United Kingdom

Future Energy Scenarios (FES) represent a range of different credible ways to decarbonise our energy system as we strive towards the 2050 target.<br/>We’re less than 30 years away from the Net Zero deadline which isn’t long when you consider investment cycles for gas networks electricity transmission lines and domestic heating systems.<br/>FES has an important role to play in stimulating debate and helping to shape the energy system of the future.

Our Future Energy Scenarios (FES) draw on hundreds of experts’ views to model four credible energy pathways for Britain over coming decades. Matthew Wright our head of strategy and regulation outlines what the 2021 outlook means for consumers society and the energy system itself.<br/>This year’s Future Energy Scenarios insight reveals a glimpse of a Britain that is powered with net zero carbon emissions.<br/>Our analysis shows that our country can achieve its legally-binding carbon reduction targets: in three out of four scenarios in the analysis the country reaches net zero carbon emissions by 2050 with Leading the Way – our most ambitious scenario – achieving it in 2047 and becoming net negative by 2050.

Billions of litres of wastewater are produced daily from domestic and industrial areas and whilst wastewater is often perceived as a problem it has the potential to be viewed as a rich source for resources and energy. Wastewater contains between four and five times more energy than is required to treat it and is a potential source of bio-hydrogen—a clean energy vector a feedstock chemical and a fuel widely recognised to have a role in the decarbonisation of the future energy system. This paper investigates sustainable low-energy intensive routes for hydrogen production from wastewater critically analysing five technologies namely photo-fermentation dark fermentation photocatalysis microbial photo electrochemical processes and microbial electrolysis cells (MECs). The paper compares key parameters influencing H2 production yield such as pH temperature and reactor design summarises the state of the art in each area and highlights the scale-up technical challenges. In addition to H2 production these processes can be used for partial wastewater remediation providing at least 45% reduction in chemical oxygen demand (COD) and are suitable for integration into existing wastewater treatment plants. Key advancements in lab-based research are included highlighting the potential for each technology to contribute to the development of clean energy. Whilst there have been efforts to scale dark fermentation electro and photo chemical technologies are still at the early stages of development (Technology Readiness Levels below 4); therefore pilot plants and demonstrators sited at wastewater treatment facilities are needed to assess commercial viability. As such a multidisciplinary approach is needed to overcome the current barriers to implementation integrating expertise in engineering chemistry and microbiology with the commercial experience of both water and energy sectors. The review concludes by highlighting MECs as a promising technology due to excellent system modularity good hydrogen yield (3.6–7.9 L/L/d from synthetic wastewater) and the potential to remove up to 80% COD from influent streams.

Hydrogen is gaining traction as a key energy carrier due to its clean combustion high energy content and versatility. As the world shifts towards sustainable energy hydrogen demand is rapidly increasing. This paper introduces a novel hybrid time series modeling approach designed and developed to accurately predict hydrogen demand by mixing linear and nonlinear models and accounting for the impact of non-recurring events and dynamic energy market changes over time. The model incorporates key economic variables like hydrogen price oil price natural gas price and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. To address these challenges we propose a four-part framework comprising the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model the enhanced empirical wavelet transform (EEWT) and high-order fuzzy cognitive maps (HFCM). The HP filter extracts recurring structural patterns around specific data points and resolves challenges in hybridizing linear and nonlinear models. The ARFIMA model equipped with statistical memory captures linear trends in the data. Meanwhile the EEWT handles non-stationary time series by adaptively decomposing data. HFCM integrates the outputs from these components with ridge regression fine-tuning the HFCM to handle complex time series dynamics. Validation using stochastic non-Gaussian synthetic data demonstrates that this model significantly enhances prediction performance. The methodology offers notable improvements in prediction accuracy and stability compared to existing models with implications for optimizing hydrogen production and storage systems. The proposed approach is also a valuable tool for policy formulation in renewable energy and smart energy transitions offering a robust solution for forecasting hydrogen demand

This study focuses on arguably the most contentious choice of energy supply option available for decarbonizing general-purpose long-haul road freight: hydrogen. For operators infrastructure providers energy providers and vehicle manufacturers to make the investments necessary to enable this transition it is essential to evaluate the feasibility of individual energy supply choices. A literature review is conducted identifying ten requirements for an energy supply choice to be feasible which are then translated into “what would need to be true” conditions for hydrogen to meet these requirements. Considering these evidence from literature is used to assess the likelihood of each condition becoming true within the lifespan of a vehicle bought today. It is concluded that it is unlikely that hydrogen will become feasible in this time frame meaning it can be disregarded as a current vehicle purchase consideration as it will not undermine the competitiveness or resale value of a vehicle using a different energy source bought today. There are two principal innovations in the study approach: the consideration of socio-technical and political as well as techno-economic factors; and the application of realist retroductive option assessment. While not necessary to address the research question regarding hydrogen a realist retroductive assessment is also presented for other prominent low carbon energy source options: battery electric electric road systems (ERS) and biofuels; and the conditions under which these options could be feasible are considered.

The hydrogen fuel quality is critical to the efficiency and longevity of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) with ISO 14687:2019 grade D establishing stringent impurity limits. This study compared two different sampling techniques for assessing the hydrogen fuel quality focusing on the National Physical Laboratory hydrogen direct sampling apparatus (NPL DirSAM) from a 35 MPa heavy-duty (HD) dispenser and qualitizer sampling from a 70 MPa light-duty (LD) nozzle both of which were deployed on the same day at a local hydrogen refuelling station (HRS). The collected samples were analysed as per the ISO 14687:2019 contaminants using the NPL H2-quality laboratory. The NPL DirSAM was able to sample an HD HRS demonstrating the ability to realise such sampling on an HD nozzle. The comparison of the LD (H2 Qualitizer sampling) and HD (NPL DirSAM) devices showed good agreement but significant variation especially for sulphur compounds non-methane hydrocarbons and carbon dioxide. These variations may be related to the HRS difference between the LD and HD devices (e.g. flow path refuelling conditions and precooling for light duty versus no precooling for heavy duty). Further study of HD and LD H2 fuel at HRSs is needed for a better understanding.

