Policy & Socio-Economics
Optimising Air Quality Co-benefits in a Hydrogen Economy: A Case for Hydrogen-specific Standards for NOx Emissions
Jun 2021
Publication
A global transition to hydrogen fuel offers major opportunities to decarbonise a range of different energyintensive sectors from large-scale electricity generation through to heating in homes. Hydrogen can be deployed as an energy source in two distinct ways in electrochemical fuel cells and via combustion. Combustion seems likely to be a major pathway given that it requires only incremental technological change. The use of hydrogen is not however without side-effects and the widely claimed benefit that only water is released as a by-product is only accurate when it is used in fuel cells. The burning of hydrogen can lead to the thermal formation of nitrogen oxides (NOx – the sum of NO + NO2) via a mechanism that also applies to the combustion of fossil fuels. NO2 is a key air pollutant that is harmful in its own right and is a precursor to other pollutants of concern such as fine particulate matter and ozone. Minimising NOx as a by-product from hydrogen boilers and engines is possible through control of combustion conditions but this can lead to reduced power output and performance. After-treatment and removal of NOx is possible but this increases cost and complexity in appliances. Combustion applications therefore require optimisation and potentially lower hydrogen-specific emissions standards if the greatest air quality benefits are to derive from a growth in hydrogen use
Evaluation of Zero-Energy Building and Use of Renewable Energy in Renovated Buildings: A Case Study in Japan
Apr 2022
Publication
Following the Paris Agreement in 2015 the worldwide focus on global warming countermeasures has intensified. The Japanese government has declared its aim at achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. The concept of zero-energy buildings (ZEBs) is based on measures to reduce energy consumption in buildings the prospects of which are gradually increasing. This study investigated the annual primary energy consumption; as well as evaluated renewed and renovated buildings that had a solar power generation system and utilized solar and geothermal heat. It further examines the prospects of hydrogen production from on-site surplus electricity and the use of hydrogen fuel cells. A considerable difference was observed between the actual energy consumption (213 MJ/m2 ) and the energy consumption estimated using an energy simulation program (386 MJ/m2 ). Considerable savings of energy were achieved when evaluated based on the actual annual primary energy consumption of a building. The building attained a near net zero-energy consumption considering the power generated from the photovoltaic system. The study showed potential energy savings in the building by producing hydrogen using surplus electricity from on-site power generation and introducing hydrogen fuel cells. It is projected that a building’s energy consumption will be lowered by employing the electricity generated by the hydrogen fuel cell for standby power water heating and regenerating heat from the desiccant system.
Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Neutrality Strategies on Gas Infrastructure and Costs: Implications from Case Studies Based on French and German GHG-neutral Scenarios
Sep 2022
Publication
The European Union’s target to reach greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050 calls for a sharp decrease in the consumption of natural gas. This study assesses impacts of greenhouse gas neutrality on the gas system taking France and Germany as two case studies which illustrate a wide range of potential developments within the European Union. Based on a review of French and German GHG-neutral scenarios it explores impacts on gas infrastructure and estimates the changes in end-user methane price considering a business-as-usual and an optimised infrastructure pathway. Our results show that gas supply and demand radically change by mid-century across various scenarios. Moreover the analysis suggests that deep transformations of the gas infrastructure are required and that according to the existing pricing mechanisms the end-user price of methane will increase driven by the switch to low-carbon gases and intensified by infrastructure costs.
A Recent Review of Primary Hydrogen Carriers, Hydrogen Production Methods, and Applications
Mar 2023
Publication
Hydrogen is a promising energy carrier especially for transportation owing to its unique physical and chemical properties. Moreover the combustion of hydrogen gas generates only pure water; thus its wide utilization can positively affect human society to achieve global net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. This review summarizes the characteristics of the primary hydrogen carriers such as water methane methanol ammonia and formic acid and their corresponding hydrogen production methods. Additionally state-of-the-art studies and hydrogen energy applications in recent years are also included in this review. In addition in the conclusion section we summarize the advantages and disadvantages of hydrogen carriers and hydrogen production techniques and suggest the challenging tasks for future research.
Ammonia: Zero-carbon Fertiliser, Fuel and Energy Storage
Feb 2020
Publication
This briefing considers the opportunities and challenges associated with the manufacture and future use of zero-carbon ammonia which is referred to in this report as green ammonia. The production of green ammonia has the capability to impact the transition towards zero-carbon through the decarbonisation of its current major use in fertiliser production. Perhaps as significantly it has the following potential uses: • As a medium to store and transport chemical energy with the energy being released either by directly reacting with air or by the full or partial decomposition of ammonia to release hydrogen. • As a transport fuel by direct combustion in an engine or through chemical reaction with oxygen in the air in a fuel cell to produce electricity to power a motor. • To store thermal energy through the absorption of water and through phase changes between material states (for example liquid to gas).
Smart Power-to-gas Deployment Strategies Informed by Spatially Explicit Cost and Value Models
Oct 2022
Publication
Green hydrogen allows coupling renewable electricity to hard-to-decarbonize sectors such as long-distance transport and carbon-intensive industries in order to achieve net zero emissions. Evaluating the cost and value of power-to-gas is a major challenge owing to the spatial distribution and temporal variability of renewable electricity CO2 and energy demand. Here we propose a method based on geographic information system (GIS) and techno-economic modeling to: (i) compare the levelized cost and levelized value of power-to-gas across locations; (ii) identify potential hotspots for their future implementation in Switzerland; and (iii) set cost improvement targets as well as smart deployment strategies. Our method accounts for the spatial and temporal (both hourly and seasonal) availability of renewable electricity and CO2 sources as well as the presence of gas infrastructure heating networks oxygen and gas demand centers. We find that only green hydrogen plants connected directly to run-of-river hydropower plants are currently profitable in Switzerland (with NPV per CAPEX ranging between 2.3-5.6). However considering technological progress by 2050 a few green hydrogen plants deployed in the demand centers and powered by rooftop PV electricity will also become economically attractive. Moreover a few synthetic methane plants connected to run-of-river hydropower plants currently show slight profitability (NPV per CAPEX reaching values up to 1.3) and in 2050 (NPV per CAPEX up to 3.1) whereas those connected to rooftop PV will remain uneconomical even in 2050. Based on our findings we devise a long-term roadmap for policy makers and project developers to plan future green hydrogen projects. The proposed methodology which is applied to Switzerland can be extended to other countries.
A Positive Shift in the Public Acceptability of a Low-Carbon Energy Project After Implementation: The Case of a Hydrogen Fuel Station
Apr 2019
Publication
Public acceptability of low-carbon energy projects is often measured with one-off polls. This implies that opinion-shifts over time are not always taken into consideration by decision makers relying on these polls. Observations have given the impression that public acceptability of energy projects increases after implementation. However this positive shift over time has not yet been systematically studied and is not yet understood very well. This paper aims to fill this gap. Based on two psychological mechanisms loss aversion and cognitive dissonance reduction we hypothesize that specifically people who live in proximity of a risky low-carbon technology—a hydrogen fuel station (HFS) in this case—evaluate this technology as more positive after its implementation than before. We conducted a survey among Dutch citizen living nearby a HFS and indeed found a positive shift in the overall evaluation of HFS after implementation. We also found that the benefits weighed stronger and the risks weaker after the implementation. This shift did not occur for citizens living further away from the HFS. The perceived risks and benefits did not significantly change after implementation neither for citizens living in proximity nor for citizens living further away. The societal implications of the findings are discussed.
