Policy & Socio-Economics
The Hydrogen Economy can Reduce Costs of Climate Change Mitigation by up to 22%
May 2024
Publication
In response to the urgent need to mitigate climate change via net-zero targets many nations are renewing their interest in clean hydrogen as a net-zero energy carrier. Although clean hydrogen can be directly used in various sectors for deep decarbonization the relatively low energy density and high production costs have raised doubts as to whether clean hydrogen development is worthwhile. Here we improve on the GCAM model by including a more comprehensive and detailed representation of clean hydrogen production distribution and demand in all sectors of the global economy and simulate 25 scenarios to explore the costeffectiveness of integrating clean hydrogen into the global energy system. We show that due to costly technical obstacles clean hydrogen can only provide 3%–9% of the 2050 global final energy use. Nevertheless clean hydrogen deployment can reduce overall energy decarbonization costs by 15%–22% mainly via powering ‘‘hard-to-electrify’’ sectors that would otherwise face high decarbonization expenditures. Our work provides practical references for cost-effective clean hydrogen planning.
Market-based Asset Valuation of Hydrogen Geological Storage
Jul 2023
Publication
Because of hydrogen's low energy density hydrogen storage is a critical component of the hydrogen economy particularly when large-scale and flexible hydrogen utilization is required. There is a sense of urgency to develop hydrogen geological storage projects to support large-scale yet flexible hydrogen utilization. This study aims to answer questions not yet resolved in the research literature discussing the valuation of hydrogen geological storage options for commercial development. This study establishes a net present value (NPV) evaluation framework for geological hydrogen storage that integrates the updated techno-economic analysis and market-based operations. The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the related finance theories are applied to determine the risk-adjusted discount rate in building the NPV evaluation framework. The NPV framework has been applied to two geological hydrogen storage projects a single-turn storage serving downstream transportation seasonal demand versus a multiturn storage as part of an integrated renewables-based hydrogen energy system providing peak electric load. From the NPV framework both projects have positive NPVs $46 560 632 and $12 457 546 respectively and International Rate of Return (IRR) values which are higher than the costs of capital. The NPV framework is also applied to the sensitivity analysis and shows that the hydrogen price spread between withdrawal and injection prices site development and well costs are the top three factors that impact both NPV and IRR the most for both projects. The established NPV framework can be used for project risk management by discovering the key cost drivers for the storage assets.
An Overview of Challenges for the Future of Hydrogen
Oct 2023
Publication
Hydrogen’s wide availability and versatile production methods establish it as a primary green energy source driving substantial interest among the public industry and governments due to its future fuel potential. Notable investment is directed toward hydrogen research and material innovation for transmission storage fuel cells and sensors. Ensuring safe and dependable hydrogen facilities is paramount given the challenges in accident control. Addressing material compatibility issues within hydrogen systems remains a critical focus. Challenges roadmaps and scenarios steer long-term planning and technology outlooks. Strategic visions align actions and policies encompassing societal and ecological dimensions. The confluence of hydrogen’s promise with material progress holds the prospect of reshaping our energy landscape sustainably. Forming collective future perspectives to foresee this emerging technology’s potential benefits is valuable. Our review article comprehensively explores the forthcoming challenges in hydrogen technology. We extensively examine the challenges and opportunities associated with hydrogen production incorporating CO2 capture technology. Furthermore the interaction of materials and composites with hydrogen particularly in the context of hydrogen transmission pipeline and infrastructure are discussed to understand the interplay between materials and hydrogen dynamics. Additionally the exploration extends to the embrittlement phenomena during storage and transmission coupled with a comprehensive examination of the advancements and hurdles intrinsic to hydrogen fuel cells. Finally our exploration encompasses addressing hydrogen safety from an industrial perspective. By illuminating these dimensions our article provides a panoramic view of the evolving hydrogen landscape.
The Role of Hydrogen for a Greenhouse Gas-neutral Germany by 2045
May 2023
Publication
This paper aims to provide a holistic analysis of the role of hydrogen for achieving greenhouse gas neutrality in Germany. For that purpose we apply an integrated energy system model which includes all demand sectors of the German energy system and optimizes the transformation pathway from today's energy system to a future cost-optimal energy system. We show that 412 TWh of hydrogen are needed in the year 2045 mostly in the industry and transport sector. Particularly the use of about 267 TWh of hydrogen in industry is essential as there are no cost-effective alternatives for the required emission reduction in the chemical industry or in steel production. Furthermore we illustrate that the German hydrogen supply in the year 2045 requires both an expansion of domestic electrolyzer capacity to 71 GWH2 and hydrogen imports from other European countries and Northern Africa of about 196 TWh. Moreover flexible operation of electrolyzers is cost-optimal and crucial for balancing the intermittent nature of volatile renewable energy sources. Additionally a conducted sensitivity analysis shows that full domestic hydrogen supply in Germany is possible but requires an electrolyzer capacity of 111 GWH2.
Natural Hydrogen in the Energy Transition: Fundamentals, Promise, and Enigmas
Oct 2023
Publication
Beyond its role as an energy vector a growing number of natural hydrogen sources and reservoirs are being discovered all over the globe which could represent a clean energy source. Although the hydrogen amounts in reservoirs are uncertain they could be vast and they could help decarbonize energy-intensive economic sectors and facilitate the energy transition. Natural hydrogen is mainly produced through a geochemical process known as serpentinization which involves the reaction of water with low-silica ferrous minerals. In favorable locations the hydrogen produced can become trapped by impermeable rocks on its way to the atmosphere forming a reservoir. The safe exploitation of numerous natural hydrogen reservoirs seems feasible with current technology and several demonstration plants are being commissioned. Natural hydrogen may show variable composition and require custom separation purification storage and distribution facilities depending on the location and intended use. By investing in research in the mid-term more hydrogen sources could become exploitable and geochemical processes could be artificially stimulated in new locations. In the long term it may be possible to leverage or engineer the interplay between microorganisms and geological substrates to obtain hydrogen and other chemicals in a sustainable manner.
Synergistic Integration of Hydrogen Energy Economy with UK’s Sustainable Development Goals: A Holistic Approach to Enhancing Safety and Risk Mitigation
Oct 2023
Publication
Hydrogen is gaining prominence as a sustainable energy source in the UK aligning with the country’s commitment to advancing sustainable development across diverse sectors. However a rigorous examination of the interplay between the hydrogen economy and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is imperative. This study addresses this imperative by comprehensively assessing the risks associated with hydrogen production storage transportation and utilization. The overarching aim is to establish a robust framework that ensures the secure deployment and operation of hydrogen-based technologies within the UK’s sustainable development trajectory. Considering the unique characteristics of the UK’s energy landscape infrastructure and policy framework this paper presents practical and viable recommendations to facilitate the safe and effective integration of hydrogen energy into the UK’s SDGs. To facilitate sophisticated decision making it proposes using an advanced Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) tool incorporating regret theory and a 2-tuple spherical linguistic environment. This tool enables a nuanced decision-making process yielding actionable insights. The analysis reveals that Incident Reporting and Learning Robust Regulatory Framework Safety Standards and Codes are pivotal safety factors. At the same time Clean Energy Access Climate Action and Industry Innovation and Infrastructure are identified as the most influential SDGs. This information provides valuable guidance for policymakers industry stakeholders and regulators. It empowers them to make well-informed strategic decisions and prioritize actions that bolster safety and sustainable development as the UK transitions towards a hydrogen-based energy system. Moreover the findings underscore the varying degrees of prominence among different SDGs. Notably SDG 13 (Climate Action) exhibits relatively lower overall distinction at 0.0066 and a Relation value of 0.0512 albeit with a substantial impact. In contrast SDG 7 (Clean Energy Access) and SDG 9 (Industry Innovation and Infrastructure) demonstrate moderate prominence levels (0.0559 and 0.0498 respectively) each with its unique influence emphasizing their critical roles in the UK’s pursuit of a sustainable hydrogen-based energy future.
