Ireland
Operational Challenges for Low and High Temperature Electrolyzers Exploiting Curtailed Wind Energy for Hydrogen Production
Jan 2021
Publication
Understanding the system performance of different electrolyzers could aid potential investors achieve maximum return on their investment. To realize this system response characteristics to 4 different summarized data sets of curtailed renewable energy is obtained from the Irish network and was investigated using models of both a Low Temperature Electrolyzer (LTE) and a High Temperature Electrolyzer (HTE). The results indicate that statistical parameters intrinsic to the method of data extraction along with the thermal response time of the electrolyzers influence the hydrogen output. A maximum hydrogen production of 5.97 kTonne/year is generated by a 0.5 MW HTE when the electrical current is sent as a yearly average. Additionally the high thermal response time in a HTE causes a maximum change in the overall flowrate of 65.7% between the 4 scenarios when compared to 7.7% in the LTE. This evaluation of electrolyzer performance will aid investors in determining scenario specific application of P2G for maximizing hydrogen production.
Production of Advanced Fuels Through Integration of Biological, Thermo-Chemical and Power to Gas Technologies in a Circular Cascading Bio-Based System
Sep 2020
Publication
In the transition to a climate neutral future the transportation sector needs to be sustainably decarbonized. Producing advanced fuels (such as biomethane) and bio-based valorised products (such as pyrochar) may offer a solution to significantly reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with energy and agricultural circular economy systems. Biological and thermochemical bioenergy technologies together with power to gas (P2G) systems can generate green renewable gas which is essential to reduce the GHG footprint of industry. However each technology faces challenges with respect to sustainability and conversion efficiency. Here this study identifies an optimal pathway leading to a sustainable bioenergy system where the carbon released in the fuel is offset by the GHG savings of the circular bio-based system. It provides a state-of-the-art review of individual technologies and proposes a bespoke circular cascading bio-based system with anaerobic digestion as the key platform integrating electro-fuels via P2G systems and value-added pyrochar via pyrolysis of solid digestate. The mass and energy analysis suggests that a reduction of 11% in digestate mass flow with the production of pyrochar bio-oil and syngas and an increase of 70% in biomethane production with the utilization of curtailed or constrained electricity can be achieved in the proposed bio-based system enabling a 70% increase in net energy output as compared with a conventional biomethane system. However the carbon footprint of the electricity from which the hydrogen is sourced is shown to be a critical parameter in assessing the GHG balance of the bespoke system.
Investigation of the Multi-Point Injection of Green Hydrogen from Curtailed Renewable Power into a Gas Network
Nov 2020
Publication
Renewable electricity can be converted into hydrogen via electrolysis also known as power-to-H2 (P2H) which when injected in the gas network pipelines provides a potential solution for the storage and transport of this green energy. Because of the variable renewable electricity production the electricity end-user’s demand for “power when required” distribution and transmission power grid constrains the availability of renewable energy for P2H can be difficult to predict. The evaluation of any potential P2H investment while taking into account this consideration should also examine the effects of incorporating the produced green hydrogen in the gas network. Parameters including pipeline pressure drop flowrate velocity and most importantly composition and calorific content are crucial for gas network management. A simplified representation of the Irish gas transmission network is created and used as a case study to investigate the impact on gas network operation of hydrogen generated from curtailed wind power. The variability in wind speed and gas network demands that occur over a 24 h period and with network location are all incorporated into a case study to determine how the inclusion of green hydrogen will affect gas network parameters. This work demonstrates that when using only curtailed renewable electricity during a period with excess renewable power generation despite using multiple injection points significant variation in gas quality can occur in the gas network. Hydrogen concentrations of up to 15.8% occur which exceed the recommended permitted limits for the blending of hydrogen in a natural gas network. These results highlight the importance of modelling both the gas and electricity systems when investigating any potential P2H installation. It is concluded that for gas networks that decarbonise through the inclusion of blended hydrogen active management of gas quality is required for all but the smallest of installations.