Net Zero and Geospheric Return: Actions Today for 2030 and Beyond
Sep 2020
Publication
In a report co-authored by Columbia University’s Centre on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) and the Global CCS Institute titled ‘Net Zero and Geospheric Return: Actions today for 2030’ findings reveal that climate finance policies and the development of carbon dioxide removal technologies need to grow rapidly within the next 10 years in order to curb climate change and hit net-zero targets.
The report unveils key climate actions required to avoid climate catastrophe:
With 2020 set to close the hottest decade on record CO2 emissions need to drop by 50% to achieve net-zero climate goals by 2030 The rapid deployment of climate mitigating infrastructure needs to occur including the expansion of CO2 pipelines from the current 8000 km to 43000 km by 2030 Clear climate polices which reduce the financial and regulatory risk of CO2 capture and storage and increase CO2 storage options need to be quickly developed and implemented.
Link to document on Global CCS Institute Website
The report unveils key climate actions required to avoid climate catastrophe:
With 2020 set to close the hottest decade on record CO2 emissions need to drop by 50% to achieve net-zero climate goals by 2030 The rapid deployment of climate mitigating infrastructure needs to occur including the expansion of CO2 pipelines from the current 8000 km to 43000 km by 2030 Clear climate polices which reduce the financial and regulatory risk of CO2 capture and storage and increase CO2 storage options need to be quickly developed and implemented.
Link to document on Global CCS Institute Website
Regional Insights into Low-carbon Hydrogen Scale Up: World Energy Insights Working Paper
May 2022
Publication
Following the release of the “Hydrogen on the Horizon” series in July and September 2021 the World Energy Council in collaboration with EPRI and PwC led a series of regional deep dives to understand regional differences within low-carbon hydrogen development. These regional deep dives aimed to uncover regional perspectives and differing dynamics for low-carbon hydrogen uptake.<br/>Although each region presents its own distinctive challenges and opportunities the deep dives revealed that the “regional paths” provide new insights into the global scaling up of low-carbon hydrogen in the coming years. In addition each region holds its own unique potential in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.<br/>Key Takeaways:<br/>1. Our new regional insights indicate that low-carbon hydrogen can play a significant role by 2040 across the world by supporting countries’ efforts towards achieving Paris Agreement goals whilst contributing to the diversity and security of their energy portfolios. This would require significant global trade flows of hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels.<br/>2. The momentum for hydrogen-based fuels is continuing to grow worldwide but differences are seen between regions – based on differing market activities and opportunities.<br/>3. Today moving from “whether” to “how” to develop low-carbon hydrogen highlights significant uncertainties which need to be addressed if hydrogen is to reach its full potential.<br/>Can the challenges in various supply chain options be overcome?<br/>Can hydrogen play a role in tackling climate change in the short term?<br/>Can bankable projects emerge and the gap between engineers and financers be bridged? Can the stability of supply of the main low-carbon hydrogen production sources be guaranteed?<br/>4. Enabling low-carbon hydrogen at scale would notably require greater coordination and cooperation amongst stakeholders worldwide to better mobilise public and private finance and to shift the focus to end-users and people through the following actions:<br/>Moving from production cost to end-use price<br/>Developing Guarantees of Origin schemes with sustainability requirements<br/>Developing a global monitoring and reporting tool on low-carbon hydrogen projects<br/>Better consideration of social impacts alongside economic opportunities
Methane Cracking as a Bridge Technology to the Hydrogen Economy
Nov 2016
Publication
Shifting the fossil fuel dominated energy system to a sustainable hydrogen economy could mitigate climate change through reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Because it is estimated that fossil fuels will remain a significant part of our energy system until mid-century bridge technologies which use fossil fuels in an environmentally cleaner way offer an opportunity to reduce the warming impact of continued fossil fuel utilization. Methane cracking is a potential bridge technology during the transition to a sustainable hydrogen economy since it produces hydrogen with zero emissions of carbon dioxide. However methane feedstock obtained from natural gas releases fugitive emissions of methane a potent greenhouse gas that may offset methane cracking benefits. In this work a model exploring the impact of methane cracking implementation in a hydrogen economy is presented and the impact on global emissions of carbon dioxide and methane is explored. The results indicate that the hydrogen economy has the potential to reduce global carbon dioxide equivalent emissions between 0 and 27% when methane leakage from natural gas is relatively low methane cracking is employed to produce hydrogen and a hydrogen fuel cell is applied. This wide range is a result of differences between the scenarios and the CH4 leakage rates used in the scenarios. On the other hand when methane leakage from natural gas is relatively high methane steam reforming is employed to produce hydrogen and an internal combustion engine is applied the hydrogen economy leads to a net increase in global carbon dioxide equivalent emissions between 19 and 27%.
Hydrogen for Net Zero - A Critical Cost-competitive Energy Vector
Nov 2021
Publication
The report “Hydrogen for Net Zero” presents an ambitious yet realistic deployment scenario until 2030 and 2050 to achieve Net Zero emissions considering the uses of hydrogen in industry power mobility and buildings. The scenario is described in terms of hydrogen demand supply infrastructure abatement potential and investments required and then compared with current momentum and investments in the industry to identify the investment gaps across value chains and geographies.
The report is based on the technoeconomic data of cost and performance of hydrogen technologies provided by Hydrogen Council members and McKinsey & Company as well as the Hydrogen Council investment tracker which covers all large-scale investments into hydrogen globally.
Link to their website
The report is based on the technoeconomic data of cost and performance of hydrogen technologies provided by Hydrogen Council members and McKinsey & Company as well as the Hydrogen Council investment tracker which covers all large-scale investments into hydrogen globally.
Link to their website
Determinants of Consumers’ Purchasing Intentions for the Hydrogen-Electric Motorcycle
Aug 2017
Publication
In recent years increasing concerns regarding the energy costs and environmental effects of urban motorcycle use have spurred the development of hydrogen-electric motorcycles in Taiwan. Although gasoline-powered motorcycles produce substantial amounts of exhaust and noise pollution hydrogen-electric motorcycles are highly energy-efficient relatively quiet and produce zero emissions features that suggest their great potential to reduce the problems currently associated with the use of motorcycles in city environments. This study identified the significant external variables that affect consumers’ purchase intentions toward using hydrogen-electric motorcycles. A questionnaire method was employed with a total of 300 questionnaires distributed and 233 usable questionnaires returned yielding a 78% overall response rate. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was applied to test the research hypothesis. The research concluded that (1) product knowledge positively influenced purchase intentions but negatively affected the perceived risk; (2) perceived quality via hydrogen-electric motorcycles positively influenced the perceived value but negatively affected the perceived risk; (3) perceived risk negatively affected the perceived value; and (4) the perceived value positively affected purchase intentions. This study can be used as a reference for motorcycle manufacturers when planning their marketing strategies.
