Policy & Socio-Economics
UK Hydrogen Strategy
Aug 2021
Publication
The UK’s first-ever Hydrogen Strategy drives forward the commitments laid out in the Prime Minister’s ambitious 10 Point Plan for a green industrial revolution by setting the foundation for how the UK government will work with industry to meet its ambition for 5GW of low carbon hydrogen production capacity by 2030 – the equivalent of replacing natural gas in powering around 3 million UK homes each year as well as powering transport and businesses particularly heavy industry.<br/>A booming UK-wide hydrogen economy could be worth £900 million and create over 9000 high-quality jobs by 2030 potentially rising to 100000 jobs and worth up to £13 billion by 2050. By 2030 hydrogen could play an important role in decarbonising polluting energy-intensive industries like chemicals oil refineries power and heavy transport like shipping HGV lorries and trains by helping these sectors move away from fossil fuels. Low-carbon hydrogen provides opportunities for UK companies and workers across our industrial heartlands.<br/>With government analysis suggesting that 20-35% of the UK’s energy consumption by 2050 could be hydrogen-based this new energy source could be critical to meet our targets of net zero emissions by 2050 and cutting emissions by 78% by 2035 – a view shared by the UK’s independent Climate Change Committee. In the UK a low-carbon hydrogen economy could deliver emissions savings equivalent to the carbon captured by 700 million trees by 2032 and is a key pillar of capitalising on cleaner energy sources as the UK moves away from fossil fuels.
Hydrogen Production, Distribution, Storage and Power Conversion in a Hydrogen Economy - A Technology Review
Aug 2021
Publication
To meet ambitious targets for greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the 2035-2050 timeframe hydrogen has been identified as a clean “green” fuel of interest. In comparison to fossil fuel use the burning of hydrogen results in zero CO2 emissions and it can be obtained from renewable energy sources. In addition to zero CO2 emissions hydrogen has several other attractive properties such as higher gravimetric energy content and wider flammability limits than most fossil fuels. However there are practical limitations to its widespread use at present which include low volumetric energy density in the gaseous state and high well-to-wheel costs when compared to fossil fuel production and distribution. In this paper a review is undertaken to identify the current state of development of key areas of the hydrogen network such as production distribution storage and power conversion technology. At present high technology costs still are a barrier to widespread hydrogen adoption but it is envisioned that as scale of production increases then costs are likely to fall. Technical barriers to a hydrogen economy adoption are not as significant as one might think as key technologies in the hydrogen network are already mature with working prototypes already developed for technologies such as liquid hydrogen composite cryotanks and proton exchange membrane fuel cells. It is envisioned that with continuous investment to achieve requisite scale that a hydrogen economy could be realised sooner rather than later with novel concepts such as turboelectric distributed propulsion enabled by a shift to hydrogen-powered network.
Our Green Print: Future Heat for Everyone
Jul 2021
Publication
Green Print - Future Heat for Everyone draws together technical consumer and economic considerations to create a pioneering plan to transition 22 million UK homes to low carbon heat by 2050.<br/>Our Green Print underlines the scale of the challenge ahead acknowledging that a mosaic of low carbon heating solutions will be required to meet the needs of individual communities and setting out 12 key steps that can be taken now in order to get us there<br/>The Climate Change Committee (CCC) estimates an investment spend of £250bn to upgrade insulation and heating in homes as well as provide the infrastructure to deliver the energy.<br/>This is a task of unprecedented scale the equivalent of retro-fitting 67000 homes every month from now until 2050. In this Report Cadent takes the industry lead in addressing the challenge.
Fugitive Hydrogen Emissions in a Future Hydrogen Economy
Apr 2022
Publication
There is an increasing body of evidence that leakage of hydrogen to the atmosphere will have an indirect warming effect on the climate and so should be minimised.<br/>This study investigates and quantifies the current understanding of potential hydrogen emissions in the different sectors across a future hydrogen value-chain. It shows that there are some key areas in production distribution and end-use where there could potentially be significant leaks of hydrogen to the atmosphere. In some of these areas there are clear mitigation options while with others the options are less clear due to uncertainty in either data or future technology development.<br/>The report recommends further research and development to reduce the main leak pathways and additional evidence gathering in key areas where there is currently inadequate data to make accurate predictions.<br/>The study was commissioned by BEIS and conducted by the Frazer-Nash consultancy.
