Policy & Socio-Economics
A Review of Energy Systems Models in the UK: Prevalent Usage and Categorisation
Feb 2016
Publication
In this paper a systematic review of academic literature and policy papers since 2008 is undertaken with an aim of identifying the prevalent energy systems models and tools in the UK. A list of all referenced models is presented and the literature is analysed with regards sectoral coverage and technological inclusion as well as mathematical structure of models. The paper compares available models using an appropriate classification schema the introduction of which is aimed at making the model landscape more accessible and perspicuous thereby enhancing the diversity of models within use. The distinct classification presented in this paper comprises three sections which specify the model purpose and structure technological detail and mathematical approach. The schema is not designed to be comprehensive but rather to be a broad classification with pertinent level of information required to differentiate between models. As an example the UK model landscape is considered and 22 models are classified in three tables as per the proposed schema.
Everything About Hydrogen Podcast: Global Energy Majors in the Hydrogen Space
Jul 2022
Publication
On today’s episode of Everything About Hydrogen we are speaking with Paul Bogers Vice President for Hydrogen at Shell. As a company Shell needs no introduction but the company’s work and investments in the hydrogen space make it a global leader in the energy transition especially when it comes to the hydrogen component. Paul is amongst the executives at Shell that are working to bring their hydrogen vision to fruition and it is great to have him with us on the show today.
The podcast can be found on their website
The podcast can be found on their website
Pipeline to 2050 - Building the Foundations for a Harmonised Heat Strategy
Nov 2020
Publication
Following up on our report Uncomfortable Home Truths: why Britain urgently needs a low carbon heat strategy Pipeline to 2050 sets out recommendations for BEIS’ forthcoming Heat and Buildings Strategy. Based on the findings of five roundtables held between January and July 2020 with cross-party parliamentarians policy-makers and experts from industry academia and non-governmental organisations the publication calls for a joined-up approach that simultaneously addresses all aspects of heat decarbonisation.<br/>The report highlights that today there is a patchwork of heat policy initiatives. Although they might incentivise positive development in themselves are nevertheless too dispersed and not enough to drive the level of coordinated action that is needed given the complexity of heat decarbonisation. Setting out propositions to tackle challenges associated with the transition to low carbon heat in the areas of governance funding innovation and public engagement; the publication calls for a Heat and Buildings Strategy that shows a step change in terms of ambition for heat decarbonisation.<br/>The report recommends that the Heat and Buildings Strategy needs to put forward a systematic approach that joins up all policy aspects and principles needed for the transition to low carbon heat. Moreover given the cross-sectoral engagement needed between consumers industry research and various levels of the government it argues that the Strategy has to be constructed in a way that simultaneously catalyses action from all stakeholders that are needed to take part in the process for effective heat decarbonisation.
A Historical Analysis of Hydrogen Economy Research, Development, and Expectations, 1972 to 2020
Jan 2023
Publication
Global climate change concerns have pushed international governmental actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by adopting cleaner technologies hoping to transition to a more sustainable society. The hydrogen economy is one potential long-term option for enabling deep decarbonization for the future energy landscape. Progress towards an operating hydrogen economy is discouragingly slow despite global efforts to accelerate it. There are major mismatches between the present situation surrounding the hydrogen economy and previous proposed milestones that are far from being reached. The overall aim of this study is to understand whether there has been significant real progress in the achievement of a hydrogen economy or whether the current interest is overly exaggerated (hype). This study uses bibliometric analysis and content analysis to historically map the hydrogen economy’s development from 1972 to 2020 by quantifying and analyzing three sets of interconnected data. Findings indicate that interest in the hydrogen economy has significantly progressed over the past five decades based on the growing numbers of academic publications media coverage and projects. However various endogenous and exogenous factors have influenced the development of the hydrogen economy and created hype at different points in time. The consolidated results explore the changing trends and how specific events or actors have influenced the development of the hydrogen economy with their agendas the emergence of hype cycles and the expectations of a future hydrogen economy.
Life Cycle Costing Analysis: Tools and Applications for Determining Hydrogen Production Cost for Fuel Cell Vehicle Technology
Jul 2021
Publication
This work investigates life cycle costing analysis as a tool to estimate the cost of hydrogen to be used as fuel for Hydrogen Fuel Cell vehicles (HFCVs). The method of life cycle costing and economic data are considered to estimate the cost of hydrogen for centralised and decentralised production processes. In the current study two major hydrogen production methods are considered methane reforming and water electrolysis. The costing frameworks are defined for hydrogen production transportation and final application. The results show that hydrogen production via centralised methane reforming is financially viable for future transport applications. The ownership cost of HFCVs shows the highest cost among other costs of life cycle analysis.
