Policy & Socio-Economics
Sensitive Intervention Points to Achieve Net-zero Emissions (Sixth Carbon Budget Policy Advisory Group)
Dec 2020
Publication
The group concluded that the transition to Net Zero can and will occur and will leave a positive legacy for future generations. They examined the UK as a complex adaptive system and identified recommendations for accelerating progress and reducing the risks of failure. The Group recognised an opportunity for Sensitive Intervention Points (SIPs) coinciding with these recommendations pointing to opportunities to accelerate a transition towards Net Zero by exploiting socio-economic tipping points.
These included:
These included:
- Deepening public engagement through investments to support measures to lower ‘thresholds’ to behavioural change such as energy efficiency or dietary alternatives. This can form part of a public engagement strategy for Net Zero that educates the public involves people in decision-making and provides trusted information at key decision points
- Delivering social justice via a clear long-term vision for specific regions coupled with mechanisms that reward the private sector for building industries in otherwise deprived areas starting now
- Government leading on Net Zero by requiring any company meeting with ministers and secretaries of state to have a plan to reach net zero emissions
- Leveraging global dynamics by introducing a border carbon adjustment and consider forming bilateral and multilateral preferential trading arrangements for environmental goods and services
- Penalising emissions by committing in the UK’s NDC to sequester 10% of CO2 emissions generated by fossil fuels and industry by 2030
- Increasing business ambition by identifying businesses that shape industries – celebrate and elevate them
- Accelerating technology via Pathfinder cities that can deliver comprehensive steps towards Net Zero and demonstrate the interactions required across complex systems of low-carbon electricity heat and transport
- Redirecting capital flows by introducing Net zero aligned and transparent accounting and auditing
- Harnessing legal avenues by legislating all regulators to regard the Paris Agreement Sixth Carbon Budget and 2050 Net Zero target in their duties.
Net Zero Public Dialogue
Mar 2021
Publication
This research project brought together members of the public from across the UK to participate in online workshops to explore:
- public understanding and perceptions of what reaching climate targets in the UK will mean for them individually and for society as a whole
- public attitudes and preferences towards the role that individual behaviour change should have in reaching net zero
- public perceptions of the easiest and toughest areas of change to help reach net zero
- public views on how they would prefer to engage with net zero policies and relevant initiatives that they feel could support the delivery of net zero
Are We Building Back Better? Evidence from 2020 and Pathways for Inclusive Green Recovery Spending
Mar 2021
Publication
COVID-19 has led to a global crisis threatening the lives and livelihoods of the most vulnerable by increasing poverty exacerbating inequalities and damaging long-term economic growth prospects. The report Are We Building Back Better? Evidence from 2020 and Pathways for Inclusive Green Recovery Spending provides an analysis of over 3500 fiscal policies announced by leading economies in 2020 and calls for governments to invest more sustainably and tackle inequalities as they stimulate growth in the wake of the devastation wrought by the pandemic.
National Hydrogen Roadmap for Finland
Nov 2020
Publication
Hydrogen has been used as an industrial chemical for more than 100 years. Today hydrogen is used to manufacture ammonia and hence fertilizers as well as methanol and hydrogen peroxide both vital feedstocks for a wide variety of different chemical products. Furthermore in oil refineries hydrogen is used for the processing of intermediate products as well as to increase the hydrogen contents of the final products that are used propel the vehicles. However hydrogen has recently achieved new attention for its capabilities in reducing carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Producing hydrogen via low or totally carbon-free ways and using this “good” low-carbon hydrogen to replace hydrogen with a larger carbon footprint we can reduce carbon emissions. Furthermore using renewable electricity and captured carbon we can synthesise many such chemical products that are currently produced from fossil raw materials. This “Power-to-X” (P2X) is often seen as the eventual incarnation of the hydrogen economy. In addition the progress in technology both in hydrogen fuel cells and in polymer electrolyte electrolysers alike has increased their efficiencies.<br/>Furthermore production costs of renewable electricity by wind or solar power have lowered significantly. Thus cost of “good” hydrogen has also decreased markedly and production volumes are expected to increase rapidly. For these reasons many countries have raised interests in “good” hydrogen and have created roadmaps and strategies for their involvement in hydrogen. Hydrogen plays a key role also in combating climate change and reaching Finland's national goal of carbon neutrality by 2035. In recent years many clean hydrogen and P2X production methods have developed significantly and become commercially viable.<br/>This report was produced by a team of VTT experts on hydrogen and hydrogen-related technologies. The focus is in an outlook for low-carbon H2 production H2 utilization for green chemicals and fuels as well as storage transport and end-use especially during the next 10 years in Finland in connection to renewed EU regulations. This roadmap is expected to serve as the knowledge-base for further work such as shaping the hydrogen policy for Finland and determining the role of hydrogen in the national energy and climate policy.
