Norway
Techno-economic Analysis of Freight Railway Electrification by Overhead Line, Hydrogen and Batteries: Case Studies in Norway and USA
Aug 2019
Publication
Two non-electrified railway lines one in Norway and the other in the USA are analysed for their potential to be electrified with overhead line equipment batteries hydrogen or hydrogen-battery hybrid powertrains. The energy requirements are established with single-train simulations including the altitude profiles of the lines air and rolling resistances and locomotive tractive-effort curves. The composition of the freight trains in terms of the number of locomotives battery wagons hydrogen wagons etc. is also calculated by the same model. The different technologies are compared by the criteria of equivalent annual costs benefit–cost ratio payback period and up-front investment based on the estimated techno-economic parameters for years 2020 2030 and 2050. The results indicate the potential of batteries and fuel cells to replace diesel on rail lines with low traffic volumes.
How Do Dissolved Gases Affect the Sonochemical Process of Hydrogen Production: An Overview of Thermodynamic and Mechanistic Effects – On the “Hot Spot Theory”
Dec 2020
Publication
Although most of researchers agree on the elementary reactions behind the sonolytic formation of molecular hydrogen (H2) from water namely the radical attack of H2O and H2O2 and the free radicals recombination several recent papers ignore the intervention of the dissolved gas molecules in the kinetic pathways of free radicals and hence may wrongly assess the effect of dissolved gases on the sonochemical production of hydrogen. One may fairly ask to which extent is it acceptable to ignore the role of the dissolved gas and its eventual decomposition inside the acoustic cavitation bubble? The present opinion paper discusses numerically the ways in which the nature of dissolved gas i.e. N2 O2 Ar and air may influence the kinetics of sonochemical hydrogen formation. The model evaluates the extent of direct physical effects i.e. dynamics of bubble oscillation and collapse events if any against indirect chemical effects i.e. the chemical reactions of free radicals formation and consequently hydrogen emergence it demonstrates the improvement in the sonochemical hydrogen production under argon and sheds light on several misinterpretations reported in earlier works due to wrong assumptions mainly related to initial conditions. The paper also highlights the role of dissolved gases in the nature of created cavitation and hence the eventual bubble population phenomena that may prevent the achievement of the sonochemical activity. This is particularly demonstrated experimentally using a 20 kHz Sinaptec transducer and a Photron SA 5 high speed camera in the case of CO2-saturated water where degassing bubbles are formed instead of transient cavitation.
In the Green? Perceptions of Hydrogen Production Methods Among the Norwegian Public
Feb 2023
Publication
This article presents findings from a representative survey fielded through the Norwegian Citizen Panel examining public perceptions of hydrogen fuel and its different production methods. Although several countries including Norway have strategies to increase the production of hydrogen fuel our results indicate that hydrogen as an energy carrier and its different production methods are still unknown to a large part of the public. A common misunderstanding seems to be confusing ‘hydrogen fuel’ in general with environmentally friendly ‘green hydrogen’. Results from a survey experiment (N = 1906) show that production method is important for public acceptance. On a five-point acceptance scale respondents score on average 3.9 for ‘green’ hydrogen which is produced from renewable energy sources. The level of acceptance is significantly lower for ‘blue’ (3.2) and ‘grey’ (2.3) hydrogen when respondents are informed that these are produced from coal oil or natural gas. Public support for hydrogen fuel in general as well as the different production methods is also related to their level of worry about climate change gender and political affiliation. Widespread misunderstandings regarding ‘green’ hydrogen production could potentially fuel public resistance as new ‘blue’ or ‘grey’ projects develop. Our results indicate a need for clearer communication from the government and developers regarding production methods to avoid distrust and potential public backfire.
Pore-scale Dynamics for Underground Porous Media Hydrogen Storage
Mar 2022
Publication
Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) has been launched as a catalyst to the low-carbon energy transitions. The limited understanding of the subsurface processes is a major obstacle for rapid and widespread UHS implementation. We use microfluidics to experimentally describe pore-scale multiphase hydrogen flow in an aquifer storage scenario. In a series of drainage-imbibition experiments we report the effect of capillary number on hydrogen saturations displacement/trapping mechanisms dissolution kinetics and contact angle hysteresis. We find that the hydrogen saturation after injection (drainage) increases with increasing capillary number. During hydrogen withdrawal (imbibition) two distinct mechanisms control the displacement and residual trapping – I1 and I2 imbibition mechanisms respectively. Local hydrogen dissolution kinetics show dependency on injection rate and hydrogen cluster size. Dissolved global hydrogen concentration corresponds up to 28 % of reported hydrogen solubility indicating pore-scale non-equilibrium dissolution. Contact angles show hysteresis and vary between 17 and 56°. Our results provide key UHS experimental data to improve understanding of hydrogen multiphase flow behavior.