Policy Design for Diffusing Hydrogen Economy and Its Impact on the Japanese Economy for Carbon Neutrality by 2050: Analysis Using the E3ME-FTT Model
Nov 2023
Publication
To achieve carbon neutrality in Japan by 2050 renewable energy needs to be used as the main energy source. Based on the constraints of various renewable energies the importance of hydrogen cannot be ignored. This study aimed to investigate the diffusion of hydrogen demand technologies in various sectors and used projections and assumptions to investigate the hydrogen supply side. By performing simulations with the E3ME-FTT model and comparing various policy scenarios with the reference scenario the economic and environmental impacts of the policy scenarios for hydrogen diffusion were analyzed. Moreover the impact of realizing carbon neutrality by 2050 on the Japanese economy was evaluated. Our results revealed that large-scale decarbonization via hydrogen diffusion is possible (90% decrease of CO2 emissions in 2050 compared to the reference) without the loss of economic activity. Additionally investments in new hydrogen-based and other low-carbon technologies in the power sector freight road transport and iron and steel industry can improve the gross domestic product (1.6% increase in 2050 compared to the reference) as they invoke economic activity and require additional employment (0.6% increase in 2050 compared to the reference). Most of the employment gains are related to decarbonizing the power sector and scaling up the hydrogen supply sector while a lot of job losses can be expected in the mining and fossil fuel industries.
Price Promises, Trust Deficits and Energy Justice: Public Perceptions of Hydrogen Homes
Oct 2023
Publication
In an era characterised by political instability economic uncertainty and mounting environmental pressures hydrogen fuel is being positioned as a critical piece of the global energy security and clean energy agenda. The policy push is noteworthy in the United Kingdom where the government is targeting industrial decarbonisation via hydrogen while exploring a potential role for hydrogen-fuelled home appliances. Despite the imperative to secure social acceptance for accelerating the diffusion of low-carbon energy technologies public perceptions of hydrogen homes remain largely underexplored by the researcher community. In response this analysis draws on extensive focus group data to understand the multi-dimensional nature of social acceptance in the context of the domestic hydrogen transition. Through an integrated mixed-methods multigroup analysis the study demonstrates that socio-political and market acceptance are strongly interlinked owing to a trust deficit in the government and energy industry coupled to underlying dissatisfaction with energy markets. At the community level hydrogen homes are perceived as a potentially positive mechanism for industrial regeneration and local economic development. Households consider short-term disruptive impacts to be tolerable provided temporary disconnection from the gas grid does not exceed three days. However to strengthen social acceptance clearer communication is needed regarding the spatial dynamics and equity implications of the transition. The analysis concludes that existing trust deficits will need to be overcome which entails fulfilling not only a ‘price promise’ on the cost of hydrogen appliances but also enacting a ‘price pledge’ on energy bills. These deliverables are fundamental to securing social acceptance for hydrogen homes.
Hydrogen Towards Sustainable Transition: A Review of Production, Economic, Environmental Impact and Scaling Factors
Sep 2023
Publication
Currently meeting the global energy demand is largely dependent on fossil fuels such as natural gas coal and oil. Fossil fuels represent a danger to the Earth’s environment and its biological systems. The utilisation of these fuels results in a rise in atmospheric CO2 levels which in turn triggers global warming and adverse changes in the climate. Furthermore these represent finite energy resources that will eventually deplete. There is a pressing need to identify and harness renewable energy sources as a replacement for fossil fuels in the near future. This shift is expected to have a minimal environmental impact and would contribute to ensuring energy security. Hydrogen is considered a highly desirable fuel option with the potential to substitute depleting hydrocarbon resources. This concise review explores diverse methods of renewable hydrogen production with a primary focus on solar wind geothermal and mainly water-splitting techniques such as electrolysis thermolysis photolysis and biomass-related processes. It addresses their limitations and key challenges hampering the global hydrogen economy’s growth including clean value chain creation storage transportation production costs standards and investment risks. The study concludes with research recommendations to enhance production efficiencies and policy suggestions for governments to mitigate investment risks while scaling up the hydrogen economy.
Heat Pumps for Germany—Additional Pressure on the Supply–Demand Equilibrium and How to Cope with Hydrogen
Jun 2024
Publication
In the context of the German Energiewende the current government intends to install six million heat pumps by 2030. Replacing gas heating by power has significant implications on the infrastructure. One of the biggest advantages of using gas is the existing storage portfolio. It has not been clarified yet how power demand should be structured on an annual level—especially since power storage is already a problem and solar power is widely promoted to fuel heat pumps despite having an inverse profile. In this article three different solutions namely hydrogen batteries and carbon capture and storage are discussed with respect to resources energy and financial demand. It shows that relying solely on batteries or hydrogen is not solving the structuring problem. A combination of all existing technologies (including fossil fuels) is required to structure the newly generated electricity demand
Identifying Social Aspect Related to the Hydrogen Economy: Review, Synthesis, and Research Perspectives
Oct 2023
Publication
Energy transition will reshape the power sector and hydrogen is a key energy carrier that could contribute to energy security. The inclusion of sustainability criteria is crucial for the adequate design/deployment of resilient hydrogen networks. While cost and environmental metrics are commonly included in hydrogen models social aspects are rarely considered. This paper aims to identify the social criteria related to the hydrogen economy by using a systematic hybrid literature review. The main contribution is the identification of twelve social aspects which are described ranked and discussed. “Accessibility” “Information” “H2 markets” and “Acceptability” are now emerging as the main themes of hydrogen-related social research. Identified gaps are e.g. lack of the definition of the value of H2 for society insufficient research for “socio-political” aspects (e.g. geopolitics wellbeing) scarce application of social lifecycle assessment and the low amount of works with a focus on social practices and cultural issues.
Future Energy Scenarios 2019
Jul 2019
Publication
Decarbonising energy is fundamental in the transition towards a sustainable future. Our Future Energy Scenarios aim to stimulate debate to inform the decisions that will help move us towards achieving carbon reduction targets and ultimately shape the energy system of the future.
Hydrogen Production, Storage, Utilisation and Environmental Impacts: A Review
Oct 2021
Publication
Dihydrogen (H2) commonly named ‘hydrogen’ is increasingly recognised as a clean and reliable energy vector for decarbonisation and defossilisation by various sectors. The global hydrogen demand is projected to increase from 70 million tonnes in 2019 to 120 million tonnes by 2024. Hydrogen development should also meet the seventh goal of ‘affordable and clean energy’ of the United Nations. Here we review hydrogen production and life cycle analysis hydrogen geological storage and hydrogen utilisation. Hydrogen is produced by water electrolysis steam methane reforming methane pyrolysis and coal gasification. We compare the environmental impact of hydrogen production routes by life cycle analysis. Hydrogen is used in power systems transportation hydrocarbon and ammonia production and metallugical industries. Overall combining electrolysis-generated hydrogen with hydrogen storage in underground porous media such as geological reservoirs and salt caverns is well suited for shifting excess of-peak energy to meet dispatchable on-peak demand.
Hydrogen in the Strategies of the European Union Member States
Jan 2021
Publication
Energy and environmental challenges are two key issues related to the sustainable development of the Earth. Fossil fuels (oil coal and natural gas) still supply more than 85% of world energy consumption. Several nations around the globe are striving to provide access to clean and sustainable energy by 2030 (Hostettler et al. 2015). When the Paris Agreement entered into force in 2016 many countries have recently announced serious commitments to significantly reduce their carbon dioxide emissions promising to achieve “net zero” by 2050. he main goal is to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels (IEA 2021). his requires a total transformation of the energy systems that underpin our economies. In the case of renewable energy technology deployment hydrogen may provide a complementary solution due to its flexibility as an energy carrier and storage medium. The European Union (EU) a signatory to the Paris Agreement demonstrated interest in hydrogen as an invaluable raw material in considerably reducing CO2 emissions. Hydrogen inthe EU energy mix is estimated to increase from the current level (less than 2%) to 13–14% in 2050 (EC 2018).
