Policy & Socio-Economics
Webinar to Launch New Hydrogen Economy - Hope or Hype?
Jun 2019
Publication
On 26 June the World Energy Council held a webinar presenting the results of its latest Innovation Insights Brief on hydrogen engaging three key experts on the topic:
Nigel Brandon Dean of the Faculty of Engineering Imperial College London
Craig Knight Director of Industrial Solutions Horizon Fuel Cell Technology
Dan Sadler H21 Project Manager for Equinor
During the webinar the experts answered a series of policy technical and safety questions from the audience. The webinar started with a poll to get a sense of which sectors attendees saw hydrogen playing a key role in 2040 - 77% chose industrial processes 54% mobility and 31% power generation. The questions ranged from the opportunities and limitations of blending hydrogen with natural gas to safety concerns surrounding hydrogen.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS:
How much hydrogen can be blended with natural gas depends on the rules and regulation of each country. The general consensus is that blending 10% by volume of hydrogen presents no safety concerns or specific difficulties. This would provide an opportunity to develop low hydrogen markets. Nevertheless blending should not be the end destination. It is not sufficient to meet carbon abatement targets.
Low carbon ammonia has a role to play in the new hydrogen economy. It is a proven and understood technology which is easier to move around the world and could be used directly as ammonia or cracked back into hydrogen.
One of the main focus today should be to replace grey hydrogen with green hydrogen in existing supply chains as there would be no efficiency losses in the process.
In China the push for hydrogen is transport-related. This is driven by air quality and energy independence concerns. In the next 10 years the full life cost of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) is expected to be lower than for internal combustion engines. This is due to the fact that FCEVs require less maintenance and that the residual value in the fuel cells is relatively high. At the end of life 95% of the platinum in fuel cells can be repurposed.
FCEVs should not be regarded as competing with battery electric vehicles they sit next to each other on product maps. FCEVs can benefit from the all of the advances in electric drive train systems and electric motors.
To close the webinar attendees were asked whether hydrogen was going through another hype cycle or if it was here to stay. 10% answered hype and 90% here to stay.
Nigel Brandon Dean of the Faculty of Engineering Imperial College London
Craig Knight Director of Industrial Solutions Horizon Fuel Cell Technology
Dan Sadler H21 Project Manager for Equinor
During the webinar the experts answered a series of policy technical and safety questions from the audience. The webinar started with a poll to get a sense of which sectors attendees saw hydrogen playing a key role in 2040 - 77% chose industrial processes 54% mobility and 31% power generation. The questions ranged from the opportunities and limitations of blending hydrogen with natural gas to safety concerns surrounding hydrogen.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS:
How much hydrogen can be blended with natural gas depends on the rules and regulation of each country. The general consensus is that blending 10% by volume of hydrogen presents no safety concerns or specific difficulties. This would provide an opportunity to develop low hydrogen markets. Nevertheless blending should not be the end destination. It is not sufficient to meet carbon abatement targets.
Low carbon ammonia has a role to play in the new hydrogen economy. It is a proven and understood technology which is easier to move around the world and could be used directly as ammonia or cracked back into hydrogen.
One of the main focus today should be to replace grey hydrogen with green hydrogen in existing supply chains as there would be no efficiency losses in the process.
In China the push for hydrogen is transport-related. This is driven by air quality and energy independence concerns. In the next 10 years the full life cost of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) is expected to be lower than for internal combustion engines. This is due to the fact that FCEVs require less maintenance and that the residual value in the fuel cells is relatively high. At the end of life 95% of the platinum in fuel cells can be repurposed.
FCEVs should not be regarded as competing with battery electric vehicles they sit next to each other on product maps. FCEVs can benefit from the all of the advances in electric drive train systems and electric motors.
To close the webinar attendees were asked whether hydrogen was going through another hype cycle or if it was here to stay. 10% answered hype and 90% here to stay.