Cost-Economic Analysis of Hydrogen for China’s Fuel Cell Transportation Field
Dec 2020
Publication
China has become a major market for hydrogen used in fuel cells in the transportation field. It is key to control the cost of hydrogen to open up the Chinese market. The development status and trends of China’s hydrogen fuel industry chain were researched. A hydrogen energy cost model was established in this paper from five aspects: raw material cost fixed cost of production hydrogen purification cost carbon trading cost and transportation cost. The economic analysis of hydrogen was applied to hydrogen transported in the form of high-pressure hydrogen gas or cryogenic liquid hydrogen and produced by natural gas coal and electrolysis of water. It was found that the cost of hydrogen from natural gas and coal is currently lower while it is greatly affected by the hydrogen purification cost and the carbon trading price. Considering the impact of future production technologies raw material costs and rising requirements for sustainable energy development on the hydrogen energy cost it is recommended to use renewable energy curtailment as a source of electricity and multi-stack system electrolyzers as large-scale electrolysis equipment in combination with cryogenic liquid hydrogen transportation or on-site hydrogen production. Furthermore participation in electricity market-oriented transactions cross-regional transactions and carbon trading can reduce the cost of hydrogen. These approaches represent the optimal method for obtaining inexpensive hydrogen.
A Novel Framework for Development and Optimisation of Future Electricity Scenarios with High Penetration of Renewables and Storage
May 2019
Publication
Although electricity supply is still dominated by fossil fuels it is expected that renewable sources will have a much larger contribution in the future due to the need to mitigate climate change. Therefore this paper presents a new framework for developing Future Electricity Scenarios (FuturES) with high penetration of renewables. A multi-period linear programming model has been created for power-system expansion planning. This has been coupled with an economic dispatch model PowerGAMA to evaluate the technical and economic feasibility of the developed scenarios while matching supply and demand. Application of FuturES is demonstrated through the case of Chile which has ambitious plans to supply electricity using only renewable sources. Four cost-optimal scenarios have been developed for the year 2050 using FuturES: two Business as usual (BAU) and two Renewable electricity (RE) scenarios. The BAU scenarios are unconstrained in terms of the technology type and can include all 11 options considered. The RE scenarios aim to have only renewables in the mix including storage. The results show that both BAU scenarios have a levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) lower than or equal to today’s costs ($72.7–77.3 vs $77.6/MWh) and include 81–90% of renewables. The RE scenarios are slightly more expensive than today’s costs ($81–87/MWh). The cumulative investment for the BAU scenarios is $123-$145 bn compared to $147-$157 bn for the RE. The annual investment across the scenarios is estimated at $4.0 ± 0.4 bn. Both RE scenarios show sufficient flexibility in matching supply and demand despite solar photovoltaics and wind power contributing around half of the total supply. Therefore the FuturES framework is a powerful tool for aiding the design of cost-efficient power systems with high penetration of renewables.
Hydrogen Deep Ocean Link: A Global Sustainable Interconnected Energy Grid
Mar 2022
Publication
The world is undergoing a substantial energy transition with an increasing share of intermittent sources of energy on the grid which is increasing the challenges to operate the power grid reliably. An option that has been receiving much focus after the COVID pandemic is the development of a hydrogen economy. Challenges for a hydrogen economy are the high investment costs involved in compression storage and long-distance transportation. This paper analyses an innovative proposal for the creation of hydrogen ocean links. It intends to fill existing gaps in the creation of a hydrogen economy with the increase in flexibility and viability for hydrogen production consumption compression storage and transportation. The main concept behind the proposals presented in this paper consists of using the fact that the pressure in the deep sea is very high which allows a thin and cheap HDPE tank to store and transport large amounts of pressurized hydrogen in the deep sea. This is performed by replacing seawater with pressurized hydrogen and maintaining the pressure in the pipes similar to the outside pressure. Hydrogen Deep Ocean Link has the potential of increasing the interconnectivity of different regional energy grids into a global sustainable interconnected energy system.
Transition to a Hydrogen-Based Economy: Possibilities and Challenges
Nov 2022
Publication
Across the globe energy production and usage cause the greatest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which are the key driver of climate change. Therefore countries around the world are aggressively striving to convert to a clean energy regime by altering the ways and means of energy production. Hydrogen is a frontrunner in the race to net-zero carbon because it can be produced using a diversity of feedstocks has versatile use cases and can help ensure energy security. While most current hydrogen production is highly carbon-intensive advances in carbon capture renewable energy generation and electrolysis technologies could help drive the production of low-carbon hydrogen. However significant challenges such as the high cost of production a relatively small market size and inadequate infrastructure need to be addressed before the transition to a hydrogen-based economy can be made. This review presents the state of hydrogen demand challenges in scaling up low-carbon hydrogen possible solutions for a speedy transition and a potential course of action for nations.