Fuelling the Transition Podcast: Using Hydrogen to Achieve Net-zero
Jan 2021
Publication
In order to achieve the EU’s target of 55% carbon reduction by 2030 hydrogen will have to make a key contribution to the energy mix. With many applications in industrial heat mobility power and chemical refineries hydrogen can be used to decarbonise where electrification is not possible. Equinor is a broad energy company with 21000 employees developing oil gas wind and solar energy in more than 30 countries worldwide. Equinor have been at the forefront of promoting hydrogen projects in Europe and developing low-carbon hydrogen solutions. In this episode Johan Leuraers Chief Consultant - Policy and Regulatory Affairs at Equinor and John Williams Head of Hydrogen Expertise Cluster at AFRY Management Consulting join us to discuss the main barriers to the uptake of hydrogen and the next steps to kick-start the hydrogen economy.
The podcast can be found on their website.
The podcast can be found on their website.
Decarbonisation of Heat and the Role of ‘Green Gas’ in the United Kingdom
May 2018
Publication
This paper looks at the possible role of ‘green gas’ in the decarbonisation of heat in the United Kingdom. The option is under active discussion at the moment because of the UK’s rigorous carbon reduction targets and the growing realisation that there are problems with the ‘default’ option of electrifying heat. Green gas appears to be technically and economically feasible. However as the paper discusses there are major practical and policy obstacles which make it unlikely that the government will commit itself to developing ‘green gas’ in the foreseeable future.
Future Energy Scenarios 2018
Jul 2018
Publication
Welcome to our Future Energy Scenarios. These scenarios which stimulate debate and help inform the decisions that will shape our energy future have never been more important – especially when you consider the extent to which the energy landscape is being transformed.
Can the Hydrogen Economy Concept be the Solution to the Future Energy Crisis?
Feb 2022
Publication
The Hydrogen Economy concept is being proposed as a means of reducing and eventually decarbonising the world’s energy use. It looks to hydrogen as being a replacement for methane (natural gas) and generally as a way of removing all fossil fuels from the energy supply. The concept however has at least four flaws as follows: (1) hydrogen has significantly different properties to methane; (2) hydrogen has properties that create significant hazards; (3) hydrogen has a very small initiation (activation) energy; and (4) liquid hydrogen cannot readily replace liquefied natural gas (LNG). Hydrogen’s hazards will prevent it from being accepted in a societal sense. To the question ‘Can the Hydrogen Economy concept be the solution to the future energy crisis?’ the answer is ‘no’. Hydrogen has and will have a role in world energy but that role will be limited to industry. For the future we need an advanced electric economy.
Hydrogen from Offshore Wind: Investor Perspective on the Profitability of a Hybrid System Including for Curtailment
Mar 2020
Publication
Accommodating renewables on the electricity grid may hinder development opportunities for offshore wind farms (OWFs) as they begin to experience significant curtailment or constraint. However there is potential to combine investment in OWFs with Power-to-Gas (PtG) converting electricity to hydrogen via electrolysis for an alternative/complementary revenue. Using historic wind speed and simulated system marginal costs data this work models the electricity generated and potential revenues of a 504 MW OWF. Three configurations are analysed; (1) all electricity is sold to the grid (2) all electricity is converted to hydrogen and sold and (3) a hybrid system where power is converted to hydrogen when curtailment occurs and/or when the system marginal cost is low with the effect of curtailment analysed in each scenario. These represent the status quo a potential future configuration and an innovative business model respectively. The willingness of an investor to build PtG are determined by changes to the net present value (NPV) of a project. Results suggest that configuration (1) is most profitable and that curtailment mitigation alone is not sufficient to secure investment in PtG. By acting as an artificial floor in the electricity price a hybrid configuration (3) is promising and increases NPV for all hydrogen values greater than €4.2/kgH2. Hybrid system attractiveness increases with curtailment only if the hydrogen value is significantly above the levelised cost of €3.77/kgH2. In order for an investor to choose to pursue configuration (2) the offshore wind farm would have to anticipate 8.5% curtailment and be able to receive €4.5/kgH2 or 25% curtailment and receive €4/kgH2. The capital costs and discount rates are the most sensitive parameters and ambitious combinations of technology improvements could produce a levelised cost of €3/kgH2.
Circular Economy for the Energy System as a Leverage for Low-carbon Transition: Long-Ter, Analysis of the Case of the South-East Region of France
Mar 2024
Publication
The circular economy is a decisive strategy for reconciling economic development and the environment. In France the CE was introduced into the law in 2015 with the objective of closing the loop. The legislation also delegates energy policy towards the French regions by granting them the jurisdiction to directly plan the energy–climate issues on their territory and to develop local energy resources. Thereby the SUD PACA region has redefined its objectives and targeted carbon neutrality and the transition to a CE by 2050. To study this transition we developed a TIMESPACA optimization model. The results show that following a CE perspective to develop a local energy system could contribute to reducing CO2 emissions by 50% in final energy consumption and reaching almost free electricity production. To obtain greater reductions the development of the regional energy systems should follow a careful policy design favoring the transition to low energy-consuming behavior and the strategical allocation of resources across the different sectors. Biomethane should be allocated to the buildings and industrial sector while hydrogen should be deployed for buses and freight transport vehicles.
The Role of Hydrogen and H2 Mobility on the Green Transition of Islands: The Case of Anafi (Greece)
Apr 2023
Publication
The holistic green energy transition of non-interconnected islands faces several challenges if all the energy sectors are included i.e. electricity heating/cooling and mobility. On the one hand the penetration of renewable energy systems (RES) is limited due to design restrictions with respect to the peak demand. On the other hand energy-intensive heating and mobility sectors pose significant challenges and may be difficult to electrify. The focus of this study is on implementing a hybrid Wind–PV system on the non-interconnected island of Anafi (Greece) that utilizes surplus renewable energy production for both building heating through heat pumps and hydrogen generation. This comprehensive study aims to achieve a holistic green transition by addressing all three main sectors—electricity heating and transportation. The produced hydrogen is utilized to address the energy needs of the mobility sector (H2 mobility) focusing primarily on public transportation vehicles (buses) and secondarily on private vehicles. The overall RES production was modeled to be 91724 MWh with a RES penetration of 84.68%. More than 40% of the produced electricity from RES was in the form of excess electricity that could be utilized for hydrogen generation. The modeled generated hydrogen was simulated to be more than 40 kg H2/day which could cover all four bus routes of the island and approximately 200 cars for moderate use i.e. traveled distances of less than 25 km/day for each vehicle.