The turbocharging of hydrogen fuel cell systems (FCSs) has recently become a prominent research area aiming to improve FCS efficiency to help decarbonise the energy and transport sectors. This work compares the performance of an electrically assisted variable-geometry turbocharger (VGT) with a fixed-geometry turbocharger (FGT) by optimising both the sizing of the components and their operating points ensuring both designs are compared at their respective peak performance. A MATLAB-Simulink reducedorder model is used first to identify the most efficient components that match the fuel cell air path requirements. Maps representing the compressor and turbines are then evaluated in a 1D flow model to optimise cathode pressure and stoichiometry operating targets for net system efficiency using an accelerated genetic algorithm (A-GA). Good agreement was observed between the two models’ trends with a less than 10.5% difference between their normalised e-motor power across all operating points. Under optimised conditions the VGT showed a less than 0.25% increase in fuel cell system efficiency compared to the use of an FGT. However a sensitivity study demonstrates significantly lower sensitivity when operating at non-ideal flows and pressures for the VGT when compared to the FGT suggesting that VGTs may provide a higher level of tolerance under variable environmental conditions such as ambient temperature humidity and transient loading. Overall it is concluded that the efficiency benefits of VGT are marginal and therefore not necessarily significant enough to justify the additional cost and complexity that they introduce.

Demand for low-carbon sources of hydrogen and power is expected to rise dramatically in the coming years. Individually steam methane reformers (SMRs) and combined cycle gas power plants (CCGTs) when combined with carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) can produce large quantities of ondemand decarbonised hydrogen and power respectively. The ongoing trend towards the development of CCUS clusters means that both processes may operate in close proximity taking advantage of a common infrastructure for natural gas supply electricity grid connection and the CO2 transport and storage network. This work improves on a previously described novel integration process which utilizes flue gas sequential combustion to incorporate the SMR process into the CCGT cycle in a single “combined fuel and power” (CFP) plant by increasing the level of thermodynamic integration through the merger of the steam cycles and a redesign of the heat recovery system. This increases the 2nd law thermal efficiency by 2.6% points over un-integrated processes and 1.9% points the previous integration design. Using a conventional 35% wt. monoethanolamine (MEA) CO2 capture process designed to achieve two distinct and previously unexplored CO2 capture fractions; 95% gross and 100% fossil (CO2 generated is equal to the quantity of CO2 captured). The CFP configuration reduces the overall quantity of flue gas to be processed by 36%–37% and increases the average CO2 concentration of the flue gas to be treated from 9.9% to 14.4% (wet). This decreases the absorber packing volume requirements by 41%–56% and decreases the specific reboiler duty by 5.5% from 3.46–3.67 GJ/tCO2 to 3.27–3.46 GJ/tCO2 further increasing the 2nd law thermal efficiency gains to 3.8%–4.4% points over the un-integrated case. A first of a kind techno economic analysis concludes that the improvements present in a CO2 abated CFP plant results in a 15.1%–17.3% and 7.6%–8.0% decrease in capital and operational expenditure respectively for the CO2 capture cases. This translates to an increase in the internal rate of return over the base hurdle rate of 7.5%–7.8% highlighting the potential for substantial cost reductions presented by the CFP configuration.

In a fully decarbonized global energy system hydrogen is likely to be one of few energy vectors that can facilitate long-distance export of renewable energy. However because of divergent literature findings consensus is yet to be reached on the total supply chain costs of shipping hydrogen either as a cryogenic liquid or ammonia. To this end this article presents a detailed process systems-based economic analysis of a typical hydrogen value chain in 2050 employing the method of elementary effects to quantify the effect of uncertainties. With expected landed costs for liquid hydrogen of $4.60 kg1 (H2) and ammonia of $3.30 kg1 (H2) the importance of uncertainty quantification is demonstrated given that specific parametric combinations can yield landed costs below $2.50 kg1 (H2). Given our delivered hydrogen cost of $4.70 kg1 (H2) these results demonstrate the stark difference between the aspirations of decarbonization policy (with some countries aiming for prices below $1 kg1 by 2050) and the present techno-economic reality.

As hydrogen emerges as a pivotal energy carrier in the global transition towards net-zero emissions addressing its technological and regulatory challenges is essential for large-scale deployment. The widespread adoption of hydrogen technologies requires extensive research technical advancements validation testing and certification to ensure their efficiency reliability and safety across various applications including industrial processes power generation and transportation. This study provides an overview of key enabling technologies for green hydrogen production and distribution highlighting the critical challenges that must be overcome to facilitate their widespread adoption. It examines key hydrogen use cases across multiple sectors analysing their associated technical and infrastructural challenges. The technological advancements required to improve hydrogen production storage transportation and end-use applications are discussed. The development of state-of-the-art testing and validation facilities is also assessed as these are vital for ensuring safety performance and regulatory compliance. This work also reviews some of the ongoing academic and industrial initiatives in the UK aimed at promoting technological innovation advancing hydrogen expertise and developing world-class testing infrastructures. This study emphasises the need for stronger more integrated collaboration between universities industries and certifying bodies for building a strong network that promotes knowledge sharing standardisation and innovation for expanding hydrogen solutions and creating a sustainable hydrogen economy.