Decarbonising City Bus Networks in Ireland with Renewable Hydrogen
Dec 2020
Publication
This paper presents techno-economic modelling results of a nationwide hydrogen fuel supply chain (HFSC) that includes renewable hydrogen production transportation and dispensing systems for fuel cell electric buses (FCEBs) in Ireland. Hydrogen is generated by electrolysers located at each existing Irish wind farm using curtailed or available wind electricity. Additional electricity is supplied by on-site photovoltaic (PV) arrays and stored using lithium-ion batteries. At each wind farm sizing of the electrolyser PV array and battery is optimised system design to obtain the minimum levelised cost of hydrogen (LCOH). Results show the average electrolyser capacity factor is 64% after the integration of wind farm-based electrolysers with PV arrays and batteries. A location-allocation algorithm in a geographic information system (GIS) environment optimises the distributed hydrogen supply chain from each wind farm to a hypothetical hydrogen refuelling station in the nearest city. Results show that hydrogen produced transported and dispensed using this system can meet the entire current bus fuel demand for all the studied cities at a potential LCOH of 5–10 €/kg by using available wind electricity. At this LCOH the future operational cost of FCEBs in Belfast Cork and Dublin can be competitive with public buses fuelled by diesel especially under carbon taxes more reflective of the environmental impact of fossil fuels.
What Will Fuel Transport Systems of the Future?
Nov 2011
Publication
This paper seeks to decry the notion of a single solution or “silver bullet” to replace petroleum products with renewable transport fuel. At different times different technological developments have been in vogue as the panacea for future transport needs: for quite some time hydrogen has been perceived as a transport fuel that would be all encompassing when the technology was mature. Liquid biofuels have gone from exalted to unsustainable in the last ten years. The present flavor of the month is the electric vehicle. This paper examines renewable transport fuels through a review of the literature and attempts to place an analytical perspective on a number of technologies.
Analysis of Wind to Hydrogen Production and Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage Systems for Novel Production of Chemical Energy Carriers
Apr 2022
Publication
As the offshore energy landscape transitions to renewable energy useful decommissioned or abandoned oil and gas infrastructure can be repurposed in the context of the circular economy. Oil and gas platforms for example offer opportunity for hydrogen (H2) production by desalination and electrolysis of sea water using offshore wind power. However as H2 storage and transport may prove challenging this study proposes to react this H2 with the carbon dioxide (CO2) stored in depleted reservoirs. Thus producing a more transportable energy carriers like methane or methanol in the reservoir. This paper presents a novel thermodynamic analysis of the Goldeneye reservoir in the North Sea in Aspen Plus. For Goldeneye which can store 30 Mt of CO2 at full capacity if connected to a 4.45 GW wind farm it has the potential to produce 2.10 Mt of methane annually and abate 4.51 Mt of CO2 from wind energy in the grid.
Long-Term Hydrogen Storage—A Case Study Exploring Pathways and Investments
Jan 2022
Publication
Future low-carbon systems with very high shares of variable renewable generation require complex models to optimise investments and operations which must capture high degrees of sector coupling contain high levels of operational and temporal detail and when considering seasonal storage be able to optimise both investments and operations over long durations. Standard energy system models often do not adequately address all these issues which are of great importance when considering investments in emerging energy carriers such as Hydrogen. An advanced energy system model of the Irish power system is built in SpineOpt which considers a number of future scenarios and explores different pathways to the wide-scale adoption of Hydrogen as a low-carbon energy carrier. The model contains a high degree of both temporal and operational detail sector coupling via Hydrogen is captured and the optimisation of both investments in and operation of large-scale underground Hydrogen storage is demonstrated. The results highlight the importance of model detail and demonstrate how over-investment in renewables occur when the flexibility needs of the system are not adequately captured. The case study shows that in 2030 investments in Hydrogen technologies are limited to scenarios with high fuel and carbon costs high levels of Hydrogen demand (in this case driven by heating demand facilitated by large Hydrogen networks) or when a breakthrough in electrolyser capital costs and efficiencies occurs. However high levels of investments in Hydrogen technologies occur by 2040 across all considered scenarios. As with the 2030 results the highest level of investments occur when demand for Hydrogen is high albeit at a significantly higher level than 2030 with increases in investments of large-scale electrolysers of 538%. Hydrogen fuelled compressed air energy storage emerges as a strong investment candidate across all scenarios facilitating cost effective power-to-Hydrogen-to-power conversions.
