Policy & Socio-Economics

Pathways leading to a carbon neutral future for the German energy system have to deal with the expected phase-out of coal-fired power generation in addition to the shutdown of nuclear power plants and the rapid ramp-up of photovoltaics and wind power generation. An analysis of the expected impact on electricity market security of supply and system stability must consider the European context because of the strong coupling—both from an economic and a system operation point of view—through the cross-border power exchange of Germany with its neighbors. This analysis complemented by options to improve the existing development plans is the purpose of this paper. We propose a multilevel energy system modeling including electricity market network congestion management and system stability to identify challenges for the years 2023 and 2035. Out of the results we would like to highlight the positive role of innovative combined heat and power (CHP) solutions securing power and heat supply the importance of a network congestion management utilizing flexibility from sector coupling and the essential network extension plans. Network congestion and reduced security margins will become the new normal. We conclude that future energy systems require expanded flexibilities in combination with forward planning of operation.

As a signatory to the Paris Agreement Singapore is committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions in the second half of the century. In this paper we propose a decarbonization roadmap for Singapore based on an analysis of Singapore’s energy landscape and a technology mapping exercise. This roadmap consists of four major components. The first component which also underpins the other three components is using centralized post-combustion carbon capture technology to capture and compress CO2 emitted from multiple industrial sources in Jurong Island. The captured CO2 is then transported by ship or an existing natural gas pipeline to a neighboring country where it will be stored permanently in a subsurface reservoir. Important to the success of this first-of-a-kind cross-border carbon capture and storage (CCS) project is the establishment of a regional CCS corridor which makes use of economies of scale to reduce the cost of CO2 capture transport and injection. The second component of the roadmap is the production of hydrogen in a methane steam reforming plant which is integrated with the carbon capture plant. The third component is the modernizing of the refining sector by introducing biorefineries increasing output to petrochemical plants and employing post-combustion carbon capture. The fourth component is refueling the transport sector by introducing electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles using biofuels for aviation and hydrogen for marine vessels. The implications of this roadmap on Singapore’s energy policies are also discussed.

The EU aims for complete decarbonisation. Therefore renewable generation must be massively expanded and the energy and exergy efficiency of the entire system must be significantly increased. To increase exergy efficiency a holistic consideration of the energy system is necessary. This work analyses the optimal technology mix to maximise exergy efficiency in a fully decarbonised energy system. An exergy-based optimisation model is presented and analysed. It considers both the energy supply system and the final energy application. The optimisation is using Austria as a case study with targeted renewable generation capacities of 2030. The results show that despite this massive expansion and the maximum exergy efficiency about half of the primary energy still be imported. Overall exergy efficiency can be raised from today's 34% (Sejkora et al. 2020) to 56%. The major increase in exergy efficiency is achieved in the areas of heat supply (via complete excess heat utilisation and heat pumps) and transport (via electric and fuel cell drives). The investigated exergy optimisation results in an increase of the final electrical energy demand by 44% compared to the current situation. This increase leads to mainly positive residual loads despite a significant expansion of renewable generation. Negative residual loads are used to provide heat and hydrogen.

To address the climate emergency France is committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. It plans to significantly increase the contribution of renewable energy in its energy mix. The share of renewable energy in its electricity production which amounts to 25.5% in 2020 should reach at least 40% in 2030. This growth poses several new challenges that require policy makers and regulators to act on the technological changes and expanding need for flexibility in power systems. This document presents the main strategies and projects developed in France as well as various recommendations to accompany and support its energy transition policy.