Interlinking the Renewable Electricity and Gas Sectors: A Techno-Economic Case Study for Austria
Oct 2021
Publication
Achieving climate neutrality requires a massive transformation of current energy systems. Fossil energy sources must be replaced with renewable ones. Renewable energy sources with reasonable potential such as photovoltaics or wind power provide electricity. However since chemical energy carriers are essential for various sectors and applications the need for renewable gases comes more and more into focus. This paper determines the Austrian green hydrogen potential produced exclusively from electricity surpluses. In combination with assumed sustainable methane production the resulting renewable gas import demand is identified based on two fully decarbonised scenarios for the investigated years 2030 2040 and 2050. While in one scenario energy efficiency is maximised in the other scenario significant behavioural changes are considered to reduce the total energy consumption. A techno-economic analysis is used to identify the economically reasonable national green hydrogen potential and to calculate the averaged levelised cost of hydrogen (LCOH2) for each scenario and considered year. Furthermore roll-out curves for the necessary expansion of national electrolysis plants are presented. The results show that in 2050 about 43% of the national gas demand can be produced nationally and economically (34 TWh green hydrogen 16 TWh sustainable methane). The resulting national hydrogen production costs are comparable to the expected import costs (including transport costs). The most important actions are the quick and extensive expansion of renewables and electrolysis plants both nationally and internationally
The Role of Hydrogen in a Greenhouse Gas-neutral Energy Supply System in Germany
Sep 2022
Publication
Hydrogen is widely considered to play a pivotal role in successfully transforming the German energy system but the German government’s current “National Hydrogen Strategy” does not specify how hydrogen utilization production storage or distribution will be implemented. Addressing key uncertainties for the German energy system’s path to greenhouse gas-neutrality this paper examines hydrogen in different scenarios. This analysis aims to support the concretization of the German hydrogen strategy. Applying a European energy supply model with strong interactions between the conversion sector and the hydrogen system the analysis focuses on the requirements for geological hydrogen storages and their utilization over the course of a year the positioning of electrolyzers within Germany and the contributions of hydrogen transport networks to balancing supply and demand. Regarding seasonal hydrogen storages the results show that hydrogen storage facilities in the range of 42 TWhH2 to 104 TWhH2 are beneficial to shift high electricity generation volumes from onshore wind in spring and fall to winter periods with lower renewable supply and increased electricity and heat demands. In 2050 the scenario results show electrolyzer capacities between 41 GWel and 75 GWel in Germany. Electrolyzer sites were found to follow the low-cost renewable energy potential and are concentrated on the North Sea and Baltic Sea coasts with their high wind yields. With respect to a hydrogen transport infrastructure there were two robust findings: One a domestic German hydrogen transport network connecting electrolytic hydrogen production sites in northern Germany with hydrogen demand hubs in western and southern Germany is economically efficient. Two connecting Germany to a European hydrogen transport network with interconnection capacities between 18 GWH2 and 58 GWH2 is cost-efficient to meet Germany’s substantial hydrogen demand.
Methanol as a Renewable Energy Carrier: An Assessment of Production and Transportation Costs for Selected Global Locations
Jun 2021
Publication
The importing of renewable energy will be one part of the process of defossilizing the energy systems of countries and regions which are currently heavily dependent on the import of fossil-based energy carriers. This study investigates the possibility of importing renewable methanol comprised of hydrogen and carbon dioxide. Based on a methanol synthesis simulation model the net production costs of methanol are derived as a function of hydrogen and carbon dioxide expenses. These findings enable a comparison of the import costs of methanol and hydrogen. For this the hydrogen production and distribution costs for 2030 as reported in a recent study for four different origin/destination country combinations are considered. With the predicted hydrogen production costs of 1.35–2 €/kg and additional shipping costs methanol can be imported for 370–600 €/t if renewable or process-related carbon dioxide is available at costs of 100 €/t or below in the hydrogen-producing country. Compared to the current fossil market price of approximately 400 €/t renewable methanol could therefore become cost-competitive. Within the range of carbon dioxide prices of 30–100 €/t both hydrogen and methanol exhibit comparable energy-specific import costs of 18–30 €/GJ. Hence the additional costs for upgrading hydrogen to methanol are balanced out by the lower shipping costs of methanol compared to hydrogen. Lastly a comparison for producing methanol in the hydrogen’s origin or destination country indicates that carbon dioxide in the destination country must be 181–228 €/t less expensive than that in the origin country to balance out the more expensive shipping costs for hydrogen.
Future Electricity Series Part 3 - Power from Nuclear
Mar 2014
Publication
This independent cross-party report highlights the key role that political consensus can play in helping to reduce the costs of nuclear power in the UK as well as other low carbon technologies. This political consensus has never been more important than in this ‘defining decade’ for the power sector. The report highlights that an immediate challenge facing the UK’s new build programme is agreeing with the European Commission a regime for supporting new nuclear power. Changing the proposed support package would not be an impossible task if made necessary but maintaining broad political consensus and considering the implications of delay are also important. The State Aid process is an important opportunity for scrutiny with the report demonstrating that shareholders for Hinkley Point C could see bigger returns (19-21%) than those typically expected for PFI projects (12-15%). However it is too early to conclude on the value for money of the Hinkley Point C agreement. Both the negotiation process and the resulting investment contract are important but there has been little transparency over either so far and the negotiations were not competitive. The inquiry calls for more urgency and better coordination in seizing the opportunity to reuse the UK’s plutonium stockpile.
The UK’s stockpile of separated plutonium presents opportunities to tackle a number of national strategic priorities including implementing long term solutions for nuclear waste developing new technologies that could redefine the sector laying the ground for new nuclear power and pursuing nuclear non-proliferation. Government has identified three ‘credible solutions’ for reuse and the report recommends that it now sets clearer criteria against which to assess options and identifies budgetary requirements to help expediate the process. The report also argues that Government should do more on new nuclear technologies that could redefine the sector – such as considering smaller reactors nuclear for industrial heat or hydrogen production and closed or thorium fuel cycles. The Government’s initial response to a review of nuclear R&D a year ago by the then Chief Scientific Advisor Sir John Beddington has been welcome and it needs to build on this. In particular the UK should capitalise upon its existing expertise and past experience to focus efforts where there is most strategic value. Nulcear waste. Having failed to date the Government must urgently revisit plans for finding a site to store nuclear waste underground for thousands of years. Implementing this is a crucial part of demonstrating that nuclear waste is a manageable challenge. Despite being rejected by Cumbria County Council the continuing strong support amongst communities in West Cumbria for hosting a site is a promising sign.
On affordability the report finds that it is not yet clear which electricity generation technologies will be cheapest in the 2020s and beyond. Coal and gas could get more expensive if fossil fuel and carbon prices rise whilst low carbon technologies could get cheaper as technology costs fall with more deployment. This is the main reason for adopting an ‘all of the above’ strategy including nuclear power until costs become clearer and there is broad consensus behind this general approach.
On security of supply the inquiry says that deployment of nuclear power is likely to be influenced more by the economics of system balancing rather than technical system balancing challenges which can be met with greater deployment of existing balancing tools. The cost of maintaining system security is likely to mean that the UK maintains at least some baseload capacity such as nuclear power to limit system costs.
On sustainability the report finds that the environmental impacts of nuclear power are comparable to some generation technologies and favourable to others although the long lived nature of some radioactive nuclear waste and the dual use potential of nuclear technology for civil and military applications create unique sustainability challenges which the UK is a world leader in managing.
It is the final report of the Future Electricity Series an independent and cross party inquiry into the UK power sector sponsored by the Institution of Gas Engineers and Managers
The UK’s stockpile of separated plutonium presents opportunities to tackle a number of national strategic priorities including implementing long term solutions for nuclear waste developing new technologies that could redefine the sector laying the ground for new nuclear power and pursuing nuclear non-proliferation. Government has identified three ‘credible solutions’ for reuse and the report recommends that it now sets clearer criteria against which to assess options and identifies budgetary requirements to help expediate the process. The report also argues that Government should do more on new nuclear technologies that could redefine the sector – such as considering smaller reactors nuclear for industrial heat or hydrogen production and closed or thorium fuel cycles. The Government’s initial response to a review of nuclear R&D a year ago by the then Chief Scientific Advisor Sir John Beddington has been welcome and it needs to build on this. In particular the UK should capitalise upon its existing expertise and past experience to focus efforts where there is most strategic value. Nulcear waste. Having failed to date the Government must urgently revisit plans for finding a site to store nuclear waste underground for thousands of years. Implementing this is a crucial part of demonstrating that nuclear waste is a manageable challenge. Despite being rejected by Cumbria County Council the continuing strong support amongst communities in West Cumbria for hosting a site is a promising sign.
