Policy & Socio-Economics

This report delves into the European renewable hydrogen supply chain to offer recommendations for Europe to become a leader in the hydrogen economy.

China as both a major energy consumer and the largest carbon emitter globally views carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) hydrogen production as a crucial and innovative technology for achieving its dual carbon goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. The development of such technologies requires strong policy guidance making the quantification of policy pathways essential for understanding their effectiveness. This study employs a data-driven framewor integrating LDA topic modeling and the PMC-TE index to analyze the regional and temporal dynamics of CCUS-hydrogen development policies. The research identifies 16 optimal policy topics highlighting gaps in policy design and implementation. The analysis uncovers significant fragmentation in policy pathways with supply-side policies receiving disproportionate attention while demand-side and environmental policies remain under-supported. Regional disparities are evident with wealthier provinces showing higher policy engagement compared to underdeveloped regions. The study also reveals that policy evolution has been largely reactive emphasizing the need for a more proactive and consistent long-term strategy. These findings provide valuable insights for creating more balanced integrated and regionally tailored policy approaches to effectively drive CCUS-hydrogen development in China.

Recently worldwide the attention being paid to hydrogen and its derivatives as alternative carbon-free (or low-carbon) options for the electricity sector the transport sector and the industry sector has increased. Several projects in the field of low-emission hydrogen production (particularly electrolysis-based green hydrogen) have either been constructed or analyzed for their feasibility. Despite the great ambitions announced by some nations with respect to becoming hubs for hydrogen production and export some quantification of the levels at which hydrogen and its derived products are expected to penetrate the global energy system and its various demand sectors would be useful in order to judge the practicality and likelihood of these ambitions and future targets. The current study aims to summarize some of the expectations of the level at which hydrogen and its derivatives could spread into the global economy under two possible future scenarios. The first future scenario corresponds to a business-as-usual (BAU) pathway where the world proceeds with the same existing policies and targets related to emissions and low-carbon energy transition. This forms a lower bound for the level of the role of hydrogen and its penetration into the global energy system. The second future scenario corresponds to an emission-conscious pathway where governments cooperate to implement the changes necessary to decarbonize the economy by 2050 in order to achieve net-zero emissions of carbon dioxide (carbon neutrality) and thus limit the rise in the global mean surface temperature to 1.5 ◦C by 2100 (compared to pre-industrial periods). This forms an upper bound for the level of the role of hydrogen and its penetration into the global energy system. The study utilizes the latest release of the annual comprehensive report WEO (World Energy Outlook—edition year 2023 the 26th edition) of the IEA (International Energy Agency) as well as the latest release of the annual comprehensive report WETO (World Energy Transitions Outlook—edition year 2023 the third edition) of the IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency). For the IEA-WEO report the business-as-usual situation is STEPS (Stated “Energy” Policies Scenario) and the emissions-conscious situation is NZE (Net-Zero Emissions by 2050). For the IRENA-WETO report the business-asusual situation is the PES (Planned Energy Scenario) and the emissions-conscious situation is the 1.5◦C scenario. Through the results presented here it becomes possible to infer a realistic range for the production and utilization of hydrogen and its derivatives in 2030 and 2050. In addition the study enables the divergence between the models used in WEO and WETO to be estimated by identifying the different predictions for similar variables under similar conditions. The study covers miscellaneous variables related to energy and emissions other than hydrogen which are helpful in establishing a good view of how the world may look in 2030 and 2050. Some barriers (such as the uncompetitive levelized cost of electrolysis-based green hydrogen) and drivers (such as the German H2Global initiative) for the hydrogen economy are also discussed. The study finds that the large-scale utilization of hydrogen or its derivatives as a source of energy is highly uncertain and it may be reached slowly given more than two decades to mature. Despite this electrolysis-based green hydrogen is expected to dominate the global hydrogen economy with the annual global production of electrolysis-based green hydrogen expected to increase from 0 million tonnes in 2021 to between 22 million tonnes and 327 million tonnes (with electrolyzer capacity exceeding 5 terawatts) in 2050 depending on the commitment of policymakers toward decarbonization and energy transitions.