Energy Innovation Needs Assessment: Carbon Capture Usage & Storage
Nov 2019
Publication
The Energy Innovation Needs Assessment (EINA) aims to identify the key innovation needs across the UK’s energy system to inform the prioritisation of public sector investment in low-carbon innovation. Using an analytical methodology developed by the Department for Business Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) the EINA takes a system level approach and values innovations in a technology in terms of the system-level benefits a technology innovation provides. This whole system modelling in line with BEIS’s EINA methodology was delivered by the Energy Systems Catapult (ESC) using the Energy System Modelling Environment (ESMETM) as the primary modelling tool.
To support the overall prioritisation of innovation activity the EINA process analyses key technologies in more detail. These technologies are grouped together into sub-themes according to the primary role they fulfil in the energy system. For key technologies within a sub-theme innovations and business opportunities are identified. The main findings at the technology level are summarised in sub-theme reports. An overview report will combine the findings from each sub-theme to provide a broad system-level perspective and prioritisation.
This EINA analysis is based on a combination of desk research by a consortium of economic and engineering consultants and stakeholder engagement. The prioritisation of innovation and business opportunities presented is informed by a workshop organised for each sub-theme assembling key stakeholders from the academic community industry and government.
This report was commissioned prior to advice being received from the CCC on meeting a net zero target and reflects priorities to meet the previous 80% target in 2050. The newly legislated net zero target is not expected to change the set of innovation priorities rather it will make them all more valuable overall. Further work is required to assess detailed implications.
To support the overall prioritisation of innovation activity the EINA process analyses key technologies in more detail. These technologies are grouped together into sub-themes according to the primary role they fulfil in the energy system. For key technologies within a sub-theme innovations and business opportunities are identified. The main findings at the technology level are summarised in sub-theme reports. An overview report will combine the findings from each sub-theme to provide a broad system-level perspective and prioritisation.
This EINA analysis is based on a combination of desk research by a consortium of economic and engineering consultants and stakeholder engagement. The prioritisation of innovation and business opportunities presented is informed by a workshop organised for each sub-theme assembling key stakeholders from the academic community industry and government.
This report was commissioned prior to advice being received from the CCC on meeting a net zero target and reflects priorities to meet the previous 80% target in 2050. The newly legislated net zero target is not expected to change the set of innovation priorities rather it will make them all more valuable overall. Further work is required to assess detailed implications.
Scottish Offshore Wind to Green Hydrogen Opportunity Assessment
Dec 2020
Publication
Initial assessment of Scotland’s opportunity to produce green hydrogen from offshore wind
Summary of Key Findings
Summary of Key Findings
- Scotland has an abundant offshore wind resource that has the potential to be a vital component in our net zero transition. If used to produce green hydrogen offshore wind can help abate the emissions of historically challenging sectors such as heating transport and industry.
- The production of green hydrogen from offshore wind can help overcome Scotland’s grid constraints and unlock a massive clean power generation resource creating a clean fuel for Scottish industry and households and a highly valuable commodity to supply rapidly growing UK and European markets.
- The primary export markets for Scottish green hydrogen are expected to be in Northern Europe (Germany Netherlands & Belgium). Strong competition to supply these markets is expected to come from green hydrogen produced from solar energy in Southern Europe and North Africa.
- Falling wind and electrolyser costs will enable green hydrogen production to be cost-competitive in the key transport and heat sectors by 2032. Strategic investment in hydrogen transportation and storage is essential to unlocking the economic opportunity for Scotland.