Development of a Viability Assessment Model for Hydrogen Production from Dedicated Offshore Wind Farms
Jun 2020
Publication
Dedicated offshore wind farms for hydrogen production are a promising option to unlock the full potential of offshore wind energy attain decarbonisation and energy security targets in electricity and other sectors and cope with grid expansion constraints. Current knowledge on these systems is limited particularly the economic aspects. Therefore a new integrated and analytical model for viability assessment of hydrogen production from dedicated offshore wind farms is developed in this paper. This includes the formulae for calculating wind power output electrolysis plant size and hydrogen production from time-varying wind speed. All the costs are projected to a specified time using both Discounted Payback (DPB) and Net Present Value (NPV) to consider the value of capital over time. A case study considers a hypothetical wind farm of 101.3 MW situated in a potential offshore wind development pipeline off the East Coast of Ireland. All the costs of the wind farm and the electrolysis plant are for 2030 based on reference costs in the literature. Proton exchange membrane electrolysers and underground storage of hydrogen are used. The analysis shows that the DPB and NPV flows for several scenarios of storage are in good agreement and that the viability model performs well. The offshore wind farm – hydrogen production system is found to be profitable in 2030 at a hydrogen price of €5/kg and underground storage capacities ranging from 2 days to 45 days of hydrogen production. The model is helpful for rapid assessment or optimisation of both economics and feasibility of dedicated offshore wind farm – hydrogen production systems.
Bayesian Inference and Uncertainty Quantification for Hydrogen-Enriched and Lean-Premixed Combustion Systems
May 2021
Publication
Development of probabilistic modelling tools to perform Bayesian inference and uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a challenging task for practical hydrogen-enriched and low-emission combustion systems due to the need to take into account simultaneously simulated fluid dynamics and detailed combustion chemistry. A large number of evaluations is required to calibrate models and estimate parameters using experimental data within the framework of Bayesian inference. This task is computationally prohibitive in high-fidelity and deterministic approaches such as large eddy simulation (LES) to design and optimize combustion systems. Therefore there is a need to develop methods that: (a) are suitable for Bayesian inference studies and (b) characterize a range of solutions based on the uncertainty of modelling parameters and input conditions. This paper aims to develop a computationally-efficient toolchain to address these issues for probabilistic modelling of NOx emission in hydrogen-enriched and lean-premixed combustion systems. A novel method is implemented into the toolchain using a chemical reactor network (CRN) model non-intrusive polynomial chaos expansion based on the point collocation method (NIPCE-PCM) and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. First a CRN model is generated for a combustion system burning hydrogen-enriched methane/air mixtures at high-pressure lean-premixed conditions to compute NOx emission. A set of metamodels is then developed using NIPCE-PCM as a computationally efficient alternative to the physics-based CRN model. These surrogate models and experimental data are then implemented in the MCMC method to perform a two-step Bayesian calibration to maximize the agreement between model predictions and measurements. The average standard deviations for the prediction of exit temperature and NOx emission are reduced by almost 90% using this method. The calibrated model then used with confidence for global sensitivity and reliability analysis studies which show that the volume of the main-flame zone is the most important parameter for NOx emission. The results show satisfactory performance for the developed toolchain to perform Bayesian inference and UQ studies enabling a robust and consistent process for designing and optimising low-emission combustion systems.
Effect of Hydrogen on the Tensile Behavior of Austenitic Stainless Steels 316L Produced by Laser-Powder Bed Fusion
Apr 2021
Publication
Hydrogen was doped in austenitic stainless steel (ASS) 316L tensile samples produced by the laser-powder bed fusion (L-PBF) technique. For this aim an electrochemical method was conducted under a high current density of 100 mA/cm2 for three days to examine its sustainability under extreme hydrogen environments at ambient temperatures. The chemical composition of the starting powders contained a high amount of Ni approximately 12.9 wt.% as a strong austenite stabilizer. The tensile tests disclosed that hydrogen charging caused a minor reduction in the elongation to failure (approximately 3.5% on average) and ultimate tensile strength (UTS; approximately 2.1% on average) of the samples using a low strain rate of 1.2 × 10−4 s−1. It was also found that an increase in the strain rate from 1.2 × 10−4 s−1 o 4.8 ×10−4 s−1 led to a reduction of approximately 3.6% on average for the elongation to failure and 1.7% on average for UTS in the pre-charged samples. No trace of martensite was detected in the X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis of the fractured samples thanks to the high Ni content which caused a minor reduction in UTS × uniform elongation (UE) (GPa%) after the H charging. Considerable surface tearing was observed for the pre-charged sample after the tensile deformation. Additionally some cracks were observed to be independent of the melt pool boundaries indicating that such boundaries cannot necessarily act as a suitable area for the crack propagation.
