Policy & Socio-Economics

Global warming and fossil fuel depletion have necessitated alternative sources of energy. Biomass is a promising fuel source because it is renewable and can be carbon negative even without carbon capture and storage. This study considers biomass as a clean renewable source for transportation fuels. An Aspen Plus process simulation model was built of a biomass gasification biorefinery with Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis of liquid fuels. A GaBi life cycle assessment model was also built to determine the environmental impacts using a cradle-to-grave approach. Three different product pathways were considered: Fischer-Tropsch synthetic diesel hydrogen and electricity. An offgas autothermal reformer with a recycle loop was used to increase FT product yield. Different configurations and combinations of biorefinery products are considered. The thermal efficiency and cost of production of the FT liquid fuels are analyzed using the Aspen Plus process model. The greenhouse gas emissions profitability and mileage per kg biomass were compared. The mileage traveled per kilogram biomass was calculated using modern (2019-2021) diesel electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The overall thermal efficiency was found to be between 20-41% for FT fuels production between 58-61% for hydrogen production and around 25-26% for electricity production for this biorefinery. The lowest production costs were found to be $3.171/gal of FT diesel ($24.304/GJ) $1.860/kg of H2 ($15.779/GJ) and 13.332¢/kWh for electricity ($37.034/GJ). All configurations except one had net negative carbon emissions over the life cycle of the biomass. This is because carbon is absorbed in the trees initially and some of the carbon is sequestered in ash and unconverted char from the gasification process furthermore co-producing electricity while making transportation fuel offsets even more carbon emissions. Compared to current market rates for diesel hydrogen and electricity the most profitable biorefinery product is shown to be hydrogen while also having net negative carbon emissions. FT diesel can also be profitable but with a slimmer profit margin (not considering government credits) and still having net negative carbon emissions. However our biorefinery could not compete with current commercial electricity prices in the US. As oil hydrogen and electricity prices continue to change the economics of the biorefinery and the choice product will change as well. For our current biorefinery model hydrogen seems to be the most promising product choice for profit while staying carbon negative while FT diesel is the best choice for sequestering the most carbon and still being profitable. All code and data are given.

This Hydrogen Roadmap aims to identify the challenges and opportunities for the full development of renewable hydrogen in Spain providing a series of measures aimed at boosting investment action taking advantage of the European consensus on the role that this energy vector should play in the context of green recovery. This Roadmap is therefore aligned with the 2021 Annual Sustainable Growth Strategy published by the European Commission which identifies the future Recovery and Resilience Mechanism as an opportunity to create emblematic areas of action at European level making two of these areas of action (Power up and Recharge and Refuel) an explicit mention of the development of renewable hydrogen in the European Union.

This concept study extends the power-to-gas approach to small combined heat and power devices in buildings that alternately operate fuel cells and electrolysis. While the heat is used to replace existing fossil heaters on-site the power is either fed into the grid or consumed via heatcoupled electrolysis to balance the grid power at the nearest grid node. In detail the power demand of Germany is simulated as a snapshot for 2030 with 100% renewable sourcing. The standard load profile is supplemented with additional loads from 100% electric heat pumps 100% electric cars and a fully electrified industry. The renewable power is then scaled up to match this demand with historic hourly yield data from 2018/2019. An optimal mix of photovoltaics wind biomass and hydropower is calculated in respect to estimated costs in 2030. Hydrogen has recently entered a large number of national energy roadmaps worldwide. However most of them address the demands of heavy industry and heavy transport which are more difficult to electrify. Hydrogen is understood to be a substitute for fossil fuels which would be continuously imported from non-industrialized countries. This paper focuses on hydrogen as a storage technology in an all-electric system. The target is to model the most cost-effective end-to-end use of local renewable energies including excess hydrogen for the industry. The on-site heat coupling will be the principal argument for decentralisation. Essentially it flattens the future peak from massive usage of electric heat pumps during cold periods. However transition speed will either push the industry or the prosumer approach in front. Batteries are tried out as supplementary components for short-term storage due to their higher round trip efficiencies. Switching the gas net to hydrogen is considered as an alternative to overcome the slow power grid expansions. Further decentral measures are examined in respect to system costs.

In response to the exceptional circumstances stemming from the coronavirus pandemic the annual IEA Global Energy Review has expanded its coverage to include real-time analysis of developments to date in 2020 and possible directions for the rest of the year. In addition to reviewing 2019 energy and CO2 emissions data by fuel and country for this section of the Global Energy Review we have tracked energy use by country and fuel over the past three months and in some cases – such as electricity – in real time. Some tracking will continue on a weekly basis. The uncertainty surrounding public health the economy and hence energy over the rest of 2020 is unprecedented. This analysis therefore not only charts a possible path for energy use and CO2 emissions in 2020 but also highlights the many factors that could lead to differing outcomes. We draw key lessons on how to navigate this once-in-a-century crisis.