Gaseous fuels with low life-cycle emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) play a prominent role in the European Union’s (EU) decarbonization plans. Renewable and low-GHG hydrogen are highlighted in the ambitious goals for a cross-sector hydrogen economy laid out in the European Commission’s Hydrogen Strategy. Renewable hydrogen and biomethane are given strong production incentives in the Commission’s proposed revision to the Renewable Energy Directive (REDII). The EU uses life-cycle analysis (LCA) to determine whether renewable gas pathways meet the GHG reduction thresholds for eligibility in the REDII. This study aims to support European policymakers with a better understanding of the uncertainties regarding gaseous fuels’ roles in meeting climate goals. Life-cycle GHG analysis is complex and differences in methodology as well as data inputs and assumptions can spell the difference between a renewable gas pathway qualifying or not for REDII eligibility at the 50% to 80% GHG reduction level. It is thus important for European policymakers to use robust LCA to ensure that policy only supports gas pathways consistent with a vision of deep decarbonization. For this purpose we conduct sensitivity analysis of the life-cycle GHG emissions of a number of low-GHG gas pathways including biomethane produced from four feedstocks: wastewater sludge manure landfill gas (LFG) and silage maize; and hydrogen produced from eight sources: natural gas combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) coal with CCS biomass gasification renewable electricity 2030 EU grid electricity wastewater sludge biomethane manure biomethane and LFG biomethane. For each pathway we estimate the life-cycle GHG intensity using a default central case identify key parameters that strongly affect the fuel’s GHG intensity and conduct a sensitivity analysis by changing these key parameters according to the range of possible values collected from the literature. Figure ES1 summarizes the full range of possible GHG intensities for each gaseous pathway we analyzed in this study—biomethane is depicted in the top figure and hydrogen is shown in the bottom. The bars represent the GHG intensity of the central case and vertical error bars indicate the maximum and minimum GHG intensity of each pathway according to our sensitivity analysis. The dotted orange horizontal line illustrates the fossil comparator which is 94 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per megajoule (gCO2e/MJ) for transport fuels in the REDII. The dotted yellow line represents the GHG intensity of a 65% GHG reduction goal for biomethane used in the transportation sector or 70% GHG reduction for hydrogen. Pathways are situated from left to right in increasing order of GHG intensity of the central case. Comparing the central cases of the four biomethane pathways the waste-based biomethane pathways generally have negative GHG intensity. However considering the uncertainty in these GHG intensities manure biomethane might have more limited carbon reduction potential in the 100-year timeframe if methane leakage from its production process is high. In contrast wastewater sludge biomethane and LFG biomethane even after accounting for uncertainties retain relatively low GHG emissions. On the other hand biomethane produced from silage maize can have much higher emissions; in the central case we find that silage maize biogas only reduces GHG emissions by 30% relative to the fossil comparator—the low carbon reduction potential is due to the significant emissions emerging from direct and indirect land use change involved in growing maize. Taking into account the variation in assumptions silage maize biomethane can be worse for the climate than fossil fuels.

Global maritime transportation is responsible for around 3% of total anthropogenic green‐ house gas emissions and significant proportions of SOx NOx and PM emissions. Considering the predicted growth in shipping volumes to 2050 greenhouse gas emissions from ships must be cut by 75–85% per ton‐mile to meet Paris Agreement goals. This study reviews the potential of a range of alternative fuels for decarbonisation in maritime. A systematic literature review and information synthesis method was applied to evaluate fuel characteristics production pathways utilization technologies energy efficiency lifecycle environmental performance economic viability and cur‐ rent applicable policies. Alternative fuels are essential to decarbonisation in international shipping. However findings suggest there is no single route to deliver the required greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Emissions reductions vary widely depending on the production pathways of the fuel. Alternative fuels utilising a carbon‐intensive production pathway will not provide decarbonisation instead shifting emissions elsewhere in the supply chain. Ultimately a system‐wide perspective to creating an effective policy framework is required in order to promote the adoption of alternative propulsion technologies.

Hydrogen is currently enjoying a renewed and widespread momentum in many national and international climate strategies. This review paper is focused on analysing the challenges and opportunities that are related to green and blue hydrogen which are at the basis of different perspectives of a potential hydrogen society. While many governments and private companies are putting significant resources on the development of hydrogen technologies there still remains a high number of unsolved issues including technical challenges economic and geopolitical implications. The hydrogen supply chain includes a large number of steps resulting in additional energy losses and while much focus is put on hydrogen generation costs its transport and storage should not be neglected. A low-carbon hydrogen economy offers promising opportunities not only to fight climate change but also to enhance energy security and develop local industries in many countries. However to face the huge challenges of a transition towards a zero-carbon energy system all available technologies should be allowed to contribute based on measurable indicators which require a strong international consensus based on transparent standards and targets.