On affordability the report finds that it is not yet clear which electricity generation technologies will be cheapest in the 2020s and beyond. Coal and gas could get more expensive if fossil fuel and carbon prices rise whilst low carbon technologies could get cheaper as technology costs fall with more deployment. This is the main reason for adopting an ‘all of the above’ strategy including nuclear power until costs become clearer and there is broad consensus behind this general approach.
On security of supply the inquiry says that deployment of nuclear power is likely to be influenced more by the economics of system balancing rather than technical system balancing challenges which can be met with greater deployment of existing balancing tools. The cost of maintaining system security is likely to mean that the UK maintains at least some baseload capacity such as nuclear power to limit system costs.
On sustainability the report finds that the environmental impacts of nuclear power are comparable to some generation technologies and favourable to others although the long lived nature of some radioactive nuclear waste and the dual use potential of nuclear technology for civil and military applications create unique sustainability challenges which the UK is a world leader in managing.
It is the final report of the Future Electricity Series an independent and cross party inquiry into the UK power sector sponsored by the Institution of Gas Engineers and Managers
A Review on Ports' Readiness to Facilitate International Hydrogen Trade
Jan 2023
Publication
The existing literature on the hydrogen supply chains has knowledge gaps. Most studies focus on hydrogen production storage transport and utilisation but neglect ports which are nexuses in the supply chains. To fill the gap this paper focuses on ports' readiness for the upcoming hydrogen international trade. Potential hydrogen exporting and importing ports are screened. Ports' readiness for hydrogen export and import are reviewed from perspectives of infrastructure risk management public acceptance regulations and standards and education and training. The main findings are: (1) liquid hydrogen ammonia methanol and LOHCs are suitable forms for hydrogen international trade; (2) twenty ports are identified that could be first movers; among them twelve are exporting ports and eight are importing ports; (3) ports’ readiness for hydrogen international trade is still in its infancy and the infrastructure construction or renovation risk management measures establishment of regulations and standards education and training all require further efforts.
Moving Toward the Low-carbon Hydrogen Economy: Experiences and Key Learnings from National Case Studies
Sep 2022
Publication
The urgency to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050 as first presented by the IPCC special report on 1.5°C Global Warming has spurred renewed interest in hydrogen to complement electrification for widespread decarbonization of the economy. We present reflections on estimates of future hydrogen demand optimization of infrastructure for hydrogen production transport and storage development of viable business cases and environmental impact evaluations using life cycle assessments. We highlight challenges and opportunities that are common across studies of the business cases for hydrogen in Germany the UK the Netherlands Switzerland and Norway. The use of hydrogen in the industrial sector is an important driver and could incentivise large-scale hydrogen value chains. In the long-term hydrogen becomes important also for the transport sector. Hydrogen production from natural gas with capture and permanent storage of the produced CO2 (CCS) enables large-scale hydrogen production in the intermediate future and is complementary to hydrogen from renewable power. Furthermore timely establishment of hydrogen and CO2 infrastructures serves as an anchor to support the deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies such as direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) and biohydrogen production with CCS. Significant public support is needed to ensure coordinated planning governance and the establishment of supportive regulatory frameworks which foster the growth of hydrogen markets.
Comparative Cost Assessment of Sustainable Energy Carriers Produced from Natural Gas Accounting for Boil-off Gas and Social Cost of Carbon
Jun 2020
Publication
As a result of particular locations of large-scale energy producers and increases in energy demand transporting energy has become one of the key challenges of energy supply. For a long-distance ocean transportation transfer of energy carriers via ocean tankers is considered as a decent solution compared to pipelines. Due to cryogenic temperatures of energy carriers heat leaks into storage tanks of these carriers causes a problem called boil-off gas (BOG). BOG losses reduce the quantity of energy carriers which affects their economic value. Therefore this study proposes to examine the effects of BOG economically in production and transportation phases of potential energy carriers produced from natural gas namely; liquefied natural gas (LNG) dimethyl-ether (DME) methanol liquid ammonia (NH3) and liquid hydrogen (H2). Mathematical approach is used to calculate production and transportation costs of these energy carriers and to account for BOG as a unit cost within the total cost. The results of this study show that transportation costs of LNG liquid ammonia methanol DME and liquid hydrogen from natural gas accounting for BOG are 0.74 $/GJ 1.09 $/GJ 0.68 $/GJ 0.53 $/GJ and 3.24 $/GJ respectively. DME and methanol can be more economic compared to LNG to transport the energy of natural gas for the same ship capacity. Including social cost of carbon (SCC) within the total cost of transporting the energy of natural gas the transportation cost of liquid ammonia is 1.11 $/GJ whereas LNG transportation cost rises significantly to 1.68 $/GJ at SCC of 137 $/t CO2 eq. Consequently liquid ammonia becomes economically favored compared to LNG. Transportation cost of methanol (0.70 $/GJ) and DME (0.55 $/GJ) are also lower than LNG however liquid hydrogen transportation cost (3.24 $/GJ) is still the highest even though the increment of the cost is about 0.1% as SCC included within the transportation cost.
Can Industrial-Scale Solar Hydrogen Supplied from Commodity Technologies Be Cost Competitive by 2030?
Sep 2020
Publication
Expanding decarbonization efforts beyond the power sector are contingent on cost-effective production of energy carriers like H2 with near-zero life-cycle carbon emissions. Here we assess the levelized cost of continuous H2 supply (95% availability) at industrial-scale quantities (100 tonnes/day) in 2030 from integrating commodity technologies for solar photovoltaics electrolysis and energy storage. Our approach relies on modeling the least-cost plant design and operation that optimize component sizes while adhering to hourly solar availability production requirements and component inter-temporal operating constraints. We apply the model to study H2 production costs spanning the continental United States and through extensive sensitivity analysis explore system configurations that can achieve $2.5/kg levelized costs or less for a range of plausible 2030 technology projections at high-irradiance locations. Notably we identify potential sites and system configurations where PV-electrolytic H2 could substitute natural gas-derived H2 at avoided CO2 costs (%$120/ton) similar to the cost of deploying carbon capture and sequestration.
Exploring Supply Chain Design and Expansion Planning of China's Green Ammonia Production with an Optimization-based Simulation Approach
Aug 2021
Publication
Green ammonia production as an important application for propelling the upcoming hydrogen economy has not been paid much attention by China the world's largest ammonia producer. As a result related studies are limited. This paper explores potential supply chain design and planning strategies of green ammonia production in the next decade of China with a case study in Inner Mongolia. A hybrid optimization-based simulation approach is applied considering traditional optimization approaches are insufficient to address uncertainties and dynamics in a long-term energy transition. Results show that the production cost of green ammonia will be at least twice that of the current level due to higher costs of hydrogen supply. Production accounts for the largest share of the total expense of green hydrogen (~80 %). The decline of electricity and electrolyser prices are key in driving down the overall costs. In addition by-product oxygen is also considered in the model to assess its economic benefits. We found that by-product oxygen sales could partly reduce the total expense of green hydrogen (~12 % at a price of USD 85/t) but it also should be noted that the volatile price of oxygen may pose uncertainties and risks to the effectiveness of the offset. Since the case study may represent the favourable conditions in China due to the abundant renewable energy resources and large-scale ammonia industry in this region we propose to take a moderate step towards green ammonia production and policies should be focused on reducing the electricity price and capital investments in green hydrogen production. We assume the findings and implications are informative to planning future green ammonia production in China.