Cost and Capacity Requirements of Electrification or Renewable Gas Transition Options that Decarbonize Building Heating in Metro Vancouver, British Columbia
Jun 2022
Publication
Northern countries face a unique challenge in decarbonizing heating demands. This study compares two pathways to reduce carbon emissions from building heating by (1) replacing natural gas heaters with electric heat pumps or (2) replacing natural gas with renewable gas. Optimal annual system cost and capacity requirements for Metro Vancouver Canada are assessed for each pathway under nine scenarios. Results show that either pathway can be lower cost but the range of costs is more narrow for the renewable gas pathway. System cost is sensitive to heat demand with colder temperatures favouring the renewable gas pathway and milder temperatures favouring the electrification pathway. These results highlight the need for a better understanding of heating profiles and associated energy system requirements.
Hydrogen Technology on the Polish Electromobility Market. Legal, Economic, and Social Aspects
Apr 2021
Publication
The aim of this study was to evaluate the motorization market of electric vehicles powered by hydrogen cells in Poland. European conditions of such technology were indicated as well as original proposals on amendments to the law to increase the development pace of electromobility based on hydrogen cells. There were also presented economic aspects of this economic phenomenon. Moreover survey research was conducted to examine the preferences of hydrogen and electric vehicle users in 5 primary Polish cities. In this way the level of social acceptance for the technological revolution based on hydrogen cells and taking place in the motorization sector was determined.
The Value of Flexible Fuel Mixing in Hydrogen-fueled Gas Turbines - A Techno-economic Study
Jul 2022
Publication
In electricity systems mainly supplied with variable renewable electricity (VRE) the variable generation must be balanced. Hydrogen as an energy carrier combined with storage has the ability to shift electricity generation in time and thereby support the electricity system. The aim of this work is to analyze the competitiveness of hydrogen-fueled gas turbines including both open and combined cycles with flexible fuel mixing of hydrogen and biomethane in zero-carbon emissions electricity systems. The work applies a techno-economic optimization model to future European electricity systems with high shares of VRE.<br/>The results show that the most competitive gas turbine option is a combined cycle configuration that is capable of handling up to 100% hydrogen fed with various mixtures of hydrogen and biomethane. The results also indicate that the endogenously calculated hydrogen cost rarely exceeds 5 €/kgH2 when used in gas turbines and that a hydrogen cost of 3–4 €/kgH2 is for most of the scenarios investigated competitive. Furthermore the results show that hydrogen gas turbines are more competitive in wind-based energy systems as compared to solar-based systems in that the fluctuations of the electricity generation in the former are fewer more irregular and of longer duration. Thus it is the characteristics of an energy system and not necessarily the cost of hydrogen that determine the competitiveness of hydrogen gas turbines.
A Global Review of the Hydrogen Energy Eco-System
Feb 2023
Publication
Climate change primarily caused by the greenhouse gases emitted as a result of the consumption of carbon-based fossil fuels is considered one of the biggest challenges that humanity has ever faced. Moreover the Ukrainian crisis in 2022 has complicated the global energy and food status quo more than ever. The permanency of this multifaceted fragility implies the need for increased efforts to have energy independence and requires long-term solutions without fossil fuels through the use of clean zero-carbon renewables energies. Hydrogen technologies have a strong potential to emerge as an energy eco-system in its production-storage-distribution-utilization stages with its synergistic integration with solar-wind-hydraulic-nuclear and other zero-carbon clean renewable energy resources and with the existing energy infrastructure. In this paper we provide a global review of hydrogen energy need related policies practices and state of the art for hydrogen production transportation storage and utilization.
A Geospatial Method for Estimating the Levelised Cost of Hydrogen Production from Offshore Wind
Jan 2023
Publication
This paper describes the development of a general-purpose geospatial model for assessing the economic viability of hydrogen production from offshore wind power. A key feature of the model is that it uses the offshore project's location characteristics (distance to port water depth distance to gas grid injection point). Learning rates are used to predict the cost of the wind farm's components and electrolyser stack replacement. The notional wind farm used in the paper has a capacity of 510 MW. The model is implemented in a geographic information system which is used to create maps of levelised cost of hydrogen from offshore wind in Irish waters. LCOH values in 2030 spatially vary by over 50% depending on location. The geographically distributed LCOH results are summarised in a multivariate production function which is a simple and rapid tool for generating preliminary LCOH estimates based on simple site input variables.
