Policy & Socio-Economics

Climate policy will inevitably lead to the stranding of fossil energy assets such as production and transport assets for coal oil and natural gas. Resourcerich developing countries are particularly aected as they have a higher risk of asset stranding due to strong fossil dependencies and wider societal consequences beyond revenue disruption. However there is only little academic and political awareness of the challenge to manage the asset stranding in these countries as research on transition risk like asset stranding is still in its infancy. We provide a research framework to identify wider societal consequences of fossil asset stranding. We apply it to a case study of Nigeria. Analyzing dierent policy measures we argue that compensation payments come with implementation challenges. Instead of one policy alone to address asset stranding a problem-oriented mix of policies is needed. Renewable hydrogen and just energy transition partnerships can be a contribution to economic development and SDGs. However they can only unfold their potential if fair benefit sharing and an improvement to the typical institutional problems in resource-rich countries such as the lack of rule of law are achieved. We conclude with presenting a future research agenda for the global community and acade

By passing the delegated acts supplementing the revised Renewable Energy Directive the European Commission has recently set a regulatory benchmark for the classifcation of green hydrogen in the European Union. Controversial reactions to the restricted power purchase for electrolyser operation refect the need for more clarity about the efects of the delegated acts on the cost and the renewable characteristics of green hydrogen. To resolve this controversy we compare diferent power purchase scenarios considering major uncertainty factors such as electricity prices and the availability of renewables in various European locations. We show that the permission for unrestricted electricity mix usage does not necessarily lead to an emission intensity increase partially debilitating concerns by the European Commission and could notably decrease green hydrogen production cost. Furthermore our results indicate that the transitional regulations adopted to support a green hydrogen production ramp-up can result in similar cost reductions and ensure high renewable electricity usage.

Opportunity for future green hydrogen development in Nepal comes with enduse infrastructural challenges. The heavy reliance of industries on fossil fuels (63.4%) despite the abundance of hydroelectricity poses an additional challenge to the green transition of Nepal. The presented work aims to study the possibility of storing and utilizing spilled hydroelectricity due to runoff rivers as a compatible alternative to imported petroleum fuels. This is achieved by converting green hydrogen from water electrolysis and carbon dioxide from carbon capture of hard-to-abate industries into synthetic methane for heating applications via the Sabatier process. An economy-of-scale study was conducted to identify the optimal scale for the reference case (Industries in Makwanpur District Nepal) for establishing the Synthetic Natural Gas (SNG) production industry. The technoeconomic assessment was carried out for pilot scale and reference scale production unit individually. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were performed to study the project profitability and the sensitivity of the parameters influencing the feasibility of the production plant. The reference scale for the production of Synthetic Natural Gas was determined to be 40 Tons Per Day (TPD) with a total capital investment of around 72.15 Million USD. Electricity was identified as the most sensitive parameter affecting the levelized cost of production (LCOP). The 40 TPD plant was found to be price competitive to LPG when electricity price is subsidized below 3.55 NPR/unit (2.7 c/unit) from 12 NPR/unit (9.2 c/unit). In the case of the 2 TPD plant for it to be profitable the price of electricity must be subsidized to well below 2 NPR/kWh. The study concludes that the possibility of SNG production in Nepal is profitable and price-competitive at large scales and at the same time limited by the low round efficiency due to conversion losses. Additionally it was observed that highly favorable conditions driven by government policies would be required for the pilot-scale SNG project to be feasible.

