogen Blend Gas Network Safety Case
Sep 2021
Publication
Blending hydrogen with natural gas up to 20 % mol/mol has been identified as a key enabler of hydrogen deployment within the UK gas network. This work outlines the evidence base generated to form the basis of safety submitted to the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) to justify a demonstration of hydrogen blending on a live public gas network within the UK supplying a hydrogen blend to 668homes over the course of 10 months. An evidence base to demonstrate that gas users are not prejudiced by the addition of hydrogen is required by the Gas Safety (Management) Regulations [1] to allow hydrogen distribution above the 0.1 mol% limit specified within the regulations. The technical evidence generated to support the safety case presented to the HSE concerned the implications of introducing a hydrogen blend on appliance operation materials gas characteristics and operational procedures. The outputs of the technical evidence workstreams provided input data to a Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of the GB gas distribution network. The QRA was developed in support of the safety case to allow a causal understanding of public risk to be understood where harm due to gas usage was defined as risk to life caused either by carbon monoxide poisoning or as a result of fires/explosions. Public records were used to calibrate and validate the base risk model to understand the dynamics of public risk due to natural gas usage. The experimental and analytical results of the technical workstreams were then used to derive risk model inputs relating to a hydrogen blend. This allowed a quantified comparison of risk to be understood to demonstrate parity of safety between natural gas and a hydrogen blend. This demonstration of risk parity is a condition precedent of allowing the distribution and utilisation of hydrogen blends within the GB gas network.
Gas Turbine Enclosures: Determining Ventilation Safety Criteria using Hydrogen Explosion Modelling
Sep 2021
Publication
Dilution ventilation is the current basis of safety following a flammable gas leak within a gas turbine enclosure and compliance requirements are defined for methane fuels in ISO 21789. These requirements currently define a safety criteria of a maximum flammable gas cloud size within an enclosure. The requirements are based on methane explosion tests conducted during a HSE Joint Industry Project which identified typical pressures associated with a range of gas cloud sizes. The industry standard approach is to assess the ventilation performance of specific enclosure designs against these requirements using CFD modelling. Gas turbine manufacturers are increasingly considering introducing hydrogen/methane fuel mixtures and looking towards operating with hydrogen alone. It is therefore important to review the applicability of current safety standards for these new fuels as the pressure resulting from a hydrogen explosion is expected to be significantly higher than that from a methane explosion. In this paper we replicate the previous methane explosion tests for hydrogen and hydrogen/methane fuel mixtures using the explosion modelling tool FLACS CFD. The results are used to propose updated limiting safety criteria for hydrogen fuels to support ventilation CFD analysis for specific enclosure designs. It is found that significantly smaller gas cloud sizes are likely to be acceptable for gas turbines fueled by hydrogen however significantly more hydrogen than methane is required per unit volume to generate a stoichiometric cloud (as hydrogen has a lower stoichiometric air fuel ratio than methane). This effect results in the total quantity of gas in the enclosure (and as such detectability of the gas) being broadly similar when operating gas turbines on hydrogen when compared to methane.
Sustainable Synthetic Carbon Based Fuels for Transport
Sep 2019
Publication
The report considers two types of sustainable synthetic fuels: electro fuels (efuels) and synthetic biofuels. Efuels are made by combining hydrogen (from for example the electrolysis of water) with carbon dioxide (from direct air capture or a point source). Synthetic biofuels can be made from biological material (for example waste from forestry) or from further processing biofuels (for example ethanol).<br/>Whilst synthetic fuels can be “dropped in” to existing engines they are currently more expensive than fossil fuels and in the case of efuels could be thought of as an inefficient use of renewable electricity. However where renewable electricity is cheap and plentiful the manufacture and export of bulk efuels might make economic sense.<br/>Key research challenges identified include improving the fundamental understanding of catalysis; the need to produce cheap low-carbon hydrogen at scale; and developing sources of competitively priced low carbon energy are key to the development of synthetic efuels and biofuels. The UK has the research skills and capacity to improve many of these process steps such as in catalysis and biotechnology and to provide a further area of UK leadership in low-carbon energy.
