Policy & Socio-Economics
Country Risk Impacts on Export Costs of Green Hydrogen and its Synthetic Downstream Products from the Middle East and North Africa
May 2025
Publication
Green hydrogen produced from renewable energy sources such as wind and solar is increasingly recognized as a critical enabler of the global energy transition and the decarbonization of industrial and transport sectors. The successful adoption of green hydrogen and its derivatives is closely linked to production costs which can vary substantially between countries depending not only on resource potential but also on country-specific financing conditions. These differences arise from country-specific risk factors that affect the costs of capital ultimately influencing investment decisions. However comprehensive assessments that integrate these risks with future cost projections for renewable energy green hydrogen and its synthetic downstream products are lacking. Using the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) as an example this study introduces a novel approach that allows to incorporate mainly qualitative country-specific investment risks into quantitative analyses such as costpotential and energy modelling. Our methodology calculates weighted average costs of capital (WACC) for 17 MENA countries under different risk scenarios providing a more nuanced assessment compared to traditional models that use uniform cost of capital assumptions. The results indicate significant variations in WACC such as between 4.67% in the United Arab Emirates and 24.84% in Yemen or Syria in the business-as-usual scenario. The incorporation of country-specific capital cost scenarios in quantitative analysis is demonstrated by modelling the cost-potential of Fischer-Tropsch (FT) fuels. The results show that countryspecific investment risks significantly impact costs. For instance by 2050 the starting LCOFs in high-risk scenarios can be up to 180% higher than in lowerrisk contexts. This underlines that while renewable energy potential and its cost are important it are the country-specific risk factors—captured through WACC—that have a greater influence in determining the competitiveness of exports and consequently the overall development of the renewable energy green hydrogen and synthetic fuel sectors.
Green Hydrogen: A Pathway to Vietnam’s Energy Security
Oct 2025
Publication
Green hydrogen is increasingly recognized as a pivotal energy carrier in the global transition toward low-carbon energy systems. Beyond its established applications in industry and transportation the development of green hydrogen could accelerate its integration into the power generation sector thus enabling a more sustainable deployment of renewable energy sources. Vietnam endowed with abundant renewable energy potential—particularly solar and wind—has a strong foundation for green hydrogen. This emerging energy source holds significant potential to support the strategic objectives in recent national energy policies aligning with the country’s socio-economic development. However despite this promise the integration of green hydrogen into Vietnam’s energy system remains limited. This paper provides a critical review of the current landscape of green hydrogen in Vietnam examining both the opportunities and challenges associated with its production and deployment. Special attention is given to regulatory frameworks infrastructure readiness and economic viability. Additionally the study also explores the potential of green hydrogen in enhancing energy security within the context of the national energy transition.
An International Review of Hydrogen Technology and Policy Developments, with a Focus on Wind- and Nuclear Power-Produced Hydrogen and Natural Hydrogen
Aug 2025
Publication
The potential for hydrogen to reshape energy systems has been recognized for over a century. Yet as decarbonization priorities have sharpened in many regions three distinct frontier areas are critical to consider: hydrogen produced from wind; hydrogen produced from nuclear power; and the development of natural hydrogen. These pathways reflect technology and policy changes including a 54% increase in the globally installed wind capacity since 2020 plus new signs of potential emerging in nuclear energy and natural hydrogen. Broadly speaking there are a considerable number of studies covering hydrogen production from electrolysis yet none systematically examine wind- and nuclear-derived hydrogen natural hydrogen or the policies that enable their adoption in key countries. This article highlights international policy and technology developments with a focus on prime movers: Germany China the US and Russia.
Synergies Between Green Hydrogen and Renewable Energy in South Africa
Aug 2025
Publication
South Africa has excellent conditions for renewable energy generation making it well placed to produce green hydrogen for both domestic use and export. In building a green hydrogen economy around export markets it will face competition from countries with equivalent or better resources and/or that are located closer to export markets (e.g. in North Africa and the Middle East) or have lower capital costs (developed markets like Australia and Canada). South Africa however has an extensive energy system with unserved electricity demand. The ability to trade electricity with the national grid (feeding into the grid during times of peak dedicated renewable energy supply and extracting from the grid during times of low dedicated renewable energy availability) could reduce the cost of producing green hydrogen by as much as 10–25 %. This paper explores the opportunity for South African green hydrogen producers presented by the electricity supply crisis that has been ongoing since 2007. It highlights the potential for a mutually reinforcing growth cycle between renewable energy and green hydrogen to be established which will contribute not only to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions but to the local economy and broader society.
