United Kingdom

Safety distances for hydrogen plumes are currently derived using models developed for hydrocarbon releases. It is well known that hydrogen behaves in a significantly different manner to that of hydrocarbons when released to atmosphere. There are two main aspects involved with the development of safety distances for credible hydrogen releases; the intensity of the thermal radiation from such a plume should it be ignited and the distance downwind from the release point to the point where a flammable mixture with air no longer exists. A number of distinct areas of venting behaviour were investigated; Thermal radiation from ignited plumes from vertical open ended vent pipes Far field radiation measurements for direct comparison with models Thermal radiation from ignited plumes from vertical vent pipes terminating in a T-piece Thermal radiation measurements from ignited hydrogen with a 45 vent termination Hydrogen concentration measurements with a T-piece.

The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software FLACS has primarily been developed to model dispersion and explosion phenomena; however models for the simulation of jet fires are under development. The aim is to be able to predict industrial fires efficiently and with good precision.  Newly developed models include e.g. flame models for non-premixed flames discrete transfer radiation model as well as soot models. Since the time scales for fire simulations are longer than for explosions the computational speed is important. The recent development of non-compressible and parallel solvers in FLACS may therefore be important to ensure efficiency. Hydrogen flames may be invisible will generate no soot and tend to radiate less than hydrocarbon fuels. Due to high pressure storage the flame lengths can be significant. Simpler jet flame relations can not predict the jet flame interaction with objects and barriers and thus the heat loads on impacted objects. The development of efficient and precise CFD-tools for hydrogen fires is therefore important. In this paper the new models for the simulation of fire are described. These models are currently under development and this manuscript describes the current status of the work. Jet fire experiments performed by Health and Safety Laboratories (HSL) both free jets and impinging jets will also be simulated to evaluate the applicability and validity of the new fire models.

This study is driven by the need to understand requirements to safe blow-down of hydrogen onboard storage tanks through a pressure relief device (PRD) inside a garage-like enclosure with low natural ventilation. Current composite tanks for high pressure hydrogen storage have been shown to rupture in 3.5–6.5 min in fire conditions. As a result a large PRD venting area is currently used to release hydrogen from the tank before its catastrophic failure. However even if unignited the release of hydrogen from such PRDs has been shown in our previous studies to result in unacceptable overpressures within the garage capable of causing major damage and possible collapse of the structure. Thus to prevent collapse of the garage in the case of a malfunction of the PRD and an unignited hydrogen release there is a clear need to increase blow-down time by reducing PRD venting area. Calculations of PRD diameter to safely blow-down storage tanks with inventories of 1 5 and 13 kg hydrogen are considered here for a range of garage volumes and natural ventilation expressed in air changes per hour (ACH). The phenomenological model is used to examine the pressure dynamics within a garage with low natural ventilation down to the known minimum of 0.03 ACH. Thus with moderate hydrogen flow rate from the PRD and small vents providing ventilation of the enclosure there will be only outflow from the garage without any air intake from outside. The PRD diameter which ensures that the pressure in the garage does not exceed a value of 20 kPa (accepted in this study as a safe overpressure for civil structures) was calculated for varying garage volumes and natural ventilation (ACH). The results are presented in the form of simple to use engineering nomograms. The conclusion is drawn that PRDs currently available for hydrogen-powered vehicles should be redesigned along with either a change of requirements for the fire resistance rating or innovative design of the onboard storage system as hydrogen-powered vehicles are intended for garage parking. Further research is needed to develop safety strategies and engineering solutions to tackle the problem of fire resistance of onboard storage tanks and requirements to PRD performance. Regulation codes and standards in the field should address this issue.