The Path to Net Zero and Progress on Reducing Emissions in Wales
Dec 2020
Publication
These two joint reports required under the Environment (Wales) Act 2016 provide ministers with advice on Wales’ climate targets between now and 2050 and assess progress on reducing emissions to date. Our advice to the Welsh Government is set out in two parts:
Advice Report: The path to a Net Zero Wales provides recommendations on the actions that are needed in Wales including the legislation of a Net Zero target and package of policies to deliver it.
Progress Report: Reducing emissions in Wales looks back at the progress made in Wales since the 2016 Environment (Wales) Act was passed and assesses whether Wales is on track to meet its currently legislated emissions reductions targets.
This work is based on an extensive programme of analysis consultation and consideration by the Committee and its staff building on the evidence published last year for our Net Zero report. It is compatible with our advice on the UK’s Sixth Carbon Budget. In support of the advice in this report we have also published:
Advice Report: The path to a Net Zero Wales provides recommendations on the actions that are needed in Wales including the legislation of a Net Zero target and package of policies to deliver it.
Progress Report: Reducing emissions in Wales looks back at the progress made in Wales since the 2016 Environment (Wales) Act was passed and assesses whether Wales is on track to meet its currently legislated emissions reductions targets.
This work is based on an extensive programme of analysis consultation and consideration by the Committee and its staff building on the evidence published last year for our Net Zero report. It is compatible with our advice on the UK’s Sixth Carbon Budget. In support of the advice in this report we have also published:
- All the charts and data behind the report as well as a separate dataset for the scenarios which sets out more details and data on the pathways than can be included in this report.
- A public Call for Evidence several new research projects three expert advisory groups and deep dives into the roles of local authorities and businesses.
From Post-Combustion Carbon Capture to Sorption-Enhanced Hydrogen Production: A State-of-the-Art Review of Carbonate Looping Process Feasibility
Oct 2018
Publication
Carbon capture and storage is expected to play a pivotal role in achieving the emission reduction targets established by the Paris Agreement. However the most mature technologies have been shown to reduce the net efficiency of fossil fuel-fired power plants by at least 7% points increasing the electricity cost. Carbonate looping is a technology that may reduce these efficiency and economic penalties. Its maturity has increased significantly over the past twenty years mostly due to development of novel process configurations and sorbents for improved process performance. This review provides a comprehensive overview of the calcium looping concepts and statistically evaluates their techno-economic feasibility. It has been shown that the most commonly reported figures for the efficiency penalty associated with calcium looping retrofits were between 6 and 8% points. Furthermore the calcium-looping-based coal-fired power plants and sorption-enhanced hydrogen production systems integrated with combined cycles and/or fuel cells have been shown to achieve net efficiencies as high as 40% and 50–60% respectively. Importantly the performance of both retrofit and greenfield scenarios can be further improved by increasing the degree of heat integration as well as using advanced power cycles and enhanced sorbents. The assessment of the economic feasibility of calcium looping concepts has indicated that the cost of carbon dioxide avoided will be between 10 and 30 € per tonne of carbon dioxide and 10–50 € per tonne of carbon dioxide in the retrofit and greenfield scenarios respectively. However limited economic data have been presented in the current literature for the thermodynamic performance of calcium looping concepts.
Energy Transition: Measurement Needs Within the Hydrogen Industry
Dec 2017
Publication
Hydrogen in the UK is beginning to shift from hypothetical debates to practical demonstration projects. An ever-growing evidence base has showcased how the costs of hydrogen and its barriers to entry are reducing such that it now has practical potential to contribute to the decarbonisation of the UK's energy sector.
Despite this hydrogen has yet to have wide commercial uptake due in part to a number of barriers where measurement plays a critical role. To accelerate the shift towards the hydrogen economy these challenges have been identified and prioritised by NPL.