Evaluation of Heat Decarbonization Strategies and Their Impact on the Irish Gas Network
Dec 2021
Publication
Decarbonization of the heating sector is essential to meet the ambitious goals of the Paris Climate Agreement for 2050. However poorly insulated buildings and industrial processes with high and intermittent heating demand will still require traditional boilers that burn fuel to avoid excessive burden on electrical networks. Therefore it is important to assess the impact of residential commercial and industrial heat decarbonization strategies on the distribution and transmission gas networks. Using building energy models in EnergyPlus the progressive decarbonization of gas-fueled heating was investigated by increasing insulation in buildings and increasing the efficiency of gas boilers. Industrial heat decarbonization was evaluated through a progressive move to lowercarbon fuel sources using MATLAB. The results indicated a maximum decrease of 19.9% in natural gas utilization due to the buildings’ thermal retrofits. This coupled with a move toward the electrification of heat will reduce volumes of gas being transported through the distribution gas network. However the decarbonization of the industrial heat demand with hydrogen could result in up to a 380% increase in volumetric flow rate through the transmission network. A comparison between the decarbonization of domestic heating through gas and electrical heating is also carried out. The results indicated that gas networks can continue to play an essential role in the decarbonized energy systems of the future.
Decarbonising Ships, Planes and Trucks: An Analysis of Suitable Low-carbon Fuels for the Maritime, Aviation and Haulage Sectors
Jan 2021
Publication
The high environmental impacts of transport mean that there is an increasing interest in utilising low-carbon alternative energy carriers and powertrains within the sector. While electricity has been mooted as the energy carrier of choice for passenger vehicles as the mass and range of the vehicle increases electrification becomes more difficult. This paper reviews the shipping aviation and haulage sectors and a range of low-carbon energy carriers (electricity biofuels hydrogen and electro fuels) that can be used to decarbonise them. Energy carriers were assessed based on their energy density specific energy cost lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions and land-use. In terms of haulage current battery electric vehicles may be technically feasible however the specific energy of current battery technology reduces the payload capacity and range when compared to diesel. To alleviate these issues biomethane represents a mature technology with potential co-benefits while hydrogen is close to competitiveness but requires significant infrastructure. Energy density issues preclude the use of batteries in shipping which requires energy dense liquids or compressed gaseous fuels that allow for retrofits/current hull designs with methanol being particularly appropriate here. Future shipping may be achieved with ammonia or hydrogen but hull design will need to be changed significantly. Regulations and aircraft design mean that commercial aviation is dependant on drop-in jet fuels for the foreseeable future with power-to-liquid fuels being deemed the most suitable option due to the scales required. Fuel costs and a lack of refuelling infrastructure were identified as key barriers facing the uptake of alternatives with policy and financial incentives required to encourage the uptake of low-carbon fuels.
Operation of a Circular Economy, Energy, Environmental System at a Wastewater Treatment Plant
Oct 2022
Publication
Decarbonising economies and improving environment can be enhanced through circular economy energy and environmental systems integrating electricity water and gas utilities. Hydrogen production can facilitate intermittent renewable electricity through reduced curtailment of electricity in periods of over production. Positioning an electrolyser at a wastewater treatment plant with existing sludge digesters offers significant advantages over stand-alone facilities. This paper proposes co-locating electrolysis and biological methanation technologies at a wastewater treatment plant. Electrolysis can produce oxygen for use in pure or enhanced oxygen aeration offering a 40% reduction in emissions and power demand at the treatment facility. The hydrogen may be used in a novel biological methanation system upgrading carbon dioxide (CO2)in biogas from sludge digestion yielding a 54% increase in biomethane production. A 10MW electrolyser operating at 80% capacity would be capable of supplying the oxygen demand for a 426400 population equivalent wastewater treatment plant producing 8500 tDS/a of sludge. Digesting the sludge could generate 1409000 m 3 CH4/a and 776000 m 3 CO2/a. Upgrading the CO2 to methane would consume 22.2% of the electrolyser generated hydrogen and capture 1.534 ktCO2e/a. Hydrogen and methane are viable advanced transport fuels that can be utilised in decarbonising heavy transport. In the proposed circular economy energy and environment system sufficient fuel would be generated annually for 94 compressed biomethane gas (CBG) heavy goods vehicles (HGV) and 296 compressed hydrogen gas fuel cell (CHG) HGVs. Replacement of the equivalent number of diesel HGVs would offset approximately 16.1 ktCO2e/a.
