Policy & Socio-Economics
On the Feasibility of Direct Hydrogen Utilisation in a Fossil-free Europe
Oct 2022
Publication
Hydrogen is often suggested as a universal fuel that can replace fossil fuels. This paper analyses the feasibility of direct hydrogen utilisation in all energy sectors in a 100% renewable energy system for Europe in 2050 using hour-by-hour energy system analysis. Our results show that using hydrogen for heating purposes has high costs and low energy efficiency. Hydrogen for electricity production is beneficial only in limited quantities to restrict biomass consumption but increases the system costs due to losses. The transport sector results show that hydrogen is an expensive alternative to liquid e-fuels and electrified transport due to high infrastructure costs and respectively low energy efficiency. The industry sector may benefit from hydrogen to reduce biomass at a lower cost than in the other energy sectors but electrification and e-methane may be more feasible. Seen from a systems perspective hydrogen will play a key role in future renewable energy systems but primarily as e-fuel feedstock rather than direct end-fuel in the hard-to-abate sectors.
Case Studies towards Green Transition in EU Regions: Smart Specialisation for Transformative Innovation
Oct 2022
Publication
This report analyses five case study reports in-depth across five EU countries as part of a broader analytical and critical exercise. This analytical work seeks to contribute to the development of new models for regional and local authorities aiming to boost support for Green Transition of their economies through smarter innovation policies using the smart specialisation (S3) approach. The work covered five regions from across the European Union representing a diversity of approaches to using S3 for Green Transition: the Basque Country in Spain the Centro region in Portugal the region of East and North Finland the region of Western Macedonia in Greece and the region of West Netherlands. The case studies included in this report consists of three sections on (i) Profile of the region and key development challenges; (ii) Innovation strategies and policies for green transition: incorporating societal challenges; (iii) Understanding and monitoring innovationled green transition. Drawing together the different elements presented the conclusion provides a summary overview of the case and the authors’ opinion on it.
A Global Review of the Hydrogen Energy Eco-System
Feb 2023
Publication
Climate change primarily caused by the greenhouse gases emitted as a result of the consumption of carbon-based fossil fuels is considered one of the biggest challenges that humanity has ever faced. Moreover the Ukrainian crisis in 2022 has complicated the global energy and food status quo more than ever. The permanency of this multifaceted fragility implies the need for increased efforts to have energy independence and requires long-term solutions without fossil fuels through the use of clean zero-carbon renewables energies. Hydrogen technologies have a strong potential to emerge as an energy eco-system in its production-storage-distribution-utilization stages with its synergistic integration with solar-wind-hydraulic-nuclear and other zero-carbon clean renewable energy resources and with the existing energy infrastructure. In this paper we provide a global review of hydrogen energy need related policies practices and state of the art for hydrogen production transportation storage and utilization.
Boosting Hydrogen through a European Hydrogen Bank
Mar 2023
Publication
Hydrogen is indispensable to decarbonise European industry and reach the EU’s 2030 climate targets and 2050 climate neutrality. It is one of the key technologies of Europe’s Net Zero Industry Act. By scaling up its production we will reduce the use of fossil fuels in European industries and serve the needs of hard-to-electrify sectors.
An Analysis of Renewable Energy Sources for Developing a Sustainable and Low-Carbon Hydrogen Economy in China
Apr 2023
Publication
A significant effort is required to reduce China’s dependency on fossil fuels while also supporting worldwide efforts to reduce climate change and develop hydrogen energy systems. A hydrogen economy must include renewable energy sources (RESs) which can offer a clean and sustainable energy source for producing hydrogen. This study uses an integrated fuzzy AHP–fuzzy TOPSIS method to evaluate and rank renewable energy sources for developing a hydrogen economy in China. This is a novel approach because it can capture the uncertainty and vagueness in the decision-making process and provide a comprehensive and robust evaluation of the alternatives. Moreover it considers multiple criteria and sub-criteria that reflect the environmental economic technical social and political aspects of RESs from the perspective of a hydrogen economy. This study identified five major criteria fifteen sub-criteria and six RES alternatives for hydrogen production. This integrated approach uses fuzzy AHP to evaluate and rank the criteria and sub-criteria and fuzzy TOPSIS to identify the most suitable and feasible RES. The results show that environmental economic and technical criteria are the most important criteria. Solar wind and hydropower are the top three RES alternatives that are most suitable and feasible. Furthermore biomass geo-thermal and tidal energy were ranked lower which might be due to the limitations and challenges in their adoption and performance in the context of the criteria and sub-criteria used for the analysis. This study’s findings add to the literature on guidelines to strategize for renewable energy adoption for the hydrogen economy in China.
EU Carbon Diplomacy: Assessing Hydrogen Security and Policy Impact in Australia and Germany
Dec 2021
Publication
Hydrogen is fast becoming a new international “super fuel” to accelerate global climate change ambitions. This paper has two inter-weaving themes. Contextually it focuses on the potential impact of the EU’s new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on fossil fuel-generated as opposed to green hydrogen imports. The CBAM as a transnational carbon adjustment mechanism has the potential to impact international trade in energy. It seeks both a level playing field between imports and EU internal markets (subject to ambitious EU climate change policies) and to encourage emissions reduction laggards through its “carbon diplomacy”. Countries without a price on carbon will be charged for embodied carbon in their supply chains when they export to the EU. Empirically we focus on two hydrogen export/import case studies: Australia as a non-EU state with ambitions to export hydrogen and Germany as an EU Member State reliant on energy imports. Energy security is central to energy trade debates but needs to be conceptualized beyond supply and demand economics to include geopolitics just transitions and the impacts of border carbon taxes and EU carbon diplomacy. Accordingly we apply and further develop a seven-dimension energy security-justice framework to the examples of brown blue and green hydrogen export/import hydrogen operations with varying carbon-intensity supply chains in Australia and Germany. Applying the framework we identify potential impact—risks and opportunities—associated with identified brown blue and green hydrogen export/import projects in the two countries. This research contributes to the emerging fields of international hydrogen trade supply chains and international carbon diplomacy and develops a potentially useful seven-dimension energy security-justice framework for energy researchers and policy analysts.
Impacts of Green Hydrogen for Steel, Ammonia, and Long-distance Transport on the Cost of Meeting Electricity, Heat, Cold, and Hydrogen Demand in 145 Countries Running on 100% Wind-water-solar
May 2023
Publication
As the world moves to clean renewable energy questions arise as to how best to produce and use hydrogen. Here we propose using hydrogen produced only by electrolysis with clean renewable electricity (green hydrogen). We then test the impact of producing such hydrogen intermittently versus continuously for steel and ammonia manufacturing and long-distance transport via fuel cells on the cost of matching electricity heat cold and hydrogen demand with supply and storage on grids worldwide. An estimated 79 32 and 91 Tg-H2/y of green hydrogen are needed in 2050 among 145 countries for steel ammonia and long-distance transport respectively. Producing and compressing such hydrogen for these processes may consume ~12.1% of the energy needed for end-use sectors in these countries after they transition to 100% wind-water-solar (WWS) in all such sectors. This is less than the energy needed for fossil fuels to power the same processes. Due to the variability of WWS electricity producing green hydrogen intermittently rather than continuously thus with electrolyzer use factors significantly below unity (0.2–0.65) may reduce overall energy costs with 100% WWS. This result is subject to model uncertainties but appears robust. In sum grid operators should incorporate intermittent green hydrogen production and use in planning.