Decarbonization of Cement Production in a Hydrogen Economy
Apr 2022
Publication
The transition to net-zero emission energy systems creates synergistic opportunities across sectors. For example fuel hydrogen production from water electrolysis generates by-product oxygen that could be used to reduce the cost of carbon capture and storage (CCS) essential in the decarbonization of clinker production in cement making. To assess this opportunity a techno-economic assessment was carried out for the production of clinker using oxy-combustion in a natural gas-fueled plant coupled to CCS. Material and energy flows were assessed in a reference case for clinker production (oxygen from air no CCS) and compared to oxy-combustion clinker production from either an air separation unit (ASU 95% O2) or water electrolysis (100% O2) both coupled to CCS. Compared to the reference air-combusted clinker plant oxy-combustion increases thermal energy demand by 7% and electricity demand by 137% for ASU and 67% for electrolytic oxygen. The levelized cost of oxygen supply ranges from $49/tO2 for an on-site ASU to pipelined electrolytic O2 at $35/tO2 (200 km) or $13/t O2 (20 km). The cost of clinker for the reference plant without CCS increases linearly from $84/t clinker to $193/t clinker at a carbon price of $0/tCO2 to $150/tCO2 respectively. With oxy-combustion and CCS the clinker production cost ranges from $119 to $122/t clinker reflecting a breakeven carbon price of $39 to $53/tCO2 compared to the reference case. The lower cost for the electrolytic supply of by-product oxygen compared to ASU oxygen must be balanced against the reliability of supply the pipeline transport distance and the charges that may be added by the hydrogen producer.
At What Cost Can Renewable Hydrogen Offset Fossil Fuel Use in Ireland’s Gas Network?
Apr 2020
Publication
The results of a techno-economic model of distributed wind-hydrogen systems (WHS) located at each existing wind farm on the island of Ireland are presented in this paper. Hydrogen is produced by water electrolysis from wind energy and backed up by grid electricity compressed before temporarily stored then transported to the nearest injection location on the natural gas network. The model employs a novel correlation-based approach to select an optimum electrolyser capacity that generates a minimum levelised cost of hydrogen production (LCOH) for each WHS. Three scenarios of electrolyser operation are studied: (1) curtailed wind (2) available wind and (3) full capacity operations. Additionally two sets of input parameters are used: (1) current and (2) future techno-economic parameters. Additionally two electricity prices are considered: (1) low and (2) high prices. A closest facility algorithm in a geographic information system (GIS) package identifies the shortest routes from each WHS to its nearest injection point. By using current parameters results show that small wind farms are not suitable to run electrolysers under available wind operation. They must be run at full capacity to achieve sufficiently low LCOH. At full capacity the future average LCOH is 6–8 €/kg with total hydrogen production capacity of 49 kilotonnes per year or equivalent to nearly 3% of Irish natural gas consumption. This potential will increase significantly due to the projected expansion of installed wind capacity in Ireland from 5 GW in 2020 to 10 GW in 2030
Scenario-Based Techno-Economic Analysis of Steam Methane Reforming Process for Hydrogen Production
Jun 2021
Publication
Steam methane reforming (SMR) process is regarded as a viable option to satisfy the growing demand for hydrogen mainly because of its capability for the mass production of hydrogen and the maturity of the technology. In this study an economically optimal process configuration of SMR is proposed by investigating six scenarios with different design and operating conditions including CO2 emission permits and CO2 capture and sale. Of the six scenarios the process configuration involving CO2 capture and sale is the most economical with an H2 production cost of $1.80/kg-H2. A wide range of economic analyses is performed to identify the tradeoffs and cost drivers of the SMR process in the economically optimal scenario. Depending on the CO2 selling price and the CO2 capture cost the economic feasibility of the SMR-based H2 production process can be further improved.
Inefficient Investments as a Key to Narrowing Regional Economic Imbalances
Feb 2022
Publication
Policy led decisions aiming at decarbonizing the economy may well exacerbate existing regional economic imbalances. These effects are seldomly recognised in spatially aggregated top-down and techno-economic decarbonization strategies. Here we present a spatial economic framework that quantifies the gross value added associated with low carbon hydrogen investments while accounting for region-specific factors such as the industrial specialization of regions their relative size and their economic interdependencies. In our case study which uses low carbon hydrogen produced via autothermal reforming combined with carbon capture and storage to decarbonize the energy intensive industries in Europe and in the UK we demonstrate that interregional economic interdependencies drive the overall economic benefits of the decarbonization. Policies intended to concurrently transition to net zero and address existing regional imbalances as in the case of the UK Industrial Decarbonization Challenge should take these local factors into account.