Renewable Hydrogen Supply Chains: A Planning Matrix and an Agenda for Future Research
Oct 2022
Publication
Worldwide energy systems are experiencing a transition to more sustainable systems. According to the Hydrogen Roadmap Europe (FCH EU 2019) hydrogen will play an important role in future energy systems due to its ability to support sustainability goals and will account for approximately 13% of the total energy mix in the coming future. Correct hydrogen supply chain (HSC) planning is therefore vital to enable a sustainable transition. However due to the operational characteristics of the HSC its planning is complicated. Renewable hydrogen supply can be diverse: Hydrogen can be produced de-centrally with renewables such as wind and solar energy or centrally by using electricity generated from a hydro power plant with a large volume. Similarly demand for hydrogen can also be diverse with many new applications such as fuels for fuel cell electrical vehicles and electricity generation feedstocks in industrial processes and heating for buildings. The HSC consists of various stages (production storage distribution and applications) in different forms with strong interdependencies which further increase HSC complexity. Finally planning of an HSC depends on the status of hydrogen adoption and market development and on how mature technologies are and both factors are characterised by high uncertainties. Directly adapting the traditional approaches of supply chain planning for HSCs is insufficient. Therefore in this study we develop a planning matrix with related planning tasks leveraging a systematic literature review to cope with the characteristics of HSCs. We focus only on renewable hydrogen due to its relevance to the future low-carbon economy. Furthermore we outline an agenda for future research from the supply chain management perspective in order to support HSC development considering the different phases of HSCs adoption and market development.
Quantitative Risk Analysis of Scaled-up Hydrogen Facilities
Sep 2021
Publication
Development of hydrogen facilities such as hydrogen refuelling stations (HRS) at scale is a fine balance between economy and safety where an optimal solution would both prevent showstoppers due to cost of increased safety measures and prevent showstoppers due to hydrogen accidents. A detailed Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) methodology is presented where the aim is to establish the total risk of the facility and use it to find the right level of safety features such as blast walls and layout. With upscaled hydrogen facilities comes larger area footprints and more potential leak points. These effects will cause increased possible consequence in terms of vapour cloud explosions and increased leak frequencies. Both effects contributing negative to the total risk of the hydrogen facility. At the same time as the number of such facilities is increasing rapidly the frequency of incidents can also increase. A risk-based approach is employed where inherently safe solutions is investigated and cost efficient and acceptable solutions can be established. The present QRA uses well established tools such as SAFETI FLACS and Express which are fitted for hydrogen risks. By using the established Explosion Risk Analysis tool Express the explosion risk inside the station can be found. By using CFD tools actively one can point at physical risk drivers such as equipment layout that can minimize gas cloud build-up on the station. The explosion simulations are further used to find the effects of e.g. blast wall on the pressures affecting on people on the other side of the wall. This is used together with the results from the SAFETI analysis to develop risk contours around the facility. Current standardized safety distances are discussed by considering the effects of scaling and risk drivers on the safety distances. The methodology can be used to develop certain requirement for how hydrogen facilities should be built inherently safe and in cost-efficient ways.
Energy Management Strategies for a Zero-emission Hybrid Domestic Ferry
Oct 2021
Publication
The paper presents three approaches for the sizing and control of a maritime hybrid power-plant equipped with proton exchange membrane fuel cells and batteries. The study focuses on three different power-plant configurations including the energy management strategy and the power-plant component sizing. The components sizing is performed following the definition of the energy management strategy using the sequential optimization approach. These configurations are tested using a dynamic model developed in Simulink. The simulations are carried out to validate the technical feasibility of each configuration for maritime use. Each energy management strategy is developed to allow for the optimization of a chosen set of parameters such as hydrogen consumption and fuel cell degradation. It is observed that in the hybrid power-plant optimization there are always trade-offs and the optimization should be carried out by prioritizing primary factors the ship owner considers most important for day-to-day operations.