The Impact of the Energy Crisis on the UK's Net Zero Transition
Mar 2023
Publication
Recent drastic increases in natural gas prices have brought into sharp focus the inherent tensions between net zero transitions energy security and affordability. We investigate the impact of different fuel prices on the energy system transition explicitly accounting for the increasingly coupled power and heating sectors and also incorporate the emerging hydrogen sector. The aim is to identify low-regret decisions and optimal energy system transitions for different fuel prices. We observe that the evolution of the heating sector is highly sensitive to the gas price whereas the composition of the power sector is not qualitatively impacted by gas prices. We also observe that bioenergy plays an important role in the energy system transition and the balance between gas price and biomass prices determines the optimal technology portfolios. The future evolution of the prices of these two resources is highly uncertain and future energy systems must be resilient to these uncertainties.
Economic Complexity of Green Hydrogen Production Technologies - A Trade Data-based Analysis of Country-sepcific Industrial Preconditions
May 2023
Publication
Countries with high energy demand but limited renewable energy potential are planning to meet part of their future energy needs by importing green hydrogen. For potential exporting countries in addition to sufficient renewable resources industrial preconditions are also relevant for the successful implementation of green hydrogen production value chains. A list of 36 “Green H2 Products” needed for stand-alone hydrogen production plants was defined and their economic complexity was analyzed using international trade data from 1995 to 2019. These products were found to be comparatively complex to produce and represent an opportunity for countries to enter new areas of the product space through green diversification. Large differences were revealed between countries in terms of industrial preconditions and their evolution over time. A detailed analysis of nine MENA countries showed that Turkey and Tunisia already possess industrial know-how in various green hydrogen technology components and perform only slightly worse than potential European competitors while Algeria Libya and Saudi Arabia score the lowest in terms of calculated hydrogen-related green complexity. These findings are supported by statistical tests showing that countries with a higher share of natural resources rents in their gross domestic product score significantly lower on economic and green complexity. The results thus provide new perspectives for assessing the capabilities of potential hydrogen-producing countries which may prove useful for policymakers and investors. Simultaneously this paper contributes to the theory of economic complexity by applying its methods to a new subset of products and using a dataset with long-term coverage.
An Analysis of the Potential of Hydrogen Energy Technology on Demand Side Based on a Carbon Tax: A Case Study in Japan
Dec 2022
Publication
Hydrogen energy is considered one of the main measures of zero carbonization in energy systems but high equipment and hydrogen costs hinder the development of hydrogen energy technology. The objectives of this study are to quantify the environmental advantages of hydrogen energy through a carbon tax and study the application potential of hydrogen energy technology in a regional distributed energy system (RDES). In this study various building types in the smart community covered by Japan’s first hydrogen energy pipeline are used as an example. First ten buildings of five types are selected as the research objectives. Subsequently two comparative system models of a regional distributed hydrogen energy system (RDHES) and an RDES were established. Then by studying the optimal RDHES and RDES configuration and combining the prediction of future downward trends of fuel cell (FC) costs and energy carbon emissions the application effect of FC and hydrogen storage (HS) technologies on the demand side was analyzed. Finally the adaptability of the demand-side hydrogen energy system was studied by analyzing the load characteristics of different types of buildings. The results show that when the FC price is reduced to 1.5 times that of the internal combustion engine (ICE) the existing carbon tax system can sufficiently support the RDHES in gaining economic advantages in some regions. Notably when the carbon emissions of the urban energy system are reduced the RDHES demonstrates stronger anti-risk ability and has greater suitability for promotion in museums and shopping malls. The conclusions obtained in this study provide quantitative support for hydrogen energy promotion policies on the regional demand side and serve as a theoretical reference for the design and adaptability research of RDHESs.
Green Hydrogen in Europe: Do Strategies Meet Expectations?
Dec 2021
Publication
The possibility of producing hydrogen as an energy carrier or raw material through electrolysis of water so-called green hydrogen has been on the table as a technological option for a long time. However low conversion efficiency and a dubious climate balance have stood in the way of large-scale application ever since. Within the last three to four years however this view has changed significantly. In addition to technological improvements the increasing speed of the expansion of volatile renewable energies in Europe has also contributed to this since in principle a nearly climate-neutral utilisation of excess generation is possible through the use of hydrogen as an energy carrier in electrolysis. In addition hydrogen or products derived from it can be used in a variety of ways as a final energy carrier in all energy-intensive activities: industry heating and transport. For this reason green hydrogen production could play a key role in interconnecting all energy consuming sectors (sector coupling) a long-term goal necessary for achieving the decarbonisation of the European economy.
The Hydrogen Bike: Communicating the Production and Safety of Green Hydrogen
Mar 2021
Publication
As the international community aims to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels green hydrogen has great potential to replace methane as a clean source of fuel. A novel public engagement activity The Hydrogen Bike has been developed to demonstrate the production and use of green hydrogen from water. The aim of the activity is to educate entertain and inform young people and adults so that they have an opportunity to form an opinion about the use of hydrogen as a fuel. Using a novel two-part data collection system participants are briefly surveyed for their opinion on hydrogen before and after participating in The Hydrogen Bike activity. Through this we have found that most participants (73%) are considered to have no opinion or a neutral opinion on hydrogen before participating in The Hydrogen Bike activity. After participation 88% of those who were originally neutral or had no opinion on hydrogen self-reported a positive feeling about hydrogen. The method of data collection was quick intuitive and suitable for an audience attracted from passing footfall.
Opportunities for Production and Utilization of Green Hydrogen in the Philippines
Jun 2021
Publication
The Philippines is exploring different alternative sources of energy to become energy-independent while significantly reducing the country’s greenhouse gas emissions. Green hydrogen from renewable energy is one of the most sustainable alternatives with its application as an energy carrier and as a source of clean and sustainable energy as well as raw material for various industrial processes. As a preliminary study in the country this paper aims to explore different production and utilization routes for a green hydrogen economy in the Philippines. Production from electrolysis includes various available renewable sources consisting of geothermal hydropower wind solar and biomass as well as ocean technology and nuclear energy when they become available in the future. Different utilization routes include the application of green hydrogen in the transportation power generation industry and utility sectors. The results of this study can be incorporated in the development of the pathways for hydrogen economy in the Philippines and can be applied in other emerging economies.
Towards the Integration of Flexible Green Hydrogen Demand and Production in Ireland: Opportunities, Barriers, and Recommendations
Dec 2022
Publication
Ireland’s Climate Action Plan 2021 has set out ambitious targets for decarbonization across the energy transport heating and agriculture sectors. The Climate Action Plan followed the Climate Act 2021 which committed Ireland to a legally binding target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions no later than 2050 and a reduction of 51% by 2030. Green hydrogen is recognized as one of the most promising technologies for enabling the decarbonization targets of economies across the globe but significant challenges remain to its large-scale adoption. This research systematically investigates the barriers and opportunities to establishing a green hydrogen economy by 2050 in Ireland by means of an analysis of the policies supporting the optimal development of an overall green hydrogen eco-system in the context of other decarbonizing technologies including green hydrogen production using renewable generation distribution and delivery and final consumption. The outcome of this analysis is a set of clear recommendations for the policymaker that will appropriately support the development of a green hydrogen market and eco-system in parallel with the development of other more mature low-carbon technologies. The analysis has been supplemented by an open “call for evidence” which gathered relevant information about the future policy and roles of hydrogen involving the most prominent stakeholders of hydrogen in Ireland. Furthermore the recommendations and conclusions from the research have been validated by this mechanism.