Potential Vulnerability of US Green Hydrogen in a World of Interdependent Networks
Jul 2025
Publication
Green hydrogen is viewed as a promising pathway to future decarbonized energy systems. However hydrogen production depends on a few critical minerals particularly platinum and iridium. Here we examine how the supply of these minerals is subject to vulnerabilities hidden in interdependent global networks of trade and investment. We develop an index to quantify these vulnerabilities for a combination of a target country an investing country an intermediary country and a commodity. Focusing on the US as the target country for the import of platinum and iridium we show how vulnerability-inducing investing countries changed between 2010 and 2019. We find that the UK is consistently among investing countries that can potentially induce US vulnerabilities via intermediary exporters of platinum and iridium with South Africa being the primary intermediary country. Future research includes incorporating geopolitical factors and technological innovations to move the index closer from potential to real-world vulnerabilities.
The Hydrogen Challenge: Addressing Storage, Safety, and Environmental Concerns in the Hydrogen Economy
Aug 2025
Publication
As part of global decarbonization efforts hydrogen has emerged as a key energy carrier that can achieve deep emission reductions in various sectors. This review critically assesses the role of hydrogen in the low-carbon energy transition and highlights the interlinked challenges within the Techno-Enviro-Socio-Political (TESP) framework. It examines key aspects of deployment including production storage safety environmental impacts and socio-political factors to present an integrated view of the opportunities and barriers to large-scale adoption. Despite growing global interest over 90 % of the current global hydrogen production originated from fossilbased processes resulting in around 920 Mt of CO2 emissions two-thirds of which were attributable to fossil fuels. The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) shows that coal-based electrolysis resulted in the highest GHG emission (144 - 1033 g CO2-eq/MJ) and an energy consumption (1.55–10.33 MJ/MJ H2). Without a switch to low-carbon electricity electrolysis cannot deliver significant climate benefits. Conversely methanol steam reforming based on renewable feedstock offered the lowest GHG intensity (23.17 g CO2-eq/MJ) and energy demand (0.23 MJ/ MJ) while biogas reforming proved to be a practical short-term option with moderate emissions (51.5 g CO2-eq/ MJ) and favourable energy figures. Catalytic ammonia cracking which is suitable for long-distance transport represents a compromise between low energy consumption (2.93 MJ/MJ) and high water intensity (8.34 L/km). The thermophysical properties of hydrogen including its low molecular weight high diffusivity and easy flammability lead to significant safety risks during storage and distribution which are exacerbated by its sensitivity to ignition and jet pulse effects. The findings show that a viable hydrogen economy requires integrated strategies that combine decarbonised production scalable storage harmonised safety protocols and cross-sector stakeholder engagement for better public acceptance. This review sets out a multi-dimensional approach to guide technological innovation policy adaptation and infrastructure readiness to support a scalable and environmentally sustainable hydrogen economy.
Understanding the Framing of Hydrogen Technology: A Cross-national Content Analysis of Newspaper Coverage in Germany, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt
Jul 2025
Publication
Introduction: The implementation of national hydrogen strategies targeting zero-emission goals has sparked public discussions regarding energy and environmental communication. However gaining societal acceptance for hydrogen technology poses a significant challenge in numerous countries. Hence this research investigates the framing of hydrogen technology through a comparative analysis of opinion-leading newspapers in Germany Saudi Arabia the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. Methods: Utilizing a quantitative framing analysis based on Entman’s framing approach this research systematically identifies media frames and comprehend their development through specific frame characteristics. A factor analysis identified six distinct frames: Hydrogen as a Sustainable Energy Solution Benefits of Economic and Political Collaboration Technological and Scientific Challenges Governance Issues and Energy Security Industrial and Climate Solutions and Economic Risk. Results: The findings reveal that newspapers frames vary significantly due to contextual factors such as national hydrogen strategies media systems political ideologies article types and focusing events. Specifically German newspapers display diverse and balanced framing in line with its pluralistic media environment and national emphasis on green hydrogen and energy security while newspapers from MENA countries primarily highlight economic and geopolitical benefits aligned with their national strategies and state-controlled media environments. Additionally the political orientation of newspapers affects the diversity of frames particularly in Germany. Moreover non-opinion articles in Germany exhibit greater framing diversity compared to opinion pieces while in the MENA region the framing remains uniform regardless of article type due to centralized media governance. A notable shift in media framing in Germany was found after a significant geopolitical event which changed the frame from climate mitigation to energy security. Discussion: This study underscores the necessity for theoretical and methodological thoroughness in identifying frames as well as the considerable impact of contextual factors on the media representation of emerging sustainable technologies.