Prospective Roles for Green Hydrogen as Part of Ireland's Decarbonisation Strategy
Mar 2023
Publication
In recent decades governments and society have been making increasing efforts to address and mitigate climate change by reducing emissions and decarbonising energy generation. Ireland has invested greatly in renewable electricity installing 4 GW of wind capacity since 2002 and has set assertive energy targets such as the aim to reduce overall emissions by 51% by 2030. Nonetheless considerable acceleration is needed in the decarbonisation of the country’s energy sector. This paper investigates the potential role hydrogen can play in Ireland’s energy transition proposing hydrogen as an energy vector and storage medium that may help the country achieve its targets and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Through literature review research and from industry insights the current state of the Irish energy sector is analysed and recommendations are made as to how where and when hydrogen can be integrated into the decarbonisation of Ireland’s electricity heating and transport. It is concluded that; with significant effort from the government policymakers industry and organisations; the effective deployment of hydrogen technologies in Ireland could avoid up to 6.1 MtCO2eq of emissions annually reflecting a trend observed in many other developed countries in which hydrogen plays an important part in the path to a low-carbon future. Prospective roles for hydrogen in Ireland include renewable energy storage and grid balancing through the deployment of Power-to-Gas systems a replacement for fossil natural gas in the gas grid for backup electricity production as well as industry and heating requirements and the use of hydrogen as a fuel for heavy transport.
Optimal Design of Photovoltaic, Biomass, Fuel Cell, Hydrogen Tank Units and Electrolyzer Hybrid System for a Remote Area in Egypt
Jul 2022
Publication
In this paper a new isolated hybrid system is simulated and analyzed to obtain the optimal sizing and meet the electricity demand with cost improvement for servicing a small remote area with a peak load of 420 kW. The major configuration of this hybrid system is Photovoltaic (PV) modules Biomass gasifier (BG) Electrolyzer units Hydrogen Tank units (HT) and Fuel Cell (FC) system. A recent optimization algorithm namely Mayfly Optimization Algorithm (MOA) is utilized to ensure that all load demand is met at the lowest energy cost (EC) and minimize the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the proposed system. The MOA is selected as it collects the main merits of swarm intelligence and evolutionary algorithms; hence it has good convergence characteristics. To ensure the superiority of the selected MOA the obtained results are compared with other well-known optimization algorithms namely Sooty Tern Optimization Algorithm (STOA) Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) and Sine Cosine Algorithm (SCA). The results reveal that the suggested MOA achieves the best system design achieving a stable convergence characteristic after 44 iterations. MOA yielded the best EC with 0.2106533 $/kWh the net present cost (NPC) with 6170134 $ the loss of power supply probability (LPSP) with 0.05993% and GHG with 792.534 t/y.
Batteries, Fuel Cells, or Engines? A Probabilistic Economic and Environmental Assessment of Electricity and Electrofuels for Heavy Goods Vehicles
Oct 2022
Publication
Uncertainty surrounding the total cost of ownership system costs and life cycle environmental impacts means that stakeholders may lack the required information to evaluate the risks of transitioning to low-carbon fuels and powertrains. This paper assesses the life cycle costs and well-to-wheel environmental impacts of using electricity and electrofuels in Heavy Good Vehicles (HGVs) whilst considering input parameter uncertainty. The complex relationship between electricity cost electrolyser capacity factor CO2 capture cost and electricity emissions intensity is assessed within a Monte Carlo based framework to identify scenarios where use of electricity or electrofuels in heavy goods vehicles makes economic and environmental sense. For vehicles with a range of less than 450 km battery electric vehicles achieve the lowest total cost of ownership for an electricity cost less than 100 €/MWh. For vehicles that require a range of up to 900 km hydrogen fuel cell vehicles represent the lowest long-term cost of abatement. Power-to-methane and power-to-liquid scenarios become economically competitive when low-cost electricity is available at high-capacity factors and CO2 capture costs for fuel synthesis are below 100 €/tCO2; these fuels may be more applicable to decarbonise shipping and aviation. Battery electric HGVs reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% compared to the diesel baseline with electricity emissions of 350 gCO2e/kWh. Electricity emissions less than 35 gCO2e/kWh are required for the power-to-methane and power-to-liquid scenarios to meet EU emissions savings criteria. High vehicle capital costs and a lack of widespread refuelling infrastructure may hinder initial uptake of low-carbon fuels and powertrains for HGVs.