- Xodus’ analysis supports a long-term outlook of LCoH falling towards £2/kg with an estimated reference cost of £2.3 /kg in 2032 for hydrogen delivered to shore.
- Scotland has extensive port and pipeline infrastructure that can be repurposed for hydrogen export to the rest of UK and to Europe. Pipelines from the ‘90s are optimal for this purpose as they are likely to retain acceptable mechanical integrity and have a metallurgy better suited to hydrogen service. A more detailed assessment of export options should be performed to provide a firm foundation for early commercial green hydrogen projects.
- There is considerable hydrogen supply chain overlap with elements of parallel sectors most notably the oil and gas offshore wind and subsea engineering sectors. Scotland already has a mature hydrocarbon supply chain which is engaged in supporting green hydrogen. However a steady pipeline of early projects supported by a clear financeable route to market will be needed to secure this supply chain capability through to widescale commercial deployment.
- There are gaps in the Scottish supply chain in the areas of design manufacture and maintenance of hydrogen production storage and transportation systems. Support including apprenticeships will be needed to develop indigenous skills and capabilities in these areas.
- The development of green hydrogen from offshore wind has the potential to create high value jobs a significant proportion which are likely to be in remote rural/coastal communities located close to offshore wind resources. These can serve as an avenue for workers to redeploy and develop skills learned from oil and gas in line with Just Transition principles.
Zero-In on NI-Heat Exploring Pathways Towards Heat Decarbonisation in Northern Ireland
Jul 2020
Publication
Northern Ireland has achieved its 2020 targets in the electricity sector ahead of time with 46.8% of its electricity demand supplied by renewable generators. When it comes to heat the progress is less impressive – 68% of domestic heating is provided by oil and only around 2500 customers use low carbon heat generators in their homes. In addition 22% of consumers live in fuel poverty. Fuel poverty support programmes still propose the replacement of old oil boilers with new models or with gas boilers where a connection to the grid is possible.<br/>Failure of the commercial RHI scheme and the knock-on effect of the closure of the domestic RHI scheme caused significant damage to the industry and to the reputation of low carbon heat technologies leaving NI consumers without any explicit supporting mechanisms for low carbon heat supply. Decreases in carbon emissions from the heat sector are mainly achieved through switching from oil to gas heating. Gas infrastructure is under development in NI and promises to reach 60% of customers by 2022.
Annual Science Review 2018
Mar 2018
Publication
THIS ANNUAL SCIENCE Review showcases the high quality of science evidence and analysis that underpins HSE’s risk-based regulatory regime. To be an effective regulator HSE has to balance its approaches to informing directing advising and enforcing through a variety of activities. For this we need capacity to advance knowledge; to develop and use robust evidence and analysis; to challenge thinking; and to review effectiveness.<br/>In simple terms policy provides the route map to tackling issues. HSE is particularly well placed in terms of the three components of effective policy - “politics” “evidence” and “delivery”. Unlike most regulators and arms-length bodies HSE leads on policy development which draws directly on front line delivery expertise and intelligence; and we are also unusual in having our own world class science and insight capabilities.<br/>The challenge is to ensure we bring these components together to best effect to respond to new risk management and regulatory issues with effective innovative and proportionate approaches.<br/>Many of the articles in this Review relate to new and emerging technologies and the changing world of work and it is important to understand the risks these may pose and how they can be effectively controlled or how they themselves can contribute to improved health and safety in the workplace. Good policy development can support approaches to change that are proportionate relevant persuasive and effective. For example work described in these pages is: to help understand changing workplace exposures; to provide robust evidence to those negotiating alternatives to unduly prescriptive standards; to understand how best to influence duty<br/>holder behaviors in the changing world of work; to inform possible legislative changes to allow different modes of safe gas transmission; to change administrative processes for Appointed Doctors; and to support our position as a model modern regulator by further focusing our inspection activity where it matters most.<br/>The vital interface between HSE science and policy understand how best to influence duty holder behaviors in the changing world of work; to inform possible legislative changes to allow different modes of safe gas transmission; to change administrative processes for Appointed Doctors; and to support our position as a model modern regulator by further focusing our inspection activity where it matters most.<br/>We work well together and it is important we maintain this engagement as a conscious collaboration.
