Norway

This report is part of DNV’s suite of Energy Transition Outlook publications for 2021. It focuses on how key energy transition technologies will develop compete and interact in the coming five years.

Debate and uncertainty about the energy transition tend to focus on what technology can and can’t do. All too often such discussions involve wishful thinking advocacy of a favoured technology or reference to outdated information. Through this report we bring insights derived from our daily work with the world’s leading energy players including producers transporters and end users. Each of the ten chapters that follow are written by our experts in the field – or in the case of maritime technologies on the ocean.

Because the pace of the transition is intensifying describing any given technology is like painting a fast-moving train. We have attempted to strike a balance between technical details and issues of safety efficiency cost and competitiveness. Transition technologies are deeply interlinked and in some cases interdependent; any discussion on green hydrogen for example must account for developments in renewable electricity hydrogen storage and transport systems and end-use technologies such as fuels cells.

Our selection of ten technologies is not exhaustive but each of these technologies is of particular interest for the pace and direction of the energy transition. They range from relatively mature technologies like solar PV to technologies like nuclear fusion which are some distance from commercialization but which have current R&D and prototyping worth watching. Together they cover most but not all key sectors. We describe expected developments for the coming five years which to a large extent will determine how the energy transition unfolds through to mid-century. As such this Technology Progress report is an essential supplement to our main Energy Transition Outlook forecast.

Our aim is to make an objective and realistic assessment of the status of these technologies and evaluate how they contribute to the energy transition ahead. Attention to progress in these technologies will be critical for anyone concerned with energy.

A radical decarbonization pathway for the Norwegian society towards 2050 is presented. The paper focuses on the role of hydrogen in the transition when present Norwegian petroleum export is gradually phased out. The study is in line with EU initiatives to secure cooperation opportunities with neighbouring countries to establish an international hydrogen market. Three analytical perspectives are combined. The first uses energy models to investigate the role of hydrogen in an energy and power market perspective without considering hydrogen export. The second uses an economic equilibrium model to examine the potential role of hydrogen export in value creation. The third analysis is a socio-technical case study on the drivers and barriers for hydrogen production in Norway. Main conclusions are that access to renewable power and hydrogen are prerequisites for decarbonization of transport and industrial sectors in Norway and that hydrogen is a key to maintain a high level of economic activity. Structural changes in the economy impacts of new technologies and key enablers and barriers in this transition are discussed.

Population growth and the expansion of industries have increased energy demand and the use of fossil fuels as an energy source resulting in release of greenhouse gases (GHG) and increased air pollution. Countries are therefore looking for alternatives to fossil fuels for energy generation. Using hydrogen as an energy carrier is one of the most promising alternatives to replace fossil fuels in electricity generation. It is therefore essential to know how hydrogen is produced. Hydrogen can be produced by splitting the water molecules in an electrolyser using the abondand water resources which are covering around ⅔ of the Earth's surface. Electrolysers however require high-quality water with conductivity in the range of 0.1–1 μS/cm. In January 2018 there were 184 offshore oil and gas rigs in the North Sea which may be excellent sites for hydrogen production from seawater. The hydrogen production process reported in this paper is based on a proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyser with an input flow rate of 300 L/h. A financially optimal system for producing demineralized water from seawater with conductivity in the range of 0.1–1 μS/cm as the input for electrolyser by WAVE (Water Application Value Engine) design software was studied. The costs of producing hydrogen using the optimised system was calculated to be US$3.51/kg H2. The best option for low-cost power generation using renewable resources such as photovoltaic (PV) devices wind turbines as well as electricity from the grid was assessed considering the location of the case considered. All calculations were based on assumption of existing cable from the grid to the offshore meaning that the cost of cables and distribution infrastructure were not considered. Models were created using HOMER Pro (Hybrid Optimisation of Multiple Energy Resources) software to optimise the microgrids and the distributed energy resources under the assumption of a nominal discount rate inflation rate project lifetime and CO2 tax in Norway. Eight different scenarios were examined using HOMER Pro and the main findings being as follows:<br/>The cost of producing water with quality required by the electrolyser is low compared with the cost of electricity for operation of the electrolyser and therefore has little effect on the total cost of hydrogen production (less than 1%).<br/>The optimal solution was shown to be electricity from the grid which has the lowest levelised cost of energy (LCOE) of the options considered. The hydrogen production cost using electricity from the grid was about US$ 5/kg H2.<br/>Grid based electricity resulted in the lowest hydrogen production cost even when costs for CO2 emissions in Norway that will start to apply in 2025 was considered being approximately US$7.7/kg H2.<br/>From economical point of view wind energy was found to be a more economical than solar.