Redrawing the EU’s Energy Relations: Getting it Right with African Renewable Hydrogen
Oct 2022
Publication
In this paper we will explore the state of play with renewable hydrogen development in Africa through some case studies from AGHA members and the scope for growth moving forward. In so doing we will address some of the prevailing challenges to build out of a clean hydrogen economy that could be foreseen already at this early stage and look for potential solutions building on what is already in place in other sectors. We make the case that there should be four key areas of focus moving forward on African-EU hydrogen collaboration. Firstly (i) foreign direct investment (FDI) should be de-risked through offtake mechanisms and public-private partnerships (ii) flagship projects should lead the way (iii) large parts of the value chain should remain in Africa (iv) wider ‘democratisation’ and accessibility of the sector should be encouraged
Technology Roadmaps for Transition Management: The Case of Hydrogen Energy
Oct 2011
Publication
Technology roadmaps are increasingly used by governments to inform and promote technological transitions such as a transition to a hydrogen energy system. This paper develops a framework for understanding how current roadmapping practice relates to emerging theories of the governance of systems innovation. In applying this framework to a case study of hydrogen roadmaps the paper finds that roadmapping for transitions needs to place greater emphasis on ensuring good quality and transparent analytic and participatory procedures. To be most useful roadmaps should be embedded within institutional structures that enable the incorporation of learning and re-evaluation but in practice most transition roadmaps are one-off exercises
Transition to Low-Carbon Hydrogen Energy System in the UAE: Sector Efficiency and Hydrogen Energy Production Efficiency Analysis
Sep 2022
Publication
To provide an effective energy transition hydrogen is required to decarbonize the hard-toabate industries. As a case study this paper provides a holistic view of the hydrogen energy transition in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). By utilizing the directional distance function undesirable data envelopment analysis model the energy economic and environmental efficiency of UAE sectors are estimated from 2001 to 2020 to prioritize hydrogen sector coupling. Green hydrogen production efficiency is analyzed from 2020 to 2050. The UAE should prioritize the industry and transportation sectors with average efficiency scores of 0.7 and 0.74. The decomposition of efficiency into pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency suggests policies and strategies should target upscaling the UAE’s low-carbon hydrogen production capacity to expedite short-term and overall production efficiency. The findings of this study can guide strategies and policies for the UAE’s low-carbon hydrogen transition. A framework is developed based on the findings of the study.
The Vision of France, Germany, and the European Union on Future Hydrogen Energy Research and Innovation
Jul 2021
Publication
Hydrogen (H2) is an essential vector for freeing our societies from fossil fuels and effectively initiating the energy transition. Offering high energy density hydrogen can be used for mobile stationary or industrial applications of all sizes. This perspective on the crucial role of hydrogen is shared by a growing number of countries worldwide (e.g. China Germany Japan Republic of Korea Australia and United States) which are publishing ambitious roadmaps for the development of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies supported by substantial financial efforts.
Role of Low Carbon Emission H2 in the Energy Transition of Colombia: Environmental Assessment of H2 Production Pathways for a Certification Scheme
Oct 2022
Publication
Hydrogen (H2) is a low-carbon carrier. Hence measuring the impact of its supply chain is key to guaranteeing environmental benefits. This research proposes a classification of H2 in Colombia based on its carbon footprint and source. Such environmental characterization enables the design of regulatory instruments to incentivize the demand for low carbon-H2. Life cycle assessment (LCA) was used to determine the carbon footprint of H2 production technologies. Based on our LCA four classes of H2 were defined based on the emission threshold: (i) gray-H2 (21.8 - 17.0 kg CO2-eq/kg H2) (ii) low carbon-H2 (4.13 – 17.0 kg CO2-eq/kg H2) (iii) blue-H2 (<4.13 kg CO2-eq/kg H2) and (iv) green-H2 (<4.13 kg CO2-eq/kg H2). While low carbon-H2 could be employed to reduce 22% of the national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as defined in the National Determined Contribution (NDC) both blue and green-H2 could be employed for national and international trade since the standard emissions are aligned with international schemes such as CertifHy and the Chinese model. Besides gasification of biomass results in environmental savings indicating that biomass is a promising feedstock for international and local trade. Furthermore combinations of H2 production technologies such as renewable-based electrolysis natural gas steam reforming with CCS and ethanol conversion were evaluated to explore the production of a combination of green- and blue-H2 to meet the current and future demand of low carbon emission H2 in Colombia. However to comply with the proposed carbon emission threshold the installed capacities of solar and wind energies must be increase.
The Role of New Energy in Carbon Neutral
Mar 2021
Publication
Carbon dioxide is an important medium of the global carbon cycle and has the dual properties of realizing the conversion of organic matter in the ecosystem and causing the greenhouse effect. The fixed or available carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is defined as “gray carbon” while the carbon dioxide that cannot be fixed or used and remains in the atmosphere is called “black carbon”. Carbon neutral is the consensus of human development but its implementation still faces many challenges in politics resources technology market and energy structure etc. It is proposed that carbon replacement carbon emission reduction carbon sequestration and carbon cycle are the four main approaches to achieve carbon neutral among which carbon replacement is the backbone. New energy has become the leading role of the third energy conversion and will dominate carbon neutral in the future. Nowadays solar energy wind energy hydropower nuclear energy and hydrogen energy are the main forces of new energy helping the power sector to achieve low carbon emissions. “Green hydrogen” is the reserve force of new energy helping further reduce carbon emissions in industrial and transportation fields. Artificial carbon conversion technology is a bridge connecting new energy and fossil energy effectively reducing the carbon emissions of fossil energy. It is predicted that the peak value of China’s carbon dioxide emissions will reach 110108 t in 2030. The study predicts that China's carbon emissions will drop to 22108 t 33108 t and 44108 t respectively in 2060 according to three scenarios of high medium and low levels. To realize carbon neutral in China seven implementation suggestions have been put forward to build a new “three small and one large” energy structure in China and promote the realization of China's energy independence strategy.
Towards a Climate-neutral Energy System in the Netherlands
Jan 2022
Publication
This paper presents two different scenarios for the energy system of the Netherlands that achieve the Dutch government’s national target of near net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in 2050. Using the system optimisation model OPERA the authors have analysed the technology sector and cost implications of the assumptions underlying these scenarios. While the roles of a number of key energy technology and emission mitigation options are strongly dependent on the scenario and cost assumptions the analysis yields several common elements that appear in both scenarios and that consistently appear under differing cost assumptions. For example one of the main options for the decarbonisation of the Dutch energy system is electrification of energy use in end-use sectors and for the production of renewable hydrogen with electrolysers. As a result the level of electricity generation in 2050 will be three to four times higher than present generation levels. Ultimately renewable energy – particularly from wind turbines and solar panels – is projected to account for the vast majority of electricity generation around 99% in 2050. Imbalances between supply and demand resulting from this variable renewable electricity production can be managed via flexibility options including demand response and energy storage. Hydrogen also becomes an important energy carrier notably for transportation and in industry. If import prices are lower than costs of domestic production from natural gas with CCS or through electrolysis from renewable electricity (2.4–2.7 €/kgH2) the use of hydrogen increases especially in the built environment.