Hydrogen Production, Storage and Transport for Renewable Energy and Chemicals: An Environmental Footprint Assessment
Dec 2022
Publication
Hydrogen applications range from an energy carrier to a feedstock producing bulk and other chemicals and as an essential reactant in various industrial applications. However the sustainability of hydrogen production storage and transport are neither unquestionable nor equal. Hydrogen is produced from natural gas biogas aluminium acid gas biomass electrolytic water splitting and others; a total of eleven sources were investigated in this work. The environmental impact of hydrogen production storage and transport is evaluated in terms of greenhouse gas and energy footprints acidification eutrophication human toxicity potential and eco-cost. Different electricity mixes and energy footprint accounting approaches supported by sensitivity analysis are conducted for a comprehensive overview. H2 produced from acid gas is identified as the production route with the highest eco-benefit (− 41188 €/t H2) while the biomass gasification method incurred the highest eco-cost (11259 €/t H2). The water electrolysis method shows a net positive energy footprint (60.32 GJ/t H2) suggesting that more energy is used than produced. Considering the operating footprint of storage and transportation gaseous hydrogen transported via a pipeline is a better alternative from an environmental point of view and with a lower energy footprint (38 %–85%) than the other options. Storage and transport (without construction) could have accounted for around 35.5% of the total GHG footprint of a hydrogen value chain (production storage transportation and losses) if liquefied and transported via road transport instead of a pipeline. The identified results propose which technologies are less burdensome to the environment.
A Review of Technical Advances, Barriers, and Solutions in the Power to Hydrogen Roadmap
Oct 2020
Publication
Power to hydrogen (P2H) provides a promising solution to the geographic mismatch between sources of renewable energy and the market due to its technological maturity flexibility and the availability of technical and economic data from a range of active demonstration projects. In this review we aim to provide an overview of the status of P2H analyze its technical barriers and solutions and propose potential opportunities for future research and industrial demonstrations. We specifically focus on the transport of hydrogen via natural gas pipeline networks and end-user purification. Strong evidence shows that an addition of about 10% hydrogen into natural gas pipelines has negligible effects on the pipelines and utilization appliances and may therefore extend the asset value of the pipelines after natural gas is depleted. To obtain pure hydrogen from hydrogen-enriched natural gas (HENG) mixtures end-user separation is inevitable and can be achieved through membranes adsorption and other promising separation technologies. However novel materials with high selectivity and capacity will be the key to the development of industrial processes and an integrated membrane-adsorption process may be considered in order to produce high-purity hydrogen from HENG. It is also worth investigating the feasibility of electrochemical separation (hydrogen pumping) at a large scale and its energy analysis. Cryogenics may only be feasible when liquefied natural gas (LNG) is one of the major products. A range of other technological and operational barriers and opportunities such as water availability byproduct (oxygen) utilization and environmental impacts are also discussed. This review will advance readers’ understanding of P2H and foster the development of the hydrogen economy.
Delivering Net-zero Carbon Heat: Technoeconomic and Whole-system Comparisons of Domestic Electricity- and Hydrogen-driven Technologies in the UK
Apr 2022
Publication
Proposed sustainable transition pathways for moving away from natural gas in domestic heating focus on two main energy vectors: electricity and hydrogen. Electrification would be implemented by using vapourcompression heat pumps which are currently experiencing market growth in many countries. On the other hand hydrogen could substitute natural gas in boilers or be used in thermally–driven absorption heat pumps. In this paper a consistent thermodynamic and economic methodology is developed to assess the competitiveness of these options. The three technologies along with the option of district heating are for the first time compared for different weather/ambient conditions and fuel-price scenarios first from a homeowner’s and then from a wholeenergy system perspective. For the former two-dimensional decision maps are generated to identify the most cost-effective technologies for different combinations of fuel prices. It is shown that in the UK hydrogen technologies are economically favourable if hydrogen is supplied to domestic end-users at a price below half of the electricity price. Otherwise electrification and the use of conventional electric heat pumps will be preferred. From a whole-energy system perspective the total system cost per household (which accounts for upstream generation and storage as well as technology investment installation and maintenance) associated with electric heat pumps varies between 790 and 880 £/year for different scenarios making it the least-cost decarbonisation pathway. If hydrogen is produced by electrolysis the total system cost associated with hydrogen technologies is notably higher varying between 1410 and 1880 £/year. However this total system cost drops to 1150 £/year with hydrogen produced cost-effectively by methane reforming and carbon capture and storage thus reducing the gap between electricity- and hydrogen-driven technologies.