Carbon-negative Hydrogen from Biomass Using Gas Switching Integrated Gasification: Techno-economic Assessment
Sep 2022
Publication
Ambitious decarbonization pathways to limit the global temperature rise to well below 2 ◦C will require largescale CO2 removal from the atmosphere. One promising avenue for achieving this goal is hydrogen production from biomass with CO2 capture. The present study investigates the techno-economic prospects of a novel biomass-to-hydrogen process configuration based on the gas switching integrated gasification (GSIG) concept. GSIG applies the gas switching combustion principle to indirectly combust off-gas fuel from the pressure swing adsorption unit in tubular reactors integrated into the gasifier to improve efficiency and CO2 capture. In this study these efficiency gains facilitated a 5% reduction in the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) relative to conventional O2-blown fluidized bed gasification with pre-combustion CO2 capture even though the larger and more complex gasifier cancelled out the capital cost savings from avoiding the air separation and CO2 capture units. The economic assessment also demonstrated that advanced gas treatment using a tar cracker instead of a direct water wash can further reduce the LCOH by 12% and that the CO2 prices in excess of 100 €/ton consistent with ambitious decarbonization pathways will make this negative-emission technology economically highly attractive. Based on these results further research into the GSIG concept to facilitate more efficient utilization of limited biomass resources can be recommended.
Moving Toward the Low-carbon Hydrogen Economy: Experiences and Key Learnings from National Case Studies
Sep 2022
Publication
The urgency to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050 as first presented by the IPCC special report on 1.5°C Global Warming has spurred renewed interest in hydrogen to complement electrification for widespread decarbonization of the economy. We present reflections on estimates of future hydrogen demand optimization of infrastructure for hydrogen production transport and storage development of viable business cases and environmental impact evaluations using life cycle assessments. We highlight challenges and opportunities that are common across studies of the business cases for hydrogen in Germany the UK the Netherlands Switzerland and Norway. The use of hydrogen in the industrial sector is an important driver and could incentivise large-scale hydrogen value chains. In the long-term hydrogen becomes important also for the transport sector. Hydrogen production from natural gas with capture and permanent storage of the produced CO2 (CCS) enables large-scale hydrogen production in the intermediate future and is complementary to hydrogen from renewable power. Furthermore timely establishment of hydrogen and CO2 infrastructures serves as an anchor to support the deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies such as direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) and biohydrogen production with CCS. Significant public support is needed to ensure coordinated planning governance and the establishment of supportive regulatory frameworks which foster the growth of hydrogen markets.
A Hydrogen-Fueled Micro Gas Turbine Unit for Carbon-Free Heat and Power Generation
Oct 2022
Publication
The energy transition with transformation into predominantly renewable sources requires technology development to secure power production at all times despite the intermittent nature of the renewables. Micro gas turbines (MGTs) are small heat and power generation units with fast startup and load-following capability and are thereby suitable backup for the future’s decentralized power generation systems. Due to MGTs’ fuel flexibility a range of fuels from high-heat to lowheat content could be utilized with different greenhouse gas generation. Developing micro gas turbines that can operate with carbon-free fuels will guarantee carbon-free power production with zero CO2 emission and will contribute to the alleviation of the global warming problem. In this paper the redevelopment of a standard 100-kW micro gas turbine to run with methane/hydrogen blended fuel is presented. Enabling micro gas turbines to run with hydrogen blended fuels has been pursued by researchers for decades. The first micro gas turbine running with pure hydrogen was developed in Stavanger Norway and launched in May 2022. This was achieved through a collaboration between the University of Stavanger (UiS) and the German Aerospace Centre (DLR). This paper provides an overview of the project and reports the experimental results from the engine operating with methane/hydrogen blended fuel with various hydrogen content up to 100%. During the development process the MGT’s original combustor was replaced with an innovative design to deal with the challenges of burning hydrogen. The fuel train was replaced with a mixing unit new fuel valves and an additional controller that enables the required energy input to maintain the maximum power output independent of the fuel blend specification. This paper presents the test rig setup and the preliminary results of the test campaign which verifies the capability of the MGT unit to support intermittent renewable generation with minimum greenhouse gas production. Results from the MGT operating with blended methane/hydrogen fuel are provided in the paper. The hydrogen content varied from 50% to 100% (volume-based) and power outputs between 35 kW to 100kW were tested. The modifications of the engine mainly the new combustor fuel train valve settings and controller resulted in a stable operation of the MGT with NOx emissions below the allowed limits. Running the engine with pure hydrogen at full load has resulted in less than 25 ppm of NOx emissions with zero carbon-based greenhouse gas production.