A Roadmap with Strategic Policy toward Green Hydrogen Production: The Case of Iraq
Mar 2023
Publication
The study proposes a comprehensive framework to support the development of green hydrogen production including the establishment of legal and regulatory frameworks investment incentives and public-private partnerships. Using official and public data from government agencies the potential of renewable energy sources is studied and some reasonable assumptions are made so that a full study and evaluation of hydrogen production in the country can be done. The information here proves beyond a doubt that renewable energy makes a big difference in making green hydrogen. This makes the country a leader in the field of making green hydrogen. Based on what it found this research suggests a way for the country to have a green hydrogen economy by 2050. It is done in three steps: using green hydrogen as a fuel for industry using green hydrogen in fuel cells and selling hydrogen. On the other hand the research found that making green hydrogen that can be used in Iraq and other developing countries is hard. There are technological economic and social problems as well as policy consequences that need to be solved.
OIES Podcast - China and Hydrogen: A Tale of Three Cities
Apr 2023
Publication
China is by far the world’s largest producer and consumer of hydrogen mostly from coal and other fossil fuels and the country has an ambitious hydrogen strategy. In this podcast we dive into the provincial strategies on hydrogen in China and specifically discuss a recent paper published by the Institute entitled China’s hydrogen development: A tale of three cities. The paper looks at the experiences and plans of the pilot hydrogen clusters located in Datong Shanxi province Chengdu in Sichuan province and Zhangjiakou in the northern part of Hebei province which surrounds Beijing. In this podcast we are speaking with the paper’s author Arabella Miller-Wang recently an Aramco fellow at the Institute and also a Research Assistant at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment of The University of Oxford as well as with Michal Meidan director of the China Energy Programme at OIES and with Martin Lambert who heads hydrogen research at the OIES.
The podcast can be found on their website.
The podcast can be found on their website.
International Experience of Carbon Neutrality and Prospects of Key Technologies: Lessons for China
Feb 2023
Publication
Carbon neutrality (or climate neutrality) has been a global consensus and international experience exchange is essential. Given the differences in the degree of social development resource endowment and technological level each country should build a carbon-neutral plan based on its national conditions. Compared with other major developed countries (e.g. Germany the United States and Japan) China's carbon neutrality has much bigger challenges including a heavy and time-pressured carbon reduction task and the current energy structure that is over-dependent on fossil fuels. Here we provide a comprehensive review of the status and prospects of the key technologies for low-carbon near-zero carbon and negative carbon emissions. Technological innovations associated with coal oil-gas and hydrogen industries and their future potential in reducing carbon emissions are particularly explained and assessed. Based on integrated analysis of international experience from the world's major developed countries in-depth knowledge of the current and future technologies and China's energy and ecological resources potential five lessons for the implementation of China's carbon neutrality are proposed: (1) transformation of energy production pattern from a coal-dominated pattern to a diversified renewable energy pattern; (2) renewable power-to-X and large-scale underground energy storage; (3) integration of green hydrogen production storage transport and utilization; (4) construction of clean energy systems based on smart sector coupling (ENSYSCO); (5) improvement of ecosystem carbon sinks both in nationwide forest land and potential desert in Northwest China. This paper provides an international perspective for a better understanding of the challenges and opportunities of carbon neutrality in China and can serve as a theoretical foundation for medium-long term carbon neutral policy formulation.
Greenhouse Gas Emission Dynamics of Saudi Arabia: Potential of Hydrogen Fuel for Emission Footprint Reduction
Mar 2023
Publication
The growth of population gross domestic product (GDP) and urbanization have led to an increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). The leading GHG-emitting sectors are electricity generation road transportation cement chemicals refinery iron and steel. However the KSA is working to lead the global energy sustainability campaign to reach net zero GHG emissions by 2060. In addition the country is working to establish a framework for the circular carbon economy (CCE) in which hydrogen acts as a transversal facilitator. To cut down on greenhouse gas emissions the Kingdom is also building several facilities such as the NEOM green hydrogen project. The main objective of the article is to critically review the current GHG emission dynamics of the KSA including major GHG emission driving forces and prominent emission sectors. Then the role of hydrogen in GHG emission reduction will be explored. Finally the researchers and decision makers will find the helpful discussions and recommendations in deciding on appropriate mitigation measures and technologies.
Green Hydrogen Production and Its Land Tenure Consequences in Africa: An Interpretive Review
Sep 2023
Publication
Globally a green hydrogen economy rush is underway and many companies investors governments and environmentalists consider it as an energy source that could foster the global energy transition. The enormous potential for hydrogen production for domestic use and export places Africa in the spotlight in the green hydrogen economy discourse. This discourse remains unsettled regarding how natural resources such as land and water can be sustainably utilized for such a resource-intensive project and what implications this would have. This review argues that green hydrogen production (GHP) in Africa has consequences where land resources (and their associated natural resources) are concerned. It discusses the current trends in GHP in Africa and the possibilities for reducing any potential pressures it may put on land and other resource use on the continent. The approach of the review is interpretive and hinges on answering three questions concerning the what why and how of GHP and its land consequences in Africa. The review is based on 41 studies identified from Google Scholar and sources identified via snowballed recommendations from experts. The GHP implications identified relate to land and water use mining-related land stress and environmental ecological and land-related socioeconomic consequences. The paper concludes that GHP may not foster the global energy transition as is being opined by many renewable energy enthusiasts but rather could help foster this transition as part of a greener energy mix. It notes that African countries that have the potential for GHP require the institutionalization of or a change in their existing approaches to land-related energy governance systems in order to achieve success.
Green Hydrogen Potential in Tropical Countries: The Colombian Case
Mar 2023
Publication
Tropical countries can approach their natural resources to produce low-carbon H2 from solar wind hydro and biomass resources to satisfy their domestic demand and to export it. To do so Colombia published the National Hydrogen Roadmap in which green H2 was prioritized. This study estimates Colombia's potential to produce green H2 and a timeline of scenarios displaying the required installed capacity capital investment and environmental analysis related to water utilization and CO2 capture. Accordingly Colombia can produce H2 at a rate of 9 Mt/a by 2050 by installing 121 GW renewables while processing 303 Mt/a of residual biomass. In this scenario Colombia's share of the H2 international market can reach 1.2% with a cumulative investment of over 244 billion USD by 2050. This study provides insights into potential global resources for low-carbon H2 generation.
Renewable Heating and Cooling Pathways - Towards Full Decarbonisation by 2050
Feb 2023
Publication
With the adoption of the EU Climate Law in 2021 the EU has set itself a binding target to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent compared to 1990 levels by 2030. To support the increased ambition the EU Commission adopted proposals for revising the key directives and regulations addressing energy efficiency renewable energies and greenhouse gas emissions in the Fit for 55 package. The heating and cooling (H&C) sector plays a key role for reaching the EU energy and climate targets. H&C accounts for about 50 percent of the final energy consumption in the EU and the sector is largely based on fossil fuels. In 2021 the share of renewable energies in H&C reached 23%.