Options for Producing Low-carbon Hydrogen at Scale
Feb 2018
Publication
Low-carbon hydrogen has the potential to play a significant role in tackling climate change and poor air quality. This policy briefing considers how hydrogen could be produced at a useful scale to power vehicles heat homes and supply industrial processes.
Four groups of hydrogen production technologies are examined:
Thermochemical Routes to Hydrogen
These methods typically use heat and fossil fuels. Steam methane reforming is the dominant commercial technology and currently produces hydrogen on a large scale but is not currently low carbon. Carbon capture is therefore essential with this process. Innovative technology developments may also help and research is underway. Alternative thermal methods of creating hydrogen indicate biomass gasification has potential. Other techniques at a low technology readiness level include separation of hydrogen from hydrocarbons using microwaves.
Electrolytic Routes to Hydrogen
Electrolytic hydrogen production also known as electrolysis splits water into hydrogen and oxygen using electricity in an electrolysis cell. Electrolysis produces pure hydrogen which is ideal for low temperature fuel cells for example in electric vehicles. Commercial electrolysers are on the market and have been in use for many years. Further technology developments will enable new generation electrolysers to be commercially competitive when used at scale with fluctuating renewable energy sources.
Biological Routes to Hydrogen
Biological routes usually involve the conversion of biomass to hydrogen and other valuable end products using microbial processes. Methods such as anaerobic digestion are feasible now at a laboratory and small pilot scale. This technology may prove to have additional or greater impact and value as route for the production of high value chemicals within a biorefinery concept.
Solar to Fuels Routes to Hydrogen
A number of experimental techniques have been reported the most developed of which is ‘solar to fuels’ - a suite of technologies that typically split water into hydrogen and oxygen using solar energy. These methods have close parallels with the process of photosynthesis and are often referred to as ‘artificial photosynthesis’ processes. The research is promising though views are divided on its ultimate utility. Competition for space will always limit the scale up of solar to fuels.
The briefing concludes that steam methane reforming and electrolysis are the most likely technologies to be deployed to produce low-carbon hydrogen at volume in the near to mid-term providing that the challenges of high levels of carbon capture (for steam methane reforming) and cost reduction and renewable energy sources (for electrolysis) can be overcome.
Four groups of hydrogen production technologies are examined:
Thermochemical Routes to Hydrogen
These methods typically use heat and fossil fuels. Steam methane reforming is the dominant commercial technology and currently produces hydrogen on a large scale but is not currently low carbon. Carbon capture is therefore essential with this process. Innovative technology developments may also help and research is underway. Alternative thermal methods of creating hydrogen indicate biomass gasification has potential. Other techniques at a low technology readiness level include separation of hydrogen from hydrocarbons using microwaves.
Electrolytic Routes to Hydrogen
Electrolytic hydrogen production also known as electrolysis splits water into hydrogen and oxygen using electricity in an electrolysis cell. Electrolysis produces pure hydrogen which is ideal for low temperature fuel cells for example in electric vehicles. Commercial electrolysers are on the market and have been in use for many years. Further technology developments will enable new generation electrolysers to be commercially competitive when used at scale with fluctuating renewable energy sources.
Biological Routes to Hydrogen
Biological routes usually involve the conversion of biomass to hydrogen and other valuable end products using microbial processes. Methods such as anaerobic digestion are feasible now at a laboratory and small pilot scale. This technology may prove to have additional or greater impact and value as route for the production of high value chemicals within a biorefinery concept.
Solar to Fuels Routes to Hydrogen
A number of experimental techniques have been reported the most developed of which is ‘solar to fuels’ - a suite of technologies that typically split water into hydrogen and oxygen using solar energy. These methods have close parallels with the process of photosynthesis and are often referred to as ‘artificial photosynthesis’ processes. The research is promising though views are divided on its ultimate utility. Competition for space will always limit the scale up of solar to fuels.