An Expert Opinion-based Perspective on Emerging Policy and Economic Research Priorities for Advancing the Low-carbon Hydrogen Sector
Jun 2025
Publication
This perspective sheds light on emerging research priorities crucial for advancing the low-carbon hydrogen sector considered critical for achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions targets especially for hard-to-abate sectors. Our analysis follows a five-step process including drawing from news media academic discourse and expert consultations. We identify twenty-one major research challenges. Among the top priorities highlighted by experts are: (i) Evaluating the trade-offs of hydrogen-fueled power generation compared to hydrocarbon fuels and renewables with alternative storage solutions and the feasibility of co-firing hydrogen and ammonia with hydrocarbon fuels for backup or independent power generation; (ii) Exploring how global hydrogen trade could be shaped by market forces such as price volatility geopolitical dynamics and international collaborations; (iii) Examining the financial considerations for investors from developed nations pursuing hydrogen projects in resource-rich developing countries balancing costs investment risks and expected returns. We find statistically significant differences in opinions on hydrogen/ammonia co-firing for power generation between experts from China and those from the U.S. and Germany.
The Financial Results of Energy Sector Companies in Europe and Their Involvement in Hydrogen Production
Jun 2025
Publication
In response to growing environmental concerns hydrogen production has emerged as a critical element in the transition to a sustainable global economy. We evaluate the impact of hydrogen production on both the financial performance and market value of energy sector companies using balanced panel data from 288 European-listed firms over the period of 2018 to 2022. The findings reveal a paradox. While hydrogen production imposes significant financial constraints it is positively recognized by market participants. Despite short-term financial challenges companies engaged in hydrogen production experience higher market value as investors view these activities as a long-term growth opportunity aligned with global sustainability goals. We contribute to the literature by offering empirical evidence on the financial outcomes and market valuation of hydrogen engagement distinguishing between production and storage activities and further categorizing production into green blue and gray hydrogen. By examining these nuances we highlight the complex relationship between financial market results. While hydrogen production may negatively impact short-term financial performance its potential for long-term value creation driven by decarbonization efforts and sustainability targets makes it attractive to investors. Ultimately this study provides valuable insights into how hydrogen engagement shapes corporate strategies within the evolving European energy landscape.
Towards Net-Zero: Comparative Analysis of Hydrogen Infrastructure Development in USA, Canada, Singapore, and Sri Lanka
Sep 2025
Publication
This paper compares national hydrogen (H2) infrastructure plans in Canada the United States (the USA) Singapore and Sri Lanka four countries with varying geographic and economic outlooks but shared targets for reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. It examines how each country approaches hydrogen production pipeline infrastructure policy incentives and international collaboration. Canada focuses on large-scale hydrogen production utilizing natural resources and retrofitted natural gas pipelines supplemented by carbon capture technology. The USA promotes regional hydrogen hubs with federal investment and intersectoral collaboration. Singapore suggests an innovation-based import-dominant strategy featuring hydrogen-compatible infrastructure in a land-constrained region. Sri Lanka maintains an import-facilitated pilot-scale model facilitated by donor funding and foreign collaboration. This study identifies common challenges such as hydrogen embrittlement leakages and infrastructure scalability as well as fundamental differences based on local conditions. Based on these findings strategic frameworks are proposed including scalability adaptability partnership policy architecture digitalization and equity. The findings highlight the importance of localized hydrogen solutions supported by strong international cooperation and international partnerships.