Moving Toward the Low-carbon Hydrogen Economy: Experiences and Key Learnings from National Case Studies
Sep 2022
Publication
The urgency to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050 as first presented by the IPCC special report on 1.5°C Global Warming has spurred renewed interest in hydrogen to complement electrification for widespread decarbonization of the economy. We present reflections on estimates of future hydrogen demand optimization of infrastructure for hydrogen production transport and storage development of viable business cases and environmental impact evaluations using life cycle assessments. We highlight challenges and opportunities that are common across studies of the business cases for hydrogen in Germany the UK the Netherlands Switzerland and Norway. The use of hydrogen in the industrial sector is an important driver and could incentivise large-scale hydrogen value chains. In the long-term hydrogen becomes important also for the transport sector. Hydrogen production from natural gas with capture and permanent storage of the produced CO2 (CCS) enables large-scale hydrogen production in the intermediate future and is complementary to hydrogen from renewable power. Furthermore timely establishment of hydrogen and CO2 infrastructures serves as an anchor to support the deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies such as direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) and biohydrogen production with CCS. Significant public support is needed to ensure coordinated planning governance and the establishment of supportive regulatory frameworks which foster the growth of hydrogen markets.
Transition to Low-Carbon Hydrogen Energy System in the UAE: Sector Efficiency and Hydrogen Energy Production Efficiency Analysis
Sep 2022
Publication
To provide an effective energy transition hydrogen is required to decarbonize the hard-toabate industries. As a case study this paper provides a holistic view of the hydrogen energy transition in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). By utilizing the directional distance function undesirable data envelopment analysis model the energy economic and environmental efficiency of UAE sectors are estimated from 2001 to 2020 to prioritize hydrogen sector coupling. Green hydrogen production efficiency is analyzed from 2020 to 2050. The UAE should prioritize the industry and transportation sectors with average efficiency scores of 0.7 and 0.74. The decomposition of efficiency into pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency suggests policies and strategies should target upscaling the UAE’s low-carbon hydrogen production capacity to expedite short-term and overall production efficiency. The findings of this study can guide strategies and policies for the UAE’s low-carbon hydrogen transition. A framework is developed based on the findings of the study.
The Hydrogen Economy - Where is the Water?
Jul 2022
Publication
"Green hydrogen” i.e. hydrogen produced by splitting water with a carbon “free” source of electricity via electrolysis is set to become the energy vector enabling a deep decarbonisation of society and a virtuous water based energy cycle. If to date water electrolysis is considered to be a scalable technology the source of water to enable a “green hydrogen” economy at scale is questionable. Countries with the highest renewable energy potential like Australia are also among the driest places on earth. Globally 380000 GL/year of wastewater is available and this is much more than the 34500 GL/year of water required to produce the projected 2.3 Gt of hydrogen of a mature hydrogen economy. Hence the need to assess both technically and economically whether some wastewater treatment effluent are a better source for green hydrogen. Analysis of Sydney Water’s wastewater treatment plants alone shows that these plants have 37.6 ML/day of unused tertiary effluents which if electrolysed would generate 420000 t H2/day or 0.88 Mt H2/year and cover ∼100% of Australia’s estimated production by 2030. Furthermore the production of oxygen as a by-product of the electrolysis process could lead to significant benefits to the water industry not only in reducing the cost of the hydrogen produced for $3/kg (assuming a price of oxygen of $3–4 per kg) but also in improving the environmental footprint of wastewater treatment plants by enabling the onsite re-use of oxygen for the treatment of the wastewater. Compared to desalinated water that requires large investments or stormwater that is unpredictable it is apparent that the water utilities have a critical role to play in managing water assets that are “climate independent” as the next “golden oil” opportunity and in enabling a “responsible” hydrogen industry that sensibly manages its water demands and does not compete with existing water potable water demand.
The New Model of Energy Cluster Management and Functioning
Sep 2022
Publication
This article was aimed to answer the question of whether local energy communities have a sufficient energy surplus for storage purposes including hydrogen production. The article presents an innovative approach to current research and a discussion of the concepts of the collective prosumer and virtual prosumer that have been implemented in the legal order and further amended in the law. From this perspective it was of utmost importance to analyze the model of functioning of an energy cluster consisting of energy consumers energy producers and hydrogen storage whose goal is to maximize the obtained benefits assuming the co-operative nature of the relationship. The announced and clear perspective of the planned benefits will provide the cluster members a measurable basis for participation in such an energy community. However the catalogue of benefits will be conditioned by the fulfillment of several requirements related to both the scale of covering energy demand from own sources and the need to store surplus energy. As part of the article the results of analyses together with a functional model based on real data of the local energy community are presented.
