Applications & Pathways
Certification Gap Analysis for Normal-Category and Large Hydrogen-Powered Airplanes
Mar 2025
Publication
The transition to hydrogen as an aviation fuel as outlined in current decarbonization roadmaps is expected to result in the entry into service of hydrogen-powered aircraft in 2035. To achieve this evolution certification regulations are key enablers. Due to the disruptive nature of hydrogen aircraft technologies and their associated hazards it is essential to assess the maturity of the existing regulatory framework for certification to ensure its availability when manufacturers apply for aircraft certification. This paper presents the work conducted under the Clean Aviation CONCERTO project to advance certification readiness by comprehensively identifying gaps in the current European regulations. Generic methodologies were developed for regulatory gap and risk analyses and applied to a hydrogen turbine aircraft with non-propulsive fuel cells as the APU. The gap analysis conducted on certification specifications for large and normal-category airplanes as well as engines confirmed the overall adequacy of many existing requirements. However important gaps exist to appropriately address hydrogen hazards particularly concerning fire and explosion hydrogen storage and fuel systems crashworthiness and occupant survivability. The paper concludes by identifying critical areas for certification and highlighting the need for complementary hydrogen phenomenology data which are key to guiding future research and regulatory efforts for certification readiness maturation.
Hydrogen-based Technologies towards Energy-resilient Low-carbon Buildings: Opportunities and Challenges Review
Oct 2025
Publication
Towards low-carbon buildings with resilient energy performance renewable energy resources and flexible energy assets play key roles in managing the electrical and heat demands. Hydrogen-based systems represent a promising solution through renewable hydrogen production and long-term storage. This paper systematically reviews 35 peer-reviewed studies (1990–2024) on hydrogen integration in buildings focusing on demand-side management (DSM) optimization methods and system performance. The review covers the environmental impacts feasibility and economic viability of integrating different hydrogen systems for supplying energy. Across critical reviews case studies hydrogen supplementary systems achieved CO2 reductions between 12 % and 87 % operational cost decreases of up to 40 % and efficiency gains exceeding 80 %. Payback periods varied widely between 9 and 20 years demonstrating high investment costs. Key gaps include limited field validation economic feasibility and public acceptance of hydrogen homes. One key area for future investigation is optimizing energy flows across production storage and demand particularly in Vehicle-to-Building (V2B) applications. This review paper highlights opportunities especially the potential of hydrogen system in decarbonization of buildings by long-term energy storage barriers and policy needs for implementing hydrogen technologies in grid-connected and remote areas to enhance sustainable and resilient buildings.
Novel Sustainability Assessment Methodology with Alternative Use Impact Accounting: Application on Use of Hydrogen in Transportation Sector
Sep 2025
Publication
This study presents the application of a new sustainability assessment methodology. It aims to improve the information that can be obtained from a sustainability assessment including the concept of alternative usage impact. To prove the effectiveness of this methodology three different hydrogen production methodologies considering its consumption in transportation sector is the case of study. The methodologies considered are Steam Methane Reform using natural gas Proton Exchange Membrane electrolysis one using grid electricity and the other study case using central tower solar power plant electricity from the PS10 facility. While separately green hydrogen is the technology with less environmental impact when considering the full system and the impact of the green hydrogen on the rest of the resources the integration of green hydrogen technology is not the most environmentally sustainable. Similar behavior is observed in the economic and technical fields. The different accounting of combinations of technologies and the impact on the resource which is not used provides the sustainability performance of the overall system. These results show that in order to account the all impacts taking place in a energy technology integration its impact on the rest of resources and uses provide more valuable information.