Global Hydrogen Flows
Oct 2022
Publication
Authored by the Hydrogen Council in collaboration with McKinsey and Company Global Hydrogen Flows addresses the midstream challenge of aligning and optimizing global supply and demand. It finds that trade can reduce overall system costs.
In doing so it provides a perspective on how the global trade of hydrogen and derivatives including hydrogen carriers ammonia methanol synthetic kerosene and green steel (which uses hydrogen in its production) can develop as well as the investments needed to unlock the full potential of global hydrogen and derivatives trade.
Our hope is that this report offers stakeholders – suppliers buyers original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) investors and governments – a thorough and quantitative perspective that will help them make the decisions required to accelerate the uptake of hydrogen.
Key messages from the report:
Hydrogen and its derivatives will become heavily traded: 400 out of the 660 million tons (MT) of hydrogen needed for carbon neutrality by 2050 will be transported over long distances with 190 MT crossing international borders.
In a cost-optimal world around 50% of trade uses pipelines while synthetic fuels ammonia and sponge iron transported on ships account for approximately 45%. Europe and countries in the Far East will rely on imports while North America and China are mostly self-reliant.
Trade has huge benefits: It can lower the cost of hydrogen supply by 25% or as much as US$6 trillion of investments from now until 2050. This will accelerate the hydrogen transition which can abate 80 gigatons of CO2 until 2050.
The paper can be found on their website.
In doing so it provides a perspective on how the global trade of hydrogen and derivatives including hydrogen carriers ammonia methanol synthetic kerosene and green steel (which uses hydrogen in its production) can develop as well as the investments needed to unlock the full potential of global hydrogen and derivatives trade.
Our hope is that this report offers stakeholders – suppliers buyers original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) investors and governments – a thorough and quantitative perspective that will help them make the decisions required to accelerate the uptake of hydrogen.
Key messages from the report:
Hydrogen and its derivatives will become heavily traded: 400 out of the 660 million tons (MT) of hydrogen needed for carbon neutrality by 2050 will be transported over long distances with 190 MT crossing international borders.
In a cost-optimal world around 50% of trade uses pipelines while synthetic fuels ammonia and sponge iron transported on ships account for approximately 45%. Europe and countries in the Far East will rely on imports while North America and China are mostly self-reliant.
Trade has huge benefits: It can lower the cost of hydrogen supply by 25% or as much as US$6 trillion of investments from now until 2050. This will accelerate the hydrogen transition which can abate 80 gigatons of CO2 until 2050.
The paper can be found on their website.
Actual Quality Changes in Natural Resource and Gas Grid Use in Prospective Hydrogen Technology Roll-Out in the World and Russia
Oct 2023
Publication
About 95% of current hydrogen production uses technologies involving primary fossil resources. A minor part is synthesized by low-carbon and close-to-zero-carbon-footprint methods using RESs. The significant expansion of low-carbon hydrogen energy is considered to be a part of the “green transition” policies taking over in technologically leading countries. Projects of hydrogen synthesis from natural gas with carbon capture for subsequent export to European and Asian regions poor in natural resources are considered promising by fossil-rich countries. Quality changes in natural resource use and gas grids will include (1) previously developed scientific groundwork and production facilities for hydrogen energy to stimulate the use of existing natural gas grids for hydrogen energy transport projects; (2) existing infrastructure for gas filling stations in China and Russia to allow the expansion of hydrogen-fuel-cell vehicles (HFCVs) using typical “mini-plant” projects of hydrogen synthesis using methane conversion technology; (3) feasibility testing for different hydrogen synthesis plants at medium and large scales using fossil resources (primarily natural gas) water and atomic energy. The results of this study will help focus on the primary tasks for quality changes in natural resource and gas grid use. Investments made and planned in hydrogen energy are assessed.
Comparative Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Analysis of Clean Hydrogen Pathways: Assessing Domestic Production and Overseas Import in South Korea
Sep 2023
Publication
The development of a Clean Hydrogen Standard based on life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is gaining prominence on the international agenda. Thus a framework for assessing life-cycle GHG emissions for clean hydrogen pathways is necessary. In this study the comprehensive datasets and effects of various scenarios encompassing hydrogen production carriers (liquid hydrogen ammonia methylcyclohexane) carbon capture and storage (CCS) target analysis year (2021 2030) to reflect trends of greening grid electricity and potential import countries on aggregated life-cycle GHG emissions were presented. South Korea was chosen as a case study region and the low-carbon alternatives were suggested for reducing aggregated emissions to meet the Korean standard (5 kgCO2e/kgH2). First capturing and storing nearly entire (>90%) CO2 from fossil- and waste-based production pathways is deemed essential. Second when repurposing the use of hydrogen that was otherwise used internally applying a penalty for substitution is appropriate leading to results notably exceeding the standard. Third for electrolysis-based hydrogen using renewable or nuclear electricity is essential. Lastly when hydrogen is imported in a well-to-point-of-delivery (WtP) perspective using renewable electricity during hydrogen conversion into a carrier and reusing the produced hydrogen for endothermic reconversion reaction are recommended. By implementing the developed calculation framework to other countries' cases it was observed that importing hydrogen to regions having scope of WtP or above (e.g. well-to-wheel) might not meet the threshold due to additional emissions from importation processes. Additionally for hydrogen carriers undergoing the endothermic reconversion the approach to reduce WtP emissions (reusing produced hydrogen) may conflict with the approach to reduce well-to-gate (WtG) emission (using external fossilbased fuel). The discrepancy highlights the need to set a broader scope of emissions assessment to effectively promote the life-cycle emission reduction efforts of hydrogen importers. This study contributes to the field of clean hydrogen GHG emission assessment offering a robust database and calculation framework while addressing the effects of greening grid electricity and CCS implementation proposing low-carbon alternatives and GHG assessment scope to achieve global GHG reduction.
Route-to-Market Strategy for Low-carbon Hydrogen from Natural Gas in the Permian Basin
Aug 2023
Publication
This paper investigates the untapped potential of the Permian Basin a multifaceted energy axis in Texas and adjoining states in the emerging era of decarbonization. Aligned with current policy directives on regional hydrogen hubs this study explores the viability of developing a hydrogen energy hub in the Permian Basin thereby producing low-carbon intensity hydrogen from natural gas in the Basin and transporting it to the Greater Houston area. Diverging from existing literature this study provides an integrated techno-economic evaluation of the entire hydrogen value chain in the Permian Basin encompassing production storage and transportation. Furthermore it comparatively analyzes the scenario of interest against an optimized base scenario thereby underlining comparative advantages and disadvantages. The paper concludes that the delivered cost of Permian based low-carbon intensity hydrogen to the Greater Houston area is $1.85/kg benchmarked to the scenario with hydrogen produced close to the Greater Houston area and delivered at $1.42/kg. Our findings reveal that Permian-based low-carbon intensity hydrogen production can achieve cost savings in feedstock ($0.25/kg) and potentially accrue a higher production tax credit due to a shorter gas supply chain to production ($0.33/kg). Nevertheless a significant cost barrier is the expense of long-haul pipeline transport ($0.90/kg) from the Permian Basin to Houston as opposed to local production. Despite the obstacles the study identifies a potential breakeven solution where increasing the production scale to at least 412000 metric ton per year (about 3 steam reforming plants) in the Permian Basin can effectively lower costs in the transport sector. Hence a scaled-up production can mitigate the cost difference and establish the Permian Basin as a competitive player in the hydrogen market. In conclusion a SWOT analysis presents Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats associated with Permian-based hydrogen production.