A Financial Model for Lithium-ion Storage in a Photovoltaic and Biogas Energy System
May 2019
Publication
Electrical energy storage (EES) such as lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries can reduce curtailment of renewables maximizing renewable utilization by storing surplus electricity. Several techno-economic analyses have been performed on EES but few have investigated the financial performance. This paper presents a state-of-the-art financial model obtaining novel and significative financial and economics results when applied to Li-ion EES. This work is a significant step forward since traditional analysis on EES are based on oversimplified and unrealistic economic models. A discounted cash flow model for the Li-ion EES is introduced and applied to examine the financial performance of three EES operating scenarios. Real-life solar irradiance load and retail electricity price data from Kenya are used to develop a set of case studies. The EES is coupled with photovoltaics and an anaerobic digestion biogas power plant. The results show the impact of capital cost: the Li-ion project is unprofitable in Kenya with a capital cost of 1500 $/kWh but is profitable at 200 $/kWh. The study shows that the EES will generate a higher profit if it is cycled more frequently (hence a higher lifetime electricity output) although the lifetime is reduced due to degradation.
A Review of Technical Advances, Barriers, and Solutions in the Power to Hydrogen Roadmap
Oct 2020
Publication
Power to hydrogen (P2H) provides a promising solution to the geographic mismatch between sources of renewable energy and the market due to its technological maturity flexibility and the availability of technical and economic data from a range of active demonstration projects. In this review we aim to provide an overview of the status of P2H analyze its technical barriers and solutions and propose potential opportunities for future research and industrial demonstrations. We specifically focus on the transport of hydrogen via natural gas pipeline networks and end-user purification. Strong evidence shows that an addition of about 10% hydrogen into natural gas pipelines has negligible effects on the pipelines and utilization appliances and may therefore extend the asset value of the pipelines after natural gas is depleted. To obtain pure hydrogen from hydrogen-enriched natural gas (HENG) mixtures end-user separation is inevitable and can be achieved through membranes adsorption and other promising separation technologies. However novel materials with high selectivity and capacity will be the key to the development of industrial processes and an integrated membrane-adsorption process may be considered in order to produce high-purity hydrogen from HENG. It is also worth investigating the feasibility of electrochemical separation (hydrogen pumping) at a large scale and its energy analysis. Cryogenics may only be feasible when liquefied natural gas (LNG) is one of the major products. A range of other technological and operational barriers and opportunities such as water availability byproduct (oxygen) utilization and environmental impacts are also discussed. This review will advance readers’ understanding of P2H and foster the development of the hydrogen economy.
Climate Action: Prospects of Green Hydrogen in Africa
Feb 2022
Publication
Africa is rich with an abundance of renewable energy sources that can help meeting the continent’s demand for electricity to promote economic growth and meet global targets for CO2 reduction. Green Hydrogen is considered one of the most promising technologies for energy generation transportation and storage. In this paper the prospects of green hydrogen production potential in Africa are investigated along with its usage for future implementation. Moreover an overview of the benefits of shifting to green Hydrogen technology is presented. The current African infrastructure and policies are tested against future targets and goals. Furthermore the study embraces a detailed theoretical environmental technological and economic assessment putting the local energy demands into consideration.
Towards a Safe Hydrogen Economy: An Absolute Climate Sustainability Assessment of Hydrogen Production
Jan 2023
Publication
Policymakers and global energy models are increasingly looking towards hydrogen as an enabling energy carrier to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors (projecting growth in hydrogen consumption in the magnitude of hundreds of megatons). Combining scenarios from global energy models and life cycle impacts of different hydrogen production technologies the results of this work show that the life cycle emissions from proposed configurations of the hydrogen economy would lead to climate overshoot of at least 5.4–8.1x of the defined “safe” space for greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and the cumulative consumption of 8–12% of the remaining carbon budget. This work suggests a need for a science-based definition of “clean” hydrogen agnostic of technology and compatible with a “safe” development of the hydrogen economy. Such a definition would deem blue hydrogen environmentally unviable by 2025–2035. The prolific use of green hydrogen is also problematic however due to the requirement of a significant amount of renewable energy and the associated embedded energy land and material impacts. These results suggest that demand-side solutions should be further considered as the large-scale transition to hydrogen which represents a “clean” energy shift may still not be sufficient to lead humanity into a “safe” space.