Hydrogen Energy Systems for Decarbonizing Smart Cities and Industrial Applications: A Review
Oct 2025
Publication
Hydrogen is increasingly recognized as a key energy vector for achieving deep decarbonization across urban and industrial sectors. Supporting global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) it is essential to understand the multi-sectoral role of the hydrogen value chain spanning production storage and end-use applications with particular emphasis on smart city systems and industrial processes. Green hydrogen production technologies including alkaline water electrolysis (AWE) proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis anion exchange membrane (AEM) electrolysis and solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOECs) are evaluated in terms of efficiency scalability and integration potential. Storage pathways are examined across physical storage (compressed gas cryo-compressed and liquid hydrogen) material-based storage (solid-state absorption in metal hydrides and chemical carriers such as LOHCs and ammonia) and geological storage (salt caverns depleted gas reservoirs and deep saline aquifers) highlighting their suitability for urban and industrial contexts. In the smart city domain hydrogen is analyzed as an enabler of zero-emission transportation low-carbon residential and commercial heating and renewable-integrated smart grids with long-duration storage capabilities. System-level studies demonstrate that coordinated integration of these applications can deliver higher overall energy efficiency deeper reductions in life-cycle GHG emissions and improved resilience of urban energy systems compared with sector-specific approaches. Policy frameworks safety standards and digitalization strategies are reviewed to illustrate how hydrogen infrastructure can be embedded into interconnected urban energy systems. Furthermore industrial applications focus on hydrogen’s potential to decarbonize energy-intensive processes and enable sector coupling between electricity heat and manufacturing. The environmental implications of hydrogen deployment are also considered including resource efficiency life-cycle emissions and ecosystem impacts. In contrast to reviews addressing isolated aspects of hydrogen technologies this study synthesizes technological infrastructural and policy dimensions integrating insights from over 400 studies to highlight the multifaceted role of hydrogen in sustainable urban development and industrial decarbonization and the added benefits achievable through coordinated cross-sector deployment strategies.
Multi-time Scaling Optimization for Electric Station Considering Uncertainties of Renewable Energy and EVs
Oct 2025
Publication
The development of new energy vehicles particularly electric vehicles (EVs) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) represents a strategic initiative to address climate change and foster sustainable development. Integrating PV with hydrogen production into hybrid electricity-hydrogen energy stations enhances land and energy efficiency but introduces scheduling challenges due to uncertainties. A multi-time scale scheduling framework which includes day-ahead and intraday optimization is established using fuzzy chance-constrained programming to minimize costs while considering the uncertainties of PV generation and charging/refueling demand. Correspondingly trapezoidal membership function and triangular membership function are used for the fuzzy quantification of day-ahead and intraday predictions of photovoltaic power generation and load demands. The system achieves 29.37% lower carbon emissions and 17.73% reduced annualized costs compared to day-ahead-only scheduling. This is enabled by real-time tracking of PV/load fluctuations and optimized electrolyzer/fuel cell operations maximizing renewable energy utilization. The proposed multi-time scale framework dynamically addresses short-term fluctuations in PV generation and load demand induced by weather variability and temporal dynamics. By characterizing PV/load uncertainties through fuzzy methods it enables formulation of chance-constrained programming models for operational risk quantification. The confidence level – reflecting decision-makers’ reliability expectations – progressively increases with refined temporal resolution balancing economic efficiency and operational reliability.
Development and Validation of an All-metal Scroll Pump for PEM Fuel Cell Hydrogen Recirculation
Oct 2025
Publication
Hydrogen recirculation is essential for maintaining fuel efficiency and durability in Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) systems particularly in automotive range extender applications. This study presents the design simulation and experimental validation of a dry all-metal scroll pump developed for hydrogen recirculation in a 5 kW PEMFC system. The pump operates without oil or polymer seals offering long-term compatibility with dry hydrogen. Two prototypes were fabricated: SP1 incorporating PTFE-bronze tip seals and SP2 a fully metallic seal-free design. A fully deterministic one-dimensional (1D) model was developed to predict thermodynamic performance including leakage and heat transfer effects and validated against experimental results. SP1 achieved higher flow rates due to reduced axial leakage but experienced elevated friction and temperature. In contrast SP2 provided improved thermal stability and lower friction with slightly reduced flow performance. The pump demonstrated a maximum flow rate of 50 l/min and an isentropic efficiency of 82.2 % at 2.5 bara outlet pressure. Simulated performance showed strong agreement with experimental results with deviations under 5 %. The findings highlight the critical role of thermal management and manufacturing tolerances in dry scroll pump design. The seal-free liquid-cooled scroll architecture presents a promising solution for compact oil-free hydrogen recirculation in low-power fuel cell systems.