Hydrogen gas explosions in homogeneous reactive mixtures have been widely studied both experimentally and numerically. However in practice combustible mixtures are usually inhomogeneous and subject to both vertical and horizontal concentration gradients. There is still very limited understanding of the hydrogen explosion characteristics in such situations. The present numerical investigation aims to study the effect of mixture concentration gradient on the process of Deflagration to Detonation Transition and the effect of different hydrogen concentration gradient in the obstructed channel of hydrogen/air mixtures. An obstructed channel with 30% blockage ratio (BR=30) and three different average hydrogen concentrations of 20 % 30% and 35% have been considered using a specially developed density-based solver within the OpenFOAM toolbox. A high-resolution grid was built with the using adaptive mesh refinement technique providing 10 grid points in half reaction length. The numerical results are in reasonably good agreement with the experimental  observations [1]. These studies show that the concentration gradient has a considerable effect on the accelerated flame tip speed and the location of transition to detonation in the obstructed channel. In all the three cases the first localised explosion occurred near the bottom wall where the shock and flame interacted and the mixture was most lean; and the second localised explosion occurred at the top wall due to the reflection of shock and flame front and later develops to form the leading detonation wave. The increase in the fuel concentration was found to increase the flame acceleration (FA) and having a faster transition to detonation.

Experiments were performed on the influence of oxidants (air pure oxygen O2 and pure nitrous oxide N2O at atmospheric pressure) in the straight expansion tube after the burst disk on the hydrogen spontaneous ignition. The lowest pressure at which the spontaneous ignition is observed has been researched for a 4 mm diameter tube with a length of 10 cm for the two oxidant gases. The ignition phenomenon is observed with a high speed camera and the external overpressures are measured. Numerical simulations have also been conducted with the high resolution CFD approach detailed chemistry formerly developed by Wen and co-workers. Comparison is made between the predictions and the experimental data.

The paper presents the outcomes of the HyResponse project i.e. the European Hydrogen Safety Training Programme for first responders. The threefold training is described: the content of the educational training is presented the operational training platform and its mock-up real scale transport and hydrogen stationary installations are detailed and the innovative virtual tools and training exercises are highlighted. The paper underlines the outcomes the three pilot sessions as well as the Emergency Response Guide available on the HyResponse’s public website. The next steps for widespread dissemination into the community are discussed.

In this work a mixed-cation borohydride (K2Mn(BH4)4) with P21/n structure was successfully synthesized by mechanochemical milling of the 2KBH4–MnCl2 sample under argon. The structural and thermal decomposition properties of the borohydride compounds were investigated using XRD Raman spectroscopy FTIR TGA-MS and DSC. Apart from K2Mn(BH4)4 the KMnCl3 and unreacted KBH4 compounds were present in the milled 2KBH4–MnCl2. The two mass loss regions were observed for the milled sample: one was from 100 to 160 °C with a 1.6 ± 0.1 wt% loss (a release of majority hydrogen and trace diborane) which was associated with the decomposition of K2Mn(BH4)4 to form KBH4 boron and finely dispersed manganese; the other was from 165 to 260 °C with a 1.9 ± 0.1 wt% loss (only hydrogen release) which was due to the reaction of KBH4 with KMnCl3 to give KCl boron finely dispersed manganese. Simultaneously the formed KCl could dissolve in KBH4 to yield a K(BH4)xCl1−x solid solution and also react with KMnCl3 to form a new compound K4MnCl6.