The report Energy transition: Measurement needs within the hydrogen industry outlines the challenges identified. The highest priority issues are:
This Document can be downloaded from their website
Despite this hydrogen has yet to have wide commercial uptake due in part to a number of barriers where measurement plays a critical role. To accelerate the shift towards the hydrogen economy these challenges have been identified and prioritised by NPL.
The report Energy transition: Measurement needs within the hydrogen industry outlines the challenges identified. The highest priority issues are:
- Material development for fuel cells and electrolysers to reduce costs and assess critical degradation mechanisms – extending lifetime and durability is key to the commercialisation of these technologies.
- Impact assessment of added odorant to hydrogen to aid leak detection. Measurement of its impact during pipeline transportation and on the end-use application (particularly fuel cell technology) will be important to provide assurance that it will not affect lifetime and durability.
- Determination of the blend ratio when hydrogen is mixed with natural gas in the gas grid. Accurate flow rate measurement and validated metering methods are needed to ensure accurate billing of the consumer.
- Measurement of the combustion properties of hydrogen including flame detection and propagation temperature and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions should it be used for heat applications to ensure existing and new appliances are suitable for hydrogen.
- Assessment of the suitability of existing gas infrastructure and materials for hydrogen transportation. Building an understanding of what adaptations might need to be made to avoid for example air permeation metal embrittlement and hydrogen leakage.
- Validated techniques for hydrogen storage which will require measurement of the efficiency and capacity of each mechanism through robust metering leakage detection and purity analysis to ensure they are optimised for the storage of hydrogen gas.
This Document can be downloaded from their website
Conversion of the UK Gas System to Transport Hydrogen
May 2013
Publication
One option to decarbonise residential heat in the UK is to convert the existing natural gas networks to deliver hydrogen. We review the technical feasibility of this option using semistructured interviews underpinned by a literature review and we assess the potential economic benefits using the UK MARKAL energy systems model. We conclude that hydrogen can be transported safely in the low-pressure pipes but we identify concerns over the reduced capacity of the system and the much lower linepack storage compared to natural gas. New hydrogen meters and sensors would have to be fitted to every building in a hydrogen conversion program and appliances would have to be converted unless the government was to legislate to make them hydrogen-ready in advance. Converting the gas networks to hydrogen is a lower-cost residential decarbonisation pathway for the UK than those identified previously. The cost-optimal share of hydrogen is sensitive to the conversion cost and to variations in the capital costs of heat pumps and micro-CHP fuel cells. With such small cost differentials between technologies the decision to convert the networks will also depend on non-economic factors including the relative performance of technologies and the willingness of the government to organise a conversion program.
The Effect of Hydrogen Containing Fuel Blends Upon Flashback in Swirl Burners
Feb 2011
Publication
Lean premixed swirl combustion is widely used in gas turbines and many other combustion Processes due to the benefits of good flame stability and blow off limits coupled with low NOx emissions. Although flashback is not generally a problem with natural gas combustion there are some reports of flashback damage with existing gas turbines whilst hydrogen enriched fuel blends especially those derived from gasification of coal and/or biomass/industrial processes such as steel making cause concerns in this area. Thus this paper describes a practical experimental approach to study and reduce the effect of flashback in a compact design of generic swirl burner representative of many systems. A range of different fuel blends are investigated for flashback and blow off limits; these fuel mixes include methane methane/hydrogen blends pure hydrogen and coke oven gas. Swirl number effects are investigated by varying the number of inlets or the configuration of the inlets. The well known Lewis and von Elbe critical boundary velocity gradient expression is used to characterise flashback and enable comparison to be made with other available data. Two flashback phenomena are encountered here. The first one at lower swirl numbers involves flashback through the outer wall boundary layer where the crucial parameter is the critical boundary velocity gradient Gf. Values of Gf are of similar magnitude to those reported by Lewis and von Elbe for laminar flow conditions and it is recognised that under the turbulent flow conditions pertaining here actual gradients in the thin swirl flow boundary layer are much higher than occur under laminar flow conditions. At higher swirl numbers the central recirculation zone (CRZ) becomes enlarged and extends backwards over the fuel injector to the burner baseplate and causes flashback to occur earlier at higher velocities. This extension of the CRZ is complex being governed by swirl number equivalence ratio and Reynolds Number. Under these conditions flashback occurs when the cylindrical flame front surrounding the CRZ rapidly accelerates outwards to the tangential inlets and beyond especially with hydrogen containing fuel mixes. Conversely at lower swirl numbers with a modified exhaust geometry hence restricted CRZ flashback occurs through the outer thin boundary layer at much lower flow rates when the hydrogen content of the fuel mix does not exceed 30%. The work demonstrates that it is possible to run premixed swirl burners with a wide range of hydrogen fuel blends so as to substantially minimise flashback behaviour thus permitting wider used of the technology to reduce NOx emissions.