This report The Future of Clean Hydrogen in the United States: Views from Industry Market Innovators and Investors sheds light on the rapidly evolving hydrogen market based on 72 exploratory interviews with organizations across the current and emerging hydrogen value chain. This report is part of a series From Kilograms to Gigatons: Pathways for Hydrogen Market Formation in the United States which will build on this study to evaluate policy opportunities for further hydrogen development in the United States. The goal of the interviews was to provide a snapshot of the clean hydrogen investment environment and better understand organizations’ market outlook investment rationale and areas of interest. This interview approach was supported by traditional research methods to contextualize and enrich the qualitative findings. This report should be understood as input to a more extensive EFI analysis of hydrogen market formation in the United States; the directions that companies are pursuing in hydrogen production transport and storage and end use at this early stage of value chain development will inform subsequent analysis in important ways.

Growing prosperity among its population and an inherent increasing demand for energy complicate China’s target of combating climate change while maintaining its economic growth. This paper therefore describes three potential decarbonization pathways to analyze different effects for the electricity transport heating and industrial sectors until 2050. Using an enhanced version of the multi-sectoral open-source Global Energy System Model enables us to assess the impact of different CO2 budgets on the upcoming energy system transformation. A detailed provincial resolution allows for the implementation of regional characteristics and disparities within China. Conclusively we complement the model-based analysis with a quantitative assessment of current barriers for the needed transformation. Results indicate that overall energy system CO2 emissions and in particular coal usage have to be reduced drastically to meet (inter-) national climate targets. Specifically coal consumption has to decrease by around 60% in 2050 compared to 2015. The current Nationally Determined Contributions proposed by the Chinese government of peaking emissions in 2030 are therefore not sufficient to comply with a global CO2 budget in line with the Paris Agreement. Renewable energies in particular photovoltaics and onshore wind profit from decreasing costs and can provide a more sustainable and cheaper energy source. Furthermore increased stakeholder interactions and incentives are needed to mitigate the resistance of local actors against a low-carbon transformation.

Although electricity supply is still dominated by fossil fuels it is expected that renewable sources will have a much larger contribution in the future due to the need to mitigate climate change. Therefore this paper presents a new framework for developing Future Electricity Scenarios (FuturES) with high penetration of renewables. A multi-period linear programming model has been created for power-system expansion planning. This has been coupled with an economic dispatch model PowerGAMA to evaluate the technical and economic feasibility of the developed scenarios while matching supply and demand. Application of FuturES is demonstrated through the case of Chile which has ambitious plans to supply electricity using only renewable sources. Four cost-optimal scenarios have been developed for the year 2050 using FuturES: two Business as usual (BAU) and two Renewable electricity (RE) scenarios. The BAU scenarios are unconstrained in terms of the technology type and can include all 11 options considered. The RE scenarios aim to have only renewables in the mix including storage. The results show that both BAU scenarios have a levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) lower than or equal to today’s costs ($72.7–77.3 vs $77.6/MWh) and include 81–90% of renewables. The RE scenarios are slightly more expensive than today’s costs ($81–87/MWh). The cumulative investment for the BAU scenarios is $123-$145 bn compared to $147-$157 bn for the RE. The annual investment across the scenarios is estimated at $4.0 ± 0.4 bn. Both RE scenarios show sufficient flexibility in matching supply and demand despite solar photovoltaics and wind power contributing around half of the total supply. Therefore the FuturES framework is a powerful tool for aiding the design of cost-efficient power systems with high penetration of renewables.

Last year the Prime Minister set out his 10 point plan for a green industrial revolution laying the foundations for a green economic recovery from the impact of COVID-19 with the UK at the forefront of the growing global green economy.

This strategy builds on that approach to keep us on track for UK carbon budgets our 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution and net zero by 2050. It includes:

• our decarbonisation pathways to net zero by 2050 including illustrative scenarios 
• policies and proposals to reduce emissions for each sector 
• cross-cutting action to support the transition. 

The government response to the 2021 Committee on Climate Change (CCC) progress report to Parliament in reducing UK emissions is published alongside this strategy. It will set out our progress over the last 12 months and addresses the latest CCC recommendations. The Net Zero Strategy will be submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as the UK’s second Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy under the Paris Agreement.

