Policy & Socio-Economics

Hydrogen has been used as an industrial chemical for more than 100 years. Today hydrogen is used to manufacture ammonia and hence fertilizers as well as methanol and hydrogen peroxide both vital feedstocks for a wide variety of different chemical products. Furthermore in oil refineries hydrogen is used for the processing of intermediate products as well as to increase the hydrogen contents of the final products that are used propel the vehicles. However hydrogen has recently achieved new attention for its capabilities in reducing carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Producing hydrogen via low or totally carbon-free ways and using this “good” low-carbon hydrogen to replace hydrogen with a larger carbon footprint we can reduce carbon emissions. Furthermore using renewable electricity and captured carbon we can synthesise many such chemical products that are currently produced from fossil raw materials. This “Power-to-X” (P2X) is often seen as the eventual incarnation of the hydrogen economy. In addition the progress in technology both in hydrogen fuel cells and in polymer electrolyte electrolysers alike has increased their efficiencies.<br/>Furthermore production costs of renewable electricity by wind or solar power have lowered significantly. Thus cost of “good” hydrogen has also decreased markedly and production volumes are expected to increase rapidly. For these reasons many countries have raised interests in “good” hydrogen and have created roadmaps and strategies for their involvement in hydrogen. Hydrogen plays a key role also in combating climate change and reaching Finland's national goal of carbon neutrality by 2035. In recent years many clean hydrogen and P2X production methods have developed significantly and become commercially viable.<br/>This report was produced by a team of VTT experts on hydrogen and hydrogen-related technologies. The focus is in an outlook for low-carbon H2 production H2 utilization for green chemicals and fuels as well as storage transport and end-use especially during the next 10 years in Finland in connection to renewed EU regulations. This roadmap is expected to serve as the knowledge-base for further work such as shaping the hydrogen policy for Finland and determining the role of hydrogen in the national energy and climate policy.

This work dedicated to a mathematical description of energy transition scenarios consists of three main parts. The first part describes modern trends and problems of the energy sector. A large number of charts reflecting the latest updates in energy are provided. The COVID-2019 pandemic’s impacts on the energy sector are also included. The second part of the paper is dedicated to the analysis of energy consumption and the structure of the world fuel and energy balance. Furthermore a detailed description of energy-efficient technologies is given. Being important and low-carbon hydrogen is discussed including its advantages and disadvantages. The last part of the work describes the mathematical tool developed by the authors. The high availability of statistical data made it possible to identify parameters used in the algorithm with the least squares method and verify the tool. Performing several not complicated steps of the algorithm the tool allows calculating the deviation of the average global temperature of the surface atmosphere from preindustrial levels in the 21st century under different scenarios. Using the suggested mathematical description the optimal scenario that makes it possible to keep global warming at a level below 1.7 ◦C was found.

Low-carbon gases are indispensable to any energy system that is reliable clean affordable safe and is suited to spatial integration and zero-carbon hydrogen is a crucial link in that chain1. The most common element in the universe seems to have a highly bonding effect in the Netherlands – particularly as a result of the unique starting position of our country. This is made clear in the agreements of the National Climate Agreement which includes an ambitious target for hydrogen supported by a large and broad group of stakeholders. Industrial clusters and ports regard hydrogen as an indispensable part of their future and sustainability strategy. For the transport sector hydrogen (in combination with fuel cells) is crucial to achieving zero emissions transport. The agricultural sector has identified opportunities for the production of hydrogen and for its use. Cities regions and provinces are keen to get started on implementing hydrogen.<br/>The government embraces these targets and recognises the power of the framework for action demonstrated by so many parties. The focus on clean hydrogen in the Netherlands will lead to the creation of new jobs improvements to air quality and moreover is crucial to the energy transition.

Where does hydrogen fit into a global sustainable energy strategy for the 21st century as we face the enormous challenges of irreversible climate change and uncertain oil supply? This fundamental question is addressed by sketching a sustainable energy strategy that is based predominantly on renewable energy inputs and energy efficiency with hydrogen playing a crucial and substantial role. But this role is not an ex -distributed hydrogen production storage and distribution centres relying on local renewable energy sources and feedstocks would be created to avoid the need for an expensive long-distance hydrogen pipeline system. There would thus be complementary use of electricity and hydrogen as energy vectors. Importantly bulk hydrogen storage would provide the strategic energy reserve to guarantee national and global energy security in a world relying increasingly on renewable energy; and longer-term seasonal storage on electricity grids relying mainly on renewables. In the transport sector a 'horses for courses' approach is proposed in which hydrogen fuel cell vehicles would be used in road and rail vehicles requiring a range comparable to today's petrol and diesel vehicles and in coastal and international shipping while liquid hydrogen would probably have to be used in air transport. Plug-in battery electric vehicles would be reserved for shorter-trips. Energy-economic-environmental modelling is recommended as the next step to quantify the net benefits of the overall strategy outlined.

The hourly operation of Thermal Hydrogen electricity markets is modelled. The economic values for all applicable chemical commodities are quantified (syngas ammonia methanol and oxygen) and an hourly electricity model is constructed to mimic the dispatch of key technologies: bi-directional power plants dual-fuel heating systems and plug-in fuel-cell hybrid electric vehicles. The operation of key technologies determines hourly electricity prices and an optimization model adjusts the capacity to minimize electricity prices yet allow all generators to recover costs. We examine 12 cost scenarios for renewables nuclear and natural gas; the results demonstrate emissionsfree ‘energy-only’ electricity markets whose supply is largely dominated by renewables. The economic outcome is made possible in part by seizing the full supply-chain value from electrolysis (both hydrogen and oxygen) which allows an increased willingness to pay for (renewable) electricity. The wholesale electricity prices average $25–$45/ MWh or just slightly higher than the assumed levelized cost of renewable energy. This implies very competitive electricity prices particularly given the lack of need for ‘scarcity’ pricing capacity markets dedicated electricity storage or underutilized electric transmission and distribution capacity.