Multi-model Assessment of Heat Decarbonisation Options in the UK Using Electricity and Hydrogen
May 2022
Publication
Delivering low-carbon heat will require the substitution of natural gas with low-carbon alternatives such as electricity and hydrogen. The objective of this paper is to develop a method to soft-link two advanced investment-optimising energy system models RTN (Resource-Technology Network) and WeSIM (Whole-electricity System Investment Model) in order to assess cost-efficient heat decarbonisation pathways for the UK while utilising the respective strengths of the two models. The linking procedure included passing on hourly electricity prices from WeSIM as input to RTN and returning capacities and locations of hydrogen generation and shares of electricity and hydrogen in heat supply from RTN to WeSIM. The outputs demonstrate that soft-linking can improve the quality of the solution while providing useful insights into the cost-efficient pathways for zero-carbon heating. Quantitative results point to the cost-effectiveness of using a mix of electricity and hydrogen technologies for delivering zero-carbon heat also demonstrating a high level of interaction between electricity and hydrogen infrastructure in a zero-carbon system. Hydrogen from gas reforming with carbon capture and storage can play a significant role in the medium term while remaining a cost-efficient option for supplying peak heat demand in the longer term with the bulk of heat demand being supplied by electric heat pumps.
A Thorough Emission-Cost Analysis of the Gradual Replacement of Carbon-Rich Fuels with Carbon-Free Energy Carriers in Modern Power Plants: The Case of Cyprus
Aug 2022
Publication
Global efforts towards de-carbonization give rise to remarkable energy challenges which include renewable energy penetration increase and intermediate energy carriers for a sustainable transition. In order to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels alternative sources are considered by commodities to satisfy their increasing electricity demand as a consequence of a rise in population and the quantity of residential appliances in forthcoming years. The near-term trends appear to be in fuel and emission reduction techniques through the integration of carbon capture and storage and more efficient energy carriers exploiting alternative energy sources such as natural gas and hydrogen. Formulating both the fuel consumption and emission released the obtained experimental results showed that the total production cost can be reduced by making use of natural gas for the transition towards 2035’s targets. Maximum profits will be achieved with hydrogen as the only fuel in modern power plants by 2050. In this way the lowest electricity production can be achieved as well as the elimination of carbon dioxide emissions. Since the integration of renewable energy resources in the sectors of electricity heating/cooling and transportation will continuously be increased alternative feedstocks can serve as primary inputs and contribute to production cost profits improved utilization factors and further environmental achievements.
Hydrogen Technology Development and Policy Status by Value Chain in South Korea
Nov 2022
Publication
Global transitions from carbon- to hydrogen-based economies are an essential component of curbing greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. This study provides an investigative review of the technological development trends within the overall hydrogen value chain in terms of production storage transportation and application with the aim of identifying patterns in the announcement and execution of hydrogen-based policies both domestically within Korea as well as internationally. The current status of technological trends was analyzed across the three areas of natural hydrogen carbon dioxide capture utilization and storage technology linked to blue hydrogen and green hydrogen production linked to renewable energy (e.g. water electrolysis). In Korea the establishment of underground hydrogen storage facilities is potentially highly advantageous for the storage of domestically produced and imported hydrogen providing the foundations for large-scale application as economic feasibility is the most important national factor for the provision of fuel cells. To realize a hydrogen economy pacing policy and technological development is essential in addition to establishing a roadmap for efficient policy support. In terms of technological development it is important to prioritize that which can connect the value chain all of which will ultimately play a major role in the transformation of human energy consumption.
Review of the Effects of Fossil Fuels and the Need for a Hydrogen Fuel Cell Policy in Malaysia
Feb 2023
Publication
The world has relied on fossil fuel energy for a long time producing many adverse effects. Long-term fossil fuel dependency has increased carbon emissions and accelerated climate change. In addition fossil fuels are also depleting and will soon be very costly. Moreover the expensive national electricity grid has yet to reach rural areas and will be cut off in inundation areas. As such alternative and carbon-free hydrogen fuel cell energy is highly recommended as it solves these problems. The reviews find that (i) compared to renewable energy such as solar biomass and hydropower a fuel cell does not require expensive transmission through an energy grid and is carbon-free and hence it is a faster agent to decelerate climate change; (ii) fuel cell technologies have reached an optimum level due to the high-efficiency production of energy and they are environmentally friendly; (iii) the absence of a policy on hydrogen fuel cells will hinder investment from private companies as they are not adequately regulated. It is thus recommended that countries embarking on hydrogen fuel cell development have a specific policy in place to allow the government to fund and regulate hydrogen fuel cells in the energy generation mix. This is essential as it provides the basis for alternative energy governance development and management of a country.