This article presents the conceptual assumptions for the process of identifying and evaluating the formal & legal factors that impact the choice of a hydrogen buffer location to stabilize the operation of power distribution networks. The assumption for the research process was establishing a methodological framework for an in-depth analysis of legislative acts (the EU legislation and the national law) to enable identification of synthetic groups of formal & legal factors to be further analyzed using the DEMATEL method. As a result the cause-and-effect relations between the variables were examined and an in-depth analysis was carried out to investigate the level of impact of the formal & legal factors on the functioning and location of a hydrogen energy buffer.

This work aims to investigate the time-resolved cost of electrolytic hydrogen in a future climate-neutral electricity system with high shares of variable renewable electricity generation in which hydrogen is used in the industry and transport sectors as well as for time-shifting electricity generation. The work applies a techno-economic optimization model which incorporates both exogenous (industry and transport) and endogenous (time-shifting of electricity generation) hydrogen demands to elucidate the parameters that affect the cost of hydrogen. The results highlight that several parameters influence the cost of hydrogen. The strongest influential parameter is the cost of electricity. Also important are cost-optimal dimensioning of the electrolyzer and hydrogen storage capacities as these capacities during certain periods limit hydrogen production thereby setting the marginal cost of hydrogen. Another decisive factor is the nature of the hydrogen demand whereby flexibility in the hydrogen demand can reduce the cost of supplying hydrogen given that the demand can be shifted in time. In addition the modeling shows that time-shifting electricity generation via hydrogen production with subsequent reconversion back to electricity plays an important in the climate-neutral electricity system investigated decreasing the average electricity cost by 2%–16%. Furthermore as expected the results show that the cost of hydrogen from an off-grid island-mode-operated industry is more expensive than the cost of hydrogen from all scenarios with a fully interconnected electricity system.

Effective global decarbonization will require an array of solutions across a portfolio of low-carbon resources. One such solution is developing clean hydrogen. This unique fuel has the potential to minimize climate change impacts helping decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors such as heavy industry and global transport while also promoting energy security sustainable growth and job creation. The authors estimate suggest that hydrogen needs to grow seven-fold to support the global energy transition eventually accounting for ten percent of total energy consumption by 2050. A scaleup of this magnitude will increase demand for materials such as aluminum copper iridium nickel platinum vanadium and zinc to support hydrogen technologies - renewable electricity technologies and the electrolyzers for renewable hydrogen carbon storage for low-carbon hydrogen or fuel cells using hydrogen to power transport. This report a joint product of the World Bank and the Hydrogen Council examines these three critical areas. Using new data on the material intensities of key technologies the report estimates the amount of critical minerals needed to scale clean hydrogen. In addition it shows how incorporating sustainable practices and policies for mining and processing materials can help minimize environmental impacts. Key among these approaches is the use of recycled materials innovations in design in order to reduce material intensities and adoption of policies from the Climate Smart Mining (CSM) Framework to reduce impacts to greenhouse gas emissions and water footprint.

To situate its low-carbon transition process in longer-term real-world business contexts this article makes a longitudinal analysis of the UK petrochemical industry focusing on changing economic and socio-political environments and company strategies in the last 50 years. Using the Triple Embeddedness Framework the paper identifies two parallel and conflicting reorientation processes in the UK petrochemical industry. The first one which started in the 1970s and is driven by long-standing competitiveness problems led to retrenchment in the 1980s exit of incumbent companies (BP Shell ICI) and the entry of new firms (INEOS SABIC) in the 1990s and 2000s and diversification into upstream fossil fuel production and ethane imports in the 2010s. The second reorientation process which started in the 2010s is driven by climate change considerations and has led petrochemical firms to reluctantly explore low-carbon alternatives. Despite advancing ambitious visions and plans companies are weakly committed to low-carbon reorientation because this is layered on top of and conflicts with the deeper economically-motivated reorientation process. The paper further concludes that the industry's low-carbon plans and visions are partial because they focus more on some innovations (hydrogen-as-fuel CCS) than on other innovations (recycling bio-feedstocks synthetic feedstocks). Despite exploring alternatives firms also use political resistance strategies to hamper and delay deeper low-carbon reorientation

In this episode titled "The Commission's support to the hydrogen ecosystem" our CEO Jorgo Chatzimarkakis discusses with Rosalinde van der Vlies Clean Planet Director DG RTD - European Commission. Starting off on how Rosalinde joined the Commission the two speakers discuss the Commission's support in developing a hydrogen ecosystem also in light of its participation in the Clean Hydrogen Partnership and the implications arising from the REPowerEU.