Oxford Energy Podcast – How a Traded Hydrogen Market Might Develop – Lessons from the Natural Gas Industry
Jun 2021
Publication
The appetite for a ‘hydrogen market’ has been growing in the past year or two and is often called a ‘market’ by governments regulators and other energy industry players. The question is what ‘hydrogen market’ are they referring to as there is currently no such market established? In this podcast David Ledesma talks to Patrick Heather Senior Research Fellow at the OIES and discusses how a future traded hydrogen market might develop what the prerequisites would be for the development of a wholesale market and whether there are lessons to be learned from the development of the European natural gas market. The podcast ends up by asking the fundamental question – If the European gas market took 25-30 years to liberalise and develop a liquid traded pricing hub where are we headed with hydrogen? Will we ever see a traded market in hydrogen and what must happen to get there? Patrick is cautiously optimistic in his response!
The podcast can be found on their website
The podcast can be found on their website
Establishing a Hydrogen Economy: The Future of Energy 2035
May 2019
Publication
The next few decades are expected to be among the most transformative the energy sector has ever seen. Arup envisages a world with a much more diverse range of heating sources and with significantly lower emissions and renewable energy powering transport.<br/>As part of this the establishment of a strong hydrogen economy is a very real opportunity and is within reaching distance. Our report uses the UK as a case study example and explores the challenges and opportunities for hydrogen in the context of the whole energy system.<br/>Read about the progress already being made in using hydrogen for transport and heat. And the need to progress policy and collaboration between government the private sector and other stakeholders to shape future demand change consumer perception and create the strong supply chains needed to allow the hydrogen economy to thrive.
Opportunity and Cost of Green Hydrogen in Kuwait: A Preliminary Assessment
Apr 2021
Publication
On April 7 2021 OIES with and the Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Sciences (KFAS) held the annual OIES-KFAS Workshop on Energy Transition Post-Pandemic in the Gulf. During the hydrogen session a paper titled “Opportunity and Cost of Green Hydrogen in Kuwait: A Preliminary Assessment” co-authored by Dr. Manal Shehabi was presented.
Like others states in the GCC Kuwait is seeking to explore hydrogen as part of its energy transition projects. The presentation highlights key technological opportunities for green hydrogen in Kuwait followed by a techno-economic assessments of producing it. Results of utilized hydrogen production model show that for production in 2032 average levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is $3.23/kg using PEM technology & $4.41/kg using SOEC technology. Results indicate that green hydrogen in Kuwait is more competitive than in other regions but currently not competitive (>$1.5/kg) with oil coal and gas in absence of carbon taxes.
The research paper can be found on their website
Like others states in the GCC Kuwait is seeking to explore hydrogen as part of its energy transition projects. The presentation highlights key technological opportunities for green hydrogen in Kuwait followed by a techno-economic assessments of producing it. Results of utilized hydrogen production model show that for production in 2032 average levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is $3.23/kg using PEM technology & $4.41/kg using SOEC technology. Results indicate that green hydrogen in Kuwait is more competitive than in other regions but currently not competitive (>$1.5/kg) with oil coal and gas in absence of carbon taxes.
The research paper can be found on their website
Balancing GHG Mitigation and Land-use Conflicts: Alternative Northern European Energy System Scenarios
Jan 2022
Publication
Long-term power market outlooks suggest a rapid increase in renewable energy deployment as a main solution to greenhouse gas mitigation in the Northern European energy system. However the consequential area requirement is a non-techno-economic aspect that currently is omitted by many energy system optimization models. This study applies modeling to generate alternatives (MGA) technique to the Balmorel energy system model to address spatial conflicts related to increased renewable energy deployment. The approach searches for alternative solutions that minimize land-use conflicts while meeting the low-carbon target by allowing a 1% to 15% increase in system costs compared to the least-cost solution. Two alternative objectives are defined to reflect various aspects of spatial impact. The results show that the least-cost solution requires 1.2%–3.6% of the land in the modeled countries in 2040 for onshore wind and solar PV installations. A 10% increase in costs can reduce the required land area by 58% by relying more on offshore wind. Nuclear energy may also be an option if both onshore and offshore areas are to be reduced or in a less flexible system. Both offshore wind and nuclear energy technologies are associated with higher risks and pose uncertainties in terms of reaching the climate targets in time. The changes in costs and required land areas imply significantly higher annual costs ranging from 200 to 750 kEUR/km2 to avoid land use for energy infrastructure. Overall this study confirms that the energy transition strategies prioritizing land savings from energy infrastructure are feasible but high risks and costs of averted land are involved.