Technical, Economic, Carbon Footprint Assessment, and Prioritizing Stations for Hydrogen Production Using Wind Energy: A Case Study
Jul 2021
Publication
While Afghanistan’s power sector is almost completely dependent on fossil fuels it still cannot meet the rising power demand of this country. Deploying a combination of renewable energy systems with hydrogen production as the excess energy storage mechanism could be a sustainable long-term approach for addressing some of the energy problems of Afghanistan. Since Badakhshan is known to have a higher average wind speed than any other Afghan province in this study a technical economic and carbon footprint assessment was performed to investigate the potential for wind power and hydrogen production in this province. Wind data of four stations in Badakhshan were used for technical assessment for three heights of 10 30 and 40 m using the Weibull probability distribution function. This technical assessment was expanded by estimating the energy pattern factor probability of wind speeds greater than 5 m/s wind power density annual power output and annual hydrogen output. This was followed by an economic assessment which involved computing the Leveled Cost Of Energy (LCOE) the Leveled Cost Of Hydrogen (LCOH) and the payback period and finally an carbon footprint assessment which involved estimating the consequent CO2 reduction in two scenarios. The assessments were performed for 22 turbines manufactured by reputable companies with capacities ranging from 600 kW to 2.3 MW. The results showed that the entire Badakhshan province and especially Qal’eh-ye Panjeh and Fayazabad have excellent potentials in terms of wind energy that can be harvested for wind power and hydrogen production. Also wind power generation in this province will be highly cost-effective as the produced electricity will cost about one-third of the price of electricity supplied by the government. For better evaluation the GIS maps of wind power and hydrogen outputs were prepared using the IDW method. These maps showed that the eastern and northeastern parts of Badakhshan province have higher wind power-hydrogen production potentials. The results of ranking the stations with SWARA-EDAS hybrid MCDM methods showed that Qal’eh-ye Panjeh station was the best location to produce hydrogen from wind energy.
Transition Analysis of Budgetary Allocation for Projects on Hydrogen-Related Technologies in Japan
Oct 2020
Publication
Hydrogen technologies are promising candidates of new energy technologies for electric power load smoothing. However regardless of long-term public investment hydrogen economy has not been realized. In Japan the National Research and Development Institute of New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) a public research-funding agency has invested more than 200 billion yen in the technical development of hydrogen-related technologies. However hydrogen technologies such as fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) have not been disseminated yet. Continuous and strategic research and development (R&D) are needed but there is a lack of expertise in this field. In this study the transition of the budgetary allocations by NEDO were analyzed by classifying NEDO projects along the hydrogen supply chain and research stage. We found a different R&D focus in different periods. From 2004 to 2007 empirical research on fuel cells increased with the majority of research focusing on standardization. From 2008 to 2011 investment in basic research of fuel cells increased again the research for verification of fuel cells continued and no allocation for research on hydrogen production was confirmed. Thereafter the investment trend did not change until around 2013 when practical application of household fuel cells (ENE-FARM) started selling in 2009 in terms of hydrogen supply chain. Hydrogen economy requires a different hydrogen supply infrastructure that is an existing infrastructure of city gas for ENE-FARM and a dedicated infrastructure for FCVs (e.g. hydrogen stations). We discussed the possibility that structural inertia could prevent the transition to investing more in hydrogen infrastructure from hydrogen utilization technology. This work has significant implications for designing national research projects to realize hydrogen economy.
Tourist Preferences for Fuel Cell Vehicle Rental: Going Green with Hydrogen on the Island of Tenerife
Mar 2023
Publication
Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) a survey of international tourists on the island of Tenerife is conducted to examine preferences for fuel cell vehicle (FCV) rental while on vacation. Survey respondents were generally supportive of FCVs and willing to hire one as part of their trip but for most individuals this is contingent on an adequate fuel station infrastructure. A latent class model was used to identify three distinct groups; one of which potentially represent early adopters e they have a high willingness-to-pay (WTP) for green hydrogen and are more likely to accept a low number of fuel stations but it could be challenging to convince them to use FCVs if they are not run on green hydrogen.
Energy System Changes in 1.5 °C, Well Below 2 °C and 2 °C Scenarios
Dec 2018
Publication
Meeting the Paris Agreement's goal to limit global warming to well below 2 °C and pursuing efforts towards 1.5 °C is likely to require more rapid and fundamental energy system changes than the previously-agreed 2 °C target. Here we assess over 200 integrated assessment model scenarios which achieve 2 °C and well-below 2 °C targets drawn from the IPCC's fifth assessment report database combined with a set of 1.5 °C scenarios produced in recent years. We specifically assess differences in a range of near-term indicators describing CO2 emissions reductions pathways changes in primary energy and final energy across the economy's major sectors in addition to more detailed metrics around the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) negative emissions low-carbon electricity and hydrogen.
Decarbonization of Former Lignite Regions with Renewable Hydrogen: The Western Macedonia Case
Oct 2023
Publication
For lignite intense regions such as the case of Western Macedonia (WM) the production and utilization of green hydrogen is one of the most viable ways to achieve near zero emissions in sectors like transport chemicals heat and energy production synthetic fuels etc. However the implementation of each technology that is available to a respective sector differs significantly in terms of readiness and the current installation scale of each technology. The goal of this study is the provision of a transition roadmap for a decarbonized future for the WM region through utilizing green hydrogen. The technologies which can take part in this transition are presented along with the implementation purpose of each technology and the reasonable extension that each technology could be adopted in the present context. The WM region’s limited capacity for green hydrogen production leads to certain integration scenarios with regards to the required hydrogen electrolyzer capacities and required power whereas an environmental assessment is also presented for each scenario.
Future Energy Scenarios 2020
Jul 2020
Publication
Our Future Energy Scenarios (FES) outline four different credible pathways for the future of energy over the next 30 years. Based on input from over 600 experts the report looks at the energy needed in Britain across electricity and gas - examining where it could come from how it needs to change and what this means for consumers society and the energy system itself.
Opportunities for Production and Utilization of Green Hydrogen in the Philippines
Jun 2021
Publication
The Philippines is exploring different alternative sources of energy to become energy-independent while significantly reducing the country’s greenhouse gas emissions. Green hydrogen from renewable energy is one of the most sustainable alternatives with its application as an energy carrier and as a source of clean and sustainable energy as well as raw material for various industrial processes. As a preliminary study in the country this paper aims to explore different production and utilization routes for a green hydrogen economy in the Philippines. Production from electrolysis includes various available renewable sources consisting of geothermal hydropower wind solar and biomass as well as ocean technology and nuclear energy when they become available in the future. Different utilization routes include the application of green hydrogen in the transportation power generation industry and utility sectors. The results of this study can be incorporated in the development of the pathways for hydrogen economy in the Philippines and can be applied in other emerging economies.
Analysis of the Levelized Cost of Renewable Hydrogen in Austria
Mar 2023
Publication
Austria is committed to the net-zero climate goal along with the European Union. This requires all sectors to be decarbonized. Hereby hydrogen plays a vital role as stated in the national hydrogen strategy. A report commissioned by the Austrian government predicts a minimum hydrogen demand of 16 TWh per year in Austria in 2040. Besides hydrogen imports domestic production can ensure supply. Hence this study analyses the levelized cost of hydrogen for an off-grid production plant including a proton exchange membrane electrolyzer wind power and solar photovoltaics in Austria. In the first step the capacity factors of the renewable electricity sources are determined by conducting a geographic information system analysis. Secondly the levelized cost of electricity for wind power and solarphotovoltaics plants in Austria is calculated. Thirdly the most cost-efficient portfolio of wind power and solar photovoltaics plants is determined using electricity generation profiles with a 10-min granularity. The modelled system variants differ among location capacity factors of the renewable electricity sources and the full load hours of the electrolyzer. Finally selected variables are tested for their sensitivities. With the applied model the hydrogen production cost for decentralized production plants can be calculated for any specific location. The levelized cost of hydrogen estimates range from 3.08 EUR/kg to 13.12 EUR/kg of hydrogen whereas it was found that the costs are most sensitive to the capacity factors of the renewable electricity sources and the full load hours of the electrolyzer. The novelty of the paper stems from the model applied that calculates the levelized cost of renewable hydrogen in an off-grid hydrogen production system. The model finds a cost-efficient portfolio of directly coupled wind power and solar photovoltaics systems for 80 different variants in an Austria-specific context.