In this episode of Hydrogen Europe's podcast "Hydrogen the first element" our CEO Jorgo Chatzimarkakis discusses with Wind Europe's CEO Giles Dickson. Starting off on how Giles joined Wind Europe the two CEOs discuss the responsibilities their industries have in the new energy strategy set in the REPowerEU as well as the fruitful synergies between hydrogen and wind.

The emerging energy transition is particularly described as a move towards a cleaner lower-carbon system. In the context of the global shift towards sustainable energy sources this paper reviews the potential and roadmap for hydrogen energy as a crucial component of the clean energy landscape. The primary objective is to present a comprehensive literature overview illuminating key themes trends and research gaps in the scientific discourse concerning hydrogen production and energy policy. This review focuses particularly on specified geographic contexts with an emphasis on understanding the unique energy policies related to renewable energy in Brazil Austria and Germany. Given their distinct social systems and developmental stages this paper aims to delineate the nuanced approaches these countries adopt in their pursuit of renewable energy and the integration of hydrogen within their energy frameworks. Brazil exhibits vast renewable energy potential particularly in wind and solar energy sectors positioning itself for substantial growth in the coming years. Germany showcases a regulatory framework that promotes innovation and technological expansion reflecting its highly developed social system and commitment to transitioning away from fossil fuels. Austria demonstrates dedication to decarbonization particularly through the exploration of biomethane for residential heating and cooling.

The recent strong increase in the penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) in medium-voltage distribution grids (MVDNs) has raised the need for congestion management in such grids as they were not designed for this new condition. This paper examines to what extent producing green hydrogen through electrolyzers can profitably contribute to congestion alleviation in MVDNs in the presence of high amounts of RES as well as flexible consumers of electricity and a local heat system. To address this issue an incentive-based method for improving flexibility in MVDNs is used which is based on a single-leader–multiple-followers game formulated by bi-level mathematical programming. At the upper level the distribution system operator who is the leader of this game determines dynamic prices as incentives at each node based on the levels of generation and load. Next at the lower level providers of flexibility including producers using electrolyzers price-responsive power consumers heat consumers as well as heat producers respond to these incentives by reshaping their output and consumption patterns. The model is applied to a region in the North of The Netherlands. The obtained results demonstrate that converting power to hydrogen can be an economically efficient way to reduce congestion in MVDNs when there is a high amount of RES. However the economic value of electrolyzers as providers of flexibility to MVDNs decreases when more other options for flexibility provision exist.

On today’s episode Alicia Chris and Patrick are chatting with Vonjy Rakajoba UK Managing Director at Robert Bosch. The Bosch Group is a leading global supplier of technology and services and employs roughly 402600 associates worldwide. Its operations are divided into four business sectors: Mobility Solutions Industrial Technology Consumer Goods and Energy and Building Technology. Bosch believes that hydrogen has a bright future as an energy carrier and is making considerable upfront investments in this area. From 2021 to 2024 the company plans to invest around 600 million euros in mobile fuel-cell applications and a further 400 million euros in stationary ones for the generation of electricity and heat. Vonjy is here with us to discuss more about what Bosch’s expansion into the hydrogen energy sector will look like and how the company expects the market to grow moving forward.

The podcast can be found on their website.