Providing the Transport Sector in Europe with Fossil Free Energy - A Model-based Analysis under Consideration of the MENA Region
Mar 2025
Publication
For reaching the European greenhouse gas emission targets the phase-in of alternative technologies and energy carriers is crucial for all sectors. For the transport sector synthetic fuels are–next to electromobility–a promising option especially for long-distance shipping and air transport. Within this context the import of synthetic fuels from the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region seems attractive due to low costs for renewable electricity in this region and low transport costs of synthetic fuels at the same time. Against this background this paper analyzes the role of the MENA region in meeting the future synthetic fuel demand in Europe using a cost-optimizing energy supply model. In this model the production storage and transport of electricity hydrogen and synthetic fuels by various technologies in both European and MENA countries in the period up to 2050 are explicitly modeled. Thereby different scenarios are analyzed to depict regional differences in investment risks: a base scenario that does not take into account regional differences in investments risks and three risk scenarios with different developments of regional investment risks. Sensitivity analyses are also carried out to derive conclusions about the robustness of results. Results show that meeting the future synthetic fuel demand in Europe to a large extent by imports from the MENA region can be an attractive option from an economic point of view. If investment risks are incorporated however lower import quotas of synthetic fuels are economically attractive for Europe: the higher generation costs are outweighed by the lower investments risks in Europe to a certain extent. Thereby investment risks outweigh other factors such as transport distance or renewable electricity generation costs in terms of exporting MENA regions and a synthetic fuel import is especially attractive from MENA countries with low investment risks. Concluding within this paper detailed export relations between MENA and EU considering investment risks were modeled for the first time. These model results should be complemented by a more in-depth analysis of the MENA countries including evaluating opportunities for local value chain development sustainability concerns (including social factors) and optimal site selection.
Hydrogen Cargo Bikes as a Data-driven Solution for Last-mile Decarbonization
Oct 2025
Publication
The growing demand for low-emission urban freight has intensified efficiency challenges in lastmile delivery especially in dense city centres. This study assesses hydrogen-powered cargo bikes as a scalable zero-emission alternative to fossil fuel vans and battery-electric cargo bikes. Using real-world logistics data from Rome we apply simulation models including Monte Carlo cost analysis Artificial Intelligence driven routing K-means station placement and fleet scaling. Results show hydrogen bikes deliver 15% more parcels daily than electric counterparts reduce refuelling detours by 31.4% and lower per-trip fuel use by 32%. They can cut up to 120 metric tons of CO2 annually per 100-bike fleet. While battery-electric cargo bikes remain optimal for short trips hydrogen bikes offer superior uptime range and rapid refuelling—ideal for highfrequency mid-distance logistics. Under supportive pricing and infrastructure hydrogen cargo bikes represent a resilient and sustainable solution for decarbonizing last-mile delivery in city areas.
Ammonia–Hydrogen Dual-Fuel Combustion: Strategies for Optimizing Performance and Reducing Emissions in Internal Combustion Engines
Jun 2025
Publication
The urgent need to mitigate climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions has accelerated the search for sustainable and scalable energy carriers. Among the different alternatives ammonia stands out as a promising carbon-free fuel thanks to its high energy density efficient storage and compatibility with existing infrastructure. Moreover it can be produced through sustainable green processes. However its application in internal combustion engines is limited by several challenges including low reactivity narrow flammability limits and high ignition energy. These factors can compromise combustion efficiency and contribute to increased unburned ammonia emissions. To address these limitations hydrogen has emerged as a complementary fuel in dual-fuel configurations with ammonia. Hydrogen’s high reactivity enhances flame stability ignition characteristics and combustion efficiency while reducing emissions of unburned ammonia. This review examines the current status of dual-fuel ammonia and hydrogen combustion strategies in internal combustion engines and summarizes the experimental results. It highlights the potential of dual-fuel systems to optimize engine performance and minimize emissions. It identifies key challenges knowledge gaps and future research directions to support the development and widespread adoption of ammonia–hydrogen dual-fuel technologies.
Techno-Economic Evaluation of a Floating Photovoltaic-Powered Green Hydrogen for FCEV for Different Köppen Climates
Sep 2025
Publication
The escalating global demand for electricity coupled with environmental concerns and economic considerations has driven the exploration of alternative energy sources creating competition for land with other sectors. A comprehensive analysis of a 10 MW floating photovoltaic (FPV) system deployed across different Köppen climate zones along with techno-economic analysis involves evaluating technical efficiency and economic viability. Technical parameters are assessed using PVsyst simulation and HOMER Pro. While economic analysis considers return on investment net present value internal rate of return and payback period. Results indicate that temperate and dry zones exhibit significant electricity generation potential from an FPV. The study outlines the payback period with the lowest being 5.7 years emphasizing the system’s environmental benefits by reducing water loss in the form of evaporation. The system is further integrated with hydrogen generation while estimating the number of cars that can be refueled at each location with the highest amount of hydrogen production being 292817 kg/year refueling more than 100 cars per day. This leads to an LCOH of GBP 2.84/kg for 20 years. Additionally the comparison across different Koppen climate zones suggests that even with the high soiling losses dry climate has substantial potential; producing up to 18829587 kWh/year of electricity and 292817 kg/year of hydrogen. However factors such as high inflation can reduce the return on investment to as low as 13.8%. The integration of FPV with hydropower plants is suggested for enhanced power generation reaffirming its potential to contribute to a sustainable energy future while addressing the UN’s SDG7 SDG9 SDG13 and SDG15.