In the literature different energy carriers are proposed in future long-distance hydrogen value chains. Hydrogen can be stored and transported in different forms e.g. as compressed dense-phase hydrogen liquefied hydrogen and in chemically bound forms as different chemical hydrides. Recently different high-level value chain studies have made extrapolative investigations and compared such options with respect to energy efficiency and cost. Three recent journal papers overlap as the liquid hydrogen option has been considered in all three studies. The studies are not fully aligned in terms of underlying assumptions and battery limits. A comparison reveals partly vast differences in results for chain energy efficiency for long-distance liquid hydrogen transport which are attributable to distinct differences in the set of assumptions. Our comparison pinpoints the boiloff ratio i.e. evaporation losses due to heat ingress in liquid hydrogen storage tanks as the main cause of the differences and this assumption is further discussed. A review of spherical tank size and attributed boiloff ratios is presented for existing tanks of different vintage as well as for recently proposed designs. Furthermore the prospect for further extension of tanks size and reduction of boiloff ratio is discussed with a complementary discussion about the use of economic assumptions in extrapolative and predictive studies. Finally we discuss the impact of battery limits in hydrogen value chain studies and pinpoint knowledge needs and the need for a detailed bottom-up approach as a prerequisite for improving the understanding for pros and cons of the different hydrogen energy carriers.

Development of hydrogen facilities such as hydrogen refuelling stations (HRS) at scale is a fine balance between economy and safety where an optimal solution would both prevent showstoppers due to cost of increased safety measures and prevent showstoppers due to hydrogen accidents. A detailed Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) methodology is presented where the aim is to establish the total risk of the facility and use it to find the right level of safety features such as blast walls and layout. With upscaled hydrogen facilities comes larger area footprints and more potential leak points. These effects will cause increased possible consequence in terms of vapour cloud explosions and increased leak frequencies. Both effects contributing negative to the total risk of the hydrogen facility. At the same time as the number of such facilities is increasing rapidly the frequency of incidents can also increase. A risk-based approach is employed where inherently safe solutions is investigated and cost efficient and acceptable solutions can be established. The present QRA uses well established tools such as SAFETI FLACS and Express which are fitted for hydrogen risks. By using the established Explosion Risk Analysis tool Express the explosion risk inside the station can be found. By using CFD tools actively one can point at physical risk drivers such as equipment layout that can minimize gas cloud build-up on the station. The explosion simulations are further used to find the effects of e.g. blast wall on the pressures affecting on people on the other side of the wall. This is used together with the results from the SAFETI analysis to develop risk contours around the facility. Current standardized safety distances are discussed by considering the effects of scaling and risk drivers on the safety distances. The methodology can be used to develop certain requirement for how hydrogen facilities should be built inherently safe and in cost-efficient ways.

The overall ambition of the study has been to assess the commercial and operational viability of alternative marine fuels based on review existing academic and industry literature. The approach assesses how well six alternative fuels perform compared to LNG fuel on a set of 11 key parameters. Conventional fuels are not covered in this study however 2020 compliant fuels (HFO+scrubber and low sulphur fuels are included in the conclusion for comparative purposes.

Rising climate change ambitions require large-scale clean hydrogen production in the near term. “Blue” hydrogen from conventional steam methane reforming (SMR) with pre-combustion CO2 capture can fulfil this role. This study therefore presents techno-economic assessments of a range of SMR process configurations to minimize hydrogen production costs. Results showed that pre-combustion capture can avoid up to 80% of CO2 emissions cheaply at 35 €/ton but the final 20% of CO2 capture is much more expensive at a marginal CO2 avoidance cost around 150 €/ton. Thus post-combustion CO2 capture should be a better solution for avoiding the final 20% of CO2. Furthermore an advanced heat integration scheme that recovers most of the steam condensation enthalpy before the CO2 capture unit can reduce hydrogen production costs by about 6%. Two hybrid hydrogen production options were also assessed. First a “blue-green” hydrogen plant that uses clean electricity to heat the reformer achieved similar hydrogen production costs to the pure blue configuration. Second a “blue turquoise” configuration that replaces the pre-reformer with molten salt pyrolysis for converting higher hydrocarbons to a pure carbon product can significantly reduce costs if carbon has a similar value to hydrogen. In conclusion conventional pre-combustion CO2 capture from SMR is confirmed as a good solution for kickstarting the hydrogen economy and it can be tailored to various market conditions with respect to CO2 electricity and pure carbon prices.