Few-atom Cluster Model Systems for a Hydrogen Economy
Apr 2020
Publication
To increase the share of renewable zero-emission energy sources such as wind and solar power in our energy supply the problem of their intermittency needs to be addressed. One way to do so is by buffering excess renewable energy via the production of hydrogen which can be stored for later use after re-electrification. Such a clean renewable energy cycle based on hydrogen is commonly referred to as the hydrogen economy. This review deals with cluster model systems of the three main components of the hydrogen economy i.e. hydrogen generation hydrogen storage and hydrogen re-electrification and their basic physical principles. We then present examples of contemporary research on few atom clusters both in the gas phase and deposited to show that by studying these clusters as simplified models a mechanistic understanding of the underlying physical and chemical processes can be obtained. Such an understanding will inspire and enable the design of novel materials needed for advancing the hydrogen economy.
Law and Policy Review on Green Hydrogen Potential in ECOWAS Countries
Mar 2022
Publication
This paper aims to review existing energy-sector and hydrogen-energy-related legal policy and strategy documents in the ECOWAS region. To achieve this aim current renewable-energyrelated laws acts of parliament executive orders presidential decrees administrative orders and memoranda were analyzed. The study shows that ECOWAS countries have strived to design consistent legal instruments regarding renewable energy in developing comprehensive legislation and bylaws to consolidate it and to encourage investments in renewable energy. Despite all these countries having a legislative basis for regulating renewable energy there are still weaknesses that revolve around the law and policy regarding its possible application in green hydrogen production and use. The central conclusion of this review paper is that ECOWAS member states presently have no official hydrogen policies nor bylaws in place. The hydrogen rise presents a challenge and opportunity for members to play an important role in the fast-growing global hydrogen market. Therefore these countries need to reform their regulatory frameworks and align their policies by introducing green hydrogen production in order to accomplish their green economy transition for the future and to boost the continent’s sustainable development.
Next Steps for the Gas Grid- Future Gas Series Part 1
Sep 2014
Publication
Policy Connect Carbon Connect and sector and Parliamentary experts have collaborated to present options for the gas grid to play a useful role in the UK’s transition to a low carbon energy system through the widespread use of low carbon gas. The report calls on Government to support the transition to a more flexible gas grid that uses various forms of gas including low carbon gases such as hydrogen and biomethane.
Going Global: An Update on Hydrogen Valleys and their Role in the New Hydrogen Economy
Sep 2022
Publication
Hydrogen is a key cornerstone of the green transformation of the global economy and a major lever to diversify energy supplies and accelerate the clean energy transition. Hydrogen will be essential to replace natural gas coal and oil in hard-to-decarbonise sectors in industry mobility and energy. Hydrogen Valleys will become an important cornerstone in producing importing transporting and using clean hydrogen in Europe.
Beyond Traditional Energy Sector Coupling: Conserving and Efficient Use of Local Resources
Jun 2022
Publication
Decentralisation and sector coupling are becoming increasingly crucial for the decarbonisation of the energy system. Resources such as waste and water have high energy recovery potential and are required as inputs for various conversion technologies; however waste and water have not yet been considered in sector coupling approaches but only in separate examinations. In this work an open-source sector coupling optimisation model considering all of these resources and their utilisation is developed and applied in a test-bed in an Israeli city. Our investigations include an impact assessment of energy recovery and resource utilisation in the transition to a hydrogen economy with regard to the inclusion of greywater and consideration of emissions. Additionally sensitivity analyses are performed in order to assess the complexity level of energy recovery. The results demonstrate that waste and water energy recovery can provide high contributions to energy generation. Furthermore greywater use can be vital to cover the water demands in scarcity periods thus saving potable water and enabling the use of technology. Regarding the transition to hydrogen technologies resource energy recovery and management have an even higher effect than in the original setup. However without appropriate resource management a reduction in emissions cannot be achieved. Furthermore the sensitivity analyses indicate the existence of complex relationships between energy recovery technologies and other energy system operations.
Roadmap to Achieving Sustainable Development via Green Hydrogen
Jan 2023
Publication
The conversion to renewable energy can be achieved when cities and communities start to depend on sustainable resources capable of providing for the basic needs of the community along with a reduction in the daily problems and issues that people face. These issues such as poverty hunger sanitation and economic difficulties are highlighted in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which aim to limit and eradicate these problems along with other environmental obstacles including climate change and Greenhouse Gases (GHGs). These SDGs containing 17 goals target each sector and provide propositions to solve such devastating problems. Hydrogen contributes to the targets of these sustainable developments since through its implementation in different industries the levels of GHG will drop and thus contribute to the climate change which Earth is facing. Further through the usage of such resources many job opportunities will also be developed thus enhancing the economy and lifting the status of society. This paper classifies the four different types of hydrogen and outlines the differences between them. The paper then emphasizes the importance of green hydrogen use within the shipping industry transportation and infrastructure along with economic and social development through job opportunities. Furthermore this paper provides case studies tackling green hydrogen status in the United Kingdom United States of America and European Union as well as Africa United Arab of Emirates and Asia. Finally challenges and recommendations concerning the green hydrogen industry are addressed. This paper aims to relate the use of green hydrogen to the direct and indirect goals of SDG.
Development of a Hydrogen Valley for Exploitation of Green Hydrogen in Central Italy
Oct 2022
Publication
Green hydrogen exploitation plays a crucial role in achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Hydrogen in fact provides a number of key benefits for the energy system due to its integrability with other clean technologies for energy production and consumption. This paper is aimed at presenting the project of recovery of an abandoned industrial area located in central Italy by developing a site for the production of green hydrogen. To this aim the analysis of the territorial and industrial context of the area allowed us to design the project phases and to define the sizing criteria of the hydrogen production plant. The results of a preliminary cost–benefit analysis show that a huge initial investment is required and that in the short term the project is sustainable only with a very large public grant. On the other hand in the long term the project is sustainable and the benefits significantly overcome the costs.
Roadmap Towards Zero Emissions, BEVs and FCEVs
Oct 2021
Publication
A “combined world” of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will create a greener transportation sector faster and cheaper than one of the solutions alone. Hydrogen Council with analytical support from McKinsey and Company published a report that highlights the complementary roles of FCEVs and BEVs in a decarbonised transportation sector.
The analysis found that each solution has comparable systemic efficiencies and similar CO2 life cycle intensity. From the vehicle user perspective FCEVs and BEVs will provide the flexibility and convenience to meet their specific context of use and geographic location. Additionally the costs of two supporting infrastructure for FCEVs and BEVs is cheaper than one infrastructure network primarily due to the reduced peak loads and avoidance of costly upgrades on the electricity grid. The report’s messages were developed in dialogue with the Observatory Group which consisted of representatives of government agencies and academia as well as associations and companies active in sectors like regenerative electricity generation electricity grid equipment manufacturing electric vehicle charging fleet management.
The paper can be found on their website.
The analysis found that each solution has comparable systemic efficiencies and similar CO2 life cycle intensity. From the vehicle user perspective FCEVs and BEVs will provide the flexibility and convenience to meet their specific context of use and geographic location. Additionally the costs of two supporting infrastructure for FCEVs and BEVs is cheaper than one infrastructure network primarily due to the reduced peak loads and avoidance of costly upgrades on the electricity grid. The report’s messages were developed in dialogue with the Observatory Group which consisted of representatives of government agencies and academia as well as associations and companies active in sectors like regenerative electricity generation electricity grid equipment manufacturing electric vehicle charging fleet management.