Global climate change caused by geological processes is one of the main causes of the 5 global mass extinctions in geological history. Human industrialization activities have caused serious damage to the ecosystem the greenhouse effect of atmospheric CO2 has intensified and the living environment is facing threats and challenges. Carbon neutrality is the active action and common goal of mankind in the face of the climate change crisis therefore probing into its theoretical and technological connotation scientific and technological innovation system has far-reaching significance and broad prospects. Studies indicate that (1) Carbon neutrality reflects the theoretical connotations of “energy science” and “carbon neutrality science” including technical connotations of carbon emission reduction zero carbon emission negative carbon emission and carbon trading. (2) Carbon neutrality spawns new industries such as carbon industry centering on CO2 capture utilization and storage (CCUS or CO2 capture and storage CCS) and hydrogen industry centering on green hydrogen. “Gray carbon” and “black carbon” are the two application attributes of CO2. “Carbonþ” “Carbon” and “Carbon¼” are three carbon-neutral products and technologies. (3) China faces three major challenges in achieving the goal of carbon neutrality: first energy transition is large in scale and the cycle is short; Second there are many problems in the process of energy transition such as security uncertainties economic utilization and unpredictable disruptive technologies; Third after transition we may face new key techno-logical “bottlenecks” and “broken chain” of key mineral resources. (4) Based on current knowledge to predict the top 10 disruptive technologies and industries in the energy field: underground coal gasification in-situ conversion process of medium and low-mature shale oil CCUS/CCS hydrogen energy and fuel cells bio-photovoltaic power generation space-based solar power generation optical storage smart micro-grid super energy storage controllable nuclear fusion wisdom energy Internet. Five strategic projects will be implemented including energy conservation and efficiency improvement carbon reduction and sequestration scientific and technological innovation emergency reserve and policy support. (5) In the future different types of energy will have different orientations. Coal will play the role of ensuring the national energy strategy “reserve” and “guarantee the bottom line”. Petroleum will play the role of ensuring national energy security “urgent need” and the “cornerstone” of raw materials in people's livelihood. Natural gas will play the role in ensuring national energy “safety” and “best partner” of new energy. New energy will play the role in ensuring the “replacement” and “main force” of the national energy strategy. (6) Carbon neutrality is a major practice of the green industrial revolution carbon reduction energy revolution and ecological technology revolution which will bring new and profound changes to human society the environment and the economy. (7) Carbon neutrality needs to follow the four principles of “disruptive breakthroughs in technology guarantee of energy security realization of economic feasibility and controllable social stability”. We should rely on technological innovation and management changes to ensure the realization of national energy “independence” and carbon neutrality goal and make China's contribution to the construction of a livable earth green development and ecological civilization.

Transforming Europe into a climate neutral economy and society by 2050 requires extraordinary efforts and the mobilisation of all sectors and economic actors coupled with all the creative and brain power one can imagine. Each sector has to fundamentally rethink the way it operates to ensure it can be transformed towards this new net-zero paradigm without jeopardising other environmental and societal objectives both within the EU and globally. Given the scale of the transformation ahead our ability to meet climate neutrality targets directly depends on our ability to innovate. In this context Research & Innovation programmes have a key role to play and it is crucial to ensure they are fit for purpose and well equipped to support the next wave of breakthrough innovations that will be required to achieve climate neutrality in the EU and globally by 2050. The objective of this study is to contribute to these strategic planning discussions by not only identifying high-risk and high-impact climate mitigation solutions but most importantly look beyond individual solutions and consider how systemic interactions of climate change mitigation approaches can be integrated in the development of R&I agendas.

Hydrogen is experiencing a resurgence in energy transition debates. Before representing a solution however the existing hydrogen economy is still a climate change headache: over 99 % of production depends on fossil fuels oil refining accounts for 42 % of demand and its transportation is intertwined with fossil infrastructure like natural gas pipelines. This article investigates the path-dependent dynamics shaping the hydrogen economy and its interconnections with the oil and gas industry. It draws on the global production networks (GPN) approach and political economy research to provide a comprehensive review of current and prospective enduses of hydrogen modes of transport networks of industrial actors and state strategies along the major production facilities and holders of intellectual property rights. The results presented in this article suggest that the superimposition of private agendas may jeopardise the viability of future energy systems and requires counterbalancing forces to override the negative consequences of path-dependent energy transitions.

Energy production and consumption are major contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions exacerbating one of the greatest challenges faced by modern societies: climate change. Thus societies must switch to more sustainable energy sources. Green hydrogen has emerged as a promising alternative energy carrier facilitating storage and utilization across various industries. However amidst different production processes solely sustainable electrolysis stands out as an environmentally benign production method. Hydrogen producers must prove provenance and sustainable production to regulatory bodies and hydrogen buyers to comply with the regulations for sustainable development. Blockchain provides a viable solution encompassing trustworthy and secure information sharing between untrusted partners. In this article we employ a design science research approach to develop a blockchain-based certification system (BLC-CS) for green hydrogen. Through collaboration with experts to gather requirements and conduct evaluations we design an artifact that streamlines the certification process for producers regulators and consumers. Our proposed solution facilitates information gathering verification and reporting contributing to the advancement of sustainable energy practices. We provide a comprehensive discussion of the BLC-CS’s feasibility for green hydrogen certification including technical extensions recommendations for practitioners and directions for future research.