Controlled Autoignition of Hydrogen in a Direct-injection Optical Engine
Mar 2021
Publication
Research into novel internal combustion engines requires consideration of the diversity in future fuels in an attempt to reduce drastically CO2 emissions from vehicles and promote energy sustainability. Hydrogen has been proposed as a possible fuel for future internal combustion engines and can be produced from renewable sources. Hydrogen’s wide flammability range allows higher engine efficiency than conventional fuels with both reduced toxic emissions and no CO2 gases. Most previous work on hydrogen engines has focused on spark-ignition operation. The current paper presents results from an optical study of controlled autoignition (or homogeneous charge compression ignition) of hydrogen in an engine of latest spark-ignition pentroof combustion chamber geometry with direct injection of hydrogen (100 bar). This was achieved by a combination of inlet air preheating in the range 200–400 C and residual gas recirculated internally by negative valve overlap. Hydrogen fuelling was set to various values of equivalence ratio typically in the range / = 0.40–0.63. Crank-angle resolved flame chemiluminescence images were acquired for a series of consecutive cycles at 1000 RPM in order to calculate in-cylinder rates of flame expansion and motion. Planar Laser Induced Fluorescence (LIF) of OH was also applied to record more detailed features of the autoignition pattern. Single and double (i.e. ‘split’ per cycle) hydrogen injection strategies were employed in order to identify the effect of mixture preparation on autoignition’s timing and spatial development. An attempt was also made to review relevant in-cylinder phenomena from the limited literature on hydrogen-fuelled spark-ignition optical engines and make comparisons were appropriate.
Socio-technical Barriers to Domestic Hydrogen Futures: Repurposing Pipelines, Policies, and Public Perceptions
Feb 2023
Publication
The feasibility of the global energy transition may rest on the ability of nations to harness hydrogen's potential for cross-sectoral decarbonization. In countries historically reliant on natural gas for domestic heating and cooking such as the UK hydrogen may prove critical to meeting net-zero targets and strengthening energy security. In response the UK government is targeting industrial decarbonization via hydrogen with parallel interest in deploying hydrogen-fueled appliances for businesses and homes. However prospective hydrogen futures and especially the domestic hydrogen transition face multiple barriers which reflect the cross-sectoral dynamics of achieving economies of scale and social acceptance. Addressing these challenges calls for a deep understanding of socio-technical factors across different scales of the hydrogen economy. In response this paper develops a socio-technical systems framework for overcoming barriers to the domestic transition which is applied to the UK context. The paper demonstrates that future strategies should account for interactions between political techno-economic technical market and social dimensions of the hydrogen transition. In parallel to techno-economic feasibility the right policies will be needed to create an even playing field for green hydrogen technologies while also supporting stakeholder symbiosis and consumer buy-in. Future studies should grapple with how an effective repurposing of pipelines policies and public perceptions can be aligned to accelerate the development of the hydrogen economy with maximum net benefits for society and the environment.