Pore-scale Study of Microbial Hydrogen Consumption and Wettability Alteration During Underground Hydrogen Storage
Feb 2023
Publication
Hydrogen can be a renewable energy carrier and is suggested to store renewable energy and mitigate carbon dioxide emissions. Subsurface storage of hydrogen in salt caverns deep saline formations and depleted oil/gas reservoirs would help to overcome imbalances between supply and demand of renewable energy. Hydrogen however is one of the most important electron donors for many subsurface microbial processes including methanogenesis sulfate reduction and acetogenesis. These processes cause hydrogen loss and changes of reservoir properties during geological hydrogen storage operations. Here we report the results of a typical halophilic sulfate-reducing bacterium growing in a microfluidic pore network saturated with hydrogen gas at 35 bar and 37°C. Test duration is 9 days. We observed a significant loss of H2 from microbial consumption after 2 days following injection into a microfluidic device. The consumption rate decreased over time as the microbial activity declined in the pore network. The consumption rate is influenced profoundly by the surface area of H2 bubbles and microbial activity. Microbial growth in the silicon pore network was observed to change the surface wettability from a water-wet to a neutral-wet state. Due to the coupling effect of H2 consumption by microbes and wettability alteration the number of disconnected H2 bubbles in the pore network increased sharply over time. These results may have significant implications for hydrogen recovery and gas injectivity. First pore-scale experimental results reveal the impacts of subsurface microbial growth on H2 in storage which are useful to estimate rapidly the risk of microbial growth during subsurface H2 storage. Second microvisual experiments provide critical observations of bubble-liquid interfacial area and reaction rate that are essential to the modeling that is needed to make long-term predictions. Third results help us to improve the selection criteria for future storage sites.
Does Time Matter? A Multi-level Assessment of Delayed Energy Transitions and Hydrogen Pathways in Norway
Mar 2023
Publication
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has undeniably disrupted the EU's energy system and created a window of opportunity for an acceleration of the low-carbon energy transition in Europe. As the trading bloc's biggest gas supplier Norway faces the imminent threat of fast-depleting gas reserves and declining value for its exports. Norway is trying to beat the clock by aggressively exploring more petroleum therefore delaying its energy transition. In anticipation of the future drop in gas prices Norway is counting on blue hydrogen to valorise its gas resources before gradually shifting to green hydrogen export. Against this background this article seeks to understand how changes in the EU's energy landscape have affected the energy export sector and low-carbon hydrogen export developments in Norway from a multi-level perspective. Using the exploratory scenario approach the article assesses the implications of the different petroleum exploration outcomes on the development of the low-carbon hydrogen export market in Norway. The findings show that despite gas discoveries there is an urgent need for a phase-out plan for the Norwegian petroleum sector. For low-carbon hydrogen to play an important role in Norway's energy transition time is of the essence and action needs to be taken during this window of opportunity. An industrial sector and its value chain could take 25 years to transform which means that actions and policies for a full transformation pathway need to take place in Norway by 2025 to be ready for a climate-neutral Europe in 2050.
Underground Hydrogen Storage (UHS) in Natural Storage Sites: A Perspective of Subsurface Characterization and Monitoring
Jan 2024
Publication
With the long-standing efforts of green transition in our society underground hydrogen storage (UHS) has emerged as a viable solution to buffering seasonal fluctuations of renewable energy supplies and demands. Like operations in hydrocarbon production and geological CO2 storage a successful UHS project requires a good understanding of subsurface formations while having different operational objectives and practical challenges. Similar to the situations in hydrocarbon production and geological CO2 storage in UHS problems the information of subsurface formations at the field level cannot be obtained through direct measurements due to the resulting high costs. As such there is a need for subsurface characterization and monitoring at the field scale which uses a certain history matching algorithm to calibrate a numerical subsurface model based on available field data. Whereas subsurface characterization and monitoring have been widely used in hydrocarbon production activities for a better understanding of hydrocarbon reservoirs to the best of our knowledge at present it appears to be a relatively less touched area in UHS problems. This work aims to narrow this noticed gap and investigates the use of an ensemble-based workflow for subsurface characterization and monitoring in a 3D UHS case study. Numerical results in this case study indicate that the ensemble-based workflow works reasonably well while also identifying some particular challenges that would be relevant to real-world problems.