‘Greening’ an Oil Exporting Country: A Hydrogen, Wind and Gas Turbine Case Study
Feb 2024
Publication
In the quest for achieving decarbonisation it is essential for different sectors of the economy to collaborate and invest significantly. This study presents an innovative approach that merges technological insights with philosophical considerations at a national scale with the intention of shaping the national policy and practice. The aim of this research is to assist in formulating decarbonisation strategies for intricate economies. Libya a major oil exporter that can diversify its energy revenue sources is used as the case study. However the principles can be applied to develop decarbonisation strategies across the globe. The decarbonisation framework evaluated in this study encompasses wind-based renewable electricity hydrogen and gas turbine combined cycles. A comprehensive set of both official and unofficial national data was assembled integrated and analysed to conduct this study. The developed analytical model considers a variety of factors including consumption in different sectors geographical data weather patterns wind potential and consumption trends amongst others. When gaps and inconsistencies were encountered reasonable assumptions and projections were used to bridge them. This model is seen as a valuable foundation for developing replacement scenarios that can realistically guide production and user engagement towards decarbonisation. The aim of this model is to maintain the advantages of the current energy consumption level assuming a 2% growth rate and to assess changes in energy consumption in a fully green economy. While some level of speculation is present in the results important qualitative and quantitative insights emerge with the key takeaway being the use of hydrogen and the anticipated considerable increase in electricity demand. Two scenarios were evaluated: achieving energy self-sufficiency and replacing current oil exports with hydrogen exports on an energy content basis. This study offers for the first time a quantitative perspective on the wind-based infrastructure needs resulting from the evaluation of the two scenarios. In the first scenario energy requirements were based on replacing fossil fuels with renewable sources. In contrast the second scenario included maintaining energy exports at levels like the past substituting oil with hydrogen. The findings clearly demonstrate that this transition will demand great changes and substantial investments. The primary requirements identified are 20529 or 34199 km2 of land for wind turbine installations (for self-sufficiency and exports) and 44 single-shaft 600 MW combined-cycle hydrogen-fired gas turbines. This foundational analysis represents the commencement of the research investment and political agenda regarding the journey to achieving decarbonisation for a country.
A Hydrogen Vision for the UK
Apr 2023
Publication
This report shows how the infrastructure that exists today can evolve from one based on the supply of fossil fuels to one providing the backbone of a clean hydrogen system. The ambitious government hydrogen targets across the UK will only be met with clarity focus and partnership. The gas networks are ready to play their part in the UK’s energy future. They have a plan know what is needed to deliver it and are taking the necessary steps to do just that.
Distributional Trends in the Generation and End-Use Sector of Low-Carbon Hydrogen Plants
Mar 2023
Publication
This paper uses established and recently introduced methods from the applied mathematics and statistics literature to study trends in the end-use sector and the capacity of low-carbon hydrogen projects in recent and upcoming decades. First we examine distributions in plants over time for various end-use sectors and classify them according to metric discrepancy observing clear similarity across all industry sectors. Next we compare the distribution of usage sectors between different continents and examine the changes in sector distribution over time. Finally we judiciously apply several regression models to analyse the association between various predictors and the capacity of global hydrogen projects. Across our experiments we see a welcome exponential growth in the capacity of zero-carbon hydrogen plants and significant growth of new and planned hydrogen plants in the 2020’s across every sector.
Towards Green Hydrogen? - A Comparison of German and African Visions and Expectations in the Context of the H2Atlas-Africa Project
Sep 2023
Publication
Green hydrogen promises to be critical in achieving a sustainable and renewable energy transition. As green hydrogen is produced with renewables green hydrogen could become an energy storage medium of the future and even substitute the current unsustainable grey or blue hydrogen used in the industry. Bringing this transition into reality for instance in Germany there are visions to rapidly build hydrogen facilities in Africa and export the produced green hydrogen to Europe. One problem however is that these visions presumably conflict with the visions of actors within Africa. Therefore this study aims to provide an initial assessment of African stakeholders’ visions for future energy exports and renewable energy expectations. By comparing visions from Germany and Africa this assessment was conducted to identify differences in green energy and hydrogen visions that could lead to conflict and similarities that could be the basis for cooperation. The National Hydrogen Strategy outlines the German visions which clarifies that Germany will have to import green hydrogen to meet its green transition target. In this context of future energy export demand a partnership between German and African researchers on assessing green hydrogen potentials in Africa started. The African visions were explored by surveying the partners from different African countries working on the project. The results revealed that while both sides see the need for an immediate transition to renewable energy the African side is not envisioning the immediate export of green hydrogen. Based on the responses the partners are primarily concerned with improving the continent’s still deficient energy access for both the population and industry. Nevertheless this African perspective greatly emphasises cross-border cooperation where both sides can realise their visions. In the case of Germany that German investment could build infrastructure which would benefit the receiving African country or countries and open up the possibility for the envisioned green hydrogen export to Europe.
Correlations between Component Size Green Hydrogen Demand and Breakeven Price for Energy Islands
Jun 2023
Publication
The topic of energy islands is currently a focal point in the push for the energy transition. An ambitious project in the North Sea aims to build an offshore wind-powered electrolyser for green hydrogen production. Power-to-X (PtX) is a process of converting renewable electricity into hydrogen-based energy carriers such as natural gas liquid fuels and chemicals. PtH2 represents a subset of PtX wherein hydrogen is the resultant green energy from the conversion process. Many uncertainties surround PtH2 plants affecting the economic success of the investment and making the price of hydrogen and the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) of this technology uncompetitive. Several studies have analysed PtH2 layouts to identify the hydrogen price without considering how component capacities and external inputs affect the breakeven price. Unlike previous works this paper investigates component capacity dependencies under variables such as wind and hydrogen demand shape for dedicated/non-dedicated system layouts. To this end the techno-economic analysis finds the breakeven price optimising the components to reach the lowest selling price. Results show that the hydrogen price can reach 2.2 €/kg for a non-dedicated system for certain combinations of maximum demand and electrolyser capacity. Furthermore the LCOH analysis revealed that the offshore wind electrolyser system is currently uncompetitive with hydrogen production from carbon-based technologies but is competitive with renewable technologies. The sensitivity analysis reveals the green electricity price in the non-dedicated case for which a dedicated system has a lower optimum hydrogen price. The price limit for the dedicated case is 116 €/MWh.
Hydrogen from Offshore Wind: Investor Perspective on the Profitability of a Hybrid System Including for Curtailment
Mar 2020
Publication
Accommodating renewables on the electricity grid may hinder development opportunities for offshore wind farms (OWFs) as they begin to experience significant curtailment or constraint. However there is potential to combine investment in OWFs with Power-to-Gas (PtG) converting electricity to hydrogen via electrolysis for an alternative/complementary revenue. Using historic wind speed and simulated system marginal costs data this work models the electricity generated and potential revenues of a 504 MW OWF. Three configurations are analysed; (1) all electricity is sold to the grid (2) all electricity is converted to hydrogen and sold and (3) a hybrid system where power is converted to hydrogen when curtailment occurs and/or when the system marginal cost is low with the effect of curtailment analysed in each scenario. These represent the status quo a potential future configuration and an innovative business model respectively. The willingness of an investor to build PtG are determined by changes to the net present value (NPV) of a project. Results suggest that configuration (1) is most profitable and that curtailment mitigation alone is not sufficient to secure investment in PtG. By acting as an artificial floor in the electricity price a hybrid configuration (3) is promising and increases NPV for all hydrogen values greater than €4.2/kgH2. Hybrid system attractiveness increases with curtailment only if the hydrogen value is significantly above the levelised cost of €3.77/kgH2. In order for an investor to choose to pursue configuration (2) the offshore wind farm would have to anticipate 8.5% curtailment and be able to receive €4.5/kgH2 or 25% curtailment and receive €4/kgH2. The capital costs and discount rates are the most sensitive parameters and ambitious combinations of technology improvements could produce a levelised cost of €3/kgH2.