Hydrogen Pathways for Green Fertilizer Production: A Comparative Techno-economic Study of Electrolysis and Plasmalysis
Sep 2025
Publication
Decarbonizing ammonia production is critical to meeting global climate targets in agriculture. This study evaluates two hydrogen pathways plasmalysis and electrolysis at Ontario’s Courtright Complex using detailed techno-economic modeling. The natural gas–based plasma system achieves the lowest hydrogen cost ($1.35/kg) but incurs high annual fuel expenses ($297.7 M/y) and shows strong sensitivity to natural gas prices. Electrolysis powered by 110 MW PV 1700 MW wind 60 MW biomass 95 MWh battery storage and a 2.0 GW electrolyzer produces hydrogen at $2.07/kg with lower fuel costs ($29.7 M/y) and significant grid interaction (2.67 TWh/y imports and 1.89 TWh/y exports) enhancing operational flexibility. Over a 15-year horizon both pathways deliver substantial CO2 reductions (plasmalysis: 27000 kt; electrolysis: 26045 kt). Extending plant lifetimes from 10 to 30 y reduces the levelized cost of hydrogen from $2.25 to $1.91/kg in the plasmalysis case and from $1.52 to $1.18/kg in the electrolysis case while increasing overall net present cost. Although electrolysis requires higher capital investment ($5.53 B compared with $1.79 B) it demonstrates resilience to fuel price volatility and provides additional grid revenue. In contrast plasmalysis offers near-term cost advantages but remains dependent on fossil gas underscoring its role as a transitional rather than fully green option for ammonia decarbonization.
Determining Pilot Ignition Delay in Dual-Fuel Medium-Speed Marine Engines Using Methanol or Hydrogen
Jun 2025
Publication
Dual-fuel engines are a way of transitioning the marine sector to carbon-neutral fuels like hydrogen and methanol. For the development of these engines accurate simulation of the combustion process is needed for which calculating the pilot’s ignition delay is essential. The present work investigates novel methodologies for calculating this. This involves the use of chemical kinetic schemes to compute the ignition delay for various operating conditions. Machine learning techniques are used to train models on these data sets. A neural network model is then implemented in a dual-fuel combustion model to calculate the ignition delay time and is compared using a lookup table or a correlation. The numerical results are compared with experimental data from a dual-fuel medium-speed marine engine operating with hydrogen or methanol from which the method with best accuracy and fastest calculation is selected.
Combining Babool Wood-derived Producer Gas and Hydrogen with Biodiesel as Efficienct Strategies for Dual-fuel Diesel Engine in Advancing Sustainable Energy
Sep 2025
Publication
The present investigation aims to provide a comparative assessment of using hydrogen-enriched wood waste-derived producer gas (PG) for a dual-fuel diesel engine fueled with a 20% Jatropha biodiesel/80% diesel blend (BD20) with the traditional mode. The experiments were conducted at 23°bTDC of injection timing 240 bar of injection pressure 17.5:1 of compression ratio and 1500 rpm of engine speed under various engine loads. Gas carburetor induction (GCI) port injection (PI) and inlet manifold injection (IMI) methods were used to supply H2-enriched PG while B20 is directly injected into the combustion chamber. Among all the combinations the IMI method provided the highest brake thermal efficiency of 30.91% the lowest CO emission of 0.08% and smoke opacity discharge of 49.26 HSU while NOx emission reached 1744.32 ppm which was lower than that of the PI mode. Furthermore the IMI method recorded the highest heat release rate of 91.17 J/°CA and peak cylinder pressure of 83.29 bar reflecting superior combustion quality. Finally using the IMI method for H2-enriched PG in dual-fuel diesel engines could improve combustion efficiency reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve fuel economy showing that the combination of BD20 with H2-enriched PG offers a cleaner more sustainable and economically viable technology.