Design and Analysis of Small‑Scale Hydrogen Valleys Success Factors: A Stratified Network‑Based Hybrid Fuzzy Approach
Sep 2025
Publication
Hydrogen energy one of the renewable energy sources plays a crucial role in combating climate change since its usage aims to reduce carbon emissions and enhance energy security. As the global energy trend moves toward cleaner alternatives countries start to adapt their energy strategies. In this transition hydrogen is one of the energy sources with the potential to increase long-term energy security. Developing countries face challenges such as high energy import dependency rising industrial demand and the need for infrastructure modernization making hydrogen valleys one of the viable solutions since they integrate hydrogen production storage distribution and utilization at one facility. However establishing small-scale hydrogen valleys requires a comprehensive decision-making strategy consisting of technical financial environmental social and political factors while addressing uncertainties in the system. To systematically manage the process this study proposes a Z-numberbased fuzzy cognitive mapping approach which models the interdependencies among success factors supported by Z-number Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory for structured prioritization with a multi-expert perspective. The results indicate that Financial Factors emerged as the most critical category with Government Incentives Infrastructure Investment Cost and Land Acquisition Cost ranking as the top three sub-success factors. Availability of Skilled Workforce and Regional Energy Supply followed in importance which demonstrates the importance of social and technical dimensions in the hydrogen valley development. These findings demonstrate the critical role of policy support infrastructure readiness and workforce availability in the design process. Sensitivity analyses are also conducted to present robustness of the given decisions for the analysis of the results. Based on the results and analyses possible implications based on the policy and practical dimensions are also discussed. By integrating fuzzy logic and Z-numbers the study aims to minimize loss of information enhances the analytical background for decision-making and provides a strategic roadmap for hydrogen valley development.
Modeling and Optimization Control of SOEC with Flexible Adjustment Capabilities
Jul 2025
Publication
Due to the random fluctuations in power experienced by high-temperature green electric hydrogen production systems further deterioration of spatial distribution characteristics such as temperature voltage/current and material concentration inside the solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) stack may occur. This has a negative impact on the system’s flexibility and the corresponding control capabilities. In this paper based on the SOEC electrolytic cell model a comprehensive optimization method using an adaptive incremental Kriging surrogate model is proposed. The reliability of this method is verified by accurately analyzing the dynamic performance of the SOEC and the spatial characteristics of various physical quantities. Additionally a thermal dynamic analysis is performed on the SOEC and an adaptive time-varying LPV-MPC optimization control method is established to ensure the temperature stability of the electrolysis cell stack aiming to maintain a stable efficient and sustainable SOEC operation. The simulation analysis of SOEC hydrogen production adopting a variable load operation has demonstrated the advantages of this method over conventional PID control in stabilizing the temperature of the stack. It allows for a rapid adjustment in the electrolysis voltage and current and improves electrolysis efficiency. The results highlighted that the increase in the electrolysis load increases the current density while the water vapor electrolysis voltage and H2 flow rate significantly decrease. Finally the SOEC electrolytic hydrogen production module is introduced for optimization scheduling of energy consumption in Xinjiang China. The findings not only confirmed that the SOEC can transition to the current load operating point at each scheduling period but also demonstrated higher effectiveness in stabilizing the stack temperature and improving electrolysis efficiency.
Grid Infrastructure and Renewables Integration for Singapore Energy Transition
Oct 2025
Publication
Considering rising environmental concerns and the energy transition towards sustainable energy Singapore’s power sector stands at a crucial juncture. This study explores the integration of grid infrastructure with both generated and imported renewable energy (RE) sources as a strategic pathway for the city-state’s energy transition to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Employing a combination of simulation modeling and data analysis for energy trading and advanced energy management technologies we examine the current and new grid infrastructure’s capacity to assimilate RE sources particularly solar photovoltaic and energy storage systems. The findings reveal that with strategic upgrades and smart grid technologies; Singapore’s grid can efficiently manage the variability and intermittency of RE sources. This integration is pivotal in achieving a higher penetration of renewables as well as contributing significantly to Singapore’s commitment to the Paris Agreement and sustainable development goals. While the Singapore’s power system has links to the Malay Peninsula the planned ASEAN regional interconnection might alter the grid operation in Singapore and possibly make Singapore a new green energy hub. The study also highlights the key challenges and opportunities associated with cross-border energy trade with ASEAN countries including the need for harmonized regulatory frameworks and incentives to foster public–private partnerships. The insights from this study could guide policymakers industry stakeholders and researchers offering a roadmap for a sustainable energy transition in Singapore towards meeting its 2050 carbon emission goals.