Breaking the Hard-to-abate Bottleneck in China’s Path to Carbon Neutrality with Clean Hydrogen
Sep 2022
Publication
Countries such as China are facing a bottleneck in their paths to carbon neutrality: abating emissions in heavy industries and heavy-duty transport. There are few in-depth studies of the prospective role for clean hydrogen in these ‘hard-to-abate’ (HTA) sectors. Here we carry out an integrated dynamic least-cost modelling analysis. Results show that first clean hydrogen can be both a major energy carrier and feedstock that can significantly reduce carbon emissions of heavy industry. It can also fuel up to 50% of China’s heavy-duty truck and bus fleets by 2060 and significant shares of shipping. Second a realistic clean hydrogen scenario that reaches 65.7 Mt of production in 2060 could avoid US$1.72 trillion of new investment compared with a no-hydrogen scenario. This study provides evidence of the value of clean hydrogen in HTA sectors for China and countries facing similar challenges in reducing emissions to achieve net-zero goals.
Green Ammonia as a Spatial Energy Vector: A Review
May 2021
Publication
Green hydrogen is considered a highly promising vector for deep decarbonisation of energy systems and is forecast to represent 20% of global energy use by 2050. In order to secure access to this resource Japan Germany and South Korea have announced plans to import hydrogen; other major energy consumers are sure to follow. Ammonia a promising hydrogen derivative may enable this energy transport by densifying hydrogen at relatively low cost using well-understood technologies. This review seeks to describe a global green ammonia import/export market: it identifies benefits and limitations of ammonia relative to other hydrogen carriers the costs of ammonia production and transport and the constraints on both supply and demand. We find that green ammonia as an energy vector is likely to be critical to future energy systems but that gaps remain in the literature. In particular rigorous analysis of production and transport costs are rarely paired preventing realistic assessments of the delivered cost of energy or the selection of optimum import/export partners to minimise the delivered cost of ammonia. Filling these gaps in the literature is a prerequisite to the development of robust hydrogen and ammonia strategies and to enable the formation of global import and export markets of green fuel
OIES Podcast - The EU Hydrogen and Gas Decarbonisation Package
Mar 2023
Publication
David Ledesma discusses with Alex Barnes the European Commission’s decision to make hydrogen a key part of its decarbonisation strategy. The 2022 REPowerEU Strategy set a target of 20MT consumption of renewable hydrogen by 2030. The Commission is keen to promote a single European market in hydrogen similar to the current one for natural gas. To this end it has published proposals on the regulation of future European hydrogen infrastructure (pipelines storage facilities and import terminals). The EU Council (representing Member States) and the EU Parliament are finalising their amendments to the Commission proposals prior to ‘trilogue’ negotiations and final agreement later this year. The OIES’s paper ‘The EU Hydrogen and Gas Decarbonisation Package: help or hindrance for the development of a European hydrogen market?’ published in March 2023 examines the EU Commission proposals and their suitability for a developing hydrogen market.
The podcast can be found on their website.
The podcast can be found on their website.
Day-ahead Economic Optimization Scheduling Model for Electricity–hydrogen Collaboration Market
Aug 2022
Publication
This paper presents a day-ahead economic optimization scheduling model for Regional Electricity–Hydrogen Integrated Energy System (REHIES) with high penetration of renewable energies. The electricity–hydrogen coupling devices are modelled with energy storage units and Insensitive Electrical Load (ISEL). The proposed objective function is able to capture the maximum benefits for REHIES in terms of economic benefits and can be summarized as a Quadratic Programming (QP) problem. The simulation verification is performed by MATLAB/CPLEX solver. The simulation results show that the proposed optimization model adapts the market requirement by contributing flexible collaboration between electricity and hydrogen. Also the translational properties of ISEL can implement higher economic profits and more effective utilization of renewable energy.
Research & Innovation to Support Net-zero Industrial Technologies
Mar 2023
Publication
The Green Deal Industrial Plan aims to boost the competitiveness of Europe’s net-zero industry and to accelerate the transition to climate neutrality. The Plan is based on four pillars: (1) a predictable and simplified regulatory environment; (2) faster access to funding; (3) developing skills for net-zero industry; and (4) open trade for resilient supply chains.
China's Hydrogen Development: A Tale of Three Cities
Mar 2023
Publication
China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of hydrogen. The country has adopted a domestic strategy that targets significant growth in hydrogen consumption and production. Given the importance of hydrogen in the low-carbon energy transition it is critical to understand China’s hydrogen policies and their implementation as well as the extent to which these contribute to the country’s low-carbon goals.<br/>Existing research has focused on understanding policies and regulations in China and their implications for the country’s hydrogen prospects. This study aims to improve our understanding of central-government initiatives and look at how China’s hydrogen policies are implemented at the local level. The paper examines the three cities of Zhangjiakou (in China’s renewable-rich Hebei province) Datong (in the country’s coal-heartland of Shanxi province) and Chengdu which is rich in hydropower and natural gas. To be sure the three cities analysed in this paper do not cover all regional plans and initiatives but they offer a useful window into local hydrogen policy implementation. They also illustrate the major challenges facing green hydrogen as it moves beyond the narrow highly subsidized field of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). Indeed costs as well as water land availability and technology continue to be constraints.<br/>The hydrogen policies and road maps reviewed in this paper offer numerous targets—often setting quantitative goals for FCVs hydrogen refuelling stations hydrogen supply chain revenue and new hydrogen technology companies—aligning with the view that hydrogen development is currently more of an industrial policy than a decarbonisation strategy. Indeed hydrogen’s potential to decarbonise sectors such as manufacturing and chemicals is of secondary importance if mentioned at all. But as the cities analysed here view hydrogen as part of their industrial programmes economic development and climate strategies support is likely to remain significant even as the specific incentive schemes will likely evolve.<br/>Given this local hydrogen development model rising demand for hydrogen in China could ultimately increase rather than decrease CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels in the short run. At the same time even though the central government’s hydrogen targets (as laid out in its 2022 policy documents) seem relatively conservative Chinese cities’ appetite for new sources of growth and the ability to fund various business models are worth watching.
Can Green Hydrogen Production Be Economically Viable under Current Market Conditions
Dec 2020
Publication
This paper discusses the potential of green hydrogen production in a case study of a Slovenian hydro power plant. To assess the feasibility and eligibility of hydrogen production at the power plant we present an overview of current hydrogen prices and the costs of the power-to-gas system for green hydrogen production. After defining the production cost for hydrogen at the case study hydro power plant we elaborate on the profitability of hydrogen production over electricity. As hydrogen can be used as a sustainable energy vector in industry heating mobility and the electro energetic sectors we discuss the current competitiveness of hydrogen in the heating and transport sectors. Considering the current prices of different fuels it is shown that hydrogen can be competitive in the transport sector if it is unencumbered by various environmental taxes. The second part of the paper deals with hydrogen production in the context of secondary control ancillary service provided by a case study power plant. Namely hydrogen can be produced during the time period when there is no demand for extra electric power within a secondary control ancillary service and thus the economics of power plant operation can be improved.