The briefing concludes that steam methane reforming and electrolysis are the most likely technologies to be deployed to produce low-carbon hydrogen at volume in the near to mid-term providing that the challenges of high levels of carbon capture (for steam methane reforming) and cost reduction and renewable energy sources (for electrolysis) can be overcome.
The Path to Carbon Neutrality in China: A Paradigm Shift in Fossil Resource Utilization
Jan 2022
Publication
The Paris Agreement has set the goal of carbon neutrality to cope with global climate change. China has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 which will strategically change everything in our society. As the main source of carbon emissions the consumption of fossil energy is the most profoundly affected by carbon neutrality. This work presents an analysis of how China can achieve its goal of carbon neutrality based on its status of fossil energy utilization. The significance of transforming fossils from energy to resource utilization in the future is addressed while the development direction and key technologies are discussed.
Between Hope And Hype: A Hydrogen Vision For The UK
Mar 2021
Publication
There is a growing conversation around the role that hydrogen can play in the future of the UK and how to best harness its potential to secure jobs show climate leadership promote industrial competitiveness and drive innovation. The Government’s ‘Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution’ included hydrogen as one of its ten actions targeting 5GW of ‘low carbon’ hydrogen production by 2030. Britain is thus joining the EU US Japan Germany and a host of other countries seeking to be part of the hydrogen economy of the future.<br/><br/>A focus on clean green hydrogen within targeted sectors and hubs can support multiple Government goals – including demonstrating climate leadership reducing regional inequalities through the ‘levelling up’ agenda and ensuring a green and cost-effective recovery from the coronavirus pandemic which prioritises jobs and skills. A strategic hydrogen vision must be honest and recognise where green hydrogen does not present the optimal pathway for decarbonisation – for instance where alternative solutions are already readily available for roll-out are more efficient and cost-effective. A clear example is hydrogen use for heating where it is estimated to require around 30 times more offshore wind farm capacity than currently available to produce enough green hydrogen to replace all gas boilers as well as adding costs for consumers.<br/><br/>This paper considers the offer of hydrogen for key Government priorities – including an inclusive and resilient economic recovery from the pandemic demonstrating climate leadership and delivering for all of society across the UK. It assesses existing evidence and considers the risks and opportunities and how they might inform a strategic vision for the UK. Ahead of the forthcoming Hydrogen Strategy it sets expectations for Government and outlines key recommendations.
Australian Hydrogen Hubs Study
Nov 2019
Publication
Arup have conducted interviews with targeted industry and government stakeholders to gather data and perspectives to support the development of this study. Arup have also utilised private and publicly available data sources building on recent work undertaken by Geoscience Australia and Deloitte and the comprehensive stakeholder engagement process to inform our research. This study considers the supply chain and infrastructure requirements to support the development of export and domestic hubs. The study aims to provide a succinct “Hydrogen Hubs” report for presentation to the hydrogen working group.
The hydrogen supply chain infrastructure required to produce hydrogen for export and domestic hubs was identified along with feedback from the stakeholder engagement process. These infrastructure requirements can be used to determine the factors for assessing export and domestic hub opportunities. Hydrogen production pathways transportation mechanisms and uses were also further evaluated to identify how hubs can be used to balance supply and demand of hydrogen.
A preliminary list of current or anticipated locations has been developed through desktop research Arup project knowledge and the stakeholder consultation process. Over 30 potential hydrogen export locations have been identified in Australia through desktop research and the stakeholder survey and consultation process. In addition to establishing export hubs the creation of domestic demand hubs will be essential to the development of an Australian hydrogen economy. It is for this reason that a list of criteria has been developed for stakeholders to consider in the siting and design of hydrogen hubs. The key considerations explored are based on demand supply chain infrastructure and investment and policy areas.
Based on these considerations a list of criteria were developed to assess the viability of export and domestic hydrogen hubs. Criteria relevant to assessing the suitability of export and domestic hubs include:
A framework that includes the assessment criteria has been developed to aid decision making rather than recommending specific locations that would be most appropriate for a hub. This is because there are so many dynamic factors that go into selecting a location of a hydrogen hub that it is not appropriate to be overly prescriptive or prevent stakeholders from selecting the best location themselves or from the market making decisions based on its own research and knowledge. The developed framework rather provides information and support to enable these decision-making processes.