Catastrophic rupture of onboard hydrogen storage in a fire is a safety concern. Different passive e.g. fireproofing materials the thermally activated pressure relief device (TPRD) and active e.g. initiation of TPRD by fire sensors safety systems are being developed to reduce hazards from and associated risks of high-pressure hydrogen storage tank rupture in a fire. The probability of such low-frequency highconsequences event is a function of fire resistance rating (FRR) i.e. the time before tank without TPRD ruptures in a fire the probability of TPRD failure etc. This safety issue is “confirmed” by observed recently cases of CNG tanks rupture due to blocked or failed to operate TPRD etc. The increase of FRR by any means decreases the probability of tank rupture in a fire particularly because of fire extinction by first responders on arrival at an accident scene.<br/>This study of socio-economic effects of safety applies a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methodology to an example of hydrogen vehicles with passive tank protection system on roads in London.<br/>The risk is defined here through the cost of human loss per fuel cell hydrogen vehicle (FCHV) fire accident and fatality rate per FCHV per year. The first step in the methodology is the consequence analysis based on validated deterministic engineering tools to estimate the main identified hazards: overpressure in the blast wave at different distances and the thermal hazards from a fireball in the case of catastrophic tank rupture in a fire. The population can be exposed to slight injury serious injury and fatality after an accident. These effects are determined based on criteria by Health and Safety Executive (UK) and a cost metrics is applied to the number of exposed people in these three harm categories to estimate the cost per an accident. The second step in the methodology is either the frequency or the probability analysis. Probabilities of a vehicle fire and failure of the thermally activated pressure relief device are taken from published sources. A vulnerability probit function is employed to calculate the probability of emergency operations’ failure to prevent tank rupture as a function of a storage tank FRR and time of fire brigade arrival. These later results are integrated to estimate the tank rupture frequency and fatality rate. The risk is presented as a function of fire resistance rating.<br/>The QRA methodology allows to calculate the cost of human loss associated with an FCHV fire accident and demonstrates how the increase of FRR of onboard storage as a safety engineering measure would improve socio-economics of FCHV deployment and public acceptance of the technology.

This paper demonstrates experimental and numerical study on spontaneous ignition of H2–N2 mixtures during high-pressure release into air through the tubes of various diameters and lengths. The mixtures included 5% and 10% (vol.) N2 addition to hydrogen being at initial pressure in range of 4.3–15.9 MPa. As a point of reference pure hydrogen release experiments were performed with use of the same experimental stand experimental procedure and extension tubes. The results showed that N2 addition may increase the initial pressure necessary to self-ignite the mixture as much as 2.12 or 2.85 – times for 5% and 10% N2 addition respectively. Additionally simulations were performed with use of Cantera code (0-D) based on the ideal shock tube assumption and with the modified KIVA3V code (2-D) to establish the main factors responsible for ignition and sustained combustion during the release.

This paper describes work performed by a consortium led by the UK Health and Safety Laboratory(HSL)to identify the safe operating conditions for combined cycle power generating systems running on high hydrogen fuels. The work focuses on hydrogen and high hydrogen syngas and biogas waste-stream fuel mixtures which may prove hazardous in the event of a turbine or engine flame out resulting in a flammable fuel mixture entering the hot exhaust system and igniting. The paper describes the project presenting some initial results from this work including the development of large scale experimental facilities on the550 acre HSL site near Buxton Derbyshire UK. It describes the large scale experimental facility which utilises the exhaust gas from a Rolls-Royce Viper jet-engine (converted to run on butane) feeding into a 12 m long 0.60 m diameter instrumented tube at a pre-combustion velocity of 22 m/s. A variable geometry simulated heat exchanger with a 40 %2blockage ratio is present in the tube. Flammable mixtures injected into the tube close to the Viper outlet together with make-up oxygen are then ignited. Extensive optical ionisation temperature and pressure sensors are employed along the length of the tube to measure the pressures and flame speeds resulting from the combustion event. Some preliminary results from the test programme are discussed including deflagration to detonation transitions at high equivalence ratios.

The Hydrogen and Fuel Cell (H2FC) European research infrastructure cyber-laboratory is a software suite containing ‘modelling’ and ‘engineering’ tools encompassing a wide range of H2FC processes and systems. One of the core aims of the H2FC Cyber-laboratory has been the creation of a state-of-the-art hydrogen CFD modelling toolbox. This paper describes the implementation and validation of this new CFD modelling toolbox in conjunction with a selection of the available ‘Safety’ engineering tools to analyse a high pressure hydrogen release and dispersion scenario. The experimental work used for this validation was undertaken by Shell and the Health and Safety Laboratory (UK). The overall goal of this work is to provide and make readily available a Cyber-laboratory that will be worth maintaining after the end of the H2FC project for the benefit of both the FCH scientific community and industry. This paper therefore highlights how the H2FC Cyber-laboratory which is offered as an open access platform can be used to replicate and analyse real-world scenarios using both numerical engineering tools and through the implementation of CFD modelling techniques.