Fuelling the Transition Podcast: Building the UK Hydrogen Backbone
Feb 2022
Publication
In this episode Tony Green Hydrogen Director at National Grid and John Williams Head of Hydrogen Expertise Cluster at AFRYManagement Consulting join us to discuss the challenges in implementing hydrogen. Tony is involved in two exciting hydrogen projects: FutureGrid andProject Union. FutureGrid involves building a facility to create a representative whole-network to trial hydrogen. Project Union will develop a UK hydrogen ‘backbone’ joining together clusters around the country potentially creating a 2000km hydrogen network.
In addition to discussing these projects this episode will explore the following issues:
♦ Managing the transition and challenges in repurposing natural gas pipelines to hydrogen
♦ The potential for blending and de-blending hydrogen
♦ The impact of hydrogen on National Grid’s regulatory approach
♦ How to take the first steps towards a hydrogen wholesale market"
The podcast can be found on their website.
In addition to discussing these projects this episode will explore the following issues:
♦ Managing the transition and challenges in repurposing natural gas pipelines to hydrogen
♦ The potential for blending and de-blending hydrogen
♦ The impact of hydrogen on National Grid’s regulatory approach
♦ How to take the first steps towards a hydrogen wholesale market"
The podcast can be found on their website.
Life Cycle Assessments Use in Hydrogen-related Policies: The Case for a Harmonized Methodology Addressing Multifunctionality
May 2024
Publication
Legislation regulating the sustainability requirements for hydrogen technologies relies more and more on life cycle assessments (LCAs). Due to different scopes and development processes different pieces of EU legislation refer to different LCA methodologies with differences in the way multifunctional processes (i.e. co-productions recycling and energy recovery) are treated. These inconsistencies arise because incentive mechanisms are not standardized across sectors even though the end product hydrogen remains the same. The goal of this paper is to compare the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of hydrogen from four production pathways depending on the multifunctional approach prescribed by the different EU policies (e.g. using substitution or allocation). The study reveals a large variation in the LCA results. For instance the life-cycle GHG emissions of hydrogen co-produced with methanol is found to vary from 1 kg CO2-equivalent/kg H2 (when mass allocation is considered) to 11 kg CO2-equivalent/kg H2 (when economic allocation is used). These inconsistencies could affect the market (e.g. hydrogen from a certain pathway could be considered sustainable or unsustainable depending on the approach) and the environment (e.g. pathways that do not lead to a global emission reduction could be promoted). To mitigate these potential negative effects we urge for harmonized and strict guidelines to assess the life-cycle GHG emissions of hydrogen technologies in an EU policy context. Harmonization should cover international policies too to avoid the same risks when hydrogen will be traded based on its GHG emissions. The appropriate methodological approach for each production pathway should be chosen by policymakers in collaboration with the LCA community and stakeholders from the industry based on the potential market and environmental consequences of such choice.
Positioning Germany in an International Hydrogen Economy: A Policy Review
Apr 2024
Publication
Germany the European Union member state with the largest fiscal space and its leading manufacturer of industrial goods is pursuing an ambitious hydrogen strategy aiming at establishing itself as a major technology provider and importer of green hydrogen. The success of its hydrogen strategy represents not only a key element in realizing the European vision of climate neutrality but also a central driver of an emerging global hydrogen economy. This article provides a detailed review of German policy highlighting its prominent international dimension and its implications for the development of a global renewable hydrogen economy. It provides an overview of the strategy’s central goals and how these have evolved since the launch of the strategy in 2020. Next it moves on to provide an overview of the strategy’s main areas of intervention and highlights corresponding policy instruments. For this we draw on a comprehensive assessment of hydrogen policy instruments which have been systematically analyzed and coded. This was complemented by a detailed analysis of policy documents and information gathered in six interviews with government officials and staff of key implementing agencies. The article places particular emphasis on the strategy’s international dimension. While less significant in financial terms than domestic hydrogen-related spending it represents a defining feature of the German hydrogen strategy setting it apart from strategies in other major economies. The article closes with a reflection on the key features of the strategy compared to other important countries identifies gaps of the strategy and discusses important avenues for future research.
Monitored Data and Social Perceptions Analysis of Battery Electric and Hydrogen Fuelled Buses in Urban and Suburban Areas
Jul 2023
Publication
Electrification of the transportation sector is one of the main drivers in the decarbonization of energy and mobility systems and it is a way to ensure security of energy supply. Public bus fleets can assist in achieving fast reduction of CO2 emissions. This article provides an analysis of a unique real-world dataset to support decision makers in the decarbonization of public fleets and interlink it with the social acceptance of drivers. Data was collected from 21 fuel cell and electric buses. The tank-to-wheel efficiency results of fuel cell electric buses (FCEB) are much lower than that of battery electric buses (BEB) and there is a higher variation in consumption for BEBs compared to FCEBs. Both technologies permit a strong reduction in CO2 emissions compared to conventional buses. There is a high level of acceptance of drivers which are likely to support the transition towards zero-emission buses introduced by the management.
Global Hydrogen Review 2023
Sep 2023
Publication
The Global Hydrogen Review is an annual publication by the International Energy Agency that tracks hydrogen production and demand worldwide as well as progress in critical areas such as infrastructure development trade policy regulation investments and innovation. The report is an output of the Clean Energy Ministerial Hydrogen Initiative and is intended to inform energy sector stakeholders on the status and future prospects of hydrogen while also informing discussions at the Hydrogen Energy Ministerial Meeting organised by Japan. Focusing on hydrogen’s potentially major role in meeting international energy and climate goals the Review aims to help decision makers fine-tune strategies to attract investment and facilitate deployment of hydrogen technologies at the same time as creating demand for hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels. It compares real-world developments with the stated ambitions of government and industry. This year’s report includes a focus on demand creation for low-emission hydrogen. Global hydrogen use is increasing but demand remains so far concentrated in traditional uses in refining and the chemical industry and mostly met by hydrogen produced from unabated fossil fuels. To meet climate ambitions there is an urgent need to switch hydrogen use in existing applications to low-emission hydrogen and to expand use to new applications in heavy industry or long-distance transport.
Future Green Energy: A Global Analysis
Jun 2024
Publication
The main problem confronting the world is human-caused climate change which is intrinsically linked to the need for energy both now and in the future. Renewable (green) energy has been proposed as a future solution and many renewable energy technologies have been developed for different purposes. However progress toward net zero carbon emissions by 2050 and the role of renewable energy in 2050 are not well known. This paper reviews different renewable energy technologies developed by different researchers and their potential and challenges to date and it derives lessons for world and especially African policymakers. According to recent research results the mean global capabilities for solar wind biogas geothermal hydrogen and ocean power are 325 W 900 W 300 W 434 W 150 W and 2.75 MWh respectively and their capacities for generating electricity are 1.5 KWh 1182.5 KWh 1.7 KWh 1.5 KWh 1.55 KWh and 3.6 MWh respectively. Securing global energy leads to strong hope for meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) such as those for hunger health education gender equality climate change and sustainable development. Therefore renewable energy can be a considerable contributor to future fuels.
Supply and Demand Drivers of Global Hydrogen Deployment in the Transition Toward a Decarbonized Energy System
Nov 2023
Publication
The role of hydrogen in energy system decarbonization is being actively examined by the research and policy communities. We evaluate the potential “hydrogen economy” in global climate change mitigation scenarios using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We consider major hydrogen production methods in conjunction with delivery options to understand how hydrogen infrastructure affects its deployment. We also consider a rich set of hydrogen end-use technologies and vary their costs to understand how demand technologies affect deployment. We find that the availability of hydrogen transmission and distribution infrastructure primarily affects the hydrogen production mix particularly the share produced centrally versus on-site whereas assumptions about end-use technology primarily affect the scale of hydrogen deployment. In effect hydrogen can be a source of distributed energy enabled by on-site renewable electrolysis and to a lesser extent by on-site production at industrial facilities using natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS). While the share of hydrogen in final energy is small relative to the share of other major energy carriers in our scenarios hydrogen enables decarbonization in difficult-to-electrify end uses such as industrial high-temperature heat. Hydrogen deployment and in turn its contribution to greenhouse gas mitigation increases as the climate objective is tightened.