Comparative Techno-economic Optimization of Microgrid Configurations Using Hybrid Battery-hydrogen Storage: NEOM Case Study, Saudi Arabia
Sep 2025
Publication
Renewable energy systems are at the core of global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to combat climate change. Focusing on the role of energy storage in enhancing dependability and efficiency this paper investigates the design and optimization of a completely sustainable hybrid energy system. Furthermore hybrid storage systems have been used to evaluate their viability and cost-benefits. Examined under a 100% renewable energy microgrid framework three setup configurations are as follows: (1) photovoltaic (PV) and Battery Storage System (BSS) (2) Hybrid PV/Wind Turbine (WT)/BSS and (3) Integrated PV/WT/BSS/Electrolyzer/ Hydrogen Tank/Fuel Cell (FC). Using its geographical solar irradiance and wind speed data this paper inspires on an industrial community in Neom Saudi Arabia. HOMER software evaluates technical and economic aspects net present cost (NPC) levelized cost of energy (COE) and operating costs. The results indicate that the PV/ BSS configuration offers the most sustainable solution with a net present cost (NPC) of $2.42M and a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of $0.112/kWh achieving zero emissions. However it has lower reliability as validated by the provided LPSP. In contrast the PV/WT/BSS/Elec/FC system with a higher NPC of $2.30M and LCOE of $0.106/kWh provides improved energy dependability. The PV/WT/BSS system with an NPC of $2.11M and LCOE of $0.0968/kWh offers a slightly lower cost but does not provide the same level of reliability. The surplus energy has been implemented for hydrogen production. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of uncertainties in renewable resource availability and economic parameters. The results demonstrate significant variability in system performance across different scenarios
Human Toxicity Potential: A Lifecycle Evaluation in Current and Future Frameworks for Hydrogen-Based and Battery Electric Buses in the European Union
Sep 2025
Publication
In recent years governments have promoted the shift to low-emission transport systems with electric and hydrogen vehicles emerging as key alternatives for greener urban mobility. Evaluating zero- or near-zero tailpipe solutions requires a Lifecycle Assessment (LCA) approach accounting for emissions from energy production components and vehicle manufacturing. Such studies mainly address Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions while other pollutants are often overlooked. This study compares the Human Toxicity Potential (HTP) of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (H2ICEVs) and hybrid H2ICEVs for public transport in the European Union. Current and future scenarios (2024 2030 2050) are examined considering evolving energy mixes and manufacturing impacts. Results underline that BEVs are characterized by the highest HTP in 2024 and that this trend is maintained even in future scenarios. As for hydrogen-based powertrains they show lower HTPs similar among them. This work underlines that current efforts must be intensified especially for BEVs to further limit harmful emissions from the mobility sector.
Learning from Arctic Microgrids: Cost and Resiliency Projections for Renewable Energy Expansion with Hydrogen and Battery Storage
Jun 2025
Publication
Electricity in rural Alaska is provided by more than 200 standalone microgrid systems powered predominantly by diesel generators. Incorporating renewable energy generation and storage to these systems can reduce their reliance on costly imported fuel and improve sustainability; however uncertainty remains about optimal grid architectures to minimize cost including how and when to incorporate long-duration energy storage. This study implements a novel multi-pronged approach to assess the techno-economic feasibility of future energy pathways in the community of Kotzebue which has already successfully deployed solar photovoltaics wind turbines and battery storage systems. Using real community load resource and generation data we develop a series of comparison models using the HOMER Pro software tool to evaluate microgrid architectures to meet over 90% of the annual community electricity demand with renewable generation considering both battery and hydrogen energy storage. We find that near-term planned capacity expansions in the community could enable over 50% renewable generation and reduce the total cost of energy. Additional build-outs to reach 75% renewable generation are shown to be competitive with current costs but further capacity expansion is not currently economical. We additionally include a cost sensitivity analysis and a storage capacity sizing assessment that suggest hydrogen storage may be economically viable if battery costs increase but large-scale seasonal storage via hydrogen is currently unlikely to be cost-effective nor practical for the region considered. While these findings are based on data and community priorities in Kotzebue we expect this approach to be relevant to many communities in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic regions working to improve energy reliability sustainability and security.