Correct use of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools is essential in order to have confidence in the results. A comprehensive set of Best Practice Guidelines (BPG) in numerical simulations for Fuel Cells and Hydrogen applications has been one of the main outputs of the SUSANA project. These BPG focus on the practical needs of engineers in consultancies and industry undertaking CFD simulations or evaluating CFD simulation results in support of hazard/risk assessments of hydrogen facilities as well as on the needs of regulatory authorities. This contribution presents a summary of the BPG document. All crucial aspects of numerical simulations are addressed such as selection of the physical models domain design meshing boundary conditions and selection of numerical parameters. BPG cover all hydrogen safety relative phenomena i.e. release and dispersion ignition jet fire deflagration and detonation. A series of CFD benchmarking exercises are also presented serving as examples of appropriate modelling strategies.

Commercial use of hydrogen on-board fuel cell vehicles necessitates the compression of hydrogen gas up to 700 bar raising unique safety challenges. Potential hazards to be addressed include jet fires from high-pressure hydrogen on-board storage. Previous studies investigated effects of jet fires that occur when pressure relief devices (PRDs) on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles activate. This investigation examines plane jets’ axis switching and flame length accounting for compressibility effects and turbulent combustion near the point of release. Comparison with experimental data and previous plane jet simulation results reveal that combustion process does not affect flow dynamics in compressible region of jet flow. Furthermore a theoretical design of a variable aperture pressure relief device is examined which would enable the blow-down time to be minimized while reducing deterministic separation distances is examined using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) techniques. Design recommendations are suggested for a novel PRD design.

The introduction of hydrogen into the UK natural gas main has been reviewed in terms of how materials within the gas distribution network may be affected by contact with up to 80% Natural Gas : 20 mol% hydrogen blend at up to 2 barg. A range of metallic polymeric and elastomeric materials in the gas distribution network (GDN) were assessed via a combination of literature review and targeted practical test programmes.

The work considered:

• The effect of hydrogen on metallic materials identified in the network
• The effect of hydrogen on polymeric materials identified in the network
• The effect of hydrogen exposure on polyethylene pipeline techniques (squeeze off and collar electrofusion)

The trials concluded that the majority of metallic materials showed no significant deterioration in mechanical (tensile) properties when stored in hydrogen environments compared to those stored in analogous methane or blended gas atmospheres up to 2barg. Polymeric materials showed no deterioration to efficiency of squeeze-off nor collar electrofusion in socket or shoulder orientations following soaking in hydrogen methane or hydrogen blends.

The characterization of liquid hydrogen (LH2) releases has been identified as an international research priority to expand the safe use of hydrogen as an energy carrier. The elucidation of LH2 release behavior will require the development of dispersion and other models guided and validated by empirical field measurements such as those afforded by Hydrogen Wide Area Monitoring (HyWAM). HyWAM can be defined as the quantitative spatial and temporal three-dimensional monitoring of planned or unintentional hydrogen releases. With support provided through the FCH JU Prenormative Research for the Safe Use of Liquid Hydrogen (PRESLHY) program HSE performed a series of LH2 releases to characterize the dispersion and pooling behavior of cold hydrogen releases. The NREL Sensor Laboratory developed a HyWAM system based upon a distributed array of point sensors that is amenable for profiling cold hydrogen plumes. The NREL Sensor Laboratory and HSE formally committed to collaborate on profiling the LH2 releases. This collaboration included the integration of the NREL HyWAM into the HSE LH2 release hardware. This was achieved through a deployment plan jointly developed by the NREL and HSE personnel. Under this plan the NREL Sensor Laboratory provided multiple HyWAM modules that accommodated 32 sampling points for near-field hydrogen profiling during the HSE PRESLHY LH2 releases. The NREL HyWAM would be utilized throughout the LH2 release study performed under PRESLHY by HSE including Work Package 3 (WP3—Release and Mixing--Rainout) and subsequent work packages (WP4—Ignition and WP5—Combustion). Under the auspices of the PRESLHY WP6 (Implementation) data and findings from the HSE LH2 Releases are to be made available to stakeholders in the hydrogen community. Comprehensive data analysis and dissemination is ongoing but the integration of the NREL HyWAM into the HSE LH2 Release Apparatus and its performance as well as some key outcomes of the LH2 releases in WP3 are presented.