The declining cost of renewable power has engendered growing interest in leveraging this power for the production of chemicals and synthetic fuels. Here renewable power is added to the gas-to-liquid (GTL) process through Fischer–Tropsch (FT) synthesis in order to increase process efficiency and reduce CO2 emissions. Accordingly two realistic configurations are considered which differ primarily in the syngas preparation step. In the first configuration solid oxide steam electrolysis cells (SOEC) in combination with an autothermal reformer (ATR) are used to produce synthesis gas with the right composition while in the second configuration an electrically-heated steam methane reformer (E-SMR) is utilized for syngas production. The results support the idea of adding power to the GTL process mainly by increased process efficiencies and reduced process emissions. Assuming renewable power is available the process emissions would be 200 and 400 gCO2 L1 syncrude for the first and second configurations respectively. Configuration 1 and 2 show 8 and 4 times less emission per liter syncrude produced respectively compared to a GTL plant without H2 addition with a process emission of 1570 gCO2 L1 syncrude. By studying the two designs based on FT production carbon efficiency and FT catalyst volume a better alternative is to add renewable power to the SOEC (configuration 1) rather than using it in an E-SMR (configuration 2). Given an electricity price of $100/MW h and natural gas price of 5 $ per GJ FT syncrude and H2 can be produced at a cost between $15/MW h and $16/MW h. These designs are considered to better utilize the available carbon resources and thus expedite the transition to a low-carbon economy

Liquefaction of hydrogen is a promising technology for transporting large quantities of hydrogen across long distances. A key challenge is the high power consumption. In this work we discuss refrigeration strategies that give minimum entropy production/exergy destruction in a plate-fin heat exchanger that cools the hydrogen from 47.8 K to 29.3 K. Two reference cases are studied; one where the feed stream enters at 20 bar and one where it enters at 80 bar. Catalyst in the hot layers speeds up the conversion of ortho-to para-hydrogen. Optimal control theory is used to formulate a minimization problem where the objective function is the total entropy production the control variable is the temperature of the refrigerant and the constrains are the balance equations for energy mass and momentum in the hot layers. The optimal refrigeration strategies give a reduction of the total entropy production of 8.7% in the 20-bar case and 4.3% in the 80-bar case. The overall heat transfer coefficient and duty is higher in the 20 bar case which compensates for the increase in entropy production due to a thermal mismatch that is avoided in the 80 bar case. This leads the second law efficiency of the 20 bar case (91%) to be similar to the 80 bar case (89%). We demonstrate that equipartition of the entropy production and equipartition of the thermal driving force are both excellent design principles for the process unit considered with total entropy productions deviating only 0.2% and 0.5% from the state of minimum entropy production. Equipartition of the thermal driving force i.e. a constant difference between the inverse temperatures of the hot and cold layers represents a particularly simple guideline that works remarkably well. We find that both heat transfer and the spin-isomer reaction contribute significantly to the entropy production throughout the length of the process unit. Unlike previous examples in the literature the process unit considered in this work is not characterized by a “reaction mode” at the inlet followed by a “heat transfer mode”. Therefore it does not follow a highway in state space i.e. a band that is particularly dense with energy efficient solutions. By artificially increasing the spin-isomer conversion rate the highway appears when the conversion rate becomes sufficiently high.

This paper summarises the results from a blind-prediction study for models developed for estimating the consequences of vented hydrogen deflagrations. The work is part of the project Improving hydrogen safety for energy applications through pre-normative research on vented deflagrations (HySEA). The scenarios selected for the blind-prediction entailed vented explosions with homogeneous hydrogen-air mixtures in a 20-foot ISO container. The test program included two configurations and six experiments i.e. three repeated tests for each scenario. The comparison between experimental results and model predictions reveals reasonable agreement for some of the models and significant discrepancies for others. It is foreseen that the first blind-prediction study in the HySEA project will motivate developers to improve their models and to update guidelines for users of the models.