Sustainable Power System Transition Pathways: Regional Decarbonisation and Resource Conservation Aided by Small Modular Reactors

Clean energy technologies offer promising pathways for low-carbon transitions, yet their feasibility remains uncertain, particularly in rapidly developing regions. This study develops a Factorial Multi-Stochastic Optimization-driven Equilibrium (FMOE) model to assess the economic and environmental impacts of clean power deployment. Using Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) in Guangdong, China, as a case study, the model reveals that SMRs can reduce system costs and alleviate GDP losses, supporting provincial-level Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). If offshore wind capital costs fall to 40 % of SMRs’, SMR deployment may no longer be necessary after 2030. Otherwise, SMRs could supply 22 % of capacity by 2040. The FMOE model provides a robust, adaptable framework for evaluating emerging technologies under uncertainty and supports sustainable power planning across diverse regional contexts. This study offers valuable insights into the resource and economic implications of clean energy strategies, contributing to global carbon neutrality and efficient energy system design.