The paper can be found on their website.
ASSET Study on Geolocation of Hydrogen Production in the EU
Oct 2021
Publication
The modelling underpinning the scenarios for the EU long-term strategy did not include hydrogen trade. The assumption was that each Member State (MS) supplies its own needs for hydrogen and synthetic fuels. The goal of this study is to develop a model to undertake optimal geolocation of hydrogen production between MS including the possibility to trade hydrogen and therefore use the RES potential more optimally and decrease energy system costs at EU level. Specifically the new model helps to identify the geo-location of: 1. Renewable energy production (PV wind biomass hydro) 2. Location of RES and hydrogen production facilities 3. Storage infrastructure also for natural gas and storage technologies i.e. batteries pumping etc. 4. Infrastructure by road and pipeline
Everything About Hydrogen Podcast: Hydrogen Review of 2022
Oct 2022
Publication
In order to wrap Season 3 of EAH appropriately we are honored to have our most popular EAH guest back with us Alicia Eastman President and Co-Founder of Intercontinental Energy is here to help us review the big hydrogen happenings of 2022 and preview some of the most important predictions and expectations for the sector coming for 2023.
The podcast can be found on their website.
The podcast can be found on their website.
The More the Merrier? Actors and Ideas in the Evolution of Germany Hydrogen Policy Discourse
Feb 2023
Publication
Hydrogen has set high hopes for decarbonization due to its flexibility and ability to decarbonize sectors of the economy where direct electrification appears unviable. Broad hydrogen policies have therefore started to emerge. Nevertheless it is still a rather niche technology not integrated or adopted at scale and not regulated through particular policy provisions. The involved stakeholders are thus still rushing to set the agenda over the issue. All this plays out publicly and shapes the public discourse. This paper explores how the composition of stakeholders their positions and the overall discourse structure have developed and accompanied the political agenda-setting in the early public debate on hydrogen in Germany. We use discourse network analysis of media where stakeholders' claims-making is documented and their positions can be tracked over time. The public discourse on hydrogen in Germany shows the expected evolution of statements in connection with the two milestones chosen for the analyses the initiation of the Gas 2030 Dialogue and the publication of the National Hydrogen Strategy. Interestingly the discourse was comparatively feeble in the immediate aftermath of the respective milestones but intensified in a consolidation phase around half a year later. Sequencing the discourse and contextualizing its content relative to political societal and economic conditions in a diachronic way is essential because it helps to avoid misinterpreting the development of stakeholders' standpoints as conflict-driven rather than mere repositioning. Thus we observed no discourse “polarization” even though potentially polarizing issues were already present in the debate.
Potential of Producing Green Hydrogen in Jordan
Nov 2022
Publication
Green hydrogen is becoming an increasingly important energy supply source worldwide. The great potential for the use of hydrogen as a sustainable energy source makes it an attractive energy carrier. In this paper we discuss the potential of producing green hydrogen in Jordan. Aqaba located in the south of Jordan was selected to study the potential for producing green hydrogen due to its proximity to a water source (i.e. the Red Sea). Two models were created for two electrolyzer types using MATLAB. The investigated electrolyzers were alkaline water (ALK) and polymeric electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolyzers. The first model was used to compare the required capacity of the PV solar system using ALK and PEM from 2022 to 2025 depending on the learning curves for the development of these technologies. In addition this model was used to predict the total investment costs for the investigated electrolyzers. Then a techno-economic model was constructed to predict the feasibility of using this technology by comparing the use of a PV system and grid electricity as sources for the production of hydrogen. The net present value (NPV) and levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) were used as indicators for both models. The environmental effect according to the reduction of CO2 emissions was also taken into account. The annual production of hydrogen was 70.956 million kg. The rate of hydrogen production was 19.3 kg/s and 1783 kg/s for ALK and PEM electrolyzers respectively. The LCOH was 4.42 USD/kg and 3.13 USD/kg when applying electricity from the grid and generated by the PV system respectively. The payback period to cover the capital cost of the PV system was 11 years of the project life with a NPV of USD 441.95 million. Moreover CO2 emissions can be reduced by 3042 tons/year by using the PV as a generation source instead of fossil fuels to generate electricity. The annual savings with respect to the reduction of CO2 emissions was USD 120135.
Everything About Hydrogen Podcast: Supplying the Building Blocks of an Energy Revolution
Apr 2021
Publication
On this episode of Everything About Hydrogen the team is joined by Sam French Business Development Director at JM who spent some time speaking with us about the transition from grey hydrogen to low-carbon generation technologies and what steps the UK - and countries all over the world - to use hydrogen as part of the pathway to a sustainable energy future.
The podcast can be found on their website
The podcast can be found on their website
Future Energy Scenarios 2021
Jul 2022
Publication
Our Future Energy Scenarios (FES) draw on hundreds of experts’ views to model four credible energy pathways for Britain over coming decades. Matthew Wright our head of strategy and regulation outlines what the 2021 outlook means for consumers society and the energy system itself.<br/>This year’s Future Energy Scenarios insight reveals a glimpse of a Britain that is powered with net zero carbon emissions.<br/>Our analysis shows that our country can achieve its legally-binding carbon reduction targets: in three out of four scenarios in the analysis the country reaches net zero carbon emissions by 2050 with Leading the Way – our most ambitious scenario – achieving it in 2047 and becoming net negative by 2050.
The Socio-technical Dynamics of Net-zero Industrial Megaprojects: Outside-in and Inside-out Analyses of the Humber Industrial Cluster
Feb 2023
Publication
Although energy-intensive industries are often seen as ‘hard-to-decarbonise’ net-zero megaprojects for industrial clusters promise to improve the technical and economic feasibility of hydrogen fuel switching and carbon capture and storage (CCS). Mobilising insights from the megaproject literature this paper analyses the dynamics of an ambitious first-of-kind net-zero megaproject in the Humber industrial cluster in the United Kingdom which includes CCS and hydrogen infrastructure systems industrial fuel switching CO2 capture green and blue hydrogen production and hydrogen storage. To analyse the dynamics of this emerging megaproject the article uses a socio-technical system lens to focus on developments in technology actors and institutions. Synthesising multiple megaproject literature insights the paper develops a comprehensive framework that addresses both aggregate (‘outside-in’) developments and the endogenous (‘inside-out’) experiences and activities regarding three specific challenges: technical system integration actor coordination and institutional alignment. Drawing on an original dataset involving expert interviews (N = 46) site visits (N = 7) and document analysis the ‘outside-in’ analysis finds that the Humber megaproject has progressed rapidly from outline visions to specific technical designs enacted by new coalitions and driven by strengthening policy targets and financial support schemes. The complementary ‘inside-out’ analysis however also finds 12 alignment challenges that can delay or derail materialisation of the plans. While policies are essential aggregate drivers institutional misalignments presently also prevent project-actors from finalising design and investment decisions. Our analysis also finds important tensions between the project's high-pace delivery focus (to meet government targets) and allowing sufficient time for pilot projects learning-by-doing and design iterations.
Future Energy Scenarios 2018
Jul 2018
Publication
Welcome to our Future Energy Scenarios. These scenarios which stimulate debate and help inform the decisions that will shape our energy future have never been more important – especially when you consider the extent to which the energy landscape is being transformed.