Hydrogen Informed Gurson Model for Hydrogen Embrittlement Simulation
Jul 2019
Publication
Hydrogen-microvoid interactions were studied via unit cell analyses with different hydrogen concentrations. The absolute failure strain decreases with hydrogen concentration but the failure loci were found to follow the same trend dependent only on stress triaxiality in other words the effects of geometric constraint and hydrogen on failure are decoupled. Guided by the decoupling principle a hydrogen informed Gurson model is proposed. This model is the first practical hydrogen embrittlement simulation tool based on the hydrogen enhanced localized plasticity (HELP) mechanism. It introduces only one additional hydrogen related parameter into the Gurson model and is able to capture hydrogen enhanced internal necking failure of microvoids with accuracy; its parameter calibration procedure is straightforward and cost efficient for engineering purpose
CFD Modelling of Hydrogen and Hydrogen-methane Explosions - Analysis of Varying Concentration and Reduced Oxygen Atmospheres
Feb 2023
Publication
This paper evaluates the predictive capabilities of the advanced consequence model FLACS-CFD for deflagrations involving hydrogen. Two modelling approaches are presented: the extensively validated model system originally developed for hydrocarbons included in FLACS-CFD 22.1 and a Markstein number dependent model implemented in the in-house version FLACS-CFD 22.1 IH. The ability of the models to predict the overpressure and the flame arrival time for scenarios with different concentrations of hydrogen and thus different Lewis and Markstein numbers is assessed. Furthermore the effect of adding methane or nitrogen on overpressure for different regimes of premixed combustion are investigated. The validation dataset includes deflagrations in the open or in congested open areas and vented deflagrations in empty or congested enclosures. The overpressure predictions by FLACS-CFD 22.1 IH are found to be more accurate than those obtained with FLACS-CFD 22.1 for scenarios with varying hydrogen concentrations and/or added nitrogen or methane in the mixture. The predictions by FLACS-CFD 22.1 IH for lean hydrogen mixtures are within a factor of 2 of the values observed in the experiments. Further development of the model is needed for more accurate prediction of deflagrations involving rich hydrogen mixtures as well as scenarios with other fuels and/or conditions where the initial pressure or temperature deviate significantly from ambient conditions.
Microfluidic Storage Capacity and Residual Trapping During Cyclic Injections: Implications for Underground Storage
Apr 2023
Publication
Long-term and large-scale H2 storage is vital for a sustainable H2 economy. Research in underground H2 storage (UHS) in porous media is emerging but the understanding of H2 reconnection and recovery mechanisms under cyclic loading is not yet adequate. This paper reports a qualitative and quantitative investigation of H2 reconnection and recovery mechanisms in repeated injection-withdrawal cycles. Here we use microfluidics to experimentally investigate up to 5 cycles of H2 injection and withdrawal under a range of injection rates at shallow reservoir storage conditions. We find that H2 storage capacities increase with increasing injection rate and range between ~10% and 60%. The residual H2 saturation is in the same range between cycles (30e40%) but its distribution in the pore space visually appears to be hysteretic. In most cases the residually trapped H2 reconnects in the subsequent injection cycle predominantly in proximity to the large pore clusters. Our results provide valuable experimental data to advance the understanding of multiple H2 injection cycles in UHS schemes.
System-friendly Process Design: Optimizing Blue Hydrogen Production for Future Energy Systems
Aug 2022
Publication
While the effects of ongoing cost reductions in renewables batteries and electrolyzers on future energy systems have been extensively investigated the effects of significant advances in CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technologies have received much less attention. This research gap is addressed via a long-term (2050) energy system model loosely based on Germany yielding four main findings. First CCS-enabled pathways offer the greatest benefits in the hydrogen sector where hydrogen prices can be reduced by two-thirds relative to a scenario without CCS. Second advanced blue hydrogen technologies can reduce total system costs by 12% and enable negative CO2 emissions due to higher efficiencies and CO2 capture ratios. Third co-gasification of coal and biomass emerged as an important enabler of these promising results allowing efficient exploitation of limited biomass resources to achieve negative emissions and limit the dependence on imported natural gas. Finally CCS decarbonization pathways can practically and economically incorporate substantial shares of renewable energy to reduce fossil fuel dependence. Such diversification of primary energy inputs increases system resilience to the broad range of socio-techno-economic challenges facing the energy transition. In conclusion balanced blue-green pathways offer many benefits and deserve serious consideration in the global decarbonization effort.
