Policy & Socio-Economics

For low-carbon hydrogen to become a viable decarbonization solution the creation of a robust and effective market is essential. This paper examines the applicability of market reforms from the renewable energy natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sectors with a focus on pricing mechanisms business models and infrastructure access to facilitate hydrogen market development. Applying the Structure-Conduct-PerformanceRegulation (SCP-R) framework and informed by stakeholder insights we identify critical enablers for advancing the hydrogen market formation. Our analysis highlights the importance of innovative pricing strategies and regulatory measures incentivizing investment and managing risks. Establishing a market reference price for low-carbon hydrogen — akin to benchmarks in the natural gas and LNG sectors—is critical for ensuring transparency predictability and regional adaptability in trade. Additionally customized business models are also needed to mitigate volume risks for producers. Government interventions such as offtake agreements and the development of hydrogen hubs are indispensable for fostering competition and driving decarbonization.

Mobility has been a prominent target for proponents of the hydrogen economy. Given the complexities involved in the mobility value chain actors hoping to participate in this nascent market must overcome a range of challenges relating to the availability of vehicles the co-procurement of supporting infrastructure a favourable regulatory environment and a supportive community among others. In this paper we present a state-of-play account of the nascent hydrogen mobility market in Victoria Australia drawing on data from a workshop (N ¼ 15) and follow-up interviews (n ¼ 10). We interpret findings through a socio-technical framework to understand the ways in which fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs)dand hydrogen technologies more generallydare conceptualised by different stakeholder groups and how these conceptualisations mediate engagement in this unfolding market. Findings reveal prevailing efforts to make sense of the FCEV market during a period of considerable institutional ambiguity. Discourses embed particular worldviews of FCEV technologies themselves in addition to the envisioned roles the resultant products and services will play in broader environmental and energy transition narratives. Efforts to bring together stakeholders representing different areas of the FCEV market should be seen as important enablers of success for market participants.

Hydrogen is being increasingly integrated into the international trade system as a clean and flexible energy carrier motivated by the global energy transition and carbon neutrality objectives. The rapid expansion of the global hydrogen trade network has simultaneously exposed several sustainability challenges including a centralized structure overdependence on key countries and limited resilience to external disruptions. Based on this we develop a risk propagation model that incorporates the absorption capacity of nodes to simulate the propagation of supply shortage risks within the global hydrogen trade network. Furthermore we propose a composite sustainability index constructed from structural economic and environmental resilience indicators enabling a systematic assessment of the network’s sustainable development capacity under external shock scenarios. Findings indicate the following: (1) The global hydrogen trade network is undergoing a structural shift from a Western Europe-dominated unipolar configuration to a more polycentric pattern. Countries such as China and Singapore are emerging as key hubs linking Eurasian regions with trade relationships among nations becoming increasingly dense and diversified. (2) Although supply shortage shocks trigger structural disturbances economic losses and risks of carbon rebound their impacts are largely concentrated in a limited number of hub countries with relatively limited disruption to the overall sustainability of the system. (3) Countries exhibit significant heterogeneity in structural economic and environmental resilience. Risk propagation demonstrates an uneven pattern characterized by hub-induced disruptions chain-like transmission and localized clustering. Accordingly policy recommendations are proposed including the establishment of a polycentric coordination mechanism the enhancement of regional emergency coordination mechanisms and the advancement of differentiated capacity-building efforts.

To address the issue of excessive pessimism caused by demand and supply uncertainties in the green hydrogen supply chain this study develops a two-tier green hydrogen supply chain model comprising upstream hydrogen production stations and downstream hydrogen refueling stations. This research work investigates optimal ordering and production strategies under stochastic demand and supply conditions. Additionally option contracts are introduced to share the risks associated with the stochastic output of green hydrogen. This study shows the following: (1) Under decentralized decision-making the optimal ordering quantity when the hydrogen refueling station is excessively pessimistic is not necessarily lower than the optimal ordering quantity when it is in a rational state and hydrogen production stations will only operate when the degree of excessive pessimism is relatively low. (2) The initial option ordering quantity is always larger than the minimum execution quantity under the option contract; higher first-order option prices and lower second-order option prices can help to increase the initial option ordering quantity. (3) The option contract is effective in circumventing the negative impact of excessive pessimism at hydrogen production stations on planned production quantities. This study addresses the gap in the existing research regarding excessively pessimistic behaviors and the application of option contracts within the green hydrogen supply chain providing both theoretical insights and practical guidance for decision-making optimization. This advancement further promotes the sustainable development of the green hydrogen industry.

Hydrogen is a pivotal driver of the green economy and clean energy transition and global efforts are underway to scale up hydrogen technology and its adoption. This study explores China’s hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (HFCV) city clusters policy launched in 2021 involving five clusters consisting of 44 cities to boost the country’s hydrogen economy. Drawing on cluster theory collaborative network literature and evolutionary economic geography we investigate the connections between hydrogen city clusters and historical geographically based and industrial-based clusters as well as the formation of collaborative networks among cities. By comparing these heterogeneous city networks our findings highlight the competitive edge of HFCV city clusters that capitalize on resource and innovation complementarity instead of relying solely on geographical positioning or pre-existing collaborations. The results of the Exponential Random Graph Analysis reveal that existing clusters economic strength of cities and their strategic positions within the hydrogen industrial chain significantly shape collaborative networks. This study contributes to cluster policy research by examining how China’s HFCV city clusters integrate historical advantages while fostering synergies with less connected cities offering valuable insights into inter-city collaboration and strategies for sustainable industrial development.