This paper contributes to the climate policy discussion by focusing on the challenges and opportunities of reaching net zero emissions by 2050 in Italy. To support Italian energy planning we developed energy roadmaps towards national climate neutrality consistent with the Paris Agreement objectives and the IPCC goal of limiting the increase in global surface temperature to 1.5 ◦C. Starting from the Italian framework these scenarios identify the correlations among the main pillars for the change of the energy paradigm towards net emissions by 2050. The energy scenarios were developed using TIMES-RSE a partial equilibrium and technology-rich optimization model of the entire Italian energy system. Subsequently an in-depth analysis was developed with the sMTISIM a long-term simulator of power system and electricity markets. The results show that to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 the Italian energy system will have to experience profound transformations on multiple and strongly related dimensions. A predominantly renewable-based energy mix (at least 80–90% by 2050) is essential to decarbonize most of the final energy consumption. However the strong increase of non-programmable renewable sources requires particular attention to new flexibility resources needed for the power system such as Power-to-X. The green fuels produced from renewables via Power-to-X will be a vital energy source for those sectors where electrification faces technical and economic barriers. The paper’s findings also confirm that the European “energy efficiency first” principle represents the very first step on the road to climate neutrality.

The present study investigates four factors that govern the ability to supply hydrogen at a low cost in Europe: the scale of the hydrogen demand; the possibility to invest in large-scale hydrogen storage; process flexibility in hydrogen-consuming industries; and the geographical areas in which hydrogen demand arises. The influence of the hydrogen demand on the future European zero-emission electricity system is investigated by applying the cost-minimising electricity system investment model eNODE to hydrogen demand levels in the range of 0–2500 TWhH2. It is found that the majority of the future European hydrogen demand can be cost-effectively satisfied with VRE assuming that the expansion of wind and solar power is not hindered by a lack of social acceptance at a cost of around 60–70 EUR/MWhH2 (2.0–2.3 EUR/kgH2). The cost of hydrogen in Europe can be reduced by around 10 EUR/MWhH2 if the hydrogen consumption is positioned strategically in regions with good conditions for wind and solar power and a low electricity demand. The cost savings potential that can be obtained from full temporal flexibility of hydrogen consumption is 3-fold higher than that linked to strategic localisation of the hydrogen consumption. The cost of hydrogen per kg increases and the value of flexibility diminishes as the size of the hydrogen demand increases relative to the traditional demand for electricity and the available VRE resources. Low-cost hydrogen is thus achieved by implementing efficiency and flexibility measures for hydrogen consumers as well as increasing acceptance of VRE.

Recent drastic increases in natural gas prices have brought into sharp focus the inherent tensions between net zero transitions energy security and affordability. We investigate the impact of different fuel prices on the energy system transition explicitly accounting for the increasingly coupled power and heating sectors and also incorporate the emerging hydrogen sector. The aim is to identify low-regret decisions and optimal energy system transitions for different fuel prices. We observe that the evolution of the heating sector is highly sensitive to the gas price whereas the composition of the power sector is not qualitatively impacted by gas prices. We also observe that bioenergy plays an important role in the energy system transition and the balance between gas price and biomass prices determines the optimal technology portfolios. The future evolution of the prices of these two resources is highly uncertain and future energy systems must be resilient to these uncertainties.

Green hydrogen is considered the most suitable choice for the future energy market both as energy storage media energy vector and fuel for transportation industry and other applications. In the last twenty years increasing efforts have been dedicated to green hydrogen technologies development but still today a number of issues are claimed in justifying the delay in its large scale application and the star vation of its market. Moreover some new questions seem ready to be put on the table for justifying the delay in green hydrogen technologies applications. In this paper a critical analysis of recent literature and institutional reports is carried out with the aim of understanding what is the real state of the play. In particular peculiar advantages and shortcomings of different green hydrogen technologies (biomass pyrolysis and gasification water electrolysis etc.) have been analysed and compared with a focus on the electrolysis process as the most promising method for large scale and distributed generation of hydrogen. Some geopolitical and economic aspects associated with the transition to a green hydrogen economy - including the feared exacerbation of the water crisis - have been widely examined and discussed with the purpose of identifying approaches and solutions to accelerate the mentioned transition.

This study examines the potential market for residential hydrogen systems in light of the trends towards digitalisation and environmental awareness. Based on a survey of 350 participants the results indicate that although energy experts are sceptical about the benefits of residential hydrogen systems due to their high costs households are highly interested in this technology. The sample shows a willingness to invest in hydrogen applications with some households willing to pay an average of 24% more. An economic assessment compared the cost of a residential hydrogen system with conventional domestic energy systems revealing significant additional costs for potential buyers interested in hydrogen applications.