Hydrogen as a Transition Tool in a Fossil Fuel Resource Region: Taking China’s Coal Capital Shanxi as an Example
Aug 2023
Publication
Because of the pressure to meet carbon neutrality targets carbon reduction has become a challenge for fossil fuel resource-based regions. Even though China has become the most active country in carbon reduction its extensive energy supply and security demand make it difficult to turn away from its dependence on coal-based fossil energy. This paper analyzes the Chinese coal capital—Shanxi Province—to determine whether the green low-carbon energy transition should be focused on coal resource areas. In these locations the selection and effect of transition tools are key to ensuring that China meets its carbon reduction goal. Due to the time window of clean coal utilization the pressure of local governments and the survival demands of local high energy consuming enterprises Shanxi Province chose hydrogen as its important transition tool. A path for developing hydrogen resources has been established through lobbying and corporative influence on local and provincial governments. Based on such policy guidance Shanxi has realized hydrogen applications in large-scale industrial parks regional public transport and the iron and steel industry. This paper distinguishes between the development strategies of gray and green hydrogen. It shows that hydrogen can be an effective development model for resource-based regions as it balances economic stability and energy transition.
Towards Green Hydrogen? - A Comparison of German and African Visions and Expectations in the Context of the H2Atlas-Africa Project
Sep 2023
Publication
Green hydrogen promises to be critical in achieving a sustainable and renewable energy transition. As green hydrogen is produced with renewables green hydrogen could become an energy storage medium of the future and even substitute the current unsustainable grey or blue hydrogen used in the industry. Bringing this transition into reality for instance in Germany there are visions to rapidly build hydrogen facilities in Africa and export the produced green hydrogen to Europe. One problem however is that these visions presumably conflict with the visions of actors within Africa. Therefore this study aims to provide an initial assessment of African stakeholders’ visions for future energy exports and renewable energy expectations. By comparing visions from Germany and Africa this assessment was conducted to identify differences in green energy and hydrogen visions that could lead to conflict and similarities that could be the basis for cooperation. The National Hydrogen Strategy outlines the German visions which clarifies that Germany will have to import green hydrogen to meet its green transition target. In this context of future energy export demand a partnership between German and African researchers on assessing green hydrogen potentials in Africa started. The African visions were explored by surveying the partners from different African countries working on the project. The results revealed that while both sides see the need for an immediate transition to renewable energy the African side is not envisioning the immediate export of green hydrogen. Based on the responses the partners are primarily concerned with improving the continent’s still deficient energy access for both the population and industry. Nevertheless this African perspective greatly emphasises cross-border cooperation where both sides can realise their visions. In the case of Germany that German investment could build infrastructure which would benefit the receiving African country or countries and open up the possibility for the envisioned green hydrogen export to Europe.
Parameterization Proposal to Determine the Feasibility of Geographic Areas for the Green Hydrogen Industry under Socio-environmental and Technical Constraints in Chile
Oct 2023
Publication
Chile abundant in solar and wind energy resources presents significant potential for the production of green hydrogen a promising renewable energy vector. However realizing this potential requires an understanding of the most suitable locations for the installation of green hydrogen industries. This study proposes a quantitative methodology that identifies and ranks potential public lands for industrial use based on a range of technical parameters (such as solar and wind availability) and socio-environmental considerations (including land use restrictions and population density). The results reveal optimal locations that can facilitate informed sustainable decision-making for large-scale green hydrogen implementation in Chile. While this methodology does not replace project-specific technical or environmental impact studies it provides a flexible general classification to guide initial site selection. Notably this approach can be applied to other regions worldwide with abundant solar and wind resources such as Australia and Northern Africa promoting more effective and sustainable global decision-making for green hydrogen production.
Renewable Fuel Production and the Impact of Hydrogen Infrastructure - A Case Study of the Nordics
Apr 2024
Publication
Hard-to-electrify sectors will require renewable fuels to facilitate the green transition in the future. Therefore it is crucial to identify promising production locations while taking into account the local biomass resources variable renewable energy sources and the synergies between sectors. In this study investments and dispatch operations are optimised of a large catalogue of renewable fuel production technologies in the open-source software SpineOpt and this is soft-linked to the comprehensive energy system model Balmorel. We analyse future production pathways by comparing various levels of hydrogen infrastructure including large-scale hydrogen storage and assess system impacts. The results indicate that methanol may provide synergies in its multipurpose use as an early (2030–2040) shipping fuel and later as an aviation fuel through further refining if ammonia becomes more competitive (2050). We furthermore show that a hydrogen infrastructure increases the competitiveness of non-flexible hydrogen-based fuel production technologies. Offshore electrolysis hubs decrease energy system impacts in scenarios with 105 TWh of Nordic hydrogen export. However hydrogen export scenarios are much costlier compared to scenarios with no export unless a high hydrogen price is received. Finally we find that emission taxes in the range of 250–265 e/tCO2 will be necessary for renewable fuels to become competitive.
The European Hydrogen Policy Landscape
Apr 2024
Publication
This report aims to summarise the status of the European hydrogen policies and standards landscape. It is based on the information available at the European Hydrogen Observatory (EHO) platform the leading source of data and information on hydrogen in Europe (EU27 EFTA and the UK) providing an overview of the European and national policies legislations strategies and codes and standards which impact the deployment of hydrogen technologies and infrastructures. The EHO database covers a total of 29 EU policies and legislations that directly or indirectly affect the development and deployment of hydrogen technologies. To achieve its net zero ambitions the EU started with cross-cutting strategies such as the EU Green Deal and the EU Hydrogen Strategy setting forward roadmaps and targets that are to be achieved in the near future. As a next step the EU has developed legislations such as those bundled in the Fit for 55 package to meet the targets they have put forward. The implemented legislations including funding vehicles and initiatives have an impact on the whole value chain of hydrogen including production transport storage and distribution and end-uses. At national level as of July 2023 63% of the European countries have successfully published their national strategies in the hydrogen sector while 6% of the countries are currently in the draft stage. Several European countries have strategically incorporated quantitative indicators within their national strategies outlining their targets and estimates across the hydrogen value chain. This deliberate approach reflects a commitment to providing clear and measurable goals within their hydrogen strategies. A target often used in the national strategies is on electrolyser capacity as an effort to enhance the domestic renewable hydrogen production. Germany took the lead with an ambitious goal of achieving 10 GW by 2030 followed by France (6.5 GW) and Denmark (4 - 6 GW). Other targets that some of the countries use in their strategies are on the number of hydrogen refuelling stations fuel cell electric vehicles and total (renewable) hydrogen demand. A few countries also have targets on renewable hydrogen uptake in industry and hydrogen injection limit in the transmission grid. To monitor the policies and legislation that are adopted on a national level across the hydrogen value chain a survey was launched with national experts which was validated by Hydrogen Europe. In total 28 European countries have participated to the survey. On production the survey revealed that 61% of country specialists report that their country provides support for capital expenditure (CAPEX) in the development of renewable or low-carbon hydrogen production plants. Moreover 7 countries also provide support for operational expenditure (OPEX). Furthermore 8 countries have instituted official 6 permitting guidelines for hydrogen production projects while 5 countries have enacted a legal act or established an agency serving as a single point of contact for hydrogen project developers. For transmission only two countries reported to provide support schemes for hydrogen injection. Several countries have policies in place that clearly define the hydrogen limit in their transmission grid for now and in the future ranging from 0.02% up to 15% while a few countries define within their policies the operation of hydrogen storage facilities. On end-use the majority of countries totalling 71% reported to have implemented support schemes aimed at promoting the adoption of hydrogen in the mobility sector. Purchase subsidies stand out as the predominant form of support for fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) with implementation observed in 17 countries. In the context of support schemes for stationary fuel applications for heating or power generation only two countries have adopted such measures. A slightly larger group of four countries do provide support for the deployment of residential and commercial heating systems utilizing hydrogen. For hydrogen end-use in industry a total of 9 countries reported to provide support schemes with a major focus on ammonia production (8) and the chemicals industry (7). On the topic of technology manufacturing 7 countries have reported to have support schemes of which grants emerge as the mainly used method (4). Exploring the latest advancements into European codes and standards relevant to the deployment of hydrogen technologies and infrastructures a total of 11 standards have been revised and developed between January 2022 and September 2023. This includes standards covering the following areas: 6 for fuel cell technologies 2 for gas cylinders 2 for road vehicles and 1 for hydrogen refuelling. Moreover 5 standards were published since September 2023 which will be added to the EHO database in its next update. This includes ISO/TS 19870:2023 which sets a methodology for determining the greenhouse gas emissions associated with the production conditioning and transport of hydrogen to consumption gate. This landmark standard which was unveiled at COP28 aims to act as a foundation for harmonization safety interoperability and sustainability across the hydrogen value chain.