The report provides a detailed examination of the biofuel sector and advanced biofuel sector within the European Union (EU) focusing on its economic environmental and technological dimensions. The report is an update of the CETO 2023 report. The EU is highlighted as the central point of view with specific references to EU Member States showcasing their roles in the sector. The report is essential for understanding the multifaceted role of advanced biofuels in the EU's strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance energy security. The report underscores the EU's commitment through various policies and directives such as the Renewable Energy Directive and its amendment which set sustainability criteria and define advanced biofuels. The report details the EU's leadership in scientific publications and high-value patents in the advanced biofuel sector. It gives insights into the current state of innovation and the areas where the EU is leading. The report delves into technological advancements and challenges in the biofuel sector. It discusses various advanced biofuel technologies currently being developed and commercialised. The report covers the trends in installed capacity and production of biofuels within the EU providing a comparative analysis with other regions. It details the production capacities and operational plants for bioethanol and biodiesel. The report provides comprehensive data on the economic contributions of the advanced biofuel sector to the EU's economy. The report details the sector's impact on GDP and employment highlighting the significant contributions from operation and maintenance feedstock supply construction and equipment manufacturing. The report emphasises the importance of continued investment technological development and international collaboration to ensure the advanced biofuel sector's growth and sustainability.

Introduction: The transition towards electrolysis-produced hydrogen in refineries and chemical industries is expected to have a potent impact on the local energy system of which these industries are part. In this study three urban areas with hydrogen-intense industries are studied regarding how the energy system configuration is affected if the expected future hydrogen demand is met in each node individually as compared to forming a “Hydrogen Valley” in which a pipeline can be used to trade hydrogen between the nodes.<br/>Method: A technoeconomic mixed-integer linear optimization model is used to study the investments in and dispatch of the included technologies with an hourly time resolution while minimizing the total system cost. Four cases are investigated based on the availability of offshore wind power and the possibility to invest in a pipeline.<br/>Results: The results show that investments in a pipeline reduces by 4%–7% the total system cost of meeting the demands for electricity heating and hydrogen in the cases investigated. Furthermore investments in a pipeline result in greater utilization of local variable renewable electricity resources as compared to the cases without the possibility to invest in a pipeline.<br/>Discussion: The different characteristics of the local energy systems of the three nodes in local availability of variable renewable electricity grid capacity and available storage options compared to local demands of electricity heating and hydrogen are found to be the driving forces for forming a Hydrogen Valley.

Access to renewable energy is vital for rural development and climate change mitigation. The intermittency of renewable sources necessitates efficient energy storage especially in off-grid applications. This study evaluates the technical economic and environmental performance of an off-grid hybrid system for the rural settlement of Soma Turkey. Using HOMER Pro 3.14.2 software a system consisting of solar wind battery and hydrogen components was modeled under four scenarios with Cyclic Charging (CC) and Load Following (LF) control strategies for optimization. Life cycle assessment (LCA) and hydrogen leakage impacts were calculated separately through MATLAB R2019b analysis in accordance with ISO 14040 and ISO 14044 standards. Scenario 1 (PV + wind + battery + H2) offered the most balanced solution with a net present cost (NPC) of USD 297419 with a cost of electricity (COE) of USD 0.340/kWh. Scenario 2 without batteries increased hydrogen consumption despite a similar COE. Scenario 3 with wind only achieved the lowest hydrogen consumption and the highest efficiency. In Scenario 4 hydrogen consumption decreased with battery reintegration but COE increased. Specific CO2 emissions ranged between 36–45 gCO2-eq/kWh across scenarios. Results indicate that the control strategy and component selection strongly influence performance and that hydrogen-based hybrid systems offer a sustainable solution in rural areas.

Introduction: Several cities in Malaysia have established plans to reduce their CO2 emissions in addition to Malaysia submitting a Nationally Determined Contribution to reduce its carbon intensity (against GDP) by 45% in 2030 compared to 2005. Meeting these emissions reduction goals will require ajoint effort between governments industries and corporations at different scales and across sectors.<br/>Methods: In collaboration with national and sub-national stakeholders we developed and used a global integrated assessment model to explore emissions mitigation pathways in Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur. Guided by current climate action plans we created a suite of scenarios to reflect uncertainties in policy ambition level of adoption and implementation for reaching carbon neutrality. Through iterative engagement with all parties we refined the scenarios and focus of the analysis to best meet the stakeholders’ needs.<br/>Results: We found that Malaysia can reduce its carbon intensity and reach carbon neutrality by 2050 and that action in Kuala Lumpur can play a significant role. Decarbonization of the power sector paired with extensive electrification energy efficiency improvements in buildings transportation and industry and the use of advanced technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture and storage will be Major drivers to mitigate emissions with carbon dioxide removal strategies being key to eliminate residual emissions.<br/>Discussion: Our results suggest a hopeful future for Malaysia’s ability to meet its climate goals recognizing that there may be technological social and financial challenges along the way. This study highlights the participatory process in which stakeholders contributed to the development of the model and guided the analysis as well as insights into Malaysia’s decarbonization potential and the role of multilevel governance.

This study examines the development of hydrogen energy technologies across continents focusing on the concentration of expertise in hydrogen production within specific cross-border alliances and individual countries. The evolution of green hydrogen is assessed through an analysis of 297 hydrogen projects in Europe and Australia. The implementation of projects is constrained by high production costs limiting the price competitiveness of the final product. The analysis reveals that electrolysis is the predominant technology employed in hydrogen production with mobility being the primary area of application. The study includes a forecast indicating a significant decrease in auction prices for green hydrogen products due to economies of scale. Learning curve modeling confirms an expected reduction in auction prices by a factor of 2.5–3.7 over the next decade. However delays in project implementation and the relocation of 49 projects across Australia. The results obtained indicate the existence of barriers implementation of hydrogen technologies. Although green hydrogen demonstrates strong potential for growth and scalability realizing all announced projects will require enhanced policy support.