Progress in Reducing Emissions in Scotland: 2021 Report to Parliament
Dec 2021
Publication
This is the tenth annual Progress Report to the Scottish Parliament as required by the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009. This year’s report shows that in 2019 Scotland’s greenhouse emissions fell by 2% compared to 2018 and are now 44% below 1990 levels. The reductions were largely driven by the manufacturing and construction and fuel supply sectors with electricity generation remaining the biggest driver of emissions cuts over the past decade (2009-2019). The potential for further emissions savings from electricity generation has however largely run out.
The focus must now shift to ensuring that rapid emissions reductions are delivered with no further delay to allow Scotland to meet its legislated 2030 target.
This report and other reports by the Climate Change Committee can be downloaded on their website.
The focus must now shift to ensuring that rapid emissions reductions are delivered with no further delay to allow Scotland to meet its legislated 2030 target.
This report and other reports by the Climate Change Committee can be downloaded on their website.
Building the Green Hydrogen Market - Current State and Outlook on Green Hydrogen Demand and Electrolyzer Manufacturing
Jul 2022
Publication
Over the past two years requirements to meet climate targets have been intensified. In addition to the tightening of the climate targets and the demand for net-zero achievement by as early as 2045 there have been discussions on implementing and realizing these goals. Hydrogen has emerged as a promising climate-neutral energy carrier. Thus over the last 1.5 years more than 25 countries have published hydrogen roadmaps. Furthermore various studies by different authorities have been released to support the development of a hydrogen economy. This paper examines published studies and hydrogen country roadmaps as part of a meta-analysis. Furthermore a market analysis of electrolyzer manufacturers is conducted. The prospected demand for green hydrogen from various studies is compared to electrolyzer manufacturing capacities and selected green hydrogen projects to identify potential market ramp-up scenarios and to evaluate if green hydrogen demand forecasts can be filled.
The Role of Renewable Energies, Storage and Sector-Coupling Technologies in the German Energy Sector under Different CO2 Emission Restrictions
Aug 2022
Publication
This study aimed to simulate the sector-coupled energy system of Germany in 2030 with the restriction on CO2 emission levels and to observe how the system evolves with decreasing emissions. Moreover the study presented an analysis of the interconnection between electricity heat and hydrogen and how technologies providing flexibility will react when restricting CO2 emissions levels. This investigation has not yet been carried out with the technologies under consideration in this study. It shows how the energy system behaves under different set boundaries of CO2 emissions and how the costs and technologies change with different emission levels. The study results show that the installed capacities of renewable technologies constantly increase with higher limitations on emissions. However their usage rates decreases with low CO2 emission levels in response to higher curtailed energy. The sector-coupled technologies behave differently in this regard. Heat pumps show similar behaviour while the electrolysers usage rate increases with more renewable energy penetration. The system flexibility is not primarily driven by the hydrogen sector but in low CO2 emission level scenarios the flexibility shifts towards the heating sector and electrical batteries.
Cross-regional Electricity and Hydrogen Deployment Research Based on Coordinated Optimization: Towards Carbon Neutrality in China
Sep 2022
Publication
In order to achieve carbon neutrality in a few decades the clean energy proportion in power mix of China will significantly rise to over 90%. A consensus has been reached recently that it will be of great significance to promote hydrogen energy that is produced by variable renewable energy power generation as a mainstay energy form in view of its potential value on achieving carbon neutrality. This is because hydrogen energy is capable of complementing the power system and realizing further electrification especially in the section that cannot be easily replaced by electric energy. Power system related planning model is commonly used for mid-term and long-term planning implemented through power installation and interconnection capacity expansion optimization. In consideration of the high importance of hydrogen and its close relationship with electricity an inclusive perspective which contains both kinds of the foresaid energy is required to deal with planning problems. In this study a joint model is established by coupling hydrogen energy model in the chronological operation power planning model to realize coordinated optimization on energy production transportation and storage. By taking the carbon neutrality scenario of China as an example the author applies this joint model to deploy a scheme research on power generation and hydrogen production inter-regional energy transportation capacity and hydrogen storage among various regions. Next by taking the technology progress and cost decrease prediction uncertainty into account the main technical– economic parameters are employed as variables to carry out sensitivity analysis research with a hope that the quantitative calculation and results discussion could provide suggestion and reference to energy-related companies policy-makers and institute researchers in formulating strategies on related energy development.