A Review of Energy Systems Models in the UK: Prevalent Usage and Categorisation
Feb 2016
Publication
In this paper a systematic review of academic literature and policy papers since 2008 is undertaken with an aim of identifying the prevalent energy systems models and tools in the UK. A list of all referenced models is presented and the literature is analysed with regards sectoral coverage and technological inclusion as well as mathematical structure of models. The paper compares available models using an appropriate classification schema the introduction of which is aimed at making the model landscape more accessible and perspicuous thereby enhancing the diversity of models within use. The distinct classification presented in this paper comprises three sections which specify the model purpose and structure technological detail and mathematical approach. The schema is not designed to be comprehensive but rather to be a broad classification with pertinent level of information required to differentiate between models. As an example the UK model landscape is considered and 22 models are classified in three tables as per the proposed schema.
A Review of the MSCA ITN ECOSTORE—Novel Complex Metal Hydrides for Efficient and Compact Storage of Renewable Energy as Hydrogen and Electricity
Mar 2020
Publication
Hydrogen as an energy carrier is very versatile in energy storage applications. Developments in novel sustainable technologies towards a CO2-free society are needed and the exploration of all-solid-state batteries (ASSBs) as well as solid-state hydrogen storage applications based on metal hydrides can provide solutions for such technologies. However there are still many technical challenges for both hydrogen storage material and ASSBs related to designing low-cost materials with low-environmental impact. The current materials considered for all-solid-state batteries should have high conductivities for Na+ Mg2+ and Ca2+ while Al3+-based compounds are often marginalised due to the lack of suitable electrode and electrolyte materials. In hydrogen storage materials the sluggish kinetic behaviour of solid-state hydride materials is one of the key constraints that limit their practical uses. Therefore it is necessary to overcome the kinetic issues of hydride materials before discussing and considering them on the system level. This review summarizes the achievements of the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) innovative training network (ITN) ECOSTORE the aim of which was the investigation of different aspects of (complex) metal hydride materials. Advances in battery and hydrogen storage materials for the efficient and compact storage of renewable energy production are discussed.
Pipeline to 2050 - Building the Foundations for a Harmonised Heat Strategy
Nov 2020
Publication
Following up on our report Uncomfortable Home Truths: why Britain urgently needs a low carbon heat strategy Pipeline to 2050 sets out recommendations for BEIS’ forthcoming Heat and Buildings Strategy. Based on the findings of five roundtables held between January and July 2020 with cross-party parliamentarians policy-makers and experts from industry academia and non-governmental organisations the publication calls for a joined-up approach that simultaneously addresses all aspects of heat decarbonisation.<br/>The report highlights that today there is a patchwork of heat policy initiatives. Although they might incentivise positive development in themselves are nevertheless too dispersed and not enough to drive the level of coordinated action that is needed given the complexity of heat decarbonisation. Setting out propositions to tackle challenges associated with the transition to low carbon heat in the areas of governance funding innovation and public engagement; the publication calls for a Heat and Buildings Strategy that shows a step change in terms of ambition for heat decarbonisation.<br/>The report recommends that the Heat and Buildings Strategy needs to put forward a systematic approach that joins up all policy aspects and principles needed for the transition to low carbon heat. Moreover given the cross-sectoral engagement needed between consumers industry research and various levels of the government it argues that the Strategy has to be constructed in a way that simultaneously catalyses action from all stakeholders that are needed to take part in the process for effective heat decarbonisation.
A Study into Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell Power and Voltage Prediction using Artificial Neural Network
Sep 2022
Publication
Polymer Electrolyte Membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) uses hydrogen as fuel to generate electricity and by-product water at relatively low operating temperatures which is environmentally friendly. Since PEMFC performance characteristics are inherently nonlinear and related predicting the best performance for the different operating conditions is essential to improve the system’s efficiency. Thus modeling using artificial neural networks (ANN) to predict its performance can significantly improve the capabilities of handling multi-variable nonlinear performance of the PEMFC. This paper predicts the electrical performance of a PEMFC stack under various operating conditions. The four input terms for the 5 W PEMFC include anode and cathode pressures and flow rates. The model performances are based on ANN using two different learning algorithms to estimate the stack voltage and power. The models have shown consistently to be comparable to the experimental data. All models with at least five hidden neurons have coefficients of determination of 0.95 or higher. Meanwhile the PEMFC voltage and power models have mean squared errors of less than 1 × 10−3 V and 1 × 10−3 W respectively. Therefore the model results demonstrate the potential use of ANN into the implementation of such models to predict the steady state behavior of the PEMFC system (not limited to polarization curves) for different operating conditions and help in the optimization process for achieving the best performance of the system.