Increasing Public Acceptance of Fuel Cell Vehicles in Germany: A Perspective on Pioneer Users
Jun 2025
Publication
Fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) represent an intriguing alternative to battery electric vehicles (BEVs). While the acceptance of BEVs has been widely discussed acceptance-based recommendations for promoting adoption of FCVs remain ambiguous. This paper aims to improve our understanding by reporting results from a pioneer study based on the standardized Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology 2 (UTAUT2). The sample consists of n1 = 258 registered customers of H2mobility in Germany. For effect control another n2 = 294 participant sample was drawn from the baseline population. Data were analyzed using SmartPLS 4 and importance-performance mapping (IPMA). Results demonstrate that FCV acceptance primarily relies on Perceived Usefulness Perceived Conditions and Normative Influence while surprisingly hypotheses involving Perceived Risk and Green Attitude are rejected. Finally a discussion reveals ways to increase the level of public acceptance. Three practical strategies emerge. For future acceptance analyses the authors suggest incorporating the young concept of ‘societal readiness’.
A Comprehensive Review of Advances in Bioenergy including Emerging Trends and Future Directions
Aug 2025
Publication
Bioenergy is a promising alternative to fossil fuels-based energy with significant potential to transform global energy systems and promote environmental sustainability. This review provides a comprehensive overview of the evolution of bioenergy emphasizing its role in the global transition to sustainable energy. It explores a diverse range of biomass sources including forest and agricultural residues algae and industrial by-products and their conversion into energy via thermochemical biochemical and physicochemical pathways. The paper also highlights recent technological advancements and assesses the environmental sustainability of bioenergy systems. Additionally it examines key challenges hindering bioenergy development such as feedstock logistics technological limitations economic viability and policy gaps that need resolution to fully realise its potential. By synthesizing literature from 2010 to 2025 the review identifies strategic priorities for research and deployment aiming to inform efforts that align bioenergy utilization with global decarbonization goals.
Optimizing Vietnam's Hydrogen Strategy: A Life-cycle Perspective on Technology Choices, Environmental Impacts, and Cost Trade-offs
Sep 2025
Publication
Vietnam recognizes hydrogen as a key fuel for decarbonization under its National Hydrogen Strategy. Here we quantified the environmental and economic performance of Vietnam’s optimal hydrogen-production pathways by evaluating combinations of green and blue hydrogen under varying demand scenarios using life-cycle assessment and optimization modeling techniques. The environmental performance of hydrogen production proved highly sensitive to the electricity source with water electrolysis powered by renewable energy offering the most favorable outcomes. Although green hydrogen production reduced carbon emissions it shifted environmental burdens toward increased resource extraction. Producing 20 Mt of hydrogen by 2050 would require 741.56 TWh of electricity 178 Mt of water and USD 294 billion in investment and it would emit 50.48 Mt CO2. These findings highlight the importance of strategic hydrogen planning and resource strategy aligned with national priorities for energy transition to navigate trade-offs among technology selection emissions costs and resource consumption.
A Critical Review of China's Hydrogen Supply Chain and Equipment
Sep 2025
Publication
China’s dual-carbon goals have positioned hydrogen as a central pillar of its energy transition. This review examines the recent development of China’s hydrogen supply chain with particular focus on manufacturing technologies for alkaline electrolysers high-pressure cylinders and diaphragm compressors. In 2024 China produced 36.5 million tons of hydrogen of which 77 % was grey and only 1 % derived from electrolysis. Storage and transportation account for nearly 30 % of end-use costs while reliance on imported compressors increases refuelling station expenses by approximately 40 %. We identify key bottlenecks including limited electrolyser efficiency the high cost of carbon fibres for Type III/IV cylinders and insufficient domestic capacity for highreliability compressors. To address these challenges targeted advances are proposed: membrane materials with engineered hydrophilicity advanced surface modifications and hydrophilic inhibitors; liner design incorporating grooved-liner braided layers with double-fibre configurations; and a three-layer diaphragm compressor architecture. By consolidating fragmented studies this review provides the integrated manufacturing perspective on China’s hydrogen supply chain offering both scientific insights and practical guidance for accelerating costeffective large-scale low-carbon hydrogen deployment.