Economic Analysis on Hydrogen Pipeline Infrastructure Establishment Scenarios: Case Study of South Korea
Sep 2022
Publication
South Korea has a plan to realize a hydrogen economy and it is essential to establish a main hydrogen pipeline for hydrogen transport. This study develops a cost estimation model applicable to the construction of hydrogen pipelines and conducts an economic analysis to evaluate various scenarios for hydrogen pipeline construction. As a result the cost of modifying an existing natural gas to a hydrogen pipeline is the lowest however there are issues with the safety of the modified hydrogen pipes from natural gas and the necessity of the existing natural gas pipelines. In the case of a short-distance hydrogen pipeline the cost is about 1.8 times that of the existing natural gas pipeline modification but it is considered a transitional scenario before the construction of the main hydrogen pipeline nationwide. Lastly in the case of long-distance main hydrogen pipeline construction it takes about 3.7 times as much cost as natural gas pipeline modification however it has the advantage of being the ultimate hydrogen pipeline network. In this study various hydrogen pipeline establishment scenarios ware compared. These results are expected to be utilized to establish plans for building hydrogen pipelines and to evaluate their economic feasibility.
The More the Merrier? Actors and Ideas in the Evolution of Germany Hydrogen Policy Discourse
Feb 2023
Publication
Hydrogen has set high hopes for decarbonization due to its flexibility and ability to decarbonize sectors of the economy where direct electrification appears unviable. Broad hydrogen policies have therefore started to emerge. Nevertheless it is still a rather niche technology not integrated or adopted at scale and not regulated through particular policy provisions. The involved stakeholders are thus still rushing to set the agenda over the issue. All this plays out publicly and shapes the public discourse. This paper explores how the composition of stakeholders their positions and the overall discourse structure have developed and accompanied the political agenda-setting in the early public debate on hydrogen in Germany. We use discourse network analysis of media where stakeholders' claims-making is documented and their positions can be tracked over time. The public discourse on hydrogen in Germany shows the expected evolution of statements in connection with the two milestones chosen for the analyses the initiation of the Gas 2030 Dialogue and the publication of the National Hydrogen Strategy. Interestingly the discourse was comparatively feeble in the immediate aftermath of the respective milestones but intensified in a consolidation phase around half a year later. Sequencing the discourse and contextualizing its content relative to political societal and economic conditions in a diachronic way is essential because it helps to avoid misinterpreting the development of stakeholders' standpoints as conflict-driven rather than mere repositioning. Thus we observed no discourse “polarization” even though potentially polarizing issues were already present in the debate.
Green Hydrogen Production and Use in Low- and Middle-income Countries: A Least-cost Geospatial Modelling Approach Applied to Kenya
May 2023
Publication
With the rising threat of climate change green hydrogen is increasingly seen as the high-capacity energy storage and transport medium of the future. This creates an opportunity for low- and middle-income countries to leverage their high renewable energy potential to produce use and export low-cost green hydrogen creating environmental and economic development benefits. While identifying ideal locations for green hydrogen production is critical for countries when defining their green hydrogen strategies there has been a paucity of adequate geospatial planning approaches suitable to low- and middle-income countries. It is essential for these countries to identify green hydrogen production sites which match demand to expected use cases such that their strategies are economically sustainable. This paper therefore develops a novel geospatial cost modelling method to optimize the location of green hydrogen production across different use cases with a focus on suitability to low- and middle-income countries. This method is applied in Kenya to investigate the potential hydrogen supply chain for three use cases: ammonia-based fertilizer freight transport and export. We find hydrogen production costs of e3.7–9.9/kgH2 are currently achievable across Kenya depending on the production location chosen. The cheapest production locations are identified to the south and south-east of Lake Turkana. We show that ammonia produced in Kenya can be cost-competitive given the current energy crisis and that Kenya could export hydrogen to Rotterdam with costs of e7/kgH2 undercutting current market prices regardless of the carrier medium. With expected techno-economic improvements hydrogen production costs across Kenya could drop to e1.8–3.0/kgH2 by 2030.
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