Life Cycle Costing Approaches of Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Systems: A Literature Review
Apr 2023
Publication
Hydrogen is a versatile energy carrier which can be produced from variety of feedstocks stored and transported in various forms for multi-functional end-uses in transportation energy and manufacturing sectors. Several regional national and supra-national climate policy frameworks emphasize the need value and importance of Fuel cell and Hydrogen (FCH) technologies for deep and sector-wide decarbonization. Despite these multi-faceted advantages familiar and proven FCH technologies such as alkaline electrolysis and proton-exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) often face economic technical and societal barriers to mass-market adoption. There is no single unified standardized and globally harmonized normative definition of costs. Nevertheless the discussion and debates surrounding plausible candidates and/or constituents integral for assessing the economics and value proposition of status-quo as well as developmental FCH technologies are steadily increasing—Life Cycle Costing (LCC) being one of them if not the most important outcome of such exercises.<br/>To that end this review article seeks to improve our collective understanding of LCC of FCH technologies by scrutinizing close to a few hundred publications drawn from representative databases—SCOPUS and Web of Science encompassing several tens of technologies for production and select transportation storage and end-user utilization cases. This comprehensive review forms part of and serves as the basis for the Clean Hydrogen Partnership funded SH2E project whose ultimate goal is the methodical development a formal set of principles and guardrails for evaluating the economic environmental and social impacts of FCH technologies. Additionally the SH2E projects will also facilitate the proper comparison of different FCH technologies whilst reconciling range of technologies methodologies modelling assumptions and parameterization found in existing literature.
Price Promises, Trust Deficits and Energy Justice: Public Perceptions of Hydrogen Homes
Oct 2023
Publication
In an era characterised by political instability economic uncertainty and mounting environmental pressures hydrogen fuel is being positioned as a critical piece of the global energy security and clean energy agenda. The policy push is noteworthy in the United Kingdom where the government is targeting industrial decarbonisation via hydrogen while exploring a potential role for hydrogen-fuelled home appliances. Despite the imperative to secure social acceptance for accelerating the diffusion of low-carbon energy technologies public perceptions of hydrogen homes remain largely underexplored by the researcher community. In response this analysis draws on extensive focus group data to understand the multi-dimensional nature of social acceptance in the context of the domestic hydrogen transition. Through an integrated mixed-methods multigroup analysis the study demonstrates that socio-political and market acceptance are strongly interlinked owing to a trust deficit in the government and energy industry coupled to underlying dissatisfaction with energy markets. At the community level hydrogen homes are perceived as a potentially positive mechanism for industrial regeneration and local economic development. Households consider short-term disruptive impacts to be tolerable provided temporary disconnection from the gas grid does not exceed three days. However to strengthen social acceptance clearer communication is needed regarding the spatial dynamics and equity implications of the transition. The analysis concludes that existing trust deficits will need to be overcome which entails fulfilling not only a ‘price promise’ on the cost of hydrogen appliances but also enacting a ‘price pledge’ on energy bills. These deliverables are fundamental to securing social acceptance for hydrogen homes.
Divergent Consumer Preferences and Visions for Cooking and Heating Technologies in the United Kingdom: Make Our Homes Clean, Safe, Warm and Smart!
Aug 2023
Publication
Decarbonising the global housing stock is imperative for reaching climate change targets. In the United Kingdom hydrogen is currently being tested as a replacement fuel for natural gas which could be used to supply low-carbon energy to parts of the country. Transitioning the residential sector towards a net-zero future will call for an inclusive understanding of consumer preferences for emerging technologies. In response this paper explores consumer attitudes towards domestic cooking and heating technologies and energy appliances of the future which could include a role for hydrogen hobs and boilers in UK homes. To access qualitative evidence on this topic we conducted ten online focus groups (N = 58) with members of the UK public between February and April 2022. The study finds that existing gas users wish to preserve the best features of gas cooking such as speed responsiveness and controllability but also desire the potential safety and aesthetic benefits of electric systems principally induction hobs. Meanwhile future heating systems should ensure thermal comfort ease of use energy efficiency and smart performance while providing space savings and noise reduction alongside demonstrable green benefits. Mixed-methods multigroup analysis suggests divergence between support levels for hydrogen homes which implies a degree of consumer heterogeneity. Foremost we find that domestic hydrogen acceptance is positively associated with interest and engagement with renewable energy and fuel poverty pressures. We conclude that internalising the perspectives of consumers is critical to enabling constructive socio-technical imaginaries for low-carbon domestic energy futures.
Energy System Changes in 1.5 °C, Well Below 2 °C and 2 °C Scenarios
Dec 2018
Publication
Meeting the Paris Agreement's goal to limit global warming to well below 2 °C and pursuing efforts towards 1.5 °C is likely to require more rapid and fundamental energy system changes than the previously-agreed 2 °C target. Here we assess over 200 integrated assessment model scenarios which achieve 2 °C and well-below 2 °C targets drawn from the IPCC's fifth assessment report database combined with a set of 1.5 °C scenarios produced in recent years. We specifically assess differences in a range of near-term indicators describing CO2 emissions reductions pathways changes in primary energy and final energy across the economy's major sectors in addition to more detailed metrics around the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) negative emissions low-carbon electricity and hydrogen.
Hydrogen Towards Sustainable Transition: A Review of Production, Economic, Environmental Impact and Scaling Factors
Sep 2023
Publication
Currently meeting the global energy demand is largely dependent on fossil fuels such as natural gas coal and oil. Fossil fuels represent a danger to the Earth’s environment and its biological systems. The utilisation of these fuels results in a rise in atmospheric CO2 levels which in turn triggers global warming and adverse changes in the climate. Furthermore these represent finite energy resources that will eventually deplete. There is a pressing need to identify and harness renewable energy sources as a replacement for fossil fuels in the near future. This shift is expected to have a minimal environmental impact and would contribute to ensuring energy security. Hydrogen is considered a highly desirable fuel option with the potential to substitute depleting hydrocarbon resources. This concise review explores diverse methods of renewable hydrogen production with a primary focus on solar wind geothermal and mainly water-splitting techniques such as electrolysis thermolysis photolysis and biomass-related processes. It addresses their limitations and key challenges hampering the global hydrogen economy’s growth including clean value chain creation storage transportation production costs standards and investment risks. The study concludes with research recommendations to enhance production efficiencies and policy suggestions for governments to mitigate investment risks while scaling up the hydrogen economy.
Does Time Matter? A Multi-level Assessment of Delayed Energy Transitions and Hydrogen Pathways in Norway
Mar 2023
Publication
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has undeniably disrupted the EU's energy system and created a window of opportunity for an acceleration of the low-carbon energy transition in Europe. As the trading bloc's biggest gas supplier Norway faces the imminent threat of fast-depleting gas reserves and declining value for its exports. Norway is trying to beat the clock by aggressively exploring more petroleum therefore delaying its energy transition. In anticipation of the future drop in gas prices Norway is counting on blue hydrogen to valorise its gas resources before gradually shifting to green hydrogen export. Against this background this article seeks to understand how changes in the EU's energy landscape have affected the energy export sector and low-carbon hydrogen export developments in Norway from a multi-level perspective. Using the exploratory scenario approach the article assesses the implications of the different petroleum exploration outcomes on the development of the low-carbon hydrogen export market in Norway. The findings show that despite gas discoveries there is an urgent need for a phase-out plan for the Norwegian petroleum sector. For low-carbon hydrogen to play an important role in Norway's energy transition time is of the essence and action needs to be taken during this window of opportunity. An industrial sector and its value chain could take 25 years to transform which means that actions and policies for a full transformation pathway need to take place in Norway by 2025 to be ready for a climate-neutral Europe in 2050.
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