Quantifying the Impacts of Heat Decarbonisation Pathways on the Future Electricity and Gas Demand
May 2022
Publication
The decarbonisation of heat supply will play a critical role in meeting the emissions reduction target. There is however great uncertainty associated with the achievable levels of heat decarbonisation and the optimal heat technology mix which can have serious implications for the future electricity and gas demand. This work employs an integrated gas electricity and heat supply model to quantify the impacts of heat decarbonisation pathways on the future electricity and gas demand. A case study in the Great Britain is performed considering two heat decarbonisation scenarios in 2050: one is the predominantly electrified heat supply and the other is the predominantly hydrogen-based heat supply. The electricity demand becomes more volatile in the electrified heat scenario as the peak surges to 107.3 GW compared to 51.1 GW in the 2018 reference scenario while the peak in hydrogen-based heat scenario is 78.4 GW. The peak gas demand declines from 247.6 GW for 2018 to 81.7 GW for electrified heat scenario and to 85.1 GW for hydrogen-based heat scenario confirming that the seasonality associated with heat demand is shifting away from the gas network and towards electricity network. Moreover a sensitivity analysis shows that the future electricity demand is highly sensitive to parameters such as relative heat demand coefficient of performance of air source heat pumps and share of electricity in hydrogen production. Finally the application of a load shifting strategy demonstrates that demand-side flexibility has the potential to maintain the electricity system balance and minimise the generation and network infrastructure requirements arising from heat electrification. While the case study presented in this paper is based on the Great Britain the findings regarding the future electricity and gas demand are relevant for the global energy transition.
Everything About Hydrogen Podcast: Financing the Hydrogen Revolution
Aug 2020
Publication
On this week's episode of Everything About Hydrogen the team are catching up with Astrid Behaghel the Energy Transition expert on hydrogen for BNP Paribas. On the show the team discuss how BNP Paribas see the emerging role of hydrogen in the energy transition how the financing of hydrogen projects differs for newer hydrogen initiatives and why BNP Paribas joined the Hydrogen Council. We also dive into the question of what role can (or even should) Banks play in the evolution and development of the emerging hydrogen market and BNPs plans to expand its activities in this sector. All this and more!
The podcast can be found on their website
The podcast can be found on their website
Hydrogen Emissions from a Hydrogen Economy and their Potential Global Warming Impact
Aug 2022
Publication
Hydrogen (H2) is expected to be a key instrument to meet the European Union (EU) Green Deal main objective: i.e. climate neutrality by 2050. Renewable hydrogen deployment is expected to significantly reduce EU greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by displacing carbon-intensive sources of energy. However concerns have been raised recently regarding the potential global warming impact caused by hydrogen emissions. Although hydrogen is neither intentionally emitted to the atmosphere when used nor a direct greenhouse gas hydrogen losses affect atmospheric chemistry indirectly contributing to global warming. To better understand the potential environmental impact of a hydrogen economy and to assess the need for action in this respect the Clean Hydrogen Joint Undertaking and the U.S. Department of Energy jointly organised with the support of the European Commission Hydrogen Europe Hydrogen Europe Research the Hydrogen Council and the International Partnership for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells in the Economy a 2-day expert workshop. Experts agreed that a low-carbon and in particular a renewable hydrogen economy would significantly reduce the global warming impact compared to a fossil fuel economy. However hydrogen losses to the atmosphere will impact the lifetime of other greenhouse gases namely methane ozone and water vapour indirectly contributing to the increase of the Earth’s temperature in the near-term. To minimise the climate impact of a hydrogen economy losses should therefore be minimised prevented and monitored. Unfortunately current loss rates along the hydrogen supply chain are not well constrained and are currently estimated to go from few percents for compressed hydrogen (1-4%) up to 10-20% for liquefied hydrogen. Both the global warming impact of hydrogen emissions and the leakage rates from a developed hydrogen economy are subject to a high level of uncertainty. It is therefore of paramount importance to invest in developing the ability to accurately quantify hydrogen emissions as well as engage in more research on hydrogen leakage prevention and monitoring systems. More data from the hydrogen industry and improved observational capacity are needed to improve the accuracy of the global hydrogen budget. Finally it is recommended to always report the amount and location of hydrogen emissions when environmental assessments are performed. There is a range of emission metrics and time scales that are designed to evaluate the climate impacts of short-lived GHG emissions compared to CO2 (i.e. CO2 equivalents). The metric choice must depend on the specific policy goal as they can provide very different perspectives on the relative importance of H2 emissions on the climate depending on the time horizon of concern. These differences need to be viewed in the context of the specific policy objectives.
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