Road Map to a US Hydrogen Energy: Reducing Emissions and Driving Growth Across the Nation
Oct 2020
Publication
This US Hydrogen Road Map was created through the collaboration of executives and technical industry experts in hydrogen across a broad range of applications and sectors who are committed to improving the understanding of hydrogen and how to increase its adoption across many sectors of the economy. For the first time this coalition of industry leaders has convened to develop a targeted holistic approach for expanding the use of hydrogen as an energy carrier. Due to great variation among national and state policies infrastructure needs and community interests each state and region of the US will likely have its own specific policies and road maps for implementing hydrogen infrastructure. The West Coast for example has traditionally had progressive policies on reducing transportation emissions so it is likely that hydrogen will scale sooner for vehicles in this region especially California. Experts also acknowledge the role that hydrogen in combination with renewables can play in supplying microgrid-type power to communities with the highest risk of shut-offs during seasonal weather-related issues such as high temperatures or wildfire-related power interruptions. Some states have emphasized the need to decarbonize the gas grid so blending hydrogen in natural gas networks and using hydrogen as feedstock may advance more quickly in these regions. Other states are interested in hydrogen as a means to address power grid issues enable the deployment of renewables and support competitive nuclear power. The launch of hydrogen technologies in some states or regions will help to scale hydrogen in various applications across the country laying the foundation for energy security grid resiliency economic growth and the reduction of both greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and air pollutants. This report outlines the benefits and impact of fuel cell technologies and hydrogen as a viable solution to the energy challenges facing the US through 2030 and beyond. As such it can serve as the latest comprehensive industry-driven national road map to accelerate and scale up hydrogen in the economy across North America
Investment Frameworks for Development of CCUS in the UK
Jul 2019
Publication
The CCUS Advisory Group (CAG) established in March 2019 is an industry-led group considering the critical challenges facing the development of CCUS market frameworks and providing insight into potential solutions. The CAG brings together experts from across the CCUS industry finance and legal sectors.<br/>The CAG has examined a range of business models focusing on industrial CCUS power production CO? transport and storage and hydrogen production. It has considered how the proposed business models interact in order to minimise issues such as cross-chain risk and has considered issues such as delivery capability. The conclusions of the CAG can be found in this report.
The Role of Trust and Familiarity in Risk Communication
Sep 2009
Publication
In socio-economics it is well known that the success of an innovation process not only depends upon the technological innovation itself or the improvement of economic and institutional system boundaries but also on the public acceptance of the innovation. The public acceptance can as seen with genetic engineering for agriculture be an obstacle for the development and introduction of a new and innovative idea. In respect to hydrogen technologies this means that the investigation compilation and communication of scientific risk assessments are not sufficient to enhance or generate public acceptance. Moreover psychological social and cultural aspects of risk perception have to be considered when introducing new technologies. Especially trust and familiarity play an important role for risk perception and thus public acceptance of new technologies.
Decarbonizing Russia: Leapfrogging from Fossil Fuel to Hydrogen
Jan 2022
Publication
We examine a different approach to complete the decarbonization of the Russian economy in a world where climate policy increasingly requires the radical reduction of emissions wherever possible. We propose an energy system that can supply solar and wind-generated electricity to fulfill demand and which accounts for intermittency problems. This is instead of the common approach of planning for expensive carbon capture and storage and a massive increase in energy efficiency and therefore a drastic reduction in energy use per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Coupled with this massive increase in alternative energy we also propose using excess electricity to generate green hydrogen. Hydrogen technology can function as storage for future electricity needs or for potential fuel use. Importantly green hydrogen can potentially be used as a replacement export for Russia’s current fossil fuel exports. The analysis was carried out using the highly detailed modeling framework the High-Resolution Renewable Energy System for Russia (HIRES-RUS) representative energy system. The modeling showed that there are a number of feasible combinations of wind and solar power generation coupled with green hydrogen production to achieve 100% decarbonization of the Russian economy.