The hydrogen supply chain infrastructure required to produce hydrogen for export and domestic hubs was identified along with feedback from the stakeholder engagement process. These infrastructure requirements can be used to determine the factors for assessing export and domestic hub opportunities. Hydrogen production pathways transportation mechanisms and uses were also further evaluated to identify how hubs can be used to balance supply and demand of hydrogen.
A preliminary list of current or anticipated locations has been developed through desktop research Arup project knowledge and the stakeholder consultation process. Over 30 potential hydrogen export locations have been identified in Australia through desktop research and the stakeholder survey and consultation process. In addition to establishing export hubs the creation of domestic demand hubs will be essential to the development of an Australian hydrogen economy. It is for this reason that a list of criteria has been developed for stakeholders to consider in the siting and design of hydrogen hubs. The key considerations explored are based on demand supply chain infrastructure and investment and policy areas.
Based on these considerations a list of criteria were developed to assess the viability of export and domestic hydrogen hubs. Criteria relevant to assessing the suitability of export and domestic hubs include:
- Health and safety provisions;
- Environmental considerations;
- Economic and social considerations;
- Land availability with appropriate zoning and buffer distances & ownership (new terminals storage solar PV industries etc.);•
- Availability of gas pipeline infrastructure;
- Availability of electricity grid connectivity backup energy supply or co-location of renewables;
- Road & rail infrastructure (site access);
- Community and environmental concerns and weather. Social licence consideration;
- Berths (berthing depth ship storage loading facilities existing LNG and/or petroleum infrastructure etc.);
- Port potential (current capacity & occupancy expandability & scalability);
- Availability of or potential for skilled workers (construction & operation);
- Availability of or potential for water (recycled & desalinated);
- Opportunity for co-location with industrial ammonia production and future industrial opportunities;
- Interest (projects priority ports state development areas politics etc.);
- Shipping distance to target market (Japan & South Korea);
- Availability of demand-based infrastructure (i.e. refuelling stations).
A framework that includes the assessment criteria has been developed to aid decision making rather than recommending specific locations that would be most appropriate for a hub. This is because there are so many dynamic factors that go into selecting a location of a hydrogen hub that it is not appropriate to be overly prescriptive or prevent stakeholders from selecting the best location themselves or from the market making decisions based on its own research and knowledge. The developed framework rather provides information and support to enable these decision-making processes.
Timmermans’ Dream: An Electricity and Hydrogen Partnership Between Europe and North Africa
Oct 2021
Publication
Because of differences in irradiation levels it could be more efficient to produce solar electricity and hydrogen in North Africa and import these energy carriers to Europe rather than generating them at higher costs domestically in Europe. From a global climate change mitigation point of view exploiting such efficiencies can be profitable since they reduce overall renewable electricity capacity requirements. Yet the construction of this capacity in North Africa would imply costs associated with the infrastructure needed to transport electricity and hydrogen. The ensuing geopolitical dependencies may also raise energy security concerns. With the integrated assessment model TIAM-ECN we quantify the trade-off between costs and benefits emanating from establishing import-export links between Europe and North Africa for electricity and hydrogen. We show that for Europe a net price may have to be paid for exploiting such interlinkages even while they reduce the domestic investments for renewable electricity capacity needed to implement the EU’s Green Deal. For North African countries the potential net benefits thanks to trade revenues may build up to 50 billion €/yr in 2050. Despite fears over costs and security Europe should seriously consider an energy partnership with North Africa because trade revenues are likely to lead to positive employment income and stability effects in North Africa. Europe can indirectly benefit from such impacts.