Green hydrogen stands as a promising clean energy carrier with potential net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. However different system-level configurations for green hydrogen production yield different levels of efficiency cost and maturity necessitating a comprehensive assessment. This review evaluates the components of hydrogen production plants from technical and economic perspectives. The study examines six renewable energy sources—solar photovoltaics solar thermal wind biomass hydro and geothermal—alongside three types of electrolyzers (alkaline proton exchange membrane and solid oxide electrolyzer cells) and five hydrogen storage methods (compressed hydrogen liquid hydrogen metal hydrides ammonia and liquid organic hydrogen carriers). A comprehensive assessment of 90 potential system configurations is conducted across five key performance indicators: the overall system cost efficiency emissions production scale and technological maturity. The most cost-effective configurations involve solar photovoltaics or wind turbines combined with alkaline electrolyzers and compressed hydrogen storage. For enhanced system efficiency geothermal sources or biomass paired with solid oxide electrolyzer cells utilizing waste heat show significant promise. The top technologically mature systems feature combinations of solar photovoltaics wind turbines geothermal or hydroelectric power with alkaline electrolyzers using compressed hydrogen or ammonia storage. The highest hydrogen production scales are observed in systems with solar PV wind or hydro power paired with alkaline or PEM electrolyzers and ammonia storage. Configurations using hydro geothermal wind or solar thermal energy sources paired with alkaline electrolyzers and compressed hydrogen or liquid organic hydrogen carriers yield the lowest life cycle GHG emissions. These insights provide valuable decision-making tools for researchers business developers and policymakers guiding the optimization of system efficiency and the reduction of system costs.

Promoting the development of China’s hydrogen energy industry is crucial for achieving green energy transition. However existing research lacks systematic studies on the spatial layout of the hydrogen industry chain. This study constructed a comprehensive theoretical framework encompassing hardware infrastructure software systems and soft power. Using multi-source heterogeneous data GIS analysis and NVivo text coding methods the current regional layout and challenges of China’s hydrogen infrastructure industry chain were systematically evaluated. The findings determined that economically developed eastern regions lead in infrastructure and soft power while central and western regions leverage their resource and manufacturing advantages. Major challenges include regional imbalances in hardware infrastructure uneven distribution of soft power and misalignment between software systems and actual needs. Analysis of the “14th Five-Year Plan” of various regions elucidated deep insights into the diversity of local hydrogen energy development strategies identifying five types of hydrogen cities: resource-advantaged market-oriented regionally collaborative innovation-driven and policy-supported. Accordingly strategies to enhance industry chain synergy clarify city roles and optimize regional ecosystems were proposed. It is recommended to integrate hydrogen infrastructure with urban planning and incorporate environmental impact assessments into spatial optimization decisions. This study provides a systematic analytical framework and progressive policy recommendations for the efficient and green layout of China’s hydrogen infrastructure offering important implications for the sustainable development of the hydrogen industry and other rapidly developing economies.

Low-carbon hydrogen plays a key role in European industrial decarbonization strategies. This work investigates the cost-optimal planning of European low-carbon hydrogen supply chains in the near term (2025–2035) comparing several hydrogen production technologies and considering multiple spatial scales. We focus on mature hydrogen production technologies: steam methane reforming of natural gas biomethane reforming biomass gasification and water electrolysis. The analysis includes carbon capture and storage for natural gas and biomass-derived hydrogen. We formulate and solve a linear optimization model that determines the costoptimal type size and location of hydrogen production and transport technologies in compliance with selected carbon emission targets including the EU fit for 55 target and an ambitious net-zero emissions target for 2035. Existing steam methane reforming capacities are considered and optimal carbon and biomass networks are designed. Findings identify biomass-based hydrogen production as the most cost-efficient hydrogen technology. Carbon capture and storage is installed to achieve net-zero carbon emissions while electrolysis remains costdisadvantageous and is deployed on a limited scale across all considered sensitivity scenarios. Our analysis highlights the importance of spatial resolution revealing that national perspectives underestimate costs by neglecting domestic transport needs and regional resource constraints emphasizing the necessity for highly decarbonized infrastructure designs aligned with renewable resource availabilities.