Link to Document on IEA websitte

Heating and hot water for UK buildings make up 40% of our energy consumption and 20% of our greenhouse gas emissions. It will be necessary to largely eliminate these emissions by around 2050 to meet the targets in the Climate Change Act and to maintain the UK contribution to international action under the Paris Agreement.<br/>Progress to date has stalled. The Government needs a credible new strategy and a much stronger policy framework for buildings decarbonisation over the next three decades. Many of the changes that will reduce emissions will also contribute toward modern affordable comfortable homes and workplaces and can be delivered alongside a major expansion in the number of homes. This report considers that challenge and sets out possible steps to meet it.

The following report accompanies the Committee on Climate Change’s 2017 report on energy prices and bills. It was written by Ricardo Energy and Environment.

The report provides an analysis of the opportunities to UK businesses to supply global markets with low carbon materials and goods and services. The report considers: the position of the current UK low carbon economy the size of the market opportunity for UK businesses in 2030 and 2050 the barriers to UK business capturing a larger share of the global market the opportunity to increase the UK’s share of future global markets

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The Paris Agreement marks a significant positive step in global action to tackle climate change. This report considers the domestic actions the UK Government should take as part of a fair contribution to the aims of the Agreement.<br/>The report concludes that the Paris Agreement is a significant step forward in global efforts to tackle climate change. It is more ambitious in its aims to limit climate change than the basis of the UK’s existing climate targets. However it is not yet appropriate to set new UK targets. Existing targets are already stretching and the priority is to take action to meet them.

At the request of the government of Japan under its G20 presidency the International Energy Agency produced this landmark report to analyse the current state of play for hydrogen and to offer guidance on its future development.

The report finds that clean hydrogen is currently enjoying unprecedented political and business momentum with the number of policies and projects around the world expanding rapidly. It concludes that now is the time to scale up technologies and bring down costs to allow hydrogen to become widely used. The pragmatic and actionable recommendations to governments and industry that are provided will make it possible to take full advantage of this increasing momentum.

Hydrogen and energy have a long shared history – powering the first internal combustion engines over 200 years ago to becoming an integral part of the modern refining industry. It is light storable energy-dense and produces no direct emissions of pollutants or greenhouse gases. But for hydrogen to make a significant contribution to clean energy transitions it needs to be adopted in sectors where it is almost completely absent such as transport buildings and power generation.

The Future of Hydrogen provides an extensive and independent survey of hydrogen that lays out where things stand now; the ways in which hydrogen can help to achieve a clean secure and affordable energy future; and how we can go about realising its potential.

Link to Document on IEA Website

Energy used for heat accounts (in terms of final consumption) for approximately 45% of our total energy needs and is critical for families to heat their homes on winter days. Decarbonising heat while still meeting peak winter heating demands is recognised as a big perhaps the biggest challenge for the industry. The way heat has been delivered in the UK has not fundamentally changed for decades and huge investments have been made in gas infrastructure assets ranging from import terminals to networks through to the appliances in our homes. Changing how heat is delivered whichever way is chosen will be a major economic and practical challenge affecting families and businesses everywhere. Any plan to decarbonise will need to address power and transport alongside heat. Our report has also looked at potential decarbonisation of power and transport as part of a whole energy system approach.

In this report we explore ways that the heat sector can be decarbonised by looking at four possible future scenarios set in 2050. These stylised scenarios present illustrative snapshots of alternative energy solutions. The scenarios do not present a detailed roadmap – indeed the future may include some elements from each. We have analysed the advantages disadvantages and costs of each scenario. All our scenarios meet the 2050 Carbon emissions targets. In this report we have concentrated on reductions to CO₂ emissions and we have not considered other greenhouse gases.

When looking out to 2050 there is huge uncertainty surrounding how gas will be consumed transported and sourced in Great Britain (GB). The extent of the climate change challenge is now widely accepted and the UK Government has introduced a legislative requirement for aggressive reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions out to 2050. In addition at European Union (EU) level a package of measures has been implemented to reduce greenhouse gas emissions improve energy efficiency and significantly increase the share of energy produced from renewable sources by 2020. These policy developments naturally raise the question of what role gas has to play in the future energy mix.