Heading for Hydrogen - The Oil and Gas Industry’s Outlook for Hydrogen, From Ambition to Reality
May 2020
Publication
The future of hydrogen energy is wrapped up with the future of natural gas renewable energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS). This yields useful synergies but also political economic and technical complexity. Nevertheless our survey of more than 1000 senior oil and gas professionals suggests a more certain future for hydrogen and that the time is right to begin scaling the hydrogen economy.
Hydrogen as an Energy Carrier: An Evaluation of Emerging Hydrogen Value Chains
Nov 2018
Publication
Some 3% of global energy consumption today is used to produce hydrogen. Only 0.002% of this hydrogen about 1000 tonnes per annum(i) is used as an energy carrier. Yet as this timely position paper from DNV GL indicates hydrogen can become a major clean energy carrier in a world struggling to limit global warming.<br/>The company’s recently published 2018 Energy Transition Outlook(1) projects moderate uptake of hydrogen in this role towards 2050 then significant growth towards 2100. Building on that this position paper provides a more granular analysis of hydrogen as an energy carrier.
Clean Energy and the Hydrogen Economy
Jan 2017
Publication
In recent years new-found interest in the hydrogen economy from both industry and academia has helped to shed light on its potential. Hydrogen can enable an energy revolution by providing much needed flexibility in renewable energy systems. As a clean energy carrier hydrogen offers a range of benefits for simultaneously decarbonizing the transport residential commercial and industrial sectors. Hydrogen is shown here to have synergies with other low-carbon alternatives and can enable a more cost-effective transition to de-carbonized and cleaner energy systems. This paper presents the opportunities for the use of hydrogen in key sectors of the economy and identifies the benefits and challenges within the hydrogen supply chain for power-to-gas power-to-power and gas-to-gas supply pathways. While industry players have already started the market introduction of hydrogen fuel cell systems including fuel cell electric vehicles and micro-combined heat and power devices the use of hydrogen at grid scale requires the challenges of clean hydrogen production bulk storage and distribution to be resolved. Ultimately greater government support in partnership with industry and academia is still needed to realize hydrogen's potential across all economic sectors.
Link to document download on Royal Society Website
Link to document download on Royal Society Website
How the UK’s Hydrogen Sector Can Help Support the UK’s Economic Recovery
Jul 2020
Publication
The APPG on Hydrogen’s latest report urges the Government to move quickly on hydrogen and set ambitious policies to unlock investment create employment opportunities and support the UK’s net-zero targets.
The APPG on Hydrogen’s report developed as part of its inquiry into ‘How the UK’s hydrogen sector can help support the UK’s economic recovery’ sets out 15 recommendations to support and accelerate the growth of the UK’s hydrogen sector.
These include:
The APPG on Hydrogen’s report developed as part of its inquiry into ‘How the UK’s hydrogen sector can help support the UK’s economic recovery’ sets out 15 recommendations to support and accelerate the growth of the UK’s hydrogen sector.
These include:
- Developing a cross-departmental hydrogen strategy between Government and industry
- Using regulatory levers to unlock private sector investment required including amending the GSMR and expanding the remit of the Bus Service Operator Grant
- Setting interim targets for low-carbon hydrogen production by 2030 alongside the introduction of a Low Carbon Obligation to enable investment in low carbon forms of heating such as hydrogen
- Mandating hydrogen-ready boilers by 2025
- Creating greater incentives in hydrogen alternatives to support organisations and customers who produce purchase or use hydrogen HGVs buses and trains
- Working with local and regional authorities exploring hydrogen’s potential to support the uptake and commercialisation of existing projects
- Setting more ambitious policies and financial targets on hydrogen to meet net-zero by 2050 ahead of other international competitors
- Ensuring the UK hydrogen industry plays a major role at COP26 allowing the UK to inspire other nations and sell its products and services
- Delivering funding models to create investment and economic jobs directly to the UK
- Implementing measures similar to Offshore Wind such as Contracts for Difference to incentivise industry and scale-up a hydrogen economy.
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