This paper describes a CFD study of a scenario involving the vertical downward release of hydrogen from a thermally-activated pressure relief device (TPRD) under a fuel cell car. The volumetric source model is applied to simulate hydrogen release dynamics during the tank blowdown process. Simulations are conducted for both unignited and ignited releases from onboard storage at 35 MPa and 70 MPa with TPRD orifice 4.2 mm. Results show that after TPRD opening the hazards associated with the release of hydrogen lasts less than two minutes and the most hazardous timeframe occurs within ten seconds of the initiation of the release. The deterministic separation distances for unignited releases are longer than those for ignited releases indicating that the separation distances are dominated by delayed ignition events rather than immediate ignition events. The deterministic separation distances for both unignited and ignited hydrogen downward releases under the car are significantly shorter than those of free jets. To ensure the safety of people a deterministic separation distance of at least 10 m for 35 MPa releases is required. This distance should be increased to 12 m for the 70 MPa release case. To ensure that the concentration of hydrogen is always less than 4% at the location of the air intake of buildings the deterministic separation distance should be at least 11 m for 35 MPa releases and 13 m for 70 MPa releases.

In recent years new-found interest in the hydrogen economy from both industry and academia has helped to shed light on its potential. Hydrogen can enable an energy revolution by providing much needed flexibility in renewable energy systems. As a clean energy carrier hydrogen offers a range of benefits for simultaneously decarbonizing the transport residential commercial and industrial sectors. Hydrogen is shown here to have synergies with other low-carbon alternatives and can enable a more cost-effective transition to de-carbonized and cleaner energy systems. This paper presents the opportunities for the use of hydrogen in key sectors of the economy and identifies the benefits and challenges within the hydrogen supply chain for power-to-gas power-to-power and gas-to-gas supply pathways. While industry players have already started the market introduction of hydrogen fuel cell systems including fuel cell electric vehicles and micro-combined heat and power devices the use of hydrogen at grid scale requires the challenges of clean hydrogen production bulk storage and distribution to be resolved. Ultimately greater government support in partnership with industry and academia is still needed to realize hydrogen's potential across all economic sectors.

Link to document download on Royal Society Website

Numerical investigations have been conducted on the effect of the internal geometry of a local contraction on the spontaneous ignition of pressurized hydrogen release through a length of tube using a 5th-order WENO scheme. A mixture-averaged multi-component approach was used for accurate calculation of molecular transport. The auto-ignition and combustion chemistry were accounted for using a 21-step kinetic scheme. It is found that a local contraction can significantly facilitate the occurrence of spontaneous ignition by producing elevated flammable mixture and enhancing turbulent mixing from shock formation reflection and interaction. The first ignition kernel is observed upstream the contraction. It then quickly propagates along the contact interface and transits to a partially premixed flame due to the enhanced turbulent mixing. The partially premixed flames are highly distorted and overlapped with each other. Flame thickening is observed which is due to the merge of thin flames. The numerical predictions suggested that sustained flames could develop for release pressure as low as 25 bar. For the release pressure of 18 bar spontaneous ignition was predicted but the flame was soon quenched. To some extent this finding is consistent with Dryer et al.'s experimental observation in that the minimum release pressure required to induce a spontaneous ignition for the release through a tube with internal geometries is only 20.4 bar.