To help inform this debate the Energy Networks Association Gas Futures Group (ENA GFG) commissioned Redpoint and Trilemma to undertake a long-range scenario-based modelling study of the future utilisation of gas out to 2050 and the consequential impacts of this for gas networks. Our modelling assumptions draw heavily on the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) 2050 Pathways analysis and we consider that our conclusions are fully compatible with both DECC‟s work and current EU policy objectives.



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The CCC has established a variety of viable scenarios in which UK decarbonisation targets can be met. Each has consequences for the way in which the UK’s gas network infrastructure is utilised. This report considers the implications of decarbonisation for the future regulation of the gas grid.<br/>The CCC’s 5th Carbon Budget envisaged different scenarios that would enable the UK to meet its emissions targets for 2050. These scenarios represent holistic analyses based on internally consistent combinations of different technologies which could deliver carbon reductions across different sectors of the economy.<br/>The CCC’s scenarios incorporate projections of the demand for natural gas to 2050. The scenarios imply that the volume of throughput on the gas networks1 and the nature and location of network usage is likely to change significantly to meet emissions targets. They are also characterised by significant uncertainty.<br/>Under some decarbonisation scenarios gas networks could be re-purposed to supply hydrogen instead of natural gas meaning there would be ongoing need for network infrastructure.<br/>In other scenarios gas demand in buildings is largely replaced by electric alternatives meaning portions of the low pressure gas distribution networks could be decommissioned.<br/>Patchwork scenarios are also possible in which there is a mixture of these outcomes across the country.<br/>In this project the CCC wished to assess the potential implications for gas networks under these different demand scenarios; and evaluate the associated challenges for Government and regulatory policy. The challenge for BEIS and Ofgem is how to regulate in a way that keeps options open while uncertainty persists about the best solution for the UK; and at the same time how best to make policy and regulatory decisions which would serve to reduce this uncertainty. Both Government and Ofgem have policy and regulatory levers that they can use – and we identify and evaluate such levers in this report.

Hydrogen is recognized as a promising and attractive energy carrier to decarbonize the sectors responsible for global warming such as electricity production industry and transportation. However although hydrogen releases only water as a result of its reaction with oxygen through a fuel cell the hydrogen production pathway is currently a challenging issue since hydrogen is produced mainly from thermochemical processes (natural gas reforming coal gasification). On the other hand hydrogen production through water electrolysis has attracted a lot of attention as a means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by using low-carbon sources such as renewable energy (solar wind hydro) and nuclear energy. In this context by providing an environmentally-friendly fuel instead of the currently-used fuels (unleaded petrol gasoline kerosene) hydrogen can be used in various applications such as transportation (aircraft boat vehicle and train) energy storage industry medicine and power-to-gas. This article aims to provide an overview of the main hydrogen applications (including present and future) while examining funding and barriers to building a prosperous future for the nation by addressing all the critical challenges met in all energy sectors.

This report for the CCC by Madano and Element Energy assesses the public acceptability of two alternative low-carbon technologies for heating the home: hydrogen heating and heat pumps.

These technologies could potentially replace natural gas in many UK households as part of the government’s efforts to decrease carbon emissions in the UK.

The report’s key findings are:

• carbon emissions reduction is viewed as an important issue but there is limited awareness of the need to decarbonise household heating or the implications of switching over to low-carbon heating technologies
• acceptability of both heating technologies is limited by a lack of perceived tangible consumer benefit which has the potential to drive scepticism towards the switch over more generally
• heating technology preferences are not fixed at this stage although heat pumps appear to be the favoured option in this research studythree overarching factors were identified as influencing preferences for heating technologies.

These factors manifested differently for different people meaning that the same factor could lead one person to prefer heat pumps and another to prefer hydrogen depending on their overall heating preferences and understanding of the two technologies. The factors are:

• perceptions of the negative installation burden
• familiarity with the lived experience of using the technologies for heating
• perceptions of how well the technologies would meet modern heating needs both hydrogen heating and heat pumps face significant challenges to secure public acceptability

This is the CCC’s eighth annual report on the UK’s progress in meeting carbon budgets.

The report shows that greenhouse gas emissions have fallen rapidly in the UK power sector but that progress has stalled in other sectors such as:

• heating in buildings
• transport
• industry
• agriculture

The report also outlines the Committee’s view of key criteria for the government’s ’emissions reduction plan’ published later in 2017

Natural gas plays a central role in the UK energy system today but it is also a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The UK committed in 2008 to reduce GHG emissions by at least 80% compared to 1990 levels by 2050. In June 2019 a more ambitious target was adopted into law and the UK became the first major economy to commit to “net-zero” emissions by 2050. In this context the Energy Networks Association (ENA) commissioned Navigant to explore the role that the gas sector can play in the decarbonisation of the Great Britain (GB) energy system. In this report we demonstrate that low carbon and renewable gases can make a fundamental contribution to the decarbonisation pathway between now and 2050.