2022 Standards Report
Feb 2022
Publication
Purpose: The standards module of the FCHO (https://www.fchobservatory.eu/observatory/Policyand-RCS/Standards) presents a large number of standards relevant for the deployment of hydrogen and fuel cells. The standards are categorized per application enhancing ease of access and findability. The development of sector-relevant standards facilitate and enhance economies of scale interoperability comparability safety and many other issues. Scope: This report presents the developments in European and international standards for the year 2021 and the start of 2022. Standards from the following standards developing organizations are included: CEN CENELEC ISO IEC OIML. Key Findings: The development of sector relevant standards on an international level continued to grow in 2022; on a European level many standards are still in the process of being drafted. In 2021 & 2022 11 new standards have been published on the subject of fuel cell technologies and safety and measurement protocols of hydrogen technologies. The recently established committee CEN-CLC JTC 6 (Hydrogen in energy systems) has not published standards yet but is working on drafting standards on for example Guarantees of Origin. In the upcoming years multiple standards will be replaced such as the ISO 12619 1-12 set of standards affecting 40% of all collected standards. Previous Reports: The first report was published in September 2020 followed up by a second report in 2021. This report is the 3 rd Annual report.
2022 EU and National Policies Report
Mar 2022
Publication
Purpose: The policy module of the FCHO presents an overview of EU and national policies across various hydrogen and fuel cell related sectors. It provides a snapshot of the current state of hydrogen legislation and policy. Scope: This report covers 34 entities and it reflects data collected January 2022 – February 2022. Key Findings: Hydrogen policies are relatively commonplace among European countries but with large differences between member states. Mobility policies for FCEVs are the most common policy types. EU hydrogen leaders do not lag behind global outliers such as South Korea or Japan.
Future Energy Scenarios 2022
Jul 2022
Publication
Future Energy Scenarios (FES) represent a range of different credible ways to decarbonise our energy system as we strive towards the 2050 target.<br/>We’re less than 30 years away from the Net Zero deadline which isn’t long when you consider investment cycles for gas networks electricity transmission lines and domestic heating systems.<br/>FES has an important role to play in stimulating debate and helping to shape the energy system of the future.
Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Observatory Report: Technology and Market
Mar 2022
Publication
The information in this report covers the period January 2021 – December 2021. The technology and market module of the FCHO presents a range of statistical data as an indicator of the health of the sector and the progress in market development over time. This includes statistical information on the size of the global fuel cell market including number and capacity of fuel cell systems shipped in a calendar year. For this edition data to the end of 2021 is presented where possible alongside analysis of key sector developments. Fuel cell system shipments for each calendar year are presented both as numbers of units and total system megawatts. The data are further divided and subdivided by: Application: Total system shipments are divided into Transport Stationary and Portable applications Fuel cell type: Numbers are provided for each of the different fuel cell chemistry types Region of integration: Region where the final manufacturer – usually the system integrator – integrates the fuel cell into the final product Region of deployment: Region where the final product was shipped to for deployment The data is sourced directly from industry players as well as other relevant sources including press releases associations and other industry bodies. This year the report also includes data relating to electrolysers commissioned within Europe. Information is presented on the number of hydrogen refuelling stations (HRS) deployed since 2014 with detailed information on HRS in operation including pressure capacity etc. In parallel the observatory provides data on the registered fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) on European roads providing an indication of the speed of adoption of hydrogen in the transport sector. This annual report is an enrichment analysis of the data available on the FCHO providing global context and insights on trends observed year-over-year. Electrolyser systems commissioned for each calendar year within Europe are presented as both the number of units and the total system power rating in megawatts (MW). The data is further divided by: Number of Electrolyser Units Commissioned: The number of units brought online each year in Europe from 2000 until 2021. Application: Total systems commissioned are divided in Transport Fuel Industry Feedstock Steel Making Industrial Heat Power Generation Export Grid Injection and Sector Coupling. Electrolyser Type: Number for each of the different electrolyser types commissioned are provided. Region of deployment: Region where the electrolyser was commissioned. All sections in the Technology & Market module are updated following an annual data collection and validation cycle and the annual report is published the following Spring.
Analysis of the European Strategy for Hydrogen: A Comprehensive Review
May 2023
Publication
This review focuses on analysing the strategy and aspirations of the European Union within the hydrogen sector. This aim is achieved through the examination of the European Parliament’s hydrogen strategy allowing for a study of actions and projects in hydrogen technologies. The Parliament’s hydrogen strategy is the document that provides the guideline of how the EU intends to function in the hydrogen sector and manages to cover a wide range of topics all of them significant to represent the entirety of the hydrogen sector. It touches on subjects such as hydrogen demand infrastructure research and standards among others. The review discusses also the aspect that the EU intends to be a leader in the hydrogen sector including the large-scale industrialization of key elements such as electrolysers and this purpose is corroborated by the large number of associations strategies plans and projects that are being established and developed by the European Union. The most important conclusions to learn from this analysis are that hydrogen has many of the right characteristics to make it the key to decarbonisation especially in hard-to-abate sectors and that it is bound to be one of the main actors in the imminent green transition. Moreover hydrogen seems to be having its breakthrough and this field’s development can have benefits not only from an environmental perspective but also from an economical one enabling the way into the green transition and the fight against climate change.