Renewable hydrogen is a flexible and versatile energy vector that can facilitate the decarbonization of several sectors and simultaneously ease the stress on the electricity grids that are currently being saturated with intermittent renewable power. But hydrogen technologies are currently facing limitations related to existing infrastructure limitations available markets as well as production storage and distribution costs. These challenges will be gradually addressed through the establishment operation and scaling-up of hydrogen valleys. Hydrogen valleys are an important stepping stone towards the full-scale implementation of the hydrogen economy with the target to foster sustainability lower carbon emissions and derisk the associated hydrogen technologies. These hydrogen ecosystems integrate renewable energy sources efficient hydrogen production storage transportation technologies as well as diverse end-users within a defined geographical region. This study offers an overview of the hydrogen valleys concept analyzing the critical aspects of their design and the key segments that constitute the framework of a hydrogen valley. А holistic overview of the key characteristics of a hydrogen valley is provided whereas an overview of key on-going hydrogen valley projects is presented. This work underscores the importance of addressing challenges related to the integration of renewable energy sources into electricity grids as well as scale-up challenges associated with economic and market conditions society awareness and political decision-making.

The high potential in renewable energy sources (RES) and the availability of strategic minerals for green hydrogen technologies place Africa in a promising position for the development of a climate-compatible economy leveraging on hydrogen. This study reviews the potential hydrogen value chain in Africa considering production and final uses while addressing perspectives on policies possible infrastructures and facilities for hydrogen logistics. Through scientific studies research and searching in relevant repositories this review features the collection analysis of technical data and georeferenced information about key aspects of the hydrogen value chain. Detailed maps and technical data for gas transport infrastructure and liquefaction terminals in the continent are reported to inform and elaborate findings about readiness for hydrogen trading and domestic use in Africa. Specific maps and technical data have been also collected for the identification of potential hydrogen offtakers focusing on individual industrial installations to produce iron and steel chemicals and oil refineries. Finally georeferenced data are presented for main road and railway corridors as well as for most important African ports as further end-use and logistic platforms. Beyond technical information this study collects and discusses more recent perspectives about policies and implementation initiatives specifically addressing hydrogen production logistics and final use also introducing potential criticalities associated with environmental and social impacts.

Green hydrogen is expected to play a vital role in decarbonizing the energy system in Europe. However large-scale deployment of green hydrogen has associated potential trade-offs in terms of climate and other environmental impacts. This study aims to shed light on a comprehensive sustainability assessment of this large-scale green hydrogen deployment based on the EMPIRE energy system modeling compared with other decarbonization paths. Process-based Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is applied and connected with the output of the energy system model revealing 45% extra climate impact caused by the dedicated 50% extra renewable infrastructure to deliver green hydrogen for the demand in the sectors of industry and transport in Europe towards 2050. Whereas the analysis shows that green hydrogen eventually wins on the climate impact within four designed scenarios (with green hydrogen with blue hydrogen without green hydrogen and baseline) mainly compensated by its clean usage and renewable electricity supply. On the other hand green hydrogen has a lower performance in other environmental impacts including human toxicity ecotoxicity mineral use land use and water depletion. Furthermore a monetary valuation of Life Cycle Impact (LCI) is estimated to aggregate 13 categories of environmental impacts between different technologies. Results indicate that the total monetized LCI cost of green hydrogen production is relatively lower than that of blue hydrogen. In overview a large-scale green hydrogen deployment potentially shifts the environmental pressure from climate and fossil resource use to human health mineral resource use and ecosystem damage due to its higher material consumption of the infrastructure.

Hydrogen is gaining importance to decarbonize the energy system and tackle the climate crisis. This exploratory study analyzes three focus groups with representatives from relevant organizations in a Northern German region that has unique beneficial characteristics for the transition to a hydrogen economy. Based upon this data (1) a category system of innovation adoption barriers for hydrogen technologies is developed (2) decision levels associated with the barriers are identified (3) detailed insights on how decision levels contribute to the adoption barriers are provided and (4) the barriers are evaluated in terms of their importance. Our analysis adds to existing literature by focusing on short-term barriers and exploring relevant decision levels and their associated adoption barriers. Our main results comprise the following: flaws in the funding system complex approval procedures lack of networks and high costs contribute to hydrogen adoption barriers. The (Sub-)State level is relevant for the uptake of the hydrogen economy. Regional entities have leeway to foster the hydrogen transition especially with respect to the distribution infrastructure. Funding policy technological suitability investment and operating costs and the availability of distribution infrastructure and technical components are highly important adoption barriers that alone can impede the transition to a hydrogen economy.