The term ‘decarbonised gas’ refers to biogases hydrogen and carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS). This strategy paper sets out how decarbonised gas can help to get net zero done by tackling the hard-to-decarbonise sectors – industry heavy transport and domestic heating – which together account for around 40% of UK greenhouse gas emissions. It also illustrates the crucial importance of supportive public opinion and sets out in detail how decarbonised gas can help to ensure that net zero is achieved with public support. The report is based on extensive quantitative and qualitative opinion research on climate change in general net zero emissions in the UK and the specific decarbonised gas solutions in homes transport and industry. The full quantitative data is contained in the Supplements tab.<br/><a href="https://www.dgalliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/DGA-Getting-Net-Zero-Done-final-May-2020.pdf"/><a href="https://www.dgalliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/DGA-Getting-Net-Zero-Done-final-May-2020.pdf"/>

This White Paper has been commissioned by the UK Hydrogen and Fuel Cell (H2FC) SUPERGEN Hub to examine the roles and potential benefits of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies in delivering energy security for the UK. The H2FC SUPERGEN Hub is an inclusive network encompassing the entire UK hydrogen and fuel cells research community with around 100 UK-based academics supported by key stakeholders from industry and government. It is funded by the UK EPSRC research council as part of the RCUK Energy Programme. This paper is the second of four that were published over the lifetime of the Hub with the others examining: (i) low-carbon heat; (iii) future energy systems; and (iv) economic impact.

• Fuel cells can contribute to UK energy system security both now and in the future.
• Hydrogen can be produced using a broad range of feedstocks and production processes including renewable electricity.
• Adopting hydrogen as an end-use fuel in the long term increases UK energy diversity.

The Energy Innovation Needs Assessment (EINA) aims to identify the key innovation needs across the UK’s energy system to inform the prioritisation of public sector investment in low-carbon innovation. Using an analytical methodology developed by the Department for Business Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) the EINA takes a system level approach and values innovations in a technology in terms of the system-level benefits a technology innovation provides. This whole system modelling in line with BEIS’s EINA methodology was delivered by the Energy Systems Catapult (ESC) using the Energy System Modelling Environment (ESMETM) as the primary modelling tool.

To support the overall prioritisation of innovation activity the EINA process analyses key technologies in more detail. These technologies are grouped together into sub-themes according to the primary role they fulfil in the energy system. For key technologies within a sub-theme innovations and business opportunities are identified. The main findings at the technology level are summarised in sub-theme reports. An overview report will combine the findings from each sub-theme to provide a broad system-level perspective and prioritisation.

This EINA analysis is based on a combination of desk research by a consortium of economic and engineering consultants and stakeholder engagement. The prioritisation of innovation and business opportunities presented is informed by a workshop organised for each sub-theme assembling key stakeholders from the academic community industry and government.

This report was commissioned prior to advice being received from the CCC on meeting a net zero target and reflects priorities to meet the previous 80% target in 2050. The newly legislated net zero target is not expected to change the set of innovation priorities rather it will make them all more valuable overall. Further work is required to assess detailed implications.

The purpose of this research was to derive promising technologies for the transport of hydrogen fuel cells thereby supporting the development of research and development policy and presenting directions for investment. We also provide researchers with information about technology that will lead the technology field in the future. Hydrogen energy as the core of carbon neutral and green energy is a major issue in changing the future industrial structure and national competitive advantage. In this study we derived promising technology at the core of future hydrogen fuel cell transportation using the published US patent and paper databases (DB). We first performed text mining and data preprocessing and then discovered promising technologies through generative topographic mapping analysis. We analyzed both the patent DB and treatise DB in parallel and compared the results. As a result two promising technologies were derived from the patent DB analysis and five were derived from the paper DB analysis.

2020: a great year for hydrogen! Among other things 2020 has been exceptional for H2 technology deployment and policy development. The European Commission’s hydrogen strategy is just one of many crowning achievements! What does the future hold?