Previous studies have demonstrated that while blowdown pressure is reproduced well by both adiabatic and isothermal analytical models the dynamics of temperature cannot be predicted well by either model. The reason for the last is heat transfer to cooling during expansion gas from the vessel wall. Moreover when exposed to an external fire the temperature inside the vessel increases i.e. when a thermally activated pressure relief device (TPRD) is still closed with subsequent pressure increase that may lead to a catastrophic rupture of the vessel. The choice of a TPRD exit orifice size and design strategy are challenges: to provide sufficient internal pressure drop in a fire when the orifice size is too small; to avoid flame blow off expected with the decrease of pressure during the blowdown; to decrease flame length of subsequent jet fire as much as possible by the decrease of the orifice size under condition of sufficient fire resistance provisions to avoid pressure peaking phenomenon etc. The adiabatic model of blowdown [1] was developed using the Abel-Nobel equation of state and the original theory of underexpanded jet [2]. According to experimental observations e.g. [3] heat transfer plays a significant role during the blowdown. Thus this study aims to modify the adiabatic blowdown model to include the heat transfer to non-ideal gas. The model accounts for a change of gas temperature inside the vessel due to two “competing” processes: the decrease of temperature due to gas expansion and the increase of temperature due to heat transfer from the surroundings e.g. ambience or fire through the vessel wall. This is taken into account in the system of equations of adiabatic blowdown model through the change of energy conservation equation that accounts for heat from outside. There is a need to know the convective heat transfer coefficient between the vessel wall and the surroundings and wall size and properties to define heat flux to the gas inside the vessel. The non-adiabatic model is validated against available experimental data. The model can be applied as a new engineering tool for the inherently safer design of hydrogen tank-TPRD system.

Having a robust evidence base enables us to tackle real issues causing pain and suffering in the workplace. Critically it enables us to better understand developing issues and ways of working to ensure that we support innovation rather than stifle it through lack of knowledge. For example the work on the use of 3D printers in schools demonstrates HSE’s bility to engage and understand the risks to encourage safe innovation in a developing area (see p47).<br/>Other examples in this report show just a selection of the excellent work carried out by our staff often collaborating with others which contributes to improving how we regulate health and safety risks proportionately and effectively.<br/>One of HSEs key priorities is to prevent future cases of occupational lung disease by improving the management and control of hazardous substances. The case study on measuring Respirable Crystalline Silica exposure contributes to this and to recognise developing and future issues such as the work on diacetyl in the coffee industry (see p24 and p39). This type of scientific investigation gives our regulators good trusted information enabling critical decisions on the actions needed to protect workers.<br/>The case study on publishing new guidance on the use of Metalworking Fluids (MWF) demonstrates the important contribution of collaborative science to improving regulation. If used inappropriately exposure to MWF mist can cause serious long-term lung disease and it was recognised that users needed help to control this risk. HSE scientists and regulators worked with industry stakeholders to produce new free guidance which reflects changes in scientific understanding in a practical easy to use guide. As well as enabling users to better manage the risks and as a bonus likely save money it has assisted regulation by providing clear benchmarks for all to judge control against. An excellent example of science contributing to controlling serious health risks (see p22).<br/>These case studies are excellent examples of how science contributes to reducing risk. Hopefully they will inspire you to think about how risk in your workplace could be improved and where further work might be needed.

This White Paper has been commissioned by the UK Hydrogen and Fuel Cell (H2FC) SUPERGEN Hub to examine the roles and potential benefits of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies within each sector of future energy systems and the transition infrastructure that is required to achieve these roles. The H2FC SUPERGEN Hub is an inclusive network encompassing the entire UK hydrogen and fuel cells research community with around 100 UK-based academics supported by key stakeholders from industry and government. It is funded by the UK EPSRC research council as part of the RCUK Energy Programme. This paper is the third of four that were published over the lifetime of the Hub with the others examining: (i) low-carbon heat; (ii) energy security; and (iv) economic impacts.