An Optimal Approach to the Pre-Implementation Value Assessment of Smart Energy Systems; A 'Green' Hydrogen Case Study
Aug 2025
Publication
Smart energy systems can be used to generate additional financial value by providing flexibility to the electricity network. It is fundamental to the effective economic implementation of these systems that an assessment can be made in advance to determine available value in comparison with any additional costs. The basic premise is that there is a distinct advantage in using similar algorithms to an actual smart energy system implementation for value assessment and that this is practical in this context which is confirmed in comparison with simpler modelling methods. Analysis has been undertaken using a ‘green’ hydrogen system case study of the impact of various simplifications to the value assessment algorithms used to speed computation time without sacrificing the decisionmaking potential of the output. The results indicate that for localised energy systems with a small number of controllable assets an rolling horizon optimisation model with a significant degree of temporal and component complexity is viable for planning phase value assessment requirements and would be a similar level of complexity to a computationally suitable implementation algorithm for actual asset control decision making.
Method for Multi-criteria and Mission-specific Component Dimensioning for Heavy-duty Fuel Cell Trucks
May 2025
Publication
Heavy-duty fuel cell trucks are a promising approach to reduce the CO2 emissions of logistic fleets. Due to their higher powertrain energy density in comparison to battery-electric trucks they are especially suited for long-haul applications while transporting high payloads. Despite these great advantages the fleet integration of such vehicles is made difficult due to high costs and limited performance in thermally critical environmental conditions. These challenges are addressed in the European Union (EU) funded project ESCALATE which aims to demonstrate high-efficiency zero-emission heavy-duty vehicle (zHDV) powertrains that provide a range of 800 km without refueling or recharging. Powertrain components and their corresponding thermal components account for a large part of the production costs. For vehicle users higher costs are only acceptable if a significantly higher benefit can be achieved. Therefore it is important to size these components for the actual vehicle mission to avoid oversizing. In this paper an optimization method which determines the optimum component sizes for a given mission scenario under consideration of multiple criteria (e.g. costs performance and range) is presented.
Off-grid Shore-to-ship Power System Optimisation with a Hydrogen-in-loop Buffering Scheme Drien by Hydrokinetic Wave-wind Energy
Oct 2025
Publication
The environmentally vulnerable Arctic’s harsh climate and remote geography demand innovative green energy solutions. This study introduces a hybrid off-grid system that integrates wave and wind energy with hydrogenelectricity conversion technologies. Designed to power cruise ships at berth fuel-cell hybrid electric vehicles and residential heating the system tackles the challenge of energy variability through dual optimization schemes. External optimization identifies a cost-effective architecture achieving a net present cost of $1.1M and a levelized hydrogen cost of $20.1/kg without a fuel cell. Internal optimizations employing multi-objective game theory and HYBRID algorithms further improve performance reducing the net present cost to $666K with a levelized hydrogen cost of $13.74/kg (game theory) and $729K with a levelized hydrogen of $15.63/kg (HYBRID). A key innovation is hydrokinetic turbines which streamline the design by cutting cumulative cash flow requirements by $470K from $1.85M to $1.38M. This approach prioritizes intelligent energy management shifting reliance from variable wind and wave inputs to optimized electrolyzer and battery operations. These results underscore the feasibility of cost-effective and scalable renewable energy systems and provide a compelling blueprint for addressing energy challenges in remote and resource-constrained environments.
Market Potential of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles in Beijing: A Spatial Agent-based Model Approach
Oct 2025
Publication
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) are vital for advancing the hydrogen economy and decarbonizing the transportation sector. However research on HFCV market dynamics in passenger vehicles is limited especially incorporating both market competition from other vehicle types and the comprehensive supply–demand market dynamics. To bridge this gap our study proposed a spatial agent-based model to simulate the HFCV market evolution with the aim of finding effective strategies and policy implications for breaking the diffusion dilemma of the HFCV market. We calibrated the model using survey data (N=1065) collected from Beijing and evaluated its performance across five “What-If” scenarios. Results indicate that HFCVs and hydrogen stations are difficult to penetrate under the current conditions despite HFCV applicants and market share growing by 37.5% and 15.63% respectively. Consumer perceptions on cost social and environment have greater impacts on HFCV proliferation than facility availability. The HFCV purchase subsidy has much greater impact than the technological learning rate greatly accelerating its market emergence timing. Finally HFCVs’ diffusion significantly influences the market of battery electric vehicles.
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