Life Cycle Costing Analysis: Tools and Applications for Determining Hydrogen Production Cost for Fuel Cell Vehicle Technology
Jul 2021
Publication
This work investigates life cycle costing analysis as a tool to estimate the cost of hydrogen to be used as fuel for Hydrogen Fuel Cell vehicles (HFCVs). The method of life cycle costing and economic data are considered to estimate the cost of hydrogen for centralised and decentralised production processes. In the current study two major hydrogen production methods are considered methane reforming and water electrolysis. The costing frameworks are defined for hydrogen production transportation and final application. The results show that hydrogen production via centralised methane reforming is financially viable for future transport applications. The ownership cost of HFCVs shows the highest cost among other costs of life cycle analysis.
Building Hydrogen Competence, a Technology Aligned Skills and Knowledge Approach
Sep 2021
Publication
There is a pressing need for a framework and strategic approach to be taken to workforce safety training requirements of new hydrogen projects. It is apparent that organisations embarking on projects utilizing or producing green hydrogen need to implement a program of training for their workforce in order to ensure that all personnel within their organisation understand not only the environmental benefits of green hydrogen but also the safety considerations that come with either producing or using hydrogen as a fuel. Energy Transition must be safe to be successful. If such an approach is taken by industry and stakeholders it is also possible to use the high level content as a vehicle and basis to offer public audiences which also require a basic level of understanding in order to fully accept the transition to using hydrogen more widely as a fuel. This will be crucial to the success of national hydrogen strategies. Coeus Energy has developed an innovative framework of training following engagement with operators keen to ensure their duty of care responsibilities have been met. Whilst having highly skilled personnel already employed within their organisations specific hydrogen content is still required for workforce competence. This is where the framework need arises as the knowledge is required at all levels of an organisation.
A Review of Factors Affecting SCC Initiation and Propagation in Pipeline Carbon Steels
Aug 2022
Publication
Pipelines have been installed and operated around the globe to transport oil and gas for decades. They are considered to be an effective economic and safe means of transportation. The major concern in their operation is corrosion. Among the different forms of corrosion stress corrosion cracking (SCC) which is caused by stresses induced by internal fluid flow or other external forces during the pipeline’s operation in combined action with the presence of a corrosive medium can lead to pipeline failure. In this paper an extensive review of different factors affecting SCC of pipeline steels in various environmental conditions is carried out to understand their impact. Several factors such as temperature presence of oxidizers (O2 CO2 H2S etc.) composition and concentration of medium pH applied stress and microstructure of the metal/alloy have been established to affect the SCC of pipeline steels. SCC susceptibility of a steel at a particular temperature strongly depends on the type and composition of the corrosive medium and microstructure. It was observed that pipeline steels with water quenched and quenched and tempered heat treatments such as those that consist of acicular ferrite or bainitic ferrite grains are more susceptible to SCC irrespective of solution type and composition. Applied stress stress concentration and fluctuating stress facilitates SCC initiation and propagation. In general the mechanisms for crack initiation and propagation in near-neutral solutions are anodic dissolution and hydrogen embrittlement.