• Hydrogen and fuel cells are now being deployed commercially for mainstream applications.
• Hydrogen can play a major role alongside electricity in the low-carbon economy.
• Hydrogen technologies can support low-carbon electricity systems dominated by intermittent renewables and/or electric heating demand.
• The hydrogen economy is not necessary for hydrogen and fuel cells to flourish.

This is the second document of a two-part review of the Fourth Carbon Budget which covers 2023 to 2027. The Fourth Carbon Budget agreed by the Government in June 2011 was scheduled to be reviewed in 2014. The first part of the review is available here: The Fourth Carbon Budget Review – part 1: assessment of climate risk and the international response (November 2013).<br/>According to the Climate Change Act 2008 carbon budgets can only be altered if there is a significant change in circumstances upon which the budget was set. Any such change in circumstances must be demonstrated through evidence and analysis.<br/>The Fourth Carbon Budget Review – part 2 considers the impacts of meeting the 2023-2027 budget. The review concludes that the impacts are small and manageable and identifies broader benefits associated with meeting the fourth carbon budget including: improved energy security improved air quality and reduced noise pollution.

In this report Quantifying Greenhouse Gas Emissions the Committee on Climate Change assesses how the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions are quantified where uncertainties lie and the implications for setting carbon budgets and measuring progress against climate change targets. The report finds that:

• The methodology for constructing the UK’s greenhouse gas inventory is rigorous but the process for identifying improvements could be strengthened.
• There is high confidence over large parts of the inventory. A small number of sectors contribute most to uncertainty and research efforts should be directed at improving these estimates.
• UK greenhouse gas emissions for 2014 were within ±3% of the estimated level with 95% confidence which is a low level of uncertainty by international standards.
• Methodology revisions in recent years have tended to increase estimated emissions but these changes have been within uncertainty margins.
• Statistical uncertainty in the current greenhouse gas inventory is low but could rise in future.
• Uncertainty also arises from sources of emissions not currently included in the inventory and from potential changes to IPCC guidelines.
• Independent external validation of greenhouse gas emissions is important and new monitoring techniques should be encouraged.
• Government should continue to monitor consumption-based greenhouse gas estimates and support continued research to improve methodology and reduce uncertainty in these estimates.

The Scottish Act sets a long-term target to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by at least 80% in 2050 relative to 1990 with an interim target to reduce emissions by 42% in 2020. Secondary legislation passed in October 2010 and October 2011 also set a series of annual emission reduction targets for 2010 to 2022 and 2023 to 2027 respectively. We advised the Scottish Government on annual targets for the period 2028 to 2032 in March 2016 and July 2016.<br/>The report reveals that Scotland’s annual emissions reduction target for 2014 was met with gross Scottish greenhouse gas emissions including international aviation and shipping falling by 8.6% in 2014. This compares to a 7.3% fall for the UK as a whole. Since 1990 gross Scottish emissions have fallen nearly 40% compared to nearly 33% at a UK level.

This is the eighth annual Progress Report to the Scottish Parliament required by Scottish Ministers under the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009. It assesses Scotland’s progress in achieving its legislated targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.<br/>Overall greenhouse gas emissions reduced by 3% in 2017 compared to a 10% fall in 2016. The fall was again led by the power sector due in large part to Scotland’s first full year of coal-free electricity generation. Recent performance in other sectors shows only incremental improvement at best and unless emissions reductions are delivered economy-wide Scotland is at risk of missing its new interim target of a 56% reduction in emissions by 2020. Setting a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions target for 2045 represents a step-change in ambition for Scotland. The Scottish Parliament’s 2030 target to reduce emissions by 75% will be extremely challenging to meet. It must be backed up by steps to drive meaningful emissions reductions immediately.<br/>Scotland’s Programme for Government 2019-20 alongside other recent policies sent a clear signal that the Scottish Government is taking its more ambitious targets seriously but there is much more to do.Scotland’s ability to deliver its net-zero target is contingent on action taken in the UK and vice versa.