The production of green hydrogen through electrolysis utilizing renewable energies is recognized as a pivotal element in the pursuit of decarbonization. In order to attain cost competitiveness for green hydrogen reasonable generation costs are imperative. To identify cost-effective import partners for Germany given its limited green hydrogen production capabilities this study undertakes an exhaustive techno-economic analysis to determine the potential Levelized Cost of Hydrogen in Germany Norway Spain Algeria Morocco and Egypt for the year 2050 which represents a critical milestone in European decarbonization efforts. Employing a stochastic approach with Monte Carlo simulations the paper marks a significant contribution for projecting future cost ranges acknowledging the multitude of uncertainties inherent in related cost parameters and emphasizing the importance of randomness in these assessments. Country-specific Weighted Average Cost of Capital are calculated in order to create a refined understanding of political and economic influences on cost formation rather than using a uniform value across all investigated nations. Key findings reveal that among the evaluated nations PV-based hydrogen emerges as the most cost-efficient alternative in all countries except Norway with Spain presenting the lowest Levelized Cost of Hydrogen at 1.66 €/kg to 3.12 €/kg followed by Algeria (1.72 €/kg to 3.23 €/kg) and Morocco (1.73 €/kg to 3.28 €/kg). Consequently for economically favorable import options Germany is advised to prioritize PV-based hydrogen imports from these countries. Additionally hydrogen derived from onshore wind in Norway (2.24 €/kg to 3.73 €/kg) offers a feasible import alternative. To ensure supply chain diversity and reduce dependency on a single source a mixed import strategy is advisable. Despite having the lowest electricity cost Egypt shows the highest Levelized Cost of Hydrogen primarily due to a significant Weighted Average Cost of Capital.

The defossilization of industry has far-reaching implications regarding the future demand for hydrogen and other forms of energy. This paper presents and applies a fundamental bottom-up model that relies on techno-economic data of industrial production processes. Its aim is to identify across a range of scenarios the most cost-effective low-carbon options considering a variety of production systems. Subsequently it derives the hydrogen and electricity demand that would result from the implementation of these least-cost low-carbon options in process industries in Germany. Aligning with the German government's target year for achieving climate neutrality this study’s reference year is 2045. The primary contribution lies in analyzing which hydrogen-based and direct electrification solutions would be cost-effective for a range of energy price levels under climate-neutral industrial production and what the resulting hydrogen and electricity demand would be. To this end the methodology of this paper comprises the following steps: selection of the relevant industries (I) definition of conventional reference production systems and their low-carbon options (II) investigation and processing of the techno-economic data of the standardized production systems (III) establishment of a scenario framework (IV) determination of the least-cost low-carbon solution of a conventional reference production system under the scenario assumptions made (V) and estimation of the resulting hydrogen and electricity demand (VI). According to the results the expected industrial hydrogen consumption in 2045 ranges from 255 TWh for higher hydrogen prices in or above the range of onshore wind-based green hydrogen supply costs to up to 542 TWh for very low hydrogen prices corresponding to typical blue hydrogen production costs. Meanwhile the direct electricity consumption of the process industries in the results ranges from 122 TWh for these rather low hydrogen prices to 368 TWh for the higher hydrogen prices in the region of or above the hydrogen supply costs from the electrolysis of energy from an onshore wind farm. Most of the break-even hydrogen prices that are relevant to the choice of low-carbon options are in the range of the benchmark purchase costs for blue hydrogen and green hydrogen produced from offshore wind power which span between €40 per MWh and €97 per MWh.

Japan has formulated a net-zero emissions target by 2050. Existing scenarios consistent with this target generally depend on carbon dioxide removal (CDR). In addition to domestic mitigation actions the import of low-carbon energy carriers such as hydrogen and synfuels and negative emissions credits are alternative options for achieving net-zero emissions in Japan. Although the potential and costs of these actions depend on global energy system transition characteristics which can potentially be informed by the global integrated assessment models they are not considered in current national scenario assessments. This study explores diverse options for achieving Japan's net-zero emissions target by 2050 using a national energy system model informed by international energy trade and emission credits costs estimated with a global energy system model. We found that demand-side electrification and approximately 100 Mt-CO2 per year of CDR implementation equivalent to approximately 10% of the current national CO2 emissions are essential across all net-zero emissions scenarios. Upscaling of domestically generated hydrogen-based alternative fuels and energy demand reduction can avoid further reliance on CDR. While imports of hydrogen-based energy carriers and emission credits are effective options annual import costs exceed the current cost of fossil fuel imports. In addition import dependency reaches approximately 50% in the scenario relying on hydrogen imports. This study highlights the importance of considering global trade when developing national net-zero emissions scenarios and describes potential new roles for global models.