Optimal Renewable Energy Distribution Between Gasifier and Electrolyzer for Syngas Generation in a Power and Biomass-to-Liquid Fuel Process
Jan 2022
Publication
By adding energy as hydrogen to the biomass-to-liquid (BtL) process several published studies have shown that carbon efficiency can be increased substantially. Hydrogen can be produced from renewable electrical energy through the electrolysis of water or steam. Adding high-temperature thermal energy to the gasifier will also increase the overall carbon efficiency. Here an economic criterion is applied to find the optimal distribution of adding electrical energy directly to the gasifier as opposed to the electrolysis unit. Three different technologies for electrolysis are applied: solid oxide steam electrolysis (SOEC) alkaline water electrolysis (AEL) and proton exchange membrane (PEM). It is shown that the addition of part of the renewable energy to the gasifier using electric heaters is always beneficial and that the electrolysis unit operating costs are a significant portion of the costs. With renewable electricity supplied at a cost of 50 USD/MWh and a capital cost of 1500 USD/kW installed SOEC the operating costs of electric heaters and SOEC account for more than 70% of the total costs. The energy efficiency of the electrolyzer is found to be more important than the capital cost. The optimal amount of energy added to the gasifier is about 37–39% of the energy in the biomass feed. A BtL process using renewable hydrogen imports at 2.5 USD/kg H2 or SOEC for hydrogen production at reduced electricity prices gives the best values for the economic objective.
Decarbonizing the European Energy System in the Absence of Russian Gas: Hydrogen Uptake and Carbon Capture Developments in the Power, Heat and Industry Sectors
Dec 2023
Publication
Hydrogen and carbon capture and storage are pivotal to decarbonize the European energy system in a broad range of pathway scenarios. Yet their timely uptake in different sectors and distribution across countries are affected by supply options of renewable and fossil energy sources. Here we analyze the decarbonization of the European energy system towards 2060 covering the power heat and industry sectors and the change in use of hydrogen and carbon capture and storage in these sectors upon Europe’s decoupling from Russian gas. The results indicate that the use of gas is significantly reduced in the power sector instead being replaced by coal with carbon capture and storage and with a further expansion of renewable generators. Coal coupled with carbon capture and storage is also used in the steel sector as an intermediary step when Russian gas is neglected before being fully decarbonized with hydrogen. Hydrogen production mostly relies on natural gas with carbon capture and storage until natural gas is scarce and costly at which time green hydrogen production increases sharply. The disruption of Russian gas imports has significant consequences on the decarbonization pathways for Europe with local energy sources and carbon capture and storage becoming even more important. Given the highlighted importance of carbon capture and storage in reaching the climate targets it is essential that policymakers ameliorate regulatory challenges related to these value chains.
Renewable Hydrogen and Synthetic Fuels Versus Fossil Fuels for Trucking, Shipping and Aviation: A Holistic Cost Model
Aug 2023
Publication
Potential carbon neutrality of the global trucking shipping and aviation sectors by 2050 could be achieved by substituting fossil fuels with renewable hydrogen and synthetic fuels. To investigate the economic impact of fuel substitution over time a holistic cost model is developed and applied to three case studies in Norway an early adopter of carbon-neutral freight transport. The model covers the value chains from local electricity and fuel production (hydrogen ammonia Fischer–Tropsch e-fuel) to fuel consumption for long-haul trucking short-sea shipping and mid-haul aviation. The estimates are internally consistent and allow cross-mode and cross-fuel comparisons that set this work apart from previous studies more narrowly focused on a given transport mode or fuel. The model contains 150 techno-economic parameters to identify which components along the value chains drive levelized costs. This paper finds a cost reduction potential for renewable fuels of 41% to 68% until 2050 but carbon-neutral transport will suffer asymmetric cost disadvantages. Fuel substitution is most expensive in short-sea shipping followed by mid-haul aviation and long-haul trucking. Cost developments of electricity direct air capture of carbon vehicle expenses and fuel-related payload losses are significant drivers.
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