100% Renewable Energy in Japan
Feb 2022
Publication
Low-cost solar photovoltaics and wind offer a reliable and affordable pathway to deep decarbonization of energy which accounts for three quarters of global emissions. However large-scale deployment of solar photovoltaics and wind requires space and may be challenging for countries with dense population and high per capita energy consumption. This study investigates the future role of renewable energy in Japan as a case study. A 40-year hourly energy balance model is presented of a hypothetical 100% renewable Japanese electricity system using representative demand data and historical meteorological data. Pumped hydro energy storage high voltage interconnection and dispatchable capacity (existing hydro and biomass and hydrogen energy produced from curtailed electricity) are included to balance variable generation and demand. Differential evolution is used to find the least-cost solution under various constraints. This study shows that Japan has 14 times more solar and offshore wind resources than needed to supply 100% renewable electricity and vast capacity for off-river pumped hydro energy storage. Assuming significant cost reductions of solar photovoltaics and offshore wind towards global norms in the coming decades driven by large-scale deployment locally and global convergence of renewable generation costs the levelized cost of electricity is found to be US$86/Megawatt-hour for a solar-dominated system and US$110/Megawatt-hour for a wind-dominated system. These costs can be compared with 2020 average system prices on the spot market in Japan of US$102/Megawatt-hour. Cost of balancing 100% renewable electricity in Japan ranges between US$20–27/Megawatt-hour for a range of scenarios. In summary Japan can be self-sufficient for electricity supply at competitive costs provided that the barriers to the mass deployment of solar photovoltaics and offshore wind in Japan are overcome.
Energy Modeling Approach to the Global Energy-mineral Nexus: Exploring Metal Requirements and the Well-below 2 °C Target with 100 Percent Renewable Energy
Jun 2018
Publication
Detailed analysis of pathways to future sustainable energy systems is important in order to identify and overcome potential constraints and negative impacts and to increase the utility and speed of this transition. A key aspect of a shift to renewable energy technologies is their relatively higher metal intensities. In this study a bottom-up cost-minimizing energy model is used to calculate aggregate metal requirements in different energy technology including hydrogen and climate policy scenarios and under a range of assumptions reflecting uncertainty in future metal intensities recycling rate and life time of energy technologies. Metal requirements are then compared to current production rates and resource estimates to identify potentially “critical” metals. Three technology pathways are investigated: 100 percent renewables coal & nuclear and gas & renewables each under the two different climate policies: net zero emissions satisfying the well-below 2 °C target and business as usual without carbon constraints resulting together in six scenarios. The results suggest that the three different technology pathways lead to an almost identical degree of warming without any climate policy while emissions peaks within a few decades with a 2 °C policy. The amount of metals required varies significantly in the different scenarios and under the various uncertainty assumptions. However some can be deemed “critical” in all outcomes including Vanadium. The originality of this study lies in the specific findings and in the employment of an energy model for the energy-mineral nexus study to provide better understanding for decision making and policy development.
The Role of Hydrocarbons in the Global Energy Agenda: The Focus on Liquefied Natural Gas
May 2020
Publication
Presently there is a paradoxical situation in the global energy market related to a gap between the image of hydrocarbon resources (HCR) and their real value for the economy. On the one hand we face an increase in expected HCR production and consumption volumes both in the short and long term. On the other hand we see the formation of the image of HCR and associated technologies as an unacceptable option without enough attention to the differences in fuels and the ways of their usage. Due to this it seems necessary to take a step back to review the vitality of such a political line. This article highlights an alternative point of view with regard to energy development prospects. The purpose of this article is to analyse the consistency of criticism towards HCR based on exploration of scientific literature analytical documents of international corporations and energy companies as well as critical assessment of technologies offered for the HCR substitution. The analysis showed that: (1) it is impossible to substitute the majority of HCR with alternative power resources in the near term (2) it is essential that the criticism of energy companies with regard to their responsibility for climate change should lead not to destruction of the industry but to the search of sustainable means for its development (3) the strategic benchmarks of oil and coal industries should shift towards chemical production but their significance should not be downgraded for the energy sector (4) liquified natural gas (LNG) is an independent industry with the highest expansion potential in global markets in the coming years as compared to alternative energy options and (5) Russia possesses a huge potential for the development of the gas industry and particularly LNG that will be unlocked if timely measures on higher efficiency of the state regulation system are implemented.