Hydrogen when based on renewable electricity can play a key role in the transition towards CO2-neutral industrial production since its use as an energy carrier as well as a feedstock in various industrial process routes is promising. At the same time a large-scale roll-out of hydrogen for industrial use would entail substantial impacts on the energy system which can only be assessed if the regional distribution of future hydrogen demand is considered. Here we assess the technical potential of hydrogen-based technologies for energy-intensive industries in Germany. The site-specific and process-specific bottom-up calculation considers 615 individual plants at 367 sites and results in a total potential hydrogen demand of 326 TWh/a. The results are available as an open dataset. Using hydrogen for non-energy-intensive sectors as well increases the potential hydrogen demand to between 482 and 534 TWh/a for Germany - based on today’s industrial structure and production output. This assumes that fossil fuels are almost completely replaced by hydrogen for process heating and feedstocks. The resulting hydrogen demand is very unevenly distributed: a few sites account for the majority of the overall potential and similarly the bulk of demand is concentrated in a few regions with steel and chemical clusters.

Scotland’s Climate Change Plan set an ambition for emissions from buildings to be near zero by 2050 and targets 35% of domestic and 70% of non-domestic buildings’ heat to be supplied using low carbon technologies by 2032. The Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019 set a new target for emissions to be net zero by 2045 with interim targets of 75% by 2030 and 90% by 2040. The update to the Climate Change Plan will be published at the end of 2020 to reflect these new targets. The Energy Efficient Scotland programme launched in May 2018 sets out a wide range of measures to promote low carbon heating alongside energy efficiency improvements in Scotland’s buildings. Meeting these targets will require almost all households in Scotland to change the way they heat their homes. It is therefore imperative to advance our understanding of the suitability of the available low carbon heating options across Scotland’s building stock.<br/><br/>The aim of this work is to assess the suitability of low carbon heating technologies in residential buildings in Scotland. The outputs generated through this work will form a key part of the evidence base on low carbon heat which the Scottish Government will use to further develop and strengthen Scotland’s low carbon heat policy in line with the increased level of ambition of achieving Net Zero by 2045.

Only emissions-free vehicles which include battery electric (BEVs) and hydrogen fuel cell trucks (FCEVs) can provide for a credible long-term pathway towards the full decarbonisation of the road freight sector. This document lays out the methodology and assumptions which were used to calculate the total cost of ownership (TCO) of the two vehicle technologies for regional delivery and long-haul truck applications. It also discusses other criteria such as refuelling and recharging times as well as potential payload losses.

Link to Document Download on Transport & Environment website

Urgent action is needed to accelerate the pace of the global energy transition and the decarbonisation of the global economy. International shipping is a key sector of the economy as much as 90% of worldwide trade is transacted via ocean going vessels. The sector is also one of the most challenging to decarbonise.

In this context A Pathway to Decarbonise the Shipping Sector by 2050 by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) analyses the technology readiness of the renewable fuels suitable for international shipping. This report also explores the options and actions needed to progress towards a decarbonised maritime shipping sector by 2050 and seeks to identify a realistic mitigation pathway to reach the climate goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C and bringing CO2 emissions closer to net zero by mid-century.

Key messages:

• The sector’s decarbonisation strategy must involve a combination of energy efficiency and renewable fuels. Starting now the active adoption of energy efficiency measures will be critical to reduce energy demand and thus CO2 emissions in the immediate term.
• In the short term advanced biofuels will play a key role in the reduction of CO2 emissions. In the medium and long-term green hydrogen-based fuels are set to be the backbone for the sector’s decarbonisation.
• Renewable e-ammonia will play a pivotal role; where 183 million tonnes of renewable ammonia for international shipping alone will be needed by 2050 - a comparable amount to today’s ammonia global production.
• While renewable fuels production costs are currently high in the next decades renewable fuels will become cost competitive and can shield the shipping sector from the volatility that characterises the fossil fuels market.
• Taking early action is vital. Sector decarbonisation can be accelerated and ambition raised beyond the climate goals by fostering investment in the production of renewable fuels. Stakeholders need to develop broader business models and establish strategic partnerships involving energy-intensive industries as well as power suppliers and the petrochemical sector.

IRENA’s report shows that with the right plans and sufficient support the decarbonisation of the international shipping sector is viable.

There is uncertainty over how heating might practically be decarbonised in the future. This briefing provides some clarity about the possible pathways forward focusing on the next 5-10 years.<br/>Meeting the UK government’s net zero emissions goal for 2050 will only be possible by complete decarbonisation of the building stock (both existing and new).  There is uncertainty over the extent to which heating might practically be decarbonised in the future and what the optimal technologies may be. This paper provides some clarity about the pathways forward focusing on the next 5-10 years.