Economically Viable Large-scale Hydrogen Liquefaction
Mar 2016
Publication
The liquid hydrogen demand particularly driven by clean energy applications will rise in the near future. As industrial large scale liquefiers will play a major role within the hydrogen supply chain production capacity will have to increase by a multiple of today’s typical sizes. The main goal is to reduce the total cost of ownership for these plants by increasing energy efficiency with innovative and simple process designs optimized in capital expenditure. New concepts must ensure a manageable plant complexity and flexible operability. In the phase of process development and selection a dimensioning of key equipment for large scale liquefiers such as turbines and compressors as well as heat exchangers must be performed iteratively to ensure technological feasibility and maturity. Further critical aspects related to hydrogen liquefaction e.g. fluid properties ortho-para hydrogen conversion and coldbox configuration must be analysed in detail. This paper provides an overview on the approach challenges and preliminary results in the development of efficient as well as economically viable concepts for large-scale hydrogen liquefaction.
Future Swiss Energy Economy: The Challenge of Storing Renewable Energy
Feb 2022
Publication
Fossil fuels and materials on Earth are a finite resource and the disposal of waste into the air on land and into water has an impact on our environment on a global level. Using Switzerland as an example the energy demand and the technical challenges and the economic feasibility of a transition to an energy economy based entirely on renewable energy were analyzed. Three approaches for the complete substitution of fossil fuels with renewable energy from photovoltaics called energy systems (ES) were considered i.e. a purely electric system with battery storage (ELC) hydrogen (HYS) and synthetic hydrocarbons (HCR). ELC is the most energy efficient solution; however it requires seasonal electricity storage to meet year-round energy needs. Meeting this need through batteries has a significant capital cost and is not feasible at current rates of battery production and expanding pumped hydropower to the extent necessary will have a big impact on the environment. The HYS allows underground hydrogen storage to balance seasonal demand but requires building of a hydrogen infrastructure and applications working with hydrogen. Finally the HCR requires the largest photovoltaic (PV) field but the infrastructure and the applications already exist. The model for Switzerland can be applied to other countries adapting the solar irradiation the energy demand and the storage options.
Which Is Preferred between Electric or Hydrogen Cars for Carbon Neutrality in the Commercial Vehicle Transportation Sector of South Korea? Implications from a Public Opinion Survey
Feb 2024
Publication
South Korea has drawn up plans to reduce greenhouse gases by 29.7 million tons by supplying 4.5 million electric and hydrogen cars by 2030 to implement the “2050 carbon neutrality” goal. This article gathers data on public preferences for electric cars (ECs) over hydrogen cars (HCs) in the commercial vehicle transportation sector through a survey of 1000 people. Moreover the strength of the preference was evaluated on a five-point scale. Of all respondents 60.0 percent preferred ECs and 21.0 percent HCs the former being 2.86 times greater than the latter. On the other hand the strength of the preference for HCs was 1.42 times greater than that for ECs. Factors influencing the preference for ECs over HCs were also explored through adopting the ordered probit model which is useful in examining ordinal preference rather than cardinal preference. The analyzed factors which are related to respondents’ characteristics experiences and perceptions can be usefully employed for developing strategies of promoting carbon neutrality in the commercial vehicle transportation sector and preparing policies to improve public acceptance thereof.
Assessment of a Fully Renewable System for the Total Decarbonization of the Economy with Full Demand Coverage on Islands Connected to a Central Grid: The Balearic Case in 2040
Jul 2023
Publication
The transition to clean electricity generation is a crucial focus for achieving the current objectives of economy decarbonization. The Balearic Archipelago faces significant environmental economic and social challenges in shifting from a predominantly fossil fuel-based economy to one based on renewable sources. This study proposes implementing a renewable energy mix and decarbonizing the economy of the Balearic Islands by 2040. The proposed system involves an entirely renewable generation system with interconnections between the four Balearic islands and the Spanish mainland grid via a 650 MW submarine cable. This flexible electrical exchange can cover approximately 35% of the peak demand of 1900 MW. The scenario comprises a 6 GWp solar photovoltaic system a wind system of under 1.2 GWp and a 600 MW biomass system as generation sub-systems. A vanadium redox flow battery sub-system with a storage capacity of approximately 21 GWh and 2.5 GWp power is available to ensure system manageability. This system’s levelized electricity cost (LCOE) is around 13.75 cEUR/kWh. The design also incorporates hydrogen as an alternative for difficult-to-electrify uses achieving effective decarbonization of all final energy uses. A production of slightly over 5 × 104 tH2 per year is required with 1.7 GW of electrolyzer power using excess electricity and water resources. The system enables a significant level of economy decarbonization although it requires substantial investments in both generation sources and storage.
Merging the Green-H2 Production with Carbon Recycling for Stepping Towards the Carbon Cyclic Economy
Jan 2024
Publication
Hydrogen Economy and Cyclic Economy are advocated together with the use of perennial (solar wind hydro geo-power SWHG) and renewable (biomass) energy sources for defossilizing anthropic activities and mitigating climate change. Each option has intrinsic limits that prevent a stand-alone success in reaching the target. Humans have recycled goods (metals water paper and now plastics) to a different extent since very long time. Recycling carbon (which is already performed at the industrial level in the form of CO2 utilization and with recycling paper and plastics) is a key point for the future. The conversion of CO2 into chemicals and materials is carried out since the late 1800s (Solvay process) and is today performed at scale of 230 Mt/y. It is time to implement on a scale of several Gt/y the conversion of CO2 into energy products possibly mimicking Nature which does not use hydrogen. In the short term a few conditions must be met to make operative on a large scale the production of fuels from recycled-C namely the availability of low-cost: i. abundant pure concentrated streams of CO2 ii. non-fossil primary energy sources and iii. non-fossil-hydrogen. The large-scale production of hydrogen by Methane Steam Reforming with CO2 capture (Blue-H2) seems to be a realistic and sustainable solution. Green-H2 could in principle be produced on a large scale through the electrolysis of water powered by perennial primary sources but hurdles such as the availability of materials for the construction of long-living robust electrochemical cells (membranes electrodes) must be abated for a substantial scale-up with respect to existing capacity. The actual political situation makes difficult to rely on external supplies. Supposed that cheap hydrogen will be available its direct use in energy production can be confronted with the indirect use that implies the hydrogenation of CO2 into fuels (E-fuels) an almost ready technology. The two strategies have both pros and cons and can be integrated. E-Fuels can also represent an option for storing the energy of intermittent sources. In the medium-long term the direct co-processing of CO2 and water via co-electrolysis may avoid the production/transport/ use of hydrogen. In the long term coprocessing of CO2 and H2O to fuels via photochemical or photoelectrochemical processes can become a strategic technology.