The Role of Green and Blue Hydrogen in the Energy Transition—A Technological and Geopolitical Perspective
Dec 2020
Publication
Hydrogen is currently enjoying a renewed and widespread momentum in many national and international climate strategies. This review paper is focused on analysing the challenges and opportunities that are related to green and blue hydrogen which are at the basis of different perspectives of a potential hydrogen society. While many governments and private companies are putting significant resources on the development of hydrogen technologies there still remains a high number of unsolved issues including technical challenges economic and geopolitical implications. The hydrogen supply chain includes a large number of steps resulting in additional energy losses and while much focus is put on hydrogen generation costs its transport and storage should not be neglected. A low-carbon hydrogen economy offers promising opportunities not only to fight climate change but also to enhance energy security and develop local industries in many countries. However to face the huge challenges of a transition towards a zero-carbon energy system all available technologies should be allowed to contribute based on measurable indicators which require a strong international consensus based on transparent standards and targets.
A Decarbonization Roadmap for Singapore and Its Energy Policy Implications
Oct 2021
Publication
As a signatory to the Paris Agreement Singapore is committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions in the second half of the century. In this paper we propose a decarbonization roadmap for Singapore based on an analysis of Singapore’s energy landscape and a technology mapping exercise. This roadmap consists of four major components. The first component which also underpins the other three components is using centralized post-combustion carbon capture technology to capture and compress CO2 emitted from multiple industrial sources in Jurong Island. The captured CO2 is then transported by ship or an existing natural gas pipeline to a neighboring country where it will be stored permanently in a subsurface reservoir. Important to the success of this first-of-a-kind cross-border carbon capture and storage (CCS) project is the establishment of a regional CCS corridor which makes use of economies of scale to reduce the cost of CO2 capture transport and injection. The second component of the roadmap is the production of hydrogen in a methane steam reforming plant which is integrated with the carbon capture plant. The third component is the modernizing of the refining sector by introducing biorefineries increasing output to petrochemical plants and employing post-combustion carbon capture. The fourth component is refueling the transport sector by introducing electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles using biofuels for aviation and hydrogen for marine vessels. The implications of this roadmap on Singapore’s energy policies are also discussed.
Greenhouse Gas Abatement in EUROPE—A Scenario-Based, Bottom-Up Analysis Showing the Effect of Deep Emission Mitigation on the European Energy System
Feb 2022
Publication
Greenhouse gas emissions need to be drastically reduced to mitigate the environmental impacts caused by climate change and to lead to a transformation of the European energy system. A model landscape consisting of four final energy consumption sector models with high spatial (NUTS-3) and temporal (hourly) resolution and the multi-energy system model ISAaR is extended and applied to investigate the transformation pathway of the European energy sector in the deep emission mitigation scenario solidEU. The solidEU scenario describes not only the techno-economic but also the socio-political contexts and it includes the EU27 + UK Norway and Switzerland. The scenario analysis shows that volatile renewable energy sources (vRES) dominate the energy system in 2050. In addition the share of flexible sector coupling technologies increases to balance electricity generation from vRES. Seasonal differences are balanced by hydrogen storage with a seasonal storage profile. The deployment rates of vRES in solidEU show that a fast profound energy transition is necessary to achieve European climate protection goals.
Quantifying the Potential of Renewable Natural Gas to Support a Reformed Energy Landscape: Estimates for New York State
Jun 2021
Publication
Public attention to climate change challenges our locked-in fossil fuel-dependent energy sector. Natural gas is replacing other fossil fuels in our energy mix. One way to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) impact of fossil natural gas is to replace it with renewable natural gas (RNG). The benefits of utilizing RNG are that it has no climate change impact when combusted and utilized in the same applications as fossil natural gas. RNG can be injected into the gas grid used as a transportation fuel or used for heating and electricity generation. Less common applications include utilizing RNG to produce chemicals such as methanol dimethyl ether and ammonia. The GHG impact should be quantified before committing to RNG. This study quantifies the potential production of biogas (i.e. the precursor to RNG) and RNG from agricultural and waste sources in New York State (NYS). It is unique because it is the first study to provide this analysis. The results showed that only about 10% of the state’s resources are used to generate biogas of which a small fraction is processed to RNG on the only two operational RNG facilities in the state. The impact of incorporating a second renewable substitute for fossil natural gas “green” hydrogen is also analyzed. It revealed that injecting RNG and “green” hydrogen gas into the pipeline system can reduce up to 20% of the state’s carbon emissions resulting from fossil natural gas usage which is a significant GHG reduction. Policy analysis for NYS shows that several state and federal policies support RNG production. However the value of RNG can be increased 10-fold by applying a similar incentive policy to California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS).
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