The European Hydrogen Market Landscape
Nov 2023
Publication
This report aims to summarise the status of the European hydrogen market landscape. It is based on the information available at the European Hydrogen Observatory (EHO) platform the leading source of data and information on hydrogen in Europe (EU27 EFTA and the UK) providing a full overview of the hydrogen market and the deployment of clean hydrogen technologies. As of the end of 2022 a total of 476 operational hydrogen production facilities across Europe boasting a cumulative hydrogen production capacity of approximately 11.30 Mt were identified. Notably the largest share of this capacity is contributed by key European countries including Germany the Netherlands Poland Italy and France which collectively account for 56% of the total hydrogen capacity. The hydrogen consumption in Europe has been estimated at approximately 8.23 Mt reflecting an average capacity utilisation rate of 73%. It's worth highlighting that conventional hydrogen production methods encompassing reforming by-product production from ethylene and styrene and by-product electrolysis collectively yield 11.28 Mt of hydrogen capacity. These conventional processes are distributed across 376 production facilities constituting 99.9% of the total production capacity in 2022. Throughout the year 2022 there were no newly commissioned hydrogen production facilities that integrated carbon capture technology into their operations. Additionally a notable presence of water electrolysis-based hydrogen production projects in Europe was identified. There was a total of 97 water electrolysis projects with 67 of them having a minimum capacity of 0.5 MW resulting in a cumulative production capacity of 174.28 MW. Furthermore 46 such projects were found to be under construction and are anticipated to contribute an additional 1199.07 MW of water electrolysis capacity upon becoming operational with the estimated timeframe ranging from January 2023 to 2025. A significant 87% of the total hydrogen production capacity in Europe is dedicated to onsite captive consumption indicating that it is primarily produced and used within the facility. The remaining 13% of capacity is specifically allocated for external distribution and sale characterizing what's known as merchant consumption. Despite the prevailing dominance of captive hydrogen production within Europe it's noteworthy that thousands of metric tonnes of hydrogen are already being traded and distributed across the continent. These transfers often occur through dedicated hydrogen pipelines or transportation via trucks. In 2022 an example of this growing trend was the hydrogen export from Belgium to the Netherlands which emerged as the single most significant hydrogen flow between European countries constituting a substantial 75% of all hydrogen traded in Europe. Belgium earned distinction as Europe's leading hydrogen exporter with 78% of the hydrogen that flowed between European countries originating 6 from its facilities. Conversely the Netherlands played a pivotal role as Europe's primary hydrogen importer accounting for an impressive 76% of the hydrogen imported into the continent. The rise of the clean hydrogen market in Europe coupled with the European Union's ambition to import 10 Mt of renewable hydrogen from non-EU sources by 2030 is expected to drive an increase in hydrogen flows both exports and imports among European countries. In 2022 the total demand for hydrogen in Europe was estimated to be 8.19 Mt. The biggest share of hydrogen demand comes from refineries which were responsible for 57% of total hydrogen use (4.6 Mt) followed by the ammonia industry with 24% (2.0 Mt). Together these two sectors consumed 81% of the total hydrogen consumption in Europe. Clean hydrogen demand while currently making up less than 0.1% of the overall hydrogen demand is notably driven by the mobility sector. Forecasts project an impressive growth trajectory in total hydrogen demand for Europe over the coming decades. Projections show a remarkable 127% surge from 2030 to 2040 followed by a substantial 63% increase from 2040 to 2050. Considering the current hydrogen demand there is a projected 51% increase until 2030. Throughout the three decades under examination the industrial sector is anticipated to maintain its predominant position consistently demonstrating the highest demand for hydrogen. However this conclusion refers to average values and variations that may exist. The total number of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV) registrations in Europe in 2022 was estimated at 1537 units. In comparison to the previous year the number of registrations increased by 31%. This surge in registrations has had a pronounced impact on the overall FCEV fleet's evolution in Europe which increased from 4050 units to 5570 (+38%). Notably passenger cars dominated the landscape constituting 86% of the total FCEV fleet. Exploring the latest advancements in hydrogen infrastructure across Europe in 2022 the hydrogen distribution network comprised spanning a total length of 1569 km. Within Europe the largest networks are situated in Belgium and Germany at 600 km and 400 km respectively. Of particular importance is the cross-border network of France Belgium and the Netherlands spanning a total of 964 km. To keep pace with the rising number of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) on European roads and promote their wider integration it is key to ensure sufficient accessibility to refuelling infrastructure. Consequently many countries are endorsing the establishment of hydrogen refuelling stations (HRS) so that they are publicly accessible on a nationwide scale. More recharging and refuelling stations for alternative fuels will be deployed in the coming years across Europe enabling the transport sector to significantly reduce its carbon footprint following the adoption of the alternative fuel infrastructure regulation (AFIR). Part of the regulation's main target is that hydrogen refuelling stations serving both cars and lorries must be deployed from 7 2030 onwards in all urban nodes and every 200 km along the TEN-T core network. Since 2015 the total number of operational and publicly accessible HRS in Europe has grown at an accelerated pace from 38 to 178 by the summer of 2023. Germany takes the lead having the largest share at approximately 54% of the total number of HRS with 96 stations currently operational. The majority of the HRS (89%) are equipped with 700 bar car dispensers. In 2022 the levelized production costs of hydrogen generated through Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in Europe averaged approximately 6.23 €/kg H2. When incorporating a carbon capture system the average cost of hydrogen production via SMR in Europe increased to 6.38 €/kg H2. Additionally the production costs of hydrogen in Europe for 2022 utilizing grid electricity averaged 9.85 €/kg H2. Hydrogen production costs through electrolysis with a direct connection to a renewable energy source had an average estimated cost of 6.86 €/kg. As of May 2023 Europe's operational water electrolyser manufacturing capacity stands at 3.11 GW/year with an additional 2.64 GW planned by the end of 2023. Alkaline technologies make up 53% of the total capacity. Looking ahead to 2025 ongoing projects are expected to raise the total capacity to 7.65 GW/year. Fuel cell deployment in Europe has showed an increasing trend over the past decade. The total number of shipped fuel cells were forecasted on around 11200 units in 2021 and a total capacity of 190 MW. The most significant increase in capacity occurred between 2018 and the forecast of 2021 (+148.8 MW).
Investment Estimation in the Energy and Power Sector towards Carbon Neutrality Target: A Case Study of China
Mar 2023
Publication
The transition towards low-carbon energy and power has been extensively studied by research institutions and scholars. However the investment demand during the transition process has received insufficient attention. To address this gap an energy investment estimation method is proposed in this paper which takes the unit construction costs and potential development of major technology in the energy and power sector as input. The proposed estimation method can comprehensively assess the investment demand for various energy sources in different years including coal oil natural gas biomass power and hydrogen energy. Specifically we applied this method to estimate the investment demand of China’s energy and power sector from 2020 to 2060 at five year intervals. The results indicate that China’s cumulative energy investment demand over this period is approximately 127 trillion CNY with the power sector accounting for the largest proportion at 92.35% or approximately 117 trillion CNY. The calculated cumulative investment demand is consistent with the findings of several influential research institutions providing validation for the proposed method.
2021 Hydrogen Supply and Demand
Sep 2021
Publication
Purpose: The purpose of the hydrogen supply and demand data stream is to track changes in the structure of hydrogen supply capacity and demand in Europe. This report is mainly focused on presenting the current landscape that will allow for future year-on-year comparisons to assess the progress Europe is making with regards to deployment of clean hydrogen production capacity as well as development of demand for clean hydrogen from emerging new hydrogen applications in industry or mobility sectors. Scope: The following report contains data about hydrogen production capacity and consumption in EU countries together with Switzerland Norway Iceland and the United Kingdom. Hydrogen production capacity is presented by country and by production technology whereas the hydrogen consumption data is presented by country and by end-use sector. The analysis undertaken for this report was completed using data reflecting end of 2019. Key Findings: The current hydrogen market (on both the demand and supply side) is dominated by ammonia and refining industries with three countries (DE NL PL) responsible for almost half of hydrogen consumption. Hydrogen is overwhelmingly produced by reforming of fossil fuels (mostly natural gas). Clean hydrogen production capacities are currently insignificant with hydrogen produced from natural gas coupled with carbon capture at 0.5% and hydrogen produced from water electrolysis at 0.14% of total production capacity.
Future Energy Scenarios 2021
Jul 2022
Publication
Our Future Energy Scenarios (FES) draw on hundreds of experts’ views to model four credible energy pathways for Britain over coming decades. Matthew Wright our head of strategy and regulation outlines what the 2021 outlook means for consumers society and the energy system itself.<br/>This year’s Future Energy Scenarios insight reveals a glimpse of a Britain that is powered with net zero carbon emissions.<br/>Our analysis shows that our country can achieve its legally-binding carbon reduction targets: in three out of four scenarios in the analysis the country reaches net zero carbon emissions by 2050 with Leading the Way – our most ambitious scenario – achieving it in 2047 and becoming net negative by 2050.
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