Global warming and fossil fuel depletion have necessitated alternative sources of energy. Biomass is a promising fuel source because it is renewable and can be carbon negative even without carbon capture and storage. This study considers biomass as a clean renewable source for transportation fuels. An Aspen Plus process simulation model was built of a biomass gasification biorefinery with Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis of liquid fuels. A GaBi life cycle assessment model was also built to determine the environmental impacts using a cradle-to-grave approach. Three different product pathways were considered: Fischer-Tropsch synthetic diesel hydrogen and electricity. An offgas autothermal reformer with a recycle loop was used to increase FT product yield. Different configurations and combinations of biorefinery products are considered. The thermal efficiency and cost of production of the FT liquid fuels are analyzed using the Aspen Plus process model. The greenhouse gas emissions profitability and mileage per kg biomass were compared. The mileage traveled per kilogram biomass was calculated using modern (2019-2021) diesel electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The overall thermal efficiency was found to be between 20-41% for FT fuels production between 58-61% for hydrogen production and around 25-26% for electricity production for this biorefinery. The lowest production costs were found to be $3.171/gal of FT diesel ($24.304/GJ) $1.860/kg of H2 ($15.779/GJ) and 13.332¢/kWh for electricity ($37.034/GJ). All configurations except one had net negative carbon emissions over the life cycle of the biomass. This is because carbon is absorbed in the trees initially and some of the carbon is sequestered in ash and unconverted char from the gasification process furthermore co-producing electricity while making transportation fuel offsets even more carbon emissions. Compared to current market rates for diesel hydrogen and electricity the most profitable biorefinery product is shown to be hydrogen while also having net negative carbon emissions. FT diesel can also be profitable but with a slimmer profit margin (not considering government credits) and still having net negative carbon emissions. However our biorefinery could not compete with current commercial electricity prices in the US. As oil hydrogen and electricity prices continue to change the economics of the biorefinery and the choice product will change as well. For our current biorefinery model hydrogen seems to be the most promising product choice for profit while staying carbon negative while FT diesel is the best choice for sequestering the most carbon and still being profitable. All code and data are given.

This Hydrogen Roadmap aims to identify the challenges and opportunities for the full development of renewable hydrogen in Spain providing a series of measures aimed at boosting investment action taking advantage of the European consensus on the role that this energy vector should play in the context of green recovery. This Roadmap is therefore aligned with the 2021 Annual Sustainable Growth Strategy published by the European Commission which identifies the future Recovery and Resilience Mechanism as an opportunity to create emblematic areas of action at European level making two of these areas of action (Power up and Recharge and Refuel) an explicit mention of the development of renewable hydrogen in the European Union.

This concept study extends the power-to-gas approach to small combined heat and power devices in buildings that alternately operate fuel cells and electrolysis. While the heat is used to replace existing fossil heaters on-site the power is either fed into the grid or consumed via heatcoupled electrolysis to balance the grid power at the nearest grid node. In detail the power demand of Germany is simulated as a snapshot for 2030 with 100% renewable sourcing. The standard load profile is supplemented with additional loads from 100% electric heat pumps 100% electric cars and a fully electrified industry. The renewable power is then scaled up to match this demand with historic hourly yield data from 2018/2019. An optimal mix of photovoltaics wind biomass and hydropower is calculated in respect to estimated costs in 2030. Hydrogen has recently entered a large number of national energy roadmaps worldwide. However most of them address the demands of heavy industry and heavy transport which are more difficult to electrify. Hydrogen is understood to be a substitute for fossil fuels which would be continuously imported from non-industrialized countries. This paper focuses on hydrogen as a storage technology in an all-electric system. The target is to model the most cost-effective end-to-end use of local renewable energies including excess hydrogen for the industry. The on-site heat coupling will be the principal argument for decentralisation. Essentially it flattens the future peak from massive usage of electric heat pumps during cold periods. However transition speed will either push the industry or the prosumer approach in front. Batteries are tried out as supplementary components for short-term storage due to their higher round trip efficiencies. Switching the gas net to hydrogen is considered as an alternative to overcome the slow power grid expansions. Further decentral measures are examined in respect to system costs.

In response to the exceptional circumstances stemming from the coronavirus pandemic the annual IEA Global Energy Review has expanded its coverage to include real-time analysis of developments to date in 2020 and possible directions for the rest of the year. In addition to reviewing 2019 energy and CO2 emissions data by fuel and country for this section of the Global Energy Review we have tracked energy use by country and fuel over the past three months and in some cases – such as electricity – in real time. Some tracking will continue on a weekly basis. The uncertainty surrounding public health the economy and hence energy over the rest of 2020 is unprecedented. This analysis therefore not only charts a possible path for energy use and CO2 emissions in 2020 but also highlights the many factors that could lead to differing outcomes. We draw key lessons on how to navigate this once-in-a-century crisis.

Link to Document on IEA websitte

Heating and hot water for UK buildings make up 40% of our energy consumption and 20% of our greenhouse gas emissions. It will be necessary to largely eliminate these emissions by around 2050 to meet the targets in the Climate Change Act and to maintain the UK contribution to international action under the Paris Agreement.<br/>Progress to date has stalled. The Government needs a credible new strategy and a much stronger policy framework for buildings decarbonisation over the next three decades. Many of the changes that will reduce emissions will also contribute toward modern affordable comfortable homes and workplaces and can be delivered alongside a major expansion in the number of homes. This report considers that challenge and sets out possible steps to meet it.