Monitored Data and Social Perceptions Analysis of Battery Electric and Hydrogen Fuelled Buses in Urban and Suburban Areas
Jul 2023
Publication
Electrification of the transportation sector is one of the main drivers in the decarbonization of energy and mobility systems and it is a way to ensure security of energy supply. Public bus fleets can assist in achieving fast reduction of CO2 emissions. This article provides an analysis of a unique real-world dataset to support decision makers in the decarbonization of public fleets and interlink it with the social acceptance of drivers. Data was collected from 21 fuel cell and electric buses. The tank-to-wheel efficiency results of fuel cell electric buses (FCEB) are much lower than that of battery electric buses (BEB) and there is a higher variation in consumption for BEBs compared to FCEBs. Both technologies permit a strong reduction in CO2 emissions compared to conventional buses. There is a high level of acceptance of drivers which are likely to support the transition towards zero-emission buses introduced by the management.
Towards Suitable Practices for the Integration of Social Life Cycle Assessment into the Ecodesign Framework of Hydrogen-related Products
Feb 2024
Publication
The hydrogen sector is envisaged as one of the key enablers of the energy transition that the European Union is facing to accomplish its decarbonization targets. However regarding the technologies that enable the deployment of a hydrogen economy a growing concern exists about potential burden-shifting across sustainability dimensions. In this sense social life cycle assessment arises as a promising methodology to evaluate the social implications of hydrogen technologies along their supply chains. In the context of the European projects eGHOST and SH2E this study seeks to advance on key methodological aspects of social life cycle assessment when it comes to guiding the ecodesign of two relevant hydrogen-related products: a 5 kW solid oxide electrolysis cell stack for hydrogen production and a 48 kW proton-exchange membrane fuel cell stack for mobility applications. Based on the social life cycle assessment results for both case studies under alternative approaches the definition of a product-specific supply chain making use of appropriate cut-off criteria was found to be the preferable choice when addressing system boundaries definition. Moreover performing calculations according to the activity variable approach was found to provide valuable results in terms of social hotspots identification to support subsequent decision-making processes on ecodesign while the direct calculation approach is foreseen as a complement to ease the interpretation of social scores. It is concluded that advancements in the formalization of such suitable practices could foster the integration of social metrics into the sustainable-by-design framework of hydrogen-related products.
How "Clean" is the Hydrogen Economy? Tracing the Connections Between Hydrogen and Fossil Fuels
Feb 2024
Publication
Hydrogen is experiencing a resurgence in energy transition debates. Before representing a solution however the existing hydrogen economy is still a climate change headache: over 99 % of production depends on fossil fuels oil refining accounts for 42 % of demand and its transportation is intertwined with fossil infrastructure like natural gas pipelines. This article investigates the path-dependent dynamics shaping the hydrogen economy and its interconnections with the oil and gas industry. It draws on the global production networks (GPN) approach and political economy research to provide a comprehensive review of current and prospective enduses of hydrogen modes of transport networks of industrial actors and state strategies along the major production facilities and holders of intellectual property rights. The results presented in this article suggest that the superimposition of private agendas may jeopardise the viability of future energy systems and requires counterbalancing forces to override the negative consequences of path-dependent energy transitions.
Shorter Message, Stronger Framing Increases Societal Acceptance for Hydrogen
Feb 2024
Publication
With the question of ‘can short messages be effective in increasing public support for a complex new technology (hydrogen)?‘ this study uses a representative national survey in Australia to analyze the differences and variations in subjective support for hydrogen in response to four differently framed short messages. The findings of this study show that short messages can increase social acceptance but the effects depend on how strongly the message is framed in terms of its alignment with either an economic or environmental values framework. Furthermore the effects depend on the social and cultural context of the receiver of the message.
Stakeholder Perspectives on the Scale-up of Green Hydrogen and Electrolyzers
Nov 2023
Publication
Green hydrogen is a promising alternative to fossil fuels. However current production capacities for electrolyzers and green hydrogen are not in line with national political goals and projected demand. Considering these issues we conducted semi-structured interviews to determine the narratives of different stakeholders during this transformation as well as challenges and opportunities for the green hydrogen value chain. We interviewed eight experts with different roles along the green hydrogen value chain ranging from producers and consumers of green hydrogen to electrolyzer manufacturers and consultants as well as experts from the political sphere. Most experts see the government as necessary for scale-up by setting national capacity targets policy support and providing subsidies. However the experts also accuse the governments of delaying development through overregulation and long implementation times for regulations. The main challenges that were identified are the current lack of renewable electricity and demand for green hydrogen. Demand for green hydrogen is influenced by supply costs which partly depend on prices for electrolyzers. However one key takeaway of the interviews is the skeptical assessments by the experts on the currently discussed estimates for price reduction potential of electrolyzers. While demand supply and prices are all factors that influence each other they result in feedback loops in investment decisions for the energy and manufacturing industries. A second key takeaway is that according to the experts current investment decisions in new production capacities are not solely dependent on short-term financial gains but also based on expected first mover advantages. These include experience and market share which are seen as factors for opportunities for future financial gains. Summarized the results present several challenges and opportunities for green hydrogen and electrolyzers and how to address them effectively. These insights contribute to a deeper understanding of the dynamics of the emerging green hydrogen value chain.
The Effects of Hydrogen Research and Innovation on International Hydrogen Trade
Feb 2024
Publication
Climate change and the pressure to decarbonize as well as energy security concerns have drawn the attention of policymakers and the industry to hydrogen energy. To advance the hydrogen economy at a global scale research and innovation progress is of significant importance among others. However previous studies have provided only limited quantitative evidence of the effects of research and innovation on the formation of a global hydrogen market. Instead they postulate rather than empirically support this relationship. Therefore this study analyzes the effects of research and innovation measured by scientific publications patents and standards on bilateral hydrogen trade flows for 32 countries between 1995 and 2019 in a gravity model of trade using regression analyses and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation. The main results of the PPML estimation show that research and innovation progress is indeed associated with increased trade especially with patenting and (international) standardization enhancing hydrogen export volumes. As policy implications we derive that increased public R&D funding can help increase the competitiveness of hydrogen energy and boost market growth along with infrastructure support and harmonized standards and regulations.
The Cost Dynamics of Hydrogen Supply in Future Energy systems - A Techno-economic Study
Nov 2022
Publication
This work aims to investigate the time-resolved cost of electrolytic hydrogen in a future climate-neutral electricity system with high shares of variable renewable electricity generation in which hydrogen is used in the industry and transport sectors as well as for time-shifting electricity generation. The work applies a techno-economic optimization model which incorporates both exogenous (industry and transport) and endogenous (time-shifting of electricity generation) hydrogen demands to elucidate the parameters that affect the cost of hydrogen. The results highlight that several parameters influence the cost of hydrogen. The strongest influential parameter is the cost of electricity. Also important are cost-optimal dimensioning of the electrolyzer and hydrogen storage capacities as these capacities during certain periods limit hydrogen production thereby setting the marginal cost of hydrogen. Another decisive factor is the nature of the hydrogen demand whereby flexibility in the hydrogen demand can reduce the cost of supplying hydrogen given that the demand can be shifted in time. In addition the modeling shows that time-shifting electricity generation via hydrogen production with subsequent reconversion back to electricity plays an important in the climate-neutral electricity system investigated decreasing the average electricity cost by 2%–16%. Furthermore as expected the results show that the cost of hydrogen from an off-grid island-mode-operated industry is more expensive than the cost of hydrogen from all scenarios with a fully interconnected electricity system.
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