Energy Storage in the Energy Transition and Blue Economy: Challenges, Innovations, Future Perspectives, and Educational Pathways
Sep 2025
Publication
Transitioning to renewable energy is vital to achieving decarbonization at the global level but energy storage is still a major challenge. This review discusses the role of energy storage in the energy transition and the blue economy focusing on technological development challenges and directions. Effective storage is vital for balancing intermittent renewable energy sources like wind solar and marine energy with the power grid. The development of battery technologies hydrogen storage pumped hydro storage and emerging technologies like sodium-ion and metal-air batteries is discussed for their potential for large-scale deployment. Shortages in critical raw materials environmental impact energy loss and costs are some of the challenges to large-scale deployment. The blue economy promises opportunities for offshore energy storage notably through ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) and compressed air energy storage (CAES). Moreover the capacity of datadriven optimization and artificial intelligence to enhance storage efficiency is discussed. Policy interventions and economic incentives are necessary to spur the development and deployment of sustainable energy storage technology. Education and workforce training are also important in cultivating future researchers engineers and policymakers with the ability to drive energy innovation. Merging sustainability training with an interdisciplinary approach can potentially establish an efficient workforce that is capable of addressing energy issues. Future work needs to focus on higher energy density efficiency recyclability and cost-effectiveness of the storage technologies without sacrificing their environmental sustainability. The study underlines the need for converging technological economic and educational approaches to enable a sustainable and resilient energy future.
Overcoming Hurdles and Harnessing the Potential of the Hydrogen Transition in Germany
Jun 2025
Publication
Green hydrogen has become a core element of Europe’s energy transition to assist in lowering carbon emissions. However the transition to green hydrogen faces challenges including the cost of production availability of renewable energy sources public opposition and the need for supportive government policies and financial initiatives. While there are other alternatives for producing low-carbon hydrogen for example blue hydrogen German funding favours projects that involve hydrogen production via electrolysis. Beyond climate goals it is anticipated that a green hydrogen industry will create economic benefits and a wide-range of collaborative opportunities with key international partnerships increasing energy security if done appropriately. Germany a leader in green hydrogen technology will need to rely on imports to meet long-term demand due to limited renewable energy capacity. Despite the current obstacles to transitioning to green hydrogen it is felt that ultimately the benefits of this industry and reducing emissions will outweigh the associated costs of production. This study analyses the hydrogen transition in Germany by interviewing 37 European experts guided by the research question: What are the key perceived barriers and opportunities influencing the successful adoption and integration of hydrogen technologies in Germany’s hydrogen transition?
Renewables, Electrification and Flexibility for a Competitive EU Energy System Transformation by 2030
Jun 2025
Publication
The European Union is on a pathway to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. This report explores the historic and necessary efforts to align Europe′s electricity heating and transport systems with transformative EU benchmarks for 2030 to meet that longer-term goal. CO2 emissions have declined significantly in the EU electricity subsystem over the past few decades. This presents an important opportunity to decarbonise rapidly in the near future and to roll out electrification to other sectors while strengthening energy independence security and competitiveness for all EU countries. Through accelerated gains in energy and resource efficiency and the alignment of Member States′ efforts within a more coherent EU energy system the rapid electrification of buildings transport and industry can greatly reduce Europe′s reliance on foreign fossil fuels and unlock critical progress in heating and transport. Over the past five years EU policy frameworks for climate mitigation and energy system transformation have become far more coherent and complete. Infrastructure security and resilience have been bolstered through integrated climate and energy planning in tandem with national and cross-border efforts to ensure sound policy implementation. It is now critical that decision-makers translate objectives and priorities for the energy system transition into actionable measures. This includes crafting fiscal strategies to finance key upfront infrastructure investments; distributing the cost of capital proportionally to not overburden taxpayers; aligning taxation pricing and information signals across the whole energy system; and regularly monitoring and evaluating performance to recalibrate policies when needed.
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