Heating Economics Evaluated Against Emissions: An Analysis of Low-carbon Heating Systems with Spatiotemporal and Dwelling Variations
Oct 2022
Publication
An understanding of heating technologies from the consumers’ perspective is critical to ensure low-carbon technologies are adopted for reducing their current associated emissions. Existing studies from the consumers’ perspective do not compare and optimise the full range and combinations of potential heating systems. There is also little consideration of how spatiotemporal and dwelling variations combined alter the economic and environmental effectiveness of technologies. The novelty of this paper is the creation and use of a new comprehensive framework to capture the range of heating technologies and their viability for any specific dwelling’s traits and climate from customers’ perspective which is missing from current studies. The model optimises combinations of prime heaters energy sources ancillary solar technologies and sizes thermal energy storage sizes and tariffs with hourly heating simulation across a year and compares their operation capital and lifetime costs alongside emissions to realise the true preferential heating systems for customers which could be used by various stakeholders. Using the UK as a case study the results show electrified heating is generally the optimum lifetime cost solution mainly from air source heat pumps coupled with photovoltaics. However direct electrical heating becomes more economically viable as dwelling demands reduce from smaller dwellings or warmer climates as shorter durations of the ownership are considered or with capital cost constraints from lower income households. Understanding this is of high importance as without correctly targeted incentives a larger uptake of direct electrical heating may occur which will burden the electrical network and generation to a greater extent than more efficient heat pumps.
Life Cycle Cost Analysis for Scotland Short-Sea Ferries
Feb 2023
Publication
The pathway to zero carbon emissions passing through carbon emissions reduction is mandatory in the shipping industry. Regarding the various methodologies and technologies reviewed for this purpose Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) has been used as an excellent tool to determine economic feasibility and sustainability and to present directions. However insufficient commercial applications cause a conflict of opinion on which fuel is the key to decarbonisation. Many LCCA comparison studies about eco-friendly ship propulsion claim different results. In order to overcome this and discover the key factors that affect the overall comparative analysis and results in the maritime field it is necessary to conduct the comparative analysis considering more diverse case ships case routes and various types that combine each system. This study aims to analyse which greener fuels are most economically beneficial for the shipping sector and prove the factors influencing different results in LCCA. This study was conducted on hydrogen ammonia and electric energy which are carbon-free fuels among various alternative fuels that are currently in the limelight. As the power source a PEMFC and battery were used as the main power source and a solar PV system was installed as an auxiliary power source to compare economic feasibility. Several cost data for LCCA were selected from various feasible case studies. As the difficulty caused by the storage and transportation of hydrogen and ammonia should not be underestimated in this study the LCCA considers not only the CapEx and OpEx but also fuel transport costs. As a result fuel cell propulsion systems with hydrogen as fuel proved financial effectiveness for short-distance ferries as they are more inexpensive than ammonia-fuelled PEMFCs and batteries. The fuel cost takes around half of the total life-cycle cost during the life span.
A Novel Framework for Development and Optimisation of Future Electricity Scenarios with High Penetration of Renewables and Storage
May 2019
Publication
Although electricity supply is still dominated by fossil fuels it is expected that renewable sources will have a much larger contribution in the future due to the need to mitigate climate change. Therefore this paper presents a new framework for developing Future Electricity Scenarios (FuturES) with high penetration of renewables. A multi-period linear programming model has been created for power-system expansion planning. This has been coupled with an economic dispatch model PowerGAMA to evaluate the technical and economic feasibility of the developed scenarios while matching supply and demand. Application of FuturES is demonstrated through the case of Chile which has ambitious plans to supply electricity using only renewable sources. Four cost-optimal scenarios have been developed for the year 2050 using FuturES: two Business as usual (BAU) and two Renewable electricity (RE) scenarios. The BAU scenarios are unconstrained in terms of the technology type and can include all 11 options considered. The RE scenarios aim to have only renewables in the mix including storage. The results show that both BAU scenarios have a levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) lower than or equal to today’s costs ($72.7–77.3 vs $77.6/MWh) and include 81–90% of renewables. The RE scenarios are slightly more expensive than today’s costs ($81–87/MWh). The cumulative investment for the BAU scenarios is $123-$145 bn compared to $147-$157 bn for the RE. The annual investment across the scenarios is estimated at $4.0 ± 0.4 bn. Both RE scenarios show sufficient flexibility in matching supply and demand despite solar photovoltaics and wind power contributing around half of the total supply. Therefore the FuturES framework is a powerful tool for aiding the design of cost-efficient power systems with high penetration of renewables.
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