A Flexible Techno-economic Analysis Tool for Regional Hydrogen Hubs - A Case Study for Ireland
Apr 2023
Publication
The increasing urgency with which climate change must be addressed has led to an unprecedented level of interest in hydrogen as a clean energy carrier. Much of the analysis of hydrogen until this point has focused predominantly on hydrogen production. This paper aims to address this by developing a flexible techno-economic analysis (TEA) tool that can be used to evaluate the potential of future scenarios where hydrogen is produced stored and distributed within a region. The tool takes a full year of hourly data for renewables availability and dispatch down (the sum of curtailment and constraint) wholesale electricity market prices and hydrogen demand as well as other user-defined inputs and sizes electrolyser capacity in order to minimise cost. The model is applied to a number of case studies on the island of Ireland which includes Ireland and Northern Ireland. For the scenarios analysed the overall LCOH ranges from V2.75e3.95/kgH2. Higher costs for scenarios without access to geological storage indicate the importance of cost-effective storage to allow flexible hydrogen production to reduce electricity costs whilst consistently meeting a set demand.
Green Hydrogen Blends with Natural Gas and Its Impact on the Gas Network
Oct 2022
Publication
With increasing shares of variable and uncertain renewable generation in many power systems there is an associated increase in the importance of energy storage to help balance supply and demand. Gas networks currently store and transport energy and they have the potential to play a vital role in longer-term renewable energy storage. Gas and electricity networks are becoming more integrated with quick-responding gas-fired power plants providing a significant backup source for renewable electricity in many systems. This study investigates Ireland’s gas network and operation when a variable green hydrogen input from excess wind power is blended with natural gas. How blended hydrogen impacts a gas network’s operational variables is also assessed by modelling a quasi-transient gas flow. The modelling approach incorporates gas density and a compressibility factor in addition to the gas network’s main pressure and flow rate characteristics. With an increasing concentration of green hydrogen up to 20% in the gas network the pipeline flow rate must be increased to compensate for reduced energy quality due to the lower energy density of the blended gas. Pressure drops across the gas pipeline have been investigated using different capacities of P2H from 18 MW to 124 MW. The results show significant potential for the gas network to store and transport renewable energy as hydrogen and improve renewable energy utilisation without upgrading the gas network infrastructure.
Cost Assessment of Alternative Fuels for Maritime Transportation in Ireland
Aug 2022
Publication
In this study we investigated the cost-effectiveness of four alternatives: Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) methanol green hydrogen and green ammonia for the case of top 20 most frequently calling ships to Irish ports in 2019 through the Net Present Value (NPV) methodology incorporating the benefits incurred through saved external carbon tax and conventional fuel costs. LNG had the highest NPV (€6166 million) followed by methanol (€1705 million) and green hydrogen (€319 million). Green ammonia utilisation (as a hydrogen carrier) looks inviable due to higher operational costs resulting from its excessive consumption (i.e. losses) during the cracking and purifying processes and its lower net calorific value. Green hydrogen remains the best option to meet future decarbonisation targets although a further reduction in its current fuel price (by 60%) or a significant increment in the proposed carbon tax rate (by 275%) will be required to improve its cost-competitiveness over LNG and methanol.
Deep Decarbonisation Pathways of the Energy System in Times of Unprecedented Uncertainty in the Energy Sector
May 2023
Publication
Unprecedented investments in clean energy technology are required for a net-zero carbon energy system before temperatures breach the Paris Agreement goals. By performing a Monte-Carlo Analysis with the detailed ETSAPTIAM Integrated Assessment Model and by generating 4000 scenarios of the world’s energy system climate and economy we find that the uncertainty surrounding technology costs resource potentials climate sensitivity and the level of decoupling between energy demands and economic growth influence the efficiency of climate policies and accentuate investment risks in clean energy technologies. Contrary to other studies relying on exploring the uncertainty space via model intercomparison we find that the CO2 emissions and CO2 prices vary convexly and nonlinearly with the discount rate and climate sensitivity over time. Accounting for this uncertainty is important for designing climate policies and carbon prices to accelerate the transition. In 70% of the scenarios a 1.5 ◦C temperature overshoot was within this decade calling for immediate policy action. Delaying this action by ten years may result in 2 ◦C mitigation costs being similar to those required to reach the 1.5 ◦C target if started today with an immediate peak in emissions a larger uncertainty in the medium-term